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0 Subject: RIBC 2011: Draft Rationales

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Mon, Mar 14, 2011, 22:18

This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Baseball Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

Please post your (2 round lagged) comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.

If possible, please draft your rationale at the time your are making that pick. Not only does that allow you to remember your thoughts "in the moment", but it also makes it simple to copy and paste it when it is due, avoiding unnecessary delays and/or placeholders.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. Simply post something like
for Guru
2.03 Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Bos
This makes it easy for me (or any moderator) to splice the eventual rationale in the proper place.

3. If you are providing rationales after a placeholder has been inserted for that pick, then post it in the draft discussion thread, and someone will copy it over.

4. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.

The general format should be:
1.01 Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY
Several sentences of rationale.

In addition, along with your first player rationale, please comment on your rationale for your selection of draft order.
Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.]
351Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 24, 2011, 23:13
for gurudan
22.12 Arthur Rhodes, RP, Tex
Another boss middle reliever. Led me to a 2nd place finish last year. I played football in high school with another Autie Rhodes.
352Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 24, 2011, 23:14
for Uptown Bombers
22.13 Kyle Drabek, SP, TOR
I knew I wanted to draft 6 starters so this round I began to look around at who was left that I liked. I spent most of the round convincing myself to pick UNDRAFTED but then later decided to take Drabek, who presents much more upside. Drabek was less than sensational last year after his call up, but he was a major prospect and has been pitching well this spring. Perhaps this is not the year that Drabek starts to put things together, but in round 22 the risk is minimal. If Drabek lives up the billing of his minor league numbers and reputation then I will have gotten lucky.
353Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 24, 2011, 23:14
for loki
22.14-Bobby Parnell, RP, NYM
Parnell replaced Francisco Rodriquez after his meltdown and suspension last year. If the Mets trade him or if he is injured, Parnell could close.
354Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 24, 2011, 23:15
for mjd
22.15 Chris Young, SP, NYM
With Cueto probably on the DL to start the season, I thought Iíd take a stab in the dark and draft Young to have him on hand to spot start in the cavernous Citi Field.
355Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 24, 2011, 23:16
for JKaye
22.16 David Dejesus, OF, OAK
The Oakland offense should be improved this year and I expect Dejesus will be right in the middle of it. I have a feeling he will be a stable player for me, with limited upside.

23.01 Rafael Betancourt, RP, COL

He was my top RP remaining. He won't compete for saves but his underlying numbers should benefit my pitching staff.
356Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 24, 2011, 23:17
for mjd
23.02 Jerry Hairston, Jr, OF, Was
Couldnít decide on an infielder or an outfielder for this spot, so I took the combo platter. Hairston will begin the season as the backup MI for the Nats, but Iíll use him as bench depth for OF, as well. Given enough ABs, heís capable of producing double digit HRs and SBs. Actual playing time, and replacement production will be the key to sticking with my squad vs being dropped for an undrafted waver wire flavor of the week.
357Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 24, 2011, 23:17
for loki
23.03-Macier Izturis, MI, ANA
Needed my last MI, and Izturis was the best of the least.
358Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 24, 2011, 23:18
for Uptown Bombers
23.04 Brad Hawpe, 1B/OF, SD
A late round flier for RBi and SLG. Moving to Petco will likely hurt his stats, but the splits show that Hawpe was not simply the product of Coors. Outside of last year, Hawpe has put up pretty good road OPS and power.
359Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 24, 2011, 23:18
for gurudan
23.05 Russell Martin, C, NYY
I need a backup catcher.
360Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 24, 2011, 23:19
for Slackjawed Yokel
23.06 John Buck, C, Fla
I already have Ruiz as my starting catcher, but thought I might like some insurance. Buck is a decent option, so I may be able to ride the hot hand. Buck offers more power than Ruiz but nowhere need the on base percentage.
361Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 24, 2011, 23:20
23.07 Brandon Beachy, SP, Atl
When I drafted Mike Minor, I expected him to be the 5th starter in the Braves rotation. Since then, Beachy has gotten that role instead. As an undrafted player, heís emerged faster than expected, with a good (albeit limited) spring training of 2 runs and 10 Ks in just 10 IP. Weíll see how it plays out.
362Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 00:10
for coldwater coyotes
23.08 Mark Trumbo, 1B, LAA
News about Kendrys from the Angels does not look very promising. Trumbo should get plenty ABs during the first few weeks of the season. High upside but could easily go the way of Chris Davis.
363Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 00:11
for kdl212
23.09 Joel Peralta, RP, Tam
Looking to take a flyer on one more relief pitcher who might get save opportunities or who will be a prime candidate to drop early. Kyle Farnsworth simply cannot hold the job down, and someone else will have to get a chance. Maybe it will be Peralta. And maybe he runs with it. More likely, I turn Peralta into the remarkably undrafted [undrafted] before opening day even arrives.
364Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 00:12
for filthy
23.10 Jon Niese, SP, NYM
I hope that Niese has recovered from the inning buildup last year. He started to really fade, but hopefully nothing mentally or physically was damaged when the Mets let him get hit around to end the season.

If the inning buildup gets him to top 200 innings this year, and those innings look more like the June/July version of Niese than the August/September version then I will be very happy.

But seriously, who lets a young lefty start seven times in a month?!?? They're gonna turn a potential Lilly into a Zito if they ride this kid hard again this year. Maybe Billy Beane is ahead of the curve once again though, ride those arms while they're fresh and build up their value so someone else is paying them big bucks once they break down. Either way, I don't think my team has as much to lose as the Mets do. I get to redraft next year, hopefully in the same league...

I was strongly considering Murphy, Harang and CYoung behind Gutierrez last time. If Niese didn't last, I was debating between Porcello and Cecil.

Luckily they all lasted, cause this draft has been flying! My queue is a trainwreck behind the top 3.

365Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 00:13
for ywk
23.11 Jeff Baker, 2B, ChC
Tried to get another MI here just in case. Baker could be starting 2B for Cubs and may be a flier if he can get regular at-bats.
366Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 00:14
for graydog
23.12 Michael Brantley, OF, Cle
Is going to lead off in Cleveland to start the year. If he can get on base like he has in the minors and at the end of last year should provide me with plenty of steals and runs.
367Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 00:14
for kokeshi
23.13 Danny Valencia, 3B, Min
Another flier corner guy hoping he keeps up what he showed last year and is a good value here.
368Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 11:51
for holt
23.14 Russell "the Muscle" Branyan, 1B, Ari
I don't think Arizona wanted him as a starting 1B but he's hitting like Babe Ruth this spring. I don't think he's left them much choice. I've had Branyan on a lot of teams before and he's a good one to start as long as he's healthy. It's recently been announced that he made the team, but it's not yet clear how many AB's he'll get. I need CI depth so I'll take a shot here.
369Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 11:52
for s R
23.15 Mark Lowe, RP, Tex
Digging for saves... If Feliz is taken out of the closer role for the regular season...
370Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 11:53
for MBT
23.16 Thole, Josh, C, NYM
Heís been named the starting catcher with the Mets and heís been raking all spring. Heís not a power bat, but at catcher Iím just looking for someone who can provide a good OBP and maybe get 50 runs and 50 RBIs. I always end up with 50 games of unused playing time at the catcher position so I like to pick up a second catcher to start on off days.

24.01 Garland, Jon, SP, LAD
Nothing fancy, just a NL West pitcher in a pitcher friendly home park. Heíll be a spot starter for me, but he should be good for 15 wins, 130 K, and 3.70 ERA. His WHIP leaves a lot to be desired as it is traditionally over 1.30, but once again at this point in the draft I can always go swimming in the FA pool.
371Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 11:54
for s R
24.02 Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, Bos
He is penciled in as the starting catcher for the Red Sox for the season. Since he will bat in the bottom of a stacked lineup he will get RBI opportunities with the players above him on base.
372Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 11:55
for holt
24.03 Brent Morel, 3B, ChW
Kind of like Brett Wallace. Decent prospect with a starting job, decent minor league stats, but doesn't take enough walks. I really don't expect him to pan out and I'm not planning on being very patient with him.
373Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 11:56
for kokeshi
24.04 Juan Miranda, 1B, Ari
Was hoping to get some late round power at 1st, if Branyon gets injured (which is not unlikely) Miranda should get close to full starting time.
374Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 11:56
for graydog
24.05 R.A. Dickey, SP, NYM
I think that if Dickey was not a knuckballer he would have been drafted earlier. Doesnt strike out many but if he can locate that knuckler the way he did last year he should be useful in era and whip, if not someone on the waiver wire will be added.
375Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 11:57
for ywk
24.06 Alberto Callaspo, 3B, LAA
Similar to Baker, he could be earning the starting gig in Anaheim and could provide decent OBP and some SB theoretically. Another flier here I guess.
376Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 11:58
for filthy
24.07 Rick Porcello, SP, Det
Just covering bases I guess. Last round I went with the guy who faded in September. This round, I'll go with the guy who had a nice September. 28IP, 2BB!!

The K's might even show up as Porcello gains confidence and experience. The pedigree is there, and there is much less pressure this time around now that Scherzer has arrived and leapfrogged him.

377Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 11:58
for kdl212
24.08 Carlos Guillen, 2B, Det
Never mind. Now Carlos Guillen will be the first person I drop, as soon as I can, in order to pick up the remarkably undrafted [undrafted]. When I was making the pick, I was looking for a backup 2B, but I think I'm just going all-in on Beckham.
378Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 11:59
for coldwater coyotes
24.09 Jeff Niemann, SP, Tam
His ranking has gone this year as a result of last year's injury. He could well take a large step forward in 2011. Another SP with good upside potential.
379Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 11:59
24.10 Santiago Casilla, RP, SF

Itís looking like both of my bay area closers (Wilson and Anderson) may start the season on the shelf. I also have Sergio Romo, but itís sounding more like he may remain in a setup role, with either Casilla or Affeldt getting the Wilson-less save opps.

Just trying to avoid going 0-for-April in saves.
380mjd
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 501381415
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 16:47
for Yokel:

24.11 Garrett Jones OF, PIT
It sounds like Jones may be the odd man out in Pittsburgh. His numbers did show a big decline after earning every-day duties a year ago. I like that he's eligible at CI and OF, so offers me some flexibility. He may be in a platoon situation, which may be something I can take advantage of as well. Nothing wrong with selecting a guy at these late stages who had helped me out in the past.
381mjd
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 501381415
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 16:50
For gurudan:

24.12 Mark DeRosa OF, SFO
In previous years he's been productive. He's versatile, so hope he's recovered from injuries.
382mjd
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 501381415
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 16:53
For Uptown Bombers:

24.13 Kevin Jepsen RP, LAA
At this point, the draft was moving too fast for to keep pace. I set a queue for round 23 but had no clue what players I was targeting after that. After a flurry of picks, I had no time before or during work to figure things out. I knew I wanted another MR and just took one that came to mind as having good K rates.
383mjd
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 501381415
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 16:56
For loki:

24.14 Matt Belisle RP, COL
As with 22.14 I wanted a RP who would close if an injury occurred to the starter. Houston Street has this history, and if injured, Belise should close.
384mjd
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 501381415
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 16:58
24.15 Will Rhymes 2B, DET

Apparently Rhymes will begin the season as the starting 2B for the Tigers. How long he keeps it remains to be seen. Heíll bat in the 2 hole and if he posts a decent OBP, he will score plenty of runs and contribute a few SBs. Can never have too many options at MI.
385mjd
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 501381415
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:02
For JKay:

24.16 Kerry Wood RP, CHC
Wood had a very good 2nd half for NYY last year and will now serve as set-up man for Marmol (along with Marshall). Would not surprise me to see him contribute a handful of W and SV, and hopefully his WHIP stays low enough to make it worth it.

25.01 Derek Lowe SP, ATL
Lowe is a reliable starter slated to pitch opening day for Atlanta. It's the 25th round so that is about as much reason as I need.
387mjd
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 501381415
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:06
25.02 Ryan Hanigan, C, CIN

With (undrafted., old, and oft injured) on the team, who knows how many ABs Hanigan will get per week. This will be my second consecutive season drafting a catcher in the last round and once again I may be playing musical catchers, but it worked last year, so why no?. Hanigan does sport a decent career OBP number and could very well hang around for a while.
388Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:06
for loki
25.03-Ryan Ludwick, OF, SD
It was between another RP who would take over if the starting closer was injured and someone to help my anemic power categories. I am hoping for a bounce back season from Ludwick. If he can come close to his 2008 and 2009 seasons, he will be a bargain in the 25th round.
389Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:07
for Uptown Bombers
25.04 Chris Davis, 1B, TEX
Iíve been keeping an eye on him ever since my Mitch Moreland pick because I research that, I read how well Davis was playing in the spring. As of now, he has no spot in the lineup, but any of a few things could change that: Young gets traded, Moreland struggles, UNDRAFTED gets replaced. Since Iím just trying to take a stab in the dark at cheap power numbers, I figured this pick made some sense.
390Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:08
for gurudan
25.05 Cody Ross, OF, SF
With 2 trades i'll own the entire frisco team.
391Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:08
for Slackjawed Yokel
25.06 Desmond Jennings, OF, TB
I took a flyer here on a guy currently in the minors. He stole 37 bases and reached base at a .362 clip in AAA last year. Whether I hold on to him by the time he gets called up midyear will depend on the health of the rest of my roster.
392Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:09
25.07 Jeremy Affeldt, RP, SF
[repeat of 24.10]
Itís looking like both of my bay area closers (Wilson and Anderson) may start the season on the shelf. I also have Sergio Romo, but itís sounding more like he may remain in a setup role, with either Casilla or Affeldt getting the Wilson-less save opps.

Just trying to avoid going 0-for-April in saves.
393Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:09
for coldwater coyotes
25.08 Sean Burnett, RP, Was
There are reports that Burnett could be used as a co-closer. Worth taking a gamble on in round 25.
394Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:10
for kdl212
25.09 Jim Thome, DH, MIN
Absurd numbers last year at the age of 63. (1.039 OPS! 48 runs and 59 RBI in 275 at-bats!) Since I own Morneau, and it's not clear he's going to be an everyday player in April if he's even on the roster, maybe Thome gets regular at-bats. I suspect that he is really Jacob's other friend, the "Man in the DH slot," and he will agelessly crush baseballs every year for the next 1,000 years.

Nearly drafted [undrafted] and [undrafted], each of whom I was shocked to still see available when I, for the first time this draft, looked through the entire list before making this pick. I was relying on the fact that you all are much more thorough about this, with updating spreadsheets and whatnot, and that no one had slipped through any cracks. I think I was wrong.

395Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:11
for filthy
25.10 Brett Cecil, SP, Tor
And back to the September fades. Not as good as Niese but nearly the same story. Lower K's and facing tougher offenses, but wasn't abused as badly. And (please please please!!!!) with a much better offense supporting him again this year.

Cecil has been roughly matching David Price's career, one year later, all throughout their rises. I hope the trend continues.

Love the Thome pick, I went with him in the last round last year, and it would've paid off if I wasn't impatient. Was debating also on: Norris, Arencibia, Johan, DiceK.

Nice drafting everybody. Fun times.

PS: Go check out Seattle Zen's rationales in one of the AAA leagues, excellent reads.

396Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:12
for ywk
25.11 Phil Coke, RP, Det
Would he be another C.J. Wilson? or just be one of the players I put on the waiver wire this season? Actually, on many occassions I was clueless in the draft, which may be evidenced by many of my selections including this one.
397Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:13
for graydog
25.12 Michael Gonzalez, RP, Bal
Needed another RP.
398Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:13
for kokeshi
25.13 Yadier Molina, C, StL
Needed another catcher for when Napoli sits on the bench, I thought Molina would be the best bet left to play regularly.
399Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:14
for holt
25.14 Wilson Betemit, 3B, KC
He's only eligible at 3B right now, but he may pick up some more positions by the end of the year. He doesn't have a regular starting role, but his OPS was pushing .900 in over 300 PA last season. He plays for the Royals. They will need to get his bat in the lineup somehow. He's fairly versatile and the Royals have some sh*t hitters so I'm thinking he should get over 300 AB again.

It's hard to take any of these late rd picks seriously. Looking back through rationales of previous years, the vast majority never pan out, and the ones that do usually get cut early and picked up by another team before it's clear that they're having a good year.

400Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:14
for s R
25.15 Bud Norris, SP, Hou
If he can get his ERA down into the low fours, The 'Stros view Norris as a workhorse for there.
401Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 17:15
for MBT
25.16 Mike Moustakas, 3B, KC
Here he is, Mr. Irrelevant, well I hope not anyhow. The guy hit 36 HR last season in the minors and the Royals can only keep this kid down for so long. I expect to see him up by late May and I could use the backup at 3B considering A-Rod's injury history. If he doesn't get called up or I need the spot earlier than expected I can always drop him for a more established player. I debated between him and another player who's starting on the DL, but Mous has the higher upside.
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