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Subject: Crazy R/ER Difference
Posted by: KrazyKoalaBears
- [12353217] Sun, Apr 10, 2011, 15:50
There are a lot of reasons not to trust a pitcher's ERA as a true representation of the effectiveness of the pitcher, but this has to be one of the more extreme examples I've ever seen... and it calls into question more than just the pitcher.
I'm watching the Auburn/Kentucky college baseball game this afternoon. It's the top of the 7th inning, runners on first and third, two out. Kentucky brings in freshman reliever Trevor Gott. They show his stats and I see a 0.44 ERA. The announcer mentions the ERA, then says that Gott has allowed 11 runs. I do a double take, thinking I heard something wrong, but I didn't. Here's Gott's stats as he entered the game...
1-3, 20.1 IP, 22 H, 11 R, 1 ER, 13 BB, 23 K, 0.44 ERA, 1.721 WHIP, 1 WP, 3 HBP
I'm thinking about how crazy this stat line is and he starts pitching.
The first he faces slaps a single up the middle and a runner scores (charged to previous pitcher). Runners are left on first and third.
The next batter hits the ball hard and the third baseman misses the catch. The ball goes into the outfield, the runner on third scores, and runners are left on second and third.
Now I'm thinking to myself that this can't be real. Here's a guy who has a 11:1 R:ER ratio and because of the third baseman's error, every runner he's responsible for will be an unearned run if they score because the inning should have been over.
Sure enough, the next batter singles up the middle and two runners score, both unearned.
The next batter ends the inning, but Gott now has the following stats at the end of the 7th inning:
20.2 IP, 13 R, 1 ER, 0.44 ERA
But it doesn't stop there!
In the top of the 8th inning, Gott faced 4 batters. The first singled, the second reached on a fielding error, the third singled, and the fourth struck out.
Gott was then replaced and the next batter reaches on a (you guessed it) fielding error. Two of Gott's runners score and they're both unearned! That's 4 runs, 0 earned runs just today!
His stat line after today...
21.0 IP, 15 R, 1 ER, 0.43 ERA
After coming into the game with a ridiculous 11:1 R:ER ratio and 0.44 ERA, the guy allows 4 runs in 0.2 IP and lowers his ERA!
If all those runs were earned, his ERA would be 6.43.
Grated, it's only 21.0 IP, but have you ever seen a pitcher's R and ER so crazy different? |
| 1 | holt
ID: 3044420
Mon, Apr 11, 2011, 03:15
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Funny. Have to watch for updates on this.
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| 2 | JKaye
Leader
ID: 01372359
Sat, Jun 04, 2011, 21:28
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Gott now has 25 R, 11 ER since KKB's last update, meaning his last 10 runs are earned.
The 1985 Houston Astros allowed 16 runs to the Mets on July 27, ALL of of them unearned.
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| 4 | JKaye
Leader
ID: 01372359
Sun, Jun 05, 2011, 12:05
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Should read: 25 R, 11 ER on the season
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| 5 | weykool
ID: 53530517
Sun, Jun 05, 2011, 18:43
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I always thought they should give half a run to the starter and the reliever.
It takes 2 events to score a run:
Getting on base.
Getting knocked in.
(HR's excluded)
How many time have we seen a reliever come in with 2 outs, bases loaded and give up a bases clearing double followed by an out.
3 runs scored....no damage to the ERA.
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| 6 | Da Bomb
ID: 508161517
Sun, Jun 05, 2011, 18:56
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That is why other stats exist, such as WHIP. Coming into that type of situation is very difficult.
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| 7 | Perm Dude
ID: 5510572522
Sun, Jun 05, 2011, 21:13
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#5: Exactly. Inherited runners scored should be a stat much more talked about for relievers--especially MRs.
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