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0 Subject: RIBC 2013: Draft rationales

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Fri, Mar 15, 2013, 12:03

This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Baseball Challenge to provide the rationale for each pick.

Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)

2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.

Please post your (2 round lagged) comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and I can copy it over to the proper sequence.

If possible, please draft your rationale at the time your are making that pick. Not only does that allow you to remember your thoughts "in the moment", but it also makes it simple to copy and paste it when it is due, avoiding unnecessary delays and/or placeholders.

If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. Simply post something like

for Guru
1.14 Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Mia

This makes it easy for me (or any moderator) to splice the eventual rationale in the proper place.

3. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.

The general format should be:
1.01 Mike Trout, OF, LAA
Several sentences of rationale.

In addition, along with your first player rationale, please comment on your rationale for your selection of draft order.
Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.]
337 Tosh
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 057721710
† † † Wed, Mar 27, 2013, 12:18
for tilt
22.12 Hanson, Tommy SP LAA
My draft is starting to go on autopilot. I am not able to dedicate a lot of time to fishing out any last gems in the trash. Hanson is my 6th starter and has some upside. He COULD go back to how he was when he first came up and be a strong K guy with good peripherals on a good team with some wins. Or he COULD be what he appears to be, barely mediocre. Will see how it goes and spot start him to see if I can win the lottery.
338 Tosh
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 057721710
† † † Wed, Mar 27, 2013, 12:19
for uptown
22.13 Rosenthal, Trevor RP STL
Young, K potential, could be line for saves if a few things go wrong, could emerge as a starter with an injury: all these factors made me consider Rosenthal as a sleeper pick in round 23. Iíd be happy with the emergence of a dominant set-up man that we saw last year. If something more comes of him, itís a bonus.
339Tosh
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 057721710
† † † Wed, Mar 27, 2013, 12:20
Pick 22.14 ~ Jonny Venters, RP, ATL
Heís been a pretty darn good setup guy the past three seasons and is a handcuff for my closer, Kimbrel. 10.5 K/9, 2.50 ERA, and 1.25 WHIP are very realistic expectations.

Edit - Dang it. Just a few hours after drafting Venters, he left the game with an elbow issue. Now Venters is most likely to be waived first.
340 Tosh
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 057721710
† † † Wed, Mar 27, 2013, 12:21
foe evan
22.15 Wells, Vernon OF LAA
I was debating Nunez or Wells during my last pick. I canít believe Wells lasted all the way back to me. I understand Wells is a shell of his former self, but he is now the starting LF for the Yankees. This is the kind of guy who can provide all the counting stats if given 300-400 at bats. As I explained with my last pick of Nunez, the Yankees are so riddled with injuries I can see him getting so much playing time. I could be getting a OF who can provide 20-25 HRs, 60-70 RBI, 50 Runs, and 5-9 SB even with a poor average. Iíll gladly take that in the 22nd round. If he doesnít do it, oh well, heís my bench outfielder at the start of the season.
341 Tosh
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 057721710
† † † Wed, Mar 27, 2013, 12:22
for dabomb
22.16 Parmelee, Chris 1B MIN
This league is so deep. I find myself looking at projected starting lineups for a second time to see what/ if any players are available I don't despise.

Parmelee owned minor league pitching last year, and also performed well in a late season call-up in 2011, but really struggled in the majors in 2012. He's entering this season as the everyday RF, so we'll see if he's ready to be a productive major leaguer yet. I also considered Jordany Valdespin, but I already had 6 OFs.

23.01 Bedard, Erik SP HOU
I'm not really a fan of drafting late round run of the mill SPs. Sure, some will make out fine, but many will not be serviceable and I'd wait 1-2 starts first to see if I felt comfortable using them. I decide to take a flier on Bedard who at least has the potential (albeit how small) to be better than run of the mill. Bedard was a guy I used to target in that he was an asset when healthy, but then last year happened where he a complete bum. Nevertheless, all hope is not lost just yet as his K/rate was still great.

342 Tosh
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 057721710
† † † Wed, Mar 27, 2013, 12:23
for evan
23.02 Gee, Dillon SP NYM
Gee willickers, he is having a horrendous spring! Good thing I donít give much consideration to spring stats. Before his blood clot caused him to miss most of the 2012 season, Gee was enjoying a breakout season. He had great strikeout/walk rates and has a good WHIP. I have a gut feeling with Gee and I could see him being the best pitcher on the Mets. He was my #1 SP available and I needed to fill in another spot in my rotation.
343Tosh
† † † Leader
† † † ID: 057721710
† † † Wed, Mar 27, 2013, 12:24
Pick 23.03 ~ Josh Donaldson, 3B, OAK
I realized that I only have one player that can play 3B, and I better get a backup. It looks like heís got a steady job which is all I can ask for at pick # 355. Some people may have been scared away from his 1-20 Spring Training batting start. I prefer to focus on the 15-30 that followed it up.
344Uptown Bombers
† † † ID: 81262014
† † † Wed, Mar 27, 2013, 13:47
23.04 Jordany Valdespin, OF, NYM

On Monday night I strolled into my local sports bar, where the bartender is the biggest Dodgers fan I know. We got to talking baseball and by the time I left, he had me convinced that I had to draft Yasiel Puig. Upon further reflection on Tuesday morning, I decided to go with Valdespin, who at least has a spot in the line-up to start the season. He should pick up 2B eligibility shortly into the season, which helps, and offers a nice combination of speed and power in round 23. As a Mets fan, Iíll be able to watch him daily and pull the cord if he is not getting it done. Shortly after writing this rationale I read that Puig has been sent to Double-A.
345Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:11
for Tilt23
23.05 JP Arencibia, C, Tor
With Carlos Ruiz my reg catcher out on suspension til end of april I need a fill in. JP will hit and is moving the the middle of the order 5th I think while lawrie is out. I will play him and hope he gets off on a hot start to rid out until Ruiz is back.
346 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:12
for kokeshis
23.06 Jason Vargas, SP, LAA
I just needed an innings eater that didn't kill era or whip, Vargas should pick up some wins with the Angel offense behind him.
347 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:12
for JKaye
23.07 Bud Norris, SP, Hou
A very high K pitcher who seems to be knocking on the door every year but never puts it together. Wins will be hard to come by but anyone missing this many bats has a chance to go up a level and he is still very young.
348Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:13
for kdl212
23.08 Phil Coke, RP, Det
There's no way Rondon doesn't melt down in April. He may not lose the job, but there will be a handful of save opportunities elsewhere. Maybe Coke gets 2-3.
349Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:14
for Jeffg
23.09 Mike Adams, RP, Phi
With my only 3B hurt to start the season I need to pick another one, but figured I'd wait another 12 hours or so and one more round to see if the Braves 3B situation gets better defined. So went with another middle reliever with a decent K rate. Adams has been a holds machine leading the league by a wide margin over the last 3 season so he seemed like as good a reliable choice as anyone left.
350 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:15
for blue hen
23.10 Tyler Flowers, C, CWS
Catcher is deeeeeeeeep. I had expected to get AJ Ellis or Alex Avila for this spot, but both went while I was worried about other problems. Flowers is fine - I actually rostered him for a long time in G20, when he alternated with AJ Pierzynski for playing time. He's no Buster Posey, but it's a lot later in the game.
351Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:15
for mailedfoot
23.11 David DeJesus, OF, ChC
DeJesus starts the year as the Cubs centerfielder and he has the ability to contribute a little in all five categories. I like his OBP skills and figured he could turn out to be a nice pick for this late in the draft.
352 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:16
for dpr
23.12 James Loney, 1B, Tam
To make up for my last pick I still needed a 1b and I think this is the only guy left who will get ABs. That said the guy sucks. Hopefully Ortiz comes back soon.
353Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:17
for RotoGuru Lr.
23.13 AJ Ellis, C, LAD
I love when a plan comes together! Once I drafted McCann I was eyeing AJ Ellis as my guy to fill in until McCann is healthy and on days that McCann doesnt play. I love that Ellis is a high OBP guy (.373 last year) so that I feel no guilt throwing him in on off days and my ratios wont take a hit. It is just a bonus that he seems to be having a great spring.
354Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:18
23.14 Edinson Volquez, SP, SD
In 2012, a 2.95 ERA, a strikeout per inning, and a .208 BAA Ė at home in Petco. On the road,Ö not so much. Will plan to use him as a situational starter at home or against weaker teams. Walks too many batters, but also induces a lot of ground balls. May want to check wind conditions as well, as gopheritis is a concern. Also, moving in and shortening the fences at Petco may torpedo this strategy sooner than later.
355Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:19
for artofmonk
23.15 Jason Hammel, SP, Bal
At this stage of the draft, I thought my queue would get the player I wanted. I thought I had Volquez, Edinson for sure. I think he is a good pickup at this point of the draft. Autopick was set for him and had Hammel next. I think he does have an upside with this pick on a much improved BAL team.
356Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:20
for bmd
23.16 Yasiel Puig, OF, LAD
He's hitting the cover off the ball this spring but there's no spot for him in the majors right now. He's mainly just a longshot pick that one of the LAD's gets hurt in the first few weeks. If they do then Puig could very well be called up.

24.01 Pete Kozma, SS STL
I needed another MI that wasn't going to start in the minors. Kozma hit really well when he was called up and is hitting well this spring. His minor league numbers are completely the opposite. Praying that he's one of the super rare guys that hits better in the majors than they did in the minors.
357Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:21
for artofmonk
24.02 Ellis, Mark, 2b, LA
I thought I might want to get a little insurance for MI. He probably should be on the WW, I think the Dodgers will score some runs and hopefully he will benefit. He could be a surprise.
358Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:21
24.03 Andrew Cashner, SP, SD
Time to speculate. High upside, potential bust. Throws in the mid-to-upper 90s, GB% around 50%. Good home park. The downside is health and durability. Not yet assured of a rotation slot, but worth a gambit in round 24, even if he starts in long relief.
359Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:22
for RotoGuru Jr.
24.04 Ervin Santana, SP, KC
I was between Cashner and Santana and someone finally made it easy for me by making the decision for me. Santana has had multiple individual seasons with a great deal of success and is in a contract year. His spring numbers are looking good and I like the Royals this year.
360 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:23
for dpr
24.05 Chris Young, OF, OAK
I think I have taken this guy in the 5th round of thse drafts in the past. He will struggle ith OBP but should give me decent counting stats considering how late I was able to draft him.
361Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:23
for mailedfoot
24.06 Nolan Reimold, OF, Bal
If he can stay healthy, Reimold could be a nice sleeper pick. He has hit well in the past and should get plenty of ABs as either an outfielder or DH to begin the season. My outfield is getting a little crowded with this pick, but felt Reimold's potential is worth it.
362 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:24
for blue hen
24.07 Billy Hamilton, SS, Cin
On the off chance he gets called up sometime this season, I look forward to his 20 steals in 8 games. Maybe HE can be the answer to my middle infield problems.
363Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:25
for JeffG
24.08 Chris Johnson, 3B, Atl
My only third baseman, David Freese, is starting the season on the DL so I need a fill in, hopefully only short term. Johnson has been in one of the more interesting and closely contested position battles this spring for Chipper Jones old spot, and certainly has the spring numbers to lock down the job outright except for the fact his competition for the position is putting up equally good spring numbers. Since the word today now is that the Braves are going to start the season with a platoon at third, I'm guessing that Johnson will see more at bats and maybe keeps playing at the same high level early in the season as he tries to prove he is worthy of the playing time.
364Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:26
for kdl212
24.09 Jake McGee, RP, Tam
Elite ratios.
365 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:26
for JKaye
24.10 Jamey Carroll, 2B, Min
Carroll is a great fit here with multiple pos eligibility and provides insurance for some of the riskier players (Berkman, Roberts).
366 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:27
for kokeshis
24.11 Joe Blanton, SP, LAA
Just like real baseball teams who pick up Joe Blanton he is just an innings eater at the back of my rotation to pitch every 5th day.
367Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:27
for Tilt23
24.12 Sean Doolittle, RP, OAK
Another high K reliever that I am looking to add some strikeouts. I think he is next in line if Balfour is ineffective even though most think it will be ryan cook. I just donít think they like cook as a closer but that is just a hunch based on what ive seen and read. Even if he doesnít get a save im pretty sure he will play on my team regularly
368Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:28
for Uptown Bombers
24.13 Aaron Crow, RP, KC
Between this pick and Herrera in round 20, I would be wise to start crafting a Greg Holland voodoo doll and sticking pins into its elbow. If that doesnít work, Crow offers some K help and decent ratios.
369Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:29
for Tosh
24.14 ~ Juan Francisco, 3B, ATL
I don't know much about this guy. He is the lefty-hitter of a 3B-platoon. He's got some power. And he is on the new Yahoo 'sleepers' page. I'll add him for now.
370Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:29
for Evan
Pick 24.15 Scott Downs, RP, LAA
Wanted another reliever on my squad, preferably one who could back up the closer I have. I was hoping Crow would fall to me to back up Holland but he went two picks before me. I went with Downs. I already have stock in Frieri and the Angels already announced that the situation is closer by committee. Maybe Iíll pick up a few saves from Downs if Frieri A: isnít the guy or B: shares the closer role. My save situation isnít as good as Iíd like it to be, and Iím really banking that Madsen struggles or doesnít come back. If that is the case, I like the two Angels relievers I have.
371Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:31
for Da Bomb
24.16 Ross Detwiler, SP, WAS
I'd like another pitcher because I only have 8 to this point. Detwiler had very solid ratios last year (3.40 ERA 1.22 WHIP, 2.84 ERA at home) and was similarly productive in 2011 so there is a track record.

25.01 Travis Hafner, DH, NYY

The end of the line for Hafner and he definitely won't play a full season, but he can still be an asset in this league. "Only" had a .798 vs RHP last season, but was .886 in 2011. Maybe going to a contender(??) will help rejuvenate him some as it did to Ichiro, and I'm sure he doesn't mind the short right field porch.
372Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:31
for Evan
Pick 25.02 Scott Sizemore, 3B, OAK
Started off the draft with a 3B and didnít take another one until now. I really like this pick to finish my draft. Why not take a flier on a potential starting infielder? Sizemore has very quietly been forgotten after an ACL injury. He was expected to share time with Donaldson but 2B Weeks and SS Nakajima have been sent down to AAA. That puts Lowrie at SS and gives Sizemore the chance to have the 2B job. Since my team is also weak at 2B/MI, Sizemore should get 2B eligibility on top of the 3B he already has. He almost slugs .400, has a .330 OBP, and can get me some nice counting stats all across the board. Overall, I think this is an under the radar pick with upside.
373Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:32
for Tosh
25.03 ~ Wade Davis, SP, KC
Davis was a mostly-blah starting pitcher for Tampa for a couple years, then saw good success as a middle reliever in 2012. Maybe he'll carry some of that success forward to a starting role with Kansas City.
374Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:32
for Uptown Bombers
25.04 Mike Carp, 1B/OF. BOS
Yikes, there were not many batters available I liked and none at SS, my largest need. I opted for Carp, who offers some positional flexibility and is expected to get some early playing time. Iíve had Carp for portions of the last two years and he has proven serviceable for short periods of time. Maybe I can get something out of him by playing the early matchups.
375Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:33
for Tilt23
25.05 Wilton Lopez, RP, COL
Another set up man. This one described as the cliff lee of RP. I needed some help in whip so ill take the 50 IP at a 1.00 WHIP. He is also next in line to close and the rockies will be sellers this year and Betancourt has a favorable contract and will be easy to move. This could be a sneaky play for saves if im patient.
376 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:33
for kokeshis
25.06 Cody Ross, OF, Ari
Ross had a really good last year and is moving to a good hitter's park. I think he will give me more solid production than grabbing some high upside rookie with my last pick.
377 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:34
for JKaye
25.07 Chris Iannetta, C, LAA
Iannetta profiles well in an OBP league and since my C, Carlos Santana is eligible at 1B/CI, I figured I'd roster a catcher who could afford me some additional roster flexibility and insurance against injuries to the aforementioned players I mentioned in the prior rationale.
378Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:34
for kdl212
25.08 Santiago Casilla, RP, SF
SF has always been careful with Romo, and he's looked pretty bad this spring, so maybe all those sliders have caught up with his elbow. Casilla was serviceable last year, and would, at the least, be the right-handed half of a closer committee.
379Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:35
for JeffG
25.09 Luke Scott, OF, TB
Just another potential bat to stock the bench. Tampa's DH provides good SLG and decent OBP support and his usefulness and ability to help the counting numbers will depend mostly on his manager (both Joe Maddon and me) deciding his playing time.
380 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:36
for blue hen
25.10 Rex Brothers, RP, Col
He's a pretty clear backup to the aging Betancourt in Colorado. Looking at relievers who went much earlier, I'm happy to get Brothers with this pick.
381Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:36
for mailedfoot
25.11 Jordan Pacheco, 1B, Col
Pacheco becomes my backup at the CI positions. He is a utility guy for the Rockies but figures to get a fair amount of playing time. He makes for a nice play against lefties and I like that he gets half his games in the Rockies park.
382 Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:37
for dpr
22.12 Chad Billingsley, SP, LAD
Was looking for some innings with my last pick. Billingsley had a solid season last year after some rough years but I am hopeful h can keep it up.
383Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 10:58
for RotoGuru Jr.
25.13 Darren O'Day, RP, Bal
Anyone I draft at this point is highly likely to be dropped, so I might as well pick up someone who can be somewhat beneficial and easy to drop. O'Day has great ratios and could pick up a wayward win or save here or there until someone worthy of a pickup comes along. Best case scenario is Jim Johnson gets hurt or is ineffective and the Orioles give O'Day the job. The other option was picking up someone like Grandal or A-Rod and waiting til they are healthy, but I expect to need to drop them before I can reap the rewards of my patience.
384Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 11:02
25.14 Eric OíFlaherty, RP, Atl
Just a set up man who has been pretty dependable over the last few years. Hopefully heíll help keep my pitching ratios under control. Any vultured saves or wins is gravy.
385Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 11:03
for artofmonk
25.15 Quintana, Jose, SP CWS
Took a complete flyer here. #5 for the CWS. He could move up in the rotation and could produce some good K's. I read a short article about his upside and said why not. 2nd to last pick in the draft so he is almost Mr. Irrelevant.
386Guru
† † † ID: 330592710
† † † Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 11:04
for bmd
25.16 Matt Adams, 1b, STL
Another fill in guy that'll probably be dropped barring some injury to Craig/Beltran/Holliday. He can mash but won't see but 1-2 starts a week. Would've taken Ervin Santana or Blanton with my 2nd to last pick if I knew neither would've made it back to me.
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