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Subject: RIBC 2013: Draft Recap
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Wed, Mar 27, 2013, 16:10
RIBC Managers: This thread is for your (optional) overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say.
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Non-managers are also free to post comments or ask questions. |
| 1 | Evan
ID: 21352010
Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 11:23
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1) My strategy consisted of 3 main parts; drafting hitters early while waiting on pitching, drafting hitters with high OBP, and grabbing a catcher/closers/relievers late. I drafted hitters in my first 5 rounds and loved those picks. I was especially happy to take Freeman at 5. I grabbed my first starters in rounds 6 (Moore), 7 (Latos), and 10 (Lester) and love them as anchors in my rotation. I am a firm believer in waiting on pitching. It isn’t as consistent as people think and I’d rather have an elite hitter than someone like Strasburg or Kershaw.
My second strategy of drafting players with high OBP worked pretty well for me. Let me run down what the expected OBP is for my hitters; .405, .366, .388, .369, .354, .350, .326, .335, .327, .331, .336, .317, .316, .291 (ouch), .333. I think I succeeded pretty well here with a couple exceptions. My theory (and it isn’t a revelation) is that I want my players to be on base as much as possible whether they are power hitters or base stealing singles hitters. It’s pretty simple. They will accrue more stats.
Finally, I have mixed results with my 3rd strategy. I succeeded in grabbing my catcher late, in the 17th round. Lucroy has an average ADP of #166 and I got him at #258? Catching is deep and guys like Lucroy, Avila, Doumit, and Ellis get overlooked time and time again. As far as grabbing closers late, I picked my first one very early and I’m glad I did. This league forces my hand in grabbing a closer early as they get dried up so quickly. And the fact that 16% of the players chosen were relievers, picking is slim after a draft. I’m still very weak at the closer position with only Holland is the established closer. I have Frieri/Downs to hold down the fort until/if Madsen comes back. Not very happy with that situation.
2) My favorite picks were Freeman at 5.02, Lester at 10.15, and Ichiro at 14.15. Freeman COULD jump into top 15 status by next season. Love his growth as a hitter and that lineup can mash. I was very surprised Lester fell to pick 159. He had an awful 2012 but his track record is fantastic. I really think it was a one year aberration. Ichiro is an everyday player for the Yankees and will bat at the top of the lineup. He seemed reinvigorated after coming to New York last season and love the counting stats he will provide (HRs notwithstanding).
The only pick I would redo would be in round 16 where I picked Wade Miley. I like the pitcher but in retrospect, I could have waited longer for another SP. At this point, I needed an official 2B or another reliever with closing potential. I thought the reliever run was closing but it wasn’t.
3) The teams that I think had the best draft were Foot’s Acrobats and Da Bomb Squad (Honorable mention to Smith and 9th). Foot’s Acrobats has the perfect balance of offense and pitching. I like his infield and Gonzalez/Jones in the OF. His pitching staff doesn’t have the most popular names but I like Gallardo, Peavy, and Zimmerman. His team most reminds me of my own. I love Da Bomb Squads middle infield of Zobrist and Hill. Going INF early he was still able to nab bats like Trout, Encarnacion and Martinez. His staff is anchored by Wainwright and Shields and I like Pettitte and Detwiler (Bedard… yuck!). He also has stock in 3 closers to start the season. Good drafts by these teams.
4) I was surprised how after the closer run, a ton of relief pitchers were still taken! It really altered my strategy and I had to reach for relievers a lot earlier than I thought. I was very uncomfortable with that.
5) Looking back at the draft, I wouldn’t change a thing. I absolutely love my team for a 16-team league and drafting against such an intelligent group of owners. All 15 of you make this league so damn challenging because you all know your baseball. I accomplished what I set out to achieve in this draft and have no complaints. Let the games begin and see if my confidence is validated.
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| 2 | beastiemiked
ID: 38255111
Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 15:11
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1. Hitters early and wait on pitching. Didn't exactly work. Seemed like a few other teams had the same strategy so some of the pitchers slipped. Decided to take one of the top tier pitchers with Hamels since he was one of the last of that tier left. Then when Scherzer was available at 81 there's no way I could pass on him there with his k rate. So kinda failed on my strategy
2. Fav picks: Bryce in the 1st, AJax 5th, Scherzer 6th, Simmons 11th, Marte 14th, Dempster 19th, and Smoak 20th.
Do overs: Posey in the 2nd. Should've went with Reyes here even though he's in my only other league, Lawrie 4th. Should've went with just about anyone but Lawrie there. By far my worst pick. Hamels 3td. Liked it at the time but would've picked a hitter if I knew Max Scherzer was falling to me in the 6th. Adam Dunn 12th. Matt Adams 25th. Not bad time for a flyer but there's a guy I wanted a few rounds earlier that I completely forgot about that was still available here.
3. I don't have to look over the teams to know that any team that got a top 3 pick has a good team. They have a HUGE advantage barring injury or suspension to their top guy.
4. How early some middle infielders were drafted.
5. Yeah, win the lottery ;) I have a couple of terrible picks so obviously would redo those. If I had taken Reyes over Posey my team would look so much better right now. Other than that not much.
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| 3 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 16:37
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My strategy is always the same. Draft hitters who draw walks, and favor closers over starting pitchers to an extreme. Also tend to draft somewhat injured players or high risk upside players. This year, that is exactly what I did. 3 SP, 7 RP. Wright, Greinke, Jeter, Francisco on the mend. Oscar Taveras and Billy Hamilton. Werth, Bautista, and even Everth Cabrera, who overindex on the walks.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Love getting Everth Cabrera. Actually, David Wright was a good one since I didn't have to worry about 3B for the entire draft. Very happy where I got Axford and Rivera. Wish I'd taken at least one top MI early on.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Drafting next to JeffG is never fun. He took all my players and might have the best team. Also really like JKaye, BMD, and jaydog's teams.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The late SP run and the late closer run. Both were much later than I ever remember. Top closers still around in the 8th and 9th. Also, surprised there wasn't more complaining about kokeshis - I think he took more time to draft than any six other managers put together. Set a queue, buddy.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I might not have picked #10. Maybe it was being near JeffG but for the first 6 rounds, I felt like I was poorly positioned. And I would have taken a top middle infielder.
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| 4 | artofmonk
ID: 342291221
Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 17:53
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
What strategy? Picking at end of a round you need react or start a run. I knew picking 15th I was going to be left with the Stud SP's and quite possibly still a stud hitter. I felt I was forced to take the SP, since the stud hitters were gone. I wanted to then wait on SP for awhile, and just focus on hitters, but no one was taking SP. So I took another one.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Longoria in the 2nd rd was my favorite or maybe Bourjous in the 21st.
What picks would I like to do over? All of them. I don't like my team. Rizzo in the 3rd and Praod in the 6th. These were both mistakes at this point.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
The first 3 teams, kdog also looks solid.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
No one was taking SP. Matt Carpenter in the 9th rd was a surprise, but I like the him a lot just not in the 9th rd. he got the player he wanted.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I would pushed harder to have Yahoo over ESPN because or position eligibility is different. I would have drafted very differently in hindsight. I did several mock drafts trying to figure out what players might be available each rd, but it went to crap with teams passing on SP. I am looking to join another league because I am so unhappy with my team. I did not have a good draft. So times you take a risk and pass off and sometimes it doesn't.
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| 5 | Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Thu, Mar 28, 2013, 23:21
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So I have been in RIBC 4 of the past 6 seasons. And in those successful seasons, I have relied upon Rotowire as my primary stat projection source. Finally this season, I decided that too many other managers also use Rotowire, so I changed sources. And then based on historical RIBC results, I skewed my formulas that I have used in previous seasons. It certainly is interesting how the numbers have shifted from hitting to pitching over the past 10 seasons.
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
The hardest part of whatever strategy I had was trusting in my new projections and formula. I also kept my eye on rotowire, and there were certainly some differences. The only player that was a reach, based on the consolidated RIBC draft results , was Butler @3.03.
The generic strategy pre-draft was -
1. Best available hitter in rounds 1-3. SP in round 4. Closer in round 8-9. Fill MI sooner than later. Pay more attention to category awareness than positional scarcity.
2. Get four guys with 30+ HRs and four guys with 20+ SBs. If I am deciding between several comparable players, OBP and K/9 are the projections I pay the closest attention too.
3. Don’t use rounds 12-16 on any closer that doesn’t seem to have a stable job for the entire season.
4. Since I’m close to a turn, there are 26 picks between my go-round. So don’t be afraid of reaching if I think something I need will not be there.
The biggest alteration came in picking Kimbrel @4.14. I found myself behind in Runs and RBIs, and was chasing those categories even more than I wanted too.
The draft strategy was also altered by an out-of-town trip beginning in round 16. I was able to draft via iPhone, but it was from an 80-man queue list, and I mostly just picked the top guy on my list. Pick 16.14 was made on a plane. 17.03 in a rental car. 18.14 & 19.03 at a wedding. Fortunately the draft was slow, and I made it back home by round 20.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I’m pretty happy with all my players picked in the first 20 rounds. Not too many injury risks. A nice mix of veterans and upside youth. Very few picks were either minimums or maximums when looking at the consolidated RIBC drafts. I basically forgot about Catcher and a backup 3B which might haunt me in the end. I’m most excited to see what Middlebrooks and Ogando can bring to the table this year.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
In such a deep league, every team has holes. So all I can do is use my shiny new projections and see what they say. Fortunately, they have me in first! Tilt and artofmonk complete the top-3. And then about a 7-way tie to fill out the top-10. Too bad my projected standings won’t earn me a return invite in 2014.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Like everyone else ... the round 8 closer run. I also found that when I would add players to my queue list in rounds 18-23, those players would be covered in warts and body hair. The players I added in rounds 24-25 all seemed like little uncut diamonds. Plenty of available players (as long as you like middle relief) left on the FA wire in my opinion.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
If I were to change anything, it would be the draft slot, and taken Cano at 1.04, instead of Braun at 1.03. I fear that every time I see a Rotoworld update on Braun, my heart will skip a beat ...hoping that the word ‘Biogenesis’ does not appear in the blurb as well.
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| 7 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Fri, Mar 29, 2013, 02:06
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I don't have a specific strategy entering a draft, only a general one. I don't target specific players or positions for specific rounds because I find this too restricting and every draft unfolds slightly differently than the last, so you need to be flexible. Generally though for this league, I aim to take hitting early over SPs because hitting is safer to project year to year, make sure my MI is solid because these positions get very shallow very quickly, and take 3 closers as this will put me at or near the top in this category, barring injury or bad luck. I also rarely take setup men, as I feel these guys are the most random year to year, and are also a dime a dozen, relatively speaking at least. I'm very active with picking up free agents during the season and I'll add players that get off to fast starts, and I know setup men would be the first guys I'd drop anyway.
I took hitters with my first 4 picks, 2 of which were my 2B and SS in Zobrist & Aaron Hill. I don't feel I reached on these MI picks so that's a plus. I was able to get in on the closer run just in time and took 3 closers consecutively in rounds 8-10 (Willhelmson, Hanrahan, Cishek). I also paid some mind to my SPs and have Wainwright and Shields leading the way (rounds 5 & 6).
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Michael Morse is looking like a better pick by the day at 11.01 with his scorching Spring. This was interestingly though the highest he was drafted in the 5 RIBC leagues. Aaron Hicks (18.16) could also be a good contributor. My least favorite pick may be Victor Martinez (7.01). Not that I don't like him this year, but I didn't quite realize just how deep the catcher position was. Lucroy (17.02), Doumit (19.14) & Pierzynski (22.09) are probably better values. Even Rob Brantley (21.03), though he is more unproven and the Olivo signing hurts his stock a bit.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
This question is so difficult because the league is so deep so everyone appears to have holes, but I'll go with tosh, evan, jeffg, in this order. Hard to not include uptown bombers with the success he has had, but he has an uphill battle with no opening day closers.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Nothing too crazy. Maybe that a couple teams drafted very heavily in setup men, leaving them holes in what I consider to be more important positions. Every manager is different though, and there isn't necessarily a right or wrong way to do things, which makes fantasy sports all the more exciting.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I might have drafted an SP over VMart in round 7, and taken a catcher late, but VMart could well end up having a big year. Overall I like the way my team turned out. Looking forward. Thank you to Guru for making this happen.
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| 8 | kdl212
ID: 32214712
Fri, Mar 29, 2013, 03:27
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My simple strategy, as it is every year, is to succeed in the mid and mid-late rounds. I think I did it again. More on that below.
Otherwise, last year, I took 2 pitchers in the first 10 rounds - one starter and one reliever. This year, I promised myself that I'd be open to more pitching early on the assumption that almost every waits on pitching, and that if I zigged when others zagged, I could end up with a solid staff instead of trying to piece one together as I've done in the past. Other than that, I aimed for better OBP and strikeout rates, and intended not to draft any empty stolen bases (the guys who slug below 350).
I am happy with the results. I don't have a single hitter that I project to slug below 400, and that's with 4 guys projected to steal 20+ bases. I have a high k/9 staff (Lee, Darvish, Samardzija, Miller, Robertson, McGee and Putz could all strike out 9+/9). And I generally like what I found in rounds 10-24.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Favorite picks = Belt in the 13th, and Robertson/Saunders/Miller in 17-19.
I'd pass on Cuddyer and Victorino if I could do it over, but not because I don't think they fit my roster. Just because they are boring picks. And I'd go hitter (Span) instead of Milone in the 16th.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
They all have guys I wanted.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
As hard as it is to believe, given that I went into the draft expecting everyone to wait on starting pitching, I still found plenty of quality starting pitching available incredibly late. Of course, while folks were gobbling up starters, I was taking guys like Belt and Hart and Lowrie, which are not as easy to match off the waiver wire as #3 and #4 starters are.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Nope, but I'd love to do it over, because drafting is the best part of the whole year.
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| 9 | mailedfoot
ID: 70341417
Fri, Mar 29, 2013, 07:31
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Picking at 11, my plan was to take the best hitter available in the first round and after that to try and fill out the roster with the best value available. I was being aware of position scarcity, and favoring hitters early. This is my first time playing in this league, so I didn't really know what to expect.
I feel like things kind of got away from me in the midde of the draft. Probably due to poor preparation on my part and also the nature of the beast.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Right now, I like Benoit and Ryu as guys who have potential for big payoffs based on where they were drafted.
I think I would draft a closer at pick 8, as a closer run commenced immediately after my pick.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
In no particular order Uptown Bombers, Tosh, Evan
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
That I often was zigging when everyone else was zagging. I'm trying to tell myself it's because of my draft position and not my judgment.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I would try to do more pre draft preparation and targeting of players. I feel like I am still kind of a novice at fantasy sports and more focus on statisical analysis is what I need to improve.
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| 10 | JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 29, 2013, 12:32
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My overall strategy is to have target goals for my team (based on what it will take to get an 11 in that category based on last years results), and to keep a running consolidated total to try to keep my team on target. This year my targets were 941R, 885RBI, 143SB, .334OB, .432SLG, 81W, 82Sv, 1173K, 3.66ERA, 1.25WHIP.
In addition to that,I usually have a few basic guidelines for RIBC drafting: Get your MI early or expect some real number drainers; Try to avoid guys who are injury risks as injuries cripple your team in this format with a shallow bench and no DL; and knowing that I am never first with the waiver/free agent pick up on closer role changes, get two with job security and be done with it. I also like to look at the remaining players ar each position saying to myself, 'if I let so-and-so go here, is there a real drop in who I'd get next round or later in their place'.
As far as the goal stats, based on free projections (fangraphs, kffl, rotochamp) I am in the ballpark for all of them.
Regarding MI, I did not do this at all. I was one of the last to grab my first 2b/ss and then grabbed my other two in the middle of the second half of the draft. In-draft I decided to make sure to grab a few OF bats that will hopefully balance this out.
Regarding my injury risk approach, as I said in several rationales the tiebreaker for many choices was pitchers who had not missed a start in several years or players who consistently played in 150+ games. That being said, I did pick a few players at the end of the draft (Murphy, Morrison) who were banged up this spring and may not make Opening Day. (now LoMo may not be ready until June).
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I didn't need a third starting pitcher yet at 9.09 but liked Ian Kennedy at that spot. If Daniel Murphy (18.08) was not banged up, he may have went a few rounds earlier. On the flip side, if I knew Brandon Belt would have not made it to me in round 13, I may have picked him in round 12 instead of Kubel. Same with Pestano in round 15 who was to be my handcuff for Chris Perez.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Always tough to gauge other teams. It seems like tilt was always taking guys I had queued up. Uptown put together a great roster but will need more out of his lineup to compensate for lack of saves. I like how Guru built a nice pitching staff with mostly middle rounders. On the other hand, I don't know what Art is going to do with nine outfielders.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Even though I know that many mangers wait on pitching, I was surprised that by my fourth round pick after 45 players went off the board, that so few SP went, it killed my hitter queues. I ended up grabbing an SP2 figuring if more than half teams didn't have even one starter yet and are letting some strong ones slip, that gives me a real leg up. Also pleasantly surprised we did not have the closer run in round 5 that RIBC drafts have kind of been known for.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Not really. I know I have some holes, but I am really overall pleased with how my team turned out this draft. In my 3 prior visits to the RIBC majors I have been a non-factor (even though 5 of my 6 times in AA or AAA I have earned 'promotion') so I am really out to prove myself this season. The folks who make up the RIBC pool of managers are nothing like my casual office fantasy league or the public leagues, and you really have to be on your toes and prepared. When I read all of the other manager's rationales, I can tell they really understand how to construct a fantasy baseball team really get behind the numbers, and they really are familiar with so many players deep in the org charts (much more than me).
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| 11 | Tilt23
ID: 280283018
Fri, Mar 29, 2013, 17:45
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I am defending my RIBC championship this year and it is going to be tough. This is my 5th year playing in the RIBC leagues and I have finished 1st in AA AAA and the majors, but also finished 13th in the majors and I have tried to follow the same strategy everytime....
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I expect to take the best hitter available regardless of position in the first 5 rounds. Then 2 SP and 2 closers in the next 6 rounds. getting at least one elite closer before the run in rounds 7-8. After that just adapt to how my team looks....sometimes i have 3 1B after 5 rounds this year i had 3 OF, just have to adapt. I use OPS to guide my hitters not runs and RBI. If they aint on base they dont score and if they dont hit the ball hard they dont drive in runs. For starters i always prefer strikeouts and good teams to ratios and for RP i want stuff over opprotunity, the stuff will win out.
I feel like I did ok following my strategy. My offense is good, I will be at the top of both ratios barring injury and not hurting anywhere else. i am going to need that because I did not get the elite SPs i wanted. I got good guys and while not elite i will need them to be better then last year to compete in those categories. I will have to get lucky on closers as i only got one elite one. I am set up with setup guys though so going to have to get lucky there.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
7.05 Aroldis Chapman...at the time he was my second SP but i correctly predicted he would be my elite closer.....12.12 Angel Pagan lasted longer then he should have, will be great value there.... on the other hand... 14.12 Bruce Rondon, being sent down before the year, i reached to try and get another closer, meh
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Too hard to judge based on drafts, everyone does their homework, everyone has holes. I dont see anyone that is far and away the best or the worst.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I wasnt surprised by much to be honest, SP lasted longer then in most drafts and the closer run was more heated and longer then i thought it would be.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Of course. I would of taken a 3B earlier rather then having to rely on Youkilis with no backup and I would have taken a closer to go with chapman instead of a #2-3 SP. But overall I feel like i will be middle of the pack with upside to be in the top 3.
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| 12 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 81262014
Thu, Apr 04, 2013, 18:34
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Like others, I have targets for each stat and draft with those in mind using some projections and my own feelings on players. I enter each draft trying to win each offensive category. I've never left the draft doing that, but I aim high. I generally like to take at least one MI in the first few picks and one elite SP to anchor my staff. I have decided over the last two years to not participate in closer runs and to only take a closer when their value feels right to me.
I executed this fairly well, with the only real difference this year as compared to previous drafts was that I ended up with 2 SP in my first 4 picks. I felt it was fine to go this way as at the time in the draft, I believed Bumgarner was too good a value. Also, my sense is with pitching stats becoming better each year, I didn't mind having two SP#1's. I ended up holding out on RP until round 14, and even then, not taking an established closer but rather a speculative one. As others have noted, this is not ideal. But I won the league two years ago while punting saves and while this is not my intention (at least not at the start) at least I know it is possible to win following that path.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
My favorites were Cespedes in round 3 ( I think he has first round potential), Niese in round 13 (I'm hoping for a next step by him, as a fantasy owner and Mets fan), Reddick in round 15 (a lot of power to available that late, I was surprised) and Alonso in round 16 (nice young player I think will be as good as many CI picked well before him). As for other managers, I have to mention again, as I did in my rationales, that I was surprised to Angel Pagan available in round 12. I thought that was a great value. I also love Harvey in round 12, but that might be my Mets tinted glasses again.
Least favorite: I'm biased by his slow start, but I'm starting to worry about Leonys Martin in round 18. I'm not crazy about Espinosa in round 8 but felt pressured by needing a SS and seeing few options that I liked.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
This is based on the draft results, not moves since then, which seems to be the spirit of the question. I make that distinction because I liked the pick up of Cowgill post grand slam.
In no particular order, kdl212 and Da Bomb. On name brand alone, I am intrigued by Rotoguru Jr, though a bit skeptical.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The extended closer run in the rounds 8-9, but only because I entered the draft unwilling to play that game. I was also a bit surprised by the lack of offensive options late in the draft. Usually these last few picks are wasted anyways, but this year I could barely talk myself into a bat in round 25.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I would like a backup SS. Considering that I didn't like my offensive options late in the draft, I wouldn't mind taking back one of the Iwakuma or Buchholz picks and taking a bat for the bench there. Otherwise, not too much to do differently but wait and see how the picks perform.
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