RotoGuru Baseball Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread


Self-edit this thread


0 Subject: RIBC 2014: Rationale Collection thread

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Fri, Mar 07, 2014, 10:21

RIBC managers: Please post your rationales in this thread. Rationales are due on a two round lag (i.e., when you make you 3rd round pick, your 1st round rationale is due. You can post any rationale sooner than that if you wish.

Do not worry about placeholders or keeping things in the proper sequence. This is just a place to collect rationales, which I will then transfer over to the formal rationale thread in the proper sequence. This approach worked well for football and hoops last fall, and I now have a somewhat automated method for making those transfers.

Remember that you should refrain from mentioning undrafted players. If you feel that your rationale requires that, then hold it back until the player has been drafted - unless the player mentioned is clearly undraftable this year.

Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.]
223beastiemiked
      ID: 5911312710
      Wed, Mar 19, 2014, 17:39
18.07 Denard Span, WAS, OF

Not a huge fan of this pick. Really wanted Ruggiano since Steamer projections love him. Was a little surprised he didn't make it to me. Decided to go with Span because he's going to play everyday and give me some steals. My next couple picks are going to be hail mary's so I needed to draft a guy that was for sure going to contribute. Really wanted Dickerson but his playing time is very questionable right now.

19.10 Ian Kennedy, SDG, SP

Another "contributor". He's never going to light the world on fire but he's proven he can be a solid fantasy player in the past. Moving to SDG for a full season should help his numbers. If anything, he'll be a great spot starter for my team.

20.07 Oscar Taveras, Stl, OF

Shot in the dark here. He's going to start the year in the minors but could be an early call up if someone gets hurt. Last year I drafted Puig around this time and dropped and picked him up 4-5 times before his eventual callup in June. Hopefully, Taveras will get called up sooner because if not he could be a casualty as well if my team gets hit with injuries. Almost went with Carlos Martinez but just didn't have the confidence they were going to name him the 5th starter.

21.10 Jarrod Dyson, KC, OF

When I looked at all the other drafts nobody drafted Dyson. WTF? Instead of letting him slip another round or two I decided to play it safe and pick him here. I know he's the 4th outfielder but given regular at bats he's a shoe in for 40+ steals. Even if the KC outfield manages to stay healthy he should still see 2-3 starts a week.

22.07 Josmil Pinto, MIN, C

Ugh, this pick makes me want to kick myself for taking McCann so early. Catcher is DEEP this year and getting Pinto here proves that. Dude can hit and when he takes over full time catcher duties from Suzuki he'll be a top 10 catcher bat. If anyone is interested in McCann he's on the block :)

23.10 Tommy Medica, SDG, OF

Another hail mary. Medica doesn't really have a spot right now. I'm hoping he hits his way into the lineup. He seems like he has the potential to put up .350/450 line if given the opportunity. At this point anybody that has the potential for that is worth drafting.

24.07 Jake Marisnick, MIA, Of

Dart board here. Praying he wins the job instead of the other guy.


225twilson
      ID: 36222109
      Wed, Mar 19, 2014, 18:16
13.15 Will Venable, OF, SD
Perusing the player lists, there is absolutely no one who stands out to me, but there is a wide spread of acceptable options. On the offensive side, outfielders flood the top of my charts. I kind of like David Freese but think he will be around in the 15th. Pitchingwise, I see little reason to take a reliever. Benoit was the only one I considered, as I like both his situation and talent level, but there are enough other guys I like also that he would be a bit of a luxury. Thus, I think it makes sense to go OF/SP with this pair of picks. I ended up having more of a preference amongst the outfielders, so that was my 13.15 choice.

Eaton left the board a handful of picks prior to this one, so he is out of the discussion. I’m not sure I would’ve picked him anyway, but it would have been nice to have the option. Khris Davis was not, so I investigated him thoroughly. Ultimately, his awful spring training made me skeptical that he would live up to this draft slot. Will Venable and Angel Pagan were two names that wouldn’t hurt my rate cats while providing elusive SBs. I glanced at Alfonso Soriano, Carl Crawford, and Corey Hart, but wasn’t all that interested. Venable was the choice because Pagan has been dealing with a tight back. Plus, he’s a guy I’ve always liked and considered undervalued. I don’t think he is undervalued again this year, but it’s not like I’m passing up some other great option to take him.

14.02 Lance Lynn, SP, STL
I worked up a lengthy list of starting pitching options for this pick, beginning with ADP and using projections and news reports to gradually eliminate names. The final three players on my list were Lance Lynn, Dan Haren, and Marco Estrada. Estrada is a perennial favorite of mine. With the exception of some home run issues, he always pitches well when healthy, with last season’s stretch run being a particularly fine effort. Unfortunately, he’s never exceeded 150 IP in his professional career, and that seems unlikely to change. I let the health issues, and the chance he’ll be there at 15.15, steer me in a different direction.

Haren is the favorite pitcher of my various projection systems, but my personal analysis makes me a bit more skeptical though still intrigued. Lynn strikes out nearly a batter an inning, but his significant platoon split limits his upside. I chose Lynn due to his durability and the potential for me to bench him against lefty-heavy lineups.
226mmikulka
      ID: 71372512
      Wed, Mar 19, 2014, 18:23
24.11 – Yasmani Grandal: C, SD
Yasmani had a lot of hype surrounding his debut in 2012, but last year he got hit with a PED suspension and then tore his ACL, so he’s flying under the radar now. He’s certainly unproven, but his minor league track record suggests he’ll be a very patient hitter with a high OBP. He has matched that expectation at the MLB level so far, with a .380 OBP (driven by an insane 14.7 walk rate [I know, small sample size]) in his first 334 at bats.

Grandal also is expected to have a decent amount of power. Most projections have his ISO around .140, which would be fine. It was thought that he would start the season on the DL, but he healed much faster than expected, and played in his first spring training game almost a week ago.
227twilson
      ID: 36222109
      Wed, Mar 19, 2014, 18:39
15.15 Nick Castellanos, 3B/OF, DET
I made my 15th and 16th picks while out and about, which limited my research abilities. I did an hour or two before leaving the house and put together some queues, though nothing was set in stone. I would’ve taken Freese or Estrada here had they not been taken earlier in the round.

After my pick at 14.02, my dad texted me and asked what I thought about Castellanos. Previously unaware of him as a player, I did a little reading and liked enough of what I saw to put him on the list. His stellar spring and strong surrounding lineup offer me as much hope as I’m going to find at third base the rest of the way. I don’t entirely remember who else I was considering other than some outfielders that I correctly guessed would be available later on in the draft.

16.02 Matt Garza, SP, MIL
This is possibly my least favorite pick of my draft. It is less significant of a bad pick compared to the early rounds, but Garza is not the type of player I like to draft at the bottom end of my rotation. I should be going for lottery tickets, and Garza just doesn’t quite fit that bill anymore. Too much risk for not enough potential reward. With that said, he does have a chance to add value to my roster. The awful spring, which I didn’t know about due to my limited research for this pick, doesn’t help matters.
228twilson
      ID: 36222109
      Wed, Mar 19, 2014, 19:00
17.15 Mark Melancon, RP, PIT
It’s time to finally take a second reliever. Sadly, it looks like I will be hurting for saves this year. In this league, I’m never Mr. Waiver Wire, so unless I get lucky I may need to trade for a closer eventually. I was surprised to see Melancon still available. I don’t feel I have a particularly high valuation of him, but here we are. Grilli was great last year, but he’s 37 and has only one year as the incumbent. Melancon’s track record isn’t perfect, but he was among the best relievers in baseball last year. I think he is likelier than any other reliever still undrafted to put up an elite performance in 2014. Cody Allen and Darren O’Day were the other two names I considered. Allen isn’t as good a pitcher as Melancon, but he’s backing up a much shakier closer in John Axford. I feel he has the best situation of the remaining talented relievers. O’Day has a better track record than either Melancon or Allen, but he was passed over for Tommy Hunter despite an equal or better performance. That indicates a lack of managerial confidence to some degree. Plus, he’ll probably still be around next turn. Melancon’s superior upside is what made him the pick.
229Seattle Zen
      ID: 3310162612
      Wed, Mar 19, 2014, 19:24
25.05.389 Derek Norris, C, OAK Derrick Norris doesn't wear a mask to protect his face from the baseball, he wears a mask to protect the baseball from his face kicking its ass. Derrick Norris hits lefties like Mr. T does fools - again and again with great success. Don't call Derrick Norris a thief, he ran to second base while you were throwing the ball because that's HIS base, damnit, watchagonnadoboutit? His tears cure cancer, too bad he never cries.

I could go on and on, this is fun again.
230mailedfoot
      ID: 531322718
      Wed, Mar 19, 2014, 21:20
25.04 Mesoraco, Devin, C, CIN

Not much to distinguish the catchers who are left in my mind; took Mesoraco since he figures to get the bulk of the playing time, plays half his games in a hitters park, at 26 should be coming into his prime, and has put up some good power numbers in the minors.
232mmikulka
      ID: 71372512
      Wed, Mar 19, 2014, 23:33
25.06 – Jorge De La Rosa: SP, COL
This roster spot will likely rotate between players on a day-to-day basis. Most of the time it will be occupied by a spot starter, a fill-in batter, or a reliever. De La Rosa is decent and pitches on opening day at Miami, so I’m beginning with him.

If I wasn’t able to get De La Rosa, my backup plan was to make Eric Sogard an honorary pick. In what has become an unfortunate theme recently, Nerd Power finished in 2nd place.
233holt
      Donor
      ID: 308491916
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 01:32
19.07 Jordy Mercer - 2B/SS - PIT

Owings and Peavy were taken from a short queue I had going. Mercer is from my neck of the woods (NW Oklahoma). He had a .336 OBP and .435 SLG last season in 333 AB. I had him rostered for a while last season and he came in handy. Clearly no one expects a repeat of his OPS or he wouldn't still be available. He's shown some ability inn the minors (19 HR in 2011, and .333/.404/.448 in 109 PA last year). I don't have any big expectations. .320/400 with 5 SB seems reasonable but he's 27 and there's some chance he outperforms the projections. Hopefully he hits from the start and I don't have to cut him. It's the 19th round and I need a MI with hint of potential. I really wanted Owings but it was not to be.

Little known facts about Mercer. He played for Oklahoma State and was the team's shortstop and closer. He ended up setting the team record for saves. He also hit .500 with 38 RBI for Taloga High School, leading the Panthers to a Class B state championship and also a state runner-up!
234holt
      Donor
      ID: 308491916
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 02:01
20.10 Daniel Nava - OF - BOS

I'm a little concerned about my team OBP (early picks of A Jones and W Rosario set that in motion). It's something that will be a work in progress throughout the season. Nava is an On-base Machine (.369 in the majors, .403 in the minors).

Nava is available here in the 20th round. I had been toying with drafting him for a few rounds. Apparently no one sees last year's performance being repeated (.303/.385/.445) but I figure he'll come close enough. He won't steal any bases but the run production should be decent. If he happens to pick up 1B eligibility that will be helpful.

Bonus Nava Factoid:
Taking the advice of Red Sox radio broadcaster Joe Castiglione, who before the game told him to swing as hard as he could on the first pitch because "that's the only first pitch in the majors you'll ever see," Nava did swing at the first pitch he saw and hit a grand slam off Phillies pitcher Joe Blanton into the Red Sox bullpen.
235holt
      Donor
      ID: 308491916
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 03:00
21.07 DJ LeMahieu - 2B - COL

My 4th Rockies hitter. I was sitting on Utley, Aybar, & Mercer at MI. LeMahieu was probably the last MI I'd have bothered drafting. He hasn't shown much power yet but does make good contact and stole 18 bases in about 400 AB last year. His career home split is .311/.348/.420 so I might be able to get some use from him.

LeMahieu will beat Rutledge for the 2B job because he's a better fielder and Walt Weiss is the manager. Surprisingly, he is 6'4" 205 lb. Found something in an old scouting report predicting eventual power.
Tim Wilken, the Cubs Director of Amateur and Professional Scouting:

“He runs average, plays the game well and is going to have some power down the road, but it’s going to be a few years. It’s going to be three to four years in my mind before you see that he has that kind of pop.”

“He handled the bat really good in the Cape Cod League (last) summer. He hits the ball really well to the other side of the field. When you know you’ve got a guy that can hit the ball the other way that well … the hitting instructors will tell you that nine times out of 10, this guy will have a chance to pull the ball with authority as he gets older and stronger.”

I'm not predicting a power surge, but the guy is 6'4". He's not your run of the mill middle infield weakling. He plays in Colorado and maybe we'll start to see some of that power developing this year. I can hope.

Bonus LeMahieu Factoid

LeMahieu played shortstop/pitcher for the Brother Rice High School Warriors. In his senior year, as a leadoff hitter he hit .574 with eight home runs, 16 doubles, seven triples, 70 runs, 32 RBI and 39 stolen bases. In 92 at-bats as a senior, LeMahieu struck out twice. In 2009, LeMahieu led LSU to a National Championship.

236mmikulka
      ID: 71372512
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 03:18
23.06 – Yunel Escobar: SS, TB
Since Rutledge isn’t guaranteed much playing time, I still needed another MI. I had considered taking Yasmani Grandal here, but I didn’t identify anybody who was likely to draft a catcher before my next pick, and Grandal wasn't likely to be the next one taken anyway. Besides, the consequences of missing out on the 2 remaining MI I find acceptable would have been disastrous.

These remaining MI were Scooter Gennett and Yunel Escobar: Gennett actually had good stats last year, but a sky-high BABIP was likely the cause, and he probably will have to split time with Rickie Weeks. Escobar has a secure job, and he plays SS, which would give me a backup in case of an Andrus injury.

Escobar looks like he’ll be bad, but not soul-crushingly terrible, so there’s that. 4 of his 7 seasons have actually been very good, but the last one of those was in 2011, so it seems like they may be permanently in the past.

An intriguing fact that probably means nothing but was enough to help me bite the bullet: Last year Escobar’s batted ball distance rose by 21.3 feet, the 2nd most in the MLB!!
237holt
      Donor
      ID: 308491916
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 05:19
22.10 Cody Asche - 3B - PHI

Need another 3B option after Freese. Asche (pronounced ASH-ee) put up respectable numbers in the minors (.360/.480'ish) but went .235/.302/.389 in the bigs last year. Projections generally have him around .310/.410 with 5-10 SB. Not many other 3B options so I drafted Asche hoping that he rises above the projections. If he stinks, I have no problem cutting 22nd rounders. I kind of kicked the tires on L Morrison and J Quintana but I really needed the extra option at Thirdbase.

Bonus Cody Asche Factoid

Asche is a fan of football, and is an ardent supporter of the Nebraska Cornhuskers; he routinely drives six hours to attend their home football games. He also "appreciates the speed and violence of hockey"; conversely, he does not like basketball.
238holt
      Donor
      ID: 308491916
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 06:16
23.07 Abraham Almonte - OF - SEA

Almonte seems to be getting most of the centerfield starts and leadoff duties in spring training. From what I gather, no one on the Mariner roster is close to him defensively in CF. If you see him on the tube he kind of looks like Kirby Puckett out there. Last year in the minors he had quite a season .300/.394/.482 with 26 steals (67 walks in 440 AB). He's a switch-hitter and makes pretty good contact.

Almonte came to the U.S. from the Dominican Republic. The Yankees signed him as a 16-year-old but he started drinking shortly after his father died of a stomach ailment the next year in 2007. There's an interesting
article I found that tells a little of his story here.

“I think he is going to be a major league everyday center fielder and a guy who can possibly go to multiple All-Star Games,” said Rainiers manager John Stearns. “That’s how high I am on him, and I don’t like to get too high on a kid. But with a guy like Almonte, the sky is the limit.”
239jdrenbarger
      Dude
      ID: 04035768
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 09:29
23.13 Morse, Michael - SFO - OF

Still don't have enough pitchers to fill out my starting slots, but I just can't pass up Morse here - gives me a 7th OF eligible player, which should allow me to do a far better job of maximizing games played at the position than I usually do, and he - should I need to regularly use him - can help at R, RBI and SLG as a projected everyday player if he resembles his 2010-2012 version. Debated going with Bourjos and ended up slotting Morse 1/Bourjos 2 in my queue - with Bourjos going off the board with the pick previous to mine.
240jdrenbarger
      Dude
      ID: 04035768
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 09:41
24.04 Quintana, Jose - CWS - SP

The good, particularly in the 24th round of this draft - 2013 stat line of 200 IP / 164 K / 3.51 ERA / 1.22 WHIP

The bad, from Rotoworld.com yesterday - "White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana allowed a whopping nine runs on seven hits and two walks without getting a single out in his Cactus League start Tuesday afternoon against the A’s. Had it been a regular-season outing, it would have been the worst stat line in Major League Baseball history. And that’s not hyperbole. That’s fact."

I'm sure glad spring training stats don't mean anything ... well, at least I hope they don't ...
241jdrenbarger
      Dude
      ID: 04035768
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 09:49
25.13 Lindstrom, Matt - CWS - RP

I was looking to buy a lottery ticket for saves here and had Josh Fields at the top of my queue ... and jkaye picked him up four picks prior to mine. Lindstrom was second in my queue - Nate Jones still hasn't been named as the Sox closer and Lindstrom is simply a handcuff pick for me at this point. I'd feel better about it if Lindstrom was the clear #2 choice ... but then he'd no doubt not have been available here.
242twilson
      ID: 36222109
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 16:23
18.02 Justin Ruggiano, OF, CHC
This pick seemed like a good time to fill my utility slot. I already have 4 starting pitchers and took a reliever at 17.15. I am unenthused by any of the remaining middle infielders, and the corner guys don’t look that much better. Kendrys Morales has the most potential to be a strong contributor, but it is very unclear if he will be signed anytime soon. We’re now at the point of the draft where I can see him being taken before my next pick, and I would like to have him, but I need to evaluate all my options to see if I have a stronger preference elsewhere.

Beyond the infield, Alejandro De Aza is the biggest dropper. I like his game and owned him for his breakout season in 2012 (one of my few strong picks that year). Yet I don’t see enough playing time for him in the crowded White Sox outfield to justify adding him. Melky Cabrera and Nick Markakis are atop the projection sheets, but I have my doubts about both of them also. Justin Ruggiano offers comparable OBP/SLG projections and throws some steals into the mix, but his PA total lags the others. However, I think he has a real chance to play more than in any prior season now that he has moved over to the Cubs, which would boost his projection above the others. I’ve been eyeing him for a couple rounds, and I think now is the time to pull the trigger. I want him more than Morales.
243twilson
      ID: 36222109
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 17:57
21.15 Nick Markakis, OF, BAL
Markakis just keeps hanging around at the top of my sheet. At this point, I might as well take him. He played really well in 2012, putting up a triple slash of .298/.363/.471. Last year was extremely disappointing, but he was playing hurt the whole time. If he can get healthy, he has the potential to be a very nice fourth outfielder. If I really thought he was going to do it, I would’ve taken him multiple rounds ago. But at 21.15, the price is finally right.

22.02 Drew Hutchison, SP, TOR
Hutchison, like Castellanos, is a name I had never heard before this draft began. In his case, it is for good reasons. After 60 IP with the Blue Jays in 2012, he tore his UCL and needed Tommy John surgery. Fast forward to the present and he’s striking out almost one of two batters in spring training. His career minor league numbers have been very strong, so a breakout is not out of the question. Anyway, he’s the type of guy I like to take this late in RIBC drafts. Maybe he can be my Shelby Miller of 2014. A man can dream!

Michael Saunders was my primary consideration on the offensive side, with an honorable mention to Logan Morrison. Playing time uncertainty was the downfall for both in my mind.

23.15 Charlie Morton, SP, PIT
The 64 innings I got from Morton over the last month or two of 2013 was one of the unsung contributions to my AAA PCL championship. He led the league in GB% while still managing to a K/9 rate of 6.6. His biggest negative is a significant platoon split. I can certainly see a scenario in which Morton resides for the entire season on my roster, which is all I can ask for a 23rd round pick.

24.02 Nate Eovaldi, SP, MIA
He throws the ball really hard. Strikeouts have eluded him in past seasons, but he’s had a good spring in that department. This is a pick hoping that success continues into the regular season. I’m not particularly hopeful, it’ll be easy to make a judgment after a couple starts. If it doesn’t work out, I can move on relatively quickly. I also thought about adding a setup man here.

25.15 Jenrry Mejia, SP, NYM
I know I’ve taken starters with my previous three picks, but why stop when I’m still finding names that interest me? Mejia doesn’t sound likely to begin the season in the Mets rotation, but there’s enough of a chance that I figured I would take a flyer on him. If he gets sent to the minors, he’ll be an easy drop. If not, he could be a very nice source of quality innings. Mejia was excellent in a tiny 27 inning sample last year, putting up a 2.46 xFIP.
244beastiemiked
      ID: 53512921
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 22:21
25.10 Ozuna, Marcell - MIA - OF

He was the "other guy" in my previous post. He's been terrible this spring but has potential. Didn't realize I was a little short on pitching so will probably be dropping at least 1 outfielder, possibly 2.
245Meatwads
      ID: 57134714
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 10:00
14.15 Corey Hart, 1B/OF, SEA
Another slugger coming off a season-long layoff. I'm shooting for a strong showing from a former 30 homer guy but I realize the risk involved with someone missing so much time. I like that he's currently projected to hit cleanup behind Cano so he could have a lot of RBI chances in an improving Seattle lineup. The 1B/OF flexibility also gives him some added value. When healthy in the past he pass been a valuable player and he's still not too old.

15.02 CC Sabathia, SP, NYY
Taking a gamble on a bounce back from the former Cy Young award winner. Until last year (which started with a shoulder surgery) he has been as consistent as they come. There is some worry he may be declining after racking up so many innings in his career but I've liked the way he looks in spring and I think he's smart enough to reinvent himself if he has lost his mid-90's velocity for good. Combine that with the Yankees revamped lineup and I think he can give me solid numbers across the board, unless he is done.
246Meatwads
      ID: 57134714
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 10:13
16.15 Justin Smoak, 1B, SEA
Taking a gamble here on a failed prospect to finally break out a little. I saw some signs last season in the second half that Smoak may still have another level. Entering the season in his prime with a better lineup around him, I'm predicting the switch-hitter to have his finest season to date. I'm prepared to accept that he may be a complete bust but I drafted him to be a backup for me and anything beyond that is gravy.

17.02 Dan Uggla, 2B, ATL
The theme continues with another slugger coming off one of the worst seasons of any regular last season. I really wanted to fill my MI spot with this pick and Uggla has showed some flashes in the spring that last year may be an outlier in his career. Any time you have a player this late in a draft with a premium position that has a consistent track record of power and is still in his prime, I think the reward outweighs the risk. If he bounces back he could be one of my best picks. If not, then I'll do better in AAA next year! Haha
247Meatwads
      ID: 57134714
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 10:29
18.15 Eric Young
This pick was pretty simple. I wanted to add one of the better speed guys available and Young showed last year he could a top tier stolen base threat if given the playing time. I'm slightly concerned he may lose some playing time at some point but when I made the pick I projected him as the leadoff man for the Mets, at least against right-handed pitching. I think a safe estimate would be about 25-30 steals this year with upside up to 40. A player this late in a draft that can swing multiple points for my team in a category is surely a worthwhile gamble.

19.02 Yordano Ventura, SP, KC
The hype machine is in full affect for this unproven rookie. When I selected him he still hadn't locked up a rotation spot but I've liked him for a couple years and owned him in my AL-only keeper league in the minors. I think the height issue is overblown and anyone who can throw 100 mph fairly regularly has a special place in my heart. When you throw that hard, you don't always need to be pitching like Greg Maddux to be effective. I'm keeping my expectations in check but deep down I'm hoping he becomes one of those young pitchers (Matt Harvey, Jose Fernandez, etc.) that is really good right away and carries significant value.
248Evan
      ID: 29181714
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 10:52
Pick 25.08 – Ryan Cook (OAK) RP
Speculative closer grab, nothing more and nothing less. I seem to draft him every season and he puts up solid numbers for a reliever. I’m not confident in Jim Johnson even though they threw a lot of money at him.
249Meatwads
      ID: 57134714
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 11:39
20.15 Taijuan Walker, SP, SEA
I was looking for some more high upside pitching and decided I couldn't let Walker fall any further. He's likely starting the season on the DL but besides that, I am thrilled to get him this late. He pitches in a pitchers park, is considered by some to be the best pitching prospect in all of baseball and I think he'll give me 160-175 innings of useful stats. Of course there is always risk involved with picking an unproven player but he showed flashes during his late season call-up last season. At this stage in the draft I always like to shoot for the moon and if it doesn't work I can easily justify replacing the guy with someone who emerges. A low-risk/high-reward pick in my opinion.

21.02 Alcides Escobar, SS, KC
This was simply a pick of need. I felt I need a little more depth in the MI and he seemed like the safest guy remaining who I can count on to have a job. Last season he was atrocious so I really didn't like the pick overall but the league had been aggressive taking lots of MI and I had to settle for him. On the bright side, he is entering his prime, shows considerable stolen base potential when he does reach base and used to be a top prospect. There is still hope for the guy but I'm not counting on much.
250holt
      Donor
      ID: 308491916
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 14:38
24.10 A.J. Griffin - SP - OAK

I was trying to decide Griffin or Grandal here. I wanted both but figured a SP was more important than a backup C, so I took Griffin and hoped Grandal would make the turn. Of course, Grandal went the very next pick.

I've always liked Griffin as a 5th starter. He has flexor tendinitis and is shut down another 2 1/2 weeks or so. That's ok though. If not for the tendinitis he would have been gone 7 rounds earlier. Of the remaining SP I think his Whip/K combo was by far the best. If he can cut down on the gopher balls he can perform like a top 25 pitcher (career MLB 1.13 whip 7.5 K/9; minors 1.02 whip 8.7 K/9). Just hope he gets into action soon.
251holt
      Donor
      ID: 308491916
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 14:48
25.10 Maikel Franco - 3B - PHI

Pretty much anyone still out there will be available as a FA soon enough so I didn't bother with this pick too much. Franco is a highly ranked prospect and seems likely headed for AAA to start the season. His first MLB action will be to either replace Asche or fill in for R Howard. Since I have both Asche & Howard on my roster I figured I better roster him for at least a few days. Technically he's still in a position battle with Asche as they haven't named their starter yet. Anyway, he probably won't be on my roster long.
252JKaye
      ID: 31192314
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 17:59
20.08 Martinez, Carlos SP STL

I really like this kids upside, but thought some other owners might feel the same. My team is pretty settled by this point so felt I could reach and hope he lands the fifth starter gig.

21.09 Weeks, Rickie 2B MIL

MI has been an issue for me. I hesitated on pulling the trigger on certain guys in earlier rounds to fill a different need and then fired away on a guy without a team. I surveyed the landscape and settled on Weeks. One of the classic "if healthy" guys, I was actually intrigued by the type of stat line he could offer as a MI in this league.

22.08 Herrera, Kelvin RP KAN

Just needed one of those classic middle reliever arms that every team needs to fill innings efficiently.

23.09 Wilson, Brian RP LAD

He used to be good? We are at the point of the draft where it's luck and a prayer. Doubt he is on my team in May but shall see if that hunch is correct.

24.08 Nolasco, Ricky SP MIN

Not a ton of upside but has always been a strong sabermetric pitcher who never yielded expected results. I like the ballpark fit for a fly all pitcher. Ironically, AFTER I made the pick I started liking it more. This guy had 13 wins, 3.7 era, 1.21 whip and 7.5 k/9 last year. He was also named opening day starter for whatever that's worth. Honestly the profile is overqualified for round 24 so I like what I found here.

25.09 Fields, Josh RP HOU

Nearly took him in round 23 and 24 so was happy to see him atop my queue to use for the final round. A potential contributor in a tough category to fill. Who knows if he gets a chance to close or how well he might do, but this is as good a final pick as one can hope for. Really completed what was for me a terrific draft and I hope to see my team contending in the top 3-4 teams.
253kdl212
      ID: 231211918
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 19:00
18.05 Tim Lincecum, SP, SF
This was down to Lincecum and Josh Johnson. Johnson offered upside, but likely injury. Lincecum seemed more likely to poison me by staying healthy instead of getting hurt. But even in his diminished state, he gets strikeouts and pitchers in a friendly park. The problem seems to be the smaller gap between fastball and change-up. The solution seems easy enough - slow the change slower. There's no doubt that he's a good pitcher, and I'm hoping he's one that can finally adjust to the reality of a different repertoire.

I was not enthusiastic about this pick at all, and would do it over again now that the draft is done. Middle-of-the-road starters are not worth draft picks.
254kdl212
      ID: 231211918
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 19:01
19.12 Tyson Ross, SP, SD
Unsatisfied that I had gotten much out of my last pick (Lincecum), I stayed with NL West pitching. Ross has a nasty slider, and promises high strikeouts with his park protecting his ERA/WHiP. He likely won't throw 200 innings, but I'm more concerned with quality than quantity. There are always spot starters to match up against weak lineups during the year.
255kdl212
      ID: 231211918
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 19:05
20.05 Melky Cabrera, OF, TOR
I was very pleased with this pick, and won't be surprised if Melky outperforms my previous 2 outfield selections of Willingham (15th) and Eaton (13th). If I'm lucky, he hits second in the lineup, and gives me a bunch of runs walking home after Bautista and Encarnacion hit home runs. He's been raking in spring training, which is a piece of information. Something like his 2011 season (340/470 with 20 stolen bases and 100 runs) would be berserker. I'll be happy in the 20th round with 330/430, 80 runs and a dozen stolen bases. I'm confident he can do that.
256kdl212
      ID: 231211918
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 19:08
21.12 Ike Davis, 1B, NYM
This is the perfect round 21 pick - I don't think there was anyone else on the board who could hit 30 home runs and drive in 85. That he's CI eligible and not OF was a bonus. Sure, he's hurt, and he's been pretty awful the last 2 years. But maybe he's isn't all that bad. He's 27, and doesn't have valley fever. The upside here is just what I like to chase in these last few rounds.
257kdl212
      ID: 231211918
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 19:21
22.05 Erasmo Ramirez, SP, SEA
Throughout this draft, I kept seeing Mariners go a tad early, and decided we should rename the league the HAMPSTER League (Hope About Mariner PerformanceS Exceeding Realisticexpectations). Seager, Miller, Ackley, Hart, Smoak all got jumped on sooner than I expected (well, all but Miller). Hell, even Nick Franklin, who doesn't have a starting job and is likely to be in AAA and isn't a top flight prospect, got drafted already.

But I've been a Mariner fan since 1983. In little league, me and my friends all had Mark Langston hair sticking out the back of our ballcaps. Harold Reynolds signed a baseball for me in the Kingdome in 1985. I shaved my head for a Jay Buhner day. I wept, actually wept, when Ken Phelps (a former Mariner!) hit a home run to break up a Brian Holman perfect game with 2 outs in the 9th. I saw Gorman Thomas hit a foul ball so far and so hard in the Kingdome that I'm convinced it dented the concrete. And through all the losing, I cheered them all.

All I wanted was at least one Mariner on my team. But I kept putting it off, and guys like Taijuan and Paxton kept getting snatched.

So even though Erasmo wasn't drafted in either AAA league, I wasn't going to put it off any longer. If he follows through on the former upside, awesome. If not, then it's because Mariners.

258kdl212
      ID: 231211918
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 19:24
23.12 Peter Bourjos, OF, STL
I was planning to pick a high strikeout relief guy here, as I like to do with my end picks, but for some reason I searched for Bourjos, who wasn't in my queue, and he came up as undrafted. Perfect! I still feel low on runs and stolen bases, and he (like Melky) might hit second in a high-scoring lineup.

This leaves me with more OF than I intended to collect, but it's another perfect late round pick.
259kdl212
      ID: 231211918
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 19:25
24.05 AJ Ramos, RP, MIA
Time for some relief guys who gets strikeouts and might get saves. Not sure a Marlin reliever is the best place to look here, but Ramos put up decent numbers last year, and maybe the Fish trade Cishek. Ramos is unlikely to survive April on my roster, as he looks like the first guy to drop should a need for an acquisition arise.
260kdl212
      ID: 231211918
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 19:28
25.12 Heath Bell, RP, TB
I don't believe in Heath Bell, but I believe in TB. If they can turn 2011 Fernando Rodney (4.5 ERA and 8 walks per 9 innings) into 2012 Fernando Rodney (one of the greatest seasons in relief pitching history ), then maybe they can do the same for Heath Bell. And since Grant Balfour has a hidden injury and is already complaining of a dead arm in Spring training, this seems like a fair 25th round gamble on finding 20 saves.
261reeb
      ID: 53234417
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 22:51
21.11 Tazawa, Junichi RP BOS

Backup to Koji if he has an injury. Should be useful even if his save chances are minimal.
262reeb
      ID: 53234417
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 22:53
22.06 Sizemore, Grady OF BOS

Grady is on the comeback trail. Who knows if he keeps it up but in the 22nd round I figure why the hell not. Could be a steal or waiver wire fodder.

I did debate taking Bradley here but I was able to get him late so no worries :)
263reeb
      ID: 53234417
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 22:55
23.11 Doubront, Felix SP BOS

I love this pick this late. He showed signs of breaking out in the 2nd half last year and I'm hoping he can build on it this year.

Now if I can trade for Peavy my Red Sox starting rotation will be intact.
264reeb
      ID: 53234417
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 22:56
24.06 Bradley Jr., Jackie OF BOS

If Sizemore does not pan out I have his replacement waiting in the wings. Either way I will have a starting center fielder on a good offensive team.
265reeb
      ID: 53234417
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 22:58
25.11 Stubbs, Drew OF COL

Just taking a flyer at this point. Stubbs is average at best in almost every category and it looks like he will be platooning. If he pans out I get some real cheap SB's. Most likely he will be cut soon.
266Meatwads
      ID: 57134714
      Sun, Mar 23, 2014, 19:17
22.15 Wade Miley, SP, ARI

Not many obvious good starting pitchers remaining and I figured Miley had as good a shot as any remaining to sustain value throughout the season. At this point in the draft I don't expect these players to remain on my roster so there is really nothing special about this pick. If he has his best season of his career then he'll stick around, if not, then I'll find someone on the free agents to stream or replace him.
267Meatwads
      ID: 57134714
      Sun, Mar 23, 2014, 19:20
23.02 Russell Martin, C, PIT

This pick was made simply to have a backup at the catcher position. I don't expect Martin to have significant value but he should have a job. I thought about a couple other catchers in this spot but decided to go with Martin mostly because he's having a good spring. I don't usually give much weight to spring results so I expect Martin to end up back on the waiver-wire or be a serviceable backup on days when Wieters isn't available.
268Meatwads
      ID: 57134714
      Sun, Mar 23, 2014, 19:30
24.15 Junior Lake, OF, CHC
I made this selection for a few reasons. First, he appears to have an every day job. Second because I wanted to get some more offensive depth. Finally, he's slated to hit 5th in the lineup, albeit on probably the worst offense in baseball. Still, if I can get a middle of the order hitter this late in the draft it's worth a stab. I don't expect him to survive the season on my roster but I'm always open to being pleasantly surprised.

25.02 Trevor Plouffe, 3B, MIN
My final round pick was selected to add another hitter into the fold. Nothing too special about Plouffe but maybe he surprises me and has a season similar to 2012 when he hit 24 homers with a .455 SLG%. I didn't love the hitters remaining in the draft and I just took a stab on someone who appears to have a job. I would be borderline shocked if he survives the season on my roster but that's to be expected in such a deep league.
269WG
      ID: 59552022
      Sun, Mar 23, 2014, 23:55
14.14 Jhonny Peralta, SS, Stl

Was looking to fill MI slots with this and the 15 pick since I didn't have any MI yet. Peralta really stood out to me based on his power from the SS position. While he may no longer be a 20 HR hitter, he should offer decent counting stats hitting in the STL lineup, and last year he put up a .358 OBP and .457 SLG. A year older and off the juice, it might be hard for him to replicate those numbers, but should still offer above average SLG and a decent OBP for a SS.

15.03 Dee Gordon, SS, LAD

I think I was a bit fortuitous picking around this time as Dee Gordon Starting 2B talk was only then getting a lot of traction (though he didn't start Game 1 and then started Game 2 this year so who knows how this will play out going forward. This late in the draft I generally look for potential big power, big speed, young pitchers, or saves. Gordon has 40-50 SB upside if he plays a good chunk of the season, so I opted to go with him and fill my MI or 2B slot. This is also a semi hedge against Billy Hamilton in case he doesn't pan out and I am in need of SB.

16.14 Javier Baez, SS, ChC

Baez is not only one of the top prospects in the Minors, but he's also one of the most likely top prospects to debut at some point this year. At the time, Baez was still in camp and there was increasing talk that he might move to 2B and start the year with the big club. That didn't happen, but this pick was more a stash until Baez does inevitably come up and start mashing. Not much sense in projecting numbers with prospects but I always draft a few late, often reaching for them which I'm perfectly prepared to do. The payoffs could be huge and the alternate choices don't offer much more than what I can get 2, 3, 4 rounds from now in my opinion.

17.03 Archie Bradley, SP, Ari

Similar to Baez, Bradley is one of the top prospects in the game and due to the Patrick Corbin injury, is also close to making his MLB debut. Again, this isn't a pick where I look at the projections and see how it would fit in with my team. Instead, it's a pure upside speculation pick.

270WG
      ID: 59552022
      Mon, Mar 24, 2014, 00:03
18.14 George Springer, OF, Hou

I regret making this pick now. Springer might not/probably won't be up for a while so I'm looking at a dead spot. I have little patience in Fantasy Baseball so I will inevitably end up dropping him soon after the year starts. I still needed SP so I should have gone for an arm. Yordano Ventura would have been a good choice as he would satisfy my pitching need and my interest in young players/prosepcts.

19.03 Drew Smyly, SP, Det

Rebounded from a bad pick with what I thought/think is a good one. Smyly is on many breakout lists this year as he enters the Detroit rotation with the departure of Doug Fister. Not only will he be pitching for a great team, but he's also a very talented young SP. Most projections seem to have him around 1.27 WHIP and 3.75 ERA, which would be fine for a 19th rounder. Given his talent and upside, I wouldn't be surprised to see him better those numbers with a healthy amount of W and K.

20.14 Matt Joyce, OF, TB

Another bad pick. Taijuan Walker should have been my pick here but I didn't have my cheatsheet and so did not notice that he was available. Instead, I knew that I needed another OF and figured Joyce, while not a sexy pick, would offer respectable counting stats and decent percentages. Not much upside here though.

271WG
      ID: 59552022
      Mon, Mar 24, 2014, 00:13
21.03 Erik Johnson, SP, ChW

Was kicking myself for passing on Walker and so started looking for another young SP that offered some upside. Johnson is on a lot of top prospect lists, but he's generally in the 70-100 range and not usually considered to be a top prospect. Oddly though, he has a rotation spot seemingly lined up for him unlike most of the other prospects ahead of him on those lists. He pitched well last year and I'm just looking for some solid numbers out of my number 5 starter.

22.14 Tommy Milone, SP, Oak

Continued adding middling arms to my rotation after neglecting to draft them early on. Sensing that my SP staff will be on the weaker side barring some good adds. Milone is certainly no solution to that problem but he has pitched well in the past, is still pitching in Oakland, and is now in the starting rotation thanks to the A's injuries. At the very least, I can use him in his home starts.

23.03 Jonathan Schoop, 2B, Bal

Still needed a 2B here and so I went looking for anyone that could contribute. Schoop is still young and has had a hot spring that may have earned him the starting 2B job. I figured the upside was worth a gamble this late.

24.14 Gregory Polanco, OF, Pit

Just going for the Home Run ball at this point. The Pirates are allegedly shopping Tabata, probably meaning they are already looking to get Polanco into their lineup sooner rather than later. He's a top 10 prospect on many lists, so I figured it was worth holding onto him at the end of my roster rather than some other scrub that isn't a top 10 prospect.

25.03 Kevin Gausman, SP, Bal

Similar to the Polanco pick, I figured I'd rather have a guy with monster upside on my roster than one without. Gausman's role is still undefined, but he probably won't start or close, so he may not hold much value til much later in the year. He likely won't still be on my team at that point. Will likely drop him for a hot SP or to stream SP early in the year.
272Evan
      ID: 29181714
      Mon, Mar 24, 2014, 08:56
Pick 24.09 – Shawn Kelley (NYY) RP
The only reliever on the Yankees drafted so far not named Robertson. This is a speculative pickup that he’ll move into the closer’s role if Robertson gets hurt or falters. Robertson pitches lights-out when he has a day of rest and has been traditionally unreliable pitching on back-to-back days. Kelley had 71 strikeouts in 53.1 innings last season so he should help me in that regard if he doesn’t get a chance to close. The other closer opportunity would be Matt Thornton but he is having a bad preseason and seems to have the role as the “lefty” reliever. By not drafting closers early, I’m left with taking fliers on setup men.
273Jason
      ID: 522162410
      Mon, Mar 24, 2014, 11:18
1.16 Beltre, Adrian,3B,TEX
2.01.Harper,Bryce, OF, WAS

I choose the last position in the draft beacuse my special position in geographical, in the work and my personal life. In this situation I could pick two players at the same time, and avoid the too long waiting time for me (mainly I managed to it, sometimes no, I am sorry) The 16. position determinated my strategy in the first two round:looking around who are the best available players.

I was surprised to find Beltre and Harper at the end of the first round, so I didn’t need to think too much about my picking. Beltre is one of my favorite player, he produces very good percentages, and good at the other categories too, but not at stolen base. I hope his tightness not a real concern, and comes with me to run a good season.
I would have built a young team so I made the first step with Harper to the right direction. Harper’ss last year wasn’t so strong then I expected but the main reason for this was an injury. As far as I remember he started not so well, but later brought why i like him. Good %-s, Home runs, some steals, I was satisfied with my fisrt choises.
274twilson
      ID: 36222109
      Mon, Mar 31, 2014, 18:24
19.15 Darren O’Day, RP, BAL
There were some interesting names that left the board in the gap between my eighteenth and nineteenth picks. Highlights were Morales, Allen, and some of the starters. I can definitely see some contributors to the various squads in RIBC coming out of this portion of the draft.

I’m still really hurting at both 1B and relievers. I’m comfortable letting others have first choice of the remaining SP pool, so that’s out. I’m not excited by any of the middle infield names either, not that corner and outfield are much better. As a result, I chose to add depth at my weakest roster spots. I described my interest in O’Day in my 17.15 rationale. He is a frequent glue guy on the Milchian Magicians. O’Day can pretty much be penciled in for a very good ERA and WHIP with respectable strikeout numbers, and I can easily imagine a scenario in which Tommy Hunter loses the Orioles closing job.

20.02 Mitch Moreland, 1B, TEX
Through 19 rounds, my only 1B-eligible players are a platoon guy and a catcher. Not exactly a recipe for success. In the absence of other standout options, throwing another name into the mix seemed like the right way to go.

By ADP, Loney was the top candidate, but I just don’t have interest in him. I don’t see much potential growth, and his floor isn’t high enough to make up for it. Ike Davis was one of my first base targets last year; thank goodness I landed Rizzo in AAA instead. Davis has more upside than the other names on the table, but with his injury and the lack of guaranteed playing time, the risk is a bit too high for my taste. Logan Morrison is another guy with some past successes, but he has injury and playing time concerns of his own.

I went with Mitch Moreland. He had something of a down year last year, but much of that can be attributed to a low BABIP. His OBP is below average, but my team can handle a bit of a hit there if the power and RBI numbers are worth it. Moreland should be in the lineup most days despite a platoon split of his own, so hopefully I can match him with Lind to get a solid contribution from 1B. If both players have favorable matchups, Moreland will occupy my CI slot.
Rate this thread:
5 (top notch)
4 (even better)
3 (good stuff)
2 (lightweight)
1 (no value)
If you wish, you may rate this thread on scale of 1-5. Ratings should indicate how valuable or interesting you believe this thread would be to other users of this forum. A '5' means that this thread is a 'must read'. A '1' means that this is a complete waste of time.

If you have previously rated this thread, rating it again will delete your previous rating.

If you do not want to rate this thread, but want to see how others have rated it, then click the button without entering a rating, or else click here.

RotoGuru Baseball Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread


Self-edit this thread




Post a reply to this message: RIBC 2014: Rationale Collection thread

Name:
Email:
Message:
Click here to create and insert a link
Click here to insert a block of hidden (spoiler) text
Click here to insert a random spelling of Mientkiewicz
Ignore line feeds? no (typical)   yes (for HTML table input)


Viewing statistics for this thread
Period# Views# Users
Last hour11
Last 24 hours11
Last 7 days77
Last 30 days1616
Since Mar 1, 2007285391391