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0 Subject: RIBC 2014: Draft Rationales

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Fri, Mar 07, 2014, 21:55

This thread will contain all of the individual pick rationales for the 2014 RIBC draft. RIBC managers should supply those rationales in the Rationale Collection thread. You will not be able to post directly into this thread.

I expect that this thread will be updated daily.
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      ID: 330592710
     Mar 18, 6:06 pm
22.15 Miley, Wade - ARI - SP
Not many obvious good starting pitchers remaining and I figured Miley had as good a shot as any remaining to sustain value throughout the season. At this point in the draft I don't expect these players to remain on my roster so there is really nothing special about this pick. If he has his best season of his career then he'll stick around, if not, then I'll find someone on the free agents to stream or replace him.
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     Mar 18, 6:06 pm
22.16 Morrison, Logan - SEA - 1B
I'm not 100% sure where LoMo is going to be slotted in Lloyd McClendon's lineup or what his role is going to be in a crowded group of 1B/OF/DH on the roster, but they'll figure out a way to give him at bats, especially in games vs right-handers and when Logan starts enough games in the OF, he'll also provide me positional options coming off my bench.
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     Mar 18, 6:06 pm
23.01 Peralta, Joel - TAM - RP
I like Peralta's ratio help potential and K rate, and it was a coin toss between him and a handful of others.
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     Mar 18, 6:13 pm
23.02 Martin, Russell - PIT - C
This pick was made simply to have a backup at the catcher position. I don't expect Martin to have significant value but he should have a job. I thought about a couple other catchers in this spot but decided to go with Martin mostly because he's having a good spring. I don't usually give much weight to spring results so I expect Martin to end up back on the waiver-wire or be a serviceable backup on days when Wieters isn't available.
355Wazaaap Guy
      ID: 330592710
     Mar 18, 6:58 pm
23.03 Schoop, Jonathan - BAL - 2B
"Still needed a 2B here and so I went looking for anyone that could contribute. Schoop is still young and has had a hot spring that may have earned him the starting 2B job. I figured the upside was worth a gamble this late."
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     Mar 18, 7:09 pm
23.04 Semien, Marcus - CWS - 3B
Semien has posted some nice minor league stats (good power and speed along with OBP skills), and with Beckham hurt and Davidson not doing much this spring, I am thinking he may get a chance to play some to start the season. He provides me with a backup 3B-CI and if he can stick in the lineup, would probably get 2B eligibility. In a perfect world, he will turn into a super utility guy.
357Seattle Zen
      ID: 330592710
     Mar 18, 7:09 pm
23.05 Jaso, John - OAK - C
I'm going with Jaso because he is a great OPB contributor, is on the most profitable side of the platoon and should see quite a few at bats at DH. Word is when he is in the lineup he will bat second, that should get him extra PAs and runs. I believe if the draft was done the day before real Opening Day and the A's announced he is the #2 batter and will see plenty of DH days, he would be drafted higher. Of course, the A's also have two other catchers and Jaso may not get those PAs after all. We'l"l see."
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     Mar 18, 7:35 pm
23.06 Escobar, Yunel - TAM - SS
Since Rutledge isnít guaranteed much playing time, I still needed another MI. I had considered taking Yasmani Grandal here, but I didnít identify anybody who was likely to draft a catcher before my next pick, and Grandal wasn't likely to be the next one taken anyway. Besides, the consequences of missing out on the 2 remaining MI I find acceptable would have been disastrous.

These remaining MI were Scooter Gennett and Yunel Escobar: Gennett actually had good stats last year, but a sky-high BABIP was likely the cause, and he probably will have to split time with Rickie Weeks. Escobar has a secure job, and he plays SS, which would give me a backup in case of an Andrus injury.

Escobar looks like heíll be bad, but not soul-crushingly terrible, so thereís that. 4 of his 7 seasons have actually been very good, but the last one of those was in 2011, so it seems like they may be permanently in the past.

An intriguing fact that probably means nothing but was enough to help me bite the bullet: Last year Escobarís batted ball distance rose by 21.3 feet, the 2nd most in the MLB!!

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     Mar 18, 8:09 pm
23.07 Almonte, Abraham - SEA - OF
Almonte seems to be getting most of the centerfield starts and leadoff duties in spring training. From what I gather, no one on the Mariner roster is close to him defensively in CF. If you see him on the tube he kind of looks like Kirby Puckett out there. Last year in the minors he had quite a season .300/.394/.482 with 26 steals (67 walks in 440 AB). He's a switch-hitter and makes pretty good contact.

Almonte came to the U.S. from the Dominican Republic. The Yankees signed him as a 16-year-old but he started drinking shortly after his father died of a stomach ailment the next year in 2007. There's an interesting
article I found that tells a little of his story here.

ďI think he is going to be a major league everyday center fielder and a guy who can possibly go to multiple All-Star Games,Ē said Rainiers manager John Stearns. ďThatís how high I am on him, and I donít like to get too high on a kid. But with a guy like Almonte, the sky is the limit.Ē
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     Mar 18, 8:11 pm
23.08 Hughes, Phil - MIN - SP
As a Yankee fan, Iíve seen this many times before. Javier Vazquez, Carl Pavano, Ian Kennedy, and AJ Burnett are recent examples; pitchers who have left the Yankees to find immediate success somewhere else. The drafting of Hughes follows that logic. He is a fly ball pitcher which made him a nightmare at Yankee Stadium (71 of his 101 home runs allowed the last five seasons were here) and now he moves to the big park in Minnesota. As the #2 pitcher in their rotation, heíll provide a good k/rate and should have some sneaky success. This is a gut call, but I would NOT be surprised if at the end of the year, he ends up with around 15 wins and the lowest ERA/WHIP of his career. The New York pressure is off and after watching this once ďcanít miss prospectĒ over the years, I sincerely think heíll have the chance to breathe.
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     Mar 18, 8:33 pm
23.09 Wilson, Brian - LAD - RP
He used to be good? We are at the point of the draft where it's luck and a prayer. Doubt he is on my team in May but shall see if that hunch is correct.
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     Mar 18, 10:06 pm
23.10 Medica, Tommy - SDG - UTL
Another hail mary. Medica doesn't really have a spot right now. I'm hoping he hits his way into the lineup. He seems like he has the potential to put up .350/450 line if given the opportunity. At this point anybody that has the potential for that is worth drafting.
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     Mar 18, 10:06 pm
23.11 Doubront, Felix - BOS - SP
I love this pick this late. He showed signs of breaking out in the 2nd half last year and I'm hoping he can build on it this year.

Now if I can trade for Peavy my Red Sox starting rotation will be intact.

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     Mar 18, 10:12 pm
23.12 Bourjos, Peter - STL - OF
I was planning to pick a high strikeout relief guy here, as I like to do with my end picks, but for some reason I searched for Bourjos, who wasn't in my queue, and he came up as undrafted. Perfect! I still feel low on runs and stolen bases, and he (like Melky) might hit second in a high-scoring lineup.

This leaves me with more OF than I intended to collect, but it's another perfect late round pick.

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     Mar 18, 10:12 pm
23.13 Morse, Michael - SFO - OF
Still don't have enough pitchers to fill out my starting slots, but I just can't pass up Morse here - gives me a 7th OF eligible player, which should allow me to do a far better job of maximizing games played at the position than I usually do, and he - should I need to regularly use him - can help at R, RBI and SLG as a projected everyday player if he resembles his 2010-2012 version. Debated going with Bourjos and ended up slotting Morse 1/Bourjos 2 in my queue - with Bourjos going off the board with the pick previous to mine.
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     Mar 18, 10:35 pm
23.14 McGee, Jake - TAM - RP
Throwing darts at a list of middle relievers with high K/IP and hoping for good ratios and a few vultured wins
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     Mar 18, 11:34 pm
23.15 Morton, Charlie - PIT - SP
The 64 innings I got from Morton over the last month or two of 2013 was one of the unsung contributions to my AAA PCL championship. He led the league in GB% while still managing to a K/9 rate of 6.6. His biggest negative is a significant platoon split. I can certainly see a scenario in which Morton resides for the entire season on my roster, which is all I can ask for a 23rd round pick.
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     Mar 18, 11:44 pm
23.16 Gennett, Scooter - MIL - 2B
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     Mar 19, 12:03 am
24.01 Chisenhall, Lonnie - CLE - 3B
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     Mar 19, 12:03 am
24.02 Eovaldi, Nathan - MIA - SP
He throws the ball really hard. Strikeouts have eluded him in past seasons, but heís had a good spring in that department. This is a pick hoping that success continues into the regular season. Iím not particularly hopeful, itíll be easy to make a judgment after a couple starts. If it doesnít work out, I can move on relatively quickly. I also thought about adding a setup man here.
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     Mar 19, 12:03 am
24.03 Rondon, Bruce - DET - RP
Again throwing darts at a list of middle relievers with high K/IP and hoping for good ratios and a few vultured wins. Threw over 100 pitches at 100-mph plus last year. Could be second in line for saves as well, if Nathan should show his age.

One more dart still left in the bag for pick 25. Dartboard has seven names on it, so I shoudl be able to hit one.

      ID: 330592710
     Mar 19, 12:15 am
24.04 Quintana, Jose - CWS - SP
The good, particularly in the 24th round of this draft - 2013 stat line of 200 IP / 164 K / 3.51 ERA / 1.22 WHIP

The bad, from yesterday - "White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana allowed a whopping nine runs on seven hits and two walks without getting a single out in his Cactus League start Tuesday afternoon against the Aís. Had it been a regular-season outing, it would have been the worst stat line in Major League Baseball history. And thatís not hyperbole. Thatís fact."

I'm sure glad spring training stats don't mean anything ... well, at least I hope they don't ...

      ID: 330592710
     Mar 19, 12:26 am
24.05 Ramos, A.J. - MIA - RP
Time for some relief guys who gets strikeouts and might get saves. Not sure a Marlin reliever is the best place to look here, but Ramos put up decent numbers last year, and maybe the Fish trade Cishek. Ramos is unlikely to survive April on my roster, as he looks like the first guy to drop should a need for an acquisition arise.
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     Mar 19, 12:26 am
24.06 Bradley Jr., Jackie - BOS - OF
If Sizemore does not pan out I have his replacement waiting in the wings. Either way I will have a starting center fielder on a good offensive team.
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     Mar 19, 9:15 am
24.07 Marisnick, Jake - MIA - OF
Dart board here. Praying he wins the job instead of the other guy.
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     Mar 19, 9:22 am
24.08 Nolasco, Ricky - MIN - SP
Not a ton of upside but has always been a strong sabermetric pitcher who never yielded expected results. I like the ballpark fit for a fly all pitcher. Ironically, AFTER I made the pick I started liking it more. This guy had 13 wins, 3.7 era, 1.21 wh"ip and 7.5 k/9 last year. He was also named opening day starter for whatever that's worth. Honestly the profile is overqualified for round 24 so I like what I found here."
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     Mar 19, 9:23 am
24.09 Kelley, Shawn - NYY - RP
The only reliever on the Yankees drafted so far not named Robertson. This is a speculative pickup that heíll move into the closerís role if Robertson gets hurt or falters. Robertson pitches lights-out when he has a day of rest and has been traditionally unreliable pitching on back-to-back days. Kelley had 71 strikeouts in 53.1 innings last season so he should help me in that regard if he doesnít get a chance to close. The other closer opportunity would be Matt Thornton but he is having a bad preseason and seems to have the role as the ďleftyĒ reliever. By not drafting closers early, Iím left with taking fliers on setup men.
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     Mar 19, 10:37 am
24.10 Griffin, A.J. - OAK - SP
I was trying to decide Griffin or Grandal here. I wanted both but figured a SP was more important than a backup C, so I took Griffin and hoped Grandal would make the turn. Of course, Grandal went the very next pick.

I've always liked Griffin as a 5th starter. He has flexor tendinitis and is shut down another 2 1/2 weeks or so. That's ok though. If not for the tendinitis he would have been gone 7 rounds earlier. Of the remaining SP I think his Whip/K combo was by far the best. If he can cut down on the gopher balls he can perform like a top 25 pitcher (career MLB 1.13 whip 7.5 K/9; minors 1.02 whip 8.7 K/9). Just hope he gets into action soon.

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     Mar 19, 10:48 am
24.11 Grandal, Yasmani - SDG - 0
Yasmani had a lot of hype surrounding his debut in 2012, but last year he got hit with a PED suspension and then tore his ACL, so heís flying under the radar now. Heís certainly unproven, but his minor league track record suggests heíll be a very patient hitter with a high OBP. He has matched that expectation at the MLB level so far, with a .380 OBP (driven by an insane 14.7 walk rate [I know, small sample size]) in his first 334 at bats.

Grandal also is expected to have a decent amount of power. Most projections have his ISO around .140, which would be fine. It was thought that he would start the season on the DL, but he healed much faster than expected, and played in his first spring training game almost a week ago.

380Seattle Zen
      ID: 330592710
     Mar 19, 10:48 am
24.12 Furcal, Rafael - MIA - 2B
He is supposedly the Marlins leadoff hitter. Hopefully MIA stands for Miami and not... Old man, missed all of 2013, was replacement level in StL in 2012, doesn't steal bases any more. Will be Miami's second baseman and hopefully will be healthy enough to play in the first 10 games. I'm just hoping for a MI gap filler who will score a few runs, not asking for much. Get hurt and I will feed your carcass to the pigs. Yes, I'm running out of pithy rationales.
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     Mar 19, 11:09 am
24.13 Skaggs, Tyler - LAA - SP
Another young starter with quite a bit of upside, Skaggs has flashed some increased velocity this spring and, as a result, has gotten a little love from some of the prognosticators. I still need a catcher but not seeing anyone who sticks out, decided to go with Skaggs instead.
382Wazaaap Guy
      ID: 330592710
     Mar 19, 11:42 am
24.14 Polanco, Gregory - PIT - OF
Just going for the Home Run ball at this point. The Pirates are allegedly shopping Tabata, probably meaning they are already looking to get Polanco into their lineup sooner rather than later. He's a top 10 prospect on many lists, so I figured it was worth holding onto him at the end of my roster rather than some other scrub that isn't a top 10 prospect.
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     Mar 19, 4:16 pm
24.15 Lake, Junior - CHC - OF
I made this selection for a few reasons. First, he appears to have an every day job. Second because I wanted to get some more offensive depth. Finally, he's slated to hit 5th in the lineup, albeit on probably the worst offense in baseball. Still, if I can get a middle of the order hitter this late in the draft it's worth a stab. I don't expect him to survive the season on my roster but I'm always open to being pleasantly surprised.
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     Mar 19, 3:48 pm
24.16 Hernandez, David - ARI - RP
Thought about taking an SP6 here, but I'll go the free agent route if I want another starter and monitor early performance. Also considered a MI for backup but think extra games played with folks this low would harm my composites more than help. So what the heck, I went with another MR with a good K/9 instead, and Hernandez's is over 10. Now to hope my K/9 does not turn into a dog.
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     Mar 19, 3:48 pm
25.01 Van Slyke, David - LAD - OF
A little out of the box thinking here with the Dodger backup corner outfielder, as Van Slyke was not drafted in the other four RIBCs, nor should he have been. But, the Dodgers play three games this season before 27 teams even play one. For two of them, their regular LF Carl Crawford is not even making the trip to Australia while on paternity leave. Scott should see a start down under, perhaps two. So why not sneak in a few plate appearances for my team to kick start the season and maybe accrue a counting stat or two if I am lucky, and since I always fall short of the OF games played max, it is not like this is going to cost me a Mike Trout game in late September.
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     Mar 19, 4:15 pm
25.02 Plouffe, Trevor - MIN - 3B
My final round pick was selected to add another hitter into the fold. Nothing too special about Plouffe but maybe he surprises me and has a season similar to 2012 when he hit 24 homers with a .455 SLG%. I didn't love the hitters remaining in the draft and I just took a stab on someone who appears to have a job. I would be borderline shocked if he survives the season on my roster but that's to be expected in such a deep league.
387Wazaaap Guy
      ID: 330592710
     Mar 19, 4:40 pm
25.03 Gausman, Kevin - BAL - RP
Similar to the Polanco pick, I figured I'd rather have a guy with monster upside on my roster than one without. Gausman's role is still undefined, but he probably won't start or close, so he may not hold much value til much later in the year. He likely won't still be on my team at that point. Will likely drop him for a hot SP or to stream SP early in the year.
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     Mar 19, 4:40 pm
25.04 Mesoraco, Devin - CIN - C
Not much to distinguish the catchers who are left in my mind; took Mesoraco since he figures to get the bulk of the playing time, plays half his games in a hitters park, at 26 should be coming into his prime, and has put up some good power numbers in the minors.
389Seattle Zen
      ID: 330592710
     Mar 19, 4:40 pm
25.05 Norris, Derek - OAK - C
Derrick Norris doesn't wear a mask to protect his face from the baseball, he wears a mask to protect the baseball from his face kicking its ass. Derrick Norris hits lefties like Mr. T does fools - again and again with great success. Don't call Derrick Norris a thief, he ran to second base while you were throwing the ball because that's HIS base, damnit, watchagonnadoboutit? His tears cure cancer, too bad he never cries.

I could go on and on, this is fun again.

      ID: 330592710
     Mar 19, 5:01 pm
25.06 De La Rosa, Jorge - COL - SP
This roster spot will likely rotate between players on a day-to-day basis. Most of the time it will be occupied by a spot starter, a fill-in batter, or a reliever. De La Rosa is decent and pitches on opening day at Miami, so Iím beginning with him.

If I wasnít able to get De La Rosa, my backup plan was to make Eric Sogard an honorary pick. In what has become an unfortunate theme recently, Nerd Power finished in 2nd place.

      ID: 330592710
     Mar 19, 5:51 pm
25.07 Franco, Maikel - PHI - 3B
Pretty much anyone still out there will be available as a FA soon enough so I didn't bother with this pick too much. Franco is a highly ranked prospect and seems likely headed for AAA to start the season. His first MLB action will be to either replace Asche or fill in for R Howard. Since I have both Asche & Howard on my roster I figured I better roster him for at least a few days. Technically he's still in a position battle with Asche as they haven't named their starter yet. Anyway, he probably won't be on my roster long.
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     Mar 19, 6:01 pm
25.08 Cook, Ryan - OAK - RP
Speculative closer grab, nothing more and nothing less. I seem to draft him every season and he puts up solid numbers for a reliever. Iím not confident in Jim Johnson even though they threw a lot of money at him.
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     Mar 19, 7:26 pm
25.09 Fields, Josh - HOU - RP
Nearly took him in round 23 and 24 so was happy to see him atop my queue to use for the final round. A potential contributor in a tough category to fill. Who knows if he gets a chance to close or how well he might do, but this is as good a final pick as one can hope for. Really completed what was for me a terrific draft and I hope to see my team contending in the top 3-4 teams.
      ID: 330592710
     Mar 19, 9:23 pm
25.10 Ozuna, Marcell - MIA - OF
He was the "other guy" in my previous post. He's been terrible this spring but has potential. Didn't realize I was a little short on pitching so will probably be dropping at least 1 outfielder, possibly 2.
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     Mar 19, 9:23 pm
25.11 Stubbs, Drew - COL - OF
Just taking a flyer at this point. Stubbs is average at best in almost every category and it looks like he will be platooning. If he pans out I get some real cheap SB's. Most likely he will be cut soon.
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     Mar 19, 9:54 pm
25.12 Bell, Heath - TAM - RP
I don't believe in Heath Bell, but I believe in TB. If they can turn 2011 Fernando Rodney (4.5 ERA and 8 walks per 9 innings) into 2012 Fernando Rodney (one of the greatest seasons in relief pitching history ), then maybe they can do the same for Heath Bell. And since Grant Balfour has a hidden injury and is already complaining of a dead arm in Spring training, this seems like a fair 25th round gamble on finding 20 saves.
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     Mar 19, 9:54 pm
25.13 Lindstrom, Matt - CWS - RP
I was looking to buy a lottery ticket for saves here and had Josh Fields at the top of my queue ... and jkaye picked him up four picks prior to mine. Lindstrom was second in my queue - Nate Jones still hasn't been named as the Sox closer and Lindstrom is simply a handcuff pick for me at this point. I'd feel better about it if Lindstrom was the clear #2 choice ... but then he'd no doubt not have been available here.
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     Mar 19, 9:54 pm
25.14 Bastardo, Antonio - PHI - RP
My third RP dart of my last three rounds. Amazingly, after taking Jake McGee in round 23, I set up a queue of RPs for the remainder of the draft and the top two names were Rondon and Bastardo, who both survived. It seemed like most teams were taking spare hitters in the last couple of rounds and leaving RPs alone.

With these last three middle relievers, I now have five RPs in total, only two of which are closers (Uehara and Romo). I'm satisfied with the lot.

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     Mar 19, 10:29 pm
25.15 Mejia, Jenrry - NYM - SP
I know Iíve taken starters with my previous three picks, but why stop when Iím still finding names that interest me? Mejia doesnít sound likely to begin the season in the Mets rotation, but thereís enough of a chance that I figured I would take a flyer on him. If he gets sent to the minors, heíll be an easy drop. If not, he could be a very nice source of quality innings. Mejia was excellent in a tiny 27 inning sample last year, putting up a 2.46 xFIP.
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     Mar 20, 1:31 am
25.16 Guzman, Jesus - HOU - OF
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