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0 Subject: Gurupie 20 - 2014 Regular Season Discussion

Posted by: Species
- [6235110] Wed, Mar 19, 2014, 00:23

Okay........the draft is complete, and I have (hopefully) entered in all of the draft results into ESPN all over again. Please review your teams for accuracy. There are a lot of Rodriguez', etc so I could have made errors.

All players are now on waivers and are open for pickup through the normal waiver process.

Get your lineups in for the 20th/21st for the Australian games! Good luck to you all!!
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464Species
      ID: 54740122
      Fri, Oct 03, 2014, 23:52
bh's arguments are entertaining but pointless. He entered into a contract to make a trade. He can't put the hotdog back. My ruling is you must surrender a higher pick due to your inability to fulfill the trade.

This does bring up an interesting quandry for next year's Prospect Draft. Guru traded bh his 3rd roumd pick. What if he wants to keep a prospect? You could look at it two ways:

- Guru must be forced to adhere to the terms of the trade and keep no prospects, thus having the 3rd he traded.
- Guru could keep a prospect (or two for that matter) and have to surrender a higher pick.

I guess I am looking ahead to a situation that may not occur, but bh and I talked about it and I wondered what I would do.....as I don't believe I have ever seen a 3rd round prospect pick traded before.
465Bh
      ID: 5522112
      Sat, Oct 04, 2014, 00:10
First of all, trading the pick forfeits Guru's right to keep a third prospect. Unless, of course, he wants to go through with it, in which case I am entitled to his second pick, by New Jersey theft law.

Last point on the hot dog- the vendor hadn't made it yet (I hadn't made or traded the return pick yet), so he just tells me to get lost without any exchange. Now, I could find another way to pay if I really wanted the hot dog (like Jaydog, who essentially gave his watch instead), but in most cases, the deal is voided. How do I know? It actually happened to me today. In this case, I had a 5 and no 1's and he didn't have change. Unlike this case, he actually offered it to me for free, but in the end we just parted ways.

Anyway, I disagree but won't push it further. It's not fair to you that I am a superior manager, so I will accept this handicap. WG probably needs the help.
466Bh
      ID: 5522112
      Sat, Oct 04, 2014, 00:12
Oh wait, missed the point on Guru. He traded his third rounder, not his third pick. He is free to use the first two picks, with to keep or to pick. No issue here.
467Slizz
      ID: 227222719
      Sat, Oct 04, 2014, 13:40
Bh - that being said, we all love you. This league wouldn't be as awesome as it is without you.
468Judy
      ID: 54203110
      Sat, Oct 04, 2014, 18:40
Actually the WAWA quarter pounder is the best hot dog around...
469GO
      ID: 344132921
      Sun, Oct 05, 2014, 11:51
Next you'll say Wawa subs are better than anybody... with all these great hot dog joints in NJ and Philly Wawa can't hang with these greats.
470Judy
      ID: 54203110
      Wed, Oct 08, 2014, 01:07
Nah. Lee's hoagies are the best. As for the hot dogs, I like them naked -- no ketchup, mustard or any other stuff on them...the WAWA roll could be better though...
471GO
      ID: 065299
      Fri, Oct 10, 2014, 11:20
Never had Lee's, will have to investigate... my favorite local place is Dicostanza's who supposedly invented the italian hoagie... and then Capriottis for turkey related items. or Primo. but they've gotten too expensive.
473blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Tue, Oct 14x, 2014, 16:39
Hey YR, where are all your cool stats posts?
474youngroman
      ID: 57047243
      Tue, Oct 14x, 2014, 18:09
bh - I will try to download the data next week and see if I find some odd statistics.
475blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Wed, Oct 15, 2014, 09:56
One thing I noticed - I got about 60 runs and 60 RBIs from players I had for 6 or fewer games. Most of that is from David Freese, but that still means micro-management got me about 15 points.
476Ref
      ID: 55156513
      Wed, Oct 15, 2014, 14:07
That doesn't take into account the loss of OBP or opportunity cost of guys you had to drop or other guys taken by someone else you were unable to get. As minimal as that cost may be, I doubt it is zero. I know it cost me a lot by having to drop guys I couldn't get back and that was mostly from injuries I simply had to cover to make my lineup legal.
477blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Wed, Oct 15, 2014, 14:40
Glad you brought that up. I'd say it had the opposite effect. Sure, dropping Jarrod Dyson, Brock Holt, JD Martinez, and Danny Santana weren't perfect moves, but there are a ton of players I held long term after a quick pickup, including Ender Inciarte, Tommy La Stella, Gregor Blanco, and Jose Ramirez. If I hadn't picked these guys up, someone else would have.

And this isn't just a couple points. Take away 60 runs and 60 RBIs, and I lose 5 points in RBIs and TEN points in runs. Maybe it did hurt my OBP, but it can't possibly be by that much.

YR posted stats like this a couple years ago - would love to see that again.
478youngroman
      ID: 57047243
      Wed, Oct 15, 2014, 15:32
I will look into the short-term players from 2013 and 2014 when I have the data next week. it seems that this is an interesting topic.

I still have the data from 2012 and none other than blue hen led the league in number of players with 10 or less games. he had 52. these 52 players managed:
112 games played
42 runs = .375 per game
31 RBI = .277
10 HR = .089
3 SB = .027
.267 OBP

1318 games of all his other players:
735 runs = .558
677 RBI = = .514
212 HR = .161
143 SB = .108
.363 OBP

looking at these stats, these short term players do significantly worse than the regulars, but they get some counting stats. If I remove these "bad" stats from season totals BH would have lost 5 pts, but would still have finished 3rd.

R -2
RBI -8
HR -1
SB -1
OBP +7

It would be really interesting to field a team with the best or 2nd best free agents on each day and see how such a team would do. I wouldn't rule out that such a team could win the league. if this is true there is tremendous value out there each day. you just need to identify the real good matchups or be lucky.
479blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Wed, Oct 15, 2014, 16:03
Move over Slizz, YR is my new favorite Gurupie.

This is awesome, although I'd guess it's almost entirely luck in my case.
480blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Wed, Oct 15, 2014, 16:06
Looking at the totals, seems like I gained 12 points in counting stats, and lost 7 points in OBP, thus the +5. I would imagine I'm at +12 or so in 2014, which is still probably enough to win.
481Ref
      ID: 55156513
      Sat, Oct 18, 2014, 16:00
So 5 points in 2012. Also have to remember that other teams have guys they pick up for off days and they count too. Also, if they are good enough for that one day and are still dropped, someone else gets them. This also doesn't account for pitchers. There you take a double hit in whip and era if you aren't good and even if you are avg, it still doesn't ensure counting stat in W, S or even K.

If you are covering days with scrubs you also could hit limits early and not be able to fill that slot with your stud at the end of the year.

I'm not saying you shouldn't cover off days, but there are pitfalls. Having open slots to do it and/or dropping guys you don't want to drop is key for me. I love the strategy of these leagues where you have to make tough decisions. You win some. You lose some.
482blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Mon, Oct 20, 2014, 10:23
I finished pitching in RIBC this year on about Sept 8, and outfield Sept 20 or so. It didn't actually help that much.
483youngroman
      ID: 57047243
      Thu, Oct 23, 2014, 14:38
I have the first stats of the 2014 season.

blue hen leads the league in hitters that played in 10 or less games with 78. Ref and WG tie for 2nd with 41 players followed by mjd, Toral, bmd, Slizz and yr.

the 78 players from blue hen accumulate for 184 games and approximately 657 at bats, which is pretty much the number a regular player will get. so lets look at how good his 10th man did:

OBP .290
HR 13
R 79
RBI 75
SB 6

the counting stats are not that bad. I guess most of use would be happy if a slot would generate 13 HRs with 75+ R/RBI.

the manager who showed the best skill in picking short-term players was slizz. his stats:

21 players
53 games
OBP .335
HR 7
R 24
RBI 22
SB 4

good OBP, HR, R and RBI totals. HR and SB ratio per game, as well as OBP are even better than his total team numbers.
484blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Mon, Oct 27, 2014, 15:20
Good stuff Roman. Given the choice, I'd have made those moves again.

I found a great article about the Sixers tanking and it reminded me of Species.

The Sixers took the rules to their logical extension, and made the system's absurdity obvious. They blew up a playoff-contending team to draft someone too injured to play that season (Nerlens Noel), then followed it up the next draft with picks of Joel Embiid and Dario Saric, players who might not see the court this season. All of these moves are understandable, if not savvy. In a vacuum, none of these moves looks especially brash. But as a collection of decisions, they reveal a bold scheme, one in which being bad is as much the point as it is a natural consequence of rebuilding.

Here's hoping the Sixers have as much luck as Species looks to!
485GO
      ID: 065299
      Mon, Oct 27, 2014, 15:26
The Sixers plan has been pretty awesome. Love that they got tired of mediocrity and wised up... getting the #8 seed every year gets you nowhere. The city seems to really be behind them too cause they can actually see the vision of the plan. Compared to Amaro and the Phillies banging their head against the wall and getting nowhere with band-aids.
486Slizz
      ID: 227222719
      Mon, Oct 27, 2014, 17:41
Hahaha GO, if you listen to 97.5's Mike Misanelli he says the same thing. Phillies fans will be accepting of it as long as it's made clear there's a plan to get them back to the World Series.

Good stuff, yr!
487youngroman
      ID: 57047243
      Mon, Oct 27, 2014, 19:07
some G20 trivia:

1. which 2 hitters hit a home run for 4 different G20 teams in 2014?
small hint: they both play the same position
2. which players had the highest/lowest OBP in G20 in 2014? what was their OBP?
minimum requirement: 10 games played.
3. which 2 players were on the most G20 teams during the 2014 season? on how many teams were those players?
4. which 2 players hit 10 home runs in 4 consecutive seasons (2011-2014) for 4 different G20 teams?
5. which player played the most G20 games the last 4 seasons? how many games did he play?
small hint: it is almost a tie with one of his G20 team mates.

and some trivia about the 2014 pitching performances (not specific to G20):
6. which pitcher hit the most home runs?
7. did any pitcher steal a base?
8. how many pitchers recorded no out?
9. what is the highest IP total from all the pitchers with a 0.00 ERA?
10. what is the highest IP total from all the pitchers with a 0.00 WHIP?
488Ref
      ID: 55156513
      Mon, Oct 27, 2014, 23:30
Good stuff YR.

The answer to 7 is yes. 6. I think was Bumgarner. The rest I'd be guessing.
489Species
      ID: 2471649
      Tue, Oct 28, 2014, 09:33
484: Thanks????
490blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Tue, Oct 28, 2014, 10:21
I don't think Nate Jones recorded an out.

I like Beltre for the multi-team questions and possibly also the most games. Also Cano for most games.

10 HR on 4 teams in 4 years - Adam Dunn? Adam LaRoche?

Lowest OBP might be Nick Franklin.

491youngroman
      ID: 57047243
      Tue, Oct 28, 2014, 13:34
4 questions are solved:
#5 is Robinson Cano with 635 games, followed by Hunter Pence with 634 games. both a solid core of my team
#6 is Bumgarner with 4 HR's
#7 is yes, Kershaw and Joe Kelly stole a base
#8 is Nate Jones. 2 games, 4 earned runs, no outs

more hints:
#1 home runs for 4 different G20 teams
they are both catchers

#2 highest/lowest OBP
highest OBP is obvious. an injury cut his season short, otherwise he would have led MLB as well.
the G20 player with the lowest OBP barely hit over the Mendoza line, is currently starting in every game of the world series while hitting below the line

#3 players on most G20 teams
is tough to guess or even give a hint. blue hen, Ref, WG and Toral had both of these players under contract. both qualify at 3B.

#4 10 homeruns for 4 different teams in 4 seasons
both were real life team mates in 2013. both hit 10 home runs for 10 consecutive seasons (2005 - 2014)

#9 + #10 most innings with 0.00 ERA/WHIP
just guess the innings number. how high do you think it is? I guess it is lower than you think. I myself never heard of these 2 pitchers. for both of them the number of innings is their career total.
492Toral
      Leader
      ID: 2111201313
      Tue, Oct 28, 2014, 15:58
#3 Brock Holt?
493blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Tue, Oct 28, 2014, 16:54
#2 is Tulowitzki and Moustakas

#1 is Welington Castillo and Jarrod Saltalamacchia

#3 is probably Freese and Dominguez. I assume more than 4 teams.

#4 might be Aramis or Soriano, but I can't think of teammates who fit the bill.
494blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Tue, Oct 28, 2014, 17:03
Or LaRoche and Dunn, teammates in 2013.
495Ref
      ID: 55156513
      Tue, Oct 28, 2014, 18:28
Id think #3 is Freese. But I did have a lot of players who qualified at 3B. Thanks a lot Mustakas for sucking so bad.
496youngroman
      ID: 57047243
      Wed, Oct 29, 2014, 05:21
#1 no its not Castillo or Salty

#2 Moustakas (HR last night) and Tulo are correct

#3 Freese is one of them. he was on 7 different teams.

#4 another hint: in 2014 they played for Detroit and St. Louis
497blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Wed, Oct 29, 2014, 09:54
How about Grandal and Flowers?

Valbuena and Olt?
498blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Wed, Oct 29, 2014, 09:55
#4 Torii Hunter is the Detroit guy.
499beastiemiked
      ID: 5911312710
      Wed, Oct 29, 2014, 23:44
Peralta and Hunter
500youngroman
      ID: 57047243
      Thu, Oct 30, 2014, 06:11
#1 Grandal is one of the 2 catchers with a HR for 4 G20 teams. the other was Ruiz
#3 Valbuena is the 2nd G20 journeyman
#4 are Hunter and Peralta hit 10 home runs for 4 seasons on 4 teams.

#9 + #10
most innings pitched with
- 0.00 ERA: Carson Smith, 8.1 IP (September callup)
- 0.00 WHIP: Melvin Mercedes, 2 IP (1 August game)
501blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Tue, Nov 04, 2014, 10:42
Folks, I'm looking to deal Colin Moran to make room for prospects who don't play the same position as Joey Gallo.

There's a great ESPN article about him. Here's the good part:

The sixth overall pick of the 2013 draft by the Miami Marlins, Moran was surprisingly dealt to the Astros on July 31. The former UNC Tar Heel has the best hit tool of any player on this list, thanks in large part to his willingness to go the other way, as well as his solid pitch-recognition skills. Power is never going to be a large part of his game, though he can put the ball into the left-center field gap and will turn on fastballs to take them out to right field.

502Species
      ID: 2471649
      Tue, Nov 11, 2014, 00:48
Moran is WELL behind Corey Seager and Miguel Sano on that list :)

Congratulations to Team Species - the owner of BOTH Rookies of the Year! Jose Abreu and Jacob deGrom!
503blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Tue, Nov 11, 2014, 10:09
So much for our informal policy of not denigrating players on other teams. That said, both Sano and Seager were on the list, so to be clear, ESPN's Keith Law was stating (not implying) that Moran has a better hit tool than either Sano or Seager. Just saying.

And since the floodgates are open, I'd like to formally welcome Jacob deGrom into the club that includes Chris Coghlan, Jason Jennings, Andrew Bailey, Bobby Crosby, and the immortal Pat Listach.

Man, I miss baseball.
504Species
      ID: 2471649
      Tue, Nov 11, 2014, 11:49
LOL. Touche'.

My crack wasn't intended as a negative on Moran as much as a promotion of Seager and Sano. :) But, point taken........and I do encourage (if not insist) on the informally formal policy of not denigrating other players. But it is a fact that Seager and Sano are higher on that list.....and its not like I said Moran sucks or denigrated him in any way.
505GO
      ID: 065299
      Tue, Nov 11, 2014, 11:54
Jose Abreu sucks! Now we're even.
506blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Tue, Nov 11, 2014, 11:59
Fun fact: I almost picked up deGrom at one point just so I could have three Jakes - with Odorizzi and Arrieta. Someone with those three anchoring a staff would have done quite well in 2014.
507blue hen
      ID: 4739168
      Fri, Nov 14, 2014, 16:32
Looks like Giancarlo Stanton is about to sign the biggest deal in MLB history.

BMD 299: Wow, seems like Pete got raped.

Judy 301: how is a trade of 4 guys 100% owned plus another guy equal to 4 guys, with the only one owned 100% on the DL.

Ref 303: I am trying to make sense out if this...but failing.

Toral 308: It would be nice to see Pete Ns rationale for the trade.

Perm Dude 309: I was just about to ask the same, Toral.

mjd 310: I want to hear Petes side too, but Im not waiting on his explanation to veto it.

Ref 311: Not sure what is going on here, but for perhaps the first time ever, I see a deal which can really upset the balance of the league with minimal (if any) impact in the future for Pete.

WG 325: I have difficulty forecasting any timeframe in which Petes team benefits from making this deal.

Nerf 336: I tried to look at the upside of Petes take in the trade and while there is more long-term potential there, it doesnt begin to cancel out the short-term gain for a team that is already very good.

Tosh 339: Pete would likely not be seeing a competitive edge to this trade until 2016.

Judy 340: I do not see Stanton as equal to 3 keepers. The guy cant stay healthy!

WG 351: All those guys that Pete is trading have a ton of current and short-term value by any metrics... He might think he is helping himself for the future but to me it seems the rest of us are getting screwed for the next 2-3 years.

Ref 353: All those guys that Pete is trading have a ton of current and short-term value by any metrics. Prince is a stud. Choo has a lifetime .386 obp and is at .441 this year. Scherzer has 250 K upside. He might think he is helping himself for the future but to me it seems the rest of us are getting screwed for the next 2-3 years.


Happy Thanksgiving G20! Hindsight is 20/20 and flags fly forever!
508Slizz
      ID: 227222719
      Sat, Nov 15, 2014, 11:33
Out from hibernation...

BH - you should also give GO and myself credit as the ones in support of Pete's side:

Stanton - second best dynasty player
Bryant by way of Hosmer - another stud.

He traded spare change for two whole dollars. Pete wins.
509beastiemiked
      ID: 27652721
      Sun, Nov 16, 2014, 14:17
I stand by my comment.
510PeteN.
      ID: 8550318
      Fri, Nov 21, 2014, 20:12
I'm happy with the trade. I'm also looking forward to Bryant raking in the majors next year.
511blue hen
      ID: 01052416
      Tue, Dec 09, 2014, 09:42
On the market... Dellin Betances

With David Robertson signing with the Chicago White Sox, the New York Yankees have an opening in the ninth inning. It is currently unclear who will be the closer, but if Dellin Betances sees significant time in the role in 2015, he becomes one of the best options available to fantasy owners.
512GO
      ID: 065299
      Tue, Dec 09, 2014, 10:22
They've been talking Andrew Miller too, but I always bet against teams picking a lefty closer. And usually I'm right.
513Slizz
      ID: 451101617
      Sat, Dec 27, 2014, 13:41
100 Days until Opening Night
514blue hen
      ID: 3307212
      Fri, Jan 02, 2015, 13:12
LaRoche, White Sox are perfect fit.

We all know Adam LaRoche was a big reason team Blue Hen won the title last year. Now, he goes from spacious Washington to US Cellular, perhaps the homerest ballpark in baseball. From the article:

If he stays healthy, he'll not only exceed 30 home runs, but I'll stick my neck out and say that he'll out-homer 2014 AL homer king Nelson Cruz and maybe even battle teammate Jose Abreu for the 2015 crown.

Looking to pair LaRoche with a pitcher for a top shelf hitter this offseason.
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