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0 Subject: RIBC 2014: Draft Recap

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Wed, Mar 19, 2014, 22:53

RIBC Managers: This thread is for your (optional) overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say.

1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Non-managers are also free to post comments or ask questions.
1Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 10:50
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

My typical strategy is to take hitters for at least the first four rounds. Take one or two closers in the first 8 picks, reacting to how the draft is unfolding, but trying to get quality closers who can help all cats (but not wins, of course). Wait until round 9 to take the first starter. After that, go after pitching and hitting interchangeably.

By picking at #14, I was concerned that a closer run might get started before I could react. Fortunately, I timed my picks of Uehara and Romo about right. But I was surprised at how so many teams were holding back on starting pitching. Compared with recent years, my top three starters (rounds 9-11) of Wacha, Latos, and Ryu are clearly stronger than expected.

On the hitting side, I couldn’t resist Matt Kemp at pick 5.14, and then I also took Aramis Ramirez at 8.03. That set me up to need more hitters on the bench than usual. Part of my pitching strategy (deferring on starters) has been to control the pitching cats through using at least two (and sometimes 3) bench slots for middle relief (i.e., draft 6-7 relievers). But that was at odds with stacking the bench with spare hitters. Fortunately, the quality of my starting pitching made me more comfortable with deferring on relief and using three bench slots for hitting support.

I didn’t take my third RP until the 23rd round. I know I’ve never waited nearly that long before.

If my starting pitching falters, I may be in some trouble. But in addition to covering for injuries, my extra bench hitters should allow me to generate some extra hitting stats in April when the schedule is more checkered. That’s a good thing.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

I guess my favorite picks were the three SPs mentioned above: Wacha, Latos, and Ryu. For that matter, I like Zack Wheeler in round 15 and Corey Kluber in round 17 as well. I’ll confess that Wacha, Wheeler, and Kluber all lack much of a track record, so while I like the projected value of those picks now, those picks also carry some material risk – since my draft strategy came to rely on strength in starting pitching.

I also like Alex Avila in round 20. While I often don’t carry backup catching, Santana’s position flexibility is more useful with another playable catcher. And if Cleveland goes through with the Santana 3B experiment for at least 10 games, that could be huge. I’m not counting on that, but it is in the back of my mind.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I particularly like Seattle Zen’s team. His rationales indicate that he went into the draft well researched, and seemed to get pretty good value on many occasions. His hitting and pitching seem strong and well balanced.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Aside from the deferral of quality SPs discussed above, my biggest surprise was that I don’t remember any time when I felt my targeted picks getting snatched away just before I could act. That's really unusual. There were a few times when the guy on the top of my queue disappeared late, but in those cases, I always had several similar choices to pick from. On multiple occasions, I set up a pick-queue with only one name, and when I did that, it always held. I’m not sure what to make of that.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

I’m content with what I did. No interest in a do-over.
2Seattle Zen
      Leader
      ID: 055343019
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 10:54
This was an excellent drafting experience, thank you, Guru, for creating RIBC and supporting it all these years.

I made it to The Show and I do not want to disappoint. My goal this year is to write the most copy, so I started researching and planning my draft strategy a few days after Christmas and I kept notes as I went.

I have a goal this year: Sixth place. Aiming high! I want to stay in the bigs and as much as I would like to win a pennant, I will be making decisions that are less risky, less "shoot for the moon." If I draft well, I can still win this. My draft plan is distilled into one two sylable word: Value. Every player I take I expect to return more value than the slot he was taken. This will require a lot of time spent on determining what value to place on the top 400 fantasy players.

I want a well balanced team. Trading in RIBC has nearly vanished. There were only two trades amongst the 16 teams in the PCL AAA last season and I had to give away a lot to be one of them, so you cannot count on trading away a strength in order to shore up a weakness.

In my short experience in RIBC, this is my fifth season, I have learned lessons one year that do a 180 in other years. I have drafted Joe Mauer and Carlos Santana early in years past and remarked at how many quality catchers were available on waivers when I went to pick up a non-catching batter. I thought to myself, "hmm, well there are only 16 catchers in play, half the starting catchers at any one time, of course there are going to be some decent choices on the wire." Then last year Miguel Montero decided to go through early onset menopause and I spent a good portion of the season scrounging the litter box and wondering where those gems from years past were hiding. So, maybe there will be a lot of trades this year.

When I got the ninth choice of draft position, I was afraid I was going to be picking ninth. I'm a believer that the logical choice is always the higest pick. the difference in value between the first sixteen players is dramatically more significant than the second sixteen and after that, barely any signficance. I drafted on the turn last year and I like it, but not nearly enough to take the 16th pick when the fifth is available. I really like the top four batters - Trout, Miggy, Goldschmidt and McCutchen. Odds are they will be the first four gone and I will have to choose from a lesser tier. But... maybe someone will take Kershaw 3rd or 4th, there is a decent argument that he will produce the 3rd or 4th best value, he did last year and he should win more games this year. If not, I'm left to decide between Carlos Gonzalez and Joey Votto. Votto has slipped quite a bit in ADP in regular leagues, but his OBP is sick and he is forecasted to have the 3rd best OPS after Trout and Miggy. I see him garnering 190+ r/rbi.

Some people would have taken the 7th or 8th slot and hoped that this crew would also underrate Votto and he would have slipped to me, but I was not willing to risk it. If Votto was gone, I don't want to choose between Chris Davis, Ellsbury, Adam Jones, Cano, all those guys have warts.

What does it mean to aim for sixth place? In my mind, it is trying to avoid the most famous "all or nothing" players and this season there sure seems to be alot of those. The most famous is Troy Tulowitzki. Others are Matt Kemp, Josh Hamilton... actually most Dodgers and all nonTrout Angeles. All of these players draft position takes into consideration their injury risk, therefore, if they perform the whole season injury free and produce at their talent level, they will be a good value. In my mind, however, the fantasy baseball market overvalues most of these players. They are the most likely to seriously underperform and their horrible seasons are the main reason teams finish in the bottom half. It also includes Billy Hamilton, other rookies, basically any guy it is really difficult to forecast. Will I avoid them all? No. But I am avoiding most. This is not to be confused with actually targeting players with minor injuries that drag down their ADP in the spring irrationally. There's value in these guys.

I think I did a good job following this plan, perhaps taking David Ortiz in the third round was not, strictly speaking, part of the plan. The other downside of taking Ortiz early was not being able to take Country Breakfast or VMart when they both were the top rated batters at different points of the draft.

My favorite picks were Hisashi at 156 and Simmons at 188. I'm also hoping that I can point to my picks in rounds 14-19 at the end of the season and say that they were very helpful.

I believe that Guru, jeffg and myself will end up on the podium. Reeb's fixation with the Red Sox may be a quality strategy on a one day free roll at Fan Duel, I doubt it works in RIBC.

Not many surprises, really. Sixteen different people all showed restraint in drafting Billy Hamilton unlike the AAA leagues. I don't remember ever witnessing a starting pitcher run quite like the one that started halfway through round 9. I guess I was surprised at how off kilter the double A leagues were this year. In years past I would look at them to see where players were being taken but I stopped this season after a few rounds, don't know what exactly was going on down there. Sure wish we could get 32 managers who are interested in making it to the top involved.

I don't know if I like drafting in the first half of March or not. There are many position battles that are not decided yet, guys are taking line drives off their face, changing values dramatically even before the first games. Would it really matter to the Aussies if those two games were Spring Training and not regular season? I doubt it. Baseball needs to start in April in Cincinnati.

Good luck everyone
3JeffG
      ID: 41228917
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 11:55
First I want to say that I really enjoyed everyone's rationales. Everybody has a different style, but they were all informative and entertaining, and based on the rationales (and some real good managers who I see listed in AAA this season) it shows what level of competition we are all in store for this year.


1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My running strategy is to set goals in all of the 10 categories for what I am trying to achieve with composite rankings and I keep running tabs of my team as I go (someday I may try to do everyone's team but no time). I base it on what it would take to get an 11 in each category using the prior seasons RIBC and two AAAs as a baseline. In addition, I tend to have a few 'dos and donts' I try to stick to every year:

- Try to avoid injury risks, time on the DL can cripple you in this format.
- Get myself two 'safe' closers by round 8 or 9 because I am not going to win any races to the player pool.
- Try to get at least two of your 3MI and 1C early, because in these shallow positions, after the top few teirs, there may not be a definitive 'got to have him' and everyone could be a risk.
- (New for this year) Unless handcuffing a closer, hold off on the MR for WHIP and K/9 until the last few rounds because strikeouts are up and always a handful just as good undrafted as late drafted. I've seen again and again where last years stud is this years bum. Better to take a bench hitter.


Did this execute as planned? Well, a few of my top picks have had trouble staying on the field in past years (Reyes, R Zimmerman, Werth, Morneau), but everyone is healthy and made it through the spring. I'm happy with my two closers, even though they are on the worst or second to worst teams in their respective leagues. I like that they have no real threat looming over their shoulder, but of course either can be traded in July to a contender and become an 8th inning guy.

My composite stats (according to fangraphs at least) did all finish in the ballpark of all my goals. On the weak side, I am about 30 short of my runs target, and maybe higher than I wanted on ERA. On the plus side my teams K rate is a healthy 8.5, and my OBP and SLG exceeded my goal by 15 points each. Of course this is based on my main picks being projected to play 150 games, and they I'd say at least two do not make that target.



2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?


This is the second time in my 10 year RIBC history that I had the number one overall (the last time was 2012 when I won my AAA) and what is not to love about Mike Trout (01.01). Ok that answer is too chalk. I am confident my Anthony Rendon pick in the (13.01) will exceed his ADP. Speaking of 2B, I am more than a little concerned about Dustin Ackley in round (17.01) who is now in more of a playing time battle than I thought he would be. Jeff Samardzija (10.16) is one I have a few reservations about, I like the Ks but was it too early to gamble with the ratios.

(FWIW, last year my 'favorite' pick was Ian Kennedy in RD8 who was a total drain before I let him go in June)



3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I'm jumping on the Seattle Zen bandwagon who concentrated on sluggers early, snuck in some runs/steals guy in the middle and got great value with mid to late round pitchers. I also like Meatwads drafting overall who did a great job with balance, and pulled the trigger on an unknown quantity in Tanaka at 6.15 who could be a Cy Young candidate (Yes, I am a Yankee season ticket holder). Others I like are Guru (his pitching stood out to me), bmd (even though no saves), holt, and mmikulka. They also seem to have teams positioned for the long run.


4. What surprised you most about the draft?

This year it was definitely the starting pitching patience. Because everyone held off it did leave higher quality starters still available up to round 10 when the runs began. I hope this works to my advanatage with a good base as I grabbed SP in rounds 2 and 6 so have two of the first 17 SP taken. Holt was the only other one to take two in the first six rounds. Maybe because I was at a turn and picked two players every 24 hours or so, but I was also surprised how slow our draft moved. Yes we still averaged less than an hour per pick, but that included tons of autopicks by others.



5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

I'm good. Thanks to Guru for still making this my favorite spot on the Internet and good luck to everyone.
4holt
      Donor
      ID: 308491916
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 21:31
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I think I have more of a method than a plan/strategy. I don't have any rules for when particular positions are drafted. I just try to go with the flow of the draft and take what's given to me, which often means zigging when others are zagging. Along with a lot of research, and trying to compete in all 10 categories, that's pretty much my method. I try not to intentionally draft any mediocre players. You can pick up a mediocre player as a FA any time you want. The goal is for every player on my squad to have some potential for greatness. If they don't work out, it's ok. They can be cut for another player.

Not much was planned, so yes I was able to execute as planned. I did lots of research and think I got a solid base along with a lot of good value & upside picks. I really didn't like drafting from the 7 spot though. It has its merits but I was forced into starting my draft with 2 OF's which obviously had a major effect on the rest of my draft.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Jose Abreu at 5.07. I'm convinced that he's going to be a monster. I'm counting on him.

I like the Strasburg/Sale combo. You won't win RIBC without dominant pitching and it's so much easier to have great SP's by just drafting the obvious ones. You could say the same thing about hitting, except that everyone is trying to draft the best hitters right from the start. Pitchers are ignored. If you want the best ones then you can have them without much contest. I find it a lot easier to fix hitting issues during the season than pitching, and the fewer slots I have to devote to pitchers, the more I can devote to platoon hitters or injured players.

I also like my trio of late rd OF's: Dickerson/Nava/Almonte. It's exciting to watch young players like Dickerson and Almonte develop, and Nava was just a great value as the 314th overall pick.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

This would be easier if the ESPN team names weren't so confusing. I just don't know, but I can do this. Now that the rosters are up, I've synced our ESPN league to the "DraftWizard by Fantasy Pros" software. The stat projections are Zeile, which is basically a consensus of all the popular projections out there. I'm not vouching for this software or projections in any way. I'm just sharing what I'm seeing. Bear in mind that the projections are old and don't account for recent injuries or position battles. Also, these projected standings don't account for anything that any of us will do (or not do) during the season. So, with a grain of salt:

Standings based on STARTERS ONLY:
1 Roto Guru
2 Seattle Zen
3 JeffG RIBC
4 HOLT 2014
5 Mighty Meatwads
6 High Self Esteem
7 Smith and 9th
8 The Zobristocrats
9 Milchian Magicians
10 BMDs Whiffers
11 30 for 30
12 Pablo's Peapods
13 Foot's Acrobats
14 Wazaaap Guy
15 Jasonprof's Team
16 ma reeb

Standings based on FULL ROSTER:
1 Milchian Magicians
2 Smith and 9th
3 Roto Guru
4 HOLT 2014
5 Seattle Zen
5 High Self Esteem
7 JeffG RIBC
8 30 for 30
9 Mighty Meatwads
9 The Zobristocrats
11 Pablo's Peapods
12 Wazaaap Guy
13 BMDs Whiffers
14 Foot's Acrobats
15 Jasonprof's Team
16 ma reeb

Several of those teams, I have no idea who they are.


4. What surprised you most about the draft?

I don't know. So many teams apparently adopting Guru's SP strategy was a story this year. The SP run in rds 10 & 11 and the quality of pitchers available there was ridiculous (and maybe even somewhat infuriating). Some of the positional players taken in the 1st 9 rounds also surprised me. We all want good MI & CI but if they aren't there then they just aren't there.

Maybe it's my imagination but the "post-steroid" era has thinned out the talent pool at every position, and considering the RIBC league settings, drafters find themselves faced with more serious positional issues to solve than in years past. I think it leads to more tunnel vision, where someone says "this round I am drafting a SS and that's all there is to it", which leads to more reaches and more drops than in years past. Like I said, maybe it's my imagination.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

I wouldn't mind being able to draft from a better draft slot. I wish my OBP outlook was a little better but I can work with it. I wish Adam Jones wasn't on my team but at 2.10 I still think he was correct pick.
5beastiemiked
      ID: 53512921
      Thu, Mar 20, 2014, 22:59
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

Learn to love projections. Some of the major projections such as Steamer are very good at predicting hitter stats. Why should I trust myself over them? I shouldn't. That's not to say I blindly drafted based on them but they were a major factor in my decision making. Also, wait on SPs and take 1 solid closer.

Didn't exactly follow my strategy. Selected Yu in the 2nd round due to all my other picks going off the board. Almost took Bautista but with Tulo I wasn't going to double down on the injury bug. For better or worse I stuck to my no "trap" RPs. By that I mean no RPs that i consider likely to lose their job this season. I think something like 50% of closers either get injured or lose their jobs so their were a bunch of guys I actively avoided.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Rizzo in round 5 is my favorite. I also like every middle reliever I picked(Soria in 14, Clippard in 15, and Santos in 17). I probably would do the McCann pick over and select a closer.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I looked over every team and none of them standout. True testament to the managers in this league.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

The lack of sleepers slipping. Not that people took them early but guys that I tagged as guys I was almost surely going to get always seemed to get nabbed a pick or 2 before I was going to draft them.

Obviously thought mediocre closers went off the board way earlier than they should've. No idea why some teams were loading up on 3 closers. This is probably just me being results oriented from last year when I drafted 1 closer and ended up 3rd in saves.


5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

I'd take Romo instead of McCann. Other than that not much. Possibly keep a better spreadsheet than the one I kept.
6mmikulka
      ID: 71372512
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 00:07
It’s my first time in the top league, and I figured I’d need to be able to make some in-draft adjustments because of the high level of competence. That said, I had a few basic principles from my 3 previous years of experience in the RIBC minor leagues that I knew I could count on:

Make sure to draft at least 2.5 closers: one or two extra mid-round picks separates you from the field and nets you 5+ additional points.
In principle, I did well with this, netting 3-1/2 including a top closer (which I’m not used to taking). Between the Aroldis Chapman incident and Janssen’s injury not healing very quickly, I’m much more uneasy than I was 2 days ago.

Make sure to get some steals early, because drafting them late usually decimates the rest of your team’s stats.
Steals (along with wins) was the main roadblock in my AAA title aspirations last year. I got plenty of SB potential with early picks of Gomez and Andrus, though Andrus is scaring me a little with his current injury.

With only 4 bench spots available, roster spots are precious: as the draft progresses, start to develop a plan for how to best utilize them.
After my first few picks, my plan was to have a backup C, MI, and CI/OF depending on who I drafted for my Utility spot: this way I would be able to have backup starters for as many offensive positions as possible, giving myself injury protection and getting as many starts as possible. I did pretty well with that, as my only position without a backup is 3B.

My 4th bench spot was going to go to a 6th SP, but once I realized that I wasn’t likely to get a ton of innings from my first 5 starters, I decided the best option was to use it to stream pitchers whenever there was a viable matchup. (A few people seem to have this as part of their plan, so I’ll have to be crafty about it and make sure not to start bad pitchers just for the innings.) Having this bench spot set aside to rotate between SP, RP, and backups also give me an emergency place to add a fill-in (like at 3B) if there’s a roster emergency.

Don’t be afraid to take an extreme approach if it leads to the most value
Early in last year’s draft, I saw pitching value and no batters who stood out, so I started out with SP/SP/SP, and it worked pretty well (the only issue being the lack of wins they got). This year I didn’t draft a SP until the 11th round. I didn’t have confidence in most of the upper-middle tier of SP, so it seemed like a good strategy to try to dominate offense and saves, and then aim for the middle in the rest of the pitching categories. I feel like I’m set up to do pretty well in ERA and WHIP (and K if I can get enough quality innings). Wins looks pretty rocky, but that’s also where the most luck is involved. Only time will tell how well this strategy pays off.

My favorite picks:
Swisher (10.11), Hamels (11.06 [though this could turn into my least favorite with a setback]), Alex Wood (16.11), Andre Ethier (17.06), and Yasmani Grandal (24.11). I expect 4 of those 5 to provide significant returns over their draft position.

Picks I would like to do over:
Chapman (5.06), obviously, though you can’t plan for freak injuries. That Chapman injury makes me more uncomfortable with 2 of my other picks: Kendrys Morales (19.06) and Josh Rutledge (21.06). Taking a pair of high-upside picks at the end of a draft is one thing, but when it means potentially having 3 deadweights on your roster for 2 months, it’s much more worrisome. Having Morales sign or Rutledge win the starting role would really help right now.

I don’t know that I’d necessarily do it over, but taking Carlos Gomez over Stephen Strasburg in the 3rd irrevocably changed my draft. I would have an entirely different team right now: because I’d need steals, I wouldn’t have been able to draft so many mid-round power hitters, and I’d have been more inclined to draft additional SP during those rounds, too.

I like Guru’s team – he followed a similar strategy to me, but managed a solid pitching staff by starting 2 rounds earlier. I definitely view Holt’s team as the best, though: he has competent starters at every offensive position, and his weaker positions have backup options. Those bench players cover every position except catcher (which will always have readily available options), and he has a great platoon reserve OF in Nava. He has 3 closers, 2 legitimate aces, and Cueto, who could easily be an ace. If his injury-prone players stay healthy and his 1B and MI pan out, that will be a nearly impossible team to beat.

What surprised me the most about this draft was how people were able to ignore where players had been going to take the best value available. I’m used to being able to let seemingly undervalued players drop to the round or two before their composite ADP, and that wasn’t happening (with the exception of Swisher) in this draft at all. People like Carlos Quentin and Marco Estrada and Corey Dickerson (and even Jonathan Schoop!) were being snapped up as soon as they presented a likely value over their draft slot, and I had to adapt to that.

In hindsight, I would have probably enjoyed how the late draft positions (13th-16th) played out. I would have started out SP/SP like I did last year: my team would be radically different, but I think I would have been happy with the outcome of a pitching-heavy team if I began with a pair of aces.

I’m happy with my team, though, and if I avoid any more major injuries, I think it has a great shot at contending.
7Evan
      ID: 29181714
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 10:50
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

This has been my 4th year in RIBC now and I’ve finished in the top 6 each season. Last year, I finished third in the big leagues which I am very proud of. Thus, I stuck to the same strategy that I do every year. I draft hitters in the first 4 rounds (like Guru), grab one ace, and then go best player available along with positional need the rest of the way; focusing on high OBP players the whole way and pitchers with traditionally low WHIPs and high k/rates. Through the first 10 rounds I will draft “safe” players, essentially guys without much injury risk. I stuck to the strategy pretty well and feel iffy about my team.

I selected 8th which I had no choice over. Many of you have doubts about Cano in Safeco but I really think he will be fine. Freeman, Kinsler, Adrian Gonzalez came next. Grabbed Greinke as my “ace” which I was happy about and had to nab Molina as he fell much further than I would have expected. The crazy closer run happened and I got slaughtered. I go into the season with Brothers, Qualls, Kelley, and Cook. I am really praying that Brothers gets the job or my save stats are in trouble.

I also like to grab a player with multiple position eligibility and I’m not happy with the one I selected, Mark Reynolds.

Overall I like my hitters a lot and am happy with my starters. My outfielders are the weakest in the league (Leonys Martin is my “best” one) so hopefully I’ll be able to pick up someone surprising this season. My closer situation is dire as I outlined earlier. Those two results could be the death of me.

According to my calculations (barring injury), I have enough projected runs, home runs, and RBI with my hitters to finish top 6. I’m 27 steals off where I need to be. As far as pitching I’m 5 wins and 39 saves off from where I need to be to be in the top 6. We all know that wins are difficult to predict so that can break either way. In strikeouts I have enough to compete at the top. With that overall analysis, I won’t make top 6.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

My favorite picks are Freeman at pick 25 and Molina at 89 and I don’t think I got tremendous value out of any of my picks. Molina is my favorite and least favorite pick if that is possible. Love the value but it altered my picking for the rest of the draft.

The problem with grabbing Molina in the 6th was that I was desperate in steals and outfielders which forced me to grab Leonys in the 8th and Aoki in the 9th (when I could have grabbed a closer). I then waited and waited on closers since they were all combed through until I selected Brothers in the 13th.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I love what Guru did with his team; he is covered at all bases. Incredible values. Ditto with Seattle Zen.

I think Meatwads is a little underrated with his lineup. I love his pitching staff although not crazy about relying on Soriano as the closer. I think Clippard will finally take hold (a guy I targeted).

Mmikulka is sitting pretty well too if his SP can perform. Like his lineup potential a lot but he needs to avoid the injury bug.

Jkaye has a nice team construction and so does beastiemiked.

If I had to pick a top (3) it would be Rotoguru, Seattle Zen, and beastiemiked.

All the teams are good, this is why it’s the big leagues.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

That in the first four picks, I drafted (2) 2B and (2) 1B. That is very odd for me. It was nice not to worry about those positions later on and I don’t really regret it.

I was also surprised as to the closer run where so many mediocre relievers were taken. I thought I would have been able to nab one later but I just couldn’t pull the trigger earlier. I’m very active on the free agent/waiver wire so I am confident that I will be able to pick up a closer at some point in the season as I do every other year.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Nope. I stuck to my strategy; need to be confident in your decisions in this league. Let’s hope some things break my way.
8Seattle Zen
      Leader
      ID: 055343019
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 17:59
I'm now having some buyers remorse with Big Papi. Taking him as the 38th overall player is pretty damn risky now that I think about it. He basically has to have no mistakes in order for him to be of value. Today I think I should have gone with either Strasburg or Matt Holliday.

For years I have been a fan of what I consider the greatest fantasy baseball league in the world - Tout Wars. It has been a dream of mine to participate, in fact, it is the number one thing I think about after buying a Powerball ticket. It is true that their AL and NL-only leagues are the two crown jewels, but they have added a mixed league auction and draft and they are pretty prestigious, too.

I was reading about the mixed league draft and saw that Ortiz wasn't picked until #106! Yikes. And Tout leagues use OBP and not average, too.

Which brings me to this amazing nugget, I blanked. I totally forgot that this league had replaced BA with OBP.

Oh, my, you have got to be kidding me. You are a "professional" tout, that's why you were invited. You are supposed to be amongst the best of the best and you can't even remember something so simple as the frickin' categories! The change occurred three years ago. Cut this clown and get RotoGuru, OT if there ever was OT, or any one of us, we'd put in more effort if we were being watched on the big stage.

The other depressing item was learning that Ryan Ludwick wasn't even drafted and they start five outfielders!
9holt
      Donor
      ID: 308491916
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 19:04
Well, factor in that it's a 12 team league, looks like 2 catchers, 5 OF. Not sure what their IP limits are. Looks like SP are drafted more heavily. Hard to compare without knowing all the details. Odd that they use OBP but not SLG.
10kdl212
      ID: 231211918
      Fri, Mar 21, 2014, 19:40
Rotoguru - I just noticed I have Erasmo Ramirez of Miami on my team, instead of Erasmo Ramirez of Seattle. Can this be fixed?

Thanks.
11kdl212
      ID: 472541518
      Sun, Mar 23, 2014, 20:00
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

Last year I took 2 starting pitchers in the first 4 rounds, and it paid HUGE dividends. So I decided I wouldn't do that again, b/c I couldn't be that lucky, but I did like the idea of an anchor starter. I figured I could do that in round 4. The first 3 round plan was best hitter available. And I wanted 2 closers in the first 10 rounds.

Other than that, it was business as usual - prefer solid contributors in the middle rounds over reaches and gambles, but take a couple of gambles, and win the draft with 2 or 3 picks somewhere in rounds 16-23.

Other than the Alex Rios incident in round 3, I'm happy with the draft. I got a staff anchor in Verlander, 2 closers, and decent hitting in the mid and late rounds. What I lack, however, is a big bopper with a huge OBP. Neither Hanley nor Stanton offer that, and it was my realization of this in the middle of the draft that made me sad. I don't think I have a single shot of winning the league because of it.


2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Favorite picks: Melky Cabrera (20), Ike Davis (21), Erasmo ramirez (22), Peter Bourjos (23). I thought that was an awesome runs of late picks that all have a very good shot of outperforming my round 11-18 picks.

Do Overs: Alex Rios (3). Would take Adrian Gonzalez instead. Chris Carter (11). There were serviceable 1B available later, and I could've snagged a SP here instead.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Teams I liked during and after the draft already look worse (because guys get hurt), which is why I find this question the least valuable of these post-draft questions. We all draft well.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Tier II closers went earlier than I thought they'd go. And the optimistic Mariner drafting.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Yes.
13twilson
      ID: 36222109
      Fri, Apr 04, 2014, 18:15
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

Given my success last year, I intended to follow a similar plan in 2014. Put simply, minimize risk in the early going and target upside in the late rounds, all the while following the value wherever it may take me. Because I typically have more success finding SP diamonds in the rough than any other position, I prefer to limit the draft resources I invest there. Finally, I hoped to grab one of the elite closers.

I was only partially able to abide by these conditions. I think I did an exemplary job at minimizing early round risk. The vast majority of my core roster has a strong track record of health. Hopefully, this will translate into a plate appearance advantage, which is always a major challenge given our 4-person bench. I also managed to grab a top-tier closer in Trevor Rosenthal without reaching at all.

On the negative side, I do not consider most of those early and middle round picks to be values. As maximizing value is the true core of my drafting philosophy, I am far from enthused with how things turned out. You know you are in trouble when the draft midpoint arrives and there are multiple other teams you would rather own.

I also ended up investing a little more heavily in starting pitching than I would’ve liked. I’m okay with my opening pick of Kershaw at 1.15, but it would have behooved me to pass on Cain as my SP2 in the 7th, particularly considering how the SP run didn’t materialize until far later than I was expecting.


2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Favorite picks? Rosenthal, Brad Miller, Ruggiano, and my late round SP fliers. I think that at least one, and very possibly more, of those four will contribute positively to my team this year.

Ruggiano has always put up numbers in the counting stats throughout his career, and this year he finally has a full-time job. Brad Miller could be a top-5 shortstop. He probably won’t be, but that such a concept is not farfetched is quite a find at 10.02.

Rosenthal has elite skill, excellent health, closes for a top team, and I got him right before the closer run. I can’t ask for any better than that (though if Kenley Jansen had dropped just a little bit farther…).


My worst pick by far was choosing draft slot #15. Why would I ever think that drafting after Guru instead of in front of him was a good idea? The answer is that I didn’t think, at least not in those terms, and it cost me dearly.

With that mistake made, I compounded it when I took Donaldson at 4.02. All of the analysis I did at the time told me to go in a different direction, and my gut agreed. Yet I took a guy I don’t particularly believe in because of a fear that I would never be able to find a third baseman I liked later on.

As it turned out, it just meant that instead I would never find a first basemen I liked. I would be much happier rolling with Jose Abreu/Aramis Ramirez/Venable or Abreu/Headley/Venable instead of Donaldson/Cuddyer/Lind or Donaldson/Crisp/Lind. Even better than that would be following Abreu with Cuddyer/Aramis in the 7th/8th, skipping Cain. Then I would’ve been able to take advantage of the great SP values available at the 9/10 turn.

I also didn’t like my Garza pick at 16.02. No reason to take a SP4 that early given my managerial strengths.


3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

With how much I’ve talked about his team elsewhere in this writeup, I am quite enamored with Guru’s team. Other than Kemp in the 5th, I like all of his first 11 picks.

Mikulka had a strong mid/late draft to supplement a respectable core. He and I agreed much more than usual in our valuations this year, which is surprising to me. Holt and JKaye also have promising rosters.


4. What surprised you most about the draft?

The way that pitching played out. I found the elite closers quite appealing, but they lingered on the draft board. Kimbrel in particular was a very nice snag at his draft slot. Once the reliever picks began, though, they didn’t stop until well past the point of diminishing returns. The last few got taken 50 picks earlier than they went in the other RIBC drafts. I’m glad that I was able to grab my elite guy before everything got crazy.

I was also very surprised by the way pretty much the whole league minimized starting pitching. In recent years, the standard approach has been SP avoidance in the first few rounds that gradually transitions into a steady stream come the 6th or 7th round, with no true runs on the position.

In this draft, the starters slated for rounds 7-9 got shunted aside by the tsunami of relievers. Even those owners not participating in the run preferred hitters. I understand the willingness to wait on starting pitching, as I have occasionally embraced such a strategy in years past, but I would’ve expected a few people to zag once it was clear that everybody was zigging.


5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Draft 13th instead of 15th. That simple change would’ve snowballed into an entirely different draft for me, one that would’ve seemingly gone very well.

All in all, I found this draft frustrating. I’m quite satisfied with the sources I use and my general process; I’ve been fine-tuning it for five years now, and it provides me both a depth of material and a measure of comfort and control.

With that said, I found myself overemphasizing certain elements that worked particularly well last year to the detriment of my overall approach. As my precise circumstances began to deviate from those of 2013, that overweighting began to backfire. By the time I fully realized this, the damage was done. Going forward, I just need to be prepared when past patterns do not materialize as I am expecting.
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