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Subject: RIBC 2015: Draft Recap
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Mon, Mar 30, 2015, 21:08
RIBC Managers: This thread is for your (optional) overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say.
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Non-managers are also free to post comments or ask questions. |
| 1 | JeffG
ID: 41228917
Tue, Mar 31, 2015, 20:48
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First I want to say that I apologize for my briefer than usual rationales this season, I've elaborated more in prior years, who I was considering, what I wanted to happen in the next round, but this was a very different draft for me. Backstory: My doctors discovered I had a bloodstream bacteria that grew and "vegetated" on my heart, destroyed two valves and infected other parts of my heart. (I am only 53 years old). I was rushed to the critical care unit of my local hospital on 3/12 and had to wait first for antibiotics to remove the bacteria so I can safely have heart surgery to have the valves replaced and other parts of my heart cleaned. I'm so happy to report that the open heart surgery I had on 3/20 was a success, and am actually leaving the hospital for home tomorrow 4/1. I'll still have to get 8 separate IV treatments each day all of April (and alas, gave away every one of my April Yankee season tickets). Since I was in the hospital from 3/12 and began the draft in a hospital gown, I can safely say that I was likely the first RIBC manager to draft the first 12 rounds without wearing pants. Ok, enough about my boring health issues, the important stuff....on to fantasy baseball.
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My running strategy is to set goals in all of the 10 categories for what I am trying to achieve with composite rankings and I keep running tabs of my team as I go (someday I may try to do everyone's team but no time). I base it on what it would take to get an 11 in each category using the prior seasons RIBC and two AAAs as a baseline. (I was very off in R, SV, and SB this year from the targets)
In addition, I tend to have a few 'dos and donts' I try to stick to every year:
- Try to avoid injury risks, time on the DL can cripple you in this format. (success so far, need Tanaka to stay healthy)
- Get myself two 'safe' closers by round 8 or 9 because I am not going to win any races to the player pool. (oops, should have grabbed RP2 in round 10, instead of C Molina)
- Try to get at least two of your 3MI and 1C early, because in these shallow positions, after the top few tiers, there may not be a definitive 'got to have him' and everyone could be a risk. (I do not know why I keep this in, never follow this. Seems the non tier 1-3 MI were all so interchangable bad this season, I did not care)
- Unless handcuffing a closer, hold off on the MR for WHIP and K/9 until the last few rounds because strikeouts are up and always a handful just as good undrafted as late drafted. I've seen again and again where last years stud is this years bum. Better to take a bench hitter. (success)
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
As I said above, round 10 taking a middle of the road catcher like Molina could have been better utilized. Love my top 5 picks and what they could contribute (Bautista, Freeman, Bumgarner, Ortiz, Melanson). Hoping rd 6 Tanaka can avoid injury. Not overall impressed with my mid round picks.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I like bmd, ksoze, holt. I think I'm destined for 8th to 10th.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I think closers went earlier than they had in recent years for RIBC. We had shown restraint for a while. Possibly because so many teams have closers starting on the DL, or battles brewing, there were not as many MLB teams with declared closers this year.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Yes. But I'm going to stick with my guys and hopefully give everyone the competition this league has come to expect. I know I'm playing against some great fantasy managers.
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| 2 | holt
ID: 222581821
Tue, Mar 31, 2015, 22:30
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
No punting of categories, balanced pitching and hitting, a mix of youth and vets, avoid category killer type players, wait on OF (where I usually end up being over-loaded during the season).
I'm a little low on RBI and SLG at the moment but it's a work in progress. Barring injuries or implosions I think I'm good in the other categories. Think I got a good mix of proven players and upside picks. I don't any grizzled old-timers, unless you want to throw Morneau and Peavy in that category. Didn't take my 2nd OF til A Gordon in rd 10, so that's good (I'm always tempted to draft OF's!).
I had the 8th choice for draft pick. 8 through 16 were available. I wanted Altuve and/or Cano and figured I could get one with pick 16. I did get Altuve. Might have gotten them both had Ksoze gone another direction with pick 15.
I like to draft two stud SP's and I like closer runs to start late. The closers started dropping early and I was forced to use picks 5-6 on Rosenthal and Cishek. It's very difficult to pick up saves during the season. I don't want to feel like a wino scavenging trash cans for bottles all season. Had to wait til rd 9 to grab Wacha (I did get King Felix with my 2nd rd pick though).
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Carlos Gonzalez at 3.16, I love that pick but I also hate it. I took him in the first rd last season and got burned hard (luckily I had Dickerson and Blackmon). I like Wacha at 9.16 (was hoping he'd be my #3 rather than #2 though). I don't think I drafted any "Jose Abreu's" again this season so I'm hoping one of my picks like P Souza turns out to be something or Segura bounces back.
Do-over? Getting Turner and Plouffe (two thirdbasemen) on the 19/20 turn was lame. I wanted another SP there. I'd take a mulligan on that one.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Rather than trying to decipher everyone's roster, I'll just say that my tracking software which uses composite projections has Youngroman #1, RJ #3, and Kevin at #4. I can post it later if anyone cares to see it. There's a lot more to winning RIBC than drafting of course. I wouldn't put too much stock in projections at this point.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Early closer run maybe? Nothing was all that surprising really. Still getting used to post-steroid era stats though. Intentionally drafting guys projected to go .315/390 just seems wrong.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
There were a few players I wanted that got away but what are you going to do? We all get one pick per round.
Thanks for running the best leagues around Guru! I appreciate all your work.
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| 3 | Evan
ID: 101522414
Wed, Apr 01, 2015, 11:09
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1) My plan was the same as other seasons with a slight alteration that I will explain. In the early 3 rounds, I try to grab reliable, high OBP power bats or the elite middle infielders. I usually select my first starting pitcher in round 4 or 5 and have my one “ace” and will waiting on starting pitching later on. I would be implementing the strategy of selecting the best player available until round 10-11 or so and then fill in holes.
This time around, I wanted to grab a closer early on. Last season, there was an absolute crazy closer run in the 4th or 5th round and I missed out, going into the season with nobody. I was not going to allow that to happen again. Instead of drafting the “ace”, I went with a closer in round 4. For some reason, when it came around to me again in the 5th, I grabbed another closer and finished off the position. That was not my original plan but I was hoping to start another closer run seeing what happened in 2014. It did not have the results that I expected as only 7 closers were taken until my next selection. I could have waited and grabbed a SP to anchor my staff such as Hamels, Zimmerman, Tanaka (injury risk and all), or Shields. I didn’t select my first SP until round 7 with Iwakuma, who isn’t bad choice but isn’t the “staff ace” I wanted. On top of drafting closers in round 4-5, I wasn’t even sure if my round 4 closer, Betances would have the job!! That forced me to reach for Andrew Miller in round 11 which could have gone to another spot.
I also took wayyyy too many Yankees who are not going to be a good team this year. I have (7); Betances, Miller, Beltran, Teixeira, Gregorius, Eovaldi, and Sabathia. The only ones I like are Betances/Miller and maybe Eovaldi.
I think my team is full of boring players but should have a good mix of speed and power in the hitting department and low WHIP in the pitching area. I am lacking more in SP strikeouts than I wanted to be but at least all of my relievers have very high K rates to counterbalance that. Not my favorite draft in RIBC but my only real regret is going after (2) closers so early.
2) Most of the players on my team are really boring; Goldschmidt, Brantley, Prado, Iwakuma, Ryu, Valbuena… no one to really move the needle. There are a few players I am excited for though:
• Starling Marte (3.05) – Not necessarily a value pick but this kid has talent. I’m really excited to see whether he shows more power and keeps the speed on the basepaths. If its less power and more speed or more power and less speed, it will be okay.
• Manny Machado (6.12) – He is 22 years old and has played a lot of MLB games. I think he is an absolute stud on the field and I am banking that he will stay healthy.
• Jarrod Dyson (18.12) – He is a 4th outfielder for the Royals but there is no way that he is riding the bench. In my rationales, I tried to understand the difference between Ben Revere and Dyson who is picked 200 picks later. Dyson had 36 SBs in 290 plate appearances last season. Even if he does that again, I’ll be happy with this 18th round pick.
What would I do over? I wouldn’t have attempted to start a closer run in the 4th/5th round. I also would have taken a closer who HAS THE JOB in the 4th. It handcuffed me to take his competitor/backup in the 11th when I could have selected someone else.
I also selected Ryu without knowing his injury concerns. Could have grabbed Hughes, Cashner, or Archer. Otherwise, no real regrets.
3) It is always tough to grade and compare rosters because everyone has holes. In this case, I try to pick the best offenses and teams with established closers and one ace. With that being said, I like the following squads:
RG JR: I like all of his offensive choices and, if he gets another closer if Uehara is out long, he will be there in the end. Besides Strasburg, I like Hughes, Salazar, Porcello, Greene, and Alvarez as other SP selections.
The Shield: He is pretty set at the closer position and I like his offense. Could use another big RBI guy other than Pujols. I really like Castro, Calhoun, Ozuna, and Seager.
Foot’s Acrobats: I always admire his drafts. His team brings a lot of balance and the offense will certainly have a high OBP. He has (2) closers and even though his pitchers aren’t big names, they should get the job done.
4) I can’t think of anything that surprised me in this draft. It is extremely competitive and, even if I don’t agree with another team’s selection, I can justify it based on their explanation. I don’t think the closer run was as crazy as last year’s so maybe that was just an anomaly.
5) The only thing I would do differently would have been my closer selections that I alluded to earlier. I could have at least plugged in a potential ace/solid position player.
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| 4 | youngroman
ID: 57047243
Wed, Apr 01, 2015, 13:58
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
it is basically the same every season:
- pick a C as late as possible (major fail because I took Posey at 2.14)
- get 2 closers as late as possible (success, Benoit + Perkins at 8.14 and 9.03 + Mujica at 22.14)
- try to fill thin positions (2B,3B,SS) early (success, I had those positions covered by round 7)
- get enough pitchers before filling in backups at MI/CI (nearly success, 4 starters + 2 closers until round 14)
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
favorite pick would definitely be Mujica at 22.14. at the time I picked him it was pretty clear that Uehara would be out at the start of the season. his replacement was not 100% sure but I took the small gamble and won.
I feel confident with all of my pitchers that I took late (Weaver, Cain, Hendricks)
no do overs yet.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
haven't looked at other teams. I only have time to project my own team, although it would not cost much to do it for all others too. In the end it all depends on which projections you use and how current they are.
my team (as drafted) is projected to achieve:
7294 AB (target = 4th place of 2014 RIBC: 7083)
930 R (927)
878 RBI (883)
164 SB (151)
0.329 OBP (0.334)
0.414 SLG (0.414)
1353 IP (1350 - 1380)
89 W (84)
73 SV (96)
1234 K (1250)
3.313 ERA (3.238)
1.172 WHIP (1.163)
I nailed it in most categories.
simply looking at player names I'd say: ksoze, Tosh and Guru.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
no surprises. after playing this format so many years you know when certain type of players go, especially closers. for me the biggest surprise was that Kershaw went #2 overall. I expected that someone reaches for him, but not at #2.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
just to make it completely different: I would take a draft position in the 2nd half and see which kind of team would have been possible when drafting from there. RIBC managers always value some players differently than all the experts that do their projections, probably because the player is or was on a team they root for. living in Austria gives you the distance. we have basically zero baseball coverage in the media so I have to rely completely on the Internet. there I only read the global players (espn, fox sports & co.) regularly and not regional newspapers that tend to report too optimistic about their team.
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| 5 | kdl212
ID: 3927222
Thu, Apr 02, 2015, 14:36
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Best available for the first 6 rounds, making sure to get at least one starting pitcher and maybe a reliever. Fill in the roster in the middle rounds, but lay off starting pitching and outfield. Mix 2 parts upside with 1 part safety in the later rounds. Roll the dice at the end.
Did I execute? Largely yes, except for the Josh Reddick pick. I think Tulo-Votto make for a potentially league-crushing first two picks, though it's not likely they actually come through. But I was drafting to win big, so I love those 2 picks whatever the outcome. Best available made me reluctantly pick Billy Hamilton at #86. I tend to pick guys with a .290 OBP and lots of speed in round 20+, not the top 100. Plus, he stunk in the second half last year, and hasn't hit at all in spring, so I'm not optimistic. But his steals potential is crazy, and I was going all-in to win, so I pulled the trigger. Kluber wasn't the first starter I wanted, but I wasn't drafting high enough in round 3 to get Scherzer or Sale. I filled in the roster well all the way to round 18, and then I made missteps, getting another injured outfielder and wasting a pick on a catcher.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
For my team - 8-18 are all picks I see outperforming their draft slot. Kendrick in the 8th round may be the best. He's batting 4th or 5th, has been consistent, is in a better hitting environment this year, and should end the year as the 4th or 5th best 2B.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
RotoGuru's team.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
That everyone reluctantly chooses relievers sooner than they'd prefer. It's a collective action problem. Still, I figured that managers in this league would go their own way, but it just doesn't happen. I don't think this year was any different than others.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I would redact Josh Reddick from my cheat sheet so he never was even considered. That single pick messed up the entire rest of my draft. And I wouldn't pick a second catcher during the draft. Instead of those 2 picks, I would've rolled the dice on middle infielder and an additional starting pitcher. But other than those 2 picks, I enjoyed this draft. I drafted way too many injury problems, but in the past I've overvalued spring injury reports. Anyone can get hurt, and any player will miss a couple weeks here and there. Instead of paying full price for players who will get hurt later, I got already damaged goods at a discount. If half of them come through, I think I'll come out ahead.
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| 6 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Thu, Apr 02, 2015, 20:59
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I always try and plan to pay attention to the %'s and rarely succeed. I think this year however, I'm strong in ERA and WHIP, OK in SLG %, but most likely dead last in OBP. I guess I never pay attention as well as I should.
I also swore off closers until later in the draft several years ago, and totally deviated from that by taking Holland @ 4.07
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I'm expecting big things from Springer @ 3.07, I like Bogaerts @ 9.10 and two late SP's at 22.07 & 24.07 ( Carlos Martinez and Josh Collmentor ).
Totally regret Storen ( 8.10 ). I was traveling, picked from my phone and could have taken a comparable closer rounds later. I just didn't have the time or resources to analyze and make a better decision
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Uptown Bombers
Holt
KDL212
Tosh
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Seemed like closers went earlier than usual
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Nothing really, I liked getting the 10th pick and Carlos Gomez. Other than the Storen pick, I can't think of to many picks I regret at the time
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| 7 | mailedfoot
ID: 531322718
Thu, Apr 02, 2015, 22:25
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Thank you for the compliment, Evan. JeffG, I'm glad to hear things are looking up for you, best wishes for a speedy recovery. I would also like to offer an apology to Guru and the rest of the league, as I commented on an undrafted player in one of my rationales. I'm afraid I tend to regard the rationales as an afterthought and obviously wasn't paying close enough attention when I wrote that one. Hopefully, no one was swayed by my opinion.
My usual plan for this format is to get impact hitters in the first 2-3 rounds, then a starter, and after that to look for value while filling out the roster. Since closers are a scarce commodity and there can be a long time between picks, I try to monitor them without picking one early, making sure I have at least one to start the season. I usually try to make a reach or two on upside players along the way.
Overall, I feel satisfied with my draft and think I executed my plan fairly well. With 16 teams and only 4 bench spots (including DL players), I’m constantly weighing options and reevaluating my roster anyway. But I feel like my team is a good starting point for the long season ahead.
Some of my favorite picks are Mookie Betts (one of my reaches, he looks to have a bright future, hope it starts in a big way this season), Neil Walker (looks poised for a big season to me), Brett Cecil (will be huge if he runs with the closer role all year), and Mike Zunino (curious to see if he can keep hitting once the games count). If I could have a do over as I sit here tonight, it would probably be my Sandoval and Street picks. I was all set to pick Cody Allen and had to scramble to come up with a backup plan. Street is having horrible spring; hope he doesn’t turn out to be a wasted pick.
As far as other teams go, the league looks balanced to me, but as I go over the rosters I keep coming back to Uptown Bombers.
I guess maybe the biggest surprise for me was Chapman in the third round as I wasn’t really expecting a closer to go that soon and it kind of created a domino effect. Now that I think about it, this pick probably caused me to end up with Huston Street instead of Cody Allen!
That’s about all I got, except to say good luck to everyone. I'm sure whoever wins will have to earn it.
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| 8 | beastiemiked
ID: 5911312710
Thu, Apr 02, 2015, 23:23
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Hitters early and wait on SP. Get one big closer and some good middle relievers. I reluctantly drafted Yu last year and it bit me bad. SP's are just more unreliable than the best hitters. I did a pretty good job. I really wanted Chapman, Holland, or Kimbrel. Once Chapman and Holland were drafted I had a super easy pick in the 4th round.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
My favorite pick was Yusmeiro Petit in the 22nd round. My least favorites were Alexei Ramirez and Brett Lawrie.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Very balanced all around. I'd be throwing a dart if I picked some I liked.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Guys slipping that were ranked high in ADP's. This is a compliment to everyone as there were a bunch of bad players that were being overdrafted and it seems like that was not the case in this league.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I'd wait on a SS. Looking at the guys drafted after Alexei Ramirez makes me cringe at how bad that pick was. Ugh!
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| 9 | Uptown Bombers
ID: 81262014
Sun, Apr 05, 2015, 22:00
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1) My strategies and ability to execute were as follows: First, fill MI early. We all know how shallow these positions are and how difficult it is to fill all three spots with quality players during the season. I have usually targeted a MI as my first round pick in these drafts so this year was a bit different. I filled my "starting" 3 MI's with pick in the 2nd, 6th, and 11th round. That was well above the average when compared to the rest of the league, but all 3 of my MI have question marks, so this is far from a guaranteed advantage. I do believe that if all 3 play up to level of their draft position that I will have a strong core.
Next, do not overpay for closers. The position is too volatile and I think the league overvalues the position. If this means I end up with no closers, don't panic. For better or worse, I stuck to this strategy. I realize the difficulty in punting a category and winning the league, but I intend to scramble for saves to salvage a few points and believe that the value of taking players other than closers during rounds 5-10 gives you a better chance of winning as many as the other categories as possible. (Naturally, you'll need to do that since you've passed on the closer runs.) As noted in one of my rationales, I made a mistake by passing on Hawkins, which would have at least given me one closer to start the season.
Third, draft starting pitching early. Many people like to wait on starters, so I zig while most zag. This is because I need to do as well as possible in the pitching ratios and K's with better than average starters to compensate for saves. Also, pitching stats have been trending better and better in real life and fantasy, so I want to be ahead of the trend. In the past few years, I've taken a more "reliable" ace but I still love the Harvey pick. I'll just be sweating it out a bit more than usual. I'm happy with my first 4 starters. The last two are more toss ups, but the investment in them was minimal.
Last, draft OF early. This is a new strategy for me this year and is the result of being disappointed with last year's OF production. I used to approach the draft as many have already pointed out: assume OF was deep and wait to fill the 4 spots. OF is deep, that much is true. There are quality players to be had late in the draft and ones that will emerge during the season. But the decline of the offensive stats to me in the last few years had me focused on trying to get as much as I could from my OF. Last year I filled my OF with picks 6, 8, 10, and 18. Those picks didn't work out, but I'm not naming the players, because after looking over my league results, I noticed that not many of the Of's selected after round 6 made the kind of impact I would have been happy with. In other words, that wasn't simply about my making the wrong pick, but rather that most of the OF's I might have taken would have similarly disappointed me. So in an attempt to correct that, I concentrated on two OF's in the early part of the draft (at the expense of CI it would turn out, but I think CI is the better position to sacrifice) round 1 and round 5, two OF's before my first from last year. My 3rd OF, selected in round 10, is Leonys Martin, drafted mostly as a source of steals. The OF's after that are less dependable, but I do feel that my OP unit as a whole is a strength.
That leaves me after the draft with the perception of a stronger than average MI & OF, a competitive SP unit and CI, an average C, and last in saves. That's the sort of approach that has worked for me in the past, so I'd have to say I am pleased with my draft results.
2. Favorite picks: According to the draft summary, I got good value on several picks: Samardzija, Pedroia, Trumbo, Rollins, Rios, Pagan.
The commonality for most of those picks is a poor 2014 campaign. The question becomes whether they can bounce back or if 2014 was the start of the end. Of those players, I believe Trumbo and Pedroia are most likely to bounce back and offer good value.
Do overs: Already mentioned Latroy Hawkins. Would also rethink the Carlos Rodon pick, since he is slated for the minors. And since I am writing this a few hours removed from the Kimbrel trade to San Diego, Quackenbush as a potential closer in waiting in round 17 looks done for. At the very least, I am patting myself on the back for recognizing a situation where the closer was in question. That the Padres traded for Kimbrel says something about their faith in Benoit, and I was able to sniff that out. It gets me nothing as yet though.
3. In no particular order, I like Rotoguru Jr, Holt, and kdl212. My only basis is the eye test, and teams I thought had similar strengths to my teams.
4. In previous years, I have struggled to find players for the final rounds. This year, I had many players that I found myself struggling to pick between them. This seems silly since we all know that the season will force us to make many changes and the final rounds are likely to be gone from out rosters sooner than later. Still, it felt so odd to me I thought I would mention it.
5.Nope, same strategy, same approach, with the exception of a particular player here or there.
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| 10 | Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Mon, Apr 06, 2015, 16:24
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
The generic strategy pre-draft was -
1. Best available hitter in rounds 1-3. SP in round 4. Closer in round 8-9. Fill MI sooner than later. Pay more attention to category awareness than positional scarcity.
2. Get four guys with 30+ HRs and four guys with 20+ SBs. If I am deciding between several comparable players, OBP and K/9 are the projections I pay the closest attention to.
3. Don’t use rounds 12-16 on any closer that doesn’t seem to have a stable job for the entire season.
Results -
1. Took a SP in 3rd & 6th. Closers in 7th & 9th. Didn't fill SS until late.
2. Only have 2 guys that should get close to 30 HRs, and 3 guys with 20+ SBs. Found myself behind in OBP & SLG all draft.
3. Finally. Mission accomplished.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I'm not real happy with any of them. Not a lot of sex appeal to my roster. I would certainly like do-overs on Javier Baez at 16.04 and Ervin Santana at 20.04.
Taking Adam Jones at 2.04 probably should have been different. There were a lot of decent OFers available in rounds 6-9, while the positions I needed filled were too far down my list. Then they got picked by my next turn. Maybe should have been less afraid to reach.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Mailedfoot picked right before me on the odd rounds and took the top guy on my queue in rounds 1, 3, & 9.
Guru picked right before me on the even rounds, and took my top guy in rounds 2, 4, & 6.
Just based on that, I like those teams. I don't see any teams running away with it.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
It was 'holt' taking 2 closers with picks 5.16 & 6.01. There was an earlier than expected closer-run, and I had passed on a closer at 5.13, assuming 1 of 3 closers could make it back to me for 6.04. None did. Guru picked Victor Martinez at 6.03, my 4-man queue was shot, and I panicked. I took another SP, and ended up behind the field in SLG, OBP, and stress-free closers.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
-- Having ended up with draft slot # 13, I should have voted for 'bonzai draft' rather than 'standard'
-- I need to find a way to not be away from the computer 12-16 hours a day on the weekends. Making a 25-30 man queue every night is really hard, takes a lot of time, and the wife gets too mad at me for ignoring her. :)
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| 11 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Fri, Apr 10, 2015, 01:02
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Winning first pick and Mike Trout means I'll probably hold off on outfield to start out. Generally hold off on relief and catcher to start as well. So for the first turn, an infielder and starting pitcher to pair with Trout seemed like a nice base to go with. Then likely another infielder and start to think about outfield/relief/catcher or keep filling the infield. Picking at the end means willing to reach on picks is a must.
I'll usually try to focus on offense early and have faith that I can find pitching throughout the year. Generally 7 bats in first 10 picks, and another 6-7 in next 10 picks is ideal. Fill out the staff to end the draft. Focus on infield depth over outfield usually, and often avoid closer runs. Try to pick lead candidates with warts or top notch setup candidates. This strategy was really cemented my last time in RIBC. Uptown Bombers won handily without saves and had a killer offense, and I have never drafted relievers high since seeing that result. I can't fully commit to punt saves yet though, always trying to get one low end option and a few backup filler options to try my luck with.
More recently, I saw another strategy that I really liked in AAA last year with the Shield rostering Felix, Kershaw, Lester at some point and just killing the pitching stats and having excellent depth for stretch drive trade options. So the focus on elite starting pitching depth has made it's way into my ideal lineup this year. Picking at the turn really requires letting my gut have a lot of input on things this year.
This leads me to absolutely love my pitching staff, but really gives me worry that I didn't fill my offense before round 20, and that I really let the outfield depth slide. To have what I feel is 4 aces in my staff and some decent tickets in the closer lottery and decent tickets for extra SP depth is a very fair tradeoff to me. Struggled to find arms and had good luck finding bats last season was another key factor in this thinking.
Despite winning the AAA league, I really drafted poorly again last year, so it's not like I just randomly decided to let my gut take over on a lot of picks now that I'm back in the bigs. This gut strategy has led me to drafting well once or twice in the past, which is a bit better result than I've ever acheived by just letting my brain do the work.
Already looking to trade a starting arm for some depth at outfield, and will be quite active on the wire and possibly trades throughout the season.
Really like the core group I've drafted this year.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Last of all RIBC drafts: Ross, Degrom, Andrus, Soria, AaSanchez. Ross, Degrom and Soria specifically among my absolute favourite picks.
First of all RIBC drafts: Santana, Bryant, Harrison, Pompey, Cron, MCastro, Iannetta. Iannetta has been dropped for outfield depth- Coghlan. Qualifies as a do over. I think Santana in an OBP league is worth the reach. Bryant if the Cubs ever let him loose is worth the reach. I like Harrison but not where I picked him. Same with Pompey and Cron. I think Pompey will do OK, just had to have him no matter what. Not sure Cron will really get the chance to do OK. Harrison and Cron definite do overs in hindsight. MCastro is super worth the reach, already.
Trout is a favourite pick regardless. I think Sonny Gray is gonna compete for the ALCY, 7th round! Doolittle in the 10th isn't so great but it's nice to have the Oakland options in hand at least. Lorenzo Cain in the 15th could turn out very nice, as well as Paxton in 18th. Obviously I love a lot of my own picks.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Uptown Bombers, Graydog, Sanfordors have standout offenses to me. Foot and Guru with standout pitching staffs. Some of the weaker drafts will end up finding the gems on the wire and ultimately have stronger teams so it's really hard to predict finish, but for overall draft depth (relative to my personal tastes and biases) my filthy senses like Guru & Ksoze standing out as the top teams. Injury bug will play a big role before it's all done. Every other team looks really good also and ready to pounce any chance they can! Graydog is a longtime friend and nemesis that I'm certain will be a threat. Holt and Uptown are often a big threat. And everyone else really, it's the bigs, what did we expect!
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The drafting speed. Lack thereof. My previous drafts in the bigs seemed to go by faster than I was comfortable for. This time left me a lot of chances to overthink. This could be more due to my personal preparedness and schedule flexibility in each big league draft I've participated in. Possible just my Blue Jays excitedness meter reaching levels it hasn't seen in ages. Major impatience for me this year's draft though.
The early closers drafted didn't surprise me as most others suggest? I do try to pay closers little mind early on though. The fringe options were starting to fall around 8th-12th rounds, which is pretty standard to my expectations. Trying to get a jump on the top options is just not worth the worry!
Overall felt like our league really wasn't valuing starting pitching as much as I do and even as much as I had expected. The outfield and CI markets got sucked bare of what I thought were average or passable names, while I was filling out the pitching staff with what I think are great depth options, but considering the below average filler I'm starting out with, I feel like I should have been less picky when deciding which CI/OF options were passable.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
As just mentioned, showing some more restraint on these arms and focus more on filling out my offense late would be smarter. My gut still would be screaming at me that I'd regret passing on any of Paxton, Sanchez, Norris or Castro though. I'm confident I'll beef up my offensive filler throughout the year anyway, and meanwhile will just try to build up a solid base of pitching stats to trade from.
Number one turning point pick would be Danny Santana rather than Josh Harrison. Blackmon or Melky when I grabbed Degrom was maybe even a bigger turning point. Not so much at the time, but I think Pagan or Plouffe when I grabbed Sanchez might have been smart now that the season has begun. Bourn when I grabbed Norris as well. Consistently passing on adding to the offensive depth. Could backfire, but I'll hopefully be building up a solid pitching foundation while trying to figure it out.
I think the speed and percentages will be kind to me and just might be enough considering the starting depth and the relief results in the closer lottery I'm having so far. Interested to see some of these thoughts at the end of year mostly.
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