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0 Subject: RIBC 2016: Draft recap

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Tue, Mar 29, 2016, 09:07

RIBC Managers: This thread is for your (optional) overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say.

1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Non-managers are also free to post comments or ask questions.
1blue hen
      Dude
      ID: 710321114
      Tue, Mar 29, 2016, 09:45
Great draft!

1. My drafts tend to follow a pattern. I usually overindex on hitters and relievers, waiting forever for a catcher. I usually do well in saves, OBP, and strikeouts. And I often hedge, passing on players who I have in other leagues.

It worked out pretty well this year. I took my catcher in the 23rd round, I only drafted 6 SP (one of whom is already on the chopping block), and I did manage to get two high strikeout SP along with a bunch of high strikeout RP.

On the flip side, I missed the second closer run and am trolling the dregs after Rosenthal. I completely missed out on third base, relying on two technicalities to fill the position. And it looks like I'm short one hitter after all that.

Overall, pretty happy with the top of my roster; could be better down below.

2. Any draft that starts with Giancarlo Stanton and Chris Davis is already on its way. Also please to have gotten Masahiro Tanaka at 10, and Joey Gallo at 17 (especially with that 3B eligibility).

I'd change things listed in #1 based on not executing - would be better at 3B and RP.

3. It shouldn't be close - BMD is going to win this league. Again and again, he picked the guys I wanted right before my turn. After round 15, it was hit after hit: Arodys, Ozuna, Cron, Moss, Jaso, and Caminero. Cron and Jaso, especially, are going to be huge contributors this year. That's what you need when you take a SP with your first pick.

4. I'll tell you what didn't surprise me - twilson taking forever and a Wednesday on every single pick.

5. Hard to say. I probably should have kept better track of positions than just going for best available talent.

2Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 29, 2016, 15:20
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

My standard strategy is to get hitters with the first 3 picks, then get two "quality" closers in the next 3-5 rounds (depending on how the draft unfolds), and wait until round 9 to start drafting SPs. This approach has worked well for me in the past - at least, my pitching rankings have been very good in spite of generally being the last one to take a SP. I ended up getting my first starter (Tyson Ross) in round 8 (rather than 9), but still got my targeted hitter in round 9, so worked out OK.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

I like Tyson Ross at 8.12, Andrew Miller at 11.05, Adam Lind at 14.12, Cervelli at 19.05, and Brock Holt at 21.05 - my super sub.
I'm also happy with my deep stable of relievers: Wade Davis, Chapman, Miller, Romo, Strop, & Tony Watson. Hopefully they cooperate to keep my ratios in check, and hopefully the latter three will eventually generate some saves.


3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Based on Rotowire projections (which I don't necessarily ascribe to in many instances, but they are easy to work with for modeling) - Tilt23 has an exceptionally solid team. Rotowire also likes my squad. After that, about 8 of the teams look very closely ranked.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Once a run got started, it really took hold. Closers were more bunched in rounds 5-6 than in some years. Starting with 5.04, half of the next 32 picks were closers. There was also a smaller run on MI somewhere in the mid-to-late teens, although I'm having trouble seeing it now, so maybe it really wasn't as intense as it seemed like at the time.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Take Joe Ross for my SP5 at 18.12, rather than drafting Asdrubal Cabrera with that pick. I eventually ended up with Medlen as my SP5, and that might all work out. Other than that, I never really coveted a do-over.
3kdl212
      ID: 56138261
      Wed, Mar 30, 2016, 01:45
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I don't enter with a plan, other than 3 out of first 4 picks should be hitters, preferably 2 boppers. I didn't accomplish my goal - instead of taking Cano in round 3 and starting pitcher in 4, I went with a starting pitcher in 3; and instead of taking a bopper in round 4, I went with Heyward. But in an OBP league, Heyward was too good of a value to pass up. Other than that, my strategy is to stick to value in the middle rounds despite roster needs, and I stuck to that.


2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Favorite picks: Syndergaard in the 5th round and Werth-Nicasio-Gattis in rounds 20-21-22. Fortune made the Jeffress pick in the 16th look more promising than it did when I made it.

Do-over: Cano instead of Kluber in 3; Lind or Alvarez instead of Hammel in 14.


3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
They all look both more promising and full of holes. I got the sense that Blue Hen and I were drafting off the same cheat sheet, not necessarily because he was taking guys I wanted, but because we seemed to be drafting similar positions many rounds.


4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Maybe it's the same as it ever was, but I thought there was complete irrationality when it came to drafting middle infielders this year. Managers were loading up on backup shortstops in the middle rounds who are total garbage, and passing up what I thought were much more valuable hitters and pitchers. I left the draft without a backup middle infielder, but I'm betting that I can find someone who'll hit 300/340 on the waiver wire when I need a replacement at middle infield much more easily than I can find Jayson Werth's 350 OBP or Evan Gattis's slugging and RBIs.


5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I would've dropped to pick 11 instead of 8 because I would have preferred a second bopper in round 2 instead of a guy like Marte, who only pays off if keeps stealing 25+ bases and he comes in at 90 RBIs. I guess I could've picked JD Martinez or Miguel Sano (both of whom were awesome for my team last year, from Round 9 and the waiver wire), but I didn't see either as worth a round 2 pick.
4Great One
      ID: 330592710
      Wed, Mar 30, 2016, 09:54
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

After the top picks went I figured I’d go close to the end of the round, near a back to back just to make my drafting easier but also because I can plan 2 picks at a time. I always try to find power early on because I struggle to find after the draft. I don’t feel like I came away with enough of it – especially early on. I think some later picks like Duda helped make up for it a bit.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

I love me some Mookie (and Kris Bryant) because they are guys that could get even better. At least I know what their floors are. Mookie especially is awesome with OBP. But his OF positions means I shouldn’t have taken…. -àCarlos Gonzalez will probably make or break this squad… I went back and forth 10 times vs. an IF option (like Tulo, Frazier, Kipnis) and am still not sure why I wound up going back to Cargo. Partly because he burned me last year when I traded him away right before he went nuts after June 1. So he’s probably going to burn me 2 seasons in a row. I think I did well with Holliday and Gio in the 13th and 15th rounds – they should be steady contributors and good fits for this league.


3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I love Guru’s squad. I think its fascinating to wait on the starting pitching. It is soemthing you can find as you go along and mix and match based on matchups. So a good strategy in a deep league.

Titl has the slugger setup I like – 5 straight stluggers to start. And then got some good deals on pitching late and just got Osuna named closer. He’s a little thin on speed however.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

After not picking an IF and taking Cargo – every damn 2B/SS disappeared which is what really threw my plan out the window. I usually always take MI early and work outward, but then decided to ignore positional scarcity and I feel like I got burned. Should have stood by my standard strategy cause now my IF consists of Starlin, Brad Miller and Baez.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

I wish instead of Greinke or Gray I took one other slugging infielder. I feel like I’m behind the 8-ball there. Mailedfoot took Maikel Franco right before I planned too and I kind of panicked with Sonny Gray and then I figured I’d take a closer but Holt took Kimbrel/Familia back to back setting off the closer run. But isntead of reacting to that I tried to make up for Franco and took Longoria which is probably not going to get the job done. That was my most disappointing series of events. I wanted to come away from those picks with Franco and then a closer.
5Tilt23
      ID: 412151815
      Wed, Mar 30, 2016, 12:03
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

My draft plan is the same as always for this league. Draft best hitter available first 4-5 rounds regardless of position, emphasizing power over speed. Generally when I pick people up during the year it is easier to find speed not power. Start or be at the beginning of closer run next as I will not be able to pick up many saves throughout the year. Draft SPs heavy in rounds 9-18 as this is where I think the value is and I have had a lot of luck finding top SPs in these rounds.

It all went pretty much to plan. Never had a moment of panic or loss. My team has a lot of guys that need to perform to expectations and not have a lot of regression. My MI doesn't have the speed it usually has but I feel like my ratios are strong, I have power, SP just need a couple to breakthrough, before Osuna was named closer i was OK in saves now I should be at the top barring injury or papelbon imploding, and I will pick up SBs as I go.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Osuna being named closer makes that pick look better. I like Morales where I got him and I like a few of my SP esp Odorizzi and Wainwright I think they will anchor my staff well and were good value where I got them.

I don't really want a do over right now but as always my MI needs to improve and show up more then what most think. Taking sluggers early and not worrying about position I typically don't have a strong MI but would of liked to have at least couple of proven guys there like Panik, Pedroia, or even more speed there then what I took in Gregorious.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? I like Gurus team, I feel like we were drafting with similar cheat sheets and values. Even though he was picking 5th and me 13th seemed like a guy at the top of my queue would go to his team every pick and of course that is right when I am getting serious about setting my queue so I felt it.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
nothing really had a lot of pauses and slow downs. the runs were expected and SPs lasted like I hoped. I was not surprised by the MI run or the MI being taken middle late, I was taking starters there not backups and you have to fill out a roster and reaching at that point is expected

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
No not really would of paid more attention at the end of the draft and maybe took a few more high upside guys in bullpen or young SP
6beastiemiked
      ID: 5911312710
      Wed, Mar 30, 2016, 13:42
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

When I selected the 4th slot I was planning on taking Kershaw unless one of the hitters fell. With Kershaw I have an anchor that'll be elite in 4 out of 5 pitching categories. I knew with him my pitching should at least be middle of the road. After that I wanted to get value from hitters. I knew I wanted an elite closer. After the first handful of guys it's a crapshoot.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Ozuna in the 17th and Jaso in the 22nd. I also like my high upside guys in rounds 12-15. Walker, Myers, Ventura, and Vizcaino.

Richards in the 9th, De La Rosa in the 20th, and Lowrie in the 22nd(thought he was MI eligible).

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Nobody's really stood out in either direction. Just when I saw a team I liked I'd see a pick I really didn't like. Kinda great thing about this league is everybody is pretty much on the same level.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

How much quality pitching was available in rounds 10-20? Samardzija or Jordan Zimmerman will probably be the steals of the draft.

Very surprised at some of the (C)losers take so early.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Would've waited on picking up my 2nd SP. Made a predraft spreadsheet. I was blindly picking the last few rounds. I phoned it in, literally.
7holt
      ID: 282541323
      Tue, Apr 05, 2016, 01:33
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

You need to score well in all 10 categories to win this league. With my first 10 picks, I want all 10 categories anchored, and hopefully all ten of those players will stay rostered all season. The last 15 picks, I know that almost all of them will be cut at some point, so I lean toward players with upside, aka sleepers. I mean, I want a 20th rounder who plays like an 8th rounder, not like a 20th rounder.

I did my best, and did feel pretty good about my squad until Pollock broke his elbow in the last game of the spring. My 1st rd pick who I expected to be a significant contributor in all 5 offensive categories, likely done for the year. Anyway, I drafted Votto for his great OBP, Cruz for his great SLG, Price, Hamels, Kimbrel, and Familia give me a good start on all 5 pitching categories. Then Zobrist, Story, and Ho Park, who I expect to have good seasons while filling my MI/CI slots. I guess I started with sleeper picks in rd 9. With my later picks I think I got a decent mix of sleepers and semi-reliable players who I can plug into the lineup for a while.




2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Votto at 2.01, who I believe to be undervalued in this league. Trevor Story at 9.16, which was probably a bit of a reach, but the shortstop position is a wasteland and I think he will perform better than his #144 draft position. Jake Lamb in the 20th, I like, and Devon Travis in the 21st (which I like a lot more before Pollock got hurt - now I have two injured players filling roster slots).

Obviously, I would do the Pollock pick over, given any chance to do so. At this point, I've lowered my goal to finishing in the top 7. My only prayer of winning is if I get huge seasons from multiple late picks, like Story, Ho Park, Paulsen, Travis, or Lamb. Mesoraco, maybe?

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I think GO, kdl, and ywk look well rounded. I see a few other nice looking squads that just need to plug a hole or two. Only a couple teams look like stinkers to me, but what do I know? I drafted Pollock in the 1st rd, who had a sore and fragile elbow.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

I was most surprised at the lack of decent outfielders available in the last 10 rds. I was planning on scooping the goods, but there were not many goods to be scooped.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

I think I already covered that. This reminds me of the year that I drafted Tom Brady in RIFC, and then watched him go down in the 1st quarter of the first game. Extremely deflating. I've never gone into opening day of baseball season with such a hopeless feeling before. 7th place or bust.
8mailedfoot
      ID: 27912109
      Fri, Apr 15, 2016, 17:11
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

Basic plan was to grab a couple of impact hitters with my first two picks and then start looking for players who may be undervalued while trying to fill out the roster. I was hoping that Mookie Betts might fall to me for my second round pick but that’s not really something you can plan on. My experience with drafting in this league is that I don’t ever quite feel like I am able to execute as planned because the league so deep and the competition too good to let players slide too far. This year was no different in that respect.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Favorite picks are probably Springer, Bogaerts, Franco, and Fowler. I’ve developed a habit of reaching for guys who may be on the cusp of breaking out. It is a rush to get a pick like that right because those are picks that can give you an edge on the competition. Fowler atop the Cubs line up will be Yuge, I promise you!

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I haven’t really looked too deeply at the other teams because I can never predict which ones will be good anyway.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Nothing really jumped out at me during the course of the draft.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

There were a couple of rushed picks later in the proceedings where I was pressed for time and hadn’t prepared properly. I wish I had taken a little more time with those.
9twilson
      ID: 37573115
      Wed, Apr 20, 2016, 19:06
It took me a couple weeks for my feelings about the draft to fade enough to write a draft recap. I did my best to answer all questions as if I had written them before the season started. The only exception is my bonus question #6, which is specifically about what has changed in the past few weeks. If you have any specific questions beyond what you find below, please ask!

1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

As always, my basic plan is to follow the value wherever it leads me. Every draft is different, but there do seem to be some trends that continually pop up.

(A) Mostly wait on starting pitching, but be willing to take an ace if the situation requires.
(B) Don’t fill up the outfield too quickly. There is more late talent there than at any other offensive position.
(C) Build a bullpen with top arms only, be they elite closers or quality middle relievers. Speculate for saves judiciously.
(D) Grab SBs whenever it looks like a value. Filling this category is an annual struggle.
(E) Make sure to get some power early. You can never have enough power.

Was I able to execute? I think I had a terrible draft. There are very few picks that I loved, and probably the most ever that I’d like to have back. How did I screw up? Let me count the ways.

(A) I twice drafted someone to play 1B that did not qualify at the position. My only first baseman is a 20th round part-timer.
(B) I filled both my CI and UT slots by the 5th round, vastly reducing my draft flexibility. There were a lot of interesting bargain 3B that would’ve been very interesting to own (Jake Lamb and Travis Shaw in particular), but I had nowhere to play them.
(C) Speaking of this, Tyler White is in exactly the same boat until he manages 10 games at first.
(D) I massively screwed up at closer. The only guy I own who is even a definitive set-up man is 41 years old. The Will Smith injury was a freak accident, but there is no guarantee he was even going to beat out Jeremy Jeffress for the job.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

As I said before, my favorite picks were few and far between. I like my DeSclafani/Alex Wood pairing in rounds 17/18. I’m excited to have the Cardinals duo of Carpenter and Piscotty. I think Yelich was a good value at pick #90. Daniel Murphy should be a really solid roster piece.

My Andrew Bailey pick in the 16th round was an outright disaster. He was last elite 5 years ago, is coming off major shoulder surgery, plays for the worst team in baseball, and wasn’t even guaranteed the closer job. When I had later opportunities to invest a 25th round pick or free agent pickup in similar players (Hinojosa and Jeanmar Gomez), I didn’t even deem it worth my time. I wouldn’t have totally hated it in the 22nd round or later, but any time prior to that was a complete breakdown of my draft process.

Other mistake picks were Frazier in the 4th and Khris Davis in the 14th. If I was going to double up on a position within the first four rounds, it should’ve been SS instead of 3B. I also just don’t like Frazier that much as a player. Khris Davis would’ve been Adam Lind had I not screwed up my eligibility list so badly.

Finally, I messed up my selection of draft slot. I should’ve stuck with my strengths and drafted toward the end of the round. That would’ve allowed me to open with a pair of strong hitters, or failing that, a similar hitter to Correa with a better pitcher. A few alternate starts for thought: Stanton/Gordon (slot 10), Cabrera/Scherzer (slots 11-14), Bryant/Betts (slot 15). Later on, I’d have participated in the closer run at acceptable points and been able to build a more balanced roster positionally.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I always like Guru’s team, and this year is no exception. He is always able to execute a plan that is similar to my ideal.

Kdl212 has a big hole at SS, but otherwise I really appreciate his roster.

Beastiemiked has Kershaw/Jansen and an outfield full of good value; the infield is respectable too. I don’t like his pitching depth.

Honestly, I’m impressed with how many teams have rosters that look pretty solid to me. There are only 2 or 3 teams that strike me as of a lower quality, and I could write positive little blurbs about most of the rest.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

I was surprised by a few things. The closer run felt as intense as it ever has been, and it never really slowed down. There didn’t seem to be as heavy an emphasis on middle infielders as usual, especially shortstops. Those guys normally go at a premium.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

So, so much. First of all, I would choose a different draft slot. That would’ve given me a more comfortable opening few rounds and the opportunity to participate appropriately in the closer run.

I would avoid Andrew Bailey like the plague.

Accepting my actual draft slot, I would’ve gone Rendon/Pujols/(Ortiz or Yelich) in rounds 4-6 instead of Frazier/Ortiz/Yelich. Another option would’ve been opening with Rizzo in the 1st and then Corey Seager in the 4th. Barring that, I would’ve chosen Adam Lind over Khris Davis at 14.10.

6. Has your mind changed about anything after the first two weeks of the season?

Despite all my misgivings about the draft, I somehow stand atop the leaderboard as of April 20th. A good chunk of this is early fortune in the Wins category, along with having more IP than anybody else, but I’m still very pleasantly surprised about that at the moment. My hole at closer is still as wide as ever, but that has been offset by some really strong offensive starts by Murphy, Carpenter, Ortiz, and Tyler White.

One thing my bad draft did was motivate me to find every edge elsewhere. I’ve been a very active streamer on both sides of the ball. Hopefully, I can sustain that approach for a while before I lose steam, as it has greatly benefitted me thus far.

My hot start has given me much more confidence that I can avoid relegation. I still highly doubt my chances of finishing on top, but I would consider top six a decided success.
10GO
      ID: 47227520
      Thu, Apr 21, 2016, 21:25
You get the award for best writeup!
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