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0 Subject: RIBC 2017: Draft Rationale Collection Thread

Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Wed, Mar 15, 2017, 13:05
RIBC managers: Please post your rationales in this thread. Rationales are due on a two round lag (i.e., when you make you 3rd round pick, your 1st round rationale is due). You can post any rationale sooner than that if you wish.

Do not worry about placeholders or keeping things in the proper sequence. This is just a place to collect rationales, which I will then transfer over to the formal rationale thread in the proper sequence. This approach has worked well for the past several seasons, and I now have a somewhat automated method for making those transfers.

Remember that you should refrain from mentioning undrafted players. If you feel that your rationale requires that, then hold it back until the player has been drafted - unless the player mentioned is clearly undraftable this year.

When posting your first rationale, please also comment on your choice of draft sequence.
Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.]
147kdl212
      ID: 43240617
      Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 13:52 		18.04 Blake Treinen, RP, WAS
Probably a throw-away pick, but the Nationals closer situation is muddled, and Treinen could end up with 10 saves. He throws a heavy sinker and strikes guys out, so he could run with it if they ever gave him a chance. More likely, Treinen is my first drop when the roster crunch sets in.

19.13 Starlin Castro, 2B, NYY
Was surprised to see him still available. He's my 4th MI, and he hit 333/500 at home last year, so maybe I just play him for home games. He is only 27, and while I'm not expecting double-digit steals, some nice counting stats would be very welcome at this point in the draft.

20.04 Mike Zunino, C, SEA
I have no interest in catchers before round 20. So it was round 20 and I surveyed the landscape. I probably could've waited until round 22 to make my choice and not have fared any worse, but I feel like each year one or two managers throw a wrench in the plans of the catcher-punters like me and draft a backup catcher. Of the remaining options, I saw the most upside in Zunino. He's had a couple of years to learn how to be a major league catcher, and is hopefully settling in so that he can focus more on the hitting side, mainly on not swinging-and-missing all the time. 320/480 is possible, but 290/450 is more likely. Unless he starts off hitting, I'm likely to cut bait for the catcher of the week.
148youngroman
      ID: 19238238
      Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 14:59 		19.06 Aaron Judge, OF, NYY

with 5 starters and 2 relievers I am already near my target in pitching. I may only add 1 starter or 2/3 relievers in the last rounds. until then I look at hitting.

I like going into the season with a replacement player for each position, except catcher. with 1 injured OF I do not have one yet at SS and OF, so these were the primary positions I looked at. I see no valueable SS out there, so I looked at what is left at OF. The first option I looked at was Aaron Judge. Looks like he won the job with his solid play this spring. he has enormous power potential, but also enormous strike-out potential. I mean MLB leading bad. If he figured out big league pitching and crushes balls over the fence he will stay on my team, otherwise there will be another player that does just that and will be happy to join my team.

20.11 Zack Cozart, SS, CIN

the only position, except catcher, that I have no backup for is SS. I also want a few more potential closers until the end of the draft. and I am missing a starting catcher.

There are some closer in waiting candidates and based on the other RIBC drafts I felt that I can wait 1 more round to start picking them. I don't like catchers. they are like kickers in football. someone in the last round should be good enough and if he sucks or is out for a game you get a replacement players that performs equally.

The SS options aren't great either. Cozart was my choice because his perentages should be slightly higher than those of other available options. And the Yankees have not decided yet what they do with their SS vacancy. Cozart is one of the names that gets mentioned. If the Yankees consider him, he must be good, right?
149ksoze
      ID: 7141224
      Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 18:51 		19.15 - Wacha, Michael - SP - STL

8 pitchers in for me, 3 from the Cards, here's hope the team doesn't crash and burn. Wacha is one bad season, due mainly to shoulder issues that are hopefully behind him now, removed from consistent eras in the low 3's and whips around 1.20. He's been good this spring. He's my 6th starter, in the 19th round. The value is there, here's hoping the results are. Kennedy and Cobb were on my list leading up to this pick, they both went first. Given the choice I'd have taken Kennedy first, Cobb third of the three. Also, I knew I wanted an OF as one of these two picks, I figured with only 4 SP's Holt was likely to take one on the turn; my list of desireable SP's was the same as OF's - 2 - i doubted Holt would take a pair of either on the turn but that, if he did, SP was more likely. Turns out he took one of each.

20.02 - Gordon, Alex - OF - KC

This pick was intended to fill my UTIL spot; Pillar was the other OF on my short list. At this point in the draft we're trying to find anything potentially positive right? Gordon had three straight years worthy of a draft pick much higher than this, then he fell off the cliff in 2016, hopefully due only to a wrist injury that's healed. When he was good his OPS was around .800... can he bounce back to somewhere near that at age 33? He's hitting well in ST so I'm going to believe so.
150mmikulka
      ID: 1122060
      Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 19:50 		21.07 Grant Dayton - RP, LAD

Dayton ended up undrafted in the AAAs and AA, so I probably would have been able to take him with my final pick. I wanted him on my team, though, and didn't want to risk somebody unexpectedly snapping him up.

Since my team's biggest weakness is likely starting pitching, I have been stockpiling elite relievers to make up for it: Steamer projects my RPs to be #4, #6, #11, #13, #16, and #27 in value from ERA/WHIP/Ks. Dayton is the #6.

There's also the added bonus that he's a quasi-handcuff to Jansen. Though he's a lefty, I've seen it suggested that Dayton would be the first choice to close if Jansen gets injured. He could also potentially secure me a few matchup saves that would have otherwise been lost.

All this, of course, assumes that Dayton is a dominant reliever again this year despite only 26.1 career MLB innings. His minor league stats seem to reinforce that school of thought, though, and he has been solid during Spring Training.

On a RP-related note, I like the Blake Treinen pick that kdl212 made a few rounds ago. Despite the popular consensus being Kelley and now Glover, I've been considering Treinen the frontrunner to start the year as closer in Washington (although that only means a 50-60% chance / although they'll probably trade for a closer at some point anyway).


22.10 Gio Gonzalez – SP, WAS

I was debating Gio Gonzalez and Tyler Skaggs for this pick, and decided to go with Gio for the higher projected innings and the more consistently useful track record.

He's clearly on the decline, but hopefully he'll have a bit of a bounce back from last year and give me 160+ innings of something tolerable like 3.95/1.32 with 11 wins and an 8.0 K/9.
151Uptown Bombers
      ID: 38261518
      Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 20:35 		21.10 Daniel Norris, SP, DET

Sure enough, after taking Perez with my last pick, my queue of pitchers (and batters too) was picked through pretty good. I probably should have just waited on catcher. At least a few of my picks are left, top among them Norris. Norris is a popular sleeper pick so there’s a good chance he doesn’t deliver this year and becomes next year’s post-hype sleeper. But he’s had a good spring and offers a fair amount of upside for this late stage in the draft. The managers picking twice after me seem mostly filled at SP. It looks to me that maybe 3 of them will be looking at SP at some point and I have a list of 6 pitchers in my queue. There is one RP I am hoping makes it back to me but I like Norris more than a few notches than the others and if he ends up fulfilling his promise, then his impact will likely be greater to my team than the RP.
152Uptown Bombers
      ID: 38261518
      Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 20:40 		22.07 Corey Knebel, RP, MIL

Knebel (who was my desired MR pick last round) should be in line behind Feliz, who had a bounce back last year. But can he do it again with the pressure of closing? Fangraphs says that if Knebel can work on his control, he will dominate. This spring Knebel has an 11:1 K:BB ratio and his manager says he has been “dominant, almost.” I read that as Counsell not wanting to undermine Feliz. Here’s to Neftali making me happy by blowing save chances. Knebel’s high K rate make him a useful MR option in either case at this stage.
153mailedfoot
      ID: 531322718
      Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 20:49 		20.12 Carl Edwards, RP, CHC
Added Edwards to boost my Ks and ratios; he is also a speculative play to take over the closer role at some point though he would have to leapfrog a bunch of relievers to do that. But the Cubs are in “win now” mode, so if he’s the best reliever in the pen, I think it is conceivable.

21.05 Ryan Pressly, RP, MIN
Pressley is a handcuff for Kintzler as I attempt to lock down the Twins saves. He has the stuff to close and there really is no one else in the Twins pen at present besides him and Kintzler as the other threats to close are injured or have been sent back to the minors.
154Boozer
      ID: 971677
      Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 21:37 		11.04 Victor Martinez DH Det

I had 3 sp's qued here, Felix Hernandez, Gausman, and Kuechel. 2 of them
grabbed right from under me.

Switched gears, theres still a glut of run producers with moderate power. Victor is old but steady, and is gonna get early at bats, which will hopefully translate to 500+



12.03 Adam Duvall OF Cinc

Stuck with the run producers through this turn. Young, solid breakout season in '16, lots of upside.
155Bmd
      ID: 825715
      Mon, Mar 27, 2017, 22:05 		16.09 Jeff Samardzija, SP, SFG

Old reliable. Jeff has been extremely consistent for the past few years. I expect more of the same. I think he fell a bit because of his spring. It was a little concerning but sounded more like mechanical issues and not injuries or decline in skills.

17.08 Taijuan Walker, SP, ARI

He showed flashes of greatness last year. Moving to the NL should be a positive. Started to kick myself for drafting 3 SPs in the first 9 rounds. So much quality still out there.
156beastiemiked
      ID: 481162721
      Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 00:13 		18.09 Travis Jankowski, OF, SDG

At this point I was very light on stolen bases. I had guys that could get 10+ but no real threats that could get 30. Jankowski stole 30 bases in 383 at bats last year. I would love a repeat of that but playing time could be an issue. It looks like the Padres will be opening the season with some injuries so I'm hoping Jankowski can light it up the first few months. If his playing time becomes sparse then I'll cut bait. He's going to be a major drag on Slg but when I drafted Gyorko I did so knowing I was going to hopefully get a speedster with a halfway decent OBP so they could balance each other out. I actually started looking at Heyward and Gardner with this pick. Both are safer options that will steal bags but neither will get 30+.

19.08 Jason Heyward, OF, CHC

How the mighty have fallen. He had one of the worst possible fantasy years possible. He was huge negative in every category except SB's and those he only stole 11 bases. He had a .631 OPS last year. I definitely expect more. Most projections have him around .750 or so. In 2015 he had a .798 with 23 stolen bases. Why can't he do that again? He's only 27 so he shouldn't be declining. Who knows. If I had to redo this pick I probably would've picked Joyce just because he's so intriguing and could get regular at bats in Oakland. I also considered Folty here but figured there was a good chance he'd slip to me.

20.09 Mike Foltynewicz, SP, ATL

Everybody has that one guy that they "have" to have. Foltynewicz is mine. He's the Paul Wilson and Jeremy Affledt for me(I'd always draft these two and always end up extremely disappointed). It's that potential that he could become great but more than likely he'll stay in mediocrity. Didn't really consider anyone else with this pick as I didn't want to miss out on Mike.
157beastiemiked
      ID: 481162721
      Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 00:20 		21.08 Byung Ho Park, 1b, MIN

I was long overdue for a CI spot. Really thought Chris Carter was already gone but he wasn't. Might've picked him here if I had known he was available. Park was terrible last year. He's fighting for a job this year. However, Vargas had just gotten injured a day or two before so I figured Park is more likely to see some PT early in the season. In the 21st round I like to take chances on guys that have some upside. Park has some nice projections out there from the experts. .450 slugging would be nice with a slightly below OBP. He could exceed those but anything around those with good amount of at bats and I would be happy.

As I mentioned, Carter would've been a consideration if I knew he was available. Also, Vizcaino was in my mind as a handcuff for JJ.
158Seattle Zen
      ID: 301361318
      Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 12:04 		22.16.352 Espinoza, Danny - LAA - 2nd/SS

I felt I needed a back up middle infielder, ideally someone qualified at both second and short. I had three guys in mind, Danny, who does meet the dual qualification, Kolton Wong and one undrafted.

Remember way back in another carefree era where a 24 year old slick gloved shortstop for the Nationals hit 21 homers and stole 17 bases? He was then drafted in the 11th round by average in the five RIBC leagues during the Obama/Romney campaign of 2012. Danny was taken in between Edwin Encarncion and Max Sherzer that year on average. Some careers are not like the others...

His OPS declined, but he still hit 17 homers and stole 20 bags in 2012, leading him to get picked in the ninth round by average in 2013. It went downhill from there. Last year was the first time he had over 600 plate appearances since 2012. He also had a career high 24 dingers, yet his slugging percentage was a dismal .378.

He now plays for Los Angels de Los Angeles as their starting second baseman. That makes three LAA bats on my team. He had a career high 9% walk rate last year, giving me hope that he can produce a league average OBP. If either Jorge Polanco or Schimpf fail to produce, perhaps Danny E can fill in.

23.01.353 Iwakuma, Hisashi - SEA - SP

I already posted my love note to Kuma. I honestly insisted to myself that I would let him go this year because the last three times I drafted him it was at a level that he didn't meet. Well, 23rd round is time to gamble. I did have a list of starters I was going to take over Hisashi, but they all got swiped right ahead of me - Tyler Skaggs, Charlie Morton and Zack Davies. E Rodriguez was a coin flip.

Kuma's success rides on his ability to nearly eliminate walks and generate weak contact with his highly effective sinker/slider. Last season he just didn't have it. If he still does not in April, I'll move on.
159holt
      ID: 57232523
      Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 12:21 		19.16 Toles, Andrew OF LAD

Was a little frustrated that Ksoze took Wacha at 19.15. Very surprising. Anyway, I ended up taking a shot on Toles due to his potential to steal some bases while not hurting obp/slg. Right now it appears that he is the strong side of a LF platoon. He had an .870 OPS in 48 games with the Dodgers last season, along with an .884 OPS/23 SB in 82 games in the minors. Prior to that he worked in the frozen food section at Kroger's. Prior to that he was minor league player of the year for Tampa Bay in 2013, hitting .326 with 62 steals. Apparently he suffered from anxiety after that, got released, learned some lessons, and got back into baseball. My team is weak in the SB dept so Toles could potentially be a big boost. I still needed help at CI and MI but those options are all of the ho-hum variety and I thought it was better to take a shot on a player with some upside.



20.01 Hellickson, Jeremy SP PHI

Decided to take my 5th SP here as they start falling like dominoes in this part of the draft. Hellickson had a 3.71/1.15 154K in 189IP line last season. That's pretty strong for a pitcher still available in the 20th rd. Granted, he had some weak seasons in 2013-2015 (after strong seasons in 2011-2012). The difference seems to be in his use of the changeup. "Hellickson’s whiff/swing on his changeup in 2016 (48.3%) was second among starting pitchers to only the Cubs’ Jake Arrieta (49.3%). Hellickson also threw 5 times as many changeups as Arrieta."

I think that his weak prior seasons are a major reason that all of his projections are so low. I wouldn't pay him $17M like the Phillies did, but I will draft him in the 20th rd.




21.16 Soler, Jorge OF KAN

Soler has a .258/.328/.434 slash after 3 seasons with Cubs, but he was only 22 when they first called him up. Who can blame them after he destroyed the minors with an OPS of 1.132? I think it's possible the the move to KC will do him some good. He's only 25 and has plenty of talent. I don't think I'm taking any great risk in drafting him as the 336 player overall. About an hr after I draft him it is reported that he has a strained oblique and may miss a week or two. Oh well. It's a damn sight better than what happened with I drafted Pollock last season. I'll take it.



22.01 337 Freese, David 3B PIT

As much as I'd prefer not to select any of the CI remaining, I still need to fill that slot, so here we go. May as well try Freese first. Who knows what will happen with Kang? And Freese is a good defender at both 1st and 3rd. Freese's slash of .270/.352/.412 last season is about the same as his career numbers. I'll work on improving my team as the season goes on but for right now Freese is a starter for me. I passed on Chris Carter because at this point it is questionable if he has much of a role for the Yankees. I also felt tempted to take M Reynolds to start the season but how many games is he going to get to start? Ian Desomond will probably be back in April sometime. Dietrich was an option until Ksoze snagged him right in front of me. I may as well take this opportunity to express my disgust at Ksoze taking Ryu out from under me at 23.15. Not cool.
160Dave R
      ID: 530392313
      Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 16:22 		14.06 Jay Bruce OF NYM

Historically Bruce has had an OPS well in excess of .800, until years 2014-2015. Last year was a bounce back year of sorts, as he recorded and OPS of .815, despite a low of .309 in OBP, due to his carreer 2nd highest SLG% of .506.

Maybe that's just the way it will go for Bruce from now on, or maybe last year was a fluke, and he will revert to his down years of 2014-2015. I'm banking on 30 HR's , 90 RBI'S and 75 runs scored, hitting in the middle of the Met's lineup

20.06 Leonys Martin OF Sea

Lost in what was seemingly another average season, was the fact that at 28 years old, it was Martins best season. Leonys is a drain on SLG%, and doesn't offer much in the way of RBI's, but he can score runs and he can steal bases. So I'm just hoping for another year of improvement.

21.11 Kevin Pillar OF Tor

Pillar is another attempt to bolster SB's. Kevin is probably a better defensive OFer than hitter, which should serve to keep him in the lineup. Getting someone who is virtually guaranteed nearly 600 AB's in round 21 is a bonus, and I'm hoping for a continuation of the solid spring Kevin has had.
161kdl212
      ID: 43240617
      Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 16:39 		21.13 Gerardo Parra, OF, COL
An April special, as he should start in the outfield until David Dahl comes back. Then, when he returns to the bench, I drop him for a middle reliever who we've never heard of but is striking out guys at an 11k/9 pace. They emerge every year, and I aim to grab one with this roster slot. The pick was down to Parra and Soler - with Soler offering much more promise, but I just couldn't get behind a league switch + the move to a power-suppressing environment. The short-term dazzle of Coors Field may prove to be a costly distraction.

22.04 Colin McHugh, SP, HOU
A dead-arm must explain why he's lasted this long. Otherwise, he'd have gone 6 rounds earlier. Nothing sexy, and not much upside, but he pitches for a winner, and some better luck on batted balls this year could leave him with decent innings when all is said and done.
162Uptown Bombers
      ID: 38261518
      Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 19:46 		23.10 Raul Mondesi, 2B, KC

No real serious expectations for him. I wanted a backup at 2B to start the season and Mondesi was just named the starter. I doubt he will continue to hit at his current pace once the season starts but he should get a chance to do that for the first few weeks. I’ll plug him in when I can to log the GP’s and hope for a few cheap steals. I’ll keep him as long as he’s decent. Chose him over Kolten Wong, who was probably a safer pick for the long term but if Mondesi truly has turned the corner and is serviceable, then his speed upside is worth the gamble.
163Uptown Bombers
      ID: 38261518
      Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 19:47 		24.07 Joe Kelly, RP, BOS

I had Michael Saunders at the top of a 2 man queue but he was snatched. It took a long time for my pick to come up and when I finally got a chance to check the day’s news, I saw that Thornburg was headed to the DL. I had my eye on him earlier in the draft before he was taken, as I had an odd hunch that maybe Kimbrel unexpectedly has a bad year. I know it’s not very likely, but since that was my hunch that made me want Thornburg, I moved Kelly up to the top of my queue. I’d still rather have Saunders and wait for another RP in the next round, but at this late stage, there’s not much else to go on but hunches.
164Boozer
      ID: 971677
      Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 21:32 		13.14 Yoan Moncada CWS 2B

Another of several spots I probably should have picked up some more saves.
But this guy was too hard to pass up. He'll be a monster at some point, just hope it's sooner than later.
I'll make room to hold him.

14.03 Dylan Bundy SP, Bal

he and Gausman will be #1 and #2 in Baltimore for a while, with Tillman uncertain.
He's 24 and Gausman is 26, I like the fact their being thrown into positions of responsibility early. And there is a security to it.
Bundy not having a great spring but lets see when it counts.
i think he'll end up being a solid 14th round pick and I dont think he wouldve lasted till it came back around

165Dave R
      ID: 442121620
      Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 21:34 		22.06 Eduardo Rodriguez SP Bos

I was looking for another SP, and while there were some safer options I thought I'd give Eduardo a shot. Who know, he may end up back in the minors when Boston's staff is fully healthy.


He got off to a slow start last year recovering from a knee injury, but after the All Star break fashioned an ERA of 3.24, WHIP of 1.13, while striking out better than a batter per inning in 14 starts. If he can carry that over to this year, I would think he can keep a spot in the rotation.

Of course , he just got shelled yesterday, but other than that he had pitched well this spring.

23.11 Brad Brach RP Bal

I have no delusions of Brad getting a closer gig with Britton on the Orioles, unless there's an injury, and that might not even get him a full time job. But he's been a reliable set up man for Baltimore, last year posting an ERA of 2.04, WHIP of 1.05 all while striking out 92 batter in 79 innings, picking up a couple saves along the way. Those kind of numbers can only help my staff.

24.06 Matt Duffy 3B Tam

I know he's hurt and I know he's had a slower recovery than usual. I know he wasn't drafted in any other RIBC leagues. But I thought he was worth a gamble as the 374th player taken. Duffy is listed as 3B in ESPN, but when he returns he will be the starting SS for Tampa. This is the guy who finished 2nd as the National League ROY in 2015, when he slashed .295/.334/.428 with 12 homers and 77 RBI, adding a dozen SB's

Matt is still only 26 so you cant say his best years are behind him, I think they're yet to come.

But who knows, maybe I'll become impatient and toss him back on the scrap pile.
166Bmd
      ID: 825715
      Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 21:54 		22.09 Trevor Bauer, SP, CLE

Was surprised he stuck around but shouldn't be as pitching just seems so plentiful this year. The difference between Bauer and Gerrit Cole isn't that much. Really kicking myself for drafting Martinez, Carrasco, and Cole now. Bauer has the potential to be a stud. He's walk prone but he seems like at any given time he could put it all together. Looking for slightly improved numbers than last year but even if he repeats them it's not too bad. I can bench him for the tougher matchups and still maintain a good k rate and get some wins.
167Boozer
      ID: 971677
      Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 21:55 		15.14 J.A. Happ, Tor, SP

Pleased with this pick. getting older but healthy and hard to argue with last years numbers 195IP, 3.18/1.17/163SO. 20 wins? wat??
Not bad for 4th starter

16.03 Matt Wieters C wash

So march 22nd was my birthday and both these picks were made the next morning by queue. I was happy just not to have held things up.

How much damage could I do queing up some catchers? and maybe Wieters just needs a change of scenery, and a full season. hard to believe hes already getting old


168Boozer
      ID: 971677
      Tue, Mar 28, 2017, 22:19 		17.14 Ervin Santana SP Minn

Ive been a believer in stocking up on Starting pitching once most positions are adequately covered.

Then you throw them against the wall and see who sticks.

Had Ervin for awhile last year, he was a decent producer, and he's #1 on a bad team, has that going for him too.

18.03 Robert Gsellman SP Mets

Ok one more young SP. Kryptonite He'll start the season in the rotation and have a chance to make something happen, if he does im on that train, if not he gets the ax.

169youngroman
      ID: 19238238
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 04:35 		21.06 Luke Gregerson, RP, HOU

I am now down to catcher or reliever. all the catchers are similar, so reliever it is.

for a reliever you mainly search for 2 things: good K-rate and chance for saves in case the regular closer is not available because of injury, overwork or suckiness. Gregerson closed for Team USA in the WBC, he closed in the past, so if anything happens to Giles he will close for Houston. and he will be good at it. until then he will provide me with more K's than IP's and solid ratios.

22.11 Hunter Stickland, RP, SF

after ignoring relievers for over 10 rounds I take 2 in succession and maybe extend that streak to 3 with my next pick.

as with my previous pick I am targeting a closer in the waiting. He is a Melancon injury away from being the closer. It is also expected that the Giants will win a lot of games, which will result in a lot of save opportunities. on the off days of Melancon the Giants will hopefully turn to Strickland.

23.06 Kevin Siegrist, RP, STL

3rd reliever and closer candidate in a row. There were not many options available that are the #2 choice for saves on their team. it helps that he strikes out more than 1 batter per inning and that his percentages should not be as questionable as those of others at this point.

I now have 5 starters and 2 closers and 3 setup man as my pitching staff. 5x200 + 5x75 = 1375 IP. right on target. I guess I am finished and will turn to hitting with my last 2 picks.

24.11 Yan Gomes, C, CLE

at the start of the draft I decided that I will pass on catcher as long as possible. whether that is the last round or the round before does not matter as long as it is in round 20+.

the problem I have with catchers is that most of them see probably 120-130 games a year. thats 20% less than other position players. In addition to that the stats of most catchers after the top 5 are bad. They are on the replacement player level, were the playing at a different position.

my planned strategy this year is to play matchups with my catcher slot to maximize the games played and hopefully also the counting stats of R and RBI. I don't care about SB for a catcher. The only problem I see here is that I am living in Europe, so at the time a lot of lineups are posted, knowing which catchers are playing that day, is at a time I am usually not awake anymore. I need to rely on some twitter accounts of local correspondents to see if my preferred options for the day are indeed playing. what makes matters worse are these early games and that pickups for 7pm games can't be done at 6pm when there was a single 2pm game earlier that day. So I need to find metrics of the likelihood that a catcher is starting that day. this looks like a lot of trouble and I may abandon my strategy after a few weeks. hopefully not because of the timing constraints, but because I found a player that performs like Gary Sanchez, who ideally plays DH on days he is not catching. I guess its time to wake up and stop dreaming.

25.06 Nick Markakis, ATL, OF

with JD Martinez injured and Kris Bryant having 3B eligibility I only have Renfroe and Judge (starting job not yet settled) to back them up. I felt the need for another OF if there would be one near the top of draftable players.

my top OF was Markakis. he has an excellent OBP and a bad SLG. There is some talk that he might trade in some AVG for some power which would translate into a slightly higher SLG. I'll take that.

in the end I would feel comfortable inserting him into my lineup if JD is still out, Judge the backup and one of my others is sitting out a game.
170mailedfoot
      ID: 531322718
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 07:23 		22.12 Cameron Maybin, OF, LAA
Selected Maybin to provide OF depth; he posted a .383/.418 line last year which was boosted by a .383 BABIP, so some regression is to be expected. But he also swiped 15 bags in 94 games; I look for him to contribute to my SB total. He’s slated to be the everyday LF for the Angels so should get plenty of at bats if he can stay healthy and productive.

23.05 Chris Devenski, RP, HOU
Devenski is a long relief/spot starter who put up some interesting numbers last year over 108 innings: 8.64 K/9, 2.34 FIP, and 0.91 whip. He was arguably pitching about as well as anyone over the second half of the year. I am not really sure how much impact a guy like this can have on a fantasy team but am thinking if he keeps pitching like this, he will get innings somewhere.

24.12 Scott Schebler, OF, CIN
More OF/UTIL depth; Schebler hit .330/.432 last year and has the potential to take over the RF job in Cincinnati. This is basically a round 24, young guy upside play.

25.05 Jed Lowrie, 2B, OAK
Welcome aboard, Jed! You get to round out my MI crew and can hang around as long as you stay healthy and keep hitting. Based on my past experience with you, it will probably only be a matter of days.
171Fosten
      ID: 4097314
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 09:33 		6.15 Jeurys Familia, RP, NYM
aka. “Good Team, Good SP = Many Saves” or my dad calls him “The Big Guy”. Last round, I took Rendon with only 3 closers total off the board, and then another 10 closers went before my next pick. Brutal. I was targeting Belt. I had cold sweats over Schwarber. I had visions of pairing Allen/Miller, just as jdrenbarger did, congrats. None of that worked out. Betting Familia’s suspension is short, and this is a lock for 40 saves behind the best pitching staff in baseball.

7.02 Aledmys Diaz, SS, STL
aka. “SS sooooo weak, I can’t stand it” Gerrit Cole, how can I pass on thee? Last year, I took Seager/Correa and it taught me the importance of SS in a MI league. I’ve learned my lesson, and I’ll teach it to you too! Aledmys wasn’t on my many people’s radar before last season, and now coming off a .879 OPS season, this year he’s somehow undervalued again. Shucks, he’s not much different than them fancy first-round SS. Cardinals are rarely wrong about talent. Time to invest.

8.15 David Price, SP, BOS
aka. "Catch the falling prices!” After Price’s injury, nobody wanted him, and to tell you the truth, neither did I. Was really hoping somebody would draft Price, so I wouldn’t have to. Take my wife, please! Wanted to go Watson here, also looked at Zobrist, and SZ confirmed my horror by taking both with the next 2 picks. But when a top 10 SP falls to 127 overall, I just can’t say no. Dear David, please get plenty of rest, you services are NOT needed on my fantasy team during April, take your time and relax, an apple a day...

9.02 Yasmani Grandal, C, LAD
aka. “OBP catcher? I didn’t know they made those anymore!” When holt took Contreras/Benintendi, that completely changed my draft plans, kudos. The draft grid looks like a chess board, I’m threading needles and walking tightropes, ready to maneuver battleships at Will(son). Grandal/Gattis represented a 0.40 OPS gap over the next catchers. Looked at all the OF still available, and couldn’t see the benefit. UPDATE: However, that was before 9 OF went in a row! Jeez, you guys are gluttons for punishment. I didn’t even draft an OF, and I feel like I started a trend. That tightrope just got a little thinner.

10.15 Delin Betances, RP, NYY
aka. “If I’m not a closer, then trade me.” After that arbitration mess, I own Betances most everywhere this year, riding the wave of hope that he’s traded. The Yankees are looking to cash in relievers for prospects, and this is the big piece they’ll be shopping. After posting a 1.45 ERA during his first two years in the league, Betances followed that up with a 1.78 FIP last season. Delin’s bags are packed, and he's ready to go. He hates to wake you up to say goodbye.
172Fosten
      ID: 4097314
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 10:48 		11.02 Steven Matz, SP, NYM
aka. “Park Place. Better than Ezra (Noah).”
Syndergaard/Matz! Now I can start building hotels.
Here’s a picture of my 11th round pick holding a shark.


12.15 Julio Urias, SP, LAD
aka. “Clearly, I’m paying for elite innings.” The consensus valuation is all over the place on Urias this year. With the innings limit, some think his ranking is way too high. So you're telling me, I only get 140 innings of sub 3 ERA from the best prospect in baseball? What?! Oh hell no! Hold up. Huh?? Oh okay. On a per-inning basis, he’s the 3rd most valuable SP behind Syndergaard and Matz. Doesn’t eat sandwiches. Doesn’t punch sharks. Does enjoy listening to heavy metal Christmas music. These are my pitchers, and you should be very much afraid.

13.02 Raisel Iglesias, CIN
aka. “Well if you’re just going to limp in, I’m going to Raise’l.” Most people think this Cincy situation is closer-by-committee, but I think its one of them new-fangled saber-bullpens. So I’m not running away from it, I’m running towards it! Forecasting 100 innings apiece for Iglesias and Lorenzen. Watched Iglesias hang 3 inning donuts too many times last year not to invest. He’s basically Andrew Miller, 6 rounds later. By pairing Iglesias with Urias, this Frankenpitcher, of my own creation, should provide 250 ip, 9.5 K/9, and a sub 3 ERA in the 12th/13th round. I typed that, you read that.

14.15 Hector Neris, RP, PHI
aka. “Double mint gum. See 15.02” After the wild closer run from a few days ago, I feel like everybody just went to sleep on RP. Beuller? Beuller? Both Neris/Jeanmar were still available at the end of this round and I couldn’t believe my salivating eyes. That's how much I was salivating! When doubling up, end-tier bubble grabs provide extra coins and bonus time. By drafting on the turn, I can easily handcuff this developing situation. I would have taken Neris anyway, but now I just feel sleazy about this. Someone please stop me.

15.02 Jeanmar Gomez, RP, PHI
aka. “Two for a dollar. See 14.15." Look what I found! Would never have considered drafting Jeanmar in a million years, had I not drafted Neris the pick before. Very unhappy about wasting a pick. However, I am very happy to handcuff Filthy Philly saves this late, after all the closers were off the board. If Jeanmar is still on my team by the ASB, something went very very wrong. Call for HELP.
173mmikulka
      ID: 57791610
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 10:51 		23.07 Trevor Plouffe - 3B, OAK

I wanted a backup for Longoria, and had been looking at Prado and Plouffe for a few rounds. I expected to end up with Prado because of his injury, but he was taken a few picks ahead of mine.

Hopefully Plouffe's 2017 will be more like his 2014-2015 than his 2016. It's a contract year, and the As generally do a good job getting the most out of their players.

Improvement or not, he has a fairly stable floor. It would surprising if his OPS reached .750, but it would be even more surprising if it dropped below .720. He'll be a servicable fill-in and he won't kill my team if I need to start him consistently: that's all I'm looking for out of this pick.

174mmikulka
      ID: 57791610
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 11:02 		24.10 Jaime Garcia - SP, ATL

I considered taking Drew Storen to see if he ends up getting the first few saves of the year with Raisel Iglesias potentially still out, then spot starting pitchers with this slot until one sticks.

I decided that I liked Jaime Garcia's potential enough to give him a chance instead. His career ERA of 3.57 is only available this late because of he has been so injury-plagued. He reached 170 IP last year and is healthy at the moment, so I'll give him a chance and see how long he can stay productive and off the DL.

175Uptown @work
      ID: 481322917
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 11:20 		25.10 Steven Souza Jr, OF, TB

Power source potential with regular playing time. Nothing much else to say about him.
176mmikulka
      ID: 57791610
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 11:35 		25.07 Drew Storen - RP, CIN

Like youngroman, I will be streaming catchers, which has been my plan ever since Lucroy was drafted.

I'm not sure why I hadn't thought to do it before this year: it solves the problem of playing time, and with 14+ options most days, there are usually plenty of matchup advantages to choose from.

It also creates a permanent free slot for me to be creative with. Maybe I want to spot-start a pitcher or middle infielder or add a RP to see how a volatile closer situation plays out: I can just go without a starting catcher for a day or two. I can roster other players for 16 days over the course of the season and still have 162 games started from my C position.

With that in mind, there was no good reason for me to draft a catcher at all, so I took Storen. Iglesias seems like he'll probably be ready for the beginning of the season, but it's no sure thing, and the assumption that he'll get the lion's share of the saves may be wishful thinking. He may not even be the top choice.

Storen has looked awful in spring training, but it's worth giving him a shot and seeing what his role is: 1/3 of the saves would have plenty of value. If Iglesias is healthy and gets the first few saves, then I'll drop Storen and begin streaming my catchers.
177Dave R
      ID: 530392313
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 12:07 		Matt Strahm RP Kan

Last pick. Although mentioned as a possible starter, Matt will start the season in the bullpen for the Royals. I'm OK with that, and if he's ever moved in the starting rotation, I'm OK with that also

I'm also OK with numbers along the lines of what he produced last year. After being called up at the end of July, he posted an ERA of 1.23 and WHIP of 1.09 and struck out 30 batters in only 22 innings, a 12.3K/9 average.

I'm sure I could have done worse.
179Fosten
      ID: 4097314
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 13:18 		16.15 Manuel Margot, OF, SDG
aka. “Is Round 16 too early to take a 2nd outfielder?” Hello, I am a value pick, seeking a breakout season for friendship or possibly something more. Of course everyone looks at my sensuous 35 steals, but there’s also some shy raw power here that may translate eventually. You may be tempted to go with another San Diego outfielder, and that's not a bad idea, because Renfroe will probably have the better season, but I am the more valuable fantasy player overall. Why not take us both? When you wait this long for outfielders, steals aren’t ever a need, they're an inevitability. Are we a match?

17.02 Steve Pearce, 1B, TOR
aka. “I can’t believe I’m drafting Steve Pearce.” Hear me out. With a full time job in Toronto’s outfield, this OPS monster could be chomping past 500 AB. Sure, I could wait another couple rounds for Moreland or Mauer, but even in a real life platoon, Pearce is useful as a fantasy platoon. With so many OF already taken, I have an inside straight draw that Renfroe makes it back to me. If not, I won’t be heartbroken, because Pearce will be eligible to drop fly balls in the outfield soon enough. Let's say maybe he finds some 2B eligibility and rates like Dan Murphy. Let's just say that, and then let's stop talking, for good.

18.15 Orlando Arcia, SS, MIN
aka. “I think I can get steals later.” I don't always like my job, certainly, there are times when it is not fun. I'm strictly here on business to acquire all the SS that are left. This was a premeditated stack. While Seager/Correa was nice last year, what I quickly discovered was the value isn’t in the top tier, the value is going 2-3 deep at the position. I’m not betting on a Arcia breakout, I’m simply drafting the position dry. Had Renfroe fallen another 4 picks, it would have been hard for me to pass. So when you're sifting through MI free agents later in the season, blame youngroman, and then ask him to trade me Syndergaard in g20. Thanks.

19.02 Alcides Escobar, SS, KC
aka. “SS and steals, at bulk prices. After Alcides, beware of dragons!" We had a talk. I said, "Look, I don't want nuthin' fancy. I won’t be playing an outfielder at utility, so the team is doubling down, twice, on both steals and SS, which is a Maths quadruple, or a Tetris. All I need you to do is post career average projections." He said, "Fine by me, I'm just here to clock in and clock out." Alcides seems to get better with age, should be consistent, and infield steals are getting thin. Gotta catch ‘em all!

20.15 Matt Bush, RP, TEX
aka. “Closer by June” I don’t think Sam Dyson’s grasp on the job is as firm as people think. Bush profiles similar to the other elite ERA pitchers I own, and should be an important fantasy piece all season, regardless of whether or not he captures saves. Probably should have went Lorenzen here, and handcuffed Cincy like I handcuffed Philly, but as a former #1 draft pick Bush draws a lot of fantasy interest. Did I mention that he was drafted 13 years ago, as a high school SS, as a non-consensus #1 in a weak draft class, because Padres owner John Moore was unwilling to pay large signing bonuses to the top Scott Boras clients? I probably shouldn't mention that.
180jdrenbarger
      Dude
      ID: 04035768
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 13:43 		20.14 Moss, Brandon - KAN – 1B

12 hitters and seven pitchers at this point, and I’m looking to fill at least three of my bench slots with hitters in order to come as close to the GP maximums as I can; ideally, on this turn, a K/IP and solid ratios reliever with at least a shot at saves at some point and a decent bat to fill in as needed. Lorenzen and Bush were at the top of my reliever queue and Moss, with dual 1B/OF eligibility, was the only hitter that stuck out to me ... thinking at least one of the two relievers would survive the four picks until my next one, I grabbed Moss.

He’s nothing special, but he’s solid for this point in the draft and he should easily exceed 400 AB as KC’s primary DH. Three year average line of 461 AB/61/69/2/.755 OPS (.314/.441), and a spike last year vs RHP of a .828 OPS (albeit a barely .300 OBP). If he hits RHP with a .500+ SLG again this year, he’ll make a nice spot play at either CI or OF.

21.03 Dull, Ryan - OAK – RP

Both Lorenzen and Bush go within the four picks preceding this one, leaving Dull at the top of my queue (with Gregerson and Dayton immediately following, and they both go within the following four picks). Oakland’s best reliever a year ago (74.1 IP/73 K/5 W/3 S/2.42/0.87/.557 OPS against), he’s admittedly a longshot for saves ... that said, the end of Oakland’s bullpen is mostly a collection of lesser arms (albeit with closing experience), and I don’t think it’s inconceivable that he’ll get a shot at some point. If he doesn’t, a stat line close to last year’s will be plenty good enough for me.

22.14 Davies, Zach - MIL – SP

Again looking for a hitter and a pitcher on this turn, with a 3B-eligible and my fifth SP my targets. Prado was my clear preference, given the remaining choices at 3B, and Davies was my clear pitching preference. I hoped that Prado’s WBC injury and being on the DL to start the season would further depress his perceived value, and accordingly took Davies.

Only 24, he put up a 135 K/11 W/3.97/1.25 line over 163.1 IP in his first full year in the majors and 3.48/1.17 over his last 20 starts. ESPN’s 2017 projection of 157 K/11 W/3.64/1.19 is frankly better than almost anyone else’s, but he’s got some upside and will be a great value if he pitches to it. Generally going about 3 (adjusted) rounds earlier in other drafts, and went in rounds 18/19/22 in the three other RIBC drafts.

23.03 Prado, Martin - MIA – 3B

Expressly looking for a 3B here to back up Solarte and free up Baez to mostly fill MI positions. Principally considered Prado/Plouffe/Duffy/(undrafted), with Prado’s track record of consistency and superior OBP the primary selling points. His exceptional performance against LHP (three year average OPS of .971 (.433/.538)) sealed it – he’s another spot-start candidate to help address the relatively poor OBP and SLG projected for my team as a whole. Can’t say that I’d have taken Plouffe instead, had I known they’re now suspecting Prado will miss the first month of the season ... but I can’t say I wouldn’t have, either.

24.14 Buchter, Ryan - SDG – RP

A purely speculative handcuff of my second closer (of only two); while the conventional wisdom is that Capps replaces Maurer in SDG if Maurer falters (and maybe even if he doesn’t), I’m not completely buying that Capps will be all the way back from Tommy John surgery this year and, if he proves not to be, I believe Buchter is the other guy to have in this bullpen. 78 K/3 W/1 S/2.86/1.03 in 67 IP last year – his first full season in the majors. If he puts up those numbers again, he’ll be a solid part of my rotation even if he never gets a shot at the closer’s role.

25.03 Castillo, Welington - BAL – C

I’ve intended to take a second catcher ever since I drafted Vogt and his .603 OPS vs LHP over the past three years. Considered three others, all still undrafted, and pretty quickly settled on Castillo. Should see roughly 400 AB over the course of the season, historically very good against LHP (.836 OPS over the past three years), and even better against RHP than Vogt is against LHP (.688 OPS, again over the past three years). With the two of them, I should be able to come pretty close to the GP max at catcher, and without too many days of a sub-.700 OPS bat in the lineup at catcher.
181Seattle Zen
      ID: 301361318
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 14:32 		24.16.384 Span, Denard - SF - OF

I was going to shake my fist at ksoze for taking Ryu because holt was upset at this, which caused him to take Michael Saunders, who I really coveted. But Uptown said that he would have taken Saunders, so I guess I should have taken him at 23.01 if I really wanted him.

I like Denard Span, he is one of many former Twin outfielders who were traded away for a few non-magical beans. Baseball Prospectus likes him to have a +740 OPS with 20 steals and over 70 runs for the Giants. I will not shake a stick at that. You know, Saunders is bound to get hurt... I'm okay with this turn of events. Had Fosten taken Span, I would have gone with beard guy Werth.

25.01.385 Harris, Will - HOU - RP

There may be a second-in-line closer out there, a handcuff not taken yet, but not really any obvious ones, so I went with a guy with a projected 9.5K/9 and below 3 ERA. If he continues to be a solid contributor to ratios and K/9, he can stay. If a new guy starts the season lights out and becomes the new closer in waiting on some team, Harris will understand why I'm kicking him to the curb. Would have taken Rondon had Guru not.
182kdl212
      ID: 43240617
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 18:38 		23.13 Kolten Wong, 2B, STL
This guy simply isn't as good as he thinks he is. And he isn't helping his cause by saying he'd prefer to be traded than to be platooned. And what kind of nonsense is that, anyway. If I had the chance to work only 4 days out of 7, and get full salary, I'd take it right away. I made this pick because I thought Wong had more potential trade value if he starts off hot than anyone else I could see. And I was feeling light on stolen bases.

24.04 Delino Deshields, OF, TEX
This guy was super-hyped last year (he went in the 11th round of the RIBC draft). After a solid spring with a ton of walks and stolen bases, there's talk of him starting in left field and leading off for the Rangers. If he sticks, I'm looking at 80 runs and 30 stolen bases with an OBP around .333 from round 24! This was the kind of upside pick this creaky-old team needed.

25.13 Koji Uehara, RP, CHC
No idea who is next in line in Chicago when Wade Davis's arm explodes. Folks have already drafted Edwards and Rondon. But I simply couldn't pass up one last 40+ year-old for this team. If I lucked into 25 saves, spectacular. If I end up with 9k/9 and a WHiP of 1.00 over 50 innings with a few wins thrown in, that's fine too.
183Boozer
      ID: 971677
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 19:59 		19.14 Santiago Casilla RP, Oak

Looked like a pretty good plan, a guy who could have save chances drop in his lap. Had 31 saves last year, and on a team thats going to be "fluid" at closer.

Looking at relief pitchers now for the next few picks anyway.

Then they started him today and he got lit up like a christmas tree, got one guy out before the hook. So he has that going for him now.
184Boozer
      ID: 971677
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 20:20 		20.03 Brandon Phillips, 2B, Atl

Had to have another MI if Im going to try to hold Moncata.
if he stays healthy and gets the AB's, he's mildly productive, and doesnt really hurt, he'll have a drop off if he bats late in the order

And when super-rookie comes up I wont feel bad about dumping him

185Boozer
      ID: 971677
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 20:48 		25.14 Jesus Aguilar 1B Milw

Where did this guy come from? 6-3 250lb. Hit 7 homers this spring, batting .466, made the roster, hasnt really had a shot in the majors yet.

Going to back up at 1B but worth the 25th pick imo. I needed a corner guy with this pick anyway
186ksoze
      ID: 7141224
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 20:54 		21.15 - Dietrich, Derek - 2B - MIA

In 600 AB's over the last two season's he has an .800 OPS; Prado will start the season on the DL so Dietrich should be playing 3B and add that corner IF eligibility to 2B a couple of weeks into the season. And once Prado returns maybe Gordon will get popped for PED's again to help buy DD more playing time... who knows what can happen! I had a few other 2B/SS types queued up, Lowrie was the only one drafted in the end.

22.02 - Morrison, Logan - 1B - TB

I had Zimmerman and Reynolds queued up here too as I planned to take my 1B backup with this pick. I had Morrison first mainly due to Zimmerman's seemingly career-long injury and recent lack of production history, and the assumption that Reynolds will only get a little bit of starting time before Desmond returns. I don't frankly expect much from LoMo, if I have to rely on him for anymore than spot starts I'm in trouble. But... he might lead off for the Rays, and while his OBP will be horrible for a 1B he might not blow chunks in SLG. Talk about selling myself on a player...

23.15 - Ryu, Hyun-Jin - SP - LAD

Wanted one more SP to ensure I approach the innings limit with the ability to spot start some as necessary. Was considering a few, none of whom ended up being drafted, when it was announced that Ryu had earned the 4th spot in the Dodgers rotation and would NOT begin the year on the DL, so I quickly queued him up first. He put up 3.38/1.19 in 2015, if he stays healthy there's no reason for me to believe that he can't be somewhere close to that in his age 30 season pitching in Dodger stadium; he could be a steal at the 367th pick of the draft.

24.02 - Soo Kim, Hyun - OF - Balt

He ought to be leading off for the O's as his OBP is in the high 3's. Of course, they'll likely hit him in the bottom third of their order vs. righties. If he gets 400 AB's with an .800 OPS, it's great value in round 24, maybe even with 120 + runs/RBI. If he's producing and the O's move him up in the lineup, even better. I'd assumed Holt might take one OF on the turn so I had Markakis ready to go as my back up.

25.15 - Soria, Joakim - RP - KC

Meh. I looked through the remaining RP's for potential "hold your breath and hope something happens to the closer" saves and saw Soria and his lousy 2016 numbers was still available. It appears he's second in line for KC. I likely will bench him initially and keep him there unless he reverts to pre-2016 form, or takes over the closer role. Had another, obviously undrafted, RP in mind in case Soria went before my last pick.





187Boozer
      ID: 971677
      Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 21:02 		21.14 Tyler Thornburg RP Bos

looked like a reasonably safe set up guy to pick in the late rounds. But the next day he was shut down

so he wont be a Boozer very long
188holt
      ID: 57232523
      Thu, Mar 30, 2017, 02:01 		23.16 Saunders, Michael OF PHI

Was set to take Ryu here but no dice.

.338/.478 last season is enough to make Saunders draftable in rd 23. Will probably hit 5th in the order as the Phillies' RF. It seemed silly to not draft him.


24.01 Ramos, Wilson C TAM

I think Ramos will be back in May sometime. Maybe the option to DH will allow him to come back earlier than later. The projections seem to be giving a lot of weight to prior seasons and none to his 2016 season. I had Ramos last year and had zero complaints. I don't know if I'll actually keep him rostered long or not.


25.16 Zimmerman, Ryan 1B WAS

Shot in the dark. There are reasons to believe Zimmerman might have an improved 2017. Conditioning, elevating the ball, possibly not going to the DL. He's only 32, so maybe he can turn it around. I thought he was more like 42, but I see he was only 20 yrs old in his rookie season.
Hmm.
189Bmd
      ID: 825715
      Thu, Mar 30, 2017, 16:42 		23.08 Mark Reynolds, 1B, COL

Not too often you draft a short term rental but that's what Reynolds is. He should receive playing time to start the season but will get pushed to a reserve role when the Rockies get healthy. He might be a spot starter for me even
on that rental period. Not great but can be above average at Coors.

24.09 Matt Adams, 1B, STL

A much slimmer Adams has looked great so far this spring. Will be without a starting position but has started playing in the outfield so might get a few more starts that way. Round 24 guys almost always get dropped at some point. Don't see that changing with Adams.

25.08 Trevor Rosenthal, RP, STL

Late round flier. Didn't put much time into this pick. Rosenthal has been elite and his stuff appears to still be there. His role has changed since he was the closer. I don't see him thriving as a MR so its unlikely he lasts a week on my team
190twilson
      ID: 2221181
      Thu, Mar 30, 2017, 18:43 		10.13 Dansby Swanson, SS, ATL

I thought I might get lucky and have Tulowitzski make it back to me, but a cascade of picks meant that mikulka took him a few picks shy of here. I was right about the OF run, though, which makes my Broxton pick a bit more justifiable.

I still need a shortstop and the next tier down of Brandon Crawford or Dansby Swanson may make sense. Neither one is very exciting, but they should be serviceable. Crawford is a known quantity while Swanson is a youngster entering his first full major season. 5-10 steals with a decent OBP and SLG are my expectation for both.

Rick Porcello is the big dropper by RIBC ADP. There are many reasons to expect his production to drop in his Cy Young follow-up, but his excellent control, team, and healthy past give him a high floor. At this point, he’s my top pitcher.

The closers all have their warts. Jim Johnson is the guy in Atlanta, but that strikeout rate is going to regress significantly. I really don’t like rostering relievers who hurt the rate stats, and there’s a meaningful chance he will qualify. That in turn creates role risk.

Byron Buxton is a dropper compared to external ADP, though not RIBC. As the former top prospect in baseball and still only 23 years old, the ceiling is huge, and he had a great September. Still, I see so many flaws in his game, many of which remained present in that huge September. I don’t think I’m interested here, and I don’t see any other outfielders worth taking in lieu of other needs.

Finally, I could fill my CI with a second third baseman. Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos have both displayed skill development in the past couple years obscured by injury woes. There is good reason to think that both will exceed their projections. As 3B, I think they offer good value here, but I’m less sure it’s there as my CI.

SS is just getting so thin. Even though I missed on Tulo, I think I have to take one of Crawford and Swanson now. I highly doubt either will be there come pick 189. It was a coin flip between the two. Crawford is a better hitter at this point in time, but Swanson is supposedly hitting second for the Braves. That would give me a little bit of exposure to Freddie Freeman, who I like this year with the new stadium in Atlanta. That’s the pick.

11.04 Marcus Stroman, SP, TOR

I lost Porcello on the turn after I had managed to sell myself on him in the interim, so I went back to the board for another look. Still wasn’t into the closers, but Moustakas remained on the table. I did additional research on a whole bunch of SP to figure out if anyone was worth a pick.

Industry opinion leaned toward Marcus Stroman, while Aaron Nola also drew my eye. Nola was cruising along at the start of 2016 before a crash that was very likely related to elbow issues. He appears to be healthy now, which gives him SP1 potential due to his contact management, command, and curveball. I don’t think Stroman has the same ceiling, but he isn’t devoid of upside. He got more strikeouts and popups as the season went along while maintaining his league-leading GB%. Those grounders and his ability to hit 200 IP also give him a pretty solid floor.

NFBC ADP provided reason to believe that Nola might make it through the long turn, but RIBC ADP (led by Judy with pick 52 in AAA ESPN) suggested otherwise. Everybody has their own pitching preferences at this point, so nothing can be taken for granted in terms of availability.

I made the call to pass on CI and go with my second pitcher. I wanted to take Nola, but ultimately defaulted to industry consensus with Stroman. That’ll presumably give me two pitching anchors before I begin to take my shots on high fliers later on.
191twilson
      ID: 2221181
      Thu, Mar 30, 2017, 20:31 		22.13 Charlie Morton, SP, HOU

I want to finish off with RP/RP/SP/hitter, in some order. I don’t see any cliffs remaining at those positions, so I’m going to organize the picks by upside and likelihood of any targets being taken by others.

There are a few starters I like, some of which are being taken in other RIBC drafts and others that are not. If I go for one now, I will decide between Charlie Morton and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Morton is a guy I drafted back in 2014 after he gave me 50 solid IP the year before. That’s really the last time he was fantasy relevant, as struggles with injury and lefties have limited his results. With that said, he’s shown signs in the last two spring trainings that he may have found a way to add a couple MPH to his fastball at the age of 32. This adds strikeout upside to his heavy groundball profile.

Ryu was also really good back in 2013 and 2014, much better than Charlie Morton ever has been. He’s been dealing with major shoulder issues ever since, going under the knife more than once. It’s extremely difficult for pitchers to come back from injuries to the pitching shoulder, with Brandon Webb as the poster child. I’d really like to see Ryu successfully return to prominence, but I always take a “wait and see” stance until proven otherwise. The price is cheap, so I’m tempted to give it a go.

[undrafted] is an excellent contact manager in a less than ideal environment. I’d be comfortable going with him as my final SP if I wait until my final pair of picks to fill the slot.

I’ll talk about RP in my 23.04 rationale. I have a couple outfielders in mind on the hitting side, neither of which is all that likely to be taken. Thus, in the absence of other desires, I am taking a starter. Ryu’s ceiling is higher, and writing this rationale now I am wishing I had gone that direction, but something about Morton enticed me into going with him.

23.04 Felipe Rivero, RP, PIT

After taking Morton at 22.13, I’m down to RP/RP/hitter on my wish list. I’m going to take a reliever here and leave one of each for my final pair.

One guy I’ve been looking at for a couple rounds is Felipe Rivero. His ratios last year were subpar for the bullpen, but I think he pitched better than they show. He increased his ability to draw swinging strikes, but sacrificed a little control at the same time. If he can cut down on the walks a bit, which I think is quite possible, he’ll be a top RP arm. He also profiles as a much more traditional closer than the incumbent Watson. Watson is a very good pitcher who significantly limits hard contact, but he’s 31 and only has 20 career saves to his credit. Pirates management has said all the right things so far, but I can see Watson losing his job relatively quickly if his poor spring performance carries over into April. I should also note the risk of Daniel Hudson getting first shot as closer if that scenario plays out.

Rivero is fairly likely to go undrafted if I don’t take him, so I can probably wait if I see another RP of interest. Hector Rondon may be just the guy. Even in a down season last year, he kept his WHIP below 1.00. It’s unlikely he’ll give up as many homers again, so his ERA should return to the mid 2s with a strikeout per IP. Wade Davis is another closer struggling in the spring, though I give Carl Edwards a better shot at promotion than Rondon.

I don’t really think Rondon will be in the save mix in April, so I’d rather just take Rivero now and worry about finding another reliever to draft later.

24.13 Darren O’Day, RP, BAL

My pitching squad could use one more infusion of quality IP before the draft is done, so I’d like to take a RP here. The ideal pick would give me Ks, solid ratios, and an outside shot at some saves. I looked at a bunch of names but wasn’t able to find all three in the same package. Thus, I am forced to choose two of the three qualities. I don’t like rostering players whose talent I don’t believe in if I can help it, so I’m just going to suck it up and take the best pitcher I can find, saves be damned.

My favorite RIBC pitcher of all time, Koji Uehara, is one possibility. His WHIP and K rate are still top tier, but age has begun to catch up with him just a little. He’s about to turn 42, so it’s understandable! I think there are three guys in the Cubs pen more likely to close, but it’s not completely impossible that he can snag a few as the year goes along.

I can also go with Darren O’Day, another veteran of past twilson squads. His performance declined more last year than Uehara, but injuries are a likely culprit. He’s looking very strong in spring training. More than a handful of saves are out of the question, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have value as roster glue.

I think O’Day is the most likely remaining pitcher to pitch to a sub-2 ERA and sub-1 WHIP, so he’s my guy.

25.04 Ben Revere, OF, PHI

I wanted another hitter here to fill out my roster. It’s always such a struggle to maintain a full lineup in RIBC given the short bench, so I wanted a 3/1 split between offense and pitching. I would have preferred a MI here all else being equal, but outfield offers the best potential for a difference maker. I already have six players on the roster that qualify at OF plus a DH beyond that, so there’s no reason to take an everyday guy with a limited ceiling.

I have two names in mind, Ben Revere and [undrafted]. Revere is a year removed from back-to-back $15 seasons. He has absolutely no power, but does a good job of getting on base (2016 excluded) and stealing when the opportunity presents itself. I like his chance to provide me with cheap steals as long as he gets the playing time. He’s currently behind Cameron Maybin in the Angels pecking order but has outperformed Maybin in spring training.

[undrafted] was suggested by my father, who saw him hit in spring training and came away impressed. He’s definitely an off-the-radar name, and the playing time isn’t there as of yet, but I’m definitely going to keep an eye on him as the season gets going.

At this point, my team is relying on Hernan Perez to play well and often enough to stay afloat in SB, so it makes sense to take another stab at the category with my final pick.
192twilson
      ID: 2221181
      Thu, Mar 30, 2017, 21:10 		20.13 Ivan Nova, SP, PIT

We’re getting into the late rounds now. Time to look at what I want my final roster to look like. I still need a few pitchers to fill out my starting lineup, but that was planned. I really want a backup 1B to maximize ABs out of my 1B and CI slots, and I have a few viable options. A backup shortstop would be perfect, but nothing is left. Another 2B would be good, but the pickings are slim there too. I’ll take at least one more hitter beyond the 1B if just for sheer volume. Pitching will most likely be a split of two starters and two relievers.

There are three veteran 1B on the board I wouldn’t mind owning: Mitch Moreland, Brandon Moss, and Joe Mauer. Moreland is a clear dropper by RIBC ADP. Moss should go around now, and Mauer could drop a little further. I like Mauer best. His batted ball profile was better than his results, and he managed to up his walk rate beyond its already strong level. Moreland is a known quantity moving to a top offense, but he is limited to a platoon role. Moss is also pretty easy to project. Not quite as good a hitter as Moreland, but should play more often.

I failed to sell myself on any of the available relievers as a good saves sleeper, so I passed there. I can see a few starters I wouldn’t mind owning, but nobody is leaping off the page. Ivan Nova just stopped walking people after his midseason trade to Pittsburgh, and he’s kept it up thus far in the spring. Charlie Morton has suddenly added velocity to his heavy sinker profile. Eduardo Rodriguez is a great contact manager and has a great pedigree, but the risk of blowups is quite real.

Honestly, I was out of the house for this pair of picks, so I failed to fully remind myself about the contact management aspect at the time. If I had, he would’ve been the pick. As it was, Nova offered enough intrigue as a low WHIP guy to justify a pick. I figured I would grab Mauer on the flip side to complete the turn.

21.04 Mitch Moreland, 1B, BOS

Should’ve taken Mauer at 20.13! I do like him for a rebound year. Moss was taken, too, but I prefer Moreland to him. Moreland is in Boston now after a number of years with the Rangers. His ratios aren’t anything special while still being plenty adequate, and he’s limited to the strong side of a platoon, but he’s currently penciled into the 5 hole in the Red Sox lineup on days when they face righties. That would give him a good opportunity to rack up healthy R/RBI numbers in a strong offensive environment. This was probably my easiest pick of the draft.
193twilson
      ID: 2221181
      Thu, Mar 30, 2017, 21:45 		18.13 Howie Kendrick, 2B/OF, PHI

After passing on Schimpf last turn, I have to take a MI before absolutely everyone is gone. As expected, Howie Kendrick is still there. Brandon Phillips dropped, too, which I didn’t quite anticipate. Kendrick was basically the same player last year as he has been for years, but the babip gods failed to smile in his direction. His first half was godawful; I should know, as I owned him! The one good thing he did was boost his walk rate, which I hope he carries over as he transitions to Philadelphia. I do see some risk that he could lose his job to younger players if he slumps or the team falls out of contention.

Brandon Phillips is also very consistent. Similar OBP/SLG to Kendrick with some extra SBs thrown in for good measure. I do see some signs of decline in his batted ball profile which gives me a bit of concern.

ADP favors Phillips, but I think I would prefer to own Kendrick despite the lower SB ceiling. I just believe in him more.

As a fun aside, Kendrick is the first hitter and second player (after Koji Uehara) I’ve drafted in three RIBC drafts. Both of the other picks were 12th rounders, so I’m getting a discount on my ownership this year.

19.04 Hernan Perez, 3B/OF, MIL

The mini-run of SS on the short side of the turn basically ensured that I’m not going to be drafting a second SS. I could go in a lot of directions here. I need a CI, and I shouldn’t wait too much longer to fill that slot. If not now, then I will definitely take one next turn. 1B offers Mitch Moreland, Brandon Moss, and Joe Mauer. I think it very likely that at least one will survive to 20.13.

At 3B, I could speculate on Pablo Sandoval to be what I was hoping back in 2015 when he joined the Red Sox, but it’s definitely a “believe when I see it” situation. I’m not buying. He has the opportunity because Travis Shaw headed west to Milwaukee where he should play every day. He was okay in 2016, but I’m not particularly excited as he moves to a lesser park and lineup. Also on the Brewers is Hernan Perez, who came out of absolutely nowhere to steal 34 bases with respectable peripherals. I have a lot of concerns about his ability to both produce and get playing time. I never would’ve taken him at his ADP, but he’s dropped quite a ways and might be worth the risk at this point.

I could also take a shot at finding a closer. I’ve had Sean Doolittle sitting in my queue for a round or two. Ryan Madson is not yet set as the closer, and Doolittle has done nothing but perform for his entire career when healthy.

Finally, I gave Jason Heyward a long look. I was so disappointed last year when I missed him by a pick at 4.10, and here he is a year later available in the 19th round. He’s so talented, but something just seems broken with his approach. I read an article that suggested he could get on track by the all-star break, and that was an optimistic take! As much as I want to, I just don’t see it happening for Heyward this year.

It came down to Perez vs. Doolittle. I sided with hitter over pitcher, SBs over saves.
195twilson
      ID: 2221181
      Fri, Mar 31, 2017, 20:40 		14.13 Adam Ottavino, RP, COL

I wasn’t thrilled to see Lucas Duda get taken, but once I saw it was mikulka, I wasn’t surprised. He loves guys like that. With Duda gone, I’ll be waiting on my backup 1B.

I’m focusing a lot here on pitching. RP from 29 of the 30 MLB teams have been selected, with Philly being the lone holdout. I value Hector Neris above Jeanmar Gomez because I hate owning subpar relievers. I’m also still smarting from my stupid, stupid pick of [undrafted] last year in that same bullpen. Neris is actually a very good pitcher. He gets a lot of strikeouts and seems to have some mild babip suppression skill that keeps his WHIP in check. As long as he keeps playing well, he is very likely in line to take over if and when Gomez slips up.

I also really love Adam Ottavino, though not necessarily for saves at this point. My pre-draft plan targeted him as my second closer. I firmly believe in his skills; it’s an admittedly small sample, but he’s been one of the very best relievers in all of baseball over the past two years. Projection systems are regressing him too heavily toward league average, in my opinion. I hate that management seems likely to give the closer job to Greg Holland and his longer track record, but I think the hook will be pretty quick if he comes out slow in his first mile high experience.

There are bunch of good young starting pitchers worth speculating on. I think my need is more pressing for saves, though, and the large pool of names suggests that I can probably wait and still get a share.

It wouldn’t be a bad idea to fill my MI slot, either. Jedd Gyorko offers fantastic multi-positional eligibility. I think 2016 probably represents his ceiling, though. It’s never exciting to pay up for that. I do still have a couple MI names in mind for later, so I think I’ll pass.

I’ve settled on Neris and Ottavino as my top two names. I think I will likely take the other at 15.04 if he remains available. So who do I like better, and who will be more appealing to the teams on the turn? I like Ottavino better as a pitcher, but I’m projecting Neris for more saves at this point. Ottavino has the higher ADP, but the late breaking news on Holland is undoubtedly depressing his stock. How much, though? Very tough to judge.

I’m taking Ottavino. Hopefully Neris sticks around just a little bit longer.

15.04 Carlos Rodon, SP, CHW

The Ottavino/Neris combo wasn’t meant to be. I didn’t factor in the possibility that somebody would double up on Neris and Gomez as it’s never an approach that I would take, but that proved to be the difference. Anyway, it’s not too much of a downer, but I have to take a look at a lot of extra names now.

Time to dig into that extensive starting pitching tier. There are too many players to give an in-depth run down of my thoughts, so I’m going to stick to capsule reviews in this rationale.

Jon Gray broke free of the Coors Field curse last year to be fantasy relevant by striking out almost 10 batters per 9 IP. His problems were more on the road than at home, which is a twist from the usual.

Sean Manaea showed growth in the second half of 2016. There is obvious K upside, but his contact management concerns me.

Vince Velasquez is an injury-prone strikeout artist. If he reins in the homers or manages 150 IP, he’ll be a good buy. If he does both, he’s a potential stud.

Carlos Rodon is a former third overall draft pick with a great 2016 2H. The WHIP is scary, but I think he deserved much better.

Jerad Eickhoff has had great results in the majors. Fewer strikeouts than the guys above, but has better control and maintains solid contact management skills. 197 IP last year.

Jeff Samardzija is very different than the others under consideration as the old vet of the group. He’s a proven 200+ IP workhorse who responded well to his new NL home. Lacks the Ks, but won’t hurt my WHIP.

I like Rodon best of the bunch. I really do think his 1.39 WHIP was deceptive, and the pedigree only supports my conclusion. I don’t feel a need to take my SP3 here, but I’m also pretty sure that we’re about to have a run on them. I don’t think I’m going to feel much pain at my other positions of need between now and 16.13.
196twilson
      ID: 2221181
      Fri, Mar 31, 2017, 21:17 		12.13 Kendrys Morales, UTL, TOR

Lots of outfielders I like here. I could grab some steals with Kevin Kiermaier, Rajai Davis, or Ender Inciarte. Kiermaier is outstanding center fielder that has been only acceptable at the plate. He significantly upped his walk rate and added SBs last year, which point to a maturing approach. Ultra-athletic defense-first players sometimes manage to figure out the hitting side of things a few years into their career, which gives reason for optimism. His spring has been unremarkable, but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

In the other direction, Marcell Ozuna has big power potential. Another contender is Kendrys Morales. He is a pure DH that I would be forced to stash in my Utility slot. I figure that slot will pretty much always be filled with a fifth OF, though, so I don’t downgrade him too much for this. I think Morales can really surprise people this year. He took a huge step up in batted ball velocity in 2016 which somehow completely failed to show up in his hitting line. Furthermore, Morales will be in a better park and lineup, which should ensure continued strong counting stat totals.

There are still some closers out there to consider. Raisel Iglesias has plenty of upside, but management keeps talking about spreading the saves around, and he’s already dealing with arm concerns. If he’s healthy, he’s the clear top talent in that bullpen, but I always hate drafting pitchers with bum arms.

Brandon Maurer is the other name I’m looking at. He throws hard, gets enough swinging strikes, and was able to hold the job last year after Fernando Rodney was traded. Everything I read out of Padres camp obsesses over Carter Capps, though, and management has refused to officially name him as the guy. I’d be more comfortable if they’d just provide a little reassurance.

I ultimately chose to give more credence to Morales’ batted ball profile than the other alternatives. I haven’t been able to make as much use of that information as I had hoped pre-draft, so I want to plant a flag here with Morales.

13.04 Marcell Ozuna, OF, MIA

Seattle Zen took Kiermaier on the turn, but I still have three solid outfield options on the table. Rajai Davis is a base stealer with a bit of pop. I’ve never drafted him before, but have happily plucked him from the FA pool in multiple RIBC seasons for a multitude of cheap SBs. Any time I can roster speed without killing my ratios is a big positive.

Marcell Ozuna, like Jake Lamb, had a torrid first few months before suffering a hand/wrist injury. He kept playing, but clearly wasn’t the same. In the 13th round, I’m only paying for a repeat of his 2016. I have a feeling the price will be a lot higher this time next year.

Ender Inciarte is a solid value pick, too, if I want a more balanced profile. He’ll lead off for the Braves, get on base at a good clip, and throw in 20 steals. It would be amusing to corner the top of the Atlanta lineup between him and Swanson.

Taking my OF4 is awful for draft flexibility after the Morales pick last round. I’d be locking up my final OF/UTL slot at a time when I’m likely to see value at the position for at least the next four picks. Iglesias and Maurer remain available if I want a reliever. I like Ozuna the best of the bunch, but it’s going to be difficult to compete in SB if I take a zero from him at OF4.

It may not give me the best preseason standing projection, but I think I have to take the value where I see it. My gut says Ozuna is a guy I’m going to want to own this year, and I’ve got a golden opportunity to make that happen. The other options just make me as comfortable as he does.
197twilson
      ID: 2221181
      Fri, Mar 31, 2017, 21:46 		16.13 Yulieski Gurriel, 3B, HOU

My roster is beginning to come together. I need two more offensive starters (MI and CI). I own one more starting pitcher than I expected, but I’m okay with that. Saves and speed are my weak points. I’m not sure what I’m going to do for the latter, but I don’t think SBs are a lost cause as of yet.

The infielder pool keeps consistently thinning out bit by bit. SS is a dead zone and 3B is getting near that point. I could go 1B, but Steve Pearce’s offseason surgery and continuing recovery is a deal breaker for me. I see late options I’d be comfortable with. 2B is more promising. I was surprised when Panik went in the 15th, as he was on my list of likely undervalued players. No matter, I’ve still got four others I can see myself owning.

Ryan Schimpf is the next guy by ADP, and he has an absolutely bizarre profile. At the age of 27, he got his first taste of the majors and proceeded to hit the ball in the air 65% of the time. That’s more than 10% higher than anyone else in baseball. And he hit them hard! In the meantime, he popped the ball up way too much and the few grounders he did hit were dead ducks right into the shift. Schimpf’s walk rate is fantastic, though he pairs it with equally outsized quantity of strikeouts. There are so many ways in which his skillset can absolutely crater at a moment’s notice, but that doesn’t mean it’s guaranteed to happen. He’s already succeeded once, which is the hardest part.
I think Josh Harrison and Brandon Phillips are basically the same player at this point in their careers. Unexciting, in decline, but still useful for fantasy purposes. They also would give me some steals in the bargain.

Howie Kendrick is the fourth option. He’s another Mr. Consistent, and I forecast a rebound to career norms in 2017. His ADP is way down in the 300s, so he should be around for my 18/19 pair. Then again, I said the same thing about Joe Panik.

Ender Inciarte is still around. I first mentioned him four rounds ago as an option, and he does have a statistical profile that matches my team needs. He’s a great value in the 16th round. But can I really take a backup outfielder when I still have obvious needs in the starting lineup?

Jerad Eickhoff is the only SP left from the big group I looked at two rounds ago. I’ve done a good job projecting runs in this draft. I’m not complaining, as Eickhoff may have been my second favorite after Rodon. I though he had the best chance of dropping. But SP4 is nearly as much of a luxury as a backup outfielder would be.

As I mentioned before, I’m not thrilled with what’s left at 3B. Hernan Perez was almost as much of a nobody as Schimpf entering 2016, and now he’s playing in the WBC (albeit sparingly). He steals bases, which has been an ongoing area of need for me all draft, but I think I believe in him less than Schimpf. Yulieski Gurriel was not good in his first taste of baseball stateside, but struggling in his situation is very understandable. With an offseason to adjust, the guy the Astros paid nearly $50 million dollars for could emerge.

I think this has to be a roster need pick, which narrows it down to 2B and 3B. Schimpf and Gurriel are my two favorites from their position groups. Both have plenty of warts. On top of the performance risk, Schimpf isn’t set in stone as San Diego’s keystone man. And it’s not like the Astros don’t have other options if Gurriel continues to struggle at the plate. In the end, I took Gurriel because I just don’t trust in Schimpf’s approach.

17.04 Jerad Eickhoff, SP, PHI

Seattle Zen took Schimpf, but everyone else is left from my prior rationale. With three viable 2B on the board and the low ADP of Kendrick, I’m pretty comfortable that I can wait. That frees me up to take a luxury pick. SP4 or OF5, which will it be? The answer is Eickhoff. I think he has an appealing combo of floor and upside, especially for the 17th round. If he can push his strikeouts closer to 8 per 9 IP, he’ll be the quintessential innings eater that doesn’t hurt me.
199Fosten
      ID: 4097314
      Sat, Apr 01, 2017, 00:15 		21.02 Michael Conforto, OF, NYM
aka. “I know a guy who works with his cousin.” And there goes Lorenzen! Probably should have went Moreland here, considering Pearce can play outfield in a few weeks. But ladies and gentlemen, the Amazin'© Michael Conforto is hitting the cover off the ball this spring. He was an 12th round RIBC pick last year, a 21st rounder now. Will Jay Bruce still be Amazin'© by May? I could envision a Bruce trade on a similar timeline to Davis/Duda, which was April 18th. I passed on Conforto in other drafts, because I already had enough outfielders. However, it is Amazin'© how much his upside valuation changes, when you draft him as a starter instead of an bench player. Similar to Margot, this is another Amazin'© late-round value pick for the Mobsters, an extra outfielder hanging around a tier after everyone else filled up on steak. With Lagares ailing, Conforto should make the team out of Spring, and be starting before Summer. Amazin'©! Lets go Mets!

22.15 Tyler Skaggs, SP, LAA
aka. “I own stock everywhere!” Tyler Skaggs is kinda like Jonathan Taylor Thomas, except without the Teen Beat posters. I don’t tend to carry a lot of SP in RIBC, because I think there’s more value to be found in streaming starts, so this is where I draw the line. Skaggs is the true ace in LA, and I was thrilled that his ADP was so low, so I could draft him everywhere. His elite ERA fits the other Mobster pitchers, his FIP has been even better, and I think there’s more strikeouts on the way. 2.5 years removed from TJ surgery, this former first round prospect is selling out local concerts, driving fangirls wild, and ready to breakout on the national scene. He’s releasing a new boyband CD this summer, he’s got all the right moves, and I'm pre-ordering the vinyl.

23.02 Jurickson Profar, 3B, TEX
aka. "Sparky the Plug”. This is my brother Jurickson, and this is my other brother Jurickson. Somewhat worried the shoulder injury zapped whatever power he had, but Bugs Bunny is all over the field and should find at-bats. A perennial Mobster, I didn’t get a chance to draft him on many teams this year, so I’m grabbing him in RIBC. He performed well in the WBC, so perhaps this is the year the breakout finally happens. Its ESPN robbery that he only gets 3B, and its an Wild West Texas Holdup that he hasn’t been traded already. His mama told him, he's gonna be so much more, someday. I think Pittsburgh makes a great landing spot. Most seasons, I let someone else draft him, wait until they drop him, and then I pick him up. Let’s just go ahead and speed up the process this year.

24.15 Mallex Smith, OF, TAM
aka. “More steals? So full! Can’t eat another bite!” Word is that Colby Rasmus will miss a 4-6 weeks and that puts Mallex in the opening day starting lineup. I love when Colby Rasmus has an impact on my team! blue hen seems to like Mallex, so maybe I can trade swing a trade. Wait, BH isn’t in this league? I was wondering why he was waiting until round 24 to pick! The bank of steals is open, might as well get as I can while he still has a job. Run like the wind Mallex! You don’t have much time!

25.02 Jayson Werth, OF, WAS
aka. “This pick was WERTH-LESS!” If Conforto is on the bench Opening Day, then I still need a 4th OF until Pearce and Profar qualify. The 25th round seems early for a 4th OF. Don’t you think? This is the question that I have been asking all of you this draft. Haven’t you already drafted my 4th outfielder? Isn’t he already on your team right now, just waiting for you to drop, and for me to pick up? Perhaps he’s a minor leaguer, just waiting to get the call? As a Mets fan, I can’t stand Jason Werth (nothing personal), so I figured this would be a player I could easily drop for a streaming slot (nothing personal). Perhaps we shall call the day that I release Jayson Werth, "Garden gnome” "Garden gnome" day! (As Werth chases with a bat, Fosten runs in terror). Thanks to everyone who read my posts, and to Guru for putting up with my lag. Best of luck to everyone in the new season. Cheers to rotoguru, the best folks in all the land! Peace.
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