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0 Subject: RIBC 2017: Draft recap

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Wed, Mar 29, 2017, 22:52

RIBC Managers: This thread is for your (optional) overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say.

1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Non-managers are also free to post comments or ask questions.
1Seattle Zen
      ID: 301361318
      Thu, Mar 30, 2017, 12:15
First, thanks out to Guru for hosting this greatest of fantasy baseball leagues. It’s exciting to get an opportunity to take home a pennant in “The Show”, hope I brought my A game.

1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

If you were to call my strategy a “plan”, I guess it would be “value” and flexibility. I like to think that by being able to take Mike Trout first, I get a little head start on everyone. Hey, I’ll need it!

It came as no surprise that the top 11 middle infielders were off the board before I got to pick again at number 32. Nor was it shocking that eight corner infielders came off the board, though I was sorta hoping that Freddy Freeman might slip, not even close. Knowing that the best MI were long gone, I felt that the best way to build an offense was to have an amazing outfield that could carry a weak set of middle infielders. I was flexible when I decided to take Lucroy at pick 64, that goes against my instinct to leave catchers until the end. I may look back and decide that it would have been a smarter move to take DJ LeMahieu rather than either Lucroy or Seager. Regardless, I believe I made smart moves at each of my turns in the first half of the draft taking value and being flexible.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

I was boasting about what a steal I felt I got with Yasmani Tomas. I also love when I get guys I feel will be very profitable in the twenties rounds, so I like my Joe Mauer and Michael Lorenzen picks, too. Do over? Well, again I wonder about my Lucroy and Seager picks, what would have happened if I went with DJ. Also wonder if Tommy Joseph was an unnecessary reach. I’m hoping to laugh at that thought at the end of the season.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I was always bellyaching about the picks beastiemiked, holt and guru were making, taking guys I hoped would slip to me. Honestly think that nearly every team put together a very solid squad, way too difficult to predict who will be one-two-three, but history seems to favor holt, bmd, guru and kdl212, regardless of draft.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

It seemed strange that both holt and guru spent so many resources on closers. Doubly strange to see Fosten buy five relievers in the first 15 rounds. Has anyone ever taken ten starters like KDogHall? Surprised to see that in both saves and steals, there will be three or four teams that have a chance of obliterating the rest of us and four or five teams that will barely get any. Some maybe half the teams went for true balance, half over or under emphasized at least one category. I was surprised at just how crappy Boozer’s rationales were. I have known him a decade, he’s funny as hell. Don’t tell me you suddenly care about a job or something.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

No, but what I will do differently from last year is make double effort to use all 162 games at each position. With no DL and a wafer thin bench, it is very difficult to accomplish this task. Keeping injured players hampers your ability to so. A logical decision in April to keep an injured or suspended player on the bench can quickly turn into a series of poor decisions as you lose any chance of getting to 162.
2Uptown Bombers
      ID: 38261518
      Thu, Mar 30, 2017, 20:59
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

My strategy has remained mostly the same over the years: target MI early and don’t overpay for saves. In the last few seasons, I’ve tried to stay ahead of the curve on OF. Last year, I opted to favor youth and upside when dealing with comparable players. It worked out well, so I planned on doing it again. As far as how I executed that, mixed results. I left the draft with a few more older established vets than last year but I still feel like I have a good number of players who could easily outperform their projections if they take a step forward this year. I did draft 2 MI in my first seven picks, but Russell is one of those young players who I’m counting on to exceed his projections. If he does, then I’ll have done well with MI. Obviously, I waited on saves. Last year, I drafted the 4th RP off the board with pick 85. This year, by pick 85, 10 RP had been drafted. This madness, I mean pattern, continued over the next two rounds, so once I skipped on RP in round 6, most of the “good” closers were gone. I didn’t see the value of those remaining in the 7th round, so waited until the 10th, where I think I ended up with someone who can be just as good as the 4/5 RP drafted before Bedrosian, but at a few rounds discount.


2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Favorite: I like my stretch from round 11 to 14, Bird, Nola, Shoemaker, Mazara. Funny enough, these were the rounds when I nearly drove myself crazy with my obsession over Joe Panik, but in retrospect, I think those four players have solid potential to outperform their draft positions.

Do Over: I noted this in my rationales but I would have been better off skipping on Sal Perez and just waiting a few more rounds on C. I wouldn’t have taken the streaming approach (but I’m interested in following how that pans out and its why I love this league and format). Also, as noted above, I need Addison Russell to do big things this year. I believe he can, but I’ve become less enthused with that pick over time. He’s not a true do over, but I’m feeling a little nervous about it.

Fave picks that were not my own: deGrom at 5.11, Trumbo at 8.14, Castellanos at 13.06, Thomas at 16.16 and Harvey at 17.07. Two Mets pitchers on that list is certainly a reflection of my home team bias.


3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Based on nothing more than an eye test, mmikulka, kdl212 and twilson (his drafting delays appear to have counted for something :))

As always though, this league is too competitive to for our rosters now to tell us the whole story.


4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Not much in terms of the draft strategy itself, though the closer run was pretty intense.

More generally, I grow less enthusiastic about the slow draft every year. The software at Draftime offers so much but most of it gets wasted. Considering that our average pick time was under an hour and most picks were made under two hours, I’d like to see us move to a 3 hour limit or more aggressively a 2 hour limit. It would encourage more use of queues and perhaps even let us start the draft a few days later so as to gather more Spring Training information.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Besides waiting even more on C, I don’t have any especially big regrets. I like the team I have assembled. My team’s projections hit the pre-draft stats goals I set so now it will be up to me to manage the players and adjust to maximize my results. I have bounced back and forth from AAA and the bigs in the last few years and I’d like to just secure my spot for next year. I’ve already won this thing once, and I’d love to win again of course, but with so many strong managers, it’s far more realistic to aim for the top few spots and be content with that.
3Bmd
      ID: 825715
      Thu, Mar 30, 2017, 22:22


1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

No plan at all. I knew I was going hitter/hitter to start the draft unless Kershaw fell. After that I was winging it. I guess I executed that. I was not a fan of my draft. I felt unprepared and wish I could take back at least 7-8 of the picks.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Bryce in round 1. I feel he alone can lead me to the top 6 if he can live up to his potential. Bauer in round 22. Really feel like he's going to take the next step this year.

Picks I don't like, Myers round 4, Martinez round 5, Martin round 12. I feel like there were better available at these picks.


3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Might answer this another day. Haven't had a chance to analyze anybody's team.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

C(losers) I just don't understand how some of them were going so early. The elite handful I can understand but after the 5th best closer they are pretty much all a crapshoot.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Find a better way to track players taken. I missed out on some guys because I had thought they had already been taken. Strategy wise, not draft 3 pitchers in the first 8 rounds. So many talented arms available later in the draft. Of course my team last year had Kershaw and still had the worst staff in the league. I think I over compensated for that this year.
4mmikulka
      ID: 1122060
      Fri, Mar 31, 2017, 01:45
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I had a bunch of strategies in mind:

1) Don’t get stuck wasting mid-round picks on mediocre players.
Don’t get stuck overpaying to make up ground in categories.


There’s nothing worse than watching all kinds of interesting high-upside players get taken in rounds 10-15 while you’re stuck drafting somebody entirely uninspiring or unreliable as your starting 2B/SS/C (or taking a shot on a talentless hack of a reliever because he has a decent shot at saves).

That meant I needed to get one of the top shortstops, and it meant that either I needed a top-3 catcher or a 25th rounder. It meant I needed to get my steals and my saves early.

The other half to that strategy:
Wait to draft deep positions.
Wait to draft deep categories.


There are usually a lot of SP and OF left in the later rounds, and a higher percentage of the SP/OF other teams pick will be players I have no interest in. SLG (and RBI to some degree) will also be available late.

I didn’t get as many SB as I intended (I never seem to be able to draft enough steals even though I think I have them valued highly), but I did well with the rest of this strategy. I may have taken “wait on SP” to an extreme, but it’s something I’ve done several times in the past and pulled off fairly well.

2) Find the league-specific hidden value:

In the RIBC leagues, I tend to find value in:
-Older players and players coming off an injury or a down year
-Elite relievers (I may be calling a little too much attention to this)
-Players with 1B/OF eligibility as a way to make platooning more viable

As usual, my mid/late rounds were full of players in their early 30s (Longoria/Tulo/Choo/Duda) and people coming off a bad/injured season (Puig/Choo/Duda/Capps/Harvey). I certainly took enough elite relievers: my 7 RP drafted probably at least ties the RIBC record. Combined with my bench picks of Ellsbury and Plouffe, Thames’ dual eligibility will allow me to take advantage of platoon splits (Davis, Duda, Thames, and Dickerson are all likely to have sizable preferences for RHP).

This year I’ll be streaming catchers. It seems like a clear advantage: hopefully there isn’t some kind of unforeseen complication that explains why people haven’t been doing this regularly.

3) Shoot for players with high upside whenever it isn't driving up their price.

Riding David Ortiz and Jose Altuve last year made me realize how a few unexpectedly elite players can carry your team.

I took a bunch of players that have a significant chance to outperform their draft position by several rounds (Thames in the 9th/Puig in the 11th/Duda in the 14th/Ray in the 15th/Harvey in the 17th/).

Overall impression
I’m very happy with my team. It seems well balanced both by category and by position, and my most worrisome area at the moment (SP) is the easiest to fix via free agency. Last year I picked up a few good starters, including Rich Hill: hopefully this year will be similar.

A great year from Ray or Harvey combined with a mostly healthy Strasburg would put me in championship contention.

On the other hand, if Strasburg tears his UCL again, if Ray and Harvey are both busts, or if Altuve has a major injury, then I could be in some trouble.


2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

I liked Strasburg (71), Upton (90), Tulowitzki (154), and Ray (231): however, Harvey (263) was my clear favorite due the combination of positional need and extreme ADP value.

I also liked getting the combination of Robertson (103) and Nate Jones (199).

I hated that Ellsbury pick (282) when I made it, and I hate it even more now. If I’m drafting an OF who’s going to have about 40 runs and a SLG below .380, they should get me way more than 15-20 SB.


3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

BMD took the polar opposite approach to my team (loading up on elite SP and OF)… and he doesn’t seem happy with his draft…. and I don’t remember him taking any players I was hoping for… but as I look at his team, I like it a lot (though the Koda Glover / Byung Ho Park demotions hurt).

Seattle Zen and twilson are each a closer and a MI breakout away from being the team to beat.

kdl212 is probably the team I put at the top right now: it seems balanced, and it has both depth and upside.


4. What surprised you most about the draft?

I probably shouldn’t be the one to say it since I don’t currently own a catcher, but I was surprised that Boozer didn’t fill his CI until the last round, and then chose a 1B whose current playing time upside is the short side of a platoon. Maybe there’s an additional move coming soon, but there was no hint of an explanation in his rationale for that pick.


5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

I’m interested what my team would have looked like if I took the 2 slot and drafted Kershaw.

Missing out on all the top MI, my strategy would have had to be very different. There’s a real possibility I would have started out SP/SP/SP/RP/RP and tried to find creative ways to make up ground in the batting categories.

I’m happy with this draft result, though: even though I would have loved to have Kershaw, drafting later and getting a top SS was a much better fit for my preferred RIBC strategies.
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