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Subject: RIBC 2017: Retrospective
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Mon, Oct 02, 2017, 22:53
Congrats to Team Mikulka, winner of the 2017 RIBC.
A few post-season duties remain:
1. RIBC managers may post a recap of their season, if they wish. What worked well, what went wrong, what would you do differently the next time, and what did you learn?
2. I'd appreciate it if someone from each of the qualifying leagues would send me a link to their final standings. I'll post them in a separate thread. (If your team names do not easily identify the related team manager, please provide those linkages as well.)
3. If there were any managers in any league who failed to live up to standards in behavior or activity level, I'd like to know about it. Bad behavior is never tolerated. Failing to follow through for the season can also be grounds for declining an invite to the RIBC or a AAA league, depending on circumstances. Rather than publicly "ratting out" any other manager in this thread, I suggest that you send me a confidential email.
Thanks to everyone for a great season. |
| 1 | Seattle Zen
ID: 1610533022
Sat, Dec 30, 2017, 23:53
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It’s time for my annual RIBC autopsy. Funny how much more quickly I get around to doing this when I win the league. I have this idea that if I undergo this exercise I may uncover mistakes and learn from them. Now I just realize that I must improve my offerings to the God of Randomness and (perhaps more importantly) improve my in-season roster management.
This autopsy consists of looking at each round of the draft and declaring which picks were good and bad using ESPN’s value system. I am still rather amazed that we still do not have a consensus on how to value fantasy baseball statistics. Considering the number of Ivy League PhD’s who are employed in MLB and/or contribute to fantasy baseball journalism, no one has made a definitive model to value an individual’s statistics. I have reservations about ESPN’s valuations, particularly regarding relief pitchers. They have Kenley Jansen and C Kimbrel worth more than all but four starters and seven batters. Most other valuation systems have closers knocked way down. I don’t have the math chops to argue one way or another, I’m just skeptical. But I have nothing better to replace it with, so I am going to stick with ESPN’s.
First Round: In the eight years I have been involved in RIBC, this year’s first round had the fewest busts by far. I would only consider two of the picks poor, Miguel Cabrerra and Manny Machado. There were arguably 10 good first round picks: Altuve, Votto, Goldschmidt. Max Scherzer, Trout, Kershaw, Arenado, Bryant, Rizzo and Harper. That is way above average.
Second Round: The second best player of the whole season was Charlie Blackmon, nice pick Boozer. The second best pick of the second round was the last pick of the round, Chris Sale. The God of Randomness smiled upon me as I would have taken Thor if Fosten had not picked him right ahead of me. Furthermore, I stated in my rationales that I didn’t contemplate going with Corey Kluber had both Sale and Thor been gone.
Even though he broke his wrist and missed a good portion of the season, Fab Five Freddy Freeman was the third best pick of the second round. Daniel Murphy stabbed the regression monster in the eye and mocked his naysayers even with an injury plagued late season. Guru had a nice pick with EEncarnacion and mmikukla wrapped up a wicked middle infield with F Lindor.
Busts - N Syndergaard. He knows his body better than any silly college educated physiologist. What was J Villar’s excuse? Starling Marte spent the offseason competing in Mr. Olympus leaving his urine a multi-colored rainbow that MLB frowned upon. When he returned he could still steal bases but no longer deadlift over 750 pounds. Trevor “sad” Story was digested by the regresion monster and left on BMD’s doorstep. He was prepared for this as he stated that he could fall flat and no one would be surprised. The Mad Bum may be able to wrestle crocks, but motorcycles are out of his league.
Third Round: The third best player overall was Corey Kluber. A 0.87 WHIP with 265K is sick. Giancarlo finally had that season everyone was waiting for. BMD’s pick paid off in spades. The ninth best player who dominates his four categories - 1000+ OPS, 123 runs, 132 RBI. Let me be the first to encourage him to go back to his regularly injured ways in the Bronx. Kenley Jansen, according to ESPN, was the 12th best player. I have already stated I disagree with how they value closer’s stats, but mmikulka doesn’t. He all about this valuation, perhaps his professed love of the underappreciated closers pleased the Fantasy gods as they lead his hand to Kenley and not Aroldis. Next best pick was Nelson Cruz. How is it that all three of my picks have been in the “good” category and yet I finished 12th? The other good picks were Dozier, Abreu and George Springer. Do you remember when I compared Ben Zobrist’s stats per 600PA to Springer’s and implied that Zobrist was an equal talent? No, nor do I and I’m grateful no one reads the Draft rationales past post 100.
There were some Busts: Johnny Cueto did his thing where he sucks for an entire year. Yoenis Cespedes was smited for pride and automobile gluttony. Ryan Braun and John Lester let me down in other leagues, don’t feel alone, KD Hall and Uptown.
Fourth Round - JD Martinez had an amazing year, killing it in both leagues. Over 100 RBI in only 432 ABs! Slugging .741 in Arizona, 29 homers in 232 ABs! Just krushing! And he was taken after Chris Davis! Justin Verlander had a great season. He, too, leaving Detroit midseason. Andrew McCutchen said “hush, you!” to those writing his obituary. Chris Archer paid off.
Busts - Finally, a rich litany of shipwrecks on the shoals of this round. It was a close one, but Gregory Polanco was just that much worse than J Lucroy. Lucroy was dreck, traded midseason and eventually benched for suckage. Rougned Odor was foul. I spoke with Fosten a lot this preseason and his favorites were Thor and Odor. Must have been a terrible year overall on all platforms. The aforementioned Chris Davis will now have to take a back seat to the default Khris Davis. Jose Bautista was not, I repeat NOT punished by the baseball gods for his batflip. The man is 48 years old by way of the Roman calendar, I went to highschool with him in the Dominican. He just got old, please, keep flipping those bats! Zach Britton, WTF? You were supposed to be good. Carlos Gonzalez is SO glad he was drafted in the fourth. He didn’t get chopped for many rounds because of those other bums, but it wasn’t like he was winning anything, you know?
Fifth Round - Stephen Strasberg had a great season, only the second time he had 200+K and his career best WHIP and ERA. Dee Gordon paid Guru off for last year’s debt. Guru fought recency bias and the availability heuristic to realize this profit. Anthony Rendon surprised the hell out of me, but I was suffering from a case of 2015 confirmation bias. Remember when Rendon was a frequent first round pick in 2015? I predicted he would be a bust. He was a spectacular bust and that confirmation seared into my mind. I couldn’t shake it, so to see this squat, unimpressive physique crush for a 937 OPS and an amazing 403 OBP, it doesn’t register. I dream that someday autopsies like this will allow me to see my fallacies and flaws. A man can dream.
Jacob deGrom and Justin Turner were great. Justin Turner is a great story for a great beard! He had a 1.037 OPS in the first half, he got on nearly half of the time! He had a better wOBP and more ottoneu points per ab than Rendon. If he gets over 600 PAs next year, Justin Turner may contribute second round value.
Busts - Hanley Ramirez did not repeat his nice 2016 season. I have a soft spot in my heart for this dreadlocked enigma. Ian Desmond. You know when a player slips to you because of a pre-season injury that makes everyone leary, yet you pump your fist when you grab him and them talk about gaining multi-positional ability, but they never recover and stink all season long? Yeah, that. S Hwan Oh. David Neihaus would have said “MY, OH, MY” a lot less than “OH, MY, GOD!” this year if he was around. Kyle Seager was worse than Adrian Beltre. Absolute Kelvin Herrera wasn’t that good.
Sixth Round - There were some real good picks, again ESPN thinks Craig Kimbrel had a better season than Carlos Carrasco. His season was impressive with that K/9. Jose Ramirez paid off Boozer’s upside bet. I love the Angry Hamster and personally prefer the Lindor/Ramirez duo to the Bryant/Rizzo pair from the 2016 World Series, but my fellow white males disagree with me. Jose is a switch hitter who crushes lefties and righties with equal rudeness. Justin Upside had another LL Cool J “Don’t Call it a Comeback” season. Hard to believe he is only 30 years old. Colome, Osuna and K Giles all had good seasons, whatever.
Busts - Jeuris Familia sucked, as did Melancon. I am in danger of a severe case of confirmation bias regarding Kyle Schwamer. I have always thought of him as overrated. He has a David Koresh-like power over the entranced journalists at ESPN. He hit 30 homers and he’s a “gamer” and a loveable, pudgy legend of Cubs lore. I’m going to stick to my guns and let it ride, he will be overvalued again in 2018. Ian Kinsler had a down year. Every season in RIBC I want Brandon Belt and every year I just miss out on him. This year I’m glad that I did.
Seventh Round - Eric Hosmer had his best season right as he was set to become a free agent, yet he still hasn’t signed and therefore it may have been for naught. David Robertson, Gerrit Cole and Kaeta Maeda were the only other bright spots in this sewage of a round.
Garbage - Aledmys Diaz’s season looked like the spelling of his first name (insert here intense side-eye GIF). KRod was another of my disappointments. He deserved to be the first closer to lose his job. So after three good picks in a row I now rattle off four stinkers. Addison Russell did not follow the script and regressed rather than improved. Jackie Bradley Jr. was a a big reason the Red Sox offense was not elite. Danny Salazar and Dustin Pedroia are not at all alike, but they both did not earn their keep.
Eighth Round - Zach Greinke had a spectacular season and was a main reason the DBacks were in the playoffs. Boozer started hard out of the gates this season with surprising performances from many of his picks, Elvis Andrus among them. Read his rationale to see how lucky he was, the other four players he said were under consideration all sucked. I was targeting Elvis this season. The 20 HRs were not foreseeable, but his OPS of 807 mirrored his 800 from last last year, so it shouldn’t have been too surprising. Krush Davis and Jake Lamb were great picks. Reading Twilson’s list of the players he considered other than Lamb is like watching the concussed Wylie Coyote stumble through a minefield. Kdl212 showed his vulnerability when he stated that he “instantly regretted” his Davis pick. He longed to be redeemed with a 320/500 season. Well Krush learned some patience as his walk rate went through the roof and delivered a 336/538 season. Andrew Benin Bartender stole 20 bases, a 350+ OBP and decent counting stats made him a good pick.
Busts - General Maikell Franco got demoted to private because he sucks. Everyone mentioned Trumbo in their rationales, meaning that everyone was envious of jdredbarger. We were all wrong. Sam Dyson sucked. Jose Peraza will likely cause Dave R to refrain from taking a flier on a rookie middle infield speedster for a long time. Evan Longoria continued his slide into the mundane.
Ninth Round - Wait, I said the seventh round was bad, but the ninth was the worst round I have seen in my life! Few of us but a small and loyal band of Viking fans remember the year they sat on their hands while two teams ran to the podium to take picks before the Vikings finally turned in their card. Other than The Champ mmikulka, had we just sat on our hands and waited until the 10th round, we would have done better. The flyer on Eric Thames was it for good picks, seriously.
Please Wear A Hazmat Suit before Proceeding - Brad Miller, it was not Miller Time. Jason Kipnis, you were mentioned in many rationales as someone owners wished to avoid. That’s the only thing all of us but Holt got right. Ben Zobrist, damn it, I REALLY hated the Cubs this year. Your sins are NOT pardoned. Adam Eaton, the only reason you weren’t a bigger disappointment was because you played so little. Piscotti, Neftali, Joc, Dahl, you all suck. Yazmani, Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp, you all are very handsome. You can’t hit it on the field, though.
Tenth Round - Holt bats .500 on the turn as Rich Hill makes up for Kipnis. Nice season, though I did drop him pretty early in a shallow league I’m in, dumbass. J Schoop sneaks another unheralded season under the radar in Charm City. Sometimes being a homer rewards you when the deck smacks you in the head, Boozer, to mix in a poker metaphor. Dexter Fowler is regularly underappreciated. Jose Baez rode his WBC success to a great season at Zobrist’s expense.
Busts - No, kdl212, Adrian Gonzalez would not provide 10th round production, more like 57th round, as he got Wally Pipped hard. Troy Tulowitsky again was extremely subpar. There will be a line waiting to draft him in the 13th round next year, you’ll see. Aaron Sanchez had a disaster of s season. Dansby Swanson had the type of year I would expect from a grown man named Dansby. That name gives me visions of a Ole Miss fratboy in a white polo hoping his tiki torch doesn’t catch the gel in his fashy on fire.
Albert Pujols killed my ratios, but I liked the RBIs, so I kept him around all year. I loved Mike Napoli last year, was glad I avoided him this year. Logan Forsythe will have to wait another year before breaking out.
Eleventh Round - There were a lot of great picks this round. Dalas Keuchel, Big Maple James Paxton and Lorenzo Cain were all excellent picks. Marcus Stroman is short and avoided the dreaded WBC letdown for starters. Yasil Puig had some production and Keon Broxton paid his keep.
Busts - Steve Matz was awful. That dead shark in your photo, Fosten, would have done less damage to your team. Greg Bird laid an… too easy. He hit a few bombs at the end of the season. Will he be overdrafted next season? VMart stunk. Holt was “shocked and disappointed” when Devon Travis was grabbed in front of him. Poor guy was stuck with Neil Walker and his vastly better stats. When did you become “sure” about your Shawn Kelley pick, Guru? I wrote down “Kelley” on the list of bad picks, I had to look at Drafttime again because I could remember what this Kelley’s first name was.
Should I give jdredbarger some recognition for his Rick Porcello pick? Everyone discounted his amazing Cy Young season. Even you would have rather worn a lampshade to work than take him. He wasn’t on the good list, but he avoided the bad list, so bully you JDRed!
12th Man Round - Domingo Santana was great, vying with Ervin as the best Santana in MLB this year. He’s no Johan, but this is the twelfth round. Greg Holland was a good pick. I was very disappointed I didn’t land Aaron Nola this year. He will be a great one, I believe. Shin Soo Choo was a success story. Moose Tacos had a ton of homers, didn’t fare as well in our format, but was still a decent value.
Busts - Jose Urias left a scar. Tommy Joseph was the other young Philly I wanted. I was wrong. Russell Martin and Evan Gattis make rational people hate catchers.
13th Round - Good luck round. In my rationales, I wondered aloud why people were still giving Marcel Ozuna a chance. Oh, THAT’s why! A bunch of closers that everyone thought would stink and lose their job didn’t, so ESPN lavished them with hosannas: Iglesias, Kintzler, A Reed and Ryan Madson. Nick Castellanos and Michael Fulmer had nice season, too.
Junk - Nate Jones and Koda Glover did not do squat. Yoan Mocada was a ghost until the very end of the season. Joe Ross should have been. Hunter Pence made everyone mentioning him in the same sentence as Ozuna look foolish.
14th Round - Fernando Rodney made us all look foolish save BMD. Hector Neris was not supposed to do that, but he did. Dylan Bundy, another frickin’ Boozer homer pick that pays off. All I can do is shake my head. Jay Bruce, Cesar Hernandez and Jose Reyes, of all people, were good picks. The only poor pick of the round was Adam Ottavino. Let’s all stand up and give ourselves a hand… not you, Twilson, you could have had Neris and you took forever, damnit!
15th round - I wanted Robbie Ray. I got him and Nola in my ottoneu league as my fifth and sixth starters, pretty happy there. He went from horrendous ratios to the type of ratios you are not shocked to see coming from a K machine like Ray. The Champ does an excellent bit of prognosticating in his rationale. I say I wanted Ray yet I drafted John Lackey. I’m an idiot.
Another stated reason for doing this autopsy is that I am forced to look at player performances that I missed during the year. Drew Pomeranz is one. I didn’t realize what a good year he had. Justin Bour had a great Home Run Derby performance outshined by the unworldly response of Aaron Judge. He was also an unheralded good value this season.
Busts - Carlos Beltran, everyone will remember your World Series ring as you walk off a certain Hall of Famer. They won’t remember your regular season. No one other than his immediate family even knows Jeanmar Gomez was in the major leagues last year. David Hudson was a dud, Carlos Rodon was hurt.
Damn, this is so time consuming. Aaron Judge was drafted after Hernan Perez. That won’t happen again. There were plenty of good picks in the remainder of the draft. Tommy Pham was not drafted and when he started to get some at bats, he put them to amazingly good use. Holt offered me Rizzo and Pham for Sale and Lo Cain at some point in the year. Who would have thought that Pham would have been the difference maker in that trade. I was right that Sale was better than Rizzo, Holt, but you were lucky I didn’t pull the trigger.
I would like to draw attention to me successfully dissing Matt Harvey and Alcedes Escobar in the preseason.
And I would be remiss if I didn’t point out that we might have had the all time greatest Mr. Irrelevant with Holt’s Ryan Zimmerman pick at number 400. Damn you, Holt, your shots in the dark are not supposed to pay off like that! I would have given even odds to the proposition that JR Rider would make an NBA roster and start.
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