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Subject: RIBC 2018: Draft rationale collection thread
Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Mon, Mar 12, 2018, 14:56
RIBC managers: Please post your rationales in this thread. Rationales are due on a two round lag (i.e., when you make you 3rd round pick, your 1st round rationale is due). You can post any rationale sooner than that if you wish.
Do not worry about placeholders or keeping things in the proper sequence. This is just a place to collect rationales, which I will then transfer over to the formal rationale thread in the proper sequence. This approach has worked well for the past several seasons, and I now have a somewhat automated method for making those transfers.
Remember that you should refrain from mentioning undrafted players. If you feel that your rationale requires that, then hold it back until the player has been drafted - unless the player mentioned is clearly undraftable this year.
When posting your first rationale, please also comment on your choice of draft sequence.
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Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.] |
| 102 | kdl212
ID: 342241312
Wed, Mar 21, 2018, 17:00
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17.03 Brandon Crawford, SS, SF
This is the first pick truly impacted by the selection of the now-suspended Jorge Polanco in round 12. If I still didn't need a middle infielder to fill out my starting lineup, I'd probably be picking a 5th starter before the reliable quality there dries up, or an UPSIDE! hitter pick. Instead, I'm drafting a "patio" - someone with a low floor, and no ceiling. As long he stays on the field, Crawford will give me .320/420 with 65 runs and 70 rbi, and asking for anything more is foolish. It's a big step down from what I had hoped to get from Jorge Polanco, and I'm not happy about it.
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| 103 | Meatwads
ID: 221352816
Wed, Mar 21, 2018, 17:46
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13.06 Garrett Richards, SP, LAA
Continuing with my approach of letting pitching fall to me, I felt this was a good spot to take someone in a pitchers park who has shown the ability to put up good ratios throughout his career as a starter. I'm not expecting a huge strikeout rate or anything approaching 200 innings this season, but a healthy season in the 150 innings range could make him a nice SP3. Health is the big red flag with this selection, but Ive seen enough from him at the end of last season and this spring to feel comfortable here.
14.11 Michael Fulmer, SP, DET
Since I had spent much of my early picks compiling a competitive offense, I decided to go back to back on starting pitchers for the first time. As with some of my other pitcher selections, Fulmer has shown the ability to deliver good ratios but his strikeout rate keeps his ADP lower than some others who strikeout 20-30 more hitters a season, while sporting a higher ERA and WHIP. Pitching for a Detroit team that looks like they could lose 90-100 games this season isn't ideal for wins, but that's a very speculative category. This pick gets me back in the mix on the pitching side versus the league.
15.06 Odubel Herrera, OF, PHI
After spending a while focused on the other side, I came around to the hitting, and was pleased to find someone in a situation as good as Herrera's. Projected to hit third (between OBP monsters), in a hitter's park, surrounded by an improving lineup are all solid reasons to add him. He is coming off a down season compared to his breakout in 2016, but showed improvement once the Phillies added Hoskins to their lineup. The steals he could theoretically bring to the table (25 SB in 2016), as well as entering his 26 season, all played a role in this selection.
16.11 Tanner Roark, SP, WSH
A popular name on some sleeper lists this offseason, I felt I was willing to gamble on him being the good version of himself again this season. Pitching for a good team (hopefully leading to a good win total) and showing the ability to put together multiple seasons of good ratios make this a value pick if he meets the projections I have come across. Obviously there is risk involved in taking anyone coming off a mediocre season, but I think I can trust him to be my SP5 entering the year.
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| 104 | filthy
ID: 824853
Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 03:23
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16.12 Kolten Wong, 2B, STL
Last round I remarked how it felt nice to stick to the ideal blueprint so far. Can't get everyone you like, but many years tend to leave me scrambling during the draft due to some unfortunate event. And like clockwork, Justin Turner breaks his wrist. There's that scrambling feeling that I was starting to feel lost without... Thankfully I've built an OF full of CI options so far and just need to keep beefing up the OF or add CI options to the queue. It's almost like I expect this sorta thing to happen. So for now, I still wouldn't mind adding insurance at 2B, C, OF, P.
Some undrafted that didn't stand out enough. Really thought I was going to be leaning toward 2 of the still undrafted OF, but Wong and Boxberger really started to stand out as I was narrowing my list down to top 2 before bed. Giolito would've been strongly considered. Odubel Herrera was on the radar for a few rounds but my management of him last season bumped him too close to blacklist territory to make the leap again.
Wong running wild this spring and shows flashes of figuring it out. Just needs to stay on the field more. Good 4th MI. High enough upside to bump Merrifield or Segura into 4th MI position the more I think about it. Exposes them as reaches really, but Wong feels like a huge slip to me. Had been thinking about it a few rounds and hit the point where I couldn't avoid it.
17.05 Brad Boxberger, RP, ARI
Lucky looking closer lottery ticket means time to push my undrafted OF back in the queue another pass. Really playing with fire that I'll be stuck scraping but my next tier is pretty large and not that far behind. Boxberger still has hope to be official closer. Well worth the chance given my unwillingness to pay a steep or even fair price for relief. Three buy low types so far has gotten me up to nearly one closer equivalent. I'm calling Boxberger about a 30-50% chance. Similar Nate Jones. And Holland wild card 0-100%. Can't see him remain unsigned but could see him settle for setup role. And could see giving up on him before the ticket pays out. As with all 3 of these guys. Been burned worse paying market relief price though so I hold firm to my philosophy most years.
Punting altogether was and still is under consideration. If I'm still rostering the equivalent of less than one closer after 2-3 weeks then I could shift lanes. Still a few candidates out there to get my odds up. About to hit a fork in the road next go round. Still really need pitching depth but still needing to fill a surprise hole at CI and/or add to the patchwork OF.
Ryan McMahon was considered for awhile. If he forces Desmond into lesser role and Boxberger doesn't get a small slice of the closer pie this will feel extra painful. Very unlikely but still gives me a bad gut feeling.
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| 105 | holt
ID: 328115
Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 05:11
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13.15 Gennett, Scooter 2B CIN
I still need a MI, unfortunately he won't be any help with SB's but I think he looked like the best bat available. Would be shocked if he repeated last season's .874 OPS but I won't be shocked if he out-hits Andrelton Simmons who is the other MI was considering (although I certainly could have used Simmons' SB's).
14.02 Soria, Joakim RP CWS
When I made this pick I felt pretty sure that Soria would be the White Sox Closer but he's not pitching well and it may go committee or to someone else. Ah well, we'll see. I was leaning toward Odubel Herrera or A Simmons. Prob should have leaned a little harder.
15.15 Faria, Jacob SP TAM
I had Faria last season and recall very much looking forward to each of his starts. Unfortunately there weren't very many. He looks like a dominant pitcher to me and I didn't figure he'd make it back to my rd 16 pick. He had a 3.43 era, 1.17, and around a K per IP in 86 IP last season. In his minor league career he has 3.13 era, 1.13 whip, & 9.4 SO9 in 599 IP. He's only 24. He's no sure thing but I think there is considerable upside.
16.02 Altherr, Aaron OF PHI
There were a few good OF bats that I figured would all be going away very soon. I had a very hard time choosing between Peralta, Hicks, and Altherr. It seems I have Peralta every year and I've always had some difficulties (injuries, platoons, and now the infamous humidor). I also had Hicks last season and he was very impressive. The rest of his career indicates that it may have been very much a fluke, but still, I almost drafted him. Altherr put together a nice .272 .340 .516 slash line in 372 AB last season. It looks like the Phillies may actually have a productive lineup this season. Altherr is 27 this season and may see even more power develop. We'll see. If he stinks then I cut him.
Altherr had decent speed when he was younger and had 5 sb last year but it sure feels like I'm punting the SB category. I don't like doing that but it is certainly headed that way.
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| 106 | Toral
ID: 0181517
Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 08:40
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13. 12 Jameson Taillon, SP, Pit
4.44 ERA, but 3.48 xFIP. .352 BAPIP. Pitched badly right after coming back from unfortunate health woes, better before and in last 5 starts. Pitching good in ST.
ALSO CONSIDERED: Cam Bedrosian (14.03), particularly becuz at the time of the pick he had been tipped as the favourite for the closer job. But I picked two top-10 closers so I wouldn’t have to use multiple picks down here.
14.05 Matt Chapman, 3B, Oak
Is this too early? It’s about a round before he went in other RIBC leagues. And there is a vet and an under-the-radar guy who might perform as well. But I need 2 CIs not just one, so I better get moving.
24, could improve, posted solid slugging average, looks like he will bat 5th and I can use some SLG and RBIs.
ALSO CONSIDERED, Todd Frazier (15.07), Ryon Healy, a couple folks I choose not to mention.
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| 107 | twilson
ID: 2221181
Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 17:03
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7.07 Jonathan Schoop, 2B, BAL
All of the closers I mentioned in my round 6 rationale have been taken, so I am not doubling up. I probably wouldn’t have anyway, but that cements it. Back to offense it is!
Lots of directions I can go with this pick. 2B or 3B makes the most sense from a roster construction standpoint, but I could certainly get away with a third outfielder or even my CI.
Second base offers Jonathan Schoop and Chris Taylor. Each benefitted from some batted ball luck last year, so I would be buying at a bit of a premium. Schoop has power and is in a good spot to accrue a healthy amount of R/RBI, which are weaknesses of my current roster. His OBP is terrible for borderline top 100 pick, but that doesn’t worry me very much after my opening picks. Taylor followed in the footsteps of teammate Justin Turner last year and broke out with 5-category production. I gradually became more and more of a believer in him last year after having picked him up as a flier in a non-RIBC league. I still own him there, so I will have exposure regardless of what I do with this pick.
At corner, the leading 3B contenders are Adrian Beltre and Nick Castellanos. You can’t talk about Beltre without mentioning his age (almost 39), but I can’t find much in his profile to indicate age-related decline. The biggest red flag are the injuries that took away a decent chunk of his season, as it could be a sign that his body is starting to break down. Or maybe not! Much ink has been spilled about Castellanos in the past 365 days, but all I know for sure is that he hits the ball really hard and gets a lot of extra base hits.
Yoenis Cespedes is officially an injury-prone slugger. This is already multiple rounds lower than he has gone in any RIBC draft since his first year stateside (2012). The offensive skills have shown no sign of deterioration, but he’s hurt yet again as I pick. Like Chris Taylor, I have a share in my other league. Yasiel Puig is my other outfield option. Last year he was a true 5-category player, but it’s always hard to know what to expect out of the mercurial Puig.
It’s not an RIBC draft if I don’t consider drafting Matt Carpenter, and yet, I’ve only done it twice. Feels like so many more than that! Anyway, stellar OBP, healthy power, and solid counting stats. But he’s another guy dealing with a little something at the moment, and a first baseman is low on the priority list.
I chose Schoop because of roster fit and position. I have maximum draft flexibility moving forward.
8.10 Adrian Beltre, 3B, TEX
Everyone I mentioned in my prior rationale was taken between picks except for Beltre. It was close for Cespedes and Carpenter as well, but people always jump on value in this league. I likely would have taken Cespedes.
As it is, I still like Beltre. We are at the end of a 3B tier, and I like Beltre to outperform his computerized projections. If I go in another direction, I can take the much younger, but massively less proven, Greg Bird. He’s been oft injured and isn’t having a great spring, but the upside if he puts it all together is substantial.
Among pitchers, I’m interested in the pair of Luis Castillo and Masahiro Tanaka. Castillo had such a fantastic debut, pairing a lot of strikeouts with an elite ground ball rate. Tanaka had a down year due to a bout of gopheritis, but only Corey Kluber and Max Scherzer managed to induce more swinging strikes. Tanaka legitimately gets hit harder than most other top pitchers, so it’s not like a rebound is fully guaranteed, but there are multiple elite skills elsewhere in his profile.
Hitter still makes the most sense to me, and I believe in Beltre more than Bird. He’s the pick.
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| 108 | twilson
ID: 2221181
Thu, Mar 22, 2018, 18:49
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9.07 Masahiro Tanaka, SP, NYY
Three closers and Castillo off the board on the turn. Tanaka and Bird are still there. Another starter I could pick is Rich Hill. He won’t throw 150 IP, but who cares if the innings he does pitch are so good? Ian Kinsler looks like a value at 2B. Awful BABIP last year, but it seems like a fluke. His ADP sure doesn’t think so, as he’s projected to go 30-50 picks from now.
To be honest, I’m kind of convincing myself that I should’ve drafted Hill. But at the time, I was mostly zeroed in on the pair of Yankees. And it seemed like a good time to draft a guy that has often interested me, but always fell at a time in the draft where other priorities were more pressing. SP2 it is.
10.10 Greg Bird, 1B, NYY
Bird and Kinsler both made it through the long turn, which gave me a decision to make. Both had the possibility of lasting another 12 picks, but neither was guaranteed. Kinsler more so than Bird, looking at their ADPs.
I did also check out the closer pool. My dad mentioned rumors about Greg Holland, but I couldn’t even find as much as a tweet from a semi-respectable source. I respect RocketRichard’s rationale for his pick at 10.12, but I decided it wasn’t the approach for me. Brad Brach was the alternative, and he’s good enough that he has a chance to hold the job even if Britton returns to nearly full form. If I didn’t have strong offensive options, I would’ve been comfortable taking him.
I wanted both Bird and Kinsler on my team if possible, but if not, I had to decide if filling my CI in the 10th round was too much of a luxury pick. I heartily believe in the Kinsler rebound, but I also love Bird’s upside. I like it enough that I am willing to wait on Kinsler and hope he makes it around, even though I have the nagging suspicion that he won’t because of one owner in particular.
11.07 Andrew Miller, RP, CLE
I was hoping Kinsler would be the pick here, but I had a feeling mmikulka would grab him on the turn. With him gone, there was no one available that really interested me. I spent a good chunk of time trying to build up enthusiasm for someone, anyone, but I was unable to do so. With nothing happening, I took a look at the other RIBC drafts. Some names toward the top of the list that drew my interest were Mike Moustakas, Kelvin Herrera, Eddie Rosario, and Andrew Miller.
Moustakas would give me more power and counting stats at a hit to OBP, which I can absorb. I expected him to go earlier, but he’s now fallen far enough to where he is a solid pick. Herrera is the last closer with a guaranteed opening day job with a past history of strong skills, but his 2017 was a clear step down. His spring training performance is doing nothing to assuage my fears. Eddie Rosario finally stopped swinging at absolutely everything, and it led to a bit of a breakout last year. There is regression risk, but his profile fits my team’s needs very well. At the time of the pick, he was dealing with arm soreness preventing him from playing the field. Andrew Miller is possibly the best reliever in baseball. Minimal expected saves, but the strikeout and ratio value he provides is certainly worthy of a pick here. Miller had a DL stint last year that impacted him for a time, but he finished the season healthy.
For all the value they provide, elite middle relievers outside of the endgame always feel like luxury picks. Enough so that I likely would’ve taken Rosario had he been healthy. That knocked him out, and I don’t have the necessary faith in Herrera to make the investment. That left two. I just see a higher floor and ceiling with Miller than Moustakas, so that is the pick.
12.10 Evan Gattis, C, HOU
My lack of excitement carried over to this pick. Moustakas and Herrera were taken, along with Leone, the new hot name in St. Louis. Maeda and Cesar Hernandez were also possible directions I could’ve gone here. Rosario was still on the board.
I looked through the pool at various positional groups. At MI, Semien and Jorge Polanco carried some appeal, but I decided to wait. I wasn’t thrilled with the pitching options, and no first basemen stood out. Evan Gattis drew my attention as a late opportunity to gain a PA advantage at catcher. I’m not the best manager at maximizing playing time, so any chance I have to moderate this weakness is welcomed.
In some ways, a mid-round catcher is another luxury pick. It is a lost opportunity to build depth elsewhere in the lineup. With that said, I really do like to get those extra plate appearances. Here’s hoping for enough health and performance out of Gattis to make that a reality.
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| 109 | beastiemiked
ID: 481162721
Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 00:22
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14.04 Brantley, Michael - CLE - OF
Injuries have sent his stock falling. If you assume reasonable health, 400+ ab's, he's a steal here. He's a contributor in every category and plays for a decent offense. Health is his only question mark. It seems he's still iffy for opening day but he just hit a homerun in spring training.
15.13 Wacha, Michael - STL - SP
As I was making my queue with 6 picks to go before me I was really hoping for Gausman. Gio also stuck out like a sore thumb as well. Would've loved to have either. Wacha was a decent consolation prize. Hoping for a sub 4 ERA with 8.5k/9, and 30 starts. Not a sexy pick but guys like him are needed to negate some of the riskier picks.
16.04 Duda, Lucas - KC - UTL
Can I take this one back? This was all Billy Hamilton's fault. I feel like he's going to kill my obp, Slg, and RBI so I'm trying to make up for it. Duda should do alright. Would love to see him hit 30 homeruns again but hopefully this year he turns in more than 50 runs with it. I'm hoping the Royals use him at DH as much as possible to give him rest. If I could've done this one over again I would've taken Wong or Marte.
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| 110 | mmikulka
ID: 237262718
Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 03:09
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14.13 Shin-Soo Choo, OF, TEX
Time for good ol' reliable Shin-Soo Choo! It feels like I draft him every year, but apparently this is only my 3rd time, so I must have been narrowly beaten out for him in the other years.
2016 was an injury-plagued mess for Choo, but I believed in a bounceback and took him in the 12th round last year. I was rewarded with a line of .357/.423 with 96 R, 78 RBI, and 12 SB. After such a solid season, you would think his price would drift back up, but he fell even farther this year!
Choo's 12% career walk rate has led to a .378 career OBP, which is 10th best among active players. These days, it will likely be more around the .360 area, but that's still valuable. I don't expect the double-digit SBs to repeat, but he should still rack up runs and RBI at an above average pace.
15.04 Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL
Last year, Carlos Gonzalez was SO BAD. SO. BAD. Sooooooooo *bad*. His OPS was a disastrous...
.762?
While CarGo was awful for the first 4 months, he really put it together during August and September. CarGo's explanation was that he hadn't been getting any sleep, and that he made a point to change that. That seems somewhat sketchy to me, but he had a .921 OPS after the All-Star Break, so something seems to have happened.
Was his great 59 game period a small sample size? Yeah, but so was his awful 77 game period. Gonzalez had always been viewed as a top-tier talent, and this is the first time he has been drafted outside the first 4 rounds since his first full season in 2010.
I don't see how CarGo could have realistically lost 11 rounds worth of ability. His K rate was exactly in line with his average, and he had the highest walk rate of his career. His ISO and hard-hit% dropped off a cliff, but is power really the trait that is most likely to drive his decline?
On April 19th, Gonzalez was taken for X-Rays and missed a game after being hit on the hand by a Clayton Kershaw pitch. He missed 9 games with a shoulder injury in June. Those seem like the kind of things that could result in a dramatic temporary loss of power. During the 63 games from April 19th until July 16th, CarGo had an ISO of .112. During the 59 games after July 18th, his ISO was .226. His hard-hit% rebounded similarly: from under 25% to over 40%.
Fortunately, Gonzalez is back with Colorado, playing half of his games at Coors Field. Even last year, the only situation Gonzalez was truly unusable was on the road against lefties (.284 OPS) (Yes, OPS, not OBP or SLG). Though it had never been this dramatic before, his massive L/R and Home/Road splits were something we already knew about, and they can be very advantageous with sufficient roster depth.
Even if his 2018 stats are similar to his 2017 stats, CarGo should still be useful as a platoon player. That said, I think there's a better than 50/50 chance that he'll be back to his old self, and I wouldn't be at all surprised by a .500 SLG and 100 RBI.
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| 111 | mmikulka
ID: 237262718
Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 04:06
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16.13 Dellin Betances, RP, NYY
Like last year, my starting pitching feels very thin, and I'm hoping to reinforce it with high quality relievers. Betances is coming off a down year, which is apparently a term that can be used to describe a pitcher with a 2.87 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 15.08 K/9.
Betances was wild, though, and lost his manager's trust by the end of the season. His walk rate jumped way up to an absurd 6.64 (he also hit a batter every 5.1 IP!!), but I can't imagine it will remain that way. He rebuilt his delivery over the offseason, and during Spring Training, he has 11 Ks and only 1 BB through 5.1 IP (with no hit batters).
With the Yankees' bullpen seemingly loaded, Betances is not guaranteed to get any saves even if Chapman gets injured or removed as closer. However, he should provide significant help to my ERA, WHIP, and (especially) K rate.
17.04 Jonathan Lucroy, C, OAK
He was really bad and then he was really good and then he was really bad and then he was really good and then he was really bad so maybe this season he'll become really good again.
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| 112 | Toral
ID: 0181517
Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 10:00
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15.12 Tyler Chatwood, SP, ChC
Last year I waited too late to pick my top 5 starters, so I thot I would overcompensate this year and settle them early. Would have liked to get Gonzalez (15.08) or Gausman (15.09) but missing them did not deter me from looking for an SP.
A pitcher with a high groundball rate, who put up 3.49 and 1.69 ERAs the last 2 years on the road and is leaving Coors Park, to pitch for a very good team, in front of a super infield defence, and has a 2.81 ERA with 18Ks in 16 IP, not in Florida but in the Cactus League, is attractive to me. I liked Michael Wacha, who was picked next, too.
16.05 Welington Castillo, C, ChW
Now we enter into the “pick up stix” portion of my draft. I just throw as many people into the queue as I can and pick one when my turn comes up. Preparing for this pick, I has 12 people in my queue, including at least 1 at C, 1B, MI, 3B, OF, SP and RP.
When it came time to pick I decided I needed a slugging type catcher who would contribute in SLG and RBI. There’s another possibility in this category still availanle, but he doesn’t seem to be healthy.
17.12 Ryon Healy, 1B/3B, Sea
Nice to have a CI who actually is a CI, plays both positions. Younger than some others considered here, could help with SLG and RBI. Actually considered him last couple of picks, but a prospect is murdering the ball at his position and I wasn’t comfortable picking Healy until his manager said that he would play no matter what.
18.05 Jose Pirela, OF, SD
In the middle of a threesome including Kepler (18.03) and Brinson (18.10), both queued and picked in that order.
Finally played up to his prospect potential last year. Batting .481/.559/.889 in ST, leading his manager to confirm that he would be an everyday player. Plays other positions – it would be really neat if he spent some time at 2B and got eligible there.
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| 113 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Fri, Mar 23, 2018, 16:23
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15.08 Gio Gonzalez, SP, WAS
I would have been okay leaving the draft with 3 SP (Kershaw, Quintana, Gray) and then keep an eye out for streaking and matchup based FA SP, but Gio is someone I have a decent amount of trust in. Last season: 2.96 ERA 1.18 WHIP 8.5K/9 15 W. He was consistent throughout the year with very good pre and post ASB stats and home/away splits. The advanced stats show that he should have been a good amount worse, but if he was able to put up those numbers over 200 IP, maybe there is something else that lies within, if that is possible. Pitching for the class of the NL East helps aid his case. At least I'm not picking him after his career year, because that was in 2012.
16.09 David Peralta, OF, ARI
I'm keeping tabs on wanting to fill my MI slot and there's 4 I have my eye on (Lowrie, Beckham, Castro, Harrison). I'm good with seeing with who remains until my next pick, and decide to take an OF here as I currently have 2. Peralta is...fine; pretty good OBP, passable SLG, a handful of SBs. Two years ago his OPS was 100 points higher at .893 in his first full season and he was a fairly hyped player, so perhaps there is room for improvement. He'll hit at the top part of the order vs RHP, but his splits are drastic enough where I'll want to bench him vs LHP when I have the luxury.
17.08 Jed Lowrie, 2B, OAK
Only Beckham out of the 4 MI I was looking at last round was drafted, but after taking closer looks at the candidates I decide that I value Lowrie a notch higher than the others. Beckham, Castro and Harrison all have weak walk rates so if their batting average struggles, their OBP will be a drain. Lowrie meanwhile had an 11% walk rate and last season's .448 SLG is comparable to a couple of the alternatives. Although he played 153 games last year, it was the 2nd most of his career as he can be injury prone, but I'm ok with risking the available FA agent options and playing the hot hand if he goes down. He should hit 3rd again in a supposedly improving Oakland offense, and an interesting if perhaps inconsequential stat is that during Matt Olson's best month of September where he had a 1.142 OPS, Lowrie also had his best month with a .930 OPS, so perhaps he was able to get some better pitches.
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| 114 | mmikulka
ID: 237262718
Sat, Mar 24, 2018, 01:29
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18.13 Addison Reed, RP, MIN
I was hoping that either Brad Boxberger or Keone Kela would fall to me. I think both of them are the likeliest options to close for their team on opening day. Unfortunately they were snapped up between my picks (along with AJ Minter). Reed was my next available option.
The current closer for the Twins is Fernando Rodney, who is 41 years old and a bad pitcher. ...well, everybody seems to think he is a bad pitcher except for a few MLB managers, who have allowed him to close each of the past 3 seasons despite a 4.52 BB/9, 4.12 ERA, and 1.33 WHIP.
Hopefully Reed will get a chance to take over. He has had spectacular results during the past two years, averaging 2.40/1.00 with a 9.7 K/9 and only 1.65 BB/9. Reed has been fairly lucky, so I expect his ERA/WHIP to regress a bit, but he should still help my team's ratios (especially if he pitches 75+ innings again).
19.04 Asdrubal Cabrera, SS/2B/3B, NYM
Ughhghgughghh. I hated making this pick so much.
I wanted to take Carl Edwards Jr. or one of several interesting OF options, and maybe I should have. One of my main goals for this draft has been to set myself up to get as close to 162 starts per batting slot as possible: doing so requires that I draft a 2nd viable SS. Asdrubal Cabrera is such a dull and uninspiring pick: by far the most exciting thing about him is his triple eligibility. It was extra disheartening to take him and then watch Carl Edwards Jr. and all 6 of my OF considerations get drafted before my next pick.
Cabrera has 7 consecutive seasons of 540+ PA, during which he has averaged .325/.430 with 71 R, 66 RBI, and 8 SB. The counting stats have declined slightly, but the rate stats line up almost perfectly with his projections.
Cabrera is not a great player, but he has been reliably decent. He should accumulate R and RBI at an tolerable pace without destroying my team's OBP/SLG whenever I need him to start at SS, MI, or CI.
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| 115 | Meatwads
ID: 221352816
Sat, Mar 24, 2018, 10:23
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17.06 Josh Hader, RP, MIL
Another in a long list of pitchers who've struggled with command as a starter, but excelled in his time as a reliever. I expect Hader to have a successful season setting up Knebel in Milwaukee. Really good ratios and 100+ strikeouts could be in the cards for him. I could see him being used in the "Andrew Miller role" as an occassional multi-inning reliever because of his starter background. He also has an outside shot at getting some saves, although I will acknowledge I made this selecton as though that won't occur. At the very least I'm hoping his ratios and high K/9 will help balance out some of my starters.
18.11 Kole Calhoun, OF, LAA
Nobody outside of the most die-hard Angels fans gets very excited when taking Calhoun. He doesn't profile as particularly great at anything, but one thing he does have going in a spot in the middle of the lineup and a consistent track record of health. When hearing the Angels lowered the right field fence about 10 feet for the upcoming season, Calhoun theoretically could be the biggest benefactor of that. I'm not expecting miracles here, but a solid overall addition who could play himself into a steady role if he produces.
19.06 Carl Edwards Jr, RP, CHC
As with my earlier selection of Hader, this is another former starting pitcher who has shown some electric stuff in a reliever role. There is some concern that his walk rate is too high, but even with that he still managed a 1.01 WHIP last season with a huge K/9 rate. In an ideal world the unproven (in the closer role) Brandon Morrow will struggle to hold the job and Madden will hand over the keys to my boy. I also made this selection with the understanding I may not see more than a couple saves. The ratios and strikeout rate give him stand-alone value as a setup man.
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| 116 | Matt G
ID: 17244159
Sat, Mar 24, 2018, 11:06
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14.16 Danny Salazar CLE SP - I've always been a "fan" of Salazar mainly because I've watched him kill the twins for the last few years, he always seems to just dominate them so his performance is fresh in my mind. He's a top 35 starter in my book and in round 14 that's what I was looking for. If he can keep his ERA and Whip under control he'll K 170 and win 13+ games. I would be very happy with that.
15.01 Michael Taylor OF Was People say he is a sleeper by after 19HR and 17SB last year there isn't much to sleep on. If he can remain healthy and that's a huge if, and possibly get 550PA in that lineup he's a 20/20 guy with the potential to score 100 Runs. Huge value in this pick.
16.16 Randal Grichuk OF TOR - I needed another OF at this point and he was best available IMO. Has some power upside but could hurt me in the OBP category, to be honest, that's all you will get in these rounds.
17.01 Sean Manaea SP Oak 140Ks in 158 innings, 12-10. His ERA over 4.5 and a whip over 1.4... About what you get there. He's still young and I've seen him creep up boards in other drafts. I needed an SP with some K upside and my queue kept getting emptied here.
18.16 Mark Trumbo 1B Bal Cheap power, going to hurt my OBP (sensing a theme) but should provide a nice bump in SLG. He's hurt and will miss the start of the season, honestly, he's a drop candidate for a hot unknown.
19.01 Alex Cobb SP Bal Opposite of Sean Manaea, I've always liked Cobb and I'm happy he signed, not happy he is starting the season in the minors but for his ERA and WHIP as well as potential 12+ wins, I'll take it this late. If he makes 25 or more starts then I'm very satisfied with this pick.
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| 117 | jdrenbarger
ID: 62256
Sun, Mar 25, 2018, 13:25
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16.07 Giolito, Lucas – CWS – SP
My second “high upside” SP pick. Only 23, considered one of baseball’s best SP prospects just a couple of years ago, and pitched well during his short second stint in the majors late last year (3-3, 2.38/0.95 in seven starts). Has also pitched reasonably well in ST this spring; best case is that he continues to mature this year and I get something along the lines of 3.50 / 1.25 / 7K/9IP … I’d be very happy with that here.
17.10 Harrison, Josh – PIT – 2B/3B
Still no 2B rostered and Lowrie going two picks before mine pretty much, at least in my mind, forces my hand. I’ve always liked Solarte, but have no idea how much he’ll really play this year in Toronto. Brad Miller’s somewhat intriguing to me mostly because I drafted him last year in the 9th round and I still think there’s something there (albeit not shown at all last year), and I’m generally not one to draft the (he’s coming and he’s gonna be great!) Kingerys of which there are at least a couple every year. Also like Joe Panik among the choices that remain, but believe he’ll still be around for at least a couple more rounds. Harrison’s been passably ok for this point in the draft – rebounded to a .771 OPS last year, 10 or more SBs four years in a row, and also 3B-eligible. Probably not a full-time player again this year, but a decent first 2B pickup after waiting this long.
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| 118 | Toral
ID: 0181517
Sun, Mar 25, 2018, 14:01
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19.12 Steven Matz, SP, NYM
Some comments about Matz from fantasy magazines; “His upside, his skill seems unlimited”, “A healthy Matz is one of the game’s better left-handed starters” “has proved to be at least a No. 2 starter when healthy”.
Some more comments from the same sources, “penciling in even 100 innings isn’t safe’, “he is about as high risk of an arm as there is in baseball”.
20 Ks in 18 IP in ST, and heard him say that he is pain-free throwing the curve. Ron Darling says he’s in for a big year, and I’m sure he wouldn’t lie to us.
20.05 Darren O’Day, RP, Bal
Reported that he will have a piece of the save situation at Camden Yards.. Puts up good ratios in limited innings.
21.05 Derek Fisher, OF, Hou
Decided last time it was safe to put off the OF problem for another round. Now we will see whether I was right about that.
Spent an undue amount of time deliberating whether to put Fisher or Nicky Delmonico first in my queue. Eventually decided Fisher, but the issue was moot after Delmonico was taken at 21.08. So much of my ratiocination proves unnecessary.
Fisher has shown 5-tool skills in the minors, but bombed in 150+ Pas last year. Said to be expected to have playing time in left field last year. Astros were facing Chris Sale in a game so I decided to watch looking for an omen. Sale didn’t last to pitch to Fisher, but Fisher lined a rope to right first time up, so I hit “Submit Pick”.
22.05 David Dahl, OF, Col
Unlike Fisher, Dahl did not make the major league team. Starting in AAA But I didn’t expect him to be on the roster to start when I drafted him. I expect him to be brought up one way or another and pummel the ball in Coors. Whether I can hold the roster spot open for him is another question.
I had a brainstorm for a backup plan if Dahl had been taken by the time I came up – draft Dansby Swanson at MI and move Nunez to OF! Ruined when Swanson was taken at 22.03 but I still stand in awe at the plan’s elegance.
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| 119 | jdrenbarger
ID: 62256
Sun, Mar 25, 2018, 14:14
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18.07 Cron, C.J. – TAM – 1B
I’d harbored hopes of picking up either Healy or Gurriel as my CI/second 1B here … both go, along with McMahon, within the five picks following my last one. Briefly considered Mauer and a couple of guys still not yet drafted, but settled on Cron in the hopes that he has a chance to play full-time by moving to Tampa and finally breaks out at age 28. More hope than realism for sure – has only exceeded 400 AB (407) once in his four years in the majors, has a career .756 OPS (with never better than a .325 OBP), and there’s already talk of him sitting some days against RHP even though he’s hit them better than he’s hit LHP over his career. I’ll see how April goes for him; like every other pick at this point, he might not be around on my roster for very long at all.
19.10 Panik, Joe - SFO – 2B
I’ve targeted Panik and Asdrubal Cabrera at 2B for several rounds now given what else there is to choose from and Cabrera is now gone; I show Panik with a 25th round ADP in other drafts, but he’s averaged the 19th round in our other three leagues and I’m unwilling to wait any longer. 27 years old with a career .345 OBP (.753 OPS) across his four years in the majors, near-.800 OPS against RHP over the past three years, and was on his way to his first 140+ GP season last year until sidelined by a concussion. Isn’t showing any ill effects of the concussion this spring, should play nearly every day, and should hit first/second against RHP … I’m fairly optimistic he’ll exceed all expectations if he can only stay healthy for the entire year.
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| 120 | kdl212
ID: 2213123
Sun, Mar 25, 2018, 15:47
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18.14 Willie Calhoun, OF, TEX
Calhoun came up the Dodgers organization as a 2B, but only has OF eligibility, and has been in left field all spring. When asked what position he plays, Calhoun reportedly responded "I hit third." Upside play, with a service-time delay.
19.03 Kyle Barraclough, RP, MIA
Brad Zeigler can't possibly hold the closer's job for long, right? Not sure if Barraclough would be next, but with only a single closer on my roster, I wanted to grab a couple next-in-line guys with high strike-out rates.
20.14 Yasmani Grandal, C, LAD
Last year, I went at least 2 weeks without a catcher on my roster, and for good chunks of time was streaming at the catcher position. It worked good enough, so I didn't even look at the catcher board until round 20 came up. There were still more than a half dozen acceptable catchers available, with no reason to see any huge separation between them, so I convinced myself I should wait. But both Dodger catchers were still available, and both have upside as hitters. Indeed, combine them, and you just might get 80/80/6 out of the catcher slot, with decent ratios. I also considered a [nondrafted/nondrafted] catcher combo, and figured I could have waited until 22/23 to get them, but the upside there didn't match the Dodgers duo. So I went with the experiment.
Not sure I can stomach 2 rosters spots on catchers. If I didn't already have Calhoun, I would picked Dahl here.
21.03 Austin Barnes, C, LAD
See rationale above for 20.14 Yasmani Grandal. I don't expect another .900 OPS from Barnes, but a high OBP, a few steals, and the second base eligibility might make him a fun guy to own.
22.14 Brandon Drury, 2B, NYY
Wanted to get a starting pitcher here, but my four targets were picked (Corbin, Teheran, Felix, Mikolas). I know everyone here takes this seriously, and knows their stuff, but with folks drafting all over the place at this point in the draft, I was surprised that one of them didn't make it to me. No other starter seemed worth a roster spot, and I guess I'll just be doing my usual streaming. Looked, then, for a backup MI/CI player, and settled on Drury. He is starting at third, and if he hits, might stick all year. I don't expect much, and won't be surprised if he's gone from my roster by April 20th.
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| 121 | holt
ID: 328115
Sun, Mar 25, 2018, 20:09
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17.15 Gurriel, Yuli 1B HOU
Still needed a CI to start, thought Gurriel was by far the best available based on his .299 .332 .486 numbers last season and expected playing time. It was thought that he might miss the first couple weeks of the season due to surgery to his hand but now it's sounding like he'll only miss the first 5 games of the season due to suspension. I don't think there was any other conveibale way to go with this pick.
18.02 274 Reddick, Josh OF HOU
Reddick is my #5 OF but slots in as my Util hitter as of now. I could have used a C or an IF but I think Reddick was a lot better hitting option than any of them. His OPS was at .847 last season and he hits in a productive lineup. It came down to him or Dickerson in almost a coin flip situation. Can't believe Dickerson was still available til 20.09.
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| 122 | Matt G
ID: 17244159
Sun, Mar 25, 2018, 21:49
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20.16 Matt Shoemaker SP LAA Needed a starter and he was the best on the board at the time, he has good years and bad. Hoping for a 2016 repeat, rather than 2017.
21.01 Joc Pederson OF LAD He's only 25, hits for a little bit of power and gets on base at a decent clip, just needs the playing time IMO.
22.16 Daniel Vogelbach 1B SEA I usually don't take too much stock in spring stats, but he is raking and very well could start in Seattle. Grasping at straws here.
23.01 Matt Harvey SP NYM complete shot in the dark here, velocity is up supposedly, could he be back? Upside pick only.
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| 123 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Sun, Mar 25, 2018, 22:09
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18.09 Jaimer Candelario, 3B, DET
At this point in the draft I scan the depth charts and make note of the late round targets. Candelario had a strong Tigers debut last season showing a good walk rate which correlated with what he did in the minors. He's had a very strong Spring and may hit second.
19.08 Carlos Gomez, OF, TB
I'm probably irrationally pleased for this selection. Gomez had a small bounce back year last season as he raised his OPS north of .800 for the first time in 3 years, and he will add 15-20 steals while hitting in the middle of the order.
20.09 Corey Dickerson, OF, PIT
I used to consider Dickerson one of the better hitters in the game, and then his production not surprisingly dipped after moving away from Coors Field. It looked like he was on the path to resurgence last season with his Pre ASB .903 OPS but then the wheels fell off the in the second half. If he matches last season's overall OPS of .815 that's very serviceable for this league.
21.08 Nicky Delmonico, OF, CWS
Scouring for warm bodies with starting jobs + potential upside. I picked up Delmonico down the stretch last season and he impressed with a .373/.482 slash and a 14% walk rate.
22.09 Tyler Lyons, RP, STL
With Gregerson beginning the year on the DL, Matheny said Leone or Lyons will be the closer to begin. Leone probably has the upper hand being a righty, though Lyons did notch 3 saves for the team last season. Worth a flyer to see how it shakes out.
23.08 Steven Duggar, Util, SF
He may be the everyday CF with his .908 Spring OPS.
24.09 Jorge Alfaro, C, PHI
Alfaro had a strong 29 game stint last season with his .874 OPS. He did that with a .420 BABIP though and his walk rate isn't good, but he does have plus power and he's had a great Spring.
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| 124 | beastiemiked
ID: 481162721
Sun, Mar 25, 2018, 22:58
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18.04 Kela, Keone - TEX - RP
The Rangers have yet to name a closer and probably won't. Kela is believed to be the leading candidate. More than likely he will get less than 5 saves for me but there's a chance he gets the first save and runs with the job. Worth the gamble in the 18th round. I considered Brinson with this pick but decided against a rookie that will probably drag on both OBP and SLG(definitely a chance of upside there though).
19.13 Lynn, Lance - MIN - SP
Most projections hate him. Everything was screaming not to take him. I probably should've looked elsewhere but Lynn is a beast and someone to root for. If anyone has something to prove this year, it's him. He's over a year removed from Tommy John so I'm hoping he can beat out the negative projections for him. His division is light on the offense so that should mildly help him. Will not be afraid to drop him if he starts off poorly.
20.04 Miller, Brad - TAM - 2B
I probably could've waited on Miller but I needed a MI that could potentially be helpful in slg. His projections show him at a .750 OPS which isn't great but not a huge drag. He struggled with injuries last year that most likely hurt his numbers and his projections for this year. He's 28 so there's still some upside left in his tank. He should be good for some SB's and hopefully some counting stats. If he struggles he'll be dropped for the first sign of a better MI. Forsythe was considered but I think once Turner gets back he'll be playing less than Miller. I also drafted him way too high last year so he's on my not again list.
21.13 Moran, Colin - PIT - 3B
Moran is a former 1st round pick that looked like he was going to fizzle out before last year. He "retooled" his swing and found power. He's apparently going to be the starting 3b for the Pirates. I'm not excited by this pick but he provides my team with depth and gives me an extra bat at the beginning of the year. I considered Swanson with this pick but then I saw his 2nd half last year, zero homeruns 2 sb's in 189 at bats.
22.04 Kahnle, Tommy - NYY - RP
This will probably be a rotation spot for me. I might hold Kahnle longer but I think I'll need the spot. Holding middle relievers that have no shot as a closer is just not a good idea in this league with a limited bench. I'll probably wait until I find someone I really want or he pitches 2 out of 3 days before I drop him. I would've taken Swanson if he made it to me. Also, McCann would've been my pick as well if he lasted. I consider Michael Folty but looked at his early season schedule and decided to pass.
23.13 Iannetta, Chris - COL - C
3 picks left and I need a catcher. Iannetta is old, going to turn 35 this year. I'm not confident in him staying healthy. He shouldn't drag down ratios especially when he starting in Colorado. I'll probably end up doing the catcher shuffle this year. Unfortunately, Colorado has 7 away games in 8 days before they play in Colorado. Probably should've checked that schedule before drafting him. At this point though, most guys will end up back on the FA wire so not that big of a deal either way.
24.04 Flaherty, Jack - STL - SP
After I autopicked Iannetta I wasn't too sure where I was going next. Then I saw Wainwright was hitting the DL and Flaherty was probably going to take his spot. Bingo. Only problem was it took a long time to get back to me. I thought I was going to miss out on him due to the news being broke during Holt's pick. Luckily he made it back to me. Obviously, he'll need an extended stay on the DL by Wainwright or another injury to stay in the rotation. However, he's got great stuff and if he comes out like he did in ST he might just delay Wainwright coming back. Decent high upside pick late in the draft. I considered one other unnamed player.
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| 125 | mmikulka
ID: 237262718
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 01:51
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20.13 Kirby Yates, RP, SD
I had 6 OF who I liked, but I passed them over to pick Asdrubal Cabrera, hoping to take any two of them with these next two picks. Then I watched as Carlos Gomez, Cameron Maybin, Mallex Smith, Jesse Winker, Corey Dickerson, and Curtis Granderson all got drafted. I briefly considered Scott Schebler here but decided there were a bunch of other OFs I tolerated similarly to him.
Kirby Yates had been somebody I had been targeting for a while, and I figured I might as well take him now. Yates seemed to turn a corner last year, with a 13.98 K/9 and a 3.02 BB/9. His rates had always been good, but more in the 12 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 range, which is what he is generally being projected to regress to this year.
Brad Hand seems to be a stable closer (though that's what people thought about Brandon Maurer last year). It would be nice if the Padres have two relievers with double-digit saves for the 3rd consecutive year, but I drafted Yates for the Ks and ratio help and that's all I'm expecting from him.
21.04 Jordan Montgomery, SP, NYY
I considered OF here, but decided there were enough stragglers that I'd still have options available for my next two picks. After all, basically everybody had just drafted an OF, wiping out my previous queue.
The only remaining player that I specifically didn't want to miss out on was Ben Zobrist, and there are enough playing time questions that he was being drafted very late and I expected him to be available.
Jordan Montgomery stood out to me at SP, and my team is potentially very shallow there. He had a great first half of the year, and I'm hoping he can build on it. He has 5 viable pitches, and his solid K and BB rates from last year are backed up by his minor league numbers. He's in a tough division and pitches in a hitter-friendly park, though his team is expected to put up a lot of runs and win a lot of games. 170 innings of anything approaching last year's 3.88/1.23 would be great here.
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| 126 | filthy
ID: 382372319
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 02:31
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18.12 Yadier Molina, C, STL
My queues can take me on some crazy rides some years. I couldn't resist bumping up Yadi after finding myself scoff at a headline predicting he'll contend for MVP again this year, followed by him hitting 2 HR the next day. Spring training, but still, respect. Still thought this would be more prep for the 19th round than 18th. The OF that I kept letting slip did not slip far enough. Reddick and Calhoun being the lead targets.
I like the Hader pick right after I chose Boxberger last time around. Missing McMahon might be nothing or might haunt me all year. Kepler was on the radar right behind Reddick and Calhoun. Soler was close to the radar. Minter was looking mighty tempting. Had been eyeing Solarte for a few rounds. Candelario was starting to climb my queue fast. Cron was entering radar. This was a real painful stretch to me. Really figured I set my queue to land a CI or OF but that queue was pillaged hard.
Wanting some Zunino insurance at some point, so it's not tragic by any means. Really invested heavily in the Cardinals is unintentional but I like what they like clearly. Molina felt like the best hedge for Zunino to me and I couldn't see him lasting another turnaround. The hunt for OF and/or CI depth and pitching depth continues. With time running out.
19.05 Lonnie Chisenhall, OF, CLE
I had Maybin surviving top of my queue but just couldn't bring myself to it. Felt like I need more pop than speed at this point. Still hoped Maybin would slip but just wasn't ready yet. Eyeing Madson and Barraclough for a little bit but rigged my queue for an OF at this point due to options getting too slim for my liking. Chisenhall could be a surprise gem that stands out as we get closer. Granderson too. Travis and Barnes were guys I had been filing away for later, but not really needs of mine by decision time- worthy mentions that seem worth the mild shout out. Chisenhall took the cake at this point due to the potential if he can stay healthy. He's shown flashes of strong hitting in the majors, just needs to master the grind. Starting out with expectation of steady AB in a strong lineup is the hardest thing to ignore. And closer to prime age than Granderson is what separates those two in my final decision.
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| 127 | filthy
ID: 382372319
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 02:49
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20.12 Curtis Granderson, OF, TOR
Still need an OF or CI to cover for Turner. And a whole lot of pitching. Six picks to go. Dickerson and Pederson were creeping up the list. Madson was starting to get closer on to the radar but didn't make it. Granderson was ahead of the remaining options from last time around due to some potential for spark in the new environment. Talks of batting leadoff. Didn't seem to be used much in LA so it's hard to judge him on that. His history says he might be a decent pick here.
21.05 Alex Reyes, RP, STL
This is where I found out Bumgarner broke his pinky and would miss a couple months probably. Big part of my strategy was based on using a lot of relievers, but having a true Ace to anchor was expected to be a key element. On the fence about add starters or keep adding relievers to fill out the roster. Could still use another CI/OF but the big focus is pitching right now.
Still deep in relief options for what I was aiming to add, and not seeing a lot of starting options that feel worth switching gears yet. Alex Reyes is a wild card. That I shouldn't be risking but I can't resist. Possibly 100 IP out of bullpen mostly. Slim chance he might close if the rest all flop. But mostly has potential to dominate even if he's a swingman. Sneaky way to add some elite innings is the hope.
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| 128 | mmikulka
ID: 237262718
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 02:54
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22.13 Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, CHC
Good old (used to be) reliable Ben Zobrist!
The OFs in my queue were Nicky Delmonico, Matt Kemp, and Gerardo Parra. Kemp and Delmonico got drafted. I was a little nervous that only Parra remained, but Zobrist was my primary interest, and the 3 teams drafting before my next pick were already in decent shape at OF.
Zobrist's dual eligibility gives me an extra level of backup at most positions when used in combination with Joey Gallo (3B/1B) and Asdrubal Cabrera (2B/SS/3B).
Besides the eligibility, this is also a bit of a sentimental pick: like Shin-Soo Choo, it feels like I've targeted Zobrist every year. This year, he looks to be in rough shape, with major questions about both his playing time and ability level. Though Zobrist is getting old, I'm attributing much of last year's difficulty to his wrist injury. The Cubs have a lot of OF/MI who could be mediocre or get hurt, so if Zobrist plays well again, I expect a path to 120+ starts. After all, he is just 1 year removed from being named the World Series MVP and racking up 94 runs and an .832 OPS.
If Zobrist bounces back at all, the Cubs lineup is stacked, and the R/RBI should be there. He's a lock to have a walk rate over 10%, and his .251 BABIP is in line for positive regression.
If Zobrist really is done for good, then it should be clear pretty early, and he will lose playing time and be an obvious drop. I'll hold out hope for one last good season.
23.04 Gerardo Parra, OF, COL
The demotions of McMahon and Dahl re-opened left field for Parra. With all the Rockies' flashy young OF/1B talent, Parra will probably have to play well in order to start all season, but he needs to play well in order to stay on my fantasy team anyway.
There is potential for that: Parra had an .852 OPS in the first half last year, and his 71 RBI in only 425 PA would have translated to 100 RBI if he had reached 600 PA. I'm not expecting anything like that, but Parra was a mid-round pick 2 years ago, and there are worse places to play than Coors Field (29 of them).
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| 129 | mmikulka
ID: 237262718
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 03:07
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24.13 Liam Hendriks, RP, OAK
Hendriks has been an above-average reliever. More importantly, he appears to be the clear handcuff to Blake Treinen. If Treinen starts off smoothly, there is a good chance that I will drop Hendriks, but with a less favorable SV situation than I'm used to, I want to have some insurance.
25.04 Jose Bautista, OF, FA
Rumor has it that Bautista is close to signing with either the Rays or Braves. If he signs somewhere and lands a starting role, then I'll give him a shot. More likely, I'll be dropping Bautista on opening day and using this slot for spot starts.
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| 130 | filthy
ID: 382372319
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 03:25
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22.12 Bud Norris, RP, STL
Still trying for another committee option or two with the last picks. Gregerson officially starting year on DL, with a general unproven crew overall. Norris could sneak his way in if the others falter early. Steckenrider is a nice pick that wasn't heavy on the radar but was starting to climb for me. Mauer was a thought for awhile but just coulnd't quite go for him. Not counting on much here but didn't have anything jumping out for SP/OF/CI options enough to skip the ever so slim chance that Norris might snake an early save or two.
23.05 Jake Junis, SP, KC
Little bit light at OF and quite light on IP is the feeling so a bit of urgency to target SP here. And possibly the following 2 picks as well. Still wouldn't mind another reliever or two. But focus on SP for now. Junis was starting to stand out a while ago and now really catches my eye among the other options I'm looking at. Was starting to consider Hirano and Parra but they went just before me. Felt pretty set on SP anyway. Reynaldo Lopez, Foltynewicz were considered. But Junis showed some excellent control late last year and seems to be on point so far in spring. May tread lightly with him at first. Liking the potential.
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| 131 | filthy
ID: 382372319
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 03:37
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24.12 Jake Diekman, RP, TEX
Still talks that he might take control of closer job in Texas makes it hard to leave him down in the queue. Only one OF stands out, still undrafted with only a few picks remaining. Couple starters but mostly relief options stand out for me here. Diekman seems worth a chance this late in the draft. Likely to stream a few of the others I'm considering early enough in the season anyway.
25.05 Reynaldo Lopez, SP, CWS
Lopez, undrafted OF, Pivetta and a bunch of RP rounded out the queue. Potential for big strikeouts had Lopez and Pivetta standing out, with Lopez getting the edge due to feeling that he will have better stats elsewhere. Shot in the dark to finish things off.
Still a lot of grinding remains but the first hole I'll leave when injuries start happening is innings pitched. Can recover those later. Not ideal but worth it to at least try to get in the closer race and try to avoid losing too many GP on offense.
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| 132 | Matt G
ID: 17244159
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 08:44
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24.16 Albert Almora Jr OF ChC .338 OBP, 8 HR in 299 AB. If he would only get regular playing time I think he could be really productive. And I'm hoping he emerges as a starter this year.
25.01 Wilmer Flores 3B NYM More power here, the Mets want to get him in the lineup and are having him try the OF a little. Could be a super utility guy. Hit 18HR in 336 ABs laster year, hoping for position flex and some power here
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| 133 | blue hen
ID: 5254718
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 10:04
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9.14 Delino Deshields, OF, TEX
No doubt about it, I wanted Delino Deshields with this pick. I actually have him ahead of Billy Hamilton, since he'll take a walk and is more likely to keep his job. He's going to be a great source of steals this year, and I'd been targeting him for several rounds. Only pause I took here was because my boo Kyle Schwarber was still available, and because I needed a second SP. On that note...
10.03 Jon Lester, SP, CHC
I love Lester, but took Deshields previously because there were so many pitching options for the next pick. My preference was Arrieta, but would have been fine with Lester, Bauer, Hill, Samardzija, or McCullers, who all went within the next 15 picks. Lester's going to be great - I heard he's even working on throwing to first base!
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| 134 | blue hen
ID: 5254718
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 10:09
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11.14 Dinelson Lamet, SP, SD
After the run of SP lately, my queue was depleted. But I was still in need of SP, especially after Herrera, Arcia, and Bird went after my last pick. I figured I'd take a chance on Lamet - high strikeouts, great ballpark, not going to get injured before opening day... well, two out of three ain't bad. On a lighter note, his name is similar to "lament" in case this pick goes up in flames.
12.03 Shane Greene, RP, DET
Greene's not the best pitcher in the world, but at this point, he has the Tigers' closer job, and seems like he might hold it for a while. There's always a guy like this who everyone thinks will lose the job, but he holds it into late summer. Here's hoping it's Greene this year, especially since Kimbrel was my only other closer at this point.
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| 135 | blue hen
ID: 5254718
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 10:13
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13.14 Blake Parker, RP, LAA
See 14.03 Cam Bedrosian
14.03 Cam Bedrosian, RP, LAA
The Angels saves this season should be divided between 13.14 Blake Parker and 14.03 Cam Bedrosian. Both pitchers have recent seasons of dominance (Cam in 2016, Parker in 2017), so between them, I figure to have an elite closer this year. I like Cam for the long term, but I'll take either one for now - far prefer this to Rodney/Reed, Ziegler/Barraclough, or other timeshare situations. This is actually the second league in which I drafted Parkosian.
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| 136 | blue hen
ID: 5254718
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 10:18
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15.14 Chris Davis, 1B, BAL
How the hell is Chris Davis still out there? That was an actual thought when I put him in my autopick queue about 10 picks beforehand. Davis has had some down years, but the power is clearly still there, and I sorely needed a CI at this point. Very happy to have gotten Crush this late. Far prefer him to Cargo, Neil Walker, Hanley, Duda, Hicks, and other hitters chosen around this point.
16.03 Jose Peraza, SS, CIN
Note: This pick was made seconds before getting on Star Tours at Disney World. The long line allowed for plenty of research. Moments earlier, the Reds announced Nick Senzel would play second base, meaning shortstop was freed up for... Jose Peraza. Still in need of some steals, and needing a SS to pair with stud 2Bs Happ and Moncada, Peraza seemed like a perfect fit at the time.
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| 137 | blue hen
ID: 5254718
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 10:21
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17.14 Jorge Soler, OF, KC
This is the year. This is the year Jorge Soler ups his game and becomes a star. We're talking 30 homers, some steals, solid batting average, ton of playing time, and the last time you'll get him in the 17th round. For real. This year. This is the one.
Or not.
18.03 Max Kepler, OF, MIN
Kepler has a huge range of outcomes this year. That's what you're looking for at pick 18, a guy who either becomes a solid contributor, or finds the waiver wire quickly. With Kepler's youth and pedigree, he seems like a decent gamble, but hits lefties about as well as I do.
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| 138 | blue hen
ID: 5254718
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 10:23
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19.14 Mychal Givens, RP, BAL
Really just looking for solid ratios here, tons of strikeouts, and possibly saves, hedging my Brach pick in another league. These guys are usually on the waiver wire during the season, but in round 19, that's kind of the point.
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| 139 | blue hen
ID: 5254718
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 10:26
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20.03 Mallex Smith, OF, TAM
Some year, he is going to steal 50 bases. This year, it looks like there are a few potential paths to playing time, and if he gets it, this could be that year, where he steals 50 bases. With Deshields and Peraza, I have a few SB guys, but could certainly use another.
21.14 Patrick Corbin, SP, ARI
Been eyeing him for quite a few rounds. Looking at round 16, he's a good fit for the set of players taken there. If this humidor thing is real, and he avoids injury, this is an absolute steal.
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| 140 | blue hen
ID: 5254718
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 10:30
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22.03 Dansby Swanson, SS, ATL
Will the real Dansby Swanson please stand up? Unless he's dreadful, he's going to play a lot, which seems like good insurance for Peraza. He's fit the profile to a T, coming up strong, then struggling. Guys like that usually figure it out quickly - hopefully it comes this year.
23.14 Brandon McCarthy, SP, ATL
*if healthy
24.03 Hunter Renfroe, OF, SD
I had a bunch of sleepers teed up for this pick. Last minute, I moved Renfroe to the top of the queue. What if he hits a bunch of homers? It's going to be difficult to find a guy like this on the wire during the season, so I may as well draft him now. Most of my sleepers are SP, and I'm pretty set there after Corbin and McCarthy.
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| 141 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 11:45
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25.08 Leonys Martin, OF, DET
Martin's season best OPS is .698 and is coming off a .513 campaign, but if he can just carry over his Spring .944 OPS for a full season to match his 30+ SB ability, he'll be a nice player. It seems that Gardenhire has 2 spots in the batting order decided, with Miguel Cabrera hitting 3rd, and Martin is the other at leadoff.
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| 142 | Toral
ID: 0181517
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 11:53
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23.12 A. J. Ramos, RP, NYM
Ah, the sure sign that Opening Day cannot be far off –- time to load up with relief pitchers, whether next-in-line for saves, in the mix, or innings eaters with good ratios.
Anthony Swarzak had been on the top of my RP queue for quite a while, but before this pick I decided to review my options. What about Ramos? Swarzak is the better pitcher, but Ramos is a “proven closer” and might be next up for saves.
I decided to put Ramos first, which was a questionable decision – but made no difference when Swarzak was taken at 23.11.
24.05 Emelio Pagan, RP, Oak
Opening Day not only not far off, but getting closer and closer waiting for this pick to come up.
I notice a trend this year to pick, and pick higher, more relievers who aren’t closers, nor even necessarily next in line for saves, but who will put up lots of innings with a good K/9 (see Swarzak, Anthony mentioned above). Makes sense to me, with fewer starters putting in even 200 IP.
Pagan is my dollar-store version of this type of pitcher. 56/8 K/BB ratio last year, mid-90s fastball plus slider variously described as “effective” or “mediocre”, 11/0 K/BB ratio in spring training.
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| 143 | Toral
ID: 0181517
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 13:07
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25.12 Adam Engel, OF, CWS
Juan Nicasio, presumptive next-in-line to one of my closers had been at the top of my RP list. Taken at 25.07 But that was OK, becuz the day that Derek Fisher was picked, he sprained his ankle. So I needed an OF, hopefully not for long.
I had a sleeper type at the top of my queue, but thinking it over I decided to go for Leonys Martin. Leading off, should steal bases, an OBP/SLG minus but whomping the ball at spring training. Taken at 25.08.
More research. Saw that Engel had won the starting CF job for the White Sox. This guy can really fly and will steal bases – if he can get on base. Hit OK in Double-A once, hitting well in ST, probably won’t stay on my roster for long. May not hold the job for long either.
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| 144 | jdrenbarger
ID: 482301319
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 15:19
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20.07 Forsythe, Logan - LAD – 2B/3B
Simply looking to fill holes here, with an eye on attempting to maximize GP at every position other than catcher (and to come pretty close there). Need a 3B more than anything else right now, and primarily considered Forsythe and two still undrafteds. Forsythe’s 2B eligibility is a plus, and his 2015-2016 average line of 72/60/8/.347/.444 would play well at this point in the draft. 2017 wasn’t nearly as impressive, though (56/36/3/.351/.327) … I’m certainly hoping for a rebound. Playing time early in the year, even if he struggles, seems somewhat assured with Turner’s injury; will have many opportunities to produce even hitting 8th for the Dodgers.
21.10 Steckenrider, Drew - MIA – RP
My obligatory shot in the dark at a really special RP (Kahnle) or maybe-if-everything-breaks-right-closer-sometime-in-the-future (Madson/Ramos/Steckenrider); I’ll only start with nine pitchers and don’t ever intend to carry more than 10 unless a couple of my top guys get injured. Madson goes after my last pick, Kahnle really has no path that I can see to close at all, Ramos has been (at least for me) “Fernando Rodney light” too often in the past, and Steckenrider seems pretty clearly #3 right now in the Marlin’s pen. Steckenrider’s certainly the trendy pick here, however – Ziegler’s now 38 and put up 4.79 / 1.55 / 4.97K/9IP last year, Barraclough (aside from already being taken) walked one for every two he struck out last year, and Steckenrider punched out 14.29 for every 9IP last year during his short initial stint in the majors. Best case is that he has the closer’s job within a couple of months … more likely is that the Marlins continue to prefer giving Ziegler an empty set of bases (remember Bob Wickman at the end of his career?) and they keep their two power arms for high leverage situations before the 9th. Certainly worth a couple of months to watch, with hopefully a decent amount of Ks while that plays out.
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| 145 | jdrenbarger
ID: 482301319
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 15:49
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22.07 Happ, J.A. - TOR – SP
3.53 / 1.31 and nearly 9K / 9IP last year, good for #173 overall on ESPN’s player rater and #52 among SPs. Highest rated pitcher on my board aside from Porcello and, I think, a real bargain at pick #343 … 160 IP / 4.00 / 1.30 / 160 K doesn’t seem unreasonable even at age 35.
23.10 Foltynewicz, Mike - ATL – SP
Would’ve taken Porcello last round had Happ not been available, but I’m hoping for a little more upside with my last SP pick … drafted Porcello in the 11th round last year and didn’t see any hint at all of his 2016 anomaly returning while holding onto him for the entire year. Folty’s another trendy pick … a great spring holding out some promise of his relatively fast start last year continuing through the entire year this time around … he’s worth 3-4 starts to see if at least last year’s start – if not finish - can be replicated.
24.07 Frazier, Adam - PIT – 2B/OF
A tossup for me between Frazier and Renfroe, with the latter’s selection four picks before mine deciding it. My first-ever 2B handcuff (with Harrison), gives me extra OF depth to perhaps eventually allow me to move Bruce to CI, and is a high-contact hitter who’ll steal a few bases. No real power to speak of, but put up a .743 OPS last year, with 9 SB, across 406 AB and could be a real steal here if he can gain a starting role.
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| 146 | jdrenbarger
ID: 482301319
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 16:11
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25.10 Morales, Kendrys - TOR – UTL
Thought about a second catcher here, but there will always be several of those available. I’ve seen Morales projected as a $10 auction player in a few places, and certainly think he’s worth a shot for my last pick. 550+ AB for each of the past three years and, while his production has fallen over those years, he still put up a 67 / 85 / 0 / .308 / .445 line in his first year in Toronto. Not having a great spring, but could still hit as high as 4th in the order and will likely be given every chance to prove he’s still an every-day player.
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| 147 | Meatwads
ID: 221352816
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 17:20
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20.11 Nick Williams, OF, PHI
He's flashed some upside in the minors and his half season in the majors last year. Projected to bat 5th behind Hoskins, at least against righties. I plan to platoon him. Plays in a hitters park and the advanced stats suggest he hits the ball hard. I would expect him to get into my lineup a decent amount, with some chance he helps quite a bit. Hopefully he can keep his OBP at respectable levels.
21.06 Gleyber Torres, SS, NYY
The quality vets had thinned out considerably by this point, so I decided to take a stab at someone who could theoretically be called up relatively quickly. His shortstop eligibility, combined with his eventual multi-position, hitters park, great lineup, elite prospect status, all played a factor in the decision. The obvious risk is he takes too long to come up and I have to cut bait. Or he simply struggles his first season. This deep in the draft, with no backup SS, I'll take the gamble.
22.11 Felix Hernandez, SP, SEA
One of my favorite picks. Living near Seattle most of my life, I've had the opportunity to follow his entire career. From what I can gather, the fantasy world has mostly given up on him. Since he'll only be turning 32 this season, pitches in a pitcher's park, and was an elite ace for a decade before the last couple seasons, I think the pick is a no-brainer. Most people getting picked this late won't remain on rosters. None of them have the track record of Felix. I genuinely believe he's being dismissed too quickly. It didn't cost me much to find out if I'm right.
23.06 Nick Senzel, 3B, CIN
In the past I've taken elite prospects earlier, so even though this is the second player I may have to wait on, at least it's nearly 400 picks deep instead of the middle rounds. It's clear to me he is ready to hit in the majors, so I'm hoping him getting sent down is just a matter of the Reds getting an extra year of team control. The news that the Reds are willing to try him out at SS and 2B could be a sign they want to get his bat in the lineup. Considering I don't have a backup at 3B and he may gain multi-position for me, in a good hitters park, I could've done worse. Worst case I cut to stream or pluck someone hot off the free agents.
24.11 Jose Reyes, 2B/SS/3B, NYM
I made this pick based on his 3 positions. He was also worth rostering last season, as he was 5th in the NL in steals. He's projected to play a super-utility role this season for the Mets, and I will be satifified if he remains on my roster in the same role. If he can play 4 days a week while I wait on Gleyber and/or Senzel, his value as my 24th round pick will be satisfied. Easy cut if he's struggling or not getting enough playing time.
25.06 Russell Martin, C, TOR
I pretty much hate catchers, so I end up with one of the lower level ones more often than not. Martin has a decent OBP, is projected to play in a hitter's park, in the middle of the lineup, and at least has a track record of some success in his career. I probably would've taken Alfaro here but he was selected a few picks before. I'm not expecting any miracles here. It will be a bit of a surprise if he stays on the squad.
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| 148 | kdl212
ID: 2213123
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 21:07
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23.03 Yoshihisa Hirano, RP, AZ
Arizona hasn't named a closer yet, and maybe they prefer Archie Bradley in the Andrew Miller role, and are willing to roll the dice to start the season on a veteran closer who major league hitters haven't seen before.
24.14 Joe Musgrove, SP, PIT
When I saw Cishek go immediately after this, I wanted a do-over, if only because it'll take 3 weeks to see if Musgrove is worth it, and by then, it'll be clear if Morrow actually has the stones to close for the Cubs. Probably inconsequential, but bad thought process going starter instead of reliever at the turn.
25.03 Nick Pivetta, SP, PHI
With Cishek gone, it was down to Kendrys Morales or an upside, strikeout pick in Pivetta. In the 3 minutes of digging into Morales, I didn't like what I saw - almost all of his production in the last 2 years has been against lefties. He's a weaker version of Brandon Crawford when he hits against righties (280/400 last year; 307/423 the year before). And it looks like (I hope) Smoak has replaced him in the cleanup spot. But I was really close to drafting Kendrys. As for Pivetta, he needs to improve in multiple areas to even be rosterable, but maybe he does.
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| 149 | holt
ID: 328115
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 21:28
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19.15 Peacock, Brad SP HOU
I got some pretty good use from Peacock last season (3.00 ea 1.19 whip 11K/9 in 132 IP). Like last year, he's in the bullpen until one of guys in the rotation goes down. I would not have been very pleased if someone had nabbed him in front of me.
20.02 Travis, Devon 2B TOR
With Daniel Murphy starting the season on the DL I need a solid hitter to back him up. Travis will be 27 this season and based on past performance I think something .345/.450 with 10 sb is a reasonable projection as long as he avoids injury. He'll be hitting lead-off or second and I might up finding playing time for him even after Murphy returns. That or trade him for some steals!
21.15 Rodriguez, Eduardo SP BOS
Rodriguez isn't expected to miss much more than 1 turn in the rotation so I'm not totally sure why he's still around.He's still only 25, has a career whip of 1.29 and got his K rate up to 9.8 last season. I'd rather draft someone like this than washed up vets with 1.40 whips. There is no guarantee of anything with this pick but there is considerable upside.
22.02 Chirinos, Robinson C TEX
I've been looking at catchers for so many rounds now, but it's finally to the point where there is only one left on my draftable list. He's slated for substantially more playing time season. The Rangers intend to sit him on every day game following a night game, and no more than 4 games in a row, so barring injury that should put him well over 400 ab's. Chirinos put up some pretty impressive numbers last season in his 309 PA's (.360/.505). He does a good job getting on base and the power is legit. The main negative on him is his age (34) but it's the 22nd rd so who cares? Wilson Ramos and Chirinos were my two primary C targets in this draft and I'm relieved that I didn't screw it up.
23.15 Minor, Mike SP TEX
Shot in the dark. Minor was off to a very good start of a career as a starter til that got derailed 2014. He came back with a very solid season as a reliever last season. Texas isn't the best place to be a pitcher but I just want to hang on to Minor for a while and see how it shakes out. Last I checked he had a spot in their rotation. Might have Senzel or Iannetta if they had lasted. Didn't really have time to research but Minor was a player I had in mind all along for a late dart throw.
24.02 Dietrich, Derek 3B MIA
I'm kind of short in the corner infielder dept. As in, I have no one to slot in at CI on opening day due to Gurriel's suspension. I don't know how long Dietrich stays on my roster but he is solid enough to at least be a short term option. He has utterly destroyed the ball this sprind, fwiw, .370 .444 .674., and, Miami's offense is so lame this season that he's probably going to be in the two or possibly three hole. He's still only 28, and it wouldn't be unheard of for a career year to happen for him this season. He gets a LOT of HBP in addition to the walks and had an OBP of .374 in 2016. Additionally, my only other conceivable options for a CI were Flores who isn't really a starter to open the year and an undrafted rookie with very low ceiling, so Dietrich it is.
25.15 Duffy, Matt SS TAM
Duffy has has streaks of fantasy usefulness for me in the past. He'll gain 3b eligibility soon and steals some bases here and there. in the two hole, if he gets hot with the bat, maybe he does something to make me want to keep him on my roster. In the short term, he is someone I can plug in in case Gregorius has the day off. He's only 27 and should have a long leash in Tampa, you would think.
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| 150 | Bmd
ID: 825715
Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 22:11
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Gonzalez, Adrian, 1b, NYM
Pretty much a placeholder. I wanted Leonys Martin but he got picked a few picks before I could pick. Since Gonzalez doesn't play on Friday I'll probably be dropping him for someone who does.
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| 151 | blue hen
ID: 5254718
Tue, Mar 27, 2018, 09:40
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25.14 Chris Stratton, SP, SF
I had a bunch of players, mostly starting pitchers, in my queue, and this was the one that came out on top.
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