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0 Subject: RIBC 2018: Draft Recap

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Mon, Mar 26, 2018, 21:28

RIBC Managers: This thread is for your (optional) overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say.

1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Non-managers are also free to post comments or ask questions.
1blue hen
      ID: 5254718
      Tue, Mar 27, 2018, 10:27
1. I have the same strategy every year, in every league. Get guys who walk and hit home runs, avoid catchers and starting pitchers like the plague, and get some closers. With Stanton and JDMart as the first two picks, we were in good shape. But then Kimbrel, Ray, and then Lester and Lamet soon after, we lost track of things a bit. I did manage to finish the draft without a catcher, so there's that.

2. Again, Stanton and JDMart was a fantastic start. The turn with Moncada and Happ was pretty sweet- love both those guys. Other guys I was happy to get where I did: Sano, Soler, Deshields, and McCarthy.

3. During the draft, Holt impressed me. He's always among the best managers. I didn't love the second half of his draft, but the first half was pretty great. Drafting between Holt and BMD was tough. BMD is another team that impressed me a bunch.

4. The early closer runs always surprise me. And even though we're the best Rotoguru managers, I always get surprised when the guy I want is taken right before my turn.

5. I like this team, so hard to say I'd do anything differently, but there are a few picks I'd change and some sleepers I'd reach for.

Top picks by round:
1.15 Holt - Aaron Judge
2.15 Guru - Cody Bellinger
3.12 Toral - Edwin Encarnacion
4.08 Slizz - Yu Darvish (this was a weak round)
5.04 Mikulka - Shohei Ohtani
6.02 Holt (tie) - Chris Archer
6.08 Slizz (tie) - Rafael Devers
7.13 BMD - Billy Hamilton
8.02 Holt - Yasiel Puig
9.13 BMD - Kyle Schwarber (I took Deshields here, close 2nd)
10.01 Great One - Jake Arrieta
11.02 Guru - Lance McCullers
12.04 BMD - Evan Longoria
13.02 Guru - Mike Clevinger
14.05 Toral - Matt Chapman
15.07 twilson - Todd Frazier (I took Chris Davis here, better than Frazier)
16.04 BMD - Lucas Duda
17.01 MattG - Sean Manaea
18.07 Renbarger - CJ Cron
19.09 Slizz - Starlin Castro
20.01 Great One - Cameron Maybin
21.01 MattG - Joc Pederson
22.11 Meatwads - Felix Hernandez (I took Dansby Swanson here, better than Felix)
23.08 Da Bomb - Steven Duggar
24.01 Great One - Jake Odorizzi
25.04 mikulka - Jose Bautista

2GO
      ID: 330592710
      Tue, Mar 27, 2018, 10:31
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

My goal here was IF, hitters first. Emphasis on positional eligibility when players were comparable. Due to short benches, no DL. Machado accomplished that, but have some regret over taking Max and not a slugger like Freeman or JD Martinez. I’m usually pretty good at finding pitching late and seems like I forget this every year. So later in the draft I found myself reaching on hitters to make up for this. But I also need to keep in mind that in a league this deep, everyone feels like they don’t have a enough of something.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Max is on the trading block for a slugger. Favorite? Well Kingery might just be a lottery ticket that changes this team dramatically. So I guess he’s the easy choice. With extra 2B now – Cano will be on trading block for a slugging 1B/OF type as well.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I like Slizz’s squad. Already working on just who I might trade him Buxton for… maybe Kris Bryant! But seriously I think everyone picks fine at the top – but you win RIBC but cashing in in the double digit rounds.

My favorites include –

Guru – Bour 10th
Jd – Rich Hll 10th
Meatwads – Conforto 11th
Slizz – Aaron Sanchez 12th
Toral – Taillon 13th, Matz 19th
BH – Bedrosian 14th

And even though its 8th round – BH rolled the dice on Sano in the 8th and it should pay off now. A risk I couldn’t stomach. But was very close to pulling the trigger a few times.

GO! – Pujols last pick of the draft! He’s not THAT bad… is he? No risk at this point.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

Nothing particularly surprised me. I thought closers were even more reasonably picked this year than last year’s RIBC AAA where they were all gone before double digit rounds.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Wouldn’t have picked Cano had I knew #1 I’d get Kingery and #2 he’d be playing pretty regularly to start. I just wish I stuck to the plan and remember to sit on pitching for a few more rounds. Wouldn’t have picked the shiny toy of Max starting at me on the back to back. Because 30 picks later it was slim pickings on hitters.

Also… I still don’t have an eligible 1B except Posey lol… Braun, Hanley, Pujols will all be picking up that eligibility early this season. So a waiting game to mix and match there. Once they get eligible I can move McCann.

3slizz
      ID: 39225119
      Wed, Mar 28, 2018, 16:49

1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

My goal was to go Kris Bryant & Jose Ramirez / Francisco Lindor and build around them. I originally planned on pitcher at 3, but Abreu was too much value to pass up. Bogaerts at 4 would’ve been awesome as my entire infield would be complete!!! Based on expert feedback, pitching gets bad...fast, so one needs to draft a stud early to help keep up with the Jones’. That mentality pigeon-holed me into Darvish at 4 (not complaining as I think he will be great in Chicago).

For the most part I was able to execute my plan. Plenty of picks that I think will exceed draft value. That said, I thought I had a rock solid team that was slightly slow. After the dust settled, not only am slow but I have little to no saves! Closers went super early, some cases 2-3 rds early. I generally don’t like taking a position with such minimal impact to the overall bottom line outside of Jansen & Kimbrel.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Favorite picks by round
Rd 1 - all of them
2.11 - Rendon: batting in the middle of the lineup and a near mirror image of Trout from a pure hitting standpoint as per fangraphs.
Rd 3 - Jansen / Kimbrel: Given the early run on closers and their premium ratios...
4.07 - Bogaerts: SS, at the top, is historically weak. Bogaerts was hitting slightly better than his 2016 levels pre-injury and if he picks up where he left off, instant profit. Also bitter I missed out on filling my infield: Abreu, Ramirez, Bryant, Bogaerts. Nola as an honorable mention.
Rd 5 - weak round...not a huge fan of any of them...so Ohtani
Rd 6 - Moncada, Albies, Hand. My plan was to go Hand in the 7th but man the closer run was crazy! In this format, Moncada could be godlike. Chicago Sun Times has me thinking 30/30. At worst, Moncada will pad the stat line without hurting the ratios. By comparison, Kingery 2017 AAA had the nearly the same OPS as Moncada’s 2017 MLB. Albies has gained a ton of momentum since January and his ADP had skyrocketed. He will hit 12-15 HR and steal some bags at a premium position.
Rd 7 - While I like Polanco, no way I was taking him this early. Not a huge fan of the talent in this rd, but would say Lorenzo Cain will be the best.
Rd 8 - Castellanos & Sano. Casty can just flat out mash. Is this the year he ascends? I think so. Sano - fortune favors the bold. BH took a risk with the looming suspension and it paid off. Sano, like Gallo, is awesome in this format and with no suspension BH created a profit.
9.14 - Delino DeShields. By far and away the best pick in the draft. Barring injury, he’s gonna be a top 40 player and will be the best ROI hitter in the draft.
Rd 10 - Trevor Bauer and Josh Bell. Bauer and McCullers are my 2018 version of Robbie Ray and Paxton. Bell is sneaky 30 HR value.
Rd 11 - Andrew Miller and McCullers - Unbelievable stuff. So mad I have 0 shares. Miller will provide elite ratios so he’s better than most starters.
12.02 - Moustakas
Rd 13 - Clevinger, Richards, & Taillon. Did you know Jameson Taillon and Jose Berrios are identical...only separated by 90 picks on average. Richards nearly 2 rds less than his ADP...
14.14 - Jon Gray. Juicy K’s and may even succeed in Coors a la Ubaldo 2011.
15.05 - Jose Martinez. If he gets a full time role no reason he can’t be great.
16.14 - Ketel Marte. Among '17 exit velo gainers, the +2.9 mph of Ketel Marte was second highest in MLB. Coupled with these gains in BB/K over the final three months (0.58, 0.77, 1.10 BB/K), Marte was a target I thought I could sneak in late! 🤦🏻‍♂️
17.06 - Josh Hader. Ratios. Woof. That and BH’s analysis on Soler...haha
18.13 - Addison Reed. Two words - Fernando Rodney.
19.16 - Scott Kingery. Easiest profit pick in the draft.
Rd 20 - Cameron Maybin and Mallex Smith. Both should get 30+ sb and that’s profit this late in the draft. Just have to accept the void in on base...
Rd 21 - Reyes and Montgomery. I think we all forgot about Reyes. He’s awesome. Gio Gonzalez: (141 ADP) 201 IP, 2.96 ERA, 3.93 FIP, 8.42 K/9, 3.54 BB/9
Montgomery: (228 ADP) 155.1 IP, 3.88 ERA, 4.07 FIP, 8.34 K/9, 2.95 BB/9. Profit!
22.11 - King Felix for the reasons Meatwads stated.
23.08 - Duggar. Has a job and everyday AB. Should be a decent ROI.
Rd 24 - Odorizzi and Dyson. For the reasons GO stated. I knew of the Souza DL at the time of my pick, I just chose to ignore it in hopes Robles goes Kingery on us! Dyson will be a serviceable sb machine.
Rd 25 - yuck but Kendrys. Should be in the middle of Toronto and is probably the only player who won’t hurt you.

Keep in mind:

From 2014-17, we've had six players post first-round value with a 195+ ADP:

2014: Brantley, Rendon, Dee Gordon
2015: Keuchel
2016: Villar
2017: Judge

Recent history says 1-2 will do it this year. Who will it be?

do over - see #5

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Judging from my analysis. Blue Hen...his hitting is great and his speed is elite, so he will have no problems killing that side of the coin. Kimbrel is a great start and if his starters hold up, will be very difficult to beat.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

The run on closers and chasing saves. I only have Morrow as a result. Don’t want that to be the reason I lose...

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

The snakes left me snake-bitten!

Pass on Greinke in favor of a hitter (Moncada). Why?

Taking Greinke set a domino effect off which prevented me from getting McCullers / Bauer. I would have more speed (Moncada, tremendous middle infield, and some pop) and one of the pitchers I really wanted. Sure, I could’ve taken them but it would’ve prevented me from getting some very valuable (& needed) hitting depth.

Also, Boxberger as a hedge on Bradley. He was there for the taking...I even thought about it, but kept passing as I thought no way they pull Archie! Dumb move on my part because he would’ve been easily expendable had that been the case. Total amateur hour...

Moncada, Bauer / McCullers & Boxberger >>>>> Greinke, Hicks. Domino. Effect.
4kdl212
      ID: 342241312
      Wed, Mar 28, 2018, 17:55
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I wanted Bryce Harper this year, wherever I picked outside of slot #1, and I got him. He's going 400/600 this year, and I wanted it on my squad. I also set out to get 2 top 20 starters in the first 5 rounds this year. I'm not sure I accomplished that, as my top 2 starters are injury-risk Carlos Carrasco and not-yet-stud-ace Carlos Martinez. Otherwise, I placed more emphasis on drafting OBP and less emphasis on drafting sluggers since everyone is now a slugger, and spring training stats suggests the trend is only going to continue. Mission accomplished on OBP thanks more to later picks than early picks - Dexter Fowler, Neil Walker, Ketel Marte after round 12 should all give me .350 OBP.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
My favorite picks for my team are Ketel Marte and Jon Gray. The guys I didn't pull the trigger soon enough on that I wish I had: Conforto, Sano, Charlie Morton, Shoemaker, Bauer, Belt, Dahl.

Wish I had do-over -- Jorge Polanco in the 12th round (suspended 5 hours after I drafted him) and Justin Smoak in the 8th round (when Brandon Belt was still available 70 picks later, I was really wishing I had used my Smoak pick on anything else).


3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Mmikulka's draft board looked very similar to mine (besides Ohtani), as he was regularly picking guys just before me that I was considering, and picking guys right after that I almost drafted. Holt has a well-rounded roster. Blue Hen's hitting looks great.


4. What surprised you most about the draft?
That many manager's still draft as if positional scarcity is a thing. But this worked to my advantage. I think my Suarez, Josh Bell and Dexter Fowler picks in rounds 9/10/13 will produce much more than any trio of middle infielders drafted in rounds 7-13.


5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Maybe, but for all I know those changes will end up for the worse, and I've managed to stick around despite having a good draft only once in seven years (judged by the end of the year), so I'm going to lie in the bed I have made for myself and struggle to compete despite my draft selections once again.
5beastiemiked
      ID: 481162721
      Thu, Mar 29, 2018, 00:41
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

No real plans. I was on vacation during the first couple of rounds so probably did less research then I should've. In the past steals has always been my black hole. I probably over compensated for it this year. Overall, I'm not that happy with my draft. So many of the guys I wanted went a round before I was going to take them.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Flaherty in the 24th. That's about the only pick that I think I got steal. Of course, he could be in AAA in a month.

Do overs, a lot. I would've taken Stanton over Rizzo because it sounds like there's a chance Rizzo would've made it back to me. Even without that I probably should've taken him over Rizzo.

Sano over Hamilton. I had Sano ready to be picked but chickened out due to possible suspension. My draft would've been a lot different with this pick as later picks such as Alonso and Duda would've waited another round or picked someone else.



3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

Guru's and Meatwads. Most all teams look good(better than mine).



4. What surprised you most about the draft?

That very few guys slip through. I think Gausman and Gio were the two guys that slipped that got picked right before me. Chris Davis slipped too but I can see why people passed on him. Other than that no real guys that should've been picked earlier.

The only other thing was seeing guys that will start in AAA being drafted earlier than what I would've picked them. Bench spots in this league are so precious. Holding a guy that is accumulating at bats in AAA is a tough pill for me to swallow. Of course, Kingery blew my strategy up with that early contract, nice pick.


5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Buy an app to track players available.
6Matt G
      ID: 17244159
      Thu, Mar 29, 2018, 10:25
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

-My Strategy as always is Best player available, according to my ranks, I allow myself to stray a slot or two but not much further. AFter I feel I have a good core, I start to look at positions which I can get value from, guys I believe should have been drafted higher but weren't, or positions that are getting scarce and I should get a player in that position that makes sense.

I don't feel I executed well, I don't like my draft too many questions.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Sean Manaea in Round 17, Alex Cobb in Round 19 and Michael Taylor in 15.


3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
The first 10 picks on KDL212's team were the best collection of talent at that time, it's unfortunate about Samardzialphabet and Polanco, but I see he is employing the 2 catcher from same team strategy...

I like Meatwads team, he took at least 3 guys I wanted (Baez, Fulmer, Calhoun)

Beastiemiked has the best All around team IMO. Flaherty in round 24 could be the steal of the draft.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
How fast it went, we motored through...

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently? I would try to stick to my strategy a little more, and I'd reach a little. I felt that I could wait on some players and then they were gone 2-3 picks before my next pick, so I was close but I had to reach earlier.
7filthy
      ID: 382372319
      Fri, Mar 30, 2018, 02:51
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
General blueprint is to draft my 5SP/5RP, and usually only 2-3 of those in the first 10 rounds. Tendency to pick near the end in closer race. Tougher time for me to find 3B, 1B, SS, 2B and even C in season than OF or pitching, so I usually draft my infield first. A slight twist in the thinking this year though...
Last year in AAA, my friend and fantasy nemesis Graydog went with a mostly relief strategy that I really liked, and thought it would've done better if he had the time to manage it regularly. I just thought it needed an ace, but also 1 or 2 other high ceiling starters in case of injury. Then get tickets to the closer lotto to fill out the staff. Flexibility to add innings throughout the season or just roll with punting W/K if dominant ERA/WHIP out of the gate and a couple early closers emerged. *Anyone that didn't happen to notice, Graydog ended up going with zero starters this year, even more extreme, and I think I really like it, a lot.*

My plan went a little too perfectly, even accounting for drafting an extra starter to account for injury. Ended up adding an extra starter late due to the injury happening to my ace, and happening before the draft was even through. Still gotta expect another pitching injury before Bumgarner returns. Got a deep infield core and gonna be scraping a bit at outfield and pitching, but I really like some of these guys to improve their stock fast. Some of these closer lotto tickets are already paying off. We'll see in a few months when most of these guys turn to pumpkins but for now this feels like one of my better RIBC drafts in a few years at least. Not a high bar but I'll take it.


2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Some of my 'max' picks were early and only by a couple picks. But one real bargain and possibly my favourite pick was Luis Castillo. I had been liking him a lot last summer and made mental note to try to own him this year in most of my leagues. Almost wanted to reach on him at pick 101 and managed to get him at 133. Also Greg Holland at 156, paying off earlier than I hoped. Although nothing guaranteed there, the track record inspires hope. Hindsight obviously helps but check the rationale, this is about as good as I was dreaming for. Pick 229 Jose Martinez seems like he's going to get the playing time and could pay off right away. Pick 261 Brad Boxberger another late relief pick gaining value early.

Do-overs. Maybe a bat like Hoskins instead of Bumgarner and an arm like Nola instead of Turner at 3/4. But they weren't hurt when I drafted so I wouldn't do that differently. Willson Contreras instead of Jean Segura in the 5th could've been a game changer. I really like the Zunino reach and the upside on Segura for this league though. Strongly considered ranking Conforto above Avisail Garcia. Which turned out fine for right now but maybe not in a couple weeks. Almost had Blake Snell ranked above Danny Duffy, that one might feel dumb fast. Not sure Boxberger would've made it back to me if I waited, but McMahon is one that I was targeting. Boxberger would've been picked over Molina or missed altogether. Still a coin flip there I guess. Reddick or Calhoun actually were ranked higher than McMahon before Boxberger bumped in there. Add them to the potential regrets, my outfield might be rough. A couple names that I would've liked to have drafted even this closely in hindsight, but overall nothing I'm regretting heavily yet.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I like Da Bomb's draft the most. Holt, BlueHen and BMD also had drafts that look nice.

Seems fun, just going backwards, my fave picks by round: 25- LMartin, 24- JFlaherty, 23- MHarvey, 22- JMauer, 21- PCorbin, 20- CMaybin, 19- JPanik, 18- JReddick, 17- JLowrie, 16- LGiolito, 15- JMartinez, 14- BSnell, 13- MClevinger, 12- ASanchez, 11- MConforto, 10- TBauer, 9- RAcuna, 8- MCarpenter, 7- IHapp, 6- OAlbies, 5- WContreras, 4- RRay, 3- KJansen, 2- ARendon, 1- MTrout!

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Surprise free.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Same plan with slightly different ingredients would be nice. Who's to say the alternate path would've turned out much better. Others will get hurt and slump as we go. Hopefully not all guys from my squad!

Good luck all. Thanks as always to Guru for running this!
8mmikulka
      ID: 237262718
      Sun, Apr 01, 2018, 03:03
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
As usual, my plan was to wait on the positions (SP/OF) which tend to have more depth and more viable free agent additions. Last year, I drafted my SP in rounds 5/15/17/22/24, and then finished 1st in every pitching category except wins. Though I hit on my Strasburg/Ray/Gio Gonzalez picks, I attributed much of my pitching success to my relievers. I expected that closers and elite middle relievers might be valued more highly this year, so I drafted a pair of SP earlier than normal and countered that by waiting until the 12th round for my first OF.

I tried a bunch of experiments last year, and obviously that was a net positive. Drafting players with extreme upside in the mid/late rounds worked very well: though players like Matt Harvey were useless, the successes of Thames, Puig, and Robbie Ray more than made up for it. Some aspects of these experiments did not turn out very well. I decided to stream catchers last year, which had some of the benefits I expected (and a few I wasn't expecting). Unfortunately, those benefits were minimized by the fact that my C position was an OBP/SLG disaster until I traded for Willson Contreras. I wanted to make sure I had at least one flexible roster slot again this year, but ideally not at catcher. The free agent options were just so bleak once the Manny Pina types eventually got scooped up. SP/OF initially made the most sense, because there are far more players to choose from than other positions. As the draft progressed, it was also clear that SP/OF fit my team's needs the most.

Another thing I was mediocre at last year was maximizing my plate appearances. I had an .810 OPS but finished barely above average in R/RBI. Ohtani seemed like a golden opportunity to help with this, and I planned to get some other players with dual eligibility.

These plans worked out pretty well, though with a few hitches. The main problem was that my late-round OF targets got stolen from me at a much higher rate than in previous years. This left me with a shallow and fairly unreliable OF and an imbalance between R/RBI. I drafted a few players with dual eligibility and I have 2 backup options at most positions. Unfortunately, this flexibility is already being limited by the combination of my already thin OF depth and the Souza and Kinsler injuries.

I also have fewer saves locked up than normal: I usually make sure to finish with at least 2.5 closers, ideally 3. This year, I only have Jansen and Treinen. My team probably could use a few more RBI, and I'll be in bad shape with SB if Trea Turner doesn't get me 40+. As a whole, I feel like my team is shallower this year, albeit with more offensive upside.

What I like the most about my roster is the same thing that I liked last year: my weaknesses (SP/OF, RBI) are the easiest positions and categories to find on the waiver wire. Like last year, I need a few of my big upside players to pop (Gallo, Cueto, CarGo, Lucroy), and I need 2 or 3 good free agent acquisitions. If I have reasonably good injury luck (off to a bad start) and make enough of the right choices in free agency, I think I have a decent chance to repeat.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
For stability/return on investment, I like Carlos Santana in the 7th, Kyle Seager in the 8th, and Brandon Belt in the 13th. For upside, I like Cueto in the 10th, CarGo in the 15th, and Lucroy in the 17th.

My 24th (Liam Hendriks) and 25th (Jose Bautista) round picks are already off my roster, so I guess I mildly regret them. Ohtani doesn't look great after his awful Spring Training, though I'm not too worried yet. There are a bunch of players that I drafted high (Gallo, Ohtani, Trea Turner) that I can see potentially being busts. I also regret not reaching for Boxberger and Kela despite correctly predicting they were likely to start the season as closers.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I really like Guru's team if he is able to find a 3B. Da Bomb has a lot of potential and really good OF depth, though all 3 of those closers could easily be out of a job within a month. Holt's team looks great if they can get decent production out of C/SS. Twilson will contend if he finds a solid MI and another closer. If Restok79 adds a batter or two and Machado gains SS eligibility, that team will also be in excellent shape.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
How quickly the late round OF options dried up. I usually take at least 3 OF in the late rounds, and I've always had at least 2 or 3 targets still available after I'm done. This year, I still needed 2 and all my targets were gone.

I was also surprised that there were still quality MI available late in the draft. Neil Walker and Ben Zobrist really jump out to me, but there are even 1 or 2 undrafted MI who interest me.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I don't think I have any major regrets that would cause me to tear it down and start over. Most of what I would change with the benefit of hindsight happened in the mid/late rounds.
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