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Subject: RIBC 2019: Draft recap Posted by: Guru - [330592710] Mon, Mar 25, 2019, 00:01 RIBC Managers: This thread is for your (optional) overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say. 1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? 2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over? 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? 4. What surprised you most about the draft? 5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently? Non-managers are also free to post comments or ask questions. | |||||||
| 1 | slizz ID: 532371213 Tue, Mar 26, 2019, 12:06 |
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? I never plan on getting 1.01 or 1.02, so I did my mock drafts from the 10-12 spots fully expecting to select there. To me, that is the most advantageous spot as you are in the middle of all the "runs" as well as get a super high quality player rounds 1-2-3. Especially Round 2 - Trevor Story / Freeman consistently in rd 2 from that general area. That said, I got lucky and hit the Trout lottery and somewhat stuck with my strategy from 10-12 with respect to my target outfielders. My plan or strategy entering the draft was as follows: 1.01 - Trout 2.16 - Best Pitcher Available (projected Bauer / Syndergaard based on mocks). Gerrit Cole was a pleasant surprise. 3.01 - Kris Bryant / Anthony Rendon / Rhys Hoskins (Bryant #1 because I have zero shares and he was consistent Rd 3 / 4 in Tout Wars / NFBC). Rendon I own in G20. Hoskins - Zero shares, but batting behind Harper. Rendon so no complaints 4.16 - Best starting pitcher remaining. Was consistently getting Taillon / Clevinger here. Paxton fell...and I pounced. 5.01 - Michael Conforto (huge reach...or so I thought). Conforto will ascend into a top 20 pick next season. MJD sniped me and I never expected to be sniped on a guy who was going around pick 92. Segura was the selection due to SS scarcity. Turned out to be the right one considering I loaded up on 5 OF by rd 12. 6.16 - Needed a closer at this point in the draft and was hoping for Vazquez, Kimbrel, or Leclerc. Leclerc was the pick. First 6-7 picks were pretty much scripted...Only "miss" was Conforto. 7.01 - Aaron Hicks for reasons stated in the draft analysis. As much as I love Hicks, I should have considered going Closer, Closer in Leclerc / Kimbrel. 8.16 - Profar. The one name I ended up with in every draft. Ironically, I got him 10-12 picks after his projected ADP each time...this was not planned, just happened to work itself out that way where I needed an infield position and there he was... After that, I had a list of guys that I specifically targeted pre-draft and was able to get a majority of them:  So yes, I was able to execute as planned. Beyond that list, I was able to get most of my bullpen arms. 2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over? Maybe go closer / closer at the 6/7 turn...Sacrifice Aaron Hicks and draft Craig Kimbrel instead. I would have then shifted my focus to Manny Margot as my 5th outfielder and, in theory, have more saves. Furthermore, I completely forgot Ty Buttrey when drafting Taylor Rogers. While Rogers is a superior arm, he fits my G20 squad better. Buttrey is a better bet for a 1 year saves bump should Cody Allen falter. 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? You could say a good thing about all the teams. Gotta grind out the season and see where the chips fall...SANFORDORS has a balanced squad which features speed without sacrificing power. Got a hell of a late rd steal in Goodrum who has some serious Javy Baez potential! I thought maybe I could float him one more round because Yonder Alonso and Trey Mancini were still out there... As far as picks go...my favorites by round (to 15): Rd 1 - Bregman / Judge Rd 2 - Story Rd 3 - Snell, Bauer, Thor Rd 4 - Conforto!!!, Mondesi Rd 5 - Turner, Berrios Rd 6 - Vazquez, Gallo, Cutch, Myers Rd 7 - Devers (early, but love his upside), Odor - one of 5 20 / 10 guys before age 26) Rd 8 - Wheeler, Moose, Hicks Rd 9 - Peralta, Rosario Rd 10 - Darvish, Bell, Tanaka Rd 11 - DeJong, Eloy Rd 12 - Cesar, Mazara, Musgrove Rd 13 - Laureano, Meadows Rd 14 - Reyes, Buxton Rd 15 - Paddack (didn't like it at the time...but with a rotation spot locked up, hell of a value) 4. What surprised you most about the draft? How many people used the rotowire app rankings and ignored value relative to ADP. It became "get your guy" and ignore ADP. MJD! Got me with Conforto and totally trolled me with the Musgrove pick. While he was the earliest to draft Musgrove, he sent me a message letting me know that he knew I was going Musgrove rd 14 (he was right) based on my G20 "reach" (wasn't a reach as Musgrove had some late helium on the ADP front from 230's to high 180's). I had 2 guys on my "must have" lists. Conforto was #1 and Musgrove was #2. I got neither. I can live with losing Conforto becasue there was 0% chance I was taking him in Round 4. I figured that his universal ADP (late 80's at the earliest / 6.06 RIBC ADP...with MJD's 4.14) would have provided good value and he would be first off the board in Round #5 by my squad, wherever I picked. As for Musgrove, I just have to tip my hat to him. He got his guy, was first to do so, and got the best of me... 5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently? Nope...best of luck to all in the upcoming season! | ||||||
| 2 | MattG ID: 58243121 Sun, Mar 31, 2019, 22:05 |
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? My strategy as always is to use the resources at hand to target best available. Find value when I can and try to avoid falling into traps of runs or dearths of positions. I was able to execute this through 7 rounds before I saw closers were starting to run thin. Last year Saves was a huge reason for me not winning RIBC so I grabbed Strickland and Bradley back to back. At the time my research had Bradley as the favorite for the Zona closer position. I was wrong. 2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over? Devers in the 7th, Eduardo Rodriguez in the 12th are my favs, I would like to do over the Strickland and Bradley picks, Urias too. 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? Jays tea is solid, his first 12 picks were all very good value, I was impressed. 4. What surprised you most about the draft? How fast good relievers went, I found myself trying to wait but jumped early to not get shut out and I ended up getting shut out. 5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently? I would take some closers early. Maybe stock up on a stud starter or two and then grab a few good relievers, I could rotate SPs and hopefully get a hot run or two... I also wouldn't have went so much for boom or bust for some of these guys, I'm going to have to add through waivers to really get any traction. | ||||||
| 3 | kdl212 ID: 200472320 Fri, Apr 05, 2019, 14:06 |
I love this league - it's my favorite for many reasons: the league is deep enough to require research to field a solid team, the managers are smart and active, and it's my only remaining imaginary baseball team these days. Always excited for the challenge of the draft and managing a team well enough to stay around. 1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? With draft slot 4, I was 98% certain I'd get Bryce Harper again this year, which I was perfectly happy with. I then made a plan for the next 6 rounds, hoping to end up with an elite starter, closer, and 5 high OBP bats. I treated my picks as back-to-backs. Round 2/3 = SP + high OBP slugger Round 4/5 = high OBP hitters Round 6/7 = RP + high OBP hitter Mission accomplished here. I like Bauer and Yates on the pitching side, and ended up with 5 hitters projected with an OBP north of .360 who could add 50 steals to boot. The plan for rounds 8-14 is to add 2 starting pitchers, another closer, and the best bats available, paying attention to stat categories and not positions. It's taken almost a decade, but I've become a firm believer that managers exaggerate the idea of positional scarcity. I used to spend precious early draft choices on middle infielders just so I had my starting lineup filled, while leaving much greater value on the board. No longer. I'm 66% satisfied with these middle rounds. I got Robbie Ray and Kenta Maeda as starters. Ray is a big risk, the kind that can win a league, though at round 9, not the kind that lose it, so I was willing to gamble. Maeda is solid, but unspectacular. I didn't draft a second closer, because once we got to round 10, the value simply wasn't there. I don't see any winning hitting choices from this group, though. Dozier and Hosmer are bounce-back hopes, Grandal was an uncharacteristic high catcher choice, and McMahon was a reach. Polanco (SS) is the only choice here that I think is likely to return any profit. From round 15 on, I'm looking mainly for value, rolling the dice on relievers I'll quickly drop once roles settle in April, grudgingly filling in roster spots, and reminding myself that, at best, 3 of these guys will stay on my team all year. If you manage to hit on 5 out of the last 10 picks, then you've done well and are playing in RIBC next year. I think I did well in these late rounds. Grichuk, Soler, and Kiermaier could be a playable starting outfield in this league. Happily for me, I'll be rotating hot bats from this trio to join my Harper/Cain/McCutchen foundation. Great value here, in my mind. Gray, Gibson, and Junis--like most starting pitchers drafted in the back third of the draft--come with question marks. If I use them smartly--Gray on the road, Gibson against the Royals and Tigers, Junis at home--I should get decent innings out of them. As for middle reliever gambles, I like Parker to actually get saves all year, and like Kela for his ratios. Getting Harrison, a leadoff hitting middle infielder who projects for a 700 OPS with a dozen steals, in round 24 was delightful. Much lesser talent was being taken as many as 10 rounds ahead of him. My real target for my last MI slot, Dustin Pedroia, went undrafted and I planned to move early in the season to get him 2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over? Favorite of mine = McCutchen (6), Grichuk (14), Parker (18), Keirmaier (21). Favorites of others [mainly MI picks I waited too long on, and Dodgers]= K. Marte (10), A Cabrera (13), D. Santana (14), Kike Hernandez (17), Goodrum (18), Pederson (19), Buttrey (23). Do over - Grandal (11), Hosmer (13), McMahon (14) 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? most look good. 4. What surprised you most about the draft? How things don't really change in this league. I was pleased that managers held off on the first run at closers this year compared to previous drafts. 5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently? No - I stuck to my early plan, and feel like I built a solid foundation. And I found good value in the middle and late rounds while others were drafting crap relievers and crap middle infielders. Unusually for me, I don't have a lot of positional flexibility. I often have 2-3 guys with multi-position eligibility, but none this year. Not happy about that. | ||||||
| 4 | Species SuperDude ID: 07724916 Wed, Apr 10, 2019, 11:26 |
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? The big thing in the fantasy baseball arena going into 2019 was the evolution of the use of pitchers and how what effect that had on the value of those pitchers. Specifically, contrary to many years in the past, the 'value' of ace starters (say the top 15 or so) was up. Many "experts" advocated getting 2 of the top 15 starters and filling in behind them. The thought was that you need a couple of 190+ inning guys to provide a stable base of ratios and Ks. As always, I have a general outline of what *I* want to do, but my strength is more going with the flow and plucking value where I find it. That said, I did want to get at least one 'ace' starter and build from there. I did that with Syndergaard in Round 3, but things went really awry from then on out. Did it work? Not really. I honestly felt I was like a dog chasing its tail the entire draft. But this RIBC draft was unlike any other that I could remember. Starters and closers came off the board earlier than ever, leaving me scrambling for the hitters I usually crave. 2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over? Given the really weird flow of this draft, I loved getting slugging 1b Abreu and Olson at 7.12 and 8.05. I felt they were huge values. But even more so, I really felt Domingo Santana at 14.05 was a high upside pick that was a huge steal. That's easy to say here on April 10th with a 1.000+ OPS, 19 RBI and even 3 SB, but before the real opening day I was really happy with that pick. Dee Gordon is proving a valuable steal at 9.12 as well. I had basically zero SB at that point, but he filled a huge need, and his 2b/OF versatility has come in handy. Do-overs? Nick Senzel at 11.12 is one I would probably want back. He could still pay off, and it was an unlucky break that he hurt his ankle and pushed his debut back another few weeks, but getting a Pete Alonso or other solid-to-stud player would have been a lot nicer. I also would have preferred a better second closer over Vizcaino (10.05), but couldn't pull the trigger over the 1b I took at 7 and 8, nor could I afford to skip out on SB in round 9. Hopefully my pickup of Swarzak will keep me mid-pack in saves. 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? Again, also easy to say on April 10th when he is in the lead, but I quickly made slizz the favorite after his draft. While he mis-stepped with Aaron Hicks at 7.01, he made up for it with Piscotty (11.01), Alonso (14.16), Kike Hernandez (17.01) and Mancini (19.01). Great balance of pitching and hitting. I also really liked mjd's draft. It seemed like he was always sniping guys I targeted. Conforto was just too early (4.14) but he is a beast. I wanted Clevinger (5.03) badly, and losing him to his injury is a tough break. Stable closers in Smith and Doolittle and good SP value later in Musgrove (12.14) and Chacin. Sadly between losing Clevinger and enduring Trevor Rosenthal's ratio-killing start he may have a hard time staying up in RIBC next year. 4. What surprised you most about the draft? Normally every year I answer this question with "nothing". But this draft threw me for a loop. I took 3 pitchers in the first 6 picks - something fairly unheard of in recent years, but this draft had highly unusual runs and teams drafting so differently from ADP that nothing made sense. Now, this league does not and should not go "by the chalk", but to go so wildly different than the other RIBC drafts and so different from more standard ADP made this draft both highly frustrating but highly entertaining at the same time. 5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently? Not really. One can always second guess some picks and wish they wouldn't have missed a certain positional or categorical run, but we are all making educated guesses as to the next Pete Alonso type breakout. That's the fun. | ||||||
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