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0 Subject: RIBC 2020: Draft Rationales

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Wed, Mar 11, 2020, 10:22

This thread will contain all of the individual pick rationales for the 2020 RIBC draft. RIBC managers should supply those rationales in the Rationale Collection thread.

I expect that this thread will be updated daily.
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     Mar 26, 11:01 pm
22.15 Margot, Manuel - SDG - OF
Late steals seem the scarcest thing in 2020. Margot was a former high level prospect who get a change of scenery. The Rays typically mix and match lineups more then most so hopefully he can gain some starts early for his defense and find at least a platoon role. If he plays he'll run.

I had two prospects, Adell and Carlson taken earlier this round from the top of my queue. Rare to lose two so late in this draft. Short season could bump up some prospects I think.

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     Mar 26, 11:02 pm
22.16 Duffey, Tyler - MIN - RP
Had a bit of a breakout season last year. I see The Doof having another productive high K low ratio season to help balance things out. These guys can be a good value for your squad.
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     Mar 27, 12:08 am
23.01 Riley, Austin - ATL - OF
Like it was said earlier in this draft, better to try a younger guy and hope for a lottery ticket. Riley is still a bit raw but will be hitting in a great lineup. I'm just hoping he makes some strides in his sophomore season.
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     Mar 27, 12:08 am
23.02 Petit, Yusmeiro - OAK - RP
A fly ball pitcher who plays in a giant park. Consistently has a very low WHIP which why I went for him over other handcuff options.
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     Mar 27, 12:54 am
23.03 Alfaro, Jorge - MIA - C
With Austin Riley swiped on the turn, I had a decision to make here: draft (1) Jesus Aguilar, the last remaining clean-up hitter on the board, and just a year removed from a very productive season, (2) Chris Taylor, who appears likely to start the season as the Dodgers second baseman while Gavin Lux is in AAA not accruing service time for a month, or (3) pick one of several catchers still on the board.

I talked myself into Chris Taylor making it back to me in the 24th round (he did!). But I knew Aguilar wouldn't. Aguilar's upside was certainly higher than any of the catchers I was considering, so I probably should've gone Aguilar, and then taken whatever the draft left me at catcher in Round 24/25.

But I read something that convinced me that Alfaro had a chance to distance himself from the likes of Chirinos, Suzuki, Perez, Castro, and Posey: he has insane exit velocity. Trouble is, he has a low launch angle and strikes out a ton. But if he progresses just a bit, and raises his launch angle a bit, at age 26, he could put up a 325/450 season with a few steals. So I went Alfaro, and regretted it the moment I did.

356Matt G
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     Mar 27, 8:00 am
23.04 Eflin, Zach - PHI - SP
Surprised he was still around, doesn't produce that Ks that I'd like by could have a stud start here or there. More than likely just going to spot start him as needed.
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     Mar 27, 8:43 am
23.05 Long, Shed - SEA - 2B
Middle Infielders are definitely my least proven positions, so I needed to grab a guy with upside here, who could cover in case Urias isnít ready to go out of the gate, or if someone else goes down with injury. Heís currently penciled in as the lead-off hitter and starting second baseman for the Mariners. Projections seem to have him around 320/400 with 7-10 steals. Seems like a decent security option. Thoughts on the twenty third round: quoting Guru: ďwow - Buster Posey in round 23. Doesn't seem like that many seasons ago that he was the first catcher off the board.Ē
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     Mar 27, 8:58 am
23.06 Gausman, Kevin - SFO - SP
Gausman will open the year in the Giants rotation and I expect him to pitch decently if healthy. He spent time pitching out of the bullpen last year and there has been some speculation he might return to that role. If that happens I would expect him to pitch in high leverage situations, possibly as a closer.
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     Mar 27, 9:19 am
23.07 Piscotty, Stephen - OAK - OF
Piscotty was an exciting prospect once upon a time. As recently as last year, Fangraphs' blurb said "Firmly in his prime, Piscotty is a solid mid-tier power bat who has the skills to plateau at or around his 2018 level for the next few seasons. Heís fairly priced, too, checking around the 40 to 50 range among all outfielders."

Piscotty has hit .336/.447 so far and he has plenty of SLG upside. He has averaged 82 R and 87 RBI in his two full seasons.

He is also currently dealing with an intercostal sprain, which is only the latest incident in what he recently described as an "eight-month perpetual cycle of hurt" which doesn't sound particularly promising... but there aren't many OF with playing time, upside, and a decent floor in the 23rd round, so it's worth taking a shot.

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     Mar 27, 10:52 am
23.08 Reyes, Alex - STL - RP
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     Mar 27, 11:17 am
23.09 Ahmed, Nick - ARI - SS
Good defensive abilities lead to plenty of playing time, good for cumulative stats for a reserve infielder.
362Uptown Bombers
      ID: 330592710
     Mar 27, 11:47 am
23.10 Chirinos, Robinson - TEX - C
With both Robinson and Yonny drafted, my team should be renamed Honey Nut Chirinos.

Some point around round 10, I put a list of several catchers into my queue and decided I could survive with any of them. A few had upside potential (S. Murphy, Alfaro, Mejia) and a few were more conservative options. Chirinos is the last one to survive in my queue. This morning (Friday, 3/27), I thought about adding Posey to the list and drafting him over Chirinos (Happy birthday Buster!) but stuck to my original instinct. I still think Posey, who got drafted shortly after by the other team needing a catcher, would be just as good an option at this stage.

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     Mar 27, 11:50 am
23.11 Bummer, Aaron - CWS - RP
Colome is on a 1 year deal so if the season starts in July thereís a decent chance he gets traded if the White Sox start off slow. Bummer is a decent gamble for saves.
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     Mar 27, 11:58 am
23.12 Kahnle, Tommy - NYY - RP
With my next picks I wanted to get help with ratios and strikeouts.
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     Mar 27, 12:02 pm
23.13 Posey, Buster - SFO - C
Thought long and hard about taking a 2B here like Profar to start the first 10 games. With Kingery set to man 2B all year for Philly, he will gain 2B eligibility by the 2nd week.

As Smith & 9th noted, 5 teams had 2 catchers already by the 19th round. I didn't want to risk floating him any longer. Here's to hoping he still has some juice left...but I'm not holding my breath. Only positive about Posey is that he won't kill my ratios. If he was taken I would've just burned my 25th round pick on a catcher and went Profar.

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     Mar 27, 12:24 pm
23.14 Peralta, Freddy - MIL - RP
For the next two picks, I wanted a backup hitter Ė preferably with 2B eligibility Ė and a pitcher. Looking at the two teams picking at the turn, I felt comfortable deferring on the hitter until round 24.

A few of the pitchers drafted recently would have tempted me. Petit and Bummer were both on my short list.

Finally settled on 23-year-old Peralta. Still developing, and will likely be in the bullpen to open the season, with occasional spot starts. As the season progresses, who knows? He hasnít yet put it all together, but he has shown an ability to miss bats, fanning 211 in just 163 IP in his brief ML career. Strictly a speculative pick.

With Gallegos as one of my relievers, I probably should have picked up Andrew Miller here as some insurance, but finally decided that father time seems to have his number now. So I passed.

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     Mar 27, 12:29 pm
23.15 Hudson, Dakota - STL - SP
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     Mar 27, 1:02 pm
23.16 Aguilar, Jesus - MIA - 1B
I think everyone is fairly well familiar with this guy. He has been great, and he has been terrible. Most recently he was terrible, but here he is at the end of the draft, and I have a need for a corner infielder who is lined up for a lot of at bats. so I'll take a chance and see if he can be great again.
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     Mar 27, 1:05 pm
24.01 Kopech, Michael - CWS - SP
Kopech had been on my radar for a few rounds, so when I saw he was still there I just drafted him with no deliberation. He's another top prospect 100mph guy, and my other dart throws at SP seemed to call for yet another dart throw. He was optioned to the minors yesterday but I'll keep him around for a while and see if anything shakes out.
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     Mar 27, 1:05 pm
24.02 Cooper, Garrett - MIA - 1B
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     Mar 27, 1:06 pm
24.03 Frazier, Adam - PIT - 2B
Ö and as expected, I got my targeted hitter. Nothing special here, other than that he is likely to be an everyday hitter (608 PA in 2019), often batting in the leadoff spot, and eligible at 2B, which will be very useful for lineup flexibility Ė since my other second baseman is also eligible at SS & OF. Should get a few steals (probably when heís on my bench), and has at least a modicum of pop (career SLG of .420).
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     Mar 27, 1:06 pm
24.04 Miller, Andrew - STL - RP
Flier on a bullpen arm. With the delayed start to the season, Miller will have an opportunity to "break camp" with the team. The cards are notorious for manipulating their pen to save money in arbitration. While Gallegos is one of their better arms, I could see him losing the saves opportunities if Miller hasn't been used in the 9th b/c it would lower his Arb #. If not, first cut!
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     Mar 27, 8:38 pm
24.05 Baez, Pedro - LAD - RP
Help with Kís and ratios and a handcuff for Kenley Jansen.
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     Mar 27, 6:15 pm
24.06 Hicks, Aaron - NYY - OF
Officially team ďAaronĒ. Hicks recovery time looks promising that heíll be ready if the season starts in July. Heís a decent ratio guy for round 24. His health is the question mark. Figured itís worth gambling that the season starts late and heíll be ready.
375Uptown Bombers
      ID: 330592710
     Mar 27, 6:23 pm
24.07 Gonzalez, Marwin - MIN - OF
No upside here, just a steady vet with eligibility at 3 positions. Between Gonzalez and Fletcher, I should be able to plug most line-up holes in the short term, while looking out for a long term addition in the FA pool. I donít know the prospects that well compared to most of the folks in the boards, as I donít play in any dynasty leagues. Iíve read about some of the younger players still available but have no strong opinions on them. So, I settled on the boring pick.
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     Mar 27, 6:26 pm
24.08 Eovaldi, Nathan - BOS - SP
Shooting in the dark for a last hurrah for Nathan, after the injury marred last season. Or he may be the first player I cut.
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     Mar 27, 8:19 pm
24.09 Profar, Jurickson - SDG - 2B
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     Mar 27, 8:19 pm
24.10 Montgomery, Jordan - NYY - SP
After mostly ignoring starting pitching through the first 9 rounds, I have been drafting my SP with a heavy bias toward the W and K categories. All of my SPs are coming off seasons with a K/9 over 9, and all of them except Ohtani are playing for teams who had 97+ wins last season.

That should give me options when we get towards the final 1/3 of the season: if my pitching turns out like I'm hoping and I have a lot of ERA/WHIP roto points to maintain or gain, there's always a bunch of low-walk-rate pitchers like Pineda or Means or Yarbrough available to spot start because nobody wants to roster their weak K rates.

If my pitchers are doing poorly, this strategy should allow me to salvage my pitching category points by abandoning ERA/WHIP and getting toward the top in K/W by choosing mediocre spot starters with high K rates and good matchups.

Most projections only have Montgomery around ~8.5 K/9 this year, which is more in line with his career averages. He has also averaged 3.91/1.26, and at age 27 he's young enough to take a step up. Montgomery looked great in his limited spring training action, and his fastball is 2 mph faster than he has ever thrown it before. The AL East has a rough set of stadiums to pitch in, but the rest of the division looks weaker than it has in a long time.

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     Mar 27, 8:34 pm
24.11 Kim, Kwang Hyun - STL - SP
Kim figures to open the season in the Cardinals rotation and has looked impressive this spring. The Cardinals have a good track record with pitchers, so I decided to take a chance with him.
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     Mar 27, 9:03 pm
24.12 O'neill, Tyler - STL - OF
Time for another swing for the fences pick. Oíneilís upside is tied to his ability to cut down on his strikeout rate. If he can do that, he should be the incumbent clean-up hitter (not currently penciled in though) for the Cardinals. Itís not impossible to see him find his way to 850+ OPS and 5+ SBs.
381Matt G
      ID: 330592710
     Mar 27, 10:13 pm
24.13 Davies, Zach - SDG - SP
Same deal as eflin, just a depth pick at this point, didn't like any of the relievers that were there I'll wait and waiver wire a few saves if necessary.
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     Mar 27, 10:15 pm
24.14 Taylor, Chris - LAD - 2B
It seems like the Dodgers don't plan to start the year with Gavin Lux at 2B - they can get an extra year of control if he spends something like 5 weeks in AAA, and he'd been playing a lot of DH in spring training. If that's true, and they go with Chris Taylor for 5-6 starts a week (whether at second or all over the diamond), then I can get some nice all-around production out of a guy with maximum roster flexibility (maybe he even adds 3B if Turner misses time as he often does). As a bonus, he's Corey Seager insurance.
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     Mar 27, 10:16 pm
24.15 Santander, Anthony - BAL - OF
O man I'm glad I'm not an O's fan. This guy is supposed to bat third for you? Ouch. I bet he doesn't make my opening day roster. At best, I'll hold and hope for a hot start.
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     Mar 27, 10:54 pm
24.16 Hoerner, Nico - CHC - SS
I felt he was worth a late round flier. Just looking at him as a backup shortstop with some potential.
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     Mar 27, 11:01 pm
25.01 Whitley, Forrest - HOU - SP
He may have a chance to be in the mix in the starting rotation this year if he can put it together. As one of the top 20 or so redraft 2020 prospects, you could do worse with your 25th round picks.
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     Mar 27, 11:01 pm
25.02 Dolis, Rafael - TOR - RP
Handcuff for Giles. I will likely just keep him on the bench unless in line for a save that day.
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     Mar 27, 11:06 pm
25.03 Alvarado, Jose - TAM - RP
Every year, I've still got 5 guys in my queue that I'd love to roster, and only one more roster spot to fill. I wish we had 28-30 roster spots/rounds of the draft. It would allow/encourage a bit more gambling in the draft, reduce the ease of in-season streaming, and (maybe) encourage a bit more trading activity.

So, out of a bunch of targets still on my board, I went with Jose Alvarado, who had a nightmare last season after a solid April that involved both personal matters with his Mom and injuries. Sure, the Rays have Nick Anderson and his silly stats from last year, but they also like to spread the bullpen around. And they wouldn't be the first team to hold back on a stud reliever pre-arbitration, so maybe Anderson doesn't actually get the bulk of the save opportunities.

388Matt G
      ID: 330592710
     Mar 27, 11:37 pm
25.04 Gordon, Dee - SEA - 2B
Steals and only steals here, I'll slide him in from time to time to boost that category, but only when he's getting the playing time to make a difference.
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     Mar 27, 11:56 pm
25.05 Ottavino, Adam - NYY - RP
Last pick of the draft, just grabbing an RP who can help out the ratios a bit. Playing for the Yankees in potentially high leverage situations, should be able to pick up the occasional W and S.
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     Mar 28, 5:18 am
25.06 Stanek, Ryne - MIA - RP
Stanek figures to pitch in high leverage situations for the Marlins and could quite possibly end up as their closer under the right circumstances. Basically I am fishing for saves here.
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     Mar 28, 5:39 am
25.07 Aquino, Aristides - CIN - OF
Since our rosters will be frozen for an extended period of time, I wanted my last pick to be somebody whose value could potentially rise significantly over the next 2 months.

The plan is currently for Aquino to start the season in AAA, but if any of the 5 OF on the Reds get hurt, Aquino could be in line for meaningful playing time right off the bat.

Aquino also had a terrible start to spring training (0-14 with 6 Ks), and that likely contributed to the AAA decision. If there ends up being another brief spring training session (summer training?) when the MLB resumes, he might have a chance to go on a hot streak and redeem himself.

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     Mar 28, 5:41 am
25.08 Plesac, Zach - CLE - SP
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     Mar 28, 6:23 am
25.09 Lindblom, Josh - MIL - SP
Another shot in the dark for the return to the USA after two very good seasons in the KBO.
394Uptown Bombers
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     Mar 28, 9:55 am
25.10 Gott, Trevor - SFO - RP
Another dart at the SF closer situation.
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     Mar 28, 12:27 pm
25.11 Hicks, Jordan - STL - RP
Speaking of the season starting late... Hicks return is unknown at this point. I think July is unlikely but possibly August. If season is extremely shortened I think he could be rushed back. I figured itís worth the gamble to get a potential closer. Heíll be easy to drop if and when the season start is announced and heís not ready.
      ID: 330592710
     Mar 28, 12:36 pm
25.12 Green, Chad - NYY - RP
As with my last 2 picks, help with ratios and Ks.
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     Mar 28, 12:36 pm
25.13 Burnes, Corbin - MIL - RP
Pure spec play at upside. Like Keller, Burnes has nasty stuff...but has been an abomination. I will need to drop someone before the season starts to make room for a 2B streamer for the first few weeks of the season. Freddy Galvis anyone? hahaha
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     Mar 28, 12:55 pm
25.14 Soria, Joakim - OAK - RP
Will likely handle setup work for Oakland, although he does provide a bit of coverage if Hendriks should falter or get injured. Posted an odd combination last year of 4.30 ERA with a 1.03 WHIP. Underlying skills suggest that the high ERA was a bit unlucky. Still posted a K rate of better then one per inning.
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     Mar 28, 1:09 pm
25.15 Howard, Spencer - PHI - SP
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     Mar 28, 2:54 pm
25.16 Reyes, Victor - DET - OF
Very last pick of the draft. He'll probably be cut from my roster before too long but he does have decent 20 SB type speed. Not a huge bat but his numbers last year in AAA (.304 .334 .481) and MLB (.304 .336 .431) weren't shabby.
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