I had two prospects, Adell and Carlson taken earlier this round from the top of my queue. Rare to lose two so late in this draft. Short season could bump up some prospects I think.

But I read something that convinced me that Alfaro had a chance to distance himself from the likes of Chirinos, Suzuki, Perez, Castro, and Posey: he has insane exit velocity. Trouble is, he has a low launch angle and strikes out a ton. But if he progresses just a bit, and raises his launch angle a bit, at age 26, he could put up a 325/450 season with a few steals. So I went Alfaro, and regretted it the moment I did.

He is also currently dealing with an intercostal sprain, which is only the latest incident in what he recently described as an "eight-month perpetual cycle of hurt" which doesn't sound particularly promising... but there aren't many OF with playing time, upside, and a decent floor in the 23rd round, so it's worth taking a shot.

Some point around round 10, I put a list of several catchers into my queue and decided I could survive with any of them. A few had upside potential (S. Murphy, Alfaro, Mejia) and a few were more conservative options. Chirinos is the last one to survive in my queue. This morning (Friday, 3/27), I thought about adding Posey to the list and drafting him over Chirinos (Happy birthday Buster!) but stuck to my original instinct. I still think Posey, who got drafted shortly after by the other team needing a catcher, would be just as good an option at this stage.

As Smith & 9th noted, 5 teams had 2 catchers already by the 19th round. I didn't want to risk floating him any longer. Here's to hoping he still has some juice left...but I'm not holding my breath. Only positive about Posey is that he won't kill my ratios. If he was taken I would've just burned my 25th round pick on a catcher and went Profar.

With Gallegos as one of my relievers, I probably should have picked up Andrew Miller here as some insurance, but finally decided that father time seems to have his number now. So I passed.

Most projections only have Montgomery around ~8.5 K/9 this year, which is more in line with his career averages. He has also averaged 3.91/1.26, and at age 27 he's young enough to take a step up. Montgomery looked great in his limited spring training action, and his fastball is 2 mph faster than he has ever thrown it before. The AL East has a rough set of stadiums to pitch in, but the rest of the division looks weaker than it has in a long time.

So, out of a bunch of targets still on my board, I went with Jose Alvarado, who had a nightmare last season after a solid April that involved both personal matters with his Mom and injuries. Sure, the Rays have Nick Anderson and his silly stats from last year, but they also like to spread the bullpen around. And they wouldn't be the first team to hold back on a stud reliever pre-arbitration, so maybe Anderson doesn't actually get the bulk of the save opportunities.

Aquino also had a terrible start to spring training (0-14 with 6 Ks), and that likely contributed to the AAA decision. If there ends up being another brief spring training session (summer training?) when the MLB resumes, he might have a chance to go on a hot streak and redeem himself.

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