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0 Subject: RIBC 2021: draft rationale collection thread

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Fri, Mar 12, 2021, 11:20

RIBC managers: Please post your rationales in this thread. Rationales are due on a two round lag (i.e., when you make you 3rd round pick, your 1st round rationale is due). You can post any rationale sooner than that if you wish.

Do not worry about placeholders or keeping things in the proper sequence. This is just a place to collect rationales, which I will then transfer over to the formal rationale thread in the proper sequence. This approach has worked well for the past several seasons, and I now have a somewhat automated method for making those transfers.

Remember that you should refrain from mentioning undrafted players. If you feel that your rationale requires that, then hold it back until the player has been drafted - unless the player mentioned is clearly undraftable this year.

When posting your first rationale, please also comment on your choice of draft sequence.
Only the 50 most recent replies are currently shown. Click on this text to display hidden posts as well.
[Lengthy or complex threads may require a slight delay before updating.]
131kdl212
      ID: 17825210
      Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 21:05
18.09 Enrique Hernandez, 2B/OF, BOS
For many years, the Red Sox lead-off hitter was a top RIBC draft pick. But this year they've got Enrique Hernandez in the spot, and I'm certain I'll be the only person who drafted him before the 20th round. He's never had a chance to get regular playing time. Maybe this opportunity allows him to unlock his full potential, and he hits 330/450 and scores 90 runs. Those are optimistic 18th round goggles I'm wearing, but that's the required attire at this point. Thought about Josh Rojas and Profar, and a couple of other 2B-eligible guys (I hadn't yet drafted a 2B), but only Hernandez gave me a little excitement. If he poops the bed, I move on. [Note to draftime.com - either accent the "e" on Hernandez's nickname, or omit it. Putting an anti-semitic slur in parenthesis after somebody's name isn't a good look].

Thought about going starting pitcher here (big dice roll on Robbie Ray who has found 2-3 MPH this spring or Domingo German; or someone with a lower variance but a lower ceiling like Odorizzi or Taijuan Walker), but I had enough starters on my list of guys I could roster without plugging my nose that I deferred.
132kdl212
      ID: 17825210
      Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 21:57
19.08 Jake Odorizzi, SP, HOU
True story: I actually considered Odorizzi in round 13 alongside Sandy Alcantara. 6 rounds and over 20 starting pitchers later, he's still on the board. He was a 10k/9 All-Star in 2019 with a 3.36 FIP after he found a couple ticks of velocity. It seems 13 bad innings in 2020 and a late start to the season is enough to scare folks off. Happy to try my luck in the 19th round on a guy picked by Rudy Gamble (Rudy Gamble!) at 184 in Tout Wars. And for once in this draft, I was in front of a run on SP (13 of 26 picks starting with Odorizzi were SP). I'd love to get 130 SP3 innings out of my 19th round pick.
133JeffG
      ID: 44182712
      Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 22:25
20.12 Dallas Keuchel SP CWS

I usually do not pick up a 6th starter, but I have a few drafted starters who may be a few weeks late. Lets see how Dallas does in the first few starts as the number two starter playing for a White Sox team who suddenly has high expectations. Keuchel is long removed from when he was a league ace. The White Sox need a better rotation if they are going to do anything this season
134JeffG
      ID: 44182712
      Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 22:25
21.05 Jackie Bradley JR, OF, Mil

Picking up an OF5 to slot in on off days. Its a crap shoot. Three of the outfielders in Milwaukee's four man OF were all under consideration here. Thought about Cain for steals, but Bradley should get double digits as well, and has better splits in the projections I've been following.
135Graydog
      ID: 521432422
      Sun, Mar 21, 2021, 23:48
17.11 France, Ty - 2B - SEA

Frozen rope machine Mr France! Shocked that Seattle Zen didn't lock him up with his pick this round. I would wager 20 that France outduels his 17th round pick: Something Hernandez! Thanks for the great rationales S-Zen love reading them, so great in fact, I felt a shot across the bow was necessary...

France appears as safe a bet a as any at this point in the draft. Will play most days and his profile suggests he won't fall off the map because of his approach. Only has 2B eligibility at this point but should get 3rd and hopefully 1st at some point. I didn't really consider any other hitters here.

18.06 Varcho, Daulton - C - ARI

I don't know a ton about Varcho other than he is a highly rated prospect who can steal bags that has catcher eligibility. An injury to (undrafted or wont be drafted) has opened up playing time to start the year. I like to run 2 catchers when possible and this year that will be easier to do thanks to the rule changes. I also like my 2nd catcher to be on the west coast so I can always slot them in when Realmuto has a day off. As a bonus even if Varcho doesn't start he could be used a pinch runner and grab me a bag. Realmuto's thumb injury seems to be lingering longer than expected so I targeted catcher here.

19.11 Andrus, Elvis - SS - OAK

I had zero plans of drafting Andrus. I wanted to Draft Villar or Castro as a 2nd SS but they both went since my last pick, maybe I should have waited on Varcho but I didn't think they would both go. Andrus has told everyone who would listen that he plans to steal bases this year and his manager has seemingly told him "go for it". He has slowed significantly over the last 2 years according to statcast (35% spring speed in 2020) so apparently he will steal bases purely on veteran guile.

20.06 Romano, Jordan - RP - TOR

Great numbers last year. 2nd in line to close behind Yates who barely pitched last year. Seems almost certain Yates wont go back to back, smells like vulture city.

21.11 Wittgren, Nick - RP - CLE

Karinchak seems like he will be dominant but not yet proven in the pen for Cleveland. Wittgren is there if he falters. Wittgren's peripherals aren't as great as his recent ERA and WHIP suggest but maybe hes just "one of those guys" who can replicate that.
137Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 08:48
17.03 Garrett Hampson, OF/2B, Col

NBC Sports Edge says that Hampson will carve out an everyday role as a super utilityman with the Rockies. He has an OBP of .410 in spring training, without power. I am counting on him as a source of stolen bases. With a deadened ball, stolen bases will be more valuable, so time for Hampson to turn it on.

He can also entertain the fans as we play ring-around-the-rosey between innings now that I have 4 players with multi-position eligibility. He can move to 2B, McMahon can move to 3B, Biggio can move to OF, and Mountcastle can move to 1B.

Also considered: Mitch Haniger (17.06), Alex Dickerson (18.01), Robbie Grossman (18.04).

18.14 Domingo German, SP, NYY

Surprise, surprise. Mmikulka did it again. I wish mmikulka had read Rotowire's profile of Ray, which starts “If you came here looking for a case to draft Ray, you've come to the wrong place.” Ray has been lighting it up for the Blue Jays with a 1.98 ERA and 0.80 WHIP.

That's 4 snipes for mmikulka. That must be an RIBC record, don't you think? I guess it's not an official statistic.

In this case, however, I have a second choice. German seems to have locked up a rotation spot with the Yankees, and has a nice ERA of 0.00, with a 13/1 K/BB ratio. Yes, he plays for the Evil Empire, but the Wheatfarmers (officially at least) believe in Inclusion and Diversity and do not discriminate.
138Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 09:03
19.03 Adam Ottavino, RP, Bos
Looking for a reliever who can provide a source of K/IP and inherit the closer's role if the incumbent goes down or is traded.

20.14 Steven Matz, SP, Tor

Taijuan Walker (20.09) and Dallas Keuchel (20.12) were at the top of my queue for SP6, but those picks allowed me to go with my gut and pick the guy I really wanted.
I too have a lefthander who's been pitching lights out for the Blue Jays. ERA and WHIP even better than Ray's, 0.90/0.70. Intended as a late sleeper pick, but in this league it's not safe to wait.

21.04 Jake Diekman, RP, Oak

Was right after Ottavino on my list; may be a better choice if the incumbent's groin strain doesn't heal as quickly or completely as the As now hope.
139Seattle Zen
      ID: 301361318
      Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 10:30
20.15.319 Freddie Peralta, SP, Brewers

I’d like to take this moment to commend everyone for keeping this draft moving along swiftly without a single skipped pick. I learned on Thursday that I may have my first jury trial in over a year on Monday the 29th. Glad I don’t have that added stress during this most important event of March. COVID has caused the courts to postpone jury trials for most of the past year. I had three trials in January and February of 2020 before the Court stopped them for four months in March. I didn’t have any when they started up again in the summer yet I still ended up with the most trials for the office for the year, HA! My little county here on the lovely Olympic Peninsula has had a very low COVID rate all year, one of the lowest in a state that has been held up as the model of the nation’s covid response. The NY Times had a story saying that if the whole nation responded like the Great State of Washington to COVID we would have saved over 300,000 lives. Y’all could have learned a thing or two, looking specifically at you, North Dakota.

I have now drafted a Frankie and a Freddy, sounds like the makings of a do wop band or the cast of Jersey Boys. I will not have that here on Seattle Zen, I have professional standards that won’t allow it. Unlike a certain squad from back East, all players MUST have beards. The team went on a spirit quest in our yurt and came up with more appropriate names for our boys. They will hereby be called Gideon Montas and Aṡoka Peralta.

Aṡoka may not be listed as a starter for the Brewers this spring but rest assured he will be in their rotation and one of their stars. He had an elite 38%K rate in 2020, his Statcast chart is very red. His four seamer is elite, no one can hit that cheese despite average velocity. He’s just 24 and he is going into his fourth major league season. With an excellent defense behind him to gobble up the few balls that his opponents hit, he won’t be drafted in the 300s next season.

21.02.322 JP Crawford, SS, Seattle

I can’t remember the last time I drafted a Mariner bat. The local newspaper is hyping JP’s improved bat this spring in hopes of convincing people to pay money to attend games in person. Don’t know if it will work. He’s slated to lead off, maybe he will start stealing bases. He was once a top prospect and the main asset coming to the M’s in the Jean Segura trade. He may be decent, he may be waiver wire fodder in April, who knows.
140Da Bomb
      Donor
      ID: 487112814
      Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 11:48
19.14 David Dahl, OF, TEX

A former fantasy sleeper darling, Dahl has been hampered by injuries but is currently back to full health, hitting well this Spring, and looks to be the everyday #2 hitter in Texas.

20.03 Joey Wendle, 3B,2B,SS, TB

The Rays like to rotate their lineup around but Wendle should be in there at least full time vs RHP where he had a nifty .798 OPS vs them last year and stole a total of 8 bases. He will ideally act as useful depth with his 3 position eligibility.
141Nerfherders
      ID: 56261418
      Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 15:48
19.10 James McCann, C NYM
I guess I have to have a catcher eh? McCann was pretty good last year in limited duty. Honestly not expecting much here, but the catchers behind him are very nearly un-rosterable.

20.07 John Means, SP BAL
Just looking for my 5th and final starter. Means is very good, and his only downside will be wins. His ratios should be fine and his K rate will be okay. If he trips up, should be easily replaceable.
142kdl212
      ID: 17825210
      Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 16:16
20.09 Taijuan Walker, SP, NYM
This is only the 2nd time in 11 RIBC drafts that I've ever selected 7 starting pitchers. But I think quality innings are going to be tougher to come by this year, and thought the value of Odorizzi and Walker in these last 2 rounds was much higher than the hitting options or reliever wild cards. It might be a blessing that I did, since news just hit that Zac Gallen (my already regretted 4th round pick) has the dreaded forearm soreness. That makes that pick even more regrettable, but these last two more important.

Not expecting any Cy Young votes here. But a career year in a pitcher's park with good offensive support cannot logically be ruled out.
143mmikulka
      ID: 4211332822
      Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 18:50
19.04 Cesar Valdez, RP, BAL
Who better to draft than a 36 year old that had a 7.5 K/9 last year, spent 2018-19 pitching in Mexico, and throws an 85 mph fastball?

Valdez threw a weird sidearm changeup 83% of the time last year. Nobody else threw a changeup over 58% of the time, and only 7 other pitchers threw one over 40% of the time. It resulted in a 1.26/0.70 line, though hoping for a repeat of that seems silly. His role is undefined at the moment, but Valdez was the Orioles' closer at the end of last year and it seems like he might be in contention for at least a share of that role in 2021 too.

20.13 Madison Bumgarner, SP, ARI
Bumgarner had a lousy 2020, but didn't we all?

Prior to that, he had 10 consecutive years of quality pitching. The projections hate him, but I have rebound hopes: Bumgarner seems old, but he is only 31 and his fastball velocity is up 2 or 3 mph from 2020. He was drafted 188 picks earlier last year, so it won't take a full rebound for him to have value. I doubt he will be an ace, but I will be very happy if he can return to something like his 2019 numbers (207.2 IP, 3.90/1.13, 8.8 K/9).
144Seattle Zen
      ID: 301361318
      Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 19:13
22.15.351 Framber Valdez, SP, H-Town

I like a lot of the picks coming off the board. I came into the draft expecting to take Josh Naylor but at this point I have five outfielders so Nerf can reap that profit. Jake Diekman is a great pitcher who should get some saves either because Trevor gets hurt or traded. Also like Clase, the guy is a K machine. Soroka and Smyly are great values this late. I have frequently drafted Rich Hill over the past five seasons because I trend towards drafting skills even if the player is made of glass. This year, though, there will be plenty of “Over the Hill” puns, I suspect holt will cut Rich fairly early not because he is injured but because he is not. I, too, was considering Elvis Andrus, graydog. Your late round Andrus France middle infield has a great chance of making hay, not so sure about Wittgren, but the Romano pick is now looking rather wise. We may be looking back at this draft in October and say to ourselves, “Why didn’t I think of that?” when we look at Not so Young anymore Roman’s pick number 300 Chris Sale. With an IL slot, he could very well provide a half season of top 50 production without damaging YR’s bench. I wanted Jesus Aguilar and John Means. Dallas Keuchel was a steal, of course he won’t have a sub 2.00 ERA but still, that’s a great pick. Lo Cain, E Escobar, Starlin no longer the Marlin Castro, all excellent picks. I’ve been a big fan of Trevor May since he was in high school in Kelso, WA. Early first round pick by the Phillies, traded to my Twins for Ben Revere, he throws heat and could easily spend some time as the closer because E Diaz can have bouts of “Where is that confounded plate?!?”

The Rouge’s Gallery this morning at Baseball Reference was way too difficult. Who in the hell would know that this is Ice Box Chamberlin? Don’t get me wrong, he was a good pitcher, he started 301 games and had a 9.2 WAR for St. Louis one year, but it was for the Browns and that was in 1889. Safe to say I didn’t have any 1889 baseball cards in my collection.

This one was also unfair I didn’t recognize Freddy Garcia because this looks more like a mug shot than anything (probably intentional if you followed Freddy’s career). I have seen Freddy about three feet away from me back when he was a Mariner.

Is it time to look for a catcher? Ugh, no.

I make a queue of nine players around the time holt is picking and now just a few picks away not a one has been taken. If I was an American woman research has shown that I would probably start questioning my list and let doubt creep in. But I’m an American man so I will just brush it off, call y’all a bunch of clowns in my rationale and sit smugly in my Throne of Self Assurance waiting for praise and accolades. Because I am white, too, I am accustomed to getting them even when they are not deserved.

I had Framber at the top of my queue because I am in desperate need of starting pitching ;) He doesn’t need surgery on his finger after all, his healing is a “miracle”. His manager said he has “The Predator’s blood” in his veins. I think he may have meant Pascual Perez, I get the two of them confused, too. I’m hoping to do at pick 351 what YR did with Chris Sale, stash the guy on the IL while he is “day-to-day” and watch his electric stuff confound the Texas Rangers and Mariners maybe ten times this year.
145mmikulka
      ID: 4211332822
      Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 19:33
21.04 Maikel Franco, 3B, BAL
I needed a backup CI/3B, and Franco should be passable. His career hasn't provided much to get excited about, but at least he has some modicum of power: maybe his new home stadium will boost his OPS into the .780s or .790s.

22.13 Garrett Crochet, RP, CHW
Garrett Crochet has a career line of 0.00/0.45 with a 13.5 K/9. His fastballs averaged 101 mph last year and regularly reached 103 mph. His teammates have called him a "unicorn", "the Shawn Bradley Monstar", and "Randy-Johnson-esque". Steamer is projecting him for an MLB-leading 14.11 K/9 (their highest projection ever?).

And yeah... he has 6.2 career IP so who knows if he will be any good.

I was upset to see Guru poach Trevor May, my other primary target for this set of picks.
146mailedfoot
      ID: 15118199
      Mon, Mar 22, 2021, 20:24
20.08 Mike Minor, SP, KC
Minor is reported to have increased velocity this spring and will be pitching in a pitcher’s park this season. He is getting some buzz as a popular sleeper type pick. I decided to give him a shot here as fifth starter.

21.09 Eduardo Escobar, 3B, ARI
Escobar is projected to hit third in the Diamondback lineup and should rack up plenty of counting stats. In 2019, he hit 35 homers with a .320/.511 line and his max exit velocity is up this spring. Hoping he regains some of that form after dealing with COVID last year.

22.08 Andrelton Simmons, SS, MIN
Simmons is a depth piece for my middle infield and backup for Torres. He’s been a steady middle-of-the-pack type player for most of his career. I only see a few decent SS options still available so went with him here.
147JeffG
      ID: 44182712
      Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 08:53
22.12 Rafael Dolis, RP, Tor
I Waited to long to handcuff my RP2 Soria and DaBomb grabbed closer-in-waiting Crochton from Arizona's pen.

Now I see my Toronto closer Yates is hurt.. Going to miss time. Jordan Romano will likely get the save chances, but already taken by Graydog...

So just grabbing a possibility of someone who could also be in the saves mix for the Jays, and strikes out more than a hitter per inning, and just hoping for a short IL stay for Yates.

Why'd I vote against IL slots??? Now I need like four.
148JeffG
      ID: 44182712
      Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 08:53
23.05 Blake Treinen, RP, LAD
Like I said in 22.12, my closer handcuffs are gone.... so will take one of the few other team handcuffs left. Treinen is the Dodgers set-up-slash-eight-inning guy, and has a lower K9 than most in this role, but the Dodgers will win a lot of games, hopefully by three or less runs, and Jensen will need a day off from time to time.
149s R
      ID: 5970131
      Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 08:53
17.13 Manaea, Sean - OAK - SP

He doesn’t have the most exciting profile as a pitcher as he relies more on control and command rather than strikeouts, but Manaea has made it work throughout his career, and has been a solid starting pitcher since his debut. Manaea definitely isn’t the flashiest pitcher, but he should still be quite a productive one.

18.04 Grossman, Robbie - DET - OF

Enjoyed a career season in 2020. Grossman achieved career-high with a .482 slugging percentage last season. He hit .241/.344/.482 with 22 extra-base hits (eight homers) and stole eight bases. He projects to hit leadoff for the Tigers this season, highlighted by his excellent career .350 OBP.

19.13 Hoerner, Nico - CHC - 2B/SS

Hoerner is fighting for the starting second base job. He has been in the lineups with the starters of late as well. He has performed well in Spring Training as well and has some prospect pedigree.

20.04 Nola, Austin - SD - C

The Padres like what Nola brings to the table, which points to him seeing the majority of playing time for them at catcher.
150Seattle Zen
      ID: 301361318
      Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 09:10
23.02.354 Dylan Floro, RP, Marlins

Ha, ya snooze, ya lose, Fosten. Thwarted your Dylan Floro hopes and dreams! He signed a contract with the sharp nose fish after pitching for the Dodgers last year. Here’s how I imagined his interview in Miami went: Fish Management (FM) - “Floro, is that Madagascarian? Mancunian? Macadonian? Martian?” DF – Close, Mercedian. FM – It says here you are of the Æsir under Thor. DF – Again, close. I’m a graduate of Buchah Colony High School and our mascot was Thor. I’m actually from the House of El, my father comes from the lesser known branch: the House of Randal El, perhaps you have hear of my cousin Antwaan? Speaking of, I may have to scan the clubhouse for Kryptonite. Hope that won’t be a problem. FM – Proudly Kyrptonite-free since 93!”

Floro may not supplant Large Mouth Bass as the closer but he should provide decent numbers. Nobody can get good contact on his outstanding sinker. He doesn’t walk anyone so his WHIP is nice.
151Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 10:38
22.14 Justin Upton, OF, LAA

A long time ago in a league far away I gave up four keepers to get Justin Upton (Well 4 keepers for him; I could have kept only 2.) When asked to explain the trade, I pointed to the list of comparable players at his age at Baseball Reference.com. It included numerous Hall-of-Famers plus a few others whose careers had derailed on the way to the Hall of Fame, like Juan Gonzalez and Vada Pinson. And I later found out that another manager had wanted Upton even more than I did, but I got there first.

Time has passed. Justin Upton flat out stank the last two years. His list of comps is now totally different. Shawn Green, Dale Murphy (who could be a Hall-of-Famer and who collapsed much like Upton), Reggie Jackson, Bobby Bonds, Greg Luzinski (hey, on what planet are Greg Luzinski and Bobby Bonds comparable players?), Ruben Sierra (another guy who collapsed)....

Except for my desperation for outfielders I never would have considered Justin Upton. The best Rotowire can say about him is that he slashed .285/.385/.582 in his last 23 games. Then I noticed that he's hitting .367/.424/.767 in spring training and has even stolen a base (he stole none last year.) If he hits after Trout and in the midst of Rendon and Ohtani he should have plenty of opportunities to bat in and score runs. Maybe Mike Trout had a word with him and told him that he didn't want anyone in the lineup who played like he didn't give a damn. The talent has always been there, and in the 22nd round I can afford to take a chance.
152Meatwads
      ID: 232392312
      Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 14:24
11.06 Gavin Lux, 2B, LAD

This is the point in the draft where I had to shift gears a bit. First and foremost, this league is notoriously aggressive drafting middle infielders. Rightfully or not, it happens. They are basically treated like closers to a certain degree, and runs happen. A lot of times those runs happen earlier than I think their actual value is. At this point, the board had already been cleared of the safe options. Sure, there were probably some players more guaranteed of playing time, but that's not how I prefer to use these middle-round picks. Lux appears to be the frontrunner to start at second base against right-handed pitching. His upside at a relatively weak position made me comfortable with the gamble. Should chip in across the board with the potential to break out and be a difference-maker.

12.11 Leody Tavares, OF, TEX

Projected to hit leadoff for the Rangers this season after flashing some intriguing power/speed upside last season. I feel adding the steals at this stage of the draft from someone who's not empty speed was a logical use of the pick. I was hesitant to lock up my third OF spot this early but his profile fit my goals enough to justify the selection. There's definitely risk involved since he is only 22-years old and a sophomore slump is within the realm of possibility. I wonder if I could've landed him a round or two later, but outside of that, I am pleased to add him to my squad.

13.06 Drew Pomeranz, RP, SD

Every year I make the mistake of selecting the clear best arm in a bullpen, only to have the manager decide to use their 4th best reliever in the role. It only takes some brief research to discover that Pomeranz has been among the most elite relievers in baseball since moving to the bullpen. Right up there with Liam Hendricks, Josh Hader, and several other top arms. There is no doubt in my mind he is the best arm in the Padres bullpen and would be among the best closers in baseball if given the job. After being the favorite all off-season, the Padres are going to give three lesser players a chance before him. And I am one step closer to not playing leagues with saves anymore. What should've been one of the steals of the draft is a throw-away pick.

14.11 Tyler Mahle, SP, CIN

I had invested in some early pitching so this pick was mainly to build on that. Mahle quietly had a nice season last year and is one of my favorite SP targets after all the bigger names are off the board. This league allows pitching to fall much further than other leagues I play, so I wasn't expecting him to be around at this point. As my SP5 I feel strongly that starting pitching will not be the reason for my demise, as it so often is. It should be clear at this point that I am not willing to lose this league again because of the same issues. If I'm going to lose, it's going to be because I couldn't deal with the offenses other teams put together. Not because I'm playing catchup in pitching ratios from day one.

15.06 Jarred Kelenic, OF, SEA

The Mariners are on the verge of turning their franchise over to the talented youth. As a longtime resident of the area, I feel I have a good sense of the direction the team is going and the timeframe it's happening. Obviously, there are some managers in this league who simply won't take a player that isn't starting in the Majors. And considering our high limits and small benches, I can't blame them. I am the type who is willing to wait a month. I can be flexible with the backend of my roster in the meantime. When Kelenic arrives, he will be the hottest pickup out there and he'll already be on my team. There are several examples just in the last 5-6 years of rookies coming up and taking the league by storm. Most of them less heralded than Kelenic. I'm willing to take the gamble that he's Rookie of the Year material and an immediate upgrade to my team upon in promotion in late April.

153holt
      ID: 491153264
      Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 16:14
19.16 May, Dustin SP LAD

Appears that only 3 of the Dodgers' rotation spots are set at this point. Then you have Urias, Gonsolin, May, and Price. Urias and Gonsolin are off the board so I figured I'd take a chance on May and Price and see what happens. May has a 100 mph heater and a whip of of 1.09 in the majors so far.

19th rd note - W Castro looks like a nice bargain pick to me JeffG.


20.01 Price, David SP LAD

I shouldn't have to explain anything about a David Price. How long will I keep him on my roster if he starts out in the bullpen. Who knows?

Also, Bumgarner is only 31 yrs old? Seriously???


21.16 Flores, Wilmer 2B SFO

1B and 2B eligible. No one ever wants Flores. I know this because he always ends up on my RIBC teams at some point. Not sure how many AB's he'll get, especially in the early going, so this might not be such a great pick. I was kind of short on time with this pick and was having a hard time coming up with position players I had any interest in at this point. he did have an OPS of .848 and .830 in 2019/2020. It's always nice to have an easy painless cut early on so another plus for Flores.


22.01 Hill, Rich SP MIN

I owe Hill for all the incredible starts he's granted me in the past. I didn't want to leave him standing there waiting to be picked like some goofy uncoordinated coke-bottle glassed nerd. He deserves better than that. I will not hold him on my roster for weeks between his inevitable injuries like in years past though. Hoping he somehow stays healthy and gives me 120 IP. Yeah. The last time he had a WHIP over 1.16 was 2014 when he only threw 5.1 innings. Now I see that in 2014 he was 34 yrs old. I guess that must be why they call him over the hill all the time.
154mmikulka
      ID: 4211332822
      Tue, Mar 23, 2021, 22:46
23.04 Noah Syndergaard, SP, NYM
I was worried that Seattle Zen's Framber Valdez post might ruin this plan, but fortunately Syndergaard made it back to me.

He's throwing 96 mph already and is slated to return at some point in June. Will he be an ace post-Tommy-John? I don't know, but with the addition of the IL and the extra roster slot, it's worth a try.

24.13 Brandon Workman, RP, CHC
Kimbrel insurance. If Workman pitches like he did in 2017-2019, he might stick around even if Kimbrel is good.
155kdl212
      ID: 17825210
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 00:20
21.08 Starlin Castro, 2B, WAS
Nothing to see here - backup 2B with a low OBP who hopefully hits 5th or 6th in the Nationals' lineup and he starts off hot. If not, he's dropped for someone who is hot or to fill in for injuries. Also considered Eduardo Escobar and Wittgren, but left him out there so Graydog can amass a staff of exclusively closers (maybe the "corner-the-market" strategy will pay-off, but it'll only do so by trading, because you get 16 points whether you win the saves category by 50 saves or 1 save). In the end, it's better for all me that one guy have 19 closers than 4 or 5 other managers have 4 each. So, please, graydog, keep picking relief pitchers (and catchers).
156kdl212
      ID: 17825210
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 00:32
22.09 Ian Kennedy, RP, TEX
Certainly didn't go to bed with Ian Kennedy anywhere on my radar. But as I waited for my pick to come up in the morning, news that Jose LeClerc was headed for surgery and Kirby Yates was out for weeks as well came out. Research into the Texas bullpen revealed that all their good relievers are hurt, leaving two players (Kennedy and Bush) who aren't even on their 40 man roster as the best positioned for getting saves. Toronto's role seemed likely to go to Romano (owned by graydog, of course), but Rafael Dolis got a few saves last year, so he was considered as well. With no special information, I chose Kennedy because he had 30 saves in 2019.

Had news not intervened (including news that Zac Gallen, my 4th round choice, had the ominous forearm soreness), I was planning to draft a starting pitcher who will be on the IL to start the season.
157Nerfherders
      ID: 56261418
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 01:09
21.10 Josh Naylor, OF CLE

I was honestly lost as to what to do with my remaining picks. I needed a 4th OF until Soler qualifies, and the remaining options were not promising. I literally know nothing about this guy except his projections are okay, and he has a starting job. He's also young and has some upside.

22.07 Lucas Sims, RP, CIN

I thought this was a smart pick at the time, thinking he has a chance to be the closer in Cincy. Little did I know that LeClerc was determined to be out for 'extended time' and probably lost. I could've taken a TEX reliever, but the options there are as murky as the chances of Sims closing. Just mad that I already lost one of my players before the draft is even over.

And then.. something happened, and it was 20 hours before my next pick.

23.10 Jazz Chisholm, 2B MIA
Can you take a handcuff for a middle infielder? That's what Jazz is, essentially. He doesn't quite have the 2B job nailed down, but his upside is good, and if he breaks camp with the team, I can 1-2 Jazz and Berti, even though Berti will probably play mostly in the OF.

And then... another one bites the dust. Kirilloff sent down with a week to go in the spring. Two down, how many more to go?
158JeffG
      ID: 44182712
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 08:17
24.12 Keone Kela RP SD
Still fishing for more save opportunities. Kela is likely to start the season as the Padres set-up guy, but the guys ahead of him Melancon and Pomeranz are not any locks to hold down the position. A good player to keep on my roster until things work themselves out, or other players present themselves.
159JeffG
      ID: 44182712
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 08:18
25.05 Asdrubal Cabrera 3B Arz
It was either a catcher or MI here. Ultimately, I wanted another MI and Cabrera is a utility player for the Dbacks who just may get more playing time than other options here. Maybe can contribute to the counting stats when he plays
160s R
      ID: 5970131
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 08:51
21.13 Eovaldi, Nathan - BOS - SP

Eovaldi’s plate discipline stats have evolved favorably since 2015, and he’s velocity is there. The mixture of high velocity and discipline that makes him a good pitcher. I believe Eovaldi has top-30 upside.

22.04 Longoria, Evan - SF - 3B

Longoria posted the second-best barrel rate (11.5%) and best hard-hit rate (45.2%) of his career last year. I’m taking a shot on him.

23.13 Wisler, Matt - SF - RP

A multi-inning reliver with great ratios can be a secret weapon.
161Seattle Zen
      ID: 301361318
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 09:39
24.15.383 Yusei Kikuchi, SP, Pilots

Wait, Yandy Diaz was available? Damn, missed that. T Rainey, too? Maybe I should pay closer attention. Yusei is my eleventeenth starter. I’m the opposite of graydog. Why stream waiver wire chumps when you can draft yourself a stable full of thoroughbreds? Though his ERA last year was unsightly, his FIP was 3.30. He increased his velo and K rate. He has four very good pitches. He has millions of good reasons to pitch well this year, his contract has a clause where the M’s can exercise and option to keep him for four more years at $66M or he can exercise a one year option for $13 million. The Mariners are in a good division to compete in this year, they have a lot of top young talent, the Astros took a large step back this offseason, the Rangers are god awful and the Angels and A’s are meh. I think Kikuchi could have a SZ emblazoned on his uni all season with a winning record and an ERA under 4. Perhaps he and Maeda can teach the rest of the squad the fight songs from their high school years.

25.02.386 Jorge Alfaro, C, Miami

More Fish! I’ve got four trophy fish to go with my three Phillies and one Giant Gnat. Guess I will be firing up a lot of 4:00pm games on MLB TV. Screw the Mets and the Braves! Catchers are awful, when we get rid of home plate umpires can we also drop catchers? Just have some sort of padded wall the pitcher throws against? Much like NFL kickers, we have to have a catcher and Alfaro is just as meh as the next bum. Here’s some next level, sabermetric analysis: If he stinks I’ll cut him and grab someone else. Looking back to his minor league years, there is a lot to like. Back in 2013 as a 20 year old in rookie ball, he slashed .429/.500/.820 .569 wOBP, 240 wRC+ and as a 22 year old in rookie ball in 2019 he improved to .500/.667/.750 .656 wOBP, 311 wRC+. I am counting on something inbetween those numbers, I’d be fine with a .585/.800 295 wRC+ for the whole season, not the six and three game performances back in ‘13 and ‘15. GO MIAMI!
162Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 09:48
23.03 Brad Zimmer, OF, Cle

A few years ago I made rather a fool of myself for drafting Zimmer about 12 rounds earlier than he should have gone. I has entranced by the combination of speed and power he offered. Now it transpires that he should have the good side of a platoon in the Indians outfield. Rotowire says "Zimmer deserves a normal season where he's healthy before giving up hope that he can get back on track.” OK.
After the game he can join Wheatfarmer colleagues O'Neill and Hampson for a drink in the Last Chance Saloon.

24.14 Jason Adam, RP, ChC

Hmmph. When Pomeranz went down with forearm tightness, Keone Kela (24.12) was so obscure that I had to email Fred to get him included on the list of players. He was at the top of my scraping-the-bottom-of-the-barrel-for-potential-closers list here.

Jason Adam was mentioned on a sleeper list as being someone who might emerge from the rubble when Kimbrel goes down. That and a good spring were enuf to get him picked here.
163Toral
      ID: 9541311
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 10:09
25.03 Miguel Rojas, SS, Mia

What an injury day yesterday! I swear I didn't push Robbie Ray down the stairs so that Matz could take his position in the rotation. Then Fernando Tatis left the game with what turned out to be left shoulder discomfort and the injury day wasn't so funny, particularly as I had no backup shortstop. It appears Tatis will be fine, but I guess it's still prudent to have a backup shortstop.

This is my last rationale for my last Guru-led RIBC league. I thought that some musical accompaniment would be appropriate:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixEOMB6jyEE
164kdl212
      ID: 17825210
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 13:11
23.08 Yandy Diaz, 3B, TB
A bit surprised to see Yandy and his high OBP still available in round 23. Nevermind that he had a -7.9 launch angle last year. We all know gravity was especially strong last summer. The trouble is, the Rays are managed like my 10 year old's little league team - EVERYBODY PLAYS!!! Starters get substituted for in the 5th inning. So there's a likelihood that I'm getting 2-3 at-bats per start from him, and only when the Rays face a left-handed pitcher. Or, just maybe, he's a 5-day a week clean-up hitter. The other trouble is Wander Franco, who everybody thinks will be called up by June to play third base. At this point in the draft, I'll take 200 at-bats with a high OBP, and anything else is gravy.

Also considered a couple of upside OF picks like Franchy Cordero and Gregory Polanco, a couple of relievers (Keone Kela and some undrafteds), and a catcher. But everyone in this direction of the turn already has a catcher, and there were enough to choose from still that I was comfortable waiting.
165kdl212
      ID: 17825210
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 13:27
24.09 Omar Narvaez, C, MIL
Once Yasmani Grandal was picked, "Catcher Plan #1B" was activated, which is to not draft a catcher unless Sean Murphy was available in Round 20. When Murphy was picked in Round 19, I figured I would be filling my catcher slot after the draft from the waiver wire. But when my Round 24 pick came up, there was Narvaez sitting there. He offered a higher upside than any of the options sitting there (though I could imagine a dice-roll on a late-career gem from Posey). Before last year, he looked like a steady .360 OBP guy with variable power. Since 2 managers still needed a catcher on this turn, I decided to pull the trigger. I'm giving Narvaez a mulligan for his first year in the NL last year under crazy circumstances, and hoping he returns to his prior self.

I wasn't expecting to be padding my OBP this late -- usually by round 20 it's OBP killers who are left - but the late combo of Yandy Diaz and Narvaez might even raise my team's OBP.

Because this is RIBC, even Round 24 choices have consequences. I had a list of guys I still wanted to roster that included Yusei Kikuchi, Keone Kela, Gregory Polanco, and [two undrafted guys]. The only one I considered here was Kikuchi, who is on every other pitcher sleeper list I've seen for his underlying stats from last year. But I already have 7 starters (the Zac Gallen news of a fractured forearm was, confusingly, good news) so I decided to let him go, knowing he wouldn't make it back to me.
166kdl212
      ID: 17825210
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 13:35
25.08 Gregory Polanco, OF, PIT
I was *this* close to picking Luis Arraez, just for the sheer delight of snagging a trio of high OBP guys in the last 3 rounds of the draft. With Kiriloff sent down, Arraez could be getting regular at-bats at the start of the season in the leadoff spot. But maybe he's a 4-game a week guy. And apart from OBP, he doesn't offer much. So I went with a higher ceiling but much, much, much lower floor pick in Gregory Polanco. He was great in 2018, hurt his shoulder, and his been absolutely awful since. But the nerds, when they remove their glasses and squint, see some good statcast data (on those rare occasions he didn't swing and miss last year, he hit the ball hard) and several folks have him on their late-round flier lists. And so here I am. I took him in Round 17 last year, with the same optimism. Let's hope the results are better this time around.
167Meatwads
      ID: 202112412
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 13:39
16.11 Bobby Dalbec, 1B, BOS

Since I went heavy pitching early compared to most teams, I was always going to need to take some calculated gambles on offense in the mid/late rounds. Dalbec has shown himself to be a real power threat at the highest level. The sample size is small and there are strikeout issues. But he seems to possess a lot of the traits that play up in this league. I expect his OBP/SLG to be more than solid and his ultimate value will be determined by how high his counting stats in R/RBI go. Could be a decent CI option this year but has the upside to be a Top 10 first baseman if he works his way up the batting order.

17.06 Mitch Haniger, OF, SEA

Nothing fancy about this pick. I just saw it as a solid value at the stage of the draft we were at. Obviously, the injuries over the last couple of seasons have put a damper on Haniger. But he is seemingly healthy at this point and locked into an everyday job to begin the season. We're talking about a player who is 30-years old, has a career .348 OBP and .480 SLG% for his career. It's simply about staying healthy. If he does that, I think it will be a really nice pick. If he gets hurt again, just another easy cut.

18.11 Bobby Witt Jr, SS, KC

I made this selection with the understanding that the Royals are very high on Witt. Their willingness to bat him near the top of the lineup in Spring Training shows me they are preparing him for an early-season promotion. I don't have as much confidence in Witt working out this season as someone like Kelenic, but I am willing to stash him for a bit to see how it plays out. Could be an easy cut at some point or a key MI piece for me. Everything I have been able to gather suggests Witt will be called up and given an everyday job at 2B, with the flexibility to play some SS and OF as well. I think the Royals are going to give him a chance early and often. Considering we are nearly 300 picks deep in a league that values quality MI, it felt like an easy gamble to make. I can always back out if things aren't lining up.

19.06 Tejay Antone, SP/RP, CIN

There were "safer" options on the board. Pitchers that are highly likely to get me more innings. There is something about Antone that is drawing me to him. The Reds have talked about him breaking camp in the rotation, being in a multi-inning role after an opener, or potentially landing the closer job. I'm not exactly sure what is going to happen here but I am intrigued by all the possible avenues to fantasy value. I also appreciate what the Reds pitching development has done with some other players. I could see Antone being viewed in an entirely different light a year from now, or just another forgotten guy that I saw something in that wasn't really there.
168mmikulka
      ID: 4211332822
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 14:03
25.04 Tyler Rogers, RP, SF
He's no Trevor Rogers. Not even Taylor Rogers. He picked up a few saves last year, though, and yesterday Gabe Kapler named him (alongside Jake McGee) as a potential closer.
169Meatwads
      ID: 202112412
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 14:19
20.11 Josh Rojas, 2B, ARI

I needed another MI option that I felt relatively good about to back up Lux at 2B. Rojas is someone that came onto my radar a couple of years ago but he's never really been given a true opportunity. After noticing him doing well in the spring he is someone I had circled as a late-round target. I've seen him projected to leadoff and I've seen him projected to hit in the 5 hole. I suspect he will move around the lineup depending on the matchups and how well he is playing. His defensive versatility gives him a real shot of securing at least a super-utility role. There is a wide range of outcomes with this pick. Rojas could end up anything from an early-season cut to a useful multi-position player, to becoming a legitimate starting caliber 2B in mixed leagues.

21.06 Emmanuel Clase, RP, CLE

I am a big believer in Clase. The young man has an electric arm and seems to have a future as a dominant closer written all over him. Whether or not that shows itself this season is debatable. James Karinchak is also a really nice pitcher, so there is no guarantee that the role ever opens up this season. Should the opportunity present itself, I think Clase will be a popular add in all leagues. I suspect he will be a high-strikeout reliever who has solid standalone value. The possibility of saves being added to the mix adds to the allure.

22.11 Jose Alvarado, RP, PHI

Another late attempt at grabbing some saves. Alvarado has been dominant this spring and has worked his way into the closer discussion, according to the team. He definitely has the most electric arm in the bullpen. I am not overly confident he will earn the job, but at this stage in the draft, speculative closers are not a bad use of a pick if you don't feel like chasing saves off the free agents every time a rumor emerges. Basically, this is a low-risk, high-reward pick. If Alvarado emerges as the closer, it looks wonderful. If he doesn't, then he'll be replaced early by someone in a more advantageous position.
170Graydog
      ID: 521432422
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 15:06
22.06 Kelly, Carson - C - ARI

Ahhh the 3 catcher strategy...goes well with the three kicker strategy for NFL.

I just wanted a handcuff for the beginning of the year in case Realmuto's thumb isn't quite ready. I did see that he just homered in his first spring at bat so I'll take that as a sign that Kelly will likely be dropped for a reliever. After all, you can't have too many relievers or catchers.

23.11 Duffey, Tyler - RP - MIN

Duffey has put up excellent stats the past 2 years and will round out my modern day pitching staff where everyday is a bullpen day. He also is a handcuff for my earlier pick of Colome.

PS. KDL when you need some saves, come and see me and we can work something out:)

24.06 Eaton, Adam - OF - CHW

Looking for some batting depth. I was surprised to read that Eaton is only 32, he seems like he is older then that, likely due to the injury history. If he stays on my roster he should provide positive OBP contribution without hurting elsewhere and maybe get me a bag or two.

I strongly considered all available undrafted relievers...

25.11 Renfroe, Hunter - OF - BOS

More batting depth. I likely won't keep Renfroe and Eaton but we will see. I liked the move to Fenway for Renfroe as he seems built to loft fly balls into and over the monster.

I considered undrafted, undrafted, undrafted, undrafted and undrafted relievers...
171youngroman
      ID: 515013
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 15:06
17.12 Willi Adames, SS, TB
for a SS Adames had good numbers last season (.332 OBP, .481 SLG). He is still young, so he could get even better. The only problem is that he plays the same position as baseballs #1 prospect Wander Franco, which will be called up at some point. The question is what will happen with Adames playing time when this happens. is he good enough early on to get moved to a different position? do they trade him? I sit there and hopefully enjoy the ride until Franco appears. then I need to re-assess.

18.05 Austin Hays, OF, BAL
he is crushing the ball in spring training. He is a starter for now. He only needs to carry that spring into the regular season.
He showed in 2019 what he is capable of.

19.12 Chris Sale, SP, BOS
after the draft we are allowed to put one of our players on IL. I thought if I should wait for someone to get injured during the season or to get a player that I know is injured and will return at some point, hopefully sooner than later.
I compiled a list of potential players, like Sale, Syndergaard, #undrafted# and some more. Had not initially decided when to go to this list, but since the available players are all very uncertain in their performance or playing time, I though that it might be time to pick this injured player. Sale topped my list. He is expected back by the end of May or early June. It is a bit of a gamble if he will come back as strong as he was before, but I guess 50% of the season from Sale are worth more than 100% of the season from an average pitcher available here.

20.05 Yimi Garcia, RP, MIA
backup to Anthony Bass who was not yet named the official closer. If Bass loses his job, Yimi will take over. He has a good K-rate, the expected ERA/WHIP won't hurt. A perfect candidate this late in the draft. I now need the Marlins to get lots of close wins for my duo to rack up some saves each.

21.12 Isian Kiner-Falefa, 3B/SS, TEX
I need to fill my void at MI at some point. Ideally I need 2 players to fill that void because I need to backup 2B and SS as well and 3 players won't do. So I need 2 players in the last 5 rounds for 2B and SS.

I researched which potential options are out there. the remaining players are not great options, but the pool of players gets thinner every round, so some of you believe that the value of some players is far better than the value of others. I don't see that much difference, but I need to take one before the pool of players that will see regular playing time is really empty and I struggle to get the games played in during the season.

Kiner-Falefa's numbers were not pretty the last few seasons, and this years projections don't see him improving much. His big plus is playing time. playing time means counting stats. There are some news about him changing his approach with the bat, but who knows if this improves things or make them even worse. This could give him the boost to be relevant in fantasy this year. I will monitor this situation and don't mind in dumping him for the 2nd or 3rd great pickup of the season.

22.05 Austin Slater, OF, SF
not a good 24 hours for closers: Kirby Yates, Jose Leclerc, Joely Rodriguez. their potential successors are not yet known and there is a lot of speculation who they might be. I can't pick any of the rumored players at this point.

playing time for Slater might be an issue, but it seems he will be given the chance to see more playing time this year. he only needs to use it. knowing that he will see almost all starts against lefties I know when to put him in there. When in the lineup he steals more bases than many others, even improves my teams OBP at the cost of SLG. but you can't expect everything this late in the draft

23.12. Kwang-Hyun Kim, SP, STL
in search of a late pitching gem I came up with Kwang-Hyun Kim. He pitched well last year in his first season in MLB and if he is a nearly as good as he was in 2020 he can surprise many.

when researching pitchers for this pick I got an unusual amount of "Our European visitors are important to us" on various sites. What is up with all these American media outlets? it seems they don't give a shit about us Europeans. I also have the feeling that the sites that are not available to us is growing and growing. the GDPR is now there for 3 years, so you can assume they will never opt in to the concept of data privacy. F... You!

24.05 Kevin Newman, 2B/SS, PIT
he is hitting lights out in spring training. He seems to be the regular SS in Pittsburgh. He is eligible at both MI positions. What is not to like about him?

Thought about starting pitching, like #undrafted# and Jefferies, but I was still missing a 2nd 2B so Newman fits better. There is hope one of them will be there in the next round. or a RP gets a surprise closing gig.

25.12 Daulton Jefferies, SP, OAK
we are throwing darts now. I just pick a top prospect with lots of potential that had a fantastic spring. Its anybody's guess how long he will retain his spot on my roster. Hopefully for a full season.
172Da Bomb
      Donor
      ID: 487112814
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 15:45
21.14 Drew Smyly, SP, ATL

Smyly threw an enticing 26.1 IP last season where he had a 3.42 ERA 2.01 FIP 1.10 WHIP and added 2.5 MPH to his fastball which led him to over 14 K/9. Only a couple of his starts went at least 5 IP, but the Braves front office liked what they saw as they couldn’t wait to give him $11M as the first free agent signed to switch teams this past offseason.

22.03 Stefan Crichton, RP, ARI

Soria hasn’t been named the closer and it seems he is battling with Crichton, who performed admirably in the role last season after Archie Bradley was traded. He hasn’t yet given up a run this Spring fwiw. I also made this pick minutes before the Leclerc news came out and was deciding between Crichton and an arm in Texas as Leclerc had not been named closer either, but the next best Ranger option was less clear.

23.14 Kyle Crick, RP, PIT

At this point I don’t see any bats I need to draft over someone I could pick up for a matchup play or hot start early in the season or an SP who would sit on my bench until I felt comfortable starting him and thus I would likely use a streamer before then, so I will take another stab at a small potential case of early saves. Rodriguez has not been named closer and has struggled this Spring, so Crick has a chance of taking the role.

24.03 Reyes Moronta, RP, SF

In the chance the Giants use their best lefty reliever McGee earlier in games, Moronta could find himself in play for save opportunities.

25.14 Luis Severino, SP, NYY

Chances are virtually zero that Severino will last on my roster until he’s healthy as I will need the IL spot for someone else, but until then I will stash him and pick up a FA post draft. I have that someone in mind, but it’s probably not a good idea to talk about him yet.
173Meatwads
      ID: 202112412
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 17:06
23.06 Carter Kieboom, 3B, WSH

Third base was the last infield spot I didn't have a backup yet, so I took the gamble on Keiboom. The early returns in his career are mediocre at best, and I can't say I am super excited to land him. He is someone who was viewed as a top prospect a couple of years ago, the organization seems to like him, he's penciled in to start despite the early struggles. I do think Keiboom will become a worthy fantasy player at some point. I just can't say with confidence if this will be the season it begins to appear.

24.11 Dylan Cease, SP, CHW

This is one of my deep sleepers this season. I've talked with some smart pitching people who see the ingredients for a full-blown breakout. Pitching is inherently risky and pitching half your games in Chicago isn't ideal. But he does have an elite fastball with an elite spin rate. He's also being coached by the same people who got Lucas Giolito to the ace-tier. There were a couple of other pitchers I considered as well but felt none of them brought the upside of Cease if it actually clicks. My confidence isn't super high but intrigued enough to take a deep stab and see what happens early.

25.06 Buster Posey, C, SF

I strongly considered taking another position I already had filled and bypassing drafting a catcher all together. Ultimately, I decided to give the spot to Buster Posey since I will need to fill the position by opening day anyway. He was the catcher on the board with the best track record, the best spot in his team's lineup, and the player I suspect will have the most ABs. How the mighty has fallen. I will be pleasantly surprised if he survives all season on my roster.
174mailedfoot
      ID: 15118199
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 18:25
23.09 Zach Davies, SP, CHC
Davis is lined up to be the number 3 starter for the Cubbies and pitched well last year. Projection systems don’t expect a repeat but he’s something of a Kyle Hendricks mini-me and sits among the best of the remaining starter options according to some of the experts I have been following.

24.08 Tim Locastro, OF, ARI
Locastro is making some noise in spring training and figures to be at least platooning in the Diamondback outfield to start the year. ZiPS has him for a .348/.406 line with 20 SB so I am hoping they are on the mark with that projection.

25.09 Luis Arraez, 2B, MIN
I guess I will be rooting for Minnesota this year as Arraez becomes the 4th Twins player on my roster. Somewhat surprised he was still available in the last round as he has excellent OBP skills. Talk is he will be a utility type player so I’m hoping he gains eligibility at some other positions.
175holt
      ID: 491153264
      Thu, Mar 25, 2021, 03:50
23.16 Cooper, Garrett 1B MIA

I tell you he gets no respect. Cooper deserved to be in the majors when he was younger. He finally got a chance in 2019 at age 28 and delivered. He deserves to be ranked and drafted higher in fantasy baseball and hopefully he proves that this season. At 6'5" you'd think he would have more holes his swing but he's a very well-rounded hitter with no extreme splits. I think the Marlins will get him in the lineup on a regular basis and he will gain OF eligibility. He may end up being dealt this summer. The Dodgers have already been trying to acquire him. His .283 .353 .500 line last season was no fluke.



24.01 Frazier, Adam 2B PIT

I don't have much to say about Frazier. I need someone to hold down 2B for a short while and Frazier starts every day and should have a good spot in the lineup.



25.16 400 Skubal, Tarik SP DET

Big lefty with high 90's heat and good command. 10.4 K/9 and 1.22 WHIP in 7 MLB starts last season. 13.2 K/9 2.11 ERA and 0.99 WHIP are his career minor league numbers. Hoping he becomes Mr. Relevant.
176s R
      ID: 5970131
      Thu, Mar 25, 2021, 03:52
24.04 Cordero, Franchy - BOS - OF

It sounds like he’ll be back up to full heath sooner than expected, if he’s not already. This season with the Red Sox might be his last chance to prove the power/speed combo that he flashed in minor league.

25.13 Staumont, Josh - KC - RP

If he could somehow walk batters at a more palatable rate — say ten percent — Kansas City has got themselves a real stud.
178Nerfherders
      ID: 56261418
      Thu, Mar 25, 2021, 11:08
24.07 Victor Gonzalez RP LAD
I would have a preferred a pitcher in the line for saves, but I'll take a productive pitcher here instead. A situational lefty who does his job. He should be fine here.

25.10 Sam Hilliard, OF COL
I would have taken a backup catcher here to pair with McCann, but circumstances forced my hand. I needed an OF. I was prepared to take Heyward here, and hope his excellent 2020 meant he finally figured out how to hit. But, I found Hilliard, an up and comer who seems to have the starting CF job in COL. He was awful last year, but his track record before that was excellent, so maybe there's something here. At 25.10, it's basically an FA pickup, so it doesn't matter too much if he fails or gets sent down.
179maspero
      ID: 14211918
      Thu, Mar 25, 2021, 18:20
8.10 Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF, TOR
After a good 2019, Gurriel solidified his play in 2020. Hard for him to repeat the .348 OBP, buoyed by a .351 BABIP, but his slugging number should stay high, or maybe improve… since dreaming is free.
9.07 Franmil Reyes, DH, CLE
Typical slugger, with the usual plethora of Ks and the less usual ground ball percentage to limit his ceiling. Hoping to correct the latter to survive the former, and waiting for him to play some games in the outfield to lose the “DH-only” tag.
10.10 Zach Plesac, SP, CLE
Who knows if Plesac is the good not great 2019 version or the great 2020 version. Even if he is a candidate to partially retrace from last year numbers, I think he is a young guy on the way to establish himself as a number two or number three starter.
11.07 Rafael Montero, RP, SEA
Needing a number two reliever, I went for the good player with the role all for himself, but with the danger of being traded away. Unless a young Seattle team lasts in contention until after the trading deadline, or he gets traded to a team in search for a closer and not a setup man.
12.10 Salvador Perez, C, KC
I never owned Perez in my life as fantasy manager, and did not think I would this year. However, sitting there at 186, why not pull the trigger on a very steady, if unspectacular, contributor. 2020 OBP was a mirage built on cobwebs, but I think the 186 position has a natural regression already built in.
13.07 Austin Riley, 3B, ATL
Needing a 3b, I went with Riley’s upside. Had better contact in 2020, sacrificing power, even if not shown by a .301 OBP. Hoping for OBP to correct itself and for exit velocity increase to conduce to better power numbers.
14.10 Kyle Lewis, OF, SEA
Young player not as good as the first month of 2020 season, but not as bad of last month of 2020 season. I would feel good if he can play in the middle. Good sign the increase of BB%.
180Fosten
      ID: 3111131015
      Sat, Mar 27, 2021, 12:14
1.01 (1) Ronald Acuna Jr. OF ATL
Consensus 1.1 is not Mike Trout? Weird. I never really had a chance to own Acuna in any leagues, so I figured I'd see what all the hype is about. Hmmm... OPS of .931, I like that. 118 RBI, I like that. 28 SB, I like that. 0 saves, WTH? This guy seems like a horrible pitcher. I guess I can forgive him for that, but the Braves? That means he has to face Noah Syndergaard like maybe twice this year. That's not going to work out well for Acuna! SZ was surprised I didn't take Syndergaard here, so I figured I'd at least mention that I was thinking about Syndergaard at 1.1. Maybe try and catch Noah on the way back at 2.16. Look out below!

2.16 (32) Luis Robert OF CWS
Wow Syndergaard still on the board! Ok fine, let's double down on OF early, and then never take one again. Make sure you hold me to that, please. (Wait, is there somebody else here? Who am I talking to? Is this call coming from inside my house?) Probably should have taken Eloy's projected .548 SLG, but Lou Rob's .634 SLG in AAA seemed primed for a bigger breakout. A highly touted international prospect for years, Robert seems like an easy 30-30. My only issue is that OF aren't very valuable in RIBC, because there are so many available on the wire. There are 90 starting outfielders in major league baseball and we only draft 64 of them. We really should consider adding an extra OF to the starting lineup. It's consistently the easiest position to fill in RIBC.

3.01 (33) Rafael Devers 3B BOS
I own Devers in several leagues. His ADP seems too low this year. Shoulda went in the top 20. .859 OPS? Silly. Looks like a case where other players moved up in the rankings, and Devers moved down by default. No regression here. Still the same ol' top 20 pick at a better price.

4.16 (64) Matt Chapman 3B OAK
Well lookie here, Chapman falling all the way back around the long way, 31 picks later. I was thinking of taking him last time, and doubling up on 3B, but wanted the double-up on OF more. Heck, let's just go ahead and double up on both! Castellanos would have been a great pick here also. Next year, remind me not to take 2 OF early. Still holding out hope that Chapman ends up on the Mets at some point. That lineup is scary, but adding another 40 HR makes it terrifying.

5.01 (65) Ketel Marte 2B ARI
I keep hearing about Ketel. I only know Starling. Both are cool names. Can't wait for Starling Ketel to debut. Young kid out of Ohio, looks great, the next big thing. Look him up! But for real doe, a 2B with a .823 OPS going in round 5? Shizz, sign me up, son. That's like DJ LeMahieu money! I'm not big into drafting 2B early, if at all. But like a babyface wrestler, Kettle needs the shine, so I'll lay down and look up at the lights. And your NEWWWW World Tag Team Champion of the World! Marte Superkick Party!

6.16 (96) Giancarlo Stanton UTL NYY
Hi my name is Fosten and I'm an OFaholic. Hi Fosten! I mean, I want to stop, but I just can't resist Giancarlo at 96. Yowzers. His .875 OPS shoulda gone top 10. I know this addiction is not only hurting my family and friends and my teammates, but it's hurting me as well. Giancarlo can't get hurt every year. Can he? Maybe we could hurt together? Just one sip. How many OF have I had already this draft? 2 that I can count. This would be my 3rd. I can still drive home. I'll be fine.

7.01 (97) Wander Franco SS TAM
Fosten, you're drunk again. I know, I know. Way too early. But he's on my team. And that's what counts. I read somewhere that he was the first ever player MLB gave a 80 hit tool on the 20-80 scale. I'm taking the over on Franco getting called up early in the season and being a top 30 player by year's end. And most importantly, he doesn't play OF!

8.16 (128) Miguel Sano 1B MIN
Big bopper. Another player being taken way too low in drafts this year, and last year, and the year before! Look, I get it, the .204 average is slightly better than Mendoza's average. But, this aint an AVG league. Ok, I get it, the .278 OBP is slightly better than Mendoza's OBP. But this aint a... wait. Did I mention the .576 SLG in 2019? Sano was always the best HR hitter coming up through the minors, and it's time to finally show that he's slightly better than Joey Gallo.

9.01 (129) Julio Urias SP LAD
I own Julio Urias in every league possible. Love him. I could care less if he starts or not. He is probably more valuable in fantasy as a long-reliever than as a starter. This is a sub-2.00 pitcher moving forward. He'll be in the Cy Young conversation this year, and you'll be like wait when did that breakout happen? And then you'll read back through my rationales and think, "That Fosten. He really knows his shiznit." Don't call it a breakout, he's been here for years. 2.49 ERA in 2019 was only a start.

10.16 (160) Kyle Schwarber OF WAS
Ok this is my last OF I swear. I'm quitting tomorrow. You guys do know that Schwarber and his .851 OPS should be a top 30 pick in this league, right? I don't even like Schwarber. blue hen has been trying to trade me Schwarber in g20 for like 7 years. I don't want him! But in RIBC, this guy is legit. And I was just tired of seeing him sit out there. C'mon, man!

11.01 (161) Jordan Hicks RP STL
This is Fosten's closer. I don't understand why Gallegos is ranked higher. You do understand that Carlos Martinez is the closer in St. Louis right? Wait, WTH did I draft Hicks? Stay away from the Cardinals bullpen this year. Oh right. This is Fosten's closer.

12.16 (192) Amir Garrett RP CIN
Dangit. Meatwads took Gavin Lux shortly after I picked Schwarber/Hicks. I had picked Lux at 233 in another draft, Meatwads took him 166 here. Thought I could wait one round more. Nope. Good pick Meatwads. Time to look elsewhere. At this point, my offense is strong, there are tons of SP left, so might as well continue building up the pen. I like watching Amir pitch. Lots of fire and intensity. As a Pirates fan, I see alot of him in the NL Central. And if he's closing now, I'm investorated!

13.01 (193) Matt Barnes RP BOS
3 closers in a row. It's my very own closer run! I mean, they say he'll close. And I remember his name from last year's draft. That's about all I know. Ottavino seems like the better pick. I'm mostly just throwing darts here.

14.16 (224) Jameson Taillon SP NYY
Garrett Cole be like, "Yo Yanks. You should sign Tailllon. He dope." Yeah Jameo should be solid again. Was he ever not solid? Pretty sure he was always solid. Both before and after the TJ. I'm glad the Pirates made the trade, because he would have been 45 years old by the time the current crop of prospects mature. [(age of player) plus (we only make the playoffs every 21 years) minus (we're already 5 years into the next drought)]. I'm very happy to draft my SP1 in round 14.

15.01 (225) Andrew Vaughn 1B CWS
Not to be content with Devers, Chapman, and Sano, I still have room for one more CI. This CI can play UTIL once Stanton gets OF eligibility. White Sox seem committed to signing every top prospect to a long-term extension. This shouldn't be any different. Wouldn't be surprised if he makes the opening day roster. Steal this late. Filthy.

16.16 (256) Alex Reyes RP STL
I own Alex Reyes in every league possible. Love him. What happens to a once-in-a-generation pitcher after a few years on the shelf? Post-post-hype breakouts are even bigger, yo. This is a 2.25 ERA pitcher moving forward. Remember how I said Jordan Hicks was Fosten's closer? Alex Reyes is why. Either Reyes is a top 10 starter in baseball, or he's the 2nd best long-reliever in baseball (behind Urias), or he's is the #1 closer in baseball. I want all the Cardinals saves and Jordan Hicks sets up this pick. Alex Reyes is Fosten's closer!

17.01 (257) Mckenzie, Triston SP CLE
Ok, I want at least one team where I own both Triston McKenzie and Mackenzie Gore. So this is the Mckenzie you're supposed to take first? Weird. Mackenzie Gore used to be the higher rated prospect. I think he still is. Ya'll are putting too much stock into 2020 stats. So I guess I have to take the Triston one here and hope the Gore one makes it back.

18.16 (288) MacKenzie Gore SP SDG
M(a)cKenzie squared! Workred out well. I love these "bullpen to start the year" guys. Quality innings in April and May from someone who has mega upside and isn't an obscure reliever. Yes! I remember when the Padres went out and got Machado, because they wanted someone to play alongside Tatis. I remember when the Padres signed a bunch of pitchers, because they wanted someone to play alongside Gore.

19.01 (289) Jonathan Villar SS NYM
Cheap 50 steals. Ok, maybe not 50 steals. But like 48 1/2. He's a temporary substitute before Wander comes up, and if the Mets don't play him enough, I can cut him without remorse. If he does somehow work his way into being the spark of the offense, all the better.

20.16 (320) Alejandro Kirk C TOR
I don't usually draft catchers, but when I do, I like em short and thick. A 5'8" 265 lb catcher? Sign me up! Alejandro has all the makings of an internet meme, and the Blue Jays like his bat enough to make him their DH. This is the pick I think will be the most fun. And catchers are rarely fun.

21.01 (321) Mike Soroka SP ATL
These Atlanta pitchers seem all the same. Good. In 2019, Soroka turned in a 2.68 ERA. A little high for the pitching staff I've assembled so far haha, but it'll do. I hope this pick doesn't become my Achilles Heel, but I'm sure Soroka's will be just fine.

22.16 (352) Amed Rosario SS CLE
I was thinking Framber Valdez with this pick, but SZ grabbed him right in front of me. Well, I guess I have to take another temporary SS until Wander comes up. Nobody likes Amed? Eh, a trip away from New York will do you Wanders... Wanders! Get it? Haha. Hey, he's had some misadventures in centerfield so far, but I'm betting the change of scenery is good in the end.

23.01 (353) Michael Kopech SP CWS
Another "Bullpen to start the year." guy. This is a ridiculously low ADP for Kopech. Before the injury he was a top 3 prospect. I don't mind taking these returning TJ guys. Great value when everyone else sleeps on them. Kopech has had 2 years of rest and should be back at peak performance. Maybe he can finally get his brain off women and pitch again.

24.16 (384) Chistian Pache OF ATL
Noooo! I missed out on Syndergaard. Haha. mmkukla got a heck of a deal taking The Terminator at 356. Ah well, there's always next year. Guess I'll grab some OF lottery tickets at the RIBC register on my way out to go with my OF beer and whiskey. I personally think Pache will always be too highly ranked in fantasy, because his defense is so highly touted. Yet, we don't get points for defense? Hey I'm proposing a new rule, any players drafted in the 24th round, get extra points for defense! Except catchers, this doesn't mean you!

25.01 (385) Jo Adell OF LAA
One more OF shot for the road! I don't expect him to start the year with the Angels, and I don't expect to own him past week 1. Just drafted him, so he was forced to go through waivers again. But I do like Jo Adell, so you better not scoop him up on waivers, or worse yet add him through free agency or I'll be really sad. Or is this some sort of Fosten mind trick? Does he secretly think Adell won't be good this year and he wants me to waste a roster spot? I'm so confused!
181maspero
      ID: 5815687
      Mon, Mar 29, 2021, 09:05
15.07 Mark Melancon, RP, SDP
A declining relief pitcher drafted (maybe too high) with the hope that his experience could earn him a ninth inning role in a good team.
16.10 J.D. Davis, 3D, NYM
A talented hitter who could have been helped by the universal DH rule in the NL, given his lack of defensive aptness. Lost some power last season, but his eye guaranteed a good OBP. A rebound in the power category perfectly in the realm of possibilities.
17.07 Jose Urquidy, SP, HOU
A solid pitcher, even if last year ERA and WHIP could have been bolstered by the abnormal schedule. A regression to his normal numbers could give back some value, at the slot I have picked him.
18.10 Cesar Hernandez, 2B, CLE
A perpetually underrated player, Hernandez keeps on providing late value as a top of the order guy, thanks to a good OBP. If only he would steal some bases…
182maspero
      ID: 5815687
      Wed, Mar 31, 2021, 06:10
19.07 Jesus Aguilar, 1B, MIA
Cheap CI, whose power numbers (remember the great 2018 season in Milwaukee) are not helped by his home stadium. To put in the lineup on the road ideally.
20.10 Jurickson Profar, 2B-OF, SDP
Double role player, with the pedigree of a former top prospect who did not go on to live to the high expectations, to get some depth to my roster. I hope the 21 millions SD paid for him will not rest on the bench.
21.07 Lorenzo Cain, OF, MIL
I drafted the 2018 Cain, I hope that’s understood… Looking for a last hurrah year after a bad 2019 and a non-existent 2020.
22.10 Matt Bush, RP, TEX
Speculative add after injuries to the Rangers’ bullpen. Could come up with some save.
23.07 Tanner Rainey, RP, WAS
Good RP, who seems second in line in Washington after Hand. At round 23 a clear cut second in line is draftable.
24.10 Randal Grichuk, OF, TOR
Had him last year, when he had a sneaky decent year, including a palatable OBP to go with his usual good power numbers. Ready to cut him if the OBP goes too south to be sustainable.
25.07 Cristian Javier, SP, HOU
Young pitcher with a good upside. And by the way the most owned pitcher of the pool…
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