RotoGuru Baseball Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread


Self-edit this thread


0 Subject: RIBC 2021: Draft Recap

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 18:25

RIBC Managers: This thread is for your (optional) overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say.

1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Non-managers are also free to post comments or ask questions.
1Seattle Zen
      ID: 301361318
      Wed, Mar 24, 2021, 18:33
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Once I knew I had the second pick and that I was going to end up with either Juan Soto or Mike Trout, I started mapping out my strategy from that point forward. I knew I didn’t want to take another outfielder for a few rounds, I prefer to fill out my outfield with later picks as I have found there are more profitable options later in the draft out in the outfield rather than the infield.
I am going to take the best players at pick number 31 and 34 and if I end up with three bats I am okay with that. I think it is unlikely that I end up drafting one of the early closers, I like how in both baseball in general and fantasy baseball closers are no longer absolutely vital. More teams are going with closers by committee. There are far fewer pitchers ending the season with 30 or more saves and many more ending with 5 to 8 saves. Yes, looking backwards you will find that the top three or four closers provided profit but it is far from certain who those three or four will be. I’ll likely wait and be one of the last squads to speculate in the closer market.
This is my third crack at RIBC and I was relegated each of the first two attempts. I may allow myself more risk this time in the hopes of scoring big. The type of risk I envision is taking a chance on A Mondesi in the second round, probably not risking draft choice on Wander Franco or Jered Kelenic, though.
Last year I promised myself that I would draft Teoscar Hernandez and that certainly worked out. This year my bold outfielder pick will be either Adam Duval or Josh Naylor. Maybe both. I like Duval batting cleanup in Miami, he has enough power to hit over 30 homers for the Fish and should accumulate plenty of runs/rbi. I also like Naylor’s upside as a slugger playing right everyday for the Cleveland Baseball Club.
The only catcher I like this season is Will Smith. If he falls enough I will grab him, otherwise I think the rest of the group as a whole is crap and I may wait until the bitter end to fill that slot. Followed through on that.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I guess my favorite picks are Andrew McCutchen and Jared Walsh but I often find these preseason “Favorites” are LOLs by the time you review them in October. I have already bemoaned the fact that I missed out on the Mighty Kim and wished I had taken him instead of Zach Eflin.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I’d have to say Foot’s. He has a great infield, four solid outfielders, great value in his bullpen, huge upside at his UTL. His rotation is questionable after Giolito but all of them have some touts singing their praises. Guru’s squad is also looking tough. He squeezed a lot of pitching value in the second half of the draft. There are more teams that I think are poor than I like – Fosten’s squad is hot garbage. Like most years, it looks like he thinks this is a dynasty league. Outside of Tatis and Voit, I don’t like Toral’s bats at all. I’ve stated numerous times I didn’t like graydog’s bullpen only notion.

All of that said, it really doesn’t matter who holt or kdl212 draft, they outhustle us every season. You don’t stay up in The Bigs every year for 11 straight without being one of the best managers during the season, only kdl212 has done that. And I watched holt embarrass everyone in AAA in 2019 as he was mired in 15th place around the All Star break but came back to win it.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I guess just how early in the draft the first closer run occurred and how universal was the disdain for starting pitching.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
If we were going to do this whole thing over again I may consider taking F Tatis Jr. and seeing how my squad would emerge from that starting point.
2JeffG
      ID: 44182712
      Thu, Mar 25, 2021, 11:04

1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My goal is to always try to draft balacing hitting and pitching along the way.

On the hitting side, I tend to focus on the ratios when making my choice, I tend to de-value steals-only type players, trying instead to build my SB from players who bring more to the table. I do not want to be caught without addressing MI early, and do not care if i wait until the end on catcher. I feel like I succeeded. I am not in love with any of my second half of the draft hitters, but I do not hate them either. I ended up going catcher early (Smith 9.05) because it seemed right when I did it.

On pitching, for SP I have always thought it important to have an anchor from one of the top pitchers on the board, lean towards strikeout pitchers. On the RP side, I am not good chasing saves so I do not want to get caught behind a closer run, but I feel no need to grab a top one. Then for MR, I no longer reach early for the great studs, they are just too volatile from year-to-year. Instead try to get an handcuff for my RP. Taking the Kirby Yates Tommy John issue off the table I got my 2 middle tier closers, so was satisfied. But I did not look to get a handcuff for either until it was too late. But that is ok, I have other closers handcuffs. During the draft I feel like I got a good top of the rotation SP core (Bauer, Carrasco, Gray) although the latter two are now fighting various spring injuries, and the start of season may be in doubt.



2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I guess Max Muncey 5.05 who has 2B eligibility so that increases his value.

I got Carlos Carrasco at 7.05 when I was looking at him two rounds earlier.

I had some 'middle/late outfielder' targets (McCutchen, Frazier, Mancini) who did not make it to where I would have taken them. So I filled my last OF slots later than everyone else.



3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
The most interesting team is graydog. Wins being harder to predict, he probably felt there were no need for starters. We'll see. But I do like the team of hitters he assembled. Similarly, Guru and mmikulka ignored starters for the first 8 picks, but ended up with a nice looking core of SP.




4. What surprised you most about the draft?
There was no rush for starting pitchers and catchers in this draft. Even when there were players I though should have been grabbed at certain points of the draft.

I was surprised so few players I passed on did not make it back to me in the middle and latter rounds. Usually I seem to be on a different wavelength than the other managers, but my queues I'd set after each pick were pretty picked over when it got back to me.

Also, I thought the pacing was great. There were no real repeatedly sluggish managers. In past years there were always a name or two that would take the full window each round



5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Well, the obvious one is grabbing Kirby Yates at 6.12 who is now out for 2021. But other than that I think I'm ok... It was a weird draft for me in the second half as I felt like I did not really love anyone in my queue where I was upset that did not make it to me.



Overall... I hope that this RIBC format and the managers in the 3 leagues continue beyond this season. Lets find a way to make it happen.

I've been in the RIBC majors I believe 4 prior times and have not earned an invite back due to finishing in the second half of the standings, but the 6 out of 7 times I was in AAA or AA, I have earned promotion. Trying to break this trend this year.
3Graydog
      ID: 521432422
      Thu, Mar 25, 2021, 14:32
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

As I have done for the past several years in this format, I came into the draft planning to punt K's and Wins. Apparently, it is called the Marmol strategy. I chose this strategy a few years ago as I was having a baby and I had a toddler coincidentally having surgery at the same time. I knew my time to look into players would be minimal, so I figured that if I avoided starters it would reduce my research time. I have enjoyed the strategy since and have had success with it. Essentially, I want to finish with at least an average of 13 points in 8 categories and 1 point in the two I punt. These exact totals would be 106 and a chance at winning the pool. Obviously, everything needs to fall into place for a win, but I do think the strategy is a pretty fool proof way to finish in the top half. It would take my batters to completely fall flat to tank to the bottom. One thing with RIBC is there is very little bench and no IL (usually). I think this strategy works in this situation as I will have more depth to cover injuries in the areas I am trying to compete in.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Abreu 3.11, Myers 8.06 for my positive first half picks and late guys I liked were Pagan (16.06) France (17.11) and Andrus (19.11). Romano at 20.06 seems like a great pick but that is more fluke due to the Yates injury.
Castellanos, Donaldson and Moore in rounds 5, 7 and 9 all have more risk then I would like. Injury for the older guys and success for Moore.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I haven’t looked over all of the rosters but a projection system I am trying out this year likes Seattle, Mikulka and Rotten Amoebas.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The only thing that surprises me in these drafts is how slow the last few rounds go. I don’t understand why people don’t just set some queues for the tail end of the draft. In the first half I understand why you want to know exactly who has been picked before selecting but in the last 100 picks this doesn’t seem important to me.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

If I had an earlier draft slot I may have taken Degrom and completely changed my strategy. I think he will be a stud this year. Maybe the only guy (Cole possibly as well) who will throw 200 innings.

This is my favorite fantasy format, we need to make sure it continues. It has lots of dedicated managers. If Guru steps down I hope someone takes it on.
4mmikulka
      ID: 4211332822
      Sat, Mar 27, 2021, 21:43
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I typically have a few tenets for RIBC:
-take scarce positions (MI) and categories (SB/SV) early, wait on SP/OF because they're by far the easiest to find during the season
-draft at least 2-1/2 closers, including at least one of the top tier
-if one of my top few catchers falls, take him: if not, it's the 25th round / streaming
-draft for reliability early and upside/rebound candidates in the mid-late rounds
-if possible, get a backup at CI, MI, and OF

This year, with the extra roster slot, IL slot, and lower innings limit, I had another two goals:
-get one of Syndergaard, Sale, and Severino to stash on IL
-draft a RP-heavy team since they can comprise a higher-than-normal percentage of my innings.

Results:

-I missed out on SB and MI in the first 2 rounds when Mondesi didn't reach me at 2.13. MI continued to go very rapidly and I made the decision to wait on it and try to draft where I saw value, which was 3 OF in the first 5 rounds. Fortunately there was a period in the mid-late rounds where everybody stopped drafting MI and I was able to get 3 that I am fairly happy with.

-I think I managed to be solid in SB by drafting many players who are projected for slightly above average totals, though a lot is resting on Myles Straw (who I have very little faith in).

-I finished with roughly 2-1/4 closers: less than my target level, but this was a particularly uncertain year, and I did get my top choice with Hader.

-I got my top catcher in the 12th round

-There's more volatility than normal in my early round picks with Bregman in the 2nd and Arozarena/Kimbrel/Ohtani in the 5th-7th. I have a whole lot of upside in the late rounds with Kluber, Benintendi, Ray, Bumgarner, and Syndergaard all having a fairly recent history of top-tier production. I also took plenty of rebound candidates in Ohtani, Greinke, Cron, DeJong, and Polanco.

-I have backups at CI and OF but not MI. I picked MI late enough that I couldn't find a second non-awful 2B.

-I was able to get Syndergaard, who was my top IL target because he is expected to return in June compared to July/August for Severino/Sale

-I have 7 RP on my team currently, though I wish they were higher quality and I had ended up with targets like Fairbanks and Trevor May.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Favorites:
-Zach Greinke (8.13)
-CJ Cron (10.13)
-Yasmani Grandal (12.13)
-Robbie Ray (18.13)
-Madison Bumgarner (20.13)

Last year 4 of my 5 favorite picks played awful, so...

Like to do over:
-Alex Bregman (2.13)
-Craig Kimbrel (6.13)
-Joey Votto (9.04)

I don't necessarily want to do them over, but I have less confidence in them than I would like to have at their respective draft positions

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

-Mailedfoot's team looks fairly well-rounded
-I still don't expect Graydog's Marmolian team to contend for 1st place, but gaining Romano and Pagan as probable closers post-draft gives him a chance when I think he otherwise would have had none.
-Eserel's team looks good if Gallegos and Neris turn out to be the closers
-DaBomb's team could have ridiculous pitching
-Guru's team looks great other than SP and the back end of the OF, and I expect him to find quality options there over the course of the season
-I don't like almost anybody on Holt's team but I expect him to be a top contender anyway

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

How quickly MIs went in the first half of the draft, particularly after the top tier was gone. I realize that RIBC is somewhat notorious for valuing MI highly, but in most years I find myself among the earliest to pick them anyway.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

It would have been interesting to have chosen an earlier slot and drafted Tatis: I'm tentatively satisfied with how my MI and SB turned out, though.
5kdl212
      ID: 17825210
      Sun, Mar 28, 2021, 02:31
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I approached this draft a little different than past drafts. I decided to lean into starting pitching more than I usually do. It's against one of my strengths, which is in-season waiver wire pitching. Indeed, I regularly find myself at the end of May with 3 healthy starters, last in innings pitched, and then roar back over the summer as I finally put a staff together. But I don't see myself paying as close attention in-season this year. And I expect quality innings to be at a greater premium this year than in the past. So I drafted more starters.'

Other than Zac Gallen in round 4, which I regretted the moment I made it (and it only got worse when he got injured, and it got even worse when Eugenio Suarez became a shortstop), I'm certainly more optimistic about my staff than I've ever been coming out of a draft. But who knows.

On the hitting side, I have less trust-able slugging than I'd prefer. I think I just didn't pay attention in the middle rounds when I should've added someone like Soler or Cron or Schwarber


2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Favorite picks for my team: happy to have several guys I like across my roster. I think my best value pick will be Dozier in 15 or Taijuan Walker in 20.
Tons of great selections across the board, though there's less variance these days all the way through the 25th round than there used to be. To get some guys you want in the middle rounds, you have to make a "bad" pick by going earlier than the touts or fangraphs auction calculator or other projections suggest. I imagine my roster looks like a series of such picks to others, but I did it on purpose. And it's been my experience that the picks of mine that I think were smart end up being guys picked even higher the following year (i.e. Nimmo/Bundy in Round 14/15 last year - they went in Round 10/11 this year).

Do-over: Eugenio Suarez in round 4 instead of Gallen would've radically reshaped my roster. Whether it would've been better for year-end results we won't ever know. But I'd feel much much happier right now with Suarez (4) and Musgrove (11) instead of Gregorius (11) and Gallen (4). Ugh - just typing that out makes me feel awful.


3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I like Seattle Zen's team, but for Arenado; mmikulka except for Bregman; and jrd's first 10 rounds were fantastic. I applaud graydog's pitching strategy - and agree it's a solid way to survive every year. But I don't think punting 2 categories (wins, strikeouts) leaves a path to league victory, especially in a full 162 game season. And in the last year of our leader Guru, I'm not playing just to survive.


4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I expected more managers to go heavier on starting pitching, but it just never happened. That had a snowball effect on my hitting options, and left me with a better staff and worse hitting than I typically leave a draft with.


5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
No - it's just imaginary baseball.
6Nerfherders
      ID: 56261418
      Mon, Mar 29, 2021, 11:34
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?

I didnt have much choice in my draft position so took the earliest spot available - 10th. That spot afforded me a novel approach: taking a SP in the first round. I knew after the first 3 pitchers there was a huge dropoff, so I gambled on taking an SP and hoping one of the dozen or so elite hitters would get back to me in the 2nd round. It almost happened but not quite. From there on it was best available and a closer for the next 9 rounds, then position hunting. I also toyed with the idea of not taking another SP until really late, but I didn't follow through with that.

I knocked my draft out of the park for the first dozen or so rounds, then the wheels kind of came off. You can see from rounds 12-17 I was first to take every player I selected. After that, I kind of got back on track. What happened in those middle rounds? I'm not sure, but I think I concentrated too much on going after specific positions.

2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?

Favorite picks were Chapman in 5th, Hiura in 6th, and Pham in 7th. Those three in a row I thought were great value. Worst picks, besides LeClerc, were probably Berti in 12th, Fairbanks in 15th, and Kirilloff in 16th, only because I couldve gotten them later.

3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?

I havent spent alot of time looking over other teams. I will say that everyone is going to be tough and know what they're doing, so alot of luck will come into play and how you react to injuries or ineffectiveness during the season will be the key to success.

4. What surprised you most about the draft?

How slow it got at the end. I didn't understand how some teams would see their pick coming up for overnight and not set a queue, especially when it was only a few picks away.

I was also surprised how veteran and safe my team ended up being. I usually go after young players throughout the draft and I didn't really do that. The short 2020 and no minor leagues skewed the projections towards veterans, and that had something to do with it.

5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?

Be more patient in the middle rounds. Generally, I think my team is pretty solid, especially on the pitching side. Hitting is okay, but I have some big holes at OF and maybe MI that may need fixing during the season. I also dislike the fact that I don't have that one great hitting anchor, but that's me still being uncomfortable with my choice of strategy.
Rate this thread:
5 (top notch)
4 (even better)
3 (good stuff)
2 (lightweight)
1 (no value)
If you wish, you may rate this thread on scale of 1-5. Ratings should indicate how valuable or interesting you believe this thread would be to other users of this forum. A '5' means that this thread is a 'must read'. A '1' means that this is a complete waste of time.

If you have previously rated this thread, rating it again will delete your previous rating.

If you do not want to rate this thread, but want to see how others have rated it, then click the button without entering a rating, or else click here.

RotoGuru Baseball Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread


Self-edit this thread




Post a reply to this message: RIBC 2021: Draft Recap

Name:
Email:
Message:
Click here to create and insert a link
Click here to insert a block of hidden (spoiler) text
Click here to insert a random spelling of Mientkiewicz
Ignore line feeds? no (typical)   yes (for HTML table input)


Viewing statistics for this thread
Period# Views# Users
Last hour11
Last 24 hours11
Last 7 days44
Last 30 days1515
Since Mar 1, 20071196352