RotoGuru Baseball Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread


Self-edit this thread


0 Subject: RIBC 2021: Retrospective

Posted by: Guru
- [330592710] Sun, Oct 03, 2021, 20:58

Congrats to Team Mikulka, winner of the 2021 RIBC, after dominating the standings for most of the last 5 months, and virtually lapping the field, with an average of 15 points per category..

A few post-season duties remain:

1. RIBC managers may post a recap of their season, if they wish. What worked well, what went wrong, what would you do differently the next time, and what did you learn?

2. I'd appreciate it if someone from each of the qualifying leagues would send me a link to their final standings. I'll post them in a separate thread. (If your team names do not easily identify the related team manager, please provide those linkages as well.)
1Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Oct 04, 2021, 10:34
Standings through games of Oct 3
RankTeam  R RBISBOBPSLGWSVKERAWHIP TOTAL
1Team Mikulka14161116161616161614151
2Foot's Acrobats166131412151431515123
3Mighty Meatwads9516811610151313106
4s R1311615925131412100
5Roto Guru151315341312104695
5Seattle Zen1014411141111210895
7Rotten Amoebas51536137134111693
8Ex- Holts8910785118121189
9youngroman's Luschen11129978.53148586.5
10Toral Wheatfarmers221421131559770
11RIBC JeffG 2021127510108.5223968.5
12Munson Mobsters3411215108.591366.5
13Maldo Kreis Ice Spiders43243136771059
14Da Bomb78121237112457
15Holt RIBC6107564466155
16Gray Dog11813518.515245.5

Stats through games of Oct 3
RankTeam  R RBISBOBPSLGWSVKERAWHIP IP AB PA
1Team Mikulka103810381090.35370.4778931111440 3.269 1.1151261.064597422
2Foot's Acrobats10698921240.33520.443792871264 3.297 1.1131250.170837947
3Mighty Meatwads9908861420.33130.443579641428 3.525 1.1381266.166617431
4s R1026971890.34640.440670461373 3.493 1.1401254.266667642
5Roto Guru10459801280.32280.427087781320 4.201 1.2361253.171858017
5Seattle Zen9911017780.33330.451686141358 3.754 1.2211280.168277672
7Rotten Amoebas9421032760.32500.444583851269 3.606 1.1121248.068957645
8Ex- Holts9609431050.32760.437278741303 3.578 1.1551255.067957680
9youngroman's Luschen9929731020.33200.436684321374 3.869 1.2621277.069797752
10Toral Wheatfarmers8638231250.31700.412587961292 3.858 1.2291264.164367184
11RIBC JeffG 20211006898840.33260.440884271237 4.285 1.2141277.064597355
12Munson Mobsters875868640.33440.466585561306 4.339 1.2711238.158766615
13Maldo Kreis Ice Spiders879858740.32360.426687471299 3.898 1.2121251.163537185
14Da Bomb9539031100.31640.413572481329 4.292 1.2651296.069077640
15Holt RIBC944956980.32470.428676401296 4.097 1.2921263.069087686
16Gray Dog8628051000.33460.42863556505 4.197 1.274480.158876655
2Guru
      ID: 330592710
      Mon, Oct 04, 2021, 13:05
Here is a link to Yahoo-AAA standings:

https://baseball.fantasysports.yahoo.com/b1/52546
3mmikulka
      ID: 4211332822
      Mon, Oct 04, 2021, 20:36
Here is a Shohei Ohtani retrospective since he was obviously the biggest component of my team's success this year:

I took Ohtani's final stats as well as the average of the bottom-ranked team in each category (tanking in W, K, SV, SB excluded) as a replacement-level proxy:

2021 Stats: Ohtani/Replacement Level

PA: 639/600
R: 103/72
RBI: 100/67
SB: 26/5.3
OBP: .372/.316
SLG: .592/.413

IP: 130.1/139.1
W: 9/7.8
K: 156/137
SV: 0/5.1
ERA: 3.18/4.34
WHIP: 1.09/1.29

From that point, I extrapolated Ohtani's category advantage over the replacement level player on a per-PA / per-IP basis and then multiplied it by his 639 PA and 130.1 IP to figure out how many R/RBI/SB/K/W etc he contributed over fantasy-replacement level. For the rate stats, I multiplied his advantage over replacement level by (639/7000 for PA and 130.333/1250 for IP).

R: 26.5
RBI: 28.6
SB: 20.3
OBP: .0052
SLG: .0167

W: 1.7
K: 27.5
SV: -4.8
ERA: 0.121
WHIP: .021

I then went to our final standings and found how many roto points each team would have gained with an extra 26.5 R, 28.6 RBI, 20.3 SB, etc

Inserting Ohtani into a lineup over the theoretical replacement-level player would have helped teams by an average of 17.5 roto points:

R: +1.44
RBI: +1.5
SB: +3.25
OBP: +2.19
SLG: +4.28

W: +0.88
K: +1.63
SV: -0.31
ERA: +1.44
WHIP: +1.22

I input Vlad Jr's stats (as the AL MVP runner-up) as well as a few all-time great seasons to see where Ohtani's 2021 fits in:

Average Roto Points Added to 2021 RIBC Teams:
Barry Bonds 2001: 19.25
Shohei Ohtani 2021: 17.5
Pedro Martinez 1999: 16.6
Mike Trout 2016: 14.6
Vladimir Guerrero Jr 2021: 10.97
4Nerfherders
      ID: 56261418
      Tue, Oct 05, 2021, 17:03
Interesting. Ive been running a similar analysis for the last several years, where I use a 3-year running average of finishing stats, and the 9th place stat as the replacement level stat. This basically gives me a points above replacement level that I can use a player rater for both projections and in-season performance tracking. Ohtani in my system results in the following stats:

R: 1.48
RBI: 1.34
SB: 3.54
OBP: 2.17
SLG: 3.45

W: 0.17
K: 0.67
ERA: 1.10
WHIP: 1.19
(SV for starters get zero because they essentially do not compete for saves)

This gives Ohtani a total of 11.98 for hitting and 3.13 for pitching. The pitching value is low because of his limited IP. The fewer games/IP, the more the replacement players have to play.

Ohtani's total of 15.11 makes him clearly the most valuable player in the league. To compare:
Scherzer: 9.97
Tatis: 12.90
5JeffG
      ID: 44182712
      Fri, Oct 08, 2021, 09:17
Quick retrospective for team JeffG

A disappointing finish for me this year. Finished in the lower top half in half the categories, but 2 or 3 in SV, ERA, K.

My top pick Mookie Betts 1.05 earned his high draft postion, Also had success from other top picks like Trevor Bauer 2.12(more below) who delivered when he was on my roster. George Springer 3.05 as well but missed almost half the year. Other top picks Max Muncie (5.05), Will Smith the catcher (9.05) and Jake Cronenworth (13.05).

Absolute busts were Eugenio Suarez (4.12), both my RP choices Kirby Yates (6.05) and Joakim Soria (12.12), Carlos Carrasco (7.12) did not play until late August, yet I kept him on my roster all year hearing he was 'a few weeks away' all season.

There were no picks of note I made 13-25 that contributed in any meaningful way, means that i really had a poor roster at draft looking back at the season now. With two bad RP selections, i was chasing saves all year, and technically just punted the category. I also failed to pick up any free agent of note that would contribute to my team, and there were many many non drafted players who were difference makers this year, especially on the SP side.

Trades actually saved my season from finishing on or near the bottom. With the slow start and my aweful hitting numbers early (and decent P numbers other than saves) I decided to trade a top pitcher and had Bauer on the block for at least a month, with most folks declining my offers. I finally got a bite amd on 6/26 got Teoscar Hernandez and Bobby Bradley for Trevor. Bauer was having a great year 137K in 107.2 innings, 8 W, 2.59/1.00 A few days later, Baeur was put on admin leave by the league, and would not pitch again. Da Bomb, my trading partner got screwed. I made a few mutually beneficial trades, most notably needing steals and getting Merrifield for Muncey. I think each of those trades yieleded an immediate stats jump for my team.


If there are any lessons learned from this season it is chasing saves sucks and I need to sacrifice for SB early in the draft or chase that category too. I will need to be more alert with starting pitching free agents.
6Seattle Zen
      ID: 46926512
      Mon, Oct 11, 2021, 13:53
Taking a look back at my draft, I would say it was great overall, which is odd considering that four of my first ten picks were total busts. As the season played out, I successfully executed a game plan that I had thought up years ago and tried once and failed: Grab a ton of starting pitchers, eat up most of the season's IP limit and trade those pitchers for better bats. I was top of the league in Ks and Wins for nearly the entire season but I knew it wouldn't last. I predicted that by the end I would lose ten points in Ks and Wins, I had to improve my offense enough to make up for that loss. In the end I did drop nine points but I stuck around in fifth place, the very first time I survived in RIBC.

Lets look at those draft picks. First, even though Juan Soto started very slow and ended up with only nine steals, he was awesome. He was the top bat and second overall only to Shohei, a .465 OBP will do that. Still think he has another level in him.

Walker Buehler was awesome. Second overall pitcher. Traded him and Freddy Peralta for Bo Bichette. Bo was just what I needed and helped keep my offense afloat. Walker was lights out after the trade, the rest of y'all should have made offers for him. Munson's Mobsters thankfully declined my Buehler for Ketel Marte proposal. Damn, really dodged a bullet there!

Nolan Arenado was a good pick, not great. He played all year, had 105 RBI. His .806 OPS was good, 81 runs were okay. No one cared about his two steals. There wasn't a ton of great third basemen, so that's why he was considered a good pick.

I reached to take Paul Goldschmidt at pick number 63 but damn, I am glad I did. He had a GREAT season, he was the 13th best bat overall. .367/.516 102runs 100 RBI 12 steals, all great numbers.

Kenta Maeda was seriously disappointing. He didn't get rolling until July then he destroys his elbow making it likely that the next time we see him pitch is 2023. He was supposed to be the Game One starter for the Twins in the ALDS. :(

Taking Marcus Semien at pick #95 was a stroke of genius. I think he was even better in traditional 5X5's with his 45 homers, his .873 OPS was 24th overall. 15 steals, 115 runs and 102 RBI made him the 12th overall bat. He probably won't be as underappreciated next year. I mean, he had a .892 OPS in 2019 so this year's results shouldn't come as too much of a surprise. Looking back, I am glad that I didn't take Tatis Jr. at #2 because I doubt I would have taken Marcus here, I probably would have taken Moustakas instead. Yes, I had the Moose ranked higher. Sometimes you need the deck to hit you in the head in order to win.

Speaking of the Moose, he sucked and I kept him around way too long. Ugh!

Chris Paddock was awful, just awful and I kept him around too long as well.

Michael Brantley stayed on my team the whole year. He always gets hurt and misses some time but that's not too problematic when you are an outfielder. Ever since 2014 you can pencil him in for batting over .300. His OBP of .362 was his best category, his .437 SLG was awful, his worst in a long time. That's why he only had 47 RBI on the high scoring Astros lineup. He doesn't steal anymore, I suspect he will be a 12th or 13th rounder next year.

The fourth complete dud in my top ten picks was Archie Bradley. Lots of us ended up drafting dud closers. I waited too long and picked poorly. Ended up dead last with 14 saves, half as many as second to last. In the past five or so seasons it seems that closers are even more a crapshoot. Hey, I was trying to pick up potential closers but failed in those attempts, too. Feel pretty lucky I finished as well as I did with just one point in the category.

It was from this point forward that my draft really shined. I probably had more late round contributors this year than ever before. The highlights were Freddy Peralta at #319. He had a ridiculously low ERA and WHIP when I traded him away, something like 2.25/0.90 with a ton of Ks.
Adam Duval at #287. He lead the NL in RBI. Frankie Montas at #223, Jared Walsh at #191, Andrew McCutchen at #162, Framber Valdez at #351. He pitched a few games for me, then I traded him to Holt for Trey Mancini. Trey had been scorching up to that point, he was kinda disappointing after he put on the SZ uni. Yusei Kikuchi was on my squad all season long. I spot started him and thanks to ESPN removing the feature where you see how each player contributed to your squad, I'm not sure what he actually did for my team, but I remember a lot of quality starts. I even had two late round picks who had great seasons but for other teams because I gave up on them. J Schoop at #290 was an early and stupid cut of mine. I knew Dylan Floro was the best reliever on the marlins but I wasn't patient enough to reap the rewards.

I had some excellent waiver wire acquisitions that allowed me to compile so many early innings pitched. Both Wade Miley and Dylan Cease were early season pick ups who performed great. Jed Lowrie had a great June and July which I needed when Moose stopped playing. I picked up Eduardo Escobar late in the year when some impatient owner let him go. He took over Jed's role and was great for me at the end of the year.

I never had a great catcher but that's not unusual. I had my best season ever when you look at the number of games played, nearly maxed out every position but catcher and second base.

Please tell me that someone has stepped up and will run RIBC next year. I put in so much time and effort researching this pre-season and filing out my lineups all year in order to finish in the top half, I sure hope that it was not in vain. SZ
7Nerfherders
      ID: 56261418
      Tue, Oct 12, 2021, 14:28
As for my team, I'll just say I feel fortunate to have finished not last. My draft was basically a disaster. I got what I expected out of Cole, Fried, Turner, Means, and for the most part, Alonso and Chapman. Corey Seager was good but only played 95 games. Everyone else started off horribly and I held on to them thinking they'd have to turn it around. Soler did, but the others did not, really. I also lost a third of my drafted pitching staff within a month of the season start.

I had some nice pieces at the end of the draft - Chisolm, Means, and Green. But they weren't stars by any means. (pardon the pun)

I had a couple nice pickups in Adames and Baddoo, who contributed nicely, but basically were bandaids for disasters like Hiura and Conforto.

This is just one of those leagues where everything comes down to the draft. Even with SZ's strategy, you have to hit on those pitchers in the middle rounds. And almost all of my players started so terribly I would have been selling low on all of them, so I hung onto them thinking they'd get it going.
Rate this thread:
5 (top notch)
4 (even better)
3 (good stuff)
2 (lightweight)
1 (no value)
If you wish, you may rate this thread on scale of 1-5. Ratings should indicate how valuable or interesting you believe this thread would be to other users of this forum. A '5' means that this thread is a 'must read'. A '1' means that this is a complete waste of time.

If you have previously rated this thread, rating it again will delete your previous rating.

If you do not want to rate this thread, but want to see how others have rated it, then click the button without entering a rating, or else click here.

RotoGuru Baseball Forum

View the Forum Registry

XML Get RSS Feed for this thread


Self-edit this thread




Post a reply to this message: RIBC 2021: Retrospective

Name:
Email:
Message:
Click here to create and insert a link
Click here to insert a block of hidden (spoiler) text
Click here to insert a random spelling of Mientkiewicz
Ignore line feeds? no (typical)   yes (for HTML table input)


Viewing statistics for this thread
Period# Views# Users
Last hour11
Last 24 hours33
Last 7 days66
Last 30 days2623
Since Mar 1, 20071139272