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0 Subject: RIBC AAA 2023 Draft Rationales

Posted by: Nerfherders
- [56261418] Mon, Mar 20, 2023, 12:22

Please post rationales here if you would like, in groups of five picks (1-5, 6-10, etc).

This is completely optional, of course.
1Seattle Zen
      ID: 58131413
      Mon, Mar 20, 2023, 13:48
I took the high draft slot left when it was my time to pick and I am glad I did. There were three players I was exceedingly happy to choose from when it was my turn to pick. The three previous picks: Vlad Jr., Goldy and Freeman, were all below 1.10.10 Kyle Tucker, Yordan and Mookie on my list. I actually had Yordan higher than Tucker as I think he is a platinum four category stud in this format. But… as the moment arrived, I pulled the trigger on Tucker as a five category monster with a better health history at age 26, perhaps even a few more levels of upside await. He’s forecasted to be a 850+ OPS slugger in a high scoring offense with between 20-30 steals. Maybe five players will match that in 2023. Hot damn!

“What’s your strategy?” you might ask. It’s simple: I just crush a lot. Get the most value, have a good time all the time and hope my drummer doesn’t spontaneously combust. There are two components to drafting a fantasy baseball squad: Forecasting player performance and game theory for filling your roster during the draft. When it comes to a player like 2.07.23 Jacob de Grom, SP, Texas the first element is difficult. I would posit that all of the forecasters would agree that de Grom would be the top pitcher in MLB were he to pitch an entire season. He is the only starter I’ve seen in all my years to have a predicted sub 2.00 ERA and a 40% K rate. A full season out of Jacob would likely be a top 3 performance in all of baseball. The game theory portion of my consideration is the amount of risk I am willing to take at pick 23. Jacob is notoriously fragile. We have but one DL slot in this league. I have never had de Grom in any fantasy league so I haven’t lost any fingers when he blew up in years past. That bias certainly is baked into his price. All picks have risks. Looking at the second round last season in RIBC, Jacob was picked #16, if you include him, there were seven busts in the second round. Walker Buehler sure looked like a safe bet as did Trevor Story. Jacob’s upside at pick 23 was priced right in comparison to his higher likelihood of injury so I put him in my queue… behind Corbin Burns and Pete Alonzo. I was sitting at my desk as I watched the pick come in and saw, ta da! Burns and Alonzo went right before me and I’m the proud owner of Jacob. Will I join the club of 8 fingered fantasy managers who mumble curses when Mr. de Grom’s name is mentioned the rest of this decade? Will I crow, prance, strut and beat my chest as champion with the air of “I told you so” when Jacob runs away with the AL Cy Young? It’s going to be the later. But I would rather have the Polar Bear…

I believe third base is remarkably thin this year. The last four great third basemen come off the board before I get to pick again. A ton of starting pitchers, all of whom wish they had de Grom’s stuff, are taken. When we write our post mortems in October we will point to some of them who get injured or who downright stink and blame them for your poor outcome. I don’t really like the bats available at this price but I do end up with 3.10.42 Jazz Chisholm the second(baseman) Miami. He was my third highest ranked secondbaseman, similar OPS as Albies but with more steals. He’s young, going to be playing centerfield this season, likely leading off and could very well steal 30+ bases. RIBC is notorious in grabbing middle infielders early and with seven of the first 41 picks MI’s, I feel Jazz was the right choice.

I love living on the Best Coast; I am surrounded by beautiful mountains and salt water. I get to bed early and still get most of the important sports news such as Edwin Diaz sadly destroying his knee during a celebration at the WBC. I had him and 4.07.55 Emanuel Clase, RP, Cleveland neck and neck at the top of the closer list. I guess we all should thank loki and maspero for causing the draft to stall for a couple of days because Eddie D was drafted in RIBC The Show shortly before the disaster. With him on the shelf, that leaves maybe six real “closers” as we were accustomed to knowing. I rarely take the first closer off the board, it hasn’t made sense in the past but things have changed dramatically of late. Clase is an amazing pitcher, had a stellar season last year and while he doesn’t strike out batters like Hader, he was nearly impossible to hit last year. In other leagues I will spend a lot less draft capital on my closers, here, I like the idea of having an anchor in my bullpen.

I find myself again not very enthusiastic about the bats available. Looking back at the picks, there are a lot of unproven, barely can shave youngsters that y’all are hoping pay off like a lotto ticket. The Weekend, blood sucking edition, goes with two boys fresh from American Legion play. Both are preseason favorites for Rookie of the Year. He obviously loves the taste of risk as much as he does hemoglobin. As I watch the picks come off the board, I really, REALLY want Cedric Mullins to fall to me. Sanfordors gets an absolute steal, ;) at #71.

I am proud of myself this year for checking my inherent biases at the door as much as I have. I am notorious for waiting until the end to pick a catcher in RIBC. It’s a combination of a few factors – In our one catcher league, 50% of MLB’s starting catchers are on the waiver wire at any one time. Two, I have had some piss poor results picking catchers early so I am leery. But I’m willing to take a chance of a player who qualifies at C but will not catch this year, instead is scheduled to play 162 games in the outfield. Forecast to steal bases somewhere in the teens, 5.10.74 Dalton Varsho, C, Blue Jays is forecast by me as the top catcher. I imagine a 750+ OPS and batting fifth in that lineup will ensure lots of R/RBI.
2Vampireweekend
      Dude
      ID: 24100310
      Mon, Mar 20, 2023, 17:14
First time back in participating in a RIBC qualifying league in many years. Saw that there was a need for some additional managers and decided to play this season - have regretted my decision ever since (sort of).

What’s my strategy you may ask? Well I live in the DFW area with no mountains or oceans for days. I do, however, live in the land of the greatest bbq in the US and therefore the world and I always try to keep things at 11 so fresh off of clogging my arteries I went with the highest pick available which turned out to be the first pick after others slotted themselves a little lower. Back in the day I messed up many a RIBC qualifying league draft from the first slot so I felt comfortable taking the first slot again and living with immediately beginning to regret every pick after the first one.

I was born in New York and am a Yankees fan and was going to be watching a lot of Judge this season and I can’t escape my biases so went with him. Will be quite pleased with similar numbers as last season….

Wanted some high strikeout forecasts so took Nola and then decided to see how many young semi proven to unproven people I could squeeze onto one team. The fact that some are younger than my two children is a great way to keep myself feeling old,

Someone sometimes wins the lottery right?

Sent from AT&T Yahoo Mail for iPad
3Nerfherders
      ID: 305301811
      Tue, Mar 21, 2023, 11:47
1.02 Ronald Acuna, Jr., OF ATL. I thought I got him as a steal in the 10th spot last year and he was ehh... it seemed the knee injury sapped his power, but I suspect he will be fully healed this season and again will threaten 30-30, and maybe even 40-40. Perhaps the most complete player in the game right now.

2.15 Alex Bregman, 3B HOU. I love picking on the ends because I can make picks in pairs. This first pair I knew I wanted to be offense, and positions that are somewhat scarce. 3B is tough after the first five or so players, so Bregman fit the bill here. He's as steady as they come.

3.02 Francisco Lindor, SS NYM. I knew I wanted MI here and debated on SS-2B. I kinda liked Albies here and was in my queue, but I had Lindor just a little ahead of him. Lindor had a nice bounceback season from his so-so 2021, and should be a fine all-around player in this spot.

4.15 Dylan Cease, SP CHW. The gap between between early 3rd and late 4th seems to be the most immense in the draft, as the elite players wash away and leave only players with flaws in their games. I wasn't sure if I wanted to take a P here with this pick, but decided that I liked the pitchers here compared to the hitters.

As a side note, I have liked the pitchers compared to the hitters in ALL my drafts, because of the weird 2022 season. The projections are primarily based on 2022 outcomes where hitting went to die, while my cheat sheet uses historical finishes of RIBC with a 3 year running average. Those (really 3 and a third) years include the crappy hitting year but also two elite power seasons, so hitters kind of get the short end of the stick in my stat projections. Who knows what will happen this year as MLB continues to manipulate the game.

Anyway, Cease was the guy here. I like his K potential and he will be a fine anchor for the pitching staff.

5.02 Bryan Reynolds, OF PIT. Here I wanted the best all-around hitter I could find, regardless of speed. Reynolds seems to fit the bill here as a solid hitter and very well suited to this format.
4JeffG
      ID: 40132610
      Wed, Mar 22, 2023, 15:11
1.11 11 Ohtani [[ OF ]], Shohei (大谷 翔平) UTL LAA
After my top 4 - Judge, Ramirez, Soto, Turner - I was going to be happy with whoever landed to me at 11. I had a log jam of about 11 players in my original top 15 for this slot with whom I would be happy with, and was wondering if Shohei (or Trout) would make it to me. Both did, and even though I only get the hitting Othani, I feel like this is a steal. SHO-time is a legit 5 category fantasy threat, and I always seem to have a team lacking in steals, so if i can get a dozen or so it helps. Drawback is I can only slot him in the UTIL spot and his AB may take a hit as he will get less plate appearances than the other top-50 hitters due to his pitching responsibilities. Love watching him play, wish he played more games in the Eastern time zone, but if games are quicker, I may make it to the end of more Angels games on the Extra-Innings TV package.

2.06 22 Alonso, Pete 1B NYM
I had the Polar Bear was on my top-15 list, so a little lucky he made it back to pick 22. I put a little more weight in the fact he is a corner infielder, where after the 1B drafted so far, then Pete and Olsen (picked 2.13) the 1B pool drops off, where I can maybe find more outfielders down stream. Blowing off pitching since I expect someone decent who can anchor my staff to rebound to me in 20 picks.

3.11 43 Wheeler, Zack SP PHI
All the starting pitchers in my queue started getting plucked off since my last pick, and wanted not to blow off getting a solid 200+ strikeout starter who also will help in ERA/WHIP and wins. Wins are getting harder to count on with starters going shorter distances now but on the Phillies I expect Zack to get close to 15 - 15 wins is the new 20-game winner mark.

4.06 54 Springer, George OF TOR
I think this is the third straight season I have Springer in RIBC, so I know he is fragile. But I also think on the high powered Blue Jay offense, I should get a lot of run production numbers if he stays healthy and in the lineup. I hate blowing off the position scarcity positions but seem to lean as to most productive left on the board, versus player over replacement.

5.11 75 Marte, Starling OF NYM
I'm a little scared about missing a potential tier-1 closer run, but again going my best production left on the board over getting a 2B/SS/3B/C here, where the drop off is greater. Wanting to grab someone who can get 25+ steals, and still not hinder the other categories as greatly. Not crazy about having two Mets and one X-Met on my roster... guess going to watch a lot of NL East games this season.

6.06 86 Williams, Devin RP MIL
Whew - one of the top tier closers made it back to me. I know saves are going to be a little easier to find on the free agent pool and waiver wire than in past years with all these committees and the high leverage role being re-defined, but Devin still is going to be one of the half-dozen to be in the traditional defined closer role and should be good for 35-40 all by his lonesome. It is less stressful to have a solid closer, then it is to constantly chasing role changes, or grabbing the less reliable ones who are a few bad outings away from losing their role. Also a getting a 13 K/9 pitcher.
5JeffG
      ID: 40132610
      Thu, Mar 23, 2023, 12:04
7.11 107 Rodon, Carlos SP NYY
Only my SP2 through 7 rounds. But Rodon is a tier-1 or tier-2 fantasy starter, but devauled due to an elbow issue that will have him miss the first 3 weeks or so of the season. Yankees invested a lot of money, and it turns out that was the only improvement they made this off season. Hoping it was a good one. A strikeout machine, and good on the ratios, and expect to be good for the win column too on a very good team with a very good pen. Just hoping he gets healthy quick.

8.06 118 Rosario, Amed SS CLE
Got to get middle infielders now as the muck on the board later is scary. Low in the ratios and rbi, decent for steals and a good lineup behind him should drive him in frequently.

9.11 139 Bard, Daniel RP COL
What the heck... lets grab another 'closer' or at least someone who has the job until he loses it.

10.06 150 Stephenson, Tyler C CIN
Kind of the middle of the road in the catcher food chain, but someone who will also DH or play first base, which means i won't need to hold two lesser hitting catchers for less off days, or just hold one who sits for 50 games leaving my productivity numbers lacking. The Reds expect 150 games out of Stephenson who draws walks in addition to hitting, and should score and drive in 70+.

11.11 171 Suarez, Eugenio 3B SEA
Third base gots shallow quick and the last two picks I went with positional need. I am not giving up on Eugenio, who killed it just a few years ago, and now has tempered our expectations. Not saying the fantasy rationale expectation cliche of "bounce back"... but thinking it loudly, or hoping for something.

12.06 182 Abrams, CJ 2B WAS
Another positional need pick so going with someone with SB potential in the 20s. He's not worse than any of the MI picked the last 4 rounds that I let go by. Not much else to see here, keep moving.
6Seattle Zen
      ID: 58131413
      Thu, Mar 23, 2023, 14:18
Let’s just say that all y’all are right and I am not, that Jacob de Grom is really just a tiger after all and no matter how hard I try to train him not to get hurt/bite my leg off, he can’t overcome his natural instincts and CHOMP! Well, maybe I ought to draft a top shelf prosthetic leg… just in case. There are four high quality arms I have in my Q: 6.07.87 Max Fried, SP, Braves, Gausman, Alex Manoa and Zac Gallen. I got outstanding value out of Manoa and Gallen last year. I have never had Gausman, like Rodon, he became a stud after relearning his craft in The City by the Bay. But, perhaps just like Rodon, he signed a free agent contract to pitch in the AL East and his results varied, not in a good way. Fried is not a strike out machine, but he has been a steady arm who wins games on a great team and keeps his ERA/WHIP in great shape. I see Gausman drop and drop and I would take him with my next pick if Sanfordors didn’t. Nice run there with Mullins, Edman and Gausman!!

What in the what did I just do? I spend so much time preparing for the fantasy baseball drafting season by consulting multiple sources, keeping apprised of news and health concerns and getting the pulse of the marketplace in hopes of limiting my personal biases and drafting the best possible team. And yet when the time came to make my seventh round pick, I threw that all away and took 7.10.102 Ryan Helsley, RP, Cards. Honestly, I didn’t know him at all until just recently, didn’t pay much attention to MLB last summer to my detriment. I’m so fed up with Saves as a category that I really don’t put the effort into studying relievers before the draft. But as I am surveying the marketplace I just don’t like the bats available, again, and I was ready to take another arm in Gausman, so… When I took Clase I said I thought there were only six or seven real closers in baseball and I have them ranked as Clase, Hader, Williams and Helsley with a large drop off after that. A significant number of teams will punt saves in the draft, that has been a recent development which leads to even more frantic waiver wire maneuverings after every blown save during the season. Some years you strike gold but if you are fighting ten managers with knives drawn for the Next Closer, even living on the Best Coast isn’t enough. Meh, I’ll fill in my bats with middle round value picks!

I’m low on slugging so far, one good reason is I haven’t drafted a first baseman yet. There are two guys I’m looking at: Christian Walker and Anthony Rizzo. I’ve never really been a fan of Rizzo, back in 2016 when it was Cleveland v. Cubs for the title, I was disappointed in how much attention was given to Kris Bryant and Rizzo in comparison to Lindor and the Angry Hamster Jose Ramirez. Bryant and Rizzo are handsome, don’t speak with an accent and are white. Lindor and Ramirez were and are much better, period. While the Cubs hoisted the trophy, Lindor and Ramirez have gone on to better careers. Can I overlook this media bias? Is Rizzo far enough removed from the spotlight that he is no longer way overdrafted? I think so. 8.07.119 Anthony, 1st Yankees has a great eye, he is very consistently walking at a 11% rate. He had his career best ISO last year as he tied his career high of 32 homers in a lot less at bats than usual. He took advantage of the JV field dimensions that is Yankee Stadium right field with 19 homers. He was shifted in all but 7 at bats last year, so he should see an improvement in BABIP. “But his back!!!” Pfft, get him a foam roller, he’s not Larry Bird. I had Rizzo above Walker so I wasn’t disappointed when C1-NRB took him.
Ten closers go off the board in the 25 picks after Helsley and they all stink in my totally bias-free, objective studies. Of the first 89 picks, 13% of them (12 humans) are shortstops. After that, only one SS is taken in the next 47 picks. Yes, this is the Golden Era of the shortstop. I didn’t get a Golden Child. I’m left picking among players who remind me of the players I grew up taking in fantasy baseball – can’t really hit that well but steal bases. I am deciding between two players: Jeremy PeÑa and 9.10.138 Nico Hoerner, SS, Cubs. Jeremy had an amazing post season for a rookie, winning both the ALCS and World Series MVP. Is this the start of a major break out or is this more like a hot streak we saw out of B.J. Upton? More Randy Arozarena or, for you older folks, Buddy Biancalana? I’m thinking Buddy so I put Nico atop my queue. Philsfan made the point moot.

Nico had a meager 5.4% walk rate last season but he hasn’t always been like that. He is penciled in to lead off for an improved Cubs offense and pretty much everyone believes he will steal about 20 bases. Upside has a 750+ OPS with a bunch of runs and those 20 steals, sounds good to me.

Back in 1990, Charlie Hayes, ruined Terry Mulholland’s perfect game in the seventh inning by botching a grounder. I bring him up because his son is Ke’Bryan and the Ke’ is short for “Keeps getting hurt”, a real chip off the ol’ block. I fondly remember picking him up in a few leagues when he made his MLB debut in 2020 and he rewarded me with a ridiculous .376/.442/.682 line. That lead to him being drafted WAY too high in 2021. Truth is, his slugging percentage has never topped his batting average from 2020. Yep, he’s a slap hitting, oft injured base stealer. Don’t want him.

But I do want a third baseman and I narrow my choice between 10.07.151 Matt Chapman, 3rd base, Toronto and Eugenio Suarez. I still need more slugging and I’m a believer in Suarez, but the marketplace likes Chapman. Matt is in his walk year so he has every incentive to have a great season, I have already one share of Eugenio and Chapman has been pretty damn consistent getting over 600 plate appearances every year and a double digit walk rate. Cha ching!
7Nerfherders
      ID: 305301811
      Tue, Mar 28, 2023, 11:40
6.15 We won't talk about this pick okay? The guy I really wanted here was Muncy who was sniped the pick before me.

7.02 Ryan Pressly, RP HOU. I wanted one of the top 5 closers before a potential run happened. Pressly is not spectacular but quietly gets the job done. Until he doesn't. Always the way with closers, eh?

8.15 Masataka Yoshida, OF BOS. Superlative power in Japan, but will it translate to MLB? That's the question with Yoshida. The projections say not really, but he will still put up nice numbers for this format. I might have to patient with him because it will take him a few weeks to acclimate to the different pitchers. Happy to get his potential at this point in the draft.

9.02 Brandon Lowe, 2B TB. A consolation prize for missing Muncy is getting Lowe, who was also beset by injuries last year. I'm hoping for a bounceback and return to his .450+ slugging ways.

10.15 Paul Sewald, RP SEA. Most of the everyday closers were gone at this point but one stuck out, and if he wasn't here I probably would have punted the position down the draft. The only issue with Sewald is that he has a partner in crime...
8Nerfherders
      ID: 305301811
      Tue, Mar 28, 2023, 11:54
11.02 Hunter Greene, SP CIN. I had this guy as a rookie briefly last year and he was horrid, but in the second half he was spectacular, living up to the hype he generated upon arriving. Everyone seems to think he will continue that trend, and one thing he will do no matter what is strike people out, and that's a thing you have to have in this league.

12.15 Miguel Vargas, 2B? LAD. I liked getting Greene last round, but it meant most of the MI I was targeting for MI were gone. I looked a little outside the box in grabbing Vargas here, who's listed as a 1B but should be playing 2B? It seems the Dodgers always have half their lineup playing different positions. He's young and has upside, so we'll see what he can do.

13.02 Andres Munoz, RP SEA. The partner in crime. You can't have Sewald without Munoz, who is arguably better. I suspect they will split time closing based on matchups. It is weird getting two RP's to make one closer, but I wouldn't do it if the two guys weren't already that good.

14.15 Drew Rasmussen, SP TB. We are starting to get into the real dregs here. Rasmussen was way down my list of SP but all the rest were gone at this point. He should be fine, no complaints, but he's not terribly exciting. I find myself a little behind on SP at this point.

15.02 Josh Naylor, OF CLE. Ehh.. I had no idea what to do here. I wanted 'best hitter available' with a little more SLG than OBP. That was Naylor. This guy is as boring as boring can get, and only had a couple decent seasons on his ledger, including last year. If I had dug a little deeper I might have found a player with more upside. I did this again a couple picks later.
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