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Subject: Value of a Trade Posted by: Gary - [1943692] Mon, Jul 10, 10:07 Value of a Trade Warning the following information doesn't take into account injuries or such. Ok, it has been asked several times what a trade is worth dollar wise. I have done some number crunching as well as some research into the subject and have found several things. First a pitcher trade is worth more then a hitter trade (I know you all are going Daaaaa). Next I found that the difference in hitter to pitcher trades will widen after the All Star break. By crunching the numbers I found that during the 14 weeks of the season so far that pitching trades are 2 times more valuable then hitter trades. Meaning that hitter trades tended to make about 33% of your roster value while pitcher trades tended to account for 66% of ones roster value. Using the average roster value as of 7/10, which is 84.38 million dollars meaning that the average roster gained about 34.38 million dollars in RV since the beginning of the season. This is real close to what I figured would be an ideal gain of 3 million dollars a week I suggested to a friend I compete against in SW. That 3 million dollar a week gain would of made a RV of about 92 million which is about where the top roster value stands in the gurupie rankings. 34.38 million / 14 weeks = 2.456 million dollars a week in gains 2.456 million * 33% (percentage I believe hitter trades make) = $ 270,160 2.456 million * 66% (percentage I believe pitcher trades make) = $ 540,320 By using the above numbers I believe one should figure that trading a pitcher should make them 540K to 600K. Meaning that if I trade pitcher A for pitcher B that the combined gain should equal or be greater then 540K. Pitcher A traded to pitcher B: Pitcher A loses 200K the following day Pitcher A loses 50K two days after trade Pitcher B gains 100K the following day Pitcher B gains 30K two days after trade So you avoid the losses of 250K from pitcher A and you gain 130K from picking up pitcher B, meaning you gained in RV 380K meaning this trade wouldn't be worth the trade. Using a current example from the message forum presented by johnny lighting: I picked up Burkhart at 1st last Thursday for Derrek Lee. Burkhart has gone up $130,000 while Lee has remained steady. I am planning to go to Helton after the ASB for the home stand (also plan to go Tatis => Cirillo). Do you think it was worth a trade for $130,000. Now using this info: Picked up Burkhart and gained $130K Dropped Derrek Lee and lost $0 Meaning that he gained a total of $130 K for a hitter trade. So using my theory Johnny lighting either should hold Burkhart for awhile longer or he made a unwise trade Money wise that is. OK, go ahead a rip my theory apart or add your own ideas. Gary | ||||||
| 1 | Gary ID: 1943692 Mon, Jul 10, 10:10 |
Forgot to mention that I am still crunching numbers to figure out how much the difference will be after the All Star game between hitter and pitcher trades. I will post my findings here when I finish my research.
Gary | |||||
| 2 | Matt G ID: 3452159 Mon, Jul 10, 10:20 |
I think that your theory is good, yes but depending on who you trade. the value of a trade is hard to measure by just looking at Burkhart and Lee, I am not sayig that is the only trade you made to develop your tehory. But look at the value of an RJ->Pedro trade as compared to a Armas - > Ankiel trade. Is it worth it to keep Armas and is eventually 500K losses or should we trade to Ankiel. I don't think the value of a trade can be measured just by one trade, if we go armas -> Ankiel Armas may drop 350K in 3 days and ankile may gain 350K in 3 days making that a 700K gain, but if we don't trade out of Ankiel we will see him lose money making our gains, "Watered down" But by making another trade, we are risking the trade being "worth it" as you said. I think your theory is very valuable yes, and probably correct in many ways, but I don't think trades can be measured 1 by 1 we have to look at the entire picture. I am not say point wise, but money wise, with pitchers there is almost always some downfall after big gain. The only way to avoid this is to rotate, or to sit and hope his gains even out or go above his loses.
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| 3 | jedman ID: 5443537 Mon, Jul 10, 10:30 |
I'm missing something here, 2.456 million * 33% = .81048 mill
2.456 * 66% = 1.621 mill Where are you getting your numbers. Is there a divisor I am not seeing. Just want to make sure I understand your numbers. | |||||
| 4 | Gary ID: 1943692 Mon, Jul 10, 11:03 |
Your right jedman Here are the corrected numbers sorry about that.
33% * 2.456 = $810,000 $810,000 / 3= $270,160 66% * 2.456 = $1,620,960 $1,620,960 / 3 = $540,000 Hope that clears things up. Sorry once again. Gary | |||||
| 5 | SwinganaMiss ID: 3532711 Mon, Jul 10, 11:46 | I'd like to know where the 33% and 66% come from. You said you did some crunching. Please explain more or give example or something. These numbers are the entire basis for your argument. Show us how you got them. | |||||
| 6 | steve houpt ID: 5062656 Mon, Jul 10, 14:17 |
Well, here is an actual team (mine = id 139330).
Total value = $87.57 PITCHERS - 44 Trades used $16.22 = Total Gain / 44 = $369K/trade $00.64 = From pitchers drafted $15.58 = Less draft / 44 = $354K/trade HITTERS - 45 Trades used $21.35 = Total Gain / 45 = $474K/trade $06.23 = From hitters drafted $15.12 = Less draft / 45 = $336K/trade Some of the profit is from the value of the initial draft, but I had to trade them to realize it. Without really analyzing it, my guess is you can look at the value of a trade (for me) somewhere in between. Also some of the players I have now (I hope) will still gain, so the numbers will change daily even without using another trade. After the draft profits, my gains are split equally almost 50%. | |||||
| 7 | Guru ID: 330592710 Mon, Jul 10, 15:37 |
Seems like there are some methodolgy problems here.
Steve is measuring the absolute gains for his trades. The losses that he may have avoided are not factored in. In general, I think that is the better approach. Gary is defining the value of a trade as the gain on the buy plus the negative of the loss on the sold player. For example, if he bought Pedro (+160) today and sold Randy (-350), he'd count that as a +510K trade value. If you are constantly swapping back and forth (Randro), that may be a reasonable measurement for some purposes. Reversing the Pedro/Randy trade today would certainly net you an extra $510K in cash vs. your cash position before the two trades. However, your roster value has not increased by $510K; it's only risen by $160K. Yet Gary seems to calculate some numbers by looking at the cumulative roster value gains and divvying them into per-trade chunks. Again, that is a reasonable way to do the arithmetic, but that isn't measuring the gross trade effect (gain on buy plus the avoided loss). So it seems like we have a lot of apples and oranges. | |||||
| 8 | Homer Sexuals ID: 51452411 Mon, Jul 10, 15:52 |
I rate trades on their overall karmic value. If my shakra is properly aligned and my aura is not in flux. I consult my oracle and if she concurs with my dogmatic outlay, I proceed.
Otherwise, the answer is: 42. | |||||
| 9 | walk ID: 104739 Mon, Jul 10, 15:58 |
Homer Sexuals, that was VERY funny!!
- walk | |||||
| 10 | Guru ID: 330592710 Wed, Jul 12, 11:46 |
A related topic could be "The Value of a Gain".
Assume for now that you can use a cash gain to upgrade your production at the rate of 2 SWP/EG/$mil. When there are 120 games remaining, a $1m gain can be deployed to pick up an expected 240 SWP over the remainder of the season. But in mid-August, when only 50 games remain, the projected point pickup is proportionately punier. (Holy alliteration, Batman!) Let's think for a moment about the implications of this on one of our favorite tactics - Randro. From a pure point perspective, Randro is not particularly efficient. Essentially, you use 2 trades to gain one extra start. Admittedly, a start from either of those two guys is pretty attractive. But lately, there are a number of other pitchers who seem to be putting up numbers in a similar ballpark. Both Randy and Pedro are also occasionally dipping into double-digit territory, while guys like Brown, Hampton, Maddux, Schilling, Benson, Hudson, Leiter, Wells, and a few others are showing some stud-like signs. Of course, the other aspect of Randro is the price gain side, which I believe has made the tactic very efficient from a combined point & price perspective. But as the point value of $gains declines during the second half, that element loses its power, and it may be that other point-efficient rotation strategies begin to have greater merit. | |||||
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