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0 Subject: Pitching Statistics, Part II

Posted by: Madman, guru jr - [44633210] Thu, Jul 20, 16:04
Here is an updated list of pitcher statistics (in terms of SWP) through 7/20.

This chart pertains to starters only.

The Weighted Schedule column is a weighted average of the team road and home factors for the remaining games left on a team's schedule. It does not factor in the home team's ballpark (I anticipate this column will be used primarily to judge whether or not to buy a given pitcher; if so, that pitcher's historical performance already (likely) reflects the home park of the given team).

Team BALLPARK TEAM POINTS AGAINST ROAD BP Tm FACTORS Weighted
Name G Pts Avg G Pts Avg G Pts Avg G Pts Avg Factor Tm Road Tm Home Schedule
Ana 104 2315 22.3 95 3150 33.2 95 2830 29.8 86 3665 42.6 -20.3 4.2 -16.1 -4.6
Ari 106 4505 42.5 95 5405 56.9 95 3425 36.1 84 4325 51.5 -9 4.4 -4.6 0.2
Atl 86 3170 36.9 94 5070 53.9 94 3125 33.2 102 5025 49.3 -12.4 2.2 -10.2 -0.2
Bal 84 3115 37.1 92 2615 28.4 92 3525 38.3 100 3025 30.3 6.8 -1.5 5.3 -2.9
Bos 90 3520 39.1 90 4080 45.3 90 3270 36.3 90 3830 42.6 -3.5 1.4 -2.1 -3.0
ChC 94 4595 48.9 93 3910 42 93 3945 42.4 92 3260 35.4 13.5 -1.1 12.4 0.9
ChW 92 2840 30.9 94 4325 46 94 1795 19.1 96 3280 34.2 -3.3 -16.0 -19.3 -1.7
Cin 94 3115 33.1 95 3035 31.9 95 3535 37.2 96 3455 36 -2.9 1.9 -1.0 5.7
Cle 96 3170 33 93 3690 39.7 93 2840 30.5 90 3360 37.3 -4.3 -3.9 -8.2 -3.1
Col 86 160 1.9 92 1770 19.2 92 3150 34.2 98 4760 48.6 -46.7 19.4 -27.3 6.2
Det 86 2950 34.3 91 2420 26.6 91 4185 46 96 3655 38.1 -3.8 11.1 7.3 -3.5
Fla 96 4175 43.5 93 3395 36.5 93 4615 49.6 90 3835 42.6 0.9 12.5 13.4 -2.6
Hou 88 3360 38.2 94 2520 26.8 94 3815 40.6 100 2975 29.8 8.4 0.0 8.4 3.5
Kan 96 2365 24.6 92 1785 19.4 92 3575 38.9 88 2995 34 -9.4 7.1 -2.3 -0.5
Los 90 4180 46.4 93 4040 43.4 93 3730 40.1 96 3590 37.4 9 -0.9 8.1 1.6
Mil 96 4010 41.8 96 2510 26.1 96 5175 53.9 96 3675 38.3 3.5 15.5 19.0 1.0
Min 98 3145 32.1 97 2485 25.6 97 4260 43.9 96 3600 37.5 -5.4 9.9 4.5 -0.5
Mon 98 3810 38.9 91 3200 35.2 91 3670 40.3 84 3060 36.4 2.5 2.3 4.8 2.1
NYM 92 3960 43 93 4325 46.5 93 3340 35.9 94 3705 39.4 3.6 -2.6 1.0 1.4
NYY 86 3095 36 89 3330 37.4 89 3480 39.1 92 3715 40.4 -4.4 4.5 0.1 -1.8
Oak 90 3035 33.7 93 3180 34.2 93 2330 25.1 96 2475 25.8 7.9 -15.5 -7.6 -1.1
Phi 90 4515 50.2 93 4415 47.5 93 4365 46.9 96 4265 44.4 5.8 7.4 13.2 2.1
Pit 92 4105 44.6 93 3175 34.1 93 4870 52.4 94 3940 41.9 2.7 14.3 17.0 1.6
Sdg 94 4790 51 94 3510 37.3 94 4050 43.1 94 2770 29.5 21.5 -4.4 17.1 0.4
Sea 86 3920 45.6 93 4620 49.7 93 1840 19.8 100 2540 25.4 20.2 -26.3 -6.1 -3.5
Sfo 98 4270 43.6 92 3535 38.4 92 2120 23 86 1385 16.1 27.5 -28.3 -0.8 7.9
StL 96 3725 38.8 94 5060 53.8 94 2130 22.7 92 3465 37.7 1.1 -14.6 -13.5 7.0
Tam 98 3135 32 92 1600 17.4 92 4360 47.4 86 2825 32.8 -0.8 11.1 10.3 -4.2
Tex 98 2800 28.6 92 3215 34.9 92 2870 31.2 86 3285 38.2 -9.6 -0.4 -10.0 -2.4
Tor 94 2825 30.1 96 3305 34.4 96 2455 25.6 98 2935 29.9 0.2 -11.2 -11.0 -2.8
TOTALS 2794 102675 36.7 2794 102675 36.7 2794 102675 36.7 2794 102675 36.7
1Madman, guru jr
      ID: 44633210
      Thu, Jul 20, 16:08 		Statistics are through 7/19, ahem...
2biliruben
      ID: 5849314
      Thu, Jul 20, 16:20 		So let me get this straight - I might consider picking up a houston pitcher, say Elerton, ESPECIALLY at home, because Enron appears to be a pitcher's park? I guess all those dingers don't add up to alot of points.

Am I getting this right? Maybe some footnotes are in order.

In any case, GREAT WORK MADMAN!

3JKaye
      ID: 26444220
      Thu, Jul 20, 16:49 		Madman: You are unbelievable!

I'm sorry, but you are going to be a repeat Guru, Jr this year! I am blown away by not only the quality of your work but the effort and care you put into it.

Thanks again for an amazing job.
4Madman, guru jr
      ID: 44633210
      Thu, Jul 20, 16:51 		biliruben, I'm not really sure how awful a place to pitch HOU really is. But, putting that aside, here are some other general comments.

First, HOU can be deemed a SW Starting Pitcher park for a number of reasons, even if they give up an extra half a dinger. For example, starting pitchers in HOU throw the third most pitches of starters in any ballpark (more pitches usually means more points), and they last the 5th longest there. That is likely the result of a combination of factors. The ERA is relatively high in HOU, but that doesn't necessarily matter to you, the SW manager, if it can be outweighed by other factors.

Secondly, when considering a pitcher like Elarton, the primary consideration is his pitching average. Then I would look at the weighted schedule (a nice +3.5). I would look primarily at HOU's ballpark factor for helping me to decide on certain matchups. In terms of holding Elarton long-term, that ballpark factor (if accurate) is already included in his actual average.

As far as footnotes go, yes, I should. But I've got to take a break. I played around in Excel quite awhile to get a format I liked, and the "weighted schedule" feature was a nightmare to program.
5Madman, guru jr
      ID: 44633210
      Thu, Jul 20, 17:20 		First off, a legit thanks for the compliments. The above took some work, but I've automated the procedure now so I can change colors easily, as well as update the table on demand.



I just can't resist this; I am very intrigued by the question you raised, biliruben: Is Enron a hitter's park?

LocationH/IPERA
HOU1.085.38
Not HOU1.145.44


HOU represents games by both teams at HOU.
Not HOU is the record of both teams when HOU is on the road.

I think HomEron is a media-created myth. The comparisons are always relative to the Astrodome (one of the worst HR parks in history), and always relative to last year, when HOU had a great staff. Furthermore, the comparisons never do what I'm doing above -- compare the teams in the HOU games when they are in HOU to those same teams when they are NOT in HOU. It is true that the ERA in Enron is one of the 10 worst in baseball (5.38). But what's not said is that those same teams playing elsewhere are even worse!

So, I repeat: Is Enron a hitter's park?
6biliruben
      ID: 5849314
      Thu, Jul 20, 17:37 		Uhhhh..., no?
7KB8ers GM
      ID: 0616111
      Mon, Jul 24, 23:31 		Madman, Guru Jr - In all due respect, I say yes, Enron is a hitter's park.

* That term HomEron Field was made up by Lima and fellow Stro pitchers after what they witnessed in the pre-season and the first 2 weeks of the season. With that short porch, even Lima and Holt hit HRs on a regular basis during BP.

* Veteran Gary Sheffield actually said that Enron was much easier to hit HRs in than notorious Coors. Did he say that in response to a media-created myth? Nope, he said it after inflicting serious damage there.

* I've seen all too many times, Enron HRs resulting from batted balls that appear to be routine pop-outs.

Personally, I don't use hyrogliphic extrametrical contricular methaslophorbic pitching statistic charts to make decisions for me. Not only can they be decieving, but IMHO, I find them to be over-kill, non-sports talk-like and thus non-fun. I'll take MLB player quotes, what I've actually seen and gut instincts over them and continue to avoid Stro pitchers.
8What about Bob
      ID: 506212013
      Tue, Jul 25, 00:39 		Madman:

While I find your chart extremely colorful(I love the pretty purple one), and most of it informative, I also must take SERIOUS issue with you regarding Enron field. I think you are WAY WAY off base.

I hate to do this(just not my thing), but let's bring some statistics into this Enron thing.
1st-YOU can not group the American league with the National League when comparing ERA's. That is simply comparing apples to oranges and you KNOW it. If anyone else reading this doesn't understand why, I'll defer you to Madman.

OK, on to the good stuff.

When comparing ERA's in the NATIONAL league only we find that only the Rockies(5.63) have a poorer ERA than the Astro pitchers(5.51). Care to guess who is 3rd??(the answer will appear at the bottom, no peeking) Coincidence-perhaps, let's continue.
HR's given up by pitching staffs, Tied for 1st place, YOU guessed it Colorado and Houston 146 each. Care to guess 3rd? Which pitching has given up the most runs? Houston(586) FOLLOWED by the Rockies(559). Care to guess 3rd?
I suppose you can AND WILL argue, "well that's because those 2 pitching staffs suck", perhaps. So let's give YOU more data and statistics. Only this time let's check out the Houston hitters- HOME vs. AWAY. YOU will NOT be able to dispute this data.

I think for comparison the best way to look at this data is simply to give you the numbers.
The Houston Astros have hit a total of 147 HR's. 80 at home vs. 67 away. Big deal you say right?
WRONG, that only tells part of the story. HERE IS THE CLINCHER; The Astros have hit those 67 away HR's in 1751 official AB's for a ratio of 1 every 26.13 AB's. The Astro's have hit their 80 HOME Hr's in ONLY 1581 AB's, for an incredible ratio of 1 every 19.76 AB's. That is a STAGGERING DIFFERENCE. Wouldn't you agree?
NOW, I'd love to hear your arguement as to REALLY why Enron favors pitchers.





















The Chicago Cubs, who just happen to play in Wrigley Field aka "The Friendly Confines"
9Madman
      ID: 44633210
      Tue, Jul 25, 00:41 		I would agree with the assessment that you should avoid Stro pitchers.

I'll grant you that more home runs will be hit down the left field line. But I don't see why it is implausible that the benefit hitters get from that particular dimension of the park is largely offset by the large centerfield area or the air-conditioning or some other effect.

I think your Gary Sheffield quote is reason enough to ignore the quotes from MLB players. There is no comparison between the two parks (Coors and Enron) in terms of their overall effect on the game.

Statistics can be deceiving, but so can quotes from pitchers who have lost their confidence and their change-up. At least you can calculate the probability of statistics being "deceiving".

Finally, it is logically impossible to have a chart make a decision for you. All decisions are based on statistics and data, either implicit or explicit. A "gut" feeling is no more than your brain computing a bunch of observances and synthesizing it in some way so that you believe it makes sense. What statistics and evidence you expose your brain to prior to the formulation of the gut feeling is all that is at issue here.

Most of us inadvertently expose ourselves to biased points of view if we rely solely on anecdotal statistics and data collection like you advocate; the primary advantage of carefully constructed statistical data is that it washes away those biases and forces us to see the world from different view points. If you can accomplish that mental flexibility without statistics, good for you. The majority of us lay people need a reality check from time to time, however.
10Razor
      ID: 18650614
      Tue, Jul 25, 00:56 		Sheffield hit 2 amazing HR's at Enron, one way way way out, the other just barely. The blast landed on top of the big wall out there and bounced out of the stadium. The other was one of the finest displays of power/worst displays of park design I've ever seen. I love Sheffield and he has immense power but if anybody saw that high and tight pitch he took over for an Enron will know the field is just a tad short. That said, that was an awesome display of power.
11Madman
      ID: 44633210
      Tue, Jul 25, 01:39 		WaB You asked for my arguments for why Enron "favors" pitchers:

I repeat my assessment in post 4 that the reason Enron has been relatively favorable to SW managers this year is because the pitchers tend to go a bit deeper in the game, thus more SWP's.


The differential in HR's for the HOU batters is striking (although after just today the rate for the road games has now dropped to below 26). I've never argued that fewer HR's will be hit at Enron. In fact, I would argue the opposite -- more HR's will be hit in all likelihood.

But, there are two pertinent questions here.

First, what is the effect on starting pitchers in terms of SWP's? Neglible so far this year. In fact, starting pitchers have done BETTER there than you'd expect. This is the question I tried to provide evidence for or against with the table, above.

Second, does Enron help hitters? The answer to the second can be different from the answer in the first. And I didn't have direct evidence in the table, thus my post 5 to address this separate question.

In terms of overall numbers, I don't see a statistically significant difference, especially concerning data from starting pitchers (data from post 5) which is much broader in scope than the numbers you present above -- the starting pitching data has earned runs scored by the offenses of HOU AND the opposition. The second group there you leave out. And HR's are but a piece of overall offensive effectiveness, albeit a big piece.

Finally, it's interesting you should point out Coors. They indeed have a worse ERA than HOU (5.63 to 5.51 or so). However, check out their relative ERA'S. Hou's ERA is basically identical Home/Away. Colorado's splits are 6.63 to 4.76 home to road. Hmmmm. If Enron is ANYWHERE close to Coors, wouldn't you see something similar?

Thus, I still do not see any signficant evidence to indicate that Enron is, in aggregate, a hitter's park. In leiu of something striking, and because I believe statistics can lie, I see no reason to believe it.

And the media-hype that HOU should be treated anything like Coors (like Rotonews does, for example), still hasn't been supported by any arguments I've read. And even rotonews has now issued a caveat that their color scheme warnings for Enron may have been premature.
12walk
      ID: 104739
      Tue, Jul 25, 08:00 		A powerhouse thread! Might good analysis, rationale and written communication skills! Especially biliruben's post #6. Very concise.

Madman, your chart is most useful. KB 8ers GM, to each his own, right? I think Madman was most eloquent in his appropriate use of these stats. It's a take it or leave it thang.

WaB, tall order going toe to toe with the Madman of stat analysis...but I respect your HR ratios. However, as Madman alluded to, HRs are not the entire piece of the Enron puzzle. To me, I think one has to take all of the available information (stats, player's quotes, quality of Houston pitching, and one's own biases) and do their own internal regression equation. In these cases, I'm the sure the error variances will be large though!

Either way, good job, Madman, I really like the colors, too!

- walk
13Stuck in the Sixties
      ID: 584122610
      Tue, Jul 25, 09:12 		Since I don't really comprehend the chart, I'll limit myself to kudos to KB8 for his post that brightened an otherwise ordinary day.
14JKaye
      ID: 19443421
      Tue, Jul 25, 09:45 		I think a distinction needs to be made. WaB makes good points that support the fact that Enron is a very good homerun hitting park for righties. But that does not make it a hitter's park. I do not know all the dimensions but Ido know it is a very fair 320-325 to right field line and 436 to center. Sheffield found it easy because left-center is the problem area. That said, more homeruns for righties does not make it a hitter's park. I think the biggest stat that cannot be ignored is Madman's on home/away ERA splits. Those are really convincing. So, Houston hits more HR at home? You would expect with their top two guys being righties that this would be true.
15dgreds
      ID: 3242938
      Tue, Jul 25, 10:05 		Madman, you are right that Enron has turned into more of a pitchers' park than hitters' park this year. That doesn't necessarily mean that it will stay that way but it has been that way so far. Baseball Prospectus figures out park effects similar to the way you do. I'm not sure exactly how they calculate it but they have Enron as a pitchers park. Here are their park effects that they used to calculate their pitcher statistics.

COLORADO ROCKIES 54.20%
TEXAS RANGERS 14.50%
CLEVELAND INDIANS 13.70%
BOSTON Red Sox 8.40%
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 7.90%
KC Royals 6.30%
MINNESOTA TWINS 5.10%
TB Drays 4.70%
TORONTO BJ 4.70%
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS 3.20%
OAKLAND ATHLETICS 3.20%
DETROIT TIGERS 1.40%
SEATTLE MARINERS 1.40%
PITTSBURGH PIRATES 0.90%
MILWAUKEE BREWERS 0.30%
CINCINNATI REDS -0.30%
CHICAGO White Sox -0.90%
MONTREAL EXPOS -1.90%
CALIFORNIA ANGELS -2.50%
CHICAGO CUBS -2.90%
BALTIMORE ORIOLES -5.70%
STL CARDINALS -6.90%
HOUSTON ASTROS -7.30%
SF GIANTS -7.30%
NY METS -8.40%
NY YANKEES -9.80%
ATLANTA BRAVES -11.60%
LA Dodgers -14.50%
FLORIDA MARLINS -20.00%
SD PADRES -29.10%
16JKaye
      ID: 19443421
      Tue, Jul 25, 10:29 		Enron's dimsensions(from astros.com)

Left Field Foul Line: 315 feet
Left Field Power Alley: 362 feet
Center Field: 435 feet
Outfield Deepest Point: 436 feet
Right Field Power Alley: 373 feet
Right Field Foul Line: 326 feet

Clearly, to left it favors righty power hitters. Not counting environmental effects that I am unaware of that effect the travel of the ball, one can say that the park is fairly generous to the power allies. For a team like Houston, with fly ball pitchers, it is clearly not beneficial. Is it worse than Coors? No way. Many parks have similar dimensions. Enron is basically Camden yards to left, Old Tiger Stadium to center and Yankee Stadium to right.
17 Mark L
      ID: 4444938
      Tue, Jul 25, 10:33 		Anyone have access to home/road data broken down by month or week? I ask because it might be possible that Enron, like the BOB, has different effects depending on whether the roof is open or closed.
18dgreds
      ID: 3242938
      Fri, Aug 11, 12:18 		Madman, in post 5 you said that you can update the table on demand. Could you please give us an update?
19steve houpt
      ID: 337580
      Fri, Aug 11, 12:46 		Mark L - they close and/or open the roof in the middle of games, so I'm not sure what you will find by month. You can't even check by game. I know watching Wednesday, they commented on the effects on a popup to right that fell between Berkman and ? Spiers saying they had opened the roof in the last half inning and 'look what it did to that pop up'.
20Madman
      ID: 44633210
      Fri, Aug 11, 13:14 		Wow. This thread had gotten buried, and I had all but forgotten about it! Glad to see it was useful to someone.

The Weighted Schedule component wasn't as easily updated, so I'll have to drop that until further notice. Sorry.

Team BALLPARK TEAM POINTS AGAINST ROAD BP Tm FACTORS
Name G Pts Avg G Pts Avg G Pts Avg G Pts Avg Factor Tm Road Tm Home
Ana 126 3240 25.7 115 3285 28.6 115 3735 32.5 104 3780 36.3 -10.6 1.1 -9.5
Ari 126 5645 44.8 114 6280 55.1 114 4415 38.7 102 5050 49.5 -4.7 4.1 -0.6
Atl 104 3895 37.5 114 6035 52.9 114 3965 34.8 124 6105 49.2 -11.7 2.9 -8.8
Bal 106 3710 35 113 3330 29.5 113 4120 36.5 120 3740 31.2 3.8 -2.5 1.3
Bos 106 4305 40.6 110 4925 44.8 110 4405 40 114 5025 44.1 -3.5 4.5 1.0
ChC 114 5975 52.4 112 5115 45.7 114 4690 41.1 110 3830 34.8 17.6 -4.9 12.7
ChW 112 3310 29.6 114 4820 42.3 114 2530 22.2 116 4040 34.8 -5.2 -12.5 -17.7
Cin 118 3945 33.4 114 3920 34.4 114 4260 37.4 110 4235 38.5 -5.1 2.8 -2.3
Cle 110 3285 29.9 111 4285 38.6 111 3415 30.8 112 4415 39.4 -9.5 -1.7 -11.2
Col 112 765 6.8 113 2610 23.1 113 3975 35.2 114 5820 51.1 -44.3 19.9 -24.4
Det 114 4155 36.4 113 3270 28.9 113 4900 43.4 112 4015 35.8 0.6 5.9 6.5
Fla 120 5380 44.8 114 4140 36.3 114 5900 51.8 108 4660 43.1 1.7 13.7 15.4
Hou 110 3830 34.8 115 3200 27.8 115 4435 38.6 120 3805 31.7 3.1 -0.1 3.0
Kan 112 2765 24.7 114 2550 22.4 114 4220 37 116 4005 34.5 -9.8 4.6 -5.2
Los 110 5260 47.8 113 4830 42.7 113 4795 42.4 116 4365 37.6 10.2 0.3 10.5
Mil 110 4590 41.7 115 3125 27.2 115 6560 57 120 5095 42.5 -0.8 20.2 19.4
Min 114 3825 33.6 117 3460 29.6 117 5150 44 120 4785 39.9 -6.3 9.9 3.6
Mon 112 4570 40.8 110 3640 33.1 110 4400 40 108 3470 32.1 8.7 -1.6 7.1
NYM 110 4875 44.3 113 5655 50 113 3940 34.9 116 4720 40.7 3.6 -4.1 -0.5
NYY 114 4150 36.4 110 4485 40.8 110 3985 36.2 106 4320 40.8 -4.4 1.3 -3.1
Oak 112 4080 36.4 113 3955 35 113 3190 28.2 114 3065 26.9 9.5 -13.7 -4.2
Phi 110 5405 49.1 113 5195 46 113 5560 49.2 116 5350 46.1 3 10.5 13.5
Pit 116 5230 45.1 114 4210 36.9 112 5395 48.2 112 4375 39.1 6 7.9 13.9
Sdg 114 5705 50 115 4135 36 115 4865 42.3 116 3295 28.4 21.6 -5.6 16.0
Sea 112 4655 41.6 115 5415 47.1 115 2050 17.8 118 2810 23.8 17.8 -28.0 -10.2
Sfo 114 4845 42.5 112 4850 43.3 112 2760 24.6 110 2765 25.1 17.4 -21.4 -4.0
StL 116 4545 39.2 114 5950 52.2 114 3160 27.7 112 4565 40.8 -1.6 -8.7 -10.3
Tam 118 4095 34.7 113 2675 23.7 113 5235 46.3 108 3815 35.3 -0.6 9.4 8.8
Tex 116 2960 25.5 112 3445 30.8 112 3345 29.9 108 3830 35.5 -10 -2.2 -12.2
Tor 114 3620 31.8 117 3825 32.7 117 3260 27.9 120 3465 28.9 2.9 -10.7 -7.8
TOTALS 3402 126615 37.2 3402 126615 37.2 3402 126615 37.2 3402 126615 37.2



One thing to look at is the differences between the two tables. If a ball club's adjustment factor has changed substantially, that obviously is an indication that it is very hot or cold. Act accordingly.


statistics in terms of SWP, through 3402 starts (8/10).
21 Mark L
      ID: 4444938
      Fri, Aug 11, 13:21 		Thanks for the update to the Albert O. Hirschman of Rotoguru.com :)

Steve H -- the only place that I have ever seen an "open/closed" breakdown for the BOB (or any other park) is in the STATS Inc. Green Book. I know they do pitch-by-pitch tracking of every game so they have the data to make the comparison, even if the roof position is changed mid-game. What I haven't been able to find is any mid-season data like this for BOB or any other open/closed park (Toronto, Safeco, Enron). Gotta be out there somewhere . . .
22Eat Acid
      ID: 37232713
      Sun, Aug 27, 13:29 		BUTT--> Gotta try something new with my starters.
24
      ID: 286291422
      Sat, Jul 14, 22:29
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