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0 Subject: Pitcher Workloads Revisited, Part II

Posted by: Madman - [44633210] Sat, Jul 22, 13:09
So, how much does the three-start "Danger Zone" index matter (350 pitches or more in 3 consecutive starts)?

To look at the issue, consider the following tables, which show every instance of a pitcher exceeding 350 pitches within 14 days.

Because the group of pitchers that is asked to throw 350 pitches in 3 starts is likely better than average, I consider primarily a deviation from a pitcher's mean to help determine whether or not there is a "fatigue" factor.

It turns out that the above-mentioned workload negatively affects most pitchers. The average "deviation" is -12.6 SWPs, meaning that after a pitcher has thrown 350 pitches in 3 starts, their NEXT start averages 12.6 points BELOW whatever that particular pitcher's season average has been.

So much for the hot-streak theory, huh?

This reasonably large negative effect (it's equal to a roughly 20% reduction in the effectiveness of the average pitcher in this group) comes from two main sources, I think.

First off, there is an injury factor. Just look down this list, and you'll see what I mean. Dead arms and DL's abound. Take out Ponson's, Carpenter's and El Duque's biggest negatives (most obvious injury candidates), and that negative effect drops to 9.2 SWP's for the remaining pitchers (still a 16% reduction).

Secondly, I think there is a very simple fatigue factor. I haven't analyzed all the data (and don't really intend to), but it's interesting to note that after a Danger Zone stretch, the average pitcher in his next outing only throws between 3 and 4 fewer pitches than his season average. Therefore, the reduced point totals must be at least partly due to a reduced effectiveness per pitch, rather than managers taking it excessively easy on post-Danger Zone pitchers (3 pitches isn't even equal to one out, obviously).

Conclusions and/or Further Theories:
-- Pitch counts DO matter, and the 350 points / start index is amazingly important even in the short run.
-- Even "studs" have been affected by this. See the data.
-- Don't ride hot streaks that entail large pitch counts from the pitchers. I personally look for "hot" pitchers who have ALSO have relatively low PC's. I think a) that is more sustainable, and/or b) likely due to better command / mechanic improvements that are more likely to last.

Enjoy!
Madman


Data to follow.
1Madman
      ID: 44633210
      Sat, Jul 22, 13:11
Name Count S1 S2 S3 Next PC Next SWP 3 G Pt. Avg Season Pt. Avg Dev
ALeiter 352 7/07 7/01 6/26 113 -15 98.3 78 -93
ALeiter 358 6/21 6/16 6/09 102 65 91.7 78 -13
ALeiter 374 6/16 6/09 6/03 108 45 116.7 78 -33
ALeiter 358 5/17 5/11 5/05 98 75 138.3 78 -3
ALeiter 370 5/11 5/05 4/30 111 140 105 78 62
ALeiter 355 5/05 4/30 4/25 124 140 55 78 62
AndyBenes 350 5/21 5/16 5/10 90 -35 86.7 66 -101
Appier 366 7/08 7/03 6/28 88 15 20 39 -24
Appier 377 7/03 6/28 6/23 109 40 20 39 1
Appier 352 6/23 6/17 6/11 111 -10 81.7 39 -49
Appier 355 6/17 6/11 6/05 120 40 88.3 39 1
Ashby 352 4/21 4/16 4/09 89 -55 75 29 -84
Astacio 359 6/14 6/09 6/03 103 25 66.7 49 -24
Astacio 350 6/03 5/29 5/24 123 100 73.3 49 51
Astacio 351 5/29 5/24 5/19 118 120 70 49 71
Astacio 369 5/24 5/19 5/13 103 -25 83.3 49 -74
Astacio 371 5/19 5/13 5/08 129 125 100 49 76
Astacio 371 5/13 5/08 5/03 119 110 83.3 49 61
Astacio 366 5/08 5/03 4/28 121 15 83.3 49 -34
Bottenfield 353 5/21 5/16 5/10 100 25 -3.3 30 -5
Bottenfield 364 5/16 5/10 5/05 97 -85 66.7 30 -115
BRadke 354 5/14 5/08 5/03 102 140 40 53 87
BRadke 351 5/08 5/03 4/28 110 5 51.7 53 -48
Burba 352 6/05 5/30 5/25 109 35 106.7 50 -15
Burba 353 5/13 5/08 5/03 88 -55 81.7 50 -105
CCarpenter 355 6/14 6/09 6/03 70 -130 83.3 17 -147
Clemens 373 6/09 6/03 5/28 28 0 35 60 -60
Clement 364 7/09 7/04 6/29 99 65 81.7 43 22
Colon 350 6/24 6/19 6/13 81 -40 61.7 61 -101
Colon 364 6/13 6/08 6/03 99 5 91.7 61 -56
Colon 350 6/08 6/03 5/28 132 50 105 61 -11
CPark 350 5/29 5/24 5/19 114 55 60 55 0
CPark 357 5/24 5/19 5/13 115 125 75 55 70
CSchilling 350 7/07 7/02 6/27 81 80 126.7 60 20
Escobar 366 6/10 6/04 5/30 109 -5 45 40 -45
Escobar 354 6/04 5/30 5/24 109 -30 61.7 40 -70
Finley 357 5/31 5/26 5/20 109 120 61.7 65 55
Finley 378 5/26 5/20 5/14 105 90 43.3 65 25
Finley 374 5/20 5/14 5/09 117 50 41.7 65 -15
Finley 362 4/29 4/24 4/16 104 -35 155 65 -100
Glavine 373 6/06 6/01 5/26 99 75 15 71 4
Glavine 350 4/30 4/25 4/19 95 75 145 71 4
2Madman
      ID: 44633210
      Sat, Jul 22, 13:15
Name Count S1 S2 S3 Next PC Next SWP 3 G Pt. Avg Season Pt. Avg Dev
Helling 371 7/13 7/08 7/03 107 105 70 56 49
Helling 382 7/08 7/03 6/28 106 20 78.3 56 -36
Helling 375 6/13 6/07 6/02 102 35 3.3 56 -21
Helling 372 6/07 6/02 5/28 122 55 1.7 56 -1
Helling 352 6/02 5/28 5/23 124 -55 48.3 56 -111
Helling 366 5/02 4/25 4/19 72 115 75 56 59
Helling 362 4/25 4/19 4/14 136 130 78.3 56 74
Helling 367 4/19 4/14 4/09 116 40 96.7 56 -16
Hitchcock 367 4/30 4/25 4/19 80 -15 50 34 -49
Holt 351 6/03 5/28 5/23 115 0 93.3 33 -33
JBere 372 7/09 7/04 6/29 81 -85 98.3 35 -120
JJohnson 351 6/28 6/22 6/17 92 -30 6.7 11 -41
JSchmidt 353 5/29 5/24 5/18 109 -30 25 23 -53
JSchmidt 363 4/14 4/09 4/04 75 35 30 23 12
KBenson 353 6/20 6/15 6/10 111 0 115 69 -69
KBenson 350 5/30 5/25 5/19 105 50 101.7 69 -19
KBenson 351 5/14 5/09 5/03 116 175 91.7 69 106
KBrown 355 7/06 6/30 6/25 105 30 115 101 -71
KBrown 364 6/30 6/25 6/20 109 155 75 101 54
KBrown 356 6/25 6/20 6/15 123 70 116.7 101 -31
KBrown 353 5/21 5/16 5/10 101 100 103.3 101 -1
Kile 354 6/13 6/07 6/02 111 0 125 65 -65
Kile 362 6/07 6/02 5/28 118 70 111.7 65 5
Kile 370 6/02 5/28 5/23 109 155 110 65 90
Kile 352 5/28 5/23 5/17 127 150 63.3 65 85
LHernandez 363 7/09 7/04 6/28 108 65 41.7 49 16
LHernandez 374 7/04 6/28 6/23 102 5 76.7 49 -44
LHernandez 354 6/23 6/17 6/11 129 -20 38.3 49 -69
LHernandez 361 6/17 6/11 6/05 113 110 16.7 49 61
LHernandez 397 6/11 6/05 5/30 107 40 41.7 49 -9
LHernandez 379 6/05 5/30 5/25 134 -35 103.3 49 -84
LHernandez 381 5/30 5/25 5/19 120 45 96.7 49 -4
LHernandez 356 5/25 5/19 5/14 143 115 51.7 49 66
LHernandez 351 5/14 5/08 5/02 122 25 66.7 49 -24
LHernandez 354 5/08 5/02 4/26 118 -20 88.3 49 -69
Loaiza 351 4/28 4/22 4/16 93 5 100 28 -23
Mays 355 5/17 5/12 5/07 70 -75 85 18 -93
MHampton 364 6/05 5/31 5/26 32 -5 61.7 52 -57
MHampton 358 5/14 5/09 5/03 79 115 95 52 63
3Madman
      ID: 44633210
      Sat, Jul 22, 13:18
Name Count S1 S2 S3 Next PC Next SWP 3 G Pt. Avg Season Pt. Avg Dev
Mussina 366 7/13 7/07 7/02 83 25 93.3 63 -38
Mussina 367 7/07 7/02 6/27 125 55 111.7 63 -8
Mussina 351 7/02 6/27 6/21 120 140 45 63 77
Mussina 354 6/27 6/21 6/16 121 85 46.7 63 22
Mussina 359 6/16 6/11 6/05 104 -60 98.3 63 -123
Mussina 358 4/29 4/24 4/19 77 -35 65 63 -98
Nathan 353 7/05 6/29 6/24 29 0 43.3 38 -38
Nathan 352 6/29 6/24 6/18 122 105 25 38 67
Neagle 374 7/07 7/02 6/26 116 120 108.3 66 54
Neagle 355 7/02 6/26 6/21 138 135 81.7 66 69
OHernandez 351 6/13 6/07 6/02 49 -135 83.3 55 -190
Parris 351 7/03 6/27 6/22 97 100 61.7 22 78
Pettitte 353 7/05 6/29 6/25 101 35 50 43 -8
Pettitte 355 6/29 6/25 6/20 107 55 73.3 43 12
Pettitte 351 6/25 6/20 6/15 125 150 10 43 107
Pettitte 354 6/20 6/15 6/10 121 -55 40 43 -98
PMartinez 351 6/25 6/20 6/14 104 105 80 135 -30
PMartinez 350 5/12 5/06 4/30 91 130 176.7 135 -5
Ponson 367 7/01 6/25 6/20 47 -75 65 36 -111
Ponson 352 6/04 5/30 5/24 116 100 81.7 36 64
Ponson 360 5/30 5/24 5/18 121 90 43.3 36 54
Ponson 361 5/24 5/18 5/12 111 90 15 36 54
RJohnson 355 7/15 7/09 7/04 124 165 100 134 31
RJohnson 359 7/09 7/04 6/29 124 70 128.3 134 -64
RJohnson 363 5/21 5/16 5/10 83 155 108.3 134 21
RJohnson 361 5/16 5/10 5/05 133 65 141.7 134 -69
RJohnson 374 5/10 5/05 4/30 104 130 150 134 -4
RJohnson 365 5/05 4/30 4/25 126 130 151.7 134 -4
RJohnson 354 4/14 4/09 4/04 101 170 183.3 134 36
Rogers 360 6/25 6/20 6/14 103 85 60 53 32
RPerson 364 6/13 6/07 6/02 81 50 66.7 70 -20
RPerson 351 6/07 6/02 5/27 123 80 60 70 10
RPerson 352 5/21 5/16 5/10 110 60 91.7 70 -10
RuOrtiz 363 6/02 5/27 5/21 94 -45 36.7 13 -58
RuOrtiz 356 5/27 5/21 5/16 111 0 25 13 -13
SEstes 357 6/16 6/10 6/04 79 -5 75 47 -52
STrachsel 352 5/11 5/06 4/30 104 0 116.7 32 -32
Suppan 354 6/14 6/09 6/04 90 -5 41.7 32 -37
4Strike One
      ID: 496441210
      Sat, Jul 22, 13:19 		great work madman
5Madman
      ID: 44633210
      Sat, Jul 22, 13:26
Name Count S1 S2 S3 Next PC Next SWP 3 G Pt. Avg Season Pt. Avg Dev
Tapani 373 5/26 5/21 5/16 96 95 53.3 53 42
Tapani 379 5/21 5/16 5/10 114 30 78.3 53 -23
Wolf 359 6/14 6/09 6/03 101 80 71.7 68 12
Wolf 364 6/09 6/03 5/28 124 30 98.3 68 -38
AVERAGES 104.4 46.1 76 58.8 -12.6


note that column sums and averages may not appear to be exact because of rounding.

Also note that having to split this table up into this many chunks is a pain in the [alternate word for donkey but reference to human anatomy.]
6Madman
      ID: 44633210
      Sat, Jul 22, 13:58 		In case these pages ever get separated, here is the Pitcher Workloads Part I thread:

Pitcher Workloads.
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