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0 Subject: The Ump's Perception: A Pitcher's Plus.

Posted by: PNT
- [561131613] Sun, Apr 01, 22:49

I've been interesting in gaging the ump's
perception of the new strike zone and have come to
a conclusion after observing several spring
training games and the opening day game: Pitchers
will profit. Maybe this self-proclaimed baseball
prophet has had one too many brews after watching
AROD trip twice, but honestly, to me it appears so
far this season the umps are calling the higher
strike zone but are calling the narrower strike
zone fairly loosely or not at all. Which means the
strike zone for the premier part of the season is
larger than last year's zone until the umps can
compensate their strike zone perception to call
the narrower zone. What pitcher's will be rewarded
by recognizing this insight remains to be seen but
indeed at the end of April I can guarantee
pitchers will have racked up more points this year
than last year. Anyone care too take a guess at
pitchers who will benefit this year from the new
strike zone? I'm quite curious to hear which
batters you think will benefit from the new strike
zone as well?.....
1Matt S
      ID: 57543213
      Sun, Apr 01, 22:59
Well, obviously the higher strike zone will benefit pitchers who regularily utilize the top part of the strike zone. Those are usually pitchers who throw heat. RJ, Percival, Benitez, etc, come to mind. I wonder if this will work the opposite for breaking ball pitchers? Or will their production remain unchanged? What effect will this have on hitters? It should benefit power hitters with open stances, the way I see it. Tony Batista could have a huge year if this is right. What effect will it have on extreme closed stance players? All questions that will be answered in the first month or so of the season...

Hopefully it will significantly reduce run production...

Matt S
2PNT
      ID: 561131613
      Sun, Apr 01, 23:10
Batista has the potential to overtake AROD in HR's
by the end of the season. Only if he is consistent
and hits better than .275 this season.
3Steve Biz
      ID: 02411620
      Sun, Apr 01, 23:37
Breaking ball pitchers are said to benefit hugely from the higher strike zone because their curves often dip from above the old zone and into it and umps would still call it a ball-- now it's a clear strike-- making the hitter's life real tough because if he thinks a pitch is high but might dip than he's got to swing whereas in the past he could get away with letting it go because the umps would give the hitter the benefit of the doubt as to when the pitch entered the strike zone. Did I confuse you? 'Cause I confused myself....
4Madman
      ID: 29246911
      Sun, Apr 01, 23:39
Curveballers face perhaps an even bigger advantage than high heat guys, IMO.

Over the last decade or so, the strike zone has shrunk vertically so much so that it's hard for the guys with great curves to get it land in the zone. Great curves drop more than they go side to side. By getting the "high" strike, there's a bigger chance that they'll get a few calls occasionally.

Of course, if they hang them and hitters get used to swinging at them . . . there is a chance for this to backfire. . . but a lot of hitters have been swinging at those sorts of mistakes anyway.
5Padkee
      ID: 1657179
      Mon, Apr 02, 08:48
I believe that it will take a few weeks for the pitchers and hitters to adjust from always looking "down" in the zone. The hitters that have learned to swing down on the ball (Charlie Lau theory) will have the most difficulty adjusting. The hitters with a slight upper-cut (Ted Williams theory of hitting) will benefit the fastest. Roger Clemens comes to mind as one that will benefit immediately. Gary Sheffield (I hate his attitude but love his hitting) may explode due to his quick bat.
6Madman
      ID: 29246911
      Mon, Apr 02, 08:51
Oh yeah. One more thing. Did you happen to see who umped game #1? John Hirschbeck. One of the most notorious pitcher's umps in the game, IIRC.

I don't think anyone is surprised that he's keeping his old wide strike zone. In fact, he might have had a tighter zone yesterday than usual, but it would just look normal for almost any other ump. We need to get a look at some other guys before making any preliminary conclusions.
7PNT
      ID: 561131613
      Mon, Apr 02, 12:00
Estabn Loaiza had the best opening day start in
BlueJay history. I wonder if any other clubs will
see new marks set today. We'll wait and see. :)
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