Posted by: Ira
- [17112317] Sat, May 26, 18:40
Hey, I've been hearing alot about this "Guru Rotation" of pitchers. I think I'm missing something because I've never actually seen it. Can someone please tell me the Guru Rotation, and who is using it, and for the people that are using it, does it work good? Thanks alot
Then take a break after your brain overloads...I know mine did. ; )
2
KB8ers GM
ID: 0616111 Sat, May 26, 19:12
Its a pitcher trade strategy I've never used and never will.
3
The Left Wings
ID: 4341614 Sat, May 26, 19:32
It's a pretty risky strategy and won't help your roster value. I might consider it towards the end of the season, but I'm just one of those who aren't sold on that "trade efficiency" idea.
Basically, you have 4 fixed pitchers and 1 used for guru-rotation. You hold the same 5 pitchers for two weeks, accumulating 6 PT, then you burn them all at a rate of one a day. Guru argues that, for example, between two Pedro starts, you get 4 other starts from that spot. So 4 trades result in 5 start for an "efficiency" of 0.8. To me each trade results in exactly one extra start, therefore it doesn't matter when you use it.
It's definitely something that requires some thought though.
4
JKaye Sustainer
ID: 4711592917 Sat, May 26, 20:16
Left Wings--You make it sound like Guru is arguing a debatable concept. It is a FACT that the efficiency of getting 4 pitchers for 5 trades is .8, and that Randro-ing is .5.
The only debate that can be made is about which method will get you more TOTAL POINTS. KB8ers seems to think that other methods will do this. Others prefer stringing together more starts, including myself. We've both had success in SW so clearly both can work. Either way, one thing remains certain. The efficiency of a Guru rotation is higher than that of Randro and you are wrong in saying "To me each trade results in exactly one extra start, therefore it doesn't matter when you use it." The concept is discussed more than enough times on the boards so I won't go any further.
5
slar
ID: 52737610 Sat, May 26, 20:33
Not risky at all, I've been using it all season. I have a roster value about $72 million and a WWR of 28. I haven't Randro'd at all this year. It was my strategy before the season started and has served me well.
6
KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 51521713 Sat, May 26, 22:32
I just got through a Guru-Rotation on my points team and cut my WWR in 1/2 to the 700's. Also made some nice money as each starting pitcher went up at least $100-130k on the day I had them and I avoided the drop-off.
7
KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 51521713 Sat, May 26, 22:34
Actually, Left Wings' method is a bit more strict than what I did. Basically, I just made as few PT's as possible since the middle of April. Over time I managed to accumulate 5 PT's. TUE came around and I had 8 PT's and I started a Guru-Rotation then. You don't have to go tradeless for 2 weeks to work this out. You just have to be very conservative for about 3-4 weeks.
8
Gary
ID: 381157822 Sat, May 26, 22:46
The Guru rotation takes patience and I give credit to those who can do it. As for wether or not more starts give more points I disagree on that. It is more QUALITY starts give a person more points. QUALITY being the main thing to remember.
With that said I say that a form of the Guru Rotation is the way to go. But don't force yourself into a rigid routine. What I am saying is don't pass up a favorable matchup just because you want to do the Guru Rotation. Also while doing the Guru Rotation don't force yourself to pick an unfavorable pitcher matchup just because you want to pick a pitcher every day.
With that said good luck to all for I am sure that the way the season has started that we may just be able to beat last year as far as the # of gurupies who make the top 100.
Go Gurupies:)
9
slar
ID: 52737610 Sat, May 26, 23:35
Gary, you are right. Some days in the middle of a rotation you just have to pass because there is no one decent to pick. Ideally the quality guys like Pedro, RJ, Mussina, Maddux, Brown, Hampton, ... all pitch on different days. The convergence we saw last week made it a little difficult to rotate but I still got some good starts. As has been said before, there are many ways to skin this cat. This just happens to be the method I'm using.
10
BZ
ID: 5511153119 Sat, May 26, 23:52
I generally don't subscribe to the Guru-Rotation because it is hard to line up 5 consecutive good pitchers. This week, it's looking like I will do a half-assed Rotation (RJ>KB>Pedro>RJ), not quite the efficiency, but I have my confidence in those guys over basically any other pitchers in the game.
11
sosa
ID: 7319162 Sun, May 27, 00:01
I have a question for people like KKB who refer to their teams as "Money Team" and "Points Team" and so on. If "Money Team" has a higher WWR than "Points Team", does "Money Team" then become "Money And Points Team" and "Points Team" become "The Team With No Name"? I mean it seems somewhat rhetorical, but seriously, can you really have a Points Team that doesn't have a strong RV? Do you completely ignore the WWR of your Money Team? I can understand having more than 1 team, but to label them as such seems quite odd to me.
12
The Left Wings
ID: 2131321 Sun, May 27, 01:13
JKaye, that's the exact thing I'm questioning the validity -- I do not believe in the way you measure "efficiency". I believe that if you were to compare, you should compare the number of starts in one cycle, ie from the end of last guru-rotation to the end of the current guru-rotation. Don't forget that if you don't Randro, you lose about 3-4 Randy starts during the cycle when you're saving up your on PTs (let's not talk about superhumanistic PT conservationists like KKB). I think it is unfair if you don't count those starts and concentrate on that one week. Yes, you'll likely get more SWP during the rotation week, but what about the other two weeks? Think about it... Randro vs guru-rotation, assuming the other 4 spots stay the same. 7 Randro starts vs 3 Pedro starts during the first two weeks (cuz Randy goes more often). 2 Randro starts vs 6 guru-rotation starts during the rotation week. So, after a cycle, you'll get the same number of starts, 9 (+/- 1 depending when you start a cycle). I firmly believe that those 3-4 Randro starts are being overlooked when you're saying that guru-rotation has a higher efficiency and therefore is better.
13
stinkypuff
ID: 4446260 Sun, May 27, 07:43
sosa: the difference between a "money team" and a "points team" is in trading strategy. if your money team outpoints your points team -- well, i guess you should knock on wood and keep going for the money.
14
Josh Gibson Donor
ID: 593481913 Sun, May 27, 08:57
Slar-Do you Guru Rotate and then wait another two weeks to bank 5 trades and then begin the process all over again? I'm real interested in your process because obviously it's working. Thanks.
15
JKaye Sustainer
ID: 4711592917 Sun, May 27, 09:17
Left Wings--do it the way Guru does it. Measure it over 35 days. Make an excel chart, and in one column Randro, in the other Guru-rotate every two weeks. You should be able to see the difference that way. Count how many total Pedro starts there are. Your efficiency will be: Non Pedro-starts/trades. You will find the Guru-rotation column gets more non-Pedro starts, and thus has a higher efficiency.
16
KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 51521713 Sun, May 27, 11:00
sosa, in response to your question, the worse thing a manager can do is to label their teams "Money Team", "Point Team", etc. then change that once one team starts leading the other. I did something similar to that in hockey this season and it messed up my strategy for a couple of weeks. Anyhow, the way it breaks down is like stinkypuff said. Basically, you start the season and you have 2 teams. On one team (Money Team), the strategy is to gain the most money you can. You attempt to hop on money trains (, Pujols, JuanGone, etc.) while avoiding money flops (Myers, Sanders, Jenkins, etc.). With this strategy, when I look at players to pick up, 70% of the decision is their money potential and 30% is their point potential. I'm not too concerned about points because the idea is that more money now leads to more points later with better players. On your other team (Points Team) you attempt to jump on hot players (Gonzo, Floyd, ARod, etc.) while avoiding those who had one or two hot games. With this strategy, it's 70% points and 30% money when making your decision. The idea is that points now will lead to money down the road which leads to more points.
So now the Points team appears to be at a severe disadvantage because of money, but this isn't entirely true because money follows points. If you're picking up hot players, they'll eventually get you money, just not as fast as the Money team players.
Again, you don't change the strategy of these teams though. The only one that ever does change is the strategy of the Money team and that only happens when you have more than enough money (July/August?) that you don't need to worry about it anymore. But you don't change them this early in the season.
So how's it working out? Money Team (1 HT, 2 PT) 1989 WWR $76.54M
Point Team (5 HT, 0 PT) 860 WWR $71.79M
Mixed Team (50-50 in decision, 1 HT, 1 PT) 7134 WWR $70.83M
You can see that, with me at least, a Mixed strategy doesn't work as well. My Mixed team is last in points and in money. It's because there's no clearly defined strategy. I'm chasing both points and money which is chasing everything in SW. You can't do that and succeed. At least I can't. So now you have a taste of the Money vs. Point strategy and how they don't change until late in the season when both strategies become Points oriented.
Hope this helps.
17
slar
ID: 52737610 Sun, May 27, 11:15
Josh,
I drafted and have held Daal and Shaw all season. Two other slots I've had to tweak slightly since my originally drafted guys didn't pan out. Currently holding Morris and Sasaki in those slots. In the fifth slot I have Pedro. I always start and end the rotation with him. For those times I'm not rotating he is the must have pitcher.
I completed a rotation last week which left me with 4 pitching trades. After Tuesday, 5/29, I'll have seven and rotate out of Pedro his next start. Ideally, that should leave me with 2 PT until the following Tuesday, 6/5, when I get 3 more trades. Since rotating then would deplete all of my trades I might wait awhile before starting again since I don't like to run of trades. I try to look at the probable starter information before trading out of Pedro and map out in my head each trade. As I said in post #9, some days just don't have anyone worth drafting and I just pass that day. I don't like doing that but sometimes it's necessary.
The key for me to make this work is to have 4 pitchers in the non-Pedro slots I can trust since I'm not using those spots to trade and make money.
18
Kyle
ID: 0482721 Sun, May 27, 22:05
This is probably a stupid idea but I plan on holding Radke,Miller,Mulder,Mays and Schilling to save up trades for later on. I may be forced to sell Radke or Miller due to their price losses of late. I have made a little over a million off of each of them and am happy with my gains. I am considering Mesa, he seems to be doing better than he has in his whole career. He is 14/14 in save chances. Anyone else using this strategy or looking at Mesa?
19
Josh Gibson Donor
ID: 593481913 Sun, May 27, 22:46
Thanks Slar. True enough you have to have pitcher s in the 2-5 slots that you can trust but you have to be making a nice penny doing the Guru-rotation?
I have finally managed this season to save 5 PT's. 6/5 I will have 8 and will begin my first ever Guru rotation.
If I get this correct. I trade for 5 consecutive days (ideally) ending on the fifth day with the pitcher I started with, correct? So in other words, or mapped out for me; Pedro to Kile to Schilling to Randy to Ortiz to Pedro. Sound about right? I've average intelligence my friend. Thanks again.
20
Strike One
ID: 39252299 Sun, May 27, 22:48
if you are going to pick up a clsoer pick up jeff shaw. mesa's WHIP (Walks and Hits per IP) is over 1.5.
21
slar
ID: 52737610 Mon, May 28, 01:24
Josh,
You've got the concept down. In fact, if you can grab pitchers of that caliber that's when this rotation is at its best.
Best of luck to you.
slar
p.s. This will make you money.
22
Great One
ID: 491025139 Mon, May 28, 01:33
i always pick up stud pitchers 2-3 days before their starts in order to gain max $$$ and never trade into a pitcher unless I have the trade to get back out, they pitch on tuesday, or I plan on holding... well duh.. but still i just feel its a waste of $ and trades to trade for a guy who pitches the next day - why not get two days of gains (or more) instead...
23
slar
ID: 52737610 Mon, May 28, 01:48
I believe in getting the most points per trade not the most $$$ per trade. Not everyone does.
Great One, I'm curious what your WWR and RV are.
24
Lutefisker
ID: 59421106 Mon, May 28, 02:08
REally... you can do several variations of the Guru Rotation. The whole point is that you trade into a pitcher who is pitching the next day. By doing so, you will maximize the amount of games that your starters will have over the course of a season.
Frankly, I seldom have a full Guru Rotation, but I do look for runs of 2 or 3 days in a row when I can string quality pitchers together.
I use that in conjunction with picking out star pitchers who for one reason or another have little competition for trades on a particular day. Usually a star pitcher who pitchers on a Monday when there are few other games being played has a better chance of going up in price.
Sometimes I will go for the money when it appears that there will be a big jump in the price of a certain pitcher, say when there are 2 or 3 big pitchers pitching and then no good pitcher the following day followed by only one star pitcher the day after.
In essence:
the basic theory behind the Guru and similar rotations is to maximize points at the expense of some dollars.
and
the basic theory behind the Randro and similar rotations is to maximize dollars at the expense of some points.
Frankly:
Early in the season the Randro and similar rotations (where a player is picked up 2 or 3 days before his start) seem to make more sense because one should be putting more effort to trying to increase ones dollar value.
Later in the season the Guru and similar rotations seem to make more sense because one should be working more for points rather than dollars as the season evolves.
25
Wammie
ID: 437541618 Mon, May 28, 02:31
Didn't Randro start off as a way to get all of Pedro and RJ starts with 1/2 the money, then it morphed its way to a way to earn money? that is how I remember it.
26
Lutefisker
ID: 59421106 Mon, May 28, 06:52
yes... the concept on any rotation is to get more pitching starts out of the same amount of spots...
In the case of the Randro, one is using ones trades in order to have all of the starts of Randy and Pedro using the same money and spot in the lineup.
This is also true of the Guru rotation except it is incorperating more pitchers into the scenario.
27
APerfect10
ID: 524122718 Mon, May 28, 08:00
The Left Wings
I have also argued against the Guru Rotation. What is being called trade efficiency is a moot point. The only thing that matters is the total amount of quality starts.
Everytime I bring up my points no one stands behind the Guru Rotation and the thread drops to the bottom, therefore I will not argue against it once again.
28
KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 51521713 Mon, May 28, 09:37
AP10, the fact that the GuruRotation has a higher efficiency (starts/trade) means that, in the end, you are getting more quality starts.
29
APerfect10
ID: 524122718 Mon, May 28, 09:41
KKB, If that is so, please count out the starts for me with both Guru Rotation & a regular rotation. Thank You.
30
slar
ID: 52737610 Mon, May 28, 10:02
If I use my stud spot to pick up guys like Kevin Appier and Kenny Rogers then I wouldn't be getting any extra quality starts. However, I tend to pick up guys like RJ, Brown, Kile, Hampton, Maddux, Wood and Schilling. Along with these 'studs' there are plenty of pitchers that could put up a big score given the right circumstances. There's a whole lot of guys out there that can give you a quality start.
Guru tried to sum it up for you: "For those who remain confused, the best method is to plot out your total staff starts over a 5 week period, assuming pitchers work every 5th day. If you use no trades, you'd get 35 starts, because each pitcher would start 7 times in 35 days. Efficiency measures how many extra starts are gained (over the baseline of 35) per trade used."
Use whatever rotation you like, but the point about efficiency is extremely valid. Whether it makes sense to you or not. It's not gauranteed to move you up in the standings, but it can increase your chances of doing so.
32
KrazyKoalaBears
ID: 51521713 Mon, May 28, 10:09
AP10, I'm not going to count it out. I just know that the GuruRotation has a better (start/trade) efficiency. What more is there to know? You can't get a higher trade efficiency and trade efficiency leads to more quality starts. Why is there a need to count it out when math tells you that it's going to lead to more starts?
Now if you're comparing it to a rotation where you just hold players, that's completely different because you're not spending any trades. I'm comparing the GuruRotation to a RanDro style or a style where you just trade when a player does bad or when you see someone you want.
33
JKaye Sustainer
ID: 4711592917 Mon, May 28, 12:30
If Guru wrote an article on it, don't you think there is something to it? Disagree witht the strategy after the fact, fine, but don't argue with Guru's actual points about how many total starts you get. Guru is right.
34
Strike One
ID: 39252299 Mon, May 28, 13:02
I've saved 5 PT on one of my teams and with 3 more tommrow i plan on guru-rotating for the week with my "B" team. when next tuesday comes around i'll have another 3 PT leaving me with 4 PT. hopefully this'll move my former "A" team's WWR up into the 1000's (currently 6000)
RE 35 I think you would have to be like 10,000 points back to be too far too make up. Theres like 155 games left per team. Plenty of time.
38
Ender
ID: 13443221 Sun, Apr 06, 2003, 00:53
You can Guru rotate at any time. Watch the probables for a string of 4 or 5 starts you'd like to have. Obviously you need to have enough PT's banked to execute it. In the past I have started with 3 in the bank on Sunday and rotated right through 2 of my Tues PT's.
That being said, I think it would be wise to wait until the stud pitchers get shifted in their rotations. That is, wait until you can rotate through solid studs Pedro > RJ > Schilling > Zito for example. I am in no hurry to rotate at this point although I did take advantage of Pedro > Schilling > Zito last week. I hope to bank several PT's in the next 2 Tuesdays though it is likely that I will pick up a cheap pitcher (Hernandez) or 2 along the way.
Thanx for the response Ender and DH. I'm looking for next weekend to begin. I'll start with 9 pitcher trades. But I'm 600pts out of first in my division. I worry if I'm building a hole I cant get out of. THis is my first shot at a guru-rotation so I'm prepared for some ups and downs.
I think we need to get out of besketball mindset. In basketball 600 points would be tough to make up. You basically know what most gusy are gonna do. If you get Kobe you are almost assured o fat least 30 and hopefully up to 80.
In baseball the numbers range much more. Your catcher could go off for 60 points tomorrow while his gets 2. Your pitcher could go off for 150 while his gets -50. Now repeat those spreads over 190 more days of games. Plenty of time to catch anybody.
So I agree eith ender on this. It might be more valuable to you to wait until the studs are aligned to rotate between them.
Rate this thread:
If you wish, you may rate this thread on scale of 1-5. Ratings should indicate how valuable or interesting you believe this thread would be to other users of this forum. A '5' means that this thread is a 'must read'. A '1' means that this is a complete waste of time.
If you have previously rated this thread, rating it again will delete your previous rating.
If you do not want to rate this thread, but want to see how others have rated it, then click the button without entering a rating, or else click here.