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Subject: 2020 RIBC AAA ESPN Draft Recap
Posted by: Seattle Zen
- [301361318] Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 14:50
This thread is for your (optional) overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say. Guru uses this in The Show, I thought we could also do it for AAA Pacific Coast League ESPN this year.
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Non-managers are also free to post comments or ask questions. |
| 1 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 14:53
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1) Every year I enter the draft with the intent to lead the league in pithy, wry comments during the pre season. I load up on snark and simple, stat-based observations in my draft rationales so I can coast the rest of the year.
There really isn’t much differentiation one can do for strategy in a snake draft. I guess you could try to win by refusing to draft any starting pitchers like greydog has attempted in The Bigs this season. That’s doomed, can’t be done. Holt has won in RIBC when he has purposefully punted saves, but you have to be militantly active as a manager day-today, all season long like Holt in order to pull that off.
I did not enter the draft planing to punt steals, it just kinda happened. Steals are starting to feel like wins in fantasy, a stat that doesn’t have the same import it once had forty years ago. Fantasy baseball leagues using points are getting more popular because a good points system will reflect the true value of a player’s performance and that necessitates diminishing the value of steals. The majority of players with high numbers of steals are taken in the first 40 or so batters these days, one could say that the first two or three rounds are a “steals run”. Miss out up top and you will struggle to find the 90 steals you need to simply pull in 4 or 5 points in the category. With that in mind, I guess I cast my fate when I took JD Martinez at pick number 20. The last, best five category bats were taken before I went with Manny Machado. I figured that if I focused on ratios and counting stat value from that point forward, I should acquire enough talent to secure double digit results in those four categories. As the draft went along, I noticed that Goatlocker has horded all of the steals, and I mean ALL – Trey Turner, Villar and T Pham. We have very few trades in RIBC, one cannot count on being able to address a shortcoming via trade in this league, but maybe with Goat (or Valkarie with Mondesi and Malex Smith) a trade that is beneficial to both sides could be accomplished sometime during the season.
I did have a plan, though, and that was to draft TAY – Oh – SCAR this year. I think a player with a ADP in the 300s it is perfectly acceptable to plan to take him. I just didn’t imagine him being my seventh outfielder selected. He has a pretty pedestrian projection in Steamer or ZIPS, but Baseball Prospectus loves him and projected 16 steals… he did show some speed in the minors.
There are three schools of thought regarding closers – those that are ardent believers in the value of top closers, those of a C-Losers school, and those who participate in the closer run. I see the merits in all three approaches and therefore usually end up in the closer run crossing my fingers that I find value. Yes, the top performing closers provide some of the best pitching value. Some years it is obvious who will be among the top closers and the top guys perform as advertised. Other years those top guys lay an egg. Josh Hader is young and strikes out a ridiculous amount of batters he faces. It did not cross my mind to take him at #52. Tosh took him at #56. In a shortened season, he could actually have an even better final line if the Brewers win a bunch of close games, management might feel that they can up his usage rate. But I struggle wrapping my mind around taking such a volatile product when Josh Donaldson or Matt Olsen or DJ LeMahieu are on the board. There are some managers who say they want to take a middle draft slot simply because they don’t want to be left out of a closer run. Did anyone feel that they were left holding the bag when the closer run started late this year? I think our lemming instincts were suppressed this season, perhaps a fantasy COVID-19 virus spread among us?
The cessation of Spring Training upset the closer market. Since majority of the value of the reliever is dependent upon the anointing of the status of closer and a few teams every year make that decision late in March, the absence of any closer news suppressed the value of players like Mychal Givens, Tony Watson, B Kintzler, Magill and Hirano. Likewise, there was no “surprise, Player X is going to be our closer, not Player Y” bombshells this spring so there may be more golden tickets inside of regular looking RPs this year.
2) My favorite picks? Well, I would start with Gerrit Cole. As I mentioned in my rationales, I took pick number 13 because it was pretty luck for me in an earlier draft. I ended up with Trey Turner there, G Cole slipped down to 12th. Oftentimes manager’s favorite picks are simply the players they they pegged as breakout candidates, but I think that is not the question at hand. Yes, I think Tay-oh-Scar will breakout and I will look like a genius, but I think Lordes Gurriel Jr. is one of my favorite picks because I landed him at #205. He went #159 in RIBC, #146 in Yahoo and he’s #146 NFBC. I’m actually very fond of all my outfielder picks, David Peralta is undervalued #276/ I also love my M Givens and Matty Magill picks for the reasons I mentioned above.
What would I do over? Maybe I would pass on Manny Machado and take my chances with Justin Verlander, Adelberto Mondesi, or Clayton Kershaw, in that order. I’m not buying K Huira at that price nor Baby Bo Bichette. I would be willing to ride with Corey Seager as my SS as I do worry that Machado’s home park splits are pretty average.
3)What teams other than my own do I like?
Well, it’s odd of me to say this, but I find myself liking Blue Hen’s team. Yes, I thought Garrett Hampson was a turrible pick, to quote Charles Barkley, but most of us have poor second basemen, so that is understandable. He took fewer moon shots this season and has a pretty stacked squad. I like Val’s team even if Trey Mancini doesn’t play a single game this year. Sherzer, deGrom and Verlander are a wicked three headed hydra. He doesn’t need the 14 innings that D German and Forest Whitaker, I mean Whitley, will give him this year. I don’t think Carlos Martinez has been anointed the closer, but if he is, that will be a great pitching staff. Tosh, JeffG and Toral’s teams all look formidable.
Teams that made me scratch my head are – sparkyanne. Looking at her offense, I see a lack of slugging and counting stats, then I notice that she didn’t take a starting pitcher until the 8th round so I can’t imagine her pitching numbers will be that great, either. You cornered the market on second basemen, though. Larry’s squad, great pick with Mike Trout, kinda downhill from there. Tim Anderson is not a second rounder, the went in the 8th round in RIBC and Yahoo. Your infield of Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Lowe, Kyle Seager and Tim Anderson is a little meager. You will also find that spending a 16th round pick on a second catcher was unnecessary. Commish Judy had a GREAT draft last year, she was in second place as late as July last year. I suspect that a simple regression to the mean and, well, age based decline will mean that um, she will still be the Commissioner next year. Thank you for that, Judy!
4) What surprised me most about the draft? That I only complained once about how slow it was going. I tell you what didn’t surprise me, Chris Sale going under the knife.
5) If I could start the whole thing over, would I do anything differently? Of course. I mean, look at the AA draft. Many of the same owners yet they pick different players. I would always take G Cole at pick #13 but every pick after that could be different.
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| 2 | Toral
ID: 9541311
Mon, Mar 30, 2020, 16:23
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look at the AA draft. Many of the same owners yet they pick different players. I would always take G Cole at pick #13 but every pick after that could be different
I always try to pick different players in AA than in AAA unless there is a guy who is a mortal lock that can't be avoided.
Differentatiation. In AA, we're just there for fun, to provide some competition to the genuine players, the ones who have a chance to move up to RIBC.
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| 3 | Species
SuperDude
ID: 07724916
Thu, Apr 02, 2020, 13:23
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Likely to my detriment, typically my draft preparation focuses on a general structure over the first five rounds - i.e. how many SP, hitting ratios and hoping for steals - and all of the 'sleepers' in the back 3rd of the draft, say from round 16 on. No, I do not ignore those middle rounds, but you can lean upon ADP / ECR etc to just help guide you along the way. To me, mailing in the draft from round 16 or 17 on is where managers really fail, and I wanted to be on top of the potential breakouts late.
Did it work? As they say, "the best laid plans of mice and men".....ADP, ECR, sleeper news and job battles basically were thrown out the window when Spring Training was shut down due to the coronavirus. That created the most unique draft in my 25+ years of playing Fantasy Baseball. With NO idea exactly when the season may start, it created a potential treasure trove of opportunities for players who were injured in the offseason or during Spring Training. Some people will get really lucky on hitting on some of those lottery tickets.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
The two most obvious are studs that I drafted much later than they would have been if they were healthy and the season was not pushed out:
- Mike Clevinger at 5.11 - I took him while guessing that he might be back in mid-to-late April. With the season pushed out, Clevinger is a top 10 stud that probably would have been a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick, which was just dumb luck on my part.
- Giancarlo Stanton at 7.11 - I took him the morning after the NBA season was canceled. Stanton was already participating in live batting practice at that time.....and under the assumption that the season would be delayed, I jumped on the chance to draft him. I did so being perfectly aware that he is injury prone, but 80% of Stanton (in a scenario where he is NOT injured to start the year) at 7.11 is worth 100% of others drafted here. While Clevinger was dumb luck, jumping on Stanton was absolutely strategic.
I liked my duo of Brewers in Avisail Garcia (16.06) and Justin Smoak (18.06). While true there will be times where they have days off to accommodate Ryan Braun, their batted ball profiles suggest success, particularly batting 5th and 6th in a stacked Brewers lineup. Yoenis Cespedes is an intriguing lottery ticket at 23.11.
I'm nervous now about Gavin Lux at 9.11 and Brett Gardner at 20.06. Lux is by far the most talented player, but murmurs out there are that the Dodgers do not want to just give him the job. If he doesn't grab the bull by the horns he could be a problem. For Garndner Aaron Hicks and the rest of the Yankee outfield - let alone Stanton, Judge, Andujar and Frazier - are all on the mend and things are just be too crowded.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
JeffG has some of the best hitting and took an interesting turn on his pitching. If he hits on some of his pitchers he would be interesting. I think twilson and I were reading the identical pitching sleeper articles, because nearly everyone he drafted was someone I liked. He has balanced hitting (maybe light on sb, but competitive) and pretty strong pitching.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
This draft was all about the coronavirus and the delay of the season. That completely blew up your projections and ADP data points. It changed the value of injured players as well as SP coming off of injury or moving into starting rotations. In my eyes, guys like Luzardo, Urias, McCullers and others - all projected for more-or-less 110-150 innings originally - should have been shooting up draft boards because their relative projected innings will now be much closer to the top 30 SP at the start of the year.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Nah.
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| 4 | GO
ID: 141062421
Sat, Apr 04, 2020, 21:19
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? I'm always a hitting guy, save for the one year I went with a wacky pitching strategy and all the pitchers got hurt... Draft slot was important to start with hitters and not leaving me even thinking about a pitcher. I wanted one of the top 3 and selected #2 slot for that reason. SB's were a concern early cause i always struggle to find them. I would have picked Acuna if i didn't have him last year in RIBC. Want to mix it up with Yelich this time. Also a better AVG and I think OBP.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over? Favorite picks in hindsight are ones where the delay will help some guys be ready on time -- Ohtani at 7.02 (crazy flex bonus went as early as 4th round in one RIBC) and McCutchen who will be good to go to start the season and great OF to round out a lineup.
I'd probably do over the Albies pick. I reached for him and have the earliest pick of him based on the consolidated summary... but I always struggle to find MI and speed... and I thought he checked both those boxes and he wouldn't have made it back to me 30 picks later. So if the player isn't going to make it back, then i guess its never a reach.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
How about Judy?! great OBP, power, flex hitters... a little thin on pitching but that can be found
Like all youngroman's picks except Gallo who I never liked.... and Thumqer takes all my young upside IF hitters -- Tatis, Bichette, Moncada.... wish that was my G20 squad!
4. What surprised you most about the draft?Surprised closers weren't wiped out early like the usually are in RIBC. People showed some patience with that stupid position.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently? Probably a slugger in the Albies slot, big time SB the next pick instead of pitching. Seemed like I could have waited a bit longer for a balanced veteran pitching staff.
I also nearly went the entire draft without a 1B! lol... lets go Vogelbach! who i know nothing about other than he'll get playing time most days and is 1B eligible still.
AND -- my team completely lacks flexibility beyond Ohtani... always something I focus on picking up. Major flaw from my perspective. Maybe Marte or Muncy would have been helpful. Tried to get some later on with JD Davis, Shaw, Riley. I usually like flex on nearly on all IF. ESPN also makes that harder however. Many prominent players lost extra positions on ESPN.
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| 5 | GO
ID: 141062421
Sat, Apr 04, 2020, 21:20
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anyone else getting Google ads all over this page? thats cool if Guru put them there I am just wondering if i got hacked lol
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| 6 | R-Money
ID: 153121721
Sat, Apr 04, 2020, 23:31
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@GO I just thought that massage gun was part of your recap....
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| 7 | GO
ID: 141062421
Mon, Apr 06, 2020, 08:46
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It says based on my history, i may be interested in...
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| 8 | JeffG
ID: 44182712
Mon, Apr 06, 2020, 12:05
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I have a few general guidelines to the approach I try to follow.
- get at least 1 premium SP in rd2 or 3 (never the first round... it did not work out in RIBC twice in my early years)
- remember that free published rankings are based on standard 5x5 so manually make your own to account for for walk rates and OPS over AVG/HR
- for hitters, try to focus more on the ratios with every day players, and projected lineup slot matters and counting will come.
- (new for this year) for starting pitchers, don't put any trust for win projections, make sure you get enough starters to try to exceed innings cap as you go as opposed to streaming garbage the last few weeks of the season to catch up - so planning on drafting 6SP this year where i usally take 5. Try to stay ahead of at least half the league with number of starters drafted as the draft progresses so your SP3 and SP4 are better than theirs.
- if i think someone is a reach, don't do it. If you are going to put the words 'hope for a bounceback' or 'injuries are behind him now' in your rational, maybe re-think
- exception to 'reach guideline' - do not wait for MI, very little late round roster help available, these are postions you do not need to fill.
- (new) wait for a closer, get someone steady, do not need a top tier.
- get more hitting instead of an early MR. There are always K guys available in the free agent pool.
- position flexibility helps.
- (when the season got delayed) - maybe re-look at players who should start the season healthy if/when the season starts.
- (new) streaming catchers is not a bad thing, don't need a top one, take one late and ride the next good thing.
Out of the above approach, here is where i think i did well:
Ratios. Guys like Soto, Springer, Doldson early, and Eaton and Khris Davis mid-dreaft all should be great for those coulmns... not many steals in this group however.
Wait on RP, MR: Got Workman in the 8th round and his handcuff as my main source of saves. Hoping Will Smith sees save opportunities. filled in RP in rounds 22-24.
Here is where i did not follow the plan
I do not have any position flexibility, and two DH only players drafted... TWO!
Steals. Oh, i did not have any plan for steals. Does it show? I hope a few of my players keep me away from the bottom of this category.
Catcher. When my pick came up round 9 i was not feeling the other options so grabbed a catcher early.
Here is one where it is a mixed bag:
Starters. Planned on 6 SP, only got 5. Got one 'ace' early Flaherty in RD 2. I did not stay ahead or even close with starters rostered. I was one of the last for an SP3 and SP4. So am stronger in hitting and will wait and see on adjusting my roster for pitching.
Usually I have my 'next pick' auto-queued up well in advance of my turn, and even though i did have my rankings set, I can say I was very distracted during the draft with work. With this Covid pandemic, work exploded with new requests from our customers (I am in IT and my company supports systems in use by state and local goverments, mostly courts). Usually by the time my pick is 2 or 3 away i have an autoqueue set. But i relied less on the queues mid draft on and more on just making the decision when it came to my pick.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I really like Soto, think he is a great core player for this format with the 4th overall pick. For sleeper potential I am expecting big things from Reynaldo Lopez SP in round 21.
dislike? Maybe would not have picked Andujar if i realized he did not have any positional eligibility and already a DH on my roster, but maybe he'll gain a position after about a month of games and i think he is a budding star.
So I am sitting here in Rockland County NY, one of the northwest subburbs of NYC. We are currently THE hot zone with over 6000 infected out of 300K residents. I beleive one of the few places in the world per capita with over 2% infected or recovering. My family and I are real good at social distancing. We have not left our property since mid March, except for my wife making one trip (6AM) to our grocery store last week, and then again for a take out order over the weekend (payed over the phone, curbside pick up - directly to our trunk). Actually I have not left my property now in 4 weeks, only my wife has, as I have had a prior heart condition that has her worried and she is basically chaining me to the radiator (figuratively). PLEASE STAY AT HOME. PLEASE STAY SAFE.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I am calling it now. Jaydog is the frontrunner and the team to beat.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
you mean other than the fact the pre season was shut down and the regular season delayed a few days into our draft?
Not much. Maybe a couple of minor things.
There was not a big closer run early. On average they are drifting further back year to year compared to where they've trended in earlier RIBC seasons.
also thankfully... there was less frustration with the slow drafters, even though i think we had a record number of time outs, and different people picks that timed out and a record number of differnt people (5) who timed out at least once. But there was no deadline to get this done unfortunately.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I'm good. I'm liking my team. I cannot wait to get to the season. I just hope we get 80+ games. There is probably a 50/50 chance there is no 2020 season. That would be bad.
Anyway, looking forward to getting this started when it does. Hope you and your friends and loved ones all stay clear of this virus, and if you do catch it, that you are asymptomatic and/or have mild symptoms.
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| 9 | jaydog
ID: 18328613
Mon, Apr 06, 2020, 14:28
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My strategy going in was to pay up for steals and high end starting pitching. This is normally counter to what historically plan, but I felt steals and elite arms were at an even higher premium than is typical, so wanted to spend at least 3 of my top 6 picks on speedsters and pitchers. Part of this plan was predicated on taking either Mookie Betts or Lindor at #5, but when Bellinger fell to me at 4 I couldn't let him pass. While Bellinger should chip in a few steals, he certainly isn't a category carrier like some other options may have been. My general plan was to then take a high end starter in round 2, and another speed guy or starter in round 3. Predraft, I had my eye on Flaherty, but he went, and in the 3rd round I liked guys like Albies/Marte, neither of whom was available.
So basically, after 3 rounds, my pre-draft strategy was out the window... time to adjust.
My other strategy, which I try for every year, is to draft 3+ closers, starting with one of the elite options, someone in the middle, and then grabbing an option as late as I can (even if a bad option, someone who has the job). I executed on this strategy well w/ Chapman, Kennedy, and Davis.
After whiffing on steals early, I do think I have some upside speed that I grabbed later in the draft. Newman, Berti, and Benintendi all have 20 steal upside. That's hopefully enough to put me in the middle of the catergory.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
The only pick I made that I really don't like is taking Torres in the 2nd round. I honestly don't know what I saw in him that I loved, as I think at best he has 3 category (slg, r, rbi) upside. There's no speed to speak of, and his OBP will be average at best, and likely below average. If his power and R/RBI hold from last season, he won't hurt me any, but if there's any drop off I think he'll be a bad pick. At least there's 2B/SS eligibility.
Other than Torres, I generally like all of my picks. There are a few guys that I probably reached on: (Benintendi, Newman, Kelly, Yaz, etc...) but none by more than a round or two, and all have upside to be year long contributors. There are also a few guys that I think I got really good value on (Muncy, Dozier, Brantley, ...) All in all I'm very happy with my draft. There were a few players I had as targets that I wasn't able to grab (Biggio, Meadows, Reynolds, and a few others), but I wasn't ready to draft any of them by the time someone else did, so am fine letting them go.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Strictly going off of the number of times I cursed another manager taking someone I really wanted, I'd say Dave Lipman (Greinke, Neris, Anderson, Senzel, Urquidy, and Murphy just to name a few), and Tosh (Robles, Reynolds, Manaea, Segura, and Choi).
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Pitching went earlier than I recall it going in prior drafts. I went into this draft expecting to draft starting pitchers earlier than I have in the past, but it appeared that many other managers did as well. Beyond that, I didn't notice any pressing trends. I was surprised that there were a few closers (at least to start the season) available in the late rounds.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Rethink the Torres pick, but other than that I'm pretty content with my draft.
Kudos to the league on a very well run draft, and double kudos to JeffG on his very shrewd analysis on the league front runner!
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| 10 | Judy
ID: 52321920
Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 21:24
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Gonna read over the recaps and comment. Gotta relook at my players as the draft was finished - what - 3 weeks ago. As I recall, I liked my first 12 or so picks and then I went haywire...but you did steal a lot of the guys in my later Q’s.
Don’t take anything personally. I’m really bored here.
Seattle, you are first!
Yeah my P tanked after July. So sad.
I suspect that a simple regression to the mean and, well, age based decline will mean that um, she will still be the Commissioner next year. Thank you for that, Judy!
Age based decline”? Who you talkin’ ‘bout?
Guys I’m pretty sure I am older than all of you!
No problem - better to be alive and kicking...
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| 11 | Judy
ID: 52321920
Thu, Apr 09, 2020, 21:45
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Thanks GO.
Don’t forget about my SB too.
P are really weak tho. I did have good ones Q’d when it was time to pick them, but the really good ones I wanted weren’t there so I began to stretch for a sleeper or two or three, mostly looking for K counts...
Will provide details eventually...
Please everyone stay safe.
I am homed here in central Florida with no idea when I can make back to Philly. I think I have plenty of TP... I am ok with food, wouldn’t hurt to lose a few lbs, a neighbor makes regular trips to a little produce store and she picks stuff up for me.
Nothing activity wise is open for us except golf, which I loath. All buildings are closed except the essentials. Walking, murder gardening (off with your branches, you ugly thing!), doing ladder drills, hitting the pickleball against the garage wall, starting up pilates again — trying to stay in shape to hopefully resume full action once this ends. I was going resume flute practice after 16 years, but one key combo (D) is busted and my other flute is up north. That coulda killed a couple hours per day for sure...
Hopefully you are finding things to do even if it is work from home.
Actually tonight I am watching the replay of the Eagles Super Bowl win! Much more fun to watch when you know the result...
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| 12 | GoatLocker
ID: 492542212
Tue, Jun 30, 2020, 10:03
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Those players who have said they will not play this season.
Mike Leake, Diamondbacks
Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals
Joe Ross, Nationals
Also a list of coaches that will not be in the clubhouse at the start of the season.
GL
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| 13 | Seattle Zen
ID: 301361318
Tue, Jun 30, 2020, 12:46
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Sixty day season, sixty day DL for Mitch Haniger. Now I'm down to six outfielders!
Sixty Day season, sixty three day suspension left for D German. If, and I say "if" the Yankees make the post season, German will miss their first three losses.
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| 14 | JeffG
ID: 55493012
Tue, Jun 30, 2020, 13:49
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Technically if I heard correctly, Germans suspension ends with the 63rd or last regular season game of 2020.... whichever comes first.. even without a season played this year he would miss no games in 2021, and is eligible for the post season at start up.
That said, I hope he got the help he needs and would not expect to see him this post season
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| 15 | JeffG
ID: 55493012
Tue, Jun 30, 2020, 13:53
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Expecting many more players to opt out this year
Perhaps we should have a pre waivers draft for those who lost slots to opting out players. Picks to be awarded in the order that the lost player was taken
If you lost a player to injury though you’re SOL
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| 16 | GoatLocker
ID: 492542212
Tue, Jun 30, 2020, 15:27
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Another to won't play list.
Ian Desmond, Rockies.
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