| 0 |
Subject: RIBC AAA: PCL Draft Rationales Rounds 1-5
Posted by: Species
- Dude [07724916] Tue, Mar 06, 2007, 13:04
This thread will be for managers in the RotoGuru Invitational Baseball Challenge AAA Pacific Coast League to provide the rationale for each pick.
Here are the ground rules:
1. Only managers in this league should post here. If you want to provide feedback (either from other league managers, or from those not in the league), put it in the discussion thread. (Non-conforming discussion in this thread will be deleted.)
2. Try to keep the pick rationales in the same order as the draft. We'll attempt to keep this thread 2 rounds behind the actual draft. With the lag, most comments should not have an impact on the draft in progress. However, if there are aspects of your pick that you feel need to be kept under wraps, feel free to protect that information. In particular, please avoid mentioning the names of any players who are still undrafted at that time of the post.
Please post your comments at the time you make your pick. For example, you should post your comments for your round 1 pick when you make your round 3 selection. If you are not ready to post at that time, then create a "placeholder" so that the next person is able to go ahead in sequence. When your post is ready, simply post it in the draft discussion thread and a moderator can copy it over.
If possible, please draft your rationale at the time your are making that pick. Not only does that allow you to remember your thoughts "in the moment", but it also makes it simple to copy and paste it when it is due, avoiding unnecessary delays and/or placeholders.
If your rationale is due and intervening placeholders have not been inserted, please insert them before posting your rationale. Simply post something like "2.10 placeholder for Guru". This makes it easy for me (or any moderator) to splice the eventual rationale in the proper place.
3. If you are providing rationales after a placeholder has been inserted, then post it in the draft discussion thread, and someone will copy it over.
4. Once the draft is over, each manager is also encouraged to provide a general draft recap, at which time you can discuss your overall strategy, mention any undisclosed factors, comment on what worked out well and what didn't, etc.
The general format should be:
1.01 Albert Pujols, OF, STL
Several sentences of rationale.
In addition, along with your first player rationale, please comment on your rationale for your selection of draft order. |
| 1 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 02:36
|
1.01 Albert Pujols, 1B, STL
Easily the best and most consistent player in the game. What's scary though is that he still most likely has not reached his peak yet, as last year was arguably his best yet even with missing time due to an injury. Reports are that he is perfectly healthy and ready to anchor my hitting corps.
|
| 2 | MBT
ID: 52279
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 10:04
|
1.02 Jose Reyes, SS, Mets Enie, meenie, miny, moe. Picking 2nd I could have gone any number of directions and I've been lamenting over that direction for about a week now. I ended up going with Reyes for his SB and runs more than anything else, but his other numbers don't hurt either. With SS being pretty deep this season I almost went another direction, but he seems to be the concensus #2 in most drafts.
|
| 3 | Cobwebs
Sustainer
ID: 058358241
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 10:40
|
1.03 Ryan Howard, 1B, PHI
MVP Howard was a monster last year, and at the age of 27 experts still don’t think that he can repeat those numbers. I’m looking for an improvement in OBP and even if his other stats will dip a bit he’s still #2 on my rankings. I’m very happy having Howard on my team.
|
| 4 | C1-NRB
ID: 24954318
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 11:07
|
1.04 Johan Santana, SP
A solid rotation anchor, Santana's numbers are low where they need to be low (ERA, WHIP) and high where they need to be high (W, K). I couldn't pass on the opportunity to build a foundation in all four SP categories.
|
| 5 | loki
ID: 27240617
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 11:18
|
1.05 Alfonso Soriano, OF, CHI
It was a toss up between Soriano and Arod, but I chose Soriano because of the combination of power and SBs. I was happy to be able to move up to the 5th draft position instead of #7 as I thought that there was a drop off in hitters after Soriano and Arod. However I would have been quite satisfied with Utley in the #7 spot. I think that MBT made a great choice with Reyes, and I would have been very happy to see him fall to #7,
|
| 6 | Weykool
Dude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 12:18
|
1.06 Alex Rodriguez, 3b, NYY
Picking A-Rod here was a bit of a gamble, but a gamble that could pay off very well.
Last year the top two players in the draft were Pujols and A-Rod.
Those that took A-Rod over Pujols made a bad pick.
The question is can he return to his previous form/numbers.
While his numbers were down they were not down all that much, just not what we expect from a number 1 or 2 pick.
If he continues to not live up to the A-Rod of a few year back he could be traded from the Yankees to a team that he could do better on without the intese media spot light that comes with playing on the Yankees.
Either way I expect his numbers to be up from last year but probably not where they once were.
That being said he is solid in all 5 categories and anchors my team in the anchor position.
Very happy to be able to build around him
|
| 7 | Andrew
Dude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 13:06
| via trade with Smith32
1.07 Chase Utley, 2b, PHI
When I was preparing for the draft I really wanted the 5th pick. I figured by looking at other drafts that I would be left with atleast one of Santana, Howard, A-Rod. But then the more I looked at it, 2nd base is just not deep at all. I would compare him to other top 2B, but another one hasn't even gone yet in the draft through almost 3 rounds. He should put up an OPS around .910-920, but I see .950 as a possibility. He'll score runs, knock them in and steal some bases. In the weakest position in the draft, getting help in 5 categories was huge for me...even if I could have gotten an extra .100 OPS elsewhere. I wanted the 6th pick figuring I was gauranteed Utley and might get one of those top 3 to fall to me, but when it came for me to decide the top 8 slots were all taken. In three other drafts I saw Utley go 9,9,10. I like being in the middle of the draft as well, so 9th seemed like the way to go. I saw a drop off after my top 7 guys though, but I saw reason to believe 1 or 2 of them would fall to me based on other drafts. When the last one(Cabrera) went 8 I knew I had to pull the trigger on the trade. I got who I wanted in the 2nd anyways, and hopefully dropping from the 8th round to 10th round wont be a big deal.
|
| 8 | allhair allstars
Dude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 13:07
|
1.08 Miguel Cabrera, 3b, FLA
I’m not one that prefers to produce rationales for my picks. It’s not painful… there’s no suffering that goes on… it’s just that a “rationale” implies that there was not just a reason, but a rational reason… and in my case that just might be a little deceitful.
For example, in an alternate universe, I might have been able to say I was following a specific plan to drop down to the eighth pick because I thought that Utley would be available at that spot. That and the fact that I figured that if I was in the middle of the round I’d be able to stay abreast of any possible runs that would occur, and that having a middle pick would keep me actively involved in the overall drafting process.
I think I’ve done ok with most of that… except of course for the fact that Utley went with the seventh pick instead of the eighth… only to get traded to the manager with the ninth pick. So began the first in a long list of miscalculated moves. And it’s still early, mind you.
Cabrera wasn’t necessarily who I had hoped to grab with the eighth spot, but I don’t think there’s any arguing even at the level he’s been producing, there’s still upside to his game, and with his overall numbers (including a few SBs here and there), he’s a solid first rounder. It’ll be interesting to see how the Fish respond to their new manager, but Cabrera’s a solid bet regardless.
|
| 9 | Smith32
Dude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 13:07
| via trade with Andrew
1.09 David Ortiz, 1b, BOS
Ortiz is a monster in every category but SB. I think 100 R, 140 RBI, and 1.000+ OPS is pretty reasonable. His 1B eligibility definitely helps in this league.
I decided to trade Utley (1.07, 2.10, and 10.10 for 1.09, 2.08, and 8.08) once allhair took Cabrera. Although I think Utley is definitely more valuable than Ortiz, I felt I could make that up by moving up in the later rounds. Plus I like rooting for Papi.
|
| 10 | Slackjawed Yokel
Dude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 14:50
|
1.10 David Wright, 3b, NYM
Well, I originally had Beltran ranked just ahead of Wright. But as it was approaching my pick I reconsidered. With the way this league is set up there is a lot more depth at OF than at 3b. So, as crazy as it seems, I opted for Wright in part due to position scarcity even in the first round. He provides a good mix of power and speed and is still only 24 so has tremendous upside.
|
| 11 | ksoze
ID: 52621719
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 15:59
|
1.11 Carl Crawford, OF, Tam
When I noticed Crawford was still available at 11 it took me a few minutes to realize that, because this is an OBP league, he's not quite the 5 category player he might be in a BA league and that was probably why he dropped so far. Nevertheless, I'd have felt like a fool passing him up here. His speed and increasing power should hopefully make up for what he lacks in patience at the plate and cause him to be a worthy pick in this spot.
|
| 12 | Toral
ID: 52621719
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 16:02
|
1.12 Carlos Beltran, OF, NYM
Beltran, if we throw out 2005 as a fluke off year, can be expected to put up a .370 OBP, .565 slugging and anywhere between 15 and 30 stolen bases. Last year he was better than that, at .388/.594. At 29 he should not be in a decline phase. Carlos says that he will be running a lot more this year because his legs are healthier. You hear that a lot in spring training and often it doesn't pan out but al least I appreciate his intentions.
I would have liked to see someone like Utley, Cabrera or Wright to drop this far but that was unlikely. I also considered Manny Ramirez (age, injuries), Jason Bay (I'm just not sure he's going to stay at his current level; I couldn't tell you why) and Grady Sizemore (not yet quite at Beltran's level, although he's young enough to grow to it this year) here.
|
| 13 | JeffG
ID: 146591911
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 16:05
|
1.13 Lance Berkman, OF, Hou
There are a good half a dozen players that could arguably go in this spot and the 4 others I considered did not make it back to me 6 picks later. I chose Berkman because this guy is like Ortiz in that he puts up sick production numbers, helped by playing in that little band box. Even if he has a drop off from last season's production, Lance should be good for triple digit RBI, close to 100 runs, and will be in the majors top-10 in both SLG and OBP.
|
| 14 | Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 18:14
|
1.14 Travis Hafner, Util, CLE
This seems to happen every year. My draft position gets picked and I make a list of guys that can be picked in my position.....now for the last two years none of the players I really wanted to take fell.
If not for Hafner's Utility-only designation, he would merit consideration higher in the first round. His OPS is exceeded only by Pujols and he ranks right up there with the Howards and Ortiz' of the world. He does seem to have some propensity for fluke injuries, but with him being young I will take that chance. Cleveland has the horses for another stellar offensive season, and Hafner's 4 category top tier production is a fantastic anchor to my offense.
The lack of position eligibility will undoubtedly factor in somewhere, but that's his only downside.
|
| 15 | darkside
ID: 181035120
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 18:20
|
1.15 Vlad Guerrero, OF, LAA
Vlad has, in years past, been a top 10 guy in every draft. But his recent injury problems and less gaudy numbers let him slip to me at the end of the first round. His OBP has been declining the last 3 years, so that's of some concern, but he'll still get in the .390 range while giving a solid .560ish slugging with 110+ rbis and near 100 runs. Tacking 15 SB on to that makes him a solid first round pick.
|
| 16 | JL
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 19:00
|
1.16 Manny Ramirez OF Bos
I felt like there were 15 "great" players in this year's draft...unfortunately I have the 16th pick. I considered Jeter, Holliday, and Sizemore, but I couldn't pass up the power numbers and consistency that Manny provides. It makes it very difficult to catch up if you ignore slugging percentage in the first few rounds.
2.01 Mark Teixeira 1B Tex
Teixeira was obviously down last year, but his second-half stats were right back in line with his monster 2005 season. Assuming that the first half of last season was a fluke, he is worthy of a top 15 pick.
|
| 17 | darkside
Dude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 19:01
|
2.02 Derek Jeter, SS, NYY
While I don't know Jeter can reproduce the year he had last year, I know he'll be one of the top SS in the game. From the MI he'll give reasonable power, great OBP, 110+ runs, 80+ rbi and 25-30 SB. Having 3 MI positions in this league increases the relative value of someone like Jeter, so it would have been tough to pass him up. And, I love the Yankees, so it's nice to have my fantasy team overlap my real world team as much as possible!
|
| 19 | Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 19:09
|
2.03 Bobby Abreu, OF, NYY
I think this will be a theme. Again I had three guys I really wanted with this pick: Manny, Teixeira and Jeter (I know Vlad would go for sure)....and how do they go....precisely in that freakin' order. Geez.
I actually tried to trade down because I didn't want to take a SS (Young, Rollins or Tejada) with this pick. I guess I shouldn't have gone to watch "Heroes" because Weykool sent a trade feeler....then after I replied I didn't get a response for like an hour so he must have bailed.
Early on, outside of a guy like Utley I'm going to look to "Best Player Available" as opposed to taking positional scarcity too much into account. Abreu's gaudy OBP and 100/100 run/rbi potential combined with 25+ steals made him the 5 category stud I wanted. I really debated between him and Sizemore but kind of took the "homer" route and picked a Yankee, despite being highly tempted to have the Cleveland duo anchor my offense.
|
| 20 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 19:13
|
2.04 Grady Sizemore, OF, Cle
After Manny/Vlad/Tiex/Jeet all expectedly fell off the board, there were a lot of ways to go with this pick. I was looking at 3 OF (Grady, Ichiro, Bay) and a SS Tejada. Was real close to taking Tejada and am still semi-second guessing myself. It is tough to trust Grady's projections because alot will depend on where he ends up in the Tribe order, but should get at least 100 R and about 25 steals if he leads off as I expect, or 100 RBI bit a few less R and SB if he bats lower. Gets alot of XBH which should help the SLG. After a breakout season he is primed to improve on last years numbers. (note - this last sentence of my rationale sounds alot like something I likely said last year regarding Jason Bay, who ended up having a very good season last year but he had a slight drop off from the prior break out year).
|
| 21 | Toral
ID: 52621719
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 19:26
|
2.05 Garrett Atkins, 3B, Col
The top offensive talent available here was outfielders (Bay and Holliday were still available) but I didn't want to start with two in a row. I wasn't interested in one of the starting pirchers available here. So I looked for someone near the bottom of a tier at the CI and MI positions.
Atkins played nearly as well on the road last year as he did at home; if Coors Field reverts to its usual status as a hitting park he could put up incredible numbers. At 27, he's in his prime and I believe he can put up numbers like his 2006 .409/.556/117/120. After Aramis Ramirez the quality of available 3Bmen takes a drop so I am happy to have acquired one of the 5 top performers at the position.
Justin Morneau was the only other player I seriously considered here but first base is deep.
|
| 22 | ksoze
Leader
ID: 04619323
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 20:18
|
2.06 Chris Carpenter, SP, Cards
He has Cy Young potential each year and could conceivably be a late 1st round pick in a 16 team league, I figured he'd be a bargain with the 22nd pick. With a some luck and a little help from that changeup he's adding back to his arsenal I could be looking at 20 wins, 210 k's and an ERA and WHIP of +/- 3.00 and 1.10. Not bad for the 22nd pick of the draft.
|
| 23 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 811371220
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 20:47
|
2.07 Roy Oswalt, SP, Hou
I didn't feel strongly about any of the hitters here - I considered Bay and some of the shortstops, but opted for a SP here. I would've taken Carpenter, but I'm happy with Oswalt. I've had him several other years, and hopefully his offense will help him to some additional W's this year.
|
| 24 | Smith32
Dude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 22:10
| via trade with Andrew
2.08 Miguel Tejada, SS, BAL
Part of the reason I made the trade was because I wanted Tejada and thought moving up 2 spots might make the difference. Since Andrew took a SS with my pick, it is possible he would have taken Tejada had we not traded.
Tejada is reliable and puts up solid numbers - I've got him for about 100 / 100 / .370 / .500. Maybe a few token steals. Pretty good for a MI.
|
| 25 | allhair allstars
Dude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 22:11
|
2.09 Jason Bay, OF, PIT
The weirdness of this draft for me is accentuated by the fact that my first two picks were players that I’ve never had any and league, ever. Is that important? No, but as they say - familiarity breeds… familiarity. It remains to see if the Bucs continue to drag a little on Bay’s numbers, but with the stronger lineup protection in LaRoche, I figure Bay for more of the same from last year’s numbers and (perhaps) then some… He’s a solid contributer in 5 cats, and 15 SBs are not wildly unreasonable to expect, although I’d be happy with 14. Ok, I’d be happy with 13…
It’s entirely possible, in retrospect, that I should have popped the cork on one of the shortstops still on the table, but that didn’t happen, and realistically, it’s Jason Bay, fer pete’s sake. Hey, you said rationale, not in-depth rationale…
|
| 26 | Andrew
Dude
ID: 07724916
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 22:12
| via trade with Smith32
2.10 Jimmy Rollins, SS, PHI
As much as I dislike having two players off that terrible team from Philadelphia through 2 rounds, I targeted this tandem from the start. Going after position scarcity, I was happy to assemble a middle infield that could contribute well across the board. This pick should have me set on steals for a while too, which is nice.
|
| 27 | Weykool
Leader
ID: 41750315
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 22:34
|
2.11 Joe Mauer C Twins
Was trying to trade up with Species in order to get Carpenter.
Species didn’t get back to me in time so I kept my pick.
Very happy to get Mauer here.
The list of decent catchers is very short and the drop off is tremendous after the top catchers are gone.
Might not put up the numbers he had last year but will be very happy if he is around his career numbers.
I can live with 400 OBP 475 SLG 70 R and 70 RBI especially when you get it from the backstop position.
|
| 29 | loki
ID: 17348117
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 22:37
|
2.12 Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA
Chosen for his SBs. Of course over 100 runs each season helped me to decide on Ichiro for my 2nd round pick.
|
| 30 | C1-NRB
ID: 17348117
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 22:44
|
2.13 Michael Young, SS, TEX
So, he just signed a five year extension; Michael Young is not the kind of player to coast. With a new manager and clubhouse philosphy in Texas, I expect at the very least numbers consistent with last year, if not a handful more RBI. 200 hits does a little something for me, too.
|
| 31 | Cobwebs
Sustainer
ID: 058358241
Wed, Mar 07, 2007, 23:14
|
2.14 Matt Holliday, OF, COL
Since neither Rollins or Tejada made it back to me, I had to take another direction. Thought long and hard about grabbing Derrek Lee, but in the end decided to pass. Ended up deciding between Holliday and Carlos Lee. Holliday got the nod because his better SLG and OBP. I’m hoping that his stats will improve even this year, though a move to the #5 spot in the batting order will decrease his runs total.
|
| 32 | MBT
ID: 46917216
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 08:03
|
2.15 Carlos Lee
What's not to like about Carlos Lee? Yahoo has him marked down as the 17th best player, so when you're picking in the 31st spot 17 is great value, right? I've even seen him go in the first round of a couple of "expert" drafts. 30+ HR, 100+ RBIs, 100+ Runs and 15-20 steal potential is hard to pass up, but of course it all depends on where Houston puts him in the hitting lineup. He was also the last of the top tier hitters in my ratings, so I was thrilled to see him at the 31st position (although I would have grabbed Holliday if he would have dropped).
|
| 33 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 09:54
|
2.16 Hanley Ramirez, SS, Fla
3.01 Roy Halladay, SP, Tor
Placebolder
|
| 34 | MBT
ID: 5425588
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 09:56
|
3.02 Derrek Lee, 1B, Cubs
I'm hoping that D. Lee bounces back from his wrist injury at full force. He's shown a good swing so far in spring training with a SLG% of .813 through 5 games. He's another guy who can produce 100+ Runs, 30+ HRs, 100+ RBIs and 10-15 steals and is very capable of an MVP year.
|
| 35 | Cobwebs
Sustainer
ID: 058358241
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 10:06
|
3.03 Gary Sheffield, OF, DET
A healthy Sheffield as a DH and eligible at 1B was on the top of my list of available players. With over 500 AB Sheffield is capable of getting 100+ in runs and RBIs with a nice 400 OBP. He is 38, so there’s a big risk involved, but he’s still one of my favourite players. Sheffield’s avg. draft position is around 70, so this is a long reach at pick #35. But since he was on the top of my list, and I like him, I couldn’t resist grabbing him. Wow, LOL, that last sentence could be misunderstood;-)
|
| 37 | C1-NRB
ID: 146591911
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 12:53
|
3.04 Justin Morneau 1B MIN
First Base is traditionally considered a power/ production position. I expect to get both SLG and RBI from Morneau this year without sacrificing too much in OBP. Being only 26 yrs old, I look for him to lower his K:BB ratio to move into the top 5 OPS for 1B this year. (He was sixth last year.)
|
| 38 | loki
ID: 146591911
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 12:53
|
3.05 Aramis Ramirez, 3B, CHC
I chose Ramirez because he met my need for help with RBIs and SLG as well as filling the 3B position.
|
| 39 | Weycool
ID: 146591911
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 12:54
|
3.06 Francisco Rodriguez, RP, LAA
Had 3 players in my Que with 4 picks in front of me.
One of them I wasn’t all that excited about and Morneau was taken two picks in front of me.
Franky was at the top of my list and Iwas thrilled to have him fall to me here.
With Mariano in decline, K-Rod is the top RP in the game right now in my opinion.
If Rodriguez was snapped up in front of me the plan was to try and trade down as there
were no other players I was excited about.
In my mind I have the top 3B, C and RP.
Very happy with my draft thus far.
|
| 40 | Smith32
ID: 146591911
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 12:55
|
3.07 Andruw Jones, OF, ATL
Some of the other guys I was considering (D. Lee, C. Lee, Morneau, A. Ramirez) were taken not too far in front of Jones, but I think he is comparable so I wasn't too upset. I thought it was too early for a P, so I went to the OF, especially since we start 4 of them.
I have Jones at 105 R, 130 RBI, .370 / .560.
Allhair said he wanted Jones at 3.08, so that validated my pick a little:)
|
| 41 | allhair allstars
ID: 146591911
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 12:55
|
3.08 Carlos Zambrano, SP, CHC
As a lifelong Cubs fan I’ve always played the intelligent game and avoided like the plague any and all Cubs pitchers. It’s just smarter that way. Anyway, you see how my draft is going by now… so I took Zambrano. The Cubs lineup is stronger with DLee back and Soriano in town, et. al., and although El Toro’s strange combination of a very satisfying strikeout rate and a much less satisfying walk rate might give me fits, the team’s offense should cover any of his increasing wildness. Of course, now that I’ve lifted my draft ban on Cubs pitchers, this is probably the year that Carlos joins the rest of his fellow rotation mates on their semi-annual trek to the offices of the good Dr. Andrews. Sweet Lou, do a fellow a favor and take care of my man, eh? I wanted Andruw Jones here.
|
| 42 | Andrew
ID: 146591911
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 12:56
|
3.09 Victor Martinez, C, CLE
He may not have have quite the upside of Mauer, but I could see a huge year out of this guy. Last year was a bit down from the year before, and I see him rebounding to put together a sick season. I think him and Mauer will greatly outperform the rest of the catchers, so this is continueing my strategy of position scarcity. Once again, this is someone I targeted for this round from the beggining, although I would have considered K-Rod and Morneau had they made it to me.
|
| 43 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 146591911
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 12:57
|
3.10 Joe Nathan, RP, MIN
After several years of missing the closer run, and getting stuck with third-tier guys, I bit the bullet and took a top one here. Nathan's numbers last year were amazing with a sub 2.0 era and sub 1.0 whip; he also had 94 k's vs 19 walks. If he's anything near that again I'll be happy.
|
| 44 | ksoze
ID: 146591911
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 12:58
|
3.11 Jake Peavy, SP, SDG
Don't stock up on pitching early in a draft, right? I had no intention of taking a second SP by the third round originally. I asked my wife to check in on the draft for me while at work; she called when I was up. "Who's it say to pick?" I asked. "Peavy? Really? Anyone else in the drop down menu?" She said "no." I thought "wow, everyone but Peavy was gone from my queue and I had just enough players to get, at minimum, one to me." And I was sure by this point that most of the top SP's would have gone. I told her not to pick because I'd be home long before I timed out and I wanted to think about this.
As it turns out, there was one other player left in my queue... Webb, the dropdown menu didn't show him. I put the SP's in solely as last resorts if all other hitters I valued at this point in the draft were gone.
So I looked over other available hitters. And I looked at Peavy, who will be 26 in May and who finished second in the NL in strikeouts, seventh in batting-average against and eighth in WHIP last season. Finally I concluded that, at this point in the draft, I must take the best player available, regardless of position or the fact that I already had a SP. I figure there's a great chance that Peavy will be much better then the 43rd best player this season.
|
| 45 | Toral
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 13:30
|
3.12 Rafael Furcal SS LAD
I've always snickered up my sleeve at managers who drafted Furcal high, and I've never owned him in any fantasy league, but then I wasn't so successful last year myself so I'm trying to look differently at things.
I've found it difficult to compete without a near-the-top player at one of the MI slots so I looked for one here. Furcal's 40 or so steals should keep me in a decent position in the SB category, if supplemented by contributions from a few others. He seems to have been able to handle Dodger Stadium and a .360+ OBP won't hurt here. I also considered Carlos Guillen, who helped my RIBC team a lot last year as a mid-round pick, and Bill Hall. I opted for the steals, although Hall is at what should be his prime.
P.S. Soon after the pick I decided I'd made a mistake. I should have drafted John Smoltz (4.01). But then I wouldn't have got either Guillen or Hall, so the pick may work out. Possibly.
|
| 46 | JeffG
ID: 146591911
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 13:41
|
3.13 BJ Ryan, RP, Tor.
This is a good group of drafters. No one fell for an early RP run like was seen in rd3 of many RIBC leagues last season. Actually, there has really been no real closer run in this draft. During the run last year, I was patient last year, avoided a reach pick on a closer, and focused on hitting rds 3 and 4. It payed off as I was second overall in the RIBC in total points in just the offensive cats. However, in Rd5 last year, I was last to draft a closer (18th one picked) and ended up picking up someone who became an all star but then a mega-bust. My team wallowed in the bottom of saves last season, but worse, I killed my team and my pitching numbers from July to September juggling the TB or KC closer of the week chasing saves and blowing waivers and killing my pitching averages to try to stay in the middle of the saves pack. My ERA and WHIP went from mid to high in the pack to bottom 3. Overall, I ended up being 1 slot away from a RIBC re-invite - direclty because of that closer fiasco (and my own lack of patience killing my ERA/WHIP trying to move up a few saves slots). Not this year. Picking at the bottom half in the draft I decided I would take a closer 3rd round, and was glad that there were alot to chose from. It was hard to let Mo go by, I mean the guy is my favorite bb player all time, and I practically wear Mariano Rivera pajamas to bed each night (sorry of that is too much info). I rated BJ Ryan a little higher than Mo (and Wags) because I feel like I'll get a few more Ks from BJ and he is less of a DL risk then either of the New York teams "sandman".
|
| 47 | Species
ID: 151172211
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 14:02
|
3.14 Brandon Webb, SP, ARI
This went against my overall strategy of waiting on SP's, but it fit into my general early round strategy of taking the best player available as opposed to going too heavily into positional scarcity. That being said, if Furcal had made it here I would have taken him.
Webb can be counted on for 210+ IP of solid 3.35 or better ERA and a whip in the low 1.20's. 175 k's isn't top of the league but respectable. His sinkerball-based arsenal (3.53:1 G/F ratio) limits the risk of his home park. He only turns 28 in May so if you're going to risk a high pick on a SP, let it be a young, durable NL-er so you can get the maximum benefit from his low ratios.
|
| 48 | darkside
Achiever
ID: 3590317
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 14:04
|
3.15 Mariano Rivera, RP, NYY
Weykool drew first closer blood with KRod at 3.06, so I knew if I wanted a top closer I’d need to take one with one of my picks. Since I was also targeting a 1B and JL had taken Teixeira, I figured I needed to grab one with my 3.15 pick. It was between Mariano and Wagner. Wagner would get more SO and I figure they’ll both have a similar number of save opps with each being on a top team, but I project Mariano to have better ratios. However, the clincher really was that this is a contract year for Rivera and I’m a believer in the motivation money provides.
|
| 49 | JL
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 19:41
|
3.16 J.J. Putz, RP, SEA
After passing on the top-tier closers in last year's RIBC and spending the entire season scrapping for saves, I decided to take a closer relatively early this year. I assumed that K-Rod, Nathan, or Ryan would be available at this point, but all three were chosen just before me, so I briefly questioned if I still wanted to take a closer since I wasn't particularly excited about any of the remaining closers. In the end, I decided that if I didn't take a reliable closer now, they would all gone by the time we got to my next pick. I ultimately decided on Putz because he had great strikeout numbers to go with excellent ERA/WHIP/Saves. Wagner is the more obvious pick here, but his injury concerns scare the hell out of me.
4.01 John Smoltz, SP, ATL
I really had a tough time with this pick. Smoltz was the last of the true "aces" in my opinion. If I passed on a SP at this point, I'd be stuck with a very average and/or unproven pitcher as my top starter. On the other hand, I know that the power hitters disappear quickly in these drafts. It's hard to pass on a player like Thome/Wells/Dunn, but Thome's an injury risk, Wells is no longer playing for a contract, and Dunn was down a bit last season. In the end, I just closed my eyes and picked a direction for this team.
|
| 52 | darkside
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 19:42
|
4.02 Jason Giambi, 1B, NYY
A common theme in my recent fantasy squads has been a lack of power. So, I decided I’d target a good SLG 1B with a pick, but it came down to it and only Giambi, Thome and Konerko were left. I don’t like Konerko, so that narrowed it down to Giambi and Thome. Since I was leaving a queue I needed another player and decided on Wells because he had the best power numbers left with the added bonus of speed. Since Thome has had some recent injury issues I ordered my queue Giambi, Wells, Thome. I thought it strange that 3 of my first 4 picks would be Yankees, but I think Giambi is primed to have his best season in NY. He’s finally healthy, his wrist shouldn’t bother him, he’ll spend most of his time at DH and he has a sick lineup around him—that’s a recipe for success. I don’t think it’s outrageous to project an OPS of 1.000, although that’s really the ceiling. Add 100 rbi’s and 80-90 runs and I’m happy to have him hold down 1B.
|
| 54 | Species
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 19:43
|
4.03 Paul Konerko, 1B, CWS
With the unexpected Webb pick in round 3 I felt I needed the best SLG I could find. As someone else commented elsewhere (may have even been another draft), SLG can be much harder to come by later in the draft.
I really waffled between Konerko and Vernon Wells. Having already drafted Abreu and being partailly pigeonholed with Hafner at Util, I felt I needed to take the most reliable SLG guy off the board.
I considered a closer (Wagner, Street) and would have considered Dunn if he was still 1b eligible. I didn't feel, even with position scarcity, that a MI fit here.....and held out some feint hope that one of a large handful would make it back to me. Surprise surprise-----no such luck.
|
| 55 | Jeffg
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 19:44
|
4.04 Vernon Wells, OF, Tor
Surprise surprise (to me), I did not think Wells would go this low. Have I over-valued him? (a fitting adjective for the guy the Jays are now paying $126M to now thru 2014). He had good numbers last season, which got him the big pay day, and who knows how he'll respond, but I certainly feel this is a low risk pick.
|
| 56 | Toral
ID: 52621719
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 20:16
|
4.05 Billy Wagner, RP, NYM
Last year in RIBC the closer run started just at the other end of the draft going away from me and by the time the draft had got back to me the top tier of closers was all gone so I passed. The same thing happened with the second tier of closers. And the third. I ended up going into the season with only one closer, one none too established. One of my stab-in-the-dark closers did eventually get a job, but while I congratulated myself on my self-discipline, the whole closer thing was no fun.
So now that I can grab a closer in the first tier, and can be fairly sure that nobody in the first tier will still be available when the draft comes to me, I will grab one. On a good team, Billy should rack up 40 saves; his K/9 rate last year was his best since 1999; he was better in the second half than the first. Despite his age, I prefer him to Saito or Street. He says he's developing a new pitch, a splitter, this year and I'm not sure how enthusiastic I am about that.
The three players I was interested in if I wasn't taking a closer -- Smoltz, Konerko, and Giambi -- went 4.01, 4.02, 4.03.
|
| 57 | ksoze
Leader
ID: 04619323
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 20:29
|
4.06 Jim Thome, DH, ChiSox
Very simply at this point I was looking for OBP to offset the main downside to my lone hitter thus far, and Thome's potential to knock 40 dingers gives him a shot at a 1.0 OPS. He may only be available for use at DH but, barring injury, he was far and away the best option for the categories I was seeking here. Based on his 1B eligibility Giambi was ahead of Thome in my queue but went a few picks prior.
|
| 58 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 811371220
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 21:34
|
4.07 Adam Dunn, OF, Cin
Was hoping Wells would continue to fall, but with him gone I figured I'd get my first outfielder. I debated some middle infielders but thought some would be available for my next pick. I've always liked Dunn - but then who doesn't like a player that regularly hits 500 foot shots; of course he strikes out or walks in half of his plate appearances so he can be a frustrating player to own. Maybe this is the year he gets laser eye surgery...
|
| 59 | Andrew
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 08, 2007, 22:52
|
4.08 Johnny Damon, OF, NYY
This was a hard pick for me. Nathan, Peavy, Ryan, Webb and Konerko were all near the top of my queue as the round started, and I slowly saw them all dissapear. I thought Juston Street would hall to my next pick, otherwise I would probably have picked him here. Once again, this is a player who helps me in multiple categories, which should help me build a team thats hopefully deep and balanced...we'll see.
|
| 60 | allhair allstars
ID: 24954318
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 11:02
|
4.09 Chone Figgins, 2B/3B/OF, LAA
Who knows what’s going on with Chone? Obviously the main things for me here are that he continues to steal bases and that he has that 2B eligibility which helps his value a touch in a non-keeper situation like this. At this point in my draft I still hadn’t taken care of any of scarce positions or categories. Here I try to wrap up a little of both.
I seriously considered taking Glaus here but reasoned that he, Hall, or Guillen would certainly be around the next time I would get a chance to push the “draft” button. Dumb. Just dumb.
In the back of my mind I’m thinking that if Baby Sarge does in fact get suspended or whatnot, the Halos maybe will have other things to worry about than Figgins’ OBP, and he can slink a little ways out of their doghouse. I’m not sure I’ll get quite that lucky, but I wanted to get a solid SB guy so I could relax a little and go for a bat or two and shore up that perceived area of need.
|
| 61 | Smith32
ID: 24954318
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 11:04
|
4.10 Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY
It should be noted that this was the first pick from the monster 150 player queue I left for Art to pick from while I was on vacation. I didn't have a ton of time to assemble the queue, so I knew there would be some errors, and if you err in overvaluing a player, naturally you get him.
In retrospect, I think Cano was a reach here. Had I been around to pick and seen the closer run starting so early, I think I would have taken Huston Street. And really I don't think Cano is significantly better than Roberts to warrant being drafted 2 rounds sooner. But Cano is young, he plays in a potent offensive lineup, and had a great 2nd half last year. So there is upside here. I look for 90 R, 75 RBI, .320 / .455 at a weak position.
|
| 62 | Weykool
ID: 24954318
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 11:05
|
4.11 Jermaine Dye, OF, CHW
Wasn’t real wild about anyone for this pick so I went with the best player available.
Thought about taking another RP with Street (who went the next pick) but decided to stick with a balanced
pick and took Dye.
Last year Dye had a career year in SLG.
Hoping he will give me 100+ Runs and 100+ RBI's.
|
| 63 | loki
ID: 24954318
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 11:07
|
4.12 Huston Street, RP, OAK
Because most RPs, except the ones in the top tier, have poor job security, I usually will wait until later rounds to pick a RP. However, Street is of high enough quality to qualify for choosing him this early.
|
| 64 | C1-NRB
ID: 24954318
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 11:22
|
4.13 Brian McCann, C, ATL
I had my sights set on Mauer in round 2 but he didn't quite make it back to me. Between the next two catchers on my board, I didn't think either of them was a third-rounder. After V-Mart went at 3.09 I started scrambling around for a fourth option and a place to slot him because I was certain we were looking at a "catcher run."
Lucky for me the closer "run", such as it was, created enough of a distraction that I was able to get a young catcher with power (.572) late in the fourth round.
|
| 65 | Cobwebs
ID: 146591911
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 13:12
|
4.14 Trevor Hoffman, RP, SD
The all-time record holder for saves is an old man but Hoffman hasn’t shown signs of slowing down. He had a great year getting 46 saves. His SO numbers aren’t that great but his other stats still makes him an elite closer. I would have preferred Street, but just missed him by a couple of picks.
|
| 66 | MBT
ID: 4423098
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 14:36
|
4.15 Troy Glaus, 3B, TOR
Based on my rankings Glaus was the 33rd best offensive producer in the league last season and when you're drafting in the 63rd spot that's pretty good value. He was the last of the 1st tier 3rd basemen and I'll take his 100 RBIs, 30 HR, 100 Run potential at the corner
|
| 67 | DaBomb
ID: 146591911
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 15:51
|
4.16 Bill Hall, SS, MIL
placeholder
5.01 Takashi Saito, RP, LAD
placeholder
|
| 68 | MBT
ID: 146591911
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 15:51
|
5.02 Hideki Matsui, OF, NYY
I know, I know. Why did I pick an injured Yankee OF? Because he can be an absolute monster (Godzilla if you will) when healthy. He's another guy who can put up 100 RBI's, 100 Runs and 30 HR in any given year. Before his injury last year he was projecting to have a career season and he seems to be playing well so far this spring training.
|
| 69 | Cobwebs
ID: 146591911
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 15:52
|
5.03 Ben Sheets, SP, MIL
There aren’t many pitchers better than Sheets when he’s healthy. The upside is so great, I just couldn’t resist picking him this early. His 2004 stats just make me drool, and if the young improved Brewers team just can win a few more games for him I’ll be ecstatic. But I’ll be just as miserable if he gets hurt again. For now I’m happy having Sheets on my team, we’ll see how long it will last, I’m praying for a full season.
|
| 70 | C1-NRB
ID: 146591911
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 15:52
|
5.04 Eric Gagne, RP, TEX
I had a rationale prepared, but it practically looked like Cobwebs' rationale above replacing "Sheets" with "Gagne."
Hope springs eternal in spring training... From all reports, Gagne is healthy and ready to return to form. I was afraid to let him slide any further, as closers were starting to get picked over. I still have *undrafted* on my board, so it will likely be a toss-up between oft-injured veteran and *undrafted-not-oft-injured* for my saves should something unfortunate occur.
|
| 71 | loki
ID: 146591911
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 15:53
|
5.05 Carlos Guillen, SS, DET
After Guillen with the exception of Troy Glaus, there was a steep drop off in the SS position. Guillen had a SLG ave. over .500 last year as well as 20 SBs making a good round 5 pick.
|
| 72 | Weykool
ID: 146591911
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 15:54
|
5.06 Carlos Delgado, 1B, NYM
Staying with my strategy of picking the best player available.
I still believe Delgado has some gas in the tank.
I expect him to have another solid year.
Projecting 900+ OPS, 90 Runs, and 100+ RBI.
Another solid pick to anchor my corner positions.
|
| 73 | Smith32
ID: 146591911
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 15:55
|
5.07 Nick Swisher, OF, OAK
Another pick from the monster queue, but I think Swisher is fairly valued here. Oakland is not a great place to hit, but I look for him to improve his numbers this year, and they were pretty good last year. Yahoo says he has added 20 lbs of muscle (gee, I wonder how...), so that may bolster my case for improvement. I also like his dual eligibility at 1B and OF, which will give me some lineup flexibility. 95 R, 90 RBI, .365 / .525.
|
| 74 | allhair allstars
ID: 146591911
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 15:56
|
5.08 Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
Who knows. I did a fair bit of agonizing over this pick, but really I was just transferring my stress over my team onto this pick. The shortstops I’d been hoping would be around weren’t, the closers I would have taken at this point were off the board, some nice 3B were out there but I already had Cabrera, and I felt that Lugo at this point would be too much of a stretch. I was floundering a bit here.
In the end I figured I should just have fun, and wouldn’t it be fun to have a manager’s eye view of Matsuzaka. The projections are fairly consistant across the board (although they're all somewhat less helpful in this case...), but with this guy's track history and array of pitches, he looks like a good situation to be a part of.
Or maybe I was swayed a bit as a result of Species’ constant “selling” of his G20 Japanese prospy last year… or maybe it was because Matsuzaka's performances in ST had instilled a little more of my confidence in his abilities. The possibility that he takes the world by storm is out there, although that’s not what I’m counting on. Solid win totals + good peripherals + healthy Ks = 1 happy allhair.
I will say that I hadn’t planned on taking two SP in the first 5 rounds. My traditional MO is to sit on pitchers and fudge around on decent arms later on, but it gets tiring farting around with substandard pitching all the time, and this helps resolve this issue a bit. Silver linings... my bizarre draft continues…
|
| 75 | Andrew
ID: 146591911
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 15:57
|
5.09 Chad Cordero, RP, WAS
After missing out on Huston Street I felt like their was really only one more reliable closer left. He is on a terrible team, but he'll put good numbers towards my ERA, WHIP and K's and I'm confident he'll do well in the opportunities he gets. Others on my list were Street, Swisher, Glaus, Kazmir and Zimmerman.
|
| 76 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 146591911
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 17:13
|
5.10 Brian Roberts, 2B, BAL
It seems like 2b has replaced ss as the weakest hitting slot. So I was happy to get Roberts who could potentially be one of the top two or three at at his position. He'll be a good source of stolen bases and maybe he'll go on a power tear like he did a couple of seasons back.
I almost chose Helton here, but figured with a couple of other solid 1B available I could hold off.
|
| 77 | ksoze
ID: 146591911
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 17:14
|
5.11 Todd Helton, 1B, COL
Delgado was the player I was shooting for with this pick but he went four picks sooner then mine. Helton won't win any homerun titles but he can still be an OBP monster, the last time he finished a season below .400 the world was afraid the great Y2K bug. He'll still score a bunch of runs in Colorado and, on the off chance he's actually traded to the Red Sox, maybe even more.
|
| 78 | Toral
ID: 146591911
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 17:15
|
5.12 JD Drew, OF, BOS
We've entered a new phase in the draft. By my reckoning we're now at the stage where a mass of indistiguishable players is available at all positions. For me, this makes it a good time to assume some risk, and select someone who stands out in talent, but has other problems that make him iffy.
J. D. Drew, you may have noticed, is injury-prone. His SB and CS totals suggest he can no longer run.
However I believe that Drew's move to Fenway Park, which has always been kind to leftie hitters of his type, will more than compensate for his age decline. I mark Drew down for a .410 OBP and .930 slugging, with lots of RBI if he bats in the 5-slot. When he plays, that is. I'll take that talent in preference to picking a more healthy player. To win a league you must take a few risks, and I am taking this one.
I also considered a yet undrafted player here, and cannot say any more about why I did not choose him.
|
| 79 | JeffG
ID: 146591911
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 17:16
|
5.13 Chipper Jones, OF, Atl
Heads=Chipper, Tails=Rolen. Well, not quite, but after Helton, Roberts, and Matzusaka all fell, I was sort of left Q-less, although was thinking about possibly landing one of these two guys for the rebound possibly next round. Anyway Chipper, if healthy, can still put up the slugging numbers and produce. He's missed close to 60 games each of the last 2 seasons, but he still pulled off nice run and RBI totals. There is not a projection I found that has him getting more than 450 at bats, but I'm hoping he at least gets that.
|
| 80 | Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 17:36
|
5.14 Scott Rolen, 3b, StL
I wanted so many people here, including Glaus, Hall, Guillen, Roberts and Helton, that after Helton was taken and I threw my soda against the wall, I started looking at 3b. Chipper topped my queue as his gaudy OPS and SLG would have fit very nicely here. I even emailed clv (huge Braves fan) to get his take on Chipper's outlook this year. Moot point!
Rolen was a solid second choice. Before he got hurt, Rolen put up a 1.000+ ops year in 2004. He doesn't turn 32 years old until this April, so it's not like he's over the hill. Reports so far this year state that his injured shoulder is a non-issue, and instead of spending Spring Training rehabbing from surgery he is working out to get ready for the season and not wear down like he did down the stretch last year. Most projections put him in the .890 OPS range, and I'm optimistic he will exceed those projections.
|
| 81 | darkside
ID: 181035120
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 17:52
|
5.15 Scott Kazmir, SP, Tam
I really wanted Chipper here, but JeffG did too. I thought about Rolen, then Species took him. That left me at a bit of a loss because there were no other hitters I was really enamored with. I hadn't yet taken a SP, so I thought now may be a good time. Of those left on the board, I thought Kazmir had the greatest upside, but there's obviously the concern of injury given he was shut down last season. I looked at others like Lacky, Bonderman, King Felix and Haren, but all things equal and everyone healthy, I liked Kazmir the best. One of the best SO pitchers in the league until he got hurt, I think he can get 200+ SO, mid-3's ERA, WHIP of 1.15 and 15 wins. He's only 23, so I'm hoping his youth combined with his being shut down last year has allowed him to get healthy enough to be dominant this season.
|
| 82 | JL
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 22:05
|
5.16 Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Was
After taking two pitchers with my 3rd and 4th round picks, my hitting was in need of some serious attention with my 5th and 6th picks. 3B has some depth, but it was running out quickly with guys like Rolen, Chipper, and Glaus flying off the board. I felt like a 3B had to be taken at this point, or I'd be stuck with a [UNDRAFTED] later on. This pick was a no-brainer for me. I had Zimmerman as the 6th best 3B in the draft. He's a young, highly-touted player that proved he could hit in the big leagues last season. I'm expecting big things from him this year.
|
| 83 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 09, 2007, 22:06
|
Rationales continue with rounds 6-10
|
| 84 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 21:57
|
rounds 11-15
|
| 85 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:17
|
rounds 16-20
|
| 86 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 21, 2007, 13:55
|
rounds 21-25
|
|
|
|
Post a reply to this message: (But first, how about checking out this sponsor?)
|
|