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Subject: RIBC AAA: PCL Draft Rationales Rounds 11-15
Posted by: JeffG
- Leader [01584348] Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 21:56
continuing for next five rounds
rounds 1-5
rounds 6-10 |
| 1 | DaBomb
Leader
ID: 01584348
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 22:00
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11.01 Morgan Ensberg, 3B, HOU
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| 2 | MBT
Leader
ID: 01584348
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 22:01
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11.02 Joel Zumaya, RP, DET
I had to face reality here, I was not going to get a second closer. So as a change of strategy I decided to go for the best set up guy with a shot at taking over the closer role. 97Ks in 83 innings makes for a nice ratio and his ERA and WHIP will help pull down Unit's numbers if they get inflated.
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| 3 | Cobwebs
Leader
ID: 01584348
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 22:01
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11.03 Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B/OF, BOS
Still can't decide on a pitcher, there are so many to chose from, and when nobody stands out I figured that I’d better go with a hitter and take the leftovers on the rebound. Needed a boost in runs, and Youkilis fit’s the bill, could score 110-120 runs batting in front of Ortiz and Manny, and if he stays away from nagging injuries, over .400 OBP is a probability, which is a big plus in this league.
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| 4 | C1-NRB
Leader
ID: 01584348
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 22:02
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11.04 Salomon Torres, RP, PIT
Even bad teams have closers that pick up saves. I didn’t want to be totally dependent on Eric Gagne. And if Torres is any good, he’ll get traded to a team where he can pick up even more.
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| 5 | loki
Leader
ID: 01584348
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 22:03
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11.05 Ray Durham, 2B, SFO
Durham had his best season since 2002 with Oakland, and his 26 HRs were the highest of his career . I needed a second baseman and he fit right in.
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| 6 | Weykool
Leader
ID: 01584348
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 22:04
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11.06 Scott Podsednik, OF, CWS
A bit of a worrisome pick here.
He has a groin injury and may not be ready to start the season.
Im hoping he can get healthy and get back to his 2005 form and be a terror on the base paths.
Only time will tell with this pick.
Could be a blunder or a "steal"….get it? (groans)
I know…..I apologize.
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| 7 | Smith32
Leader
ID: 01584348
Tue, Mar 13, 2007, 22:27
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11.07 Aubrey Huff, 3B/OF, BAL
This was a tough pick to make. I needed a 3B and considered taking Joe Crede here also. Ultimately I got them both. Huff's historical stats look suspicious - .372 SLG in 2001, .520 in 2002, and then a big drop in '05 and '06. Coming to the Walgreens of clubhouses (Baltimore) should help him regain that form. He is a total risk-reward pick, and being close to Baltimore I know that those picks rarely pan out in the Charm City (see Albert Belle, Sammy Sosa, etc.). But in round 11, I'll take the gamble. Hoping for around 80 / 90 / .345 / .470. I also liked his multi-position eligibility - combined with Swisher, I can really move guys around between the OF and CI, and should be able to accomodate some trades to make up for categories or positions that are weak because I made 7 picks from a 150 player queue.
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| 9 | allhair allstars
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 10:57
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11.08 Andy Pettitte, SP, NYY
Andy had an on and off again season last year, and I’m counting on him to be more of the former this year. Certainly he can put together incredible stretches, and being a little further off from his injuries can’t hurt. He’s no spring chicken, but with the Bomber offense behind him (and not the anemic ‘Stros) I fully expect his win totals to expand.
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| 10 | Andrew
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 10:58
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11.09 Brad Hawpe, OF, COL
Colorado stinks. I think Hawpe, Atkins and Helton are the only three legitimate major league hitters on the team. Holliday is a product of Coors field through and through(check the splits) With that said. I wouldn't be touching hawpe for 10 more rounds if he didn't play in Coors. He has trouble with lefties, but his overall numbers are good with an .898 OPS last year. If I sit him versus lefties I'll have a 5th round outfielder for about 130 games. If I don't get enough depth to justify that and just play him everyday then I still think a .900 OPS player with kinda bad counting stats is still a bargain in the 11th round. I almost took Connor Jackson here, but I thought he would make it to my next pick. I was wrong. My queue coming into the round was something like Hawpe, Chris Young(SD), Jackson, Hermida, Youkilis, Zumaya. They all went within a round of this pick, I hope I ended up with the right one.
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| 11 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 10:59
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11.10 A.J. Burnett, SP, TOR
I'd already decided coming up to this pick that I was going to take a starting pitcher, but still, once it got to my pick I went back and forth on several options until I decided on Burnett. I strongly considered Vazquez and Capuano, but I was a bit concerned with their inconsistency. Turned out these two got picked four picks after mine so I wasn't too far off base.
Of course, Burnett has his own concerns - his health is the big one. I checked out his stats to end last season and he was regularly going 6+ innings and most of these were solid starts. He may be more of a risk than the other two, but there's more potential for reward to go along with that risk. (and if you can't take a risk in the 11th round when can you?)
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| 12 | ksoze
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 11:02
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11.11 Brian Giles OF
It is undeniably Yokel's fault I had to take Brian Giles here. I wanted one player and one player only here: A.J. Burnett. I had, however, looked over Yokel's lineup and determined that he might be looking at a SP here also; Burnett seemed like the most obvious choice to me at this point in the draft. In fact, I didn't see another SP available who I felt was a necessary pick here if Burnett were gone.
So, Brian Giles it was. He and Kearns were the next two in my queue, ironically Toral took him next. I went with Giles mainly because he's great for OBP, his career low is .373 and as recently as 2005 it was .423. Though his power has declined he's certainly still capable of a .900 OPS with 10 SB's and 80-ish each in RBI and runs.
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| 13 | Toral
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 11:03
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11.12 Austin Kearns, OF, WAS
With this pick I entered upon a time of sudden personal busyness such that I timed out once, the quality of research and the picks declines, and contemporaneous rationales are not produced.
I like Kearns very much this year. He put up a .366/.467 line last year, and he is only 26, so he still has the possibility to improve, he still has the possibility of becoming a durable player. He is batting cleanup until Nick Johnson returns, and when Johnson does return he will benefit from having Johnson's impressive OBP in front of him.
Two problems with him: RFK will depress his totals. More importantly, this was probably too early to go fishing for an OF. Last year I operated on the assumption that there was no hurry to pick OFs, there is always value of some sort, part-time players, sleepers, available late, and the inclusion of CI and MI positions in RIBC lessens the need to pick OFs.
Kearns was picked at 14.13 in RIBC at 11.03 in the other AAA. Probably RIBC is right and this was a bit of a reach.
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| 14 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 11:04
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11.13 Todd Jones, RP, Det.
His set up man, fireballer Joel Zumaya was taken several picks ago, but the job is still this 39 year old's and Jim Leyland usually knows what he is doing and probably keeps Jones as his closer because of his better control. Jones was solid down the last two months of the pennant stretch last season, hi-lighted with Jones throwing 7 scoreless post season innings last year (Or so I am told, I may have mentally blocked last year's post season out). For fantasy players, Jones low walk total keeps his WHIP down. He should pick up 20 or so saves, more if he can stay healthy, before passing the torch (hopefully not until 2008).
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| 15 | Species
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 11:05
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11.14 Javier Vazquez, SP, CHW
I knew I was taking at least 1 starter this go around. While Vazquez has his warts, he has some certain strengths and that's what I relied upon to make this pick. He's very durable, making 32+ starts for 5 straight years. While he's coughed up a high ERA in his AL years (mainly due to HR's) he has maintained WHIP ratios of around 1.25. He also posts solid strikeout numbers, which made this pick for me. I also expect the White Sox to contend so hopefully he'll luck his way into 14 wins.
In typical spring time hyperbolous talk - akin to "I'm in the best shape of my life" kind of crap - it's been said that Vazquez is much happier this Spring being with the same team again for the first time in 3 years, and that he's enjoying some progress with his pitching coach, who hopes to get more consistent movement on his pitches to hopefully avoid giving up so many gopher balls. Let's hope he's right.
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| 16 | darkside
Achiever
ID: 3590317
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 11:11
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11.15 Chris Capuano, SP, Mil
I had Capuano in my sights when I took Bush, so I was happy that he made it back to me. He had a great first half last year, even making the all star team, but faded quite a bit in the second half. Each of the last 2 years he’s thrown 220 innings and had 175 K’s with an ERA of 4.00 and WHIP around 1.3. He showed WHIP improvement last year, thanks to halving his walks, so I think a WHIP of 1.25 and an ERA hovering around 4.00 are reasonable expectations. With the Brew Crew legitimate contenders in the NL this year, I think 15 wins is very plausible. I also liked the fact that he’s only 28, so I expect no decline and perhaps even a small improvement over the last few years.
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| 17 | JL
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 14:10
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11.16 Marcus Giles, 2B, SDG
I wish I could say that this pick was all part of some grand scheme, but it's not. I just needed a 2B and I went with what I thought was the best available. I considered Giles, Brandon Phillips, and Luis Castillo. All three players are very similar in their production, but Giles has the best overall numbers and doesn't kill you in any one category. I'm a little worried about a drop in production with the move to Petco, but every player at this point has their disadvantages.
12.01 Willy Taveras, OF, COL
At this point, I still only had 2 of the 4 OF needed. The number of useful outfielders was quickly dwindling and I was falling behind in stolen bases, so I felt obligated to take Tavares with this pick. He stole 41 bases last year and scored over 80 runs with a decent OBP. The knock on Tavares is his awful Slg%, but this could improve with his move to Coors Field.
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| 19 | darkside
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 14:11
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12.02 Russell Martin, C, LAD
This may have been a reach, time will tell. When I took Martin, only 5 other catchers had been taken. There were 4 remaining, including Martin, that I could live with having on my squad. Being at the end of the draft, I was really concerned that all 4 of them may be taken by the time it got back to me (Johjima was taken 5 picks later), so I decided to take him when I could. At only 24 he still has a lot of upside, which says a lot. His last full year in the minors he was sporting an OBP of .431 and although in 415 AB last year with LA he only got on base at a .355 clip, there’s no reason to think it will stay that low. I don’t know exactly what to expect, but am hopeful for an OPS in the range of .820-.830. I’ve read he’ll hit a bit further up in the lineup this year (possibly 6th), so that bodes well for his counting stats and given that he managed 10 SB last year, I don’t think it’s outrageous to assume 12-15 SB for an entire season.
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| 20 | Species
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 14:12
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12.03 Freddy Garcia, SP, PHI
I hate my 2nd pick most of the time. Each time I'm wrestling with making the safe pick and praying that some of my sleepers make it back 26 picks later (a very rare occurrence) or "reaching" a little early to make sure I get the guy I want. I went safe and am regretting it after what started later in the round.
It's not like Garcia is bad. His strikeout rate isn't like it used to be but it's acceptable. I feel Garcia will be invigorated going to the NL for a new challenge and the Phillies have a strong team that could contend, so I feel he will be motivated. I believe he's also pitching for a new contract so that helps. I feel his move to the NL will be beneficial to his stats. Since New Comiskey is about equally homer-friendly as Philly's launching pad, I'm hopeful the change in scenery will help. I'm looking for 14 wins, 3.85-ish ERA and a whip in the high 1.20's.
I debated whether or not to take a setup man with this pick. Judging by the floodgates that have opened since, I'm kicking myself for going 'safe' here.
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| 22 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 14:13
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12.04 Connor Jackson, 1B, Ari
I was planning on taking an SP here (Olson or Escobar), but since middle round SP are so hit-or-miss, I started checking the other postions for which I had queues, making sure I'm not letting a 'best available' get away. There were a lot of CI players going the last few rounds, oddly more are 3B while possible break-out player 1B Connor Jackson gets passed by. This guy was built for the RIBC format with his potential SLG and OBP numbers and lack of HR's in regards to most 1B, so I have him ranked higher in my CI food-chain for RIBC than the traditional 5x5 rankings had him slotted. In his first full season in the majors, Co-Jack's OPS numbers rose month by month. A repeat of his 2006 numbers in 140 games would make him worth a 12 round pick to me (75 R, 79 RBI, .368 OBP, .441 SLG) , but I'm hoping for much higher across the board.
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| 23 | Toral
ID: 811371220
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 20:50
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12.05 Jeremy Hermida, OF, Fla
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| 24 | ksoze
ID: 811371220
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 20:51
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12.06 Kelvim Escobar, SP, LAA
After my second and third round picks of SP's I hadn't picked another yet and felt it was time. Escobar was my highest rated SP still available so I didn't think too hard. Of course he's had injury issues in the past, maybe this is the season he doesn't. He's good for an ERA in the mid-3's and a WHIP in the 1.2's. If he approaches 200 IP in a season he should have 150 - 165K's and 15 wins. The optimal word, though, is "if." Escobar's upside makes this a gamble I'm willing to take.
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| 25 | Slackjawed Yokel
ID: 811371220
Wed, Mar 14, 2007, 20:57
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12.07 Kenji Johjima, C, Sea
I still wanted another 1B, but thought the three I was looking at could all make it back to me in the next round. It turns out only Nomar was taken off of the board in the interim. (and of course after I decided he was the one I wanted)
But, I figured I'd take this opportunity where no one was really standing out at pitcher, OF, or 1B, to solidify my catching slot. I've seen Johjima rated as one of the top 3 backstops, and here was a chance to get him fairly late. He had pretty solid OPS last year (.783) for a catcher and I only expect an improvement in his second year in MLB.
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| 26 | Andrew
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:19
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12.08 Chuck James SP ATL
This Kid tore up the minors and then he pitched phenomonly last year in the majors for a rookie. If he can keep his homeruns in check, I can see this as a huge year for him. If not, I think worst case scenario is good k's, 10-12 wins a low 4 ERA and a decent WHIP. I could see him coming out and being the braves best pitcher though, and thats what I'm hoping for.
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| 27 | allhair allstars
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:20
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12.09 Orlando Cabrera, SS, LAA
Holy cow, how exactly did I end up with so many holes to fill? At this point I shopped for a solid SS who could help out with SBs… Cabrera fit the bill. I wanted to go in a different direction but my unease regarding the SS position drew my hand... By this time it's occuring to me that I'm drafting defensively and I'm not happy about it. Trying to reverse this momentum... despite my best efforts, external time constraints and responsibilities have severely cut into my research time (wah wah...) and it exhibits in part in my inability to produce rationales in a timely (or coherent) manner.
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| 28 | Smith32
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:20
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12.10 Corey Patterson, OF, BAL
Part of the problem with drafting 7 picks from 1 big queue is that your list can't adjust to fill needs. As a result, I don't think I had more than 10 total steals on my roster before I made this pick, and I decided that Patterson was the best available option for SBs. Plus with Swisher and Huff eligible at CI, I wanted to build some depth at OF. Patterson is 27, which some consider to be a magical age, and he has some power to go with his speed (remember the Baltimore clubhouse effect...). His OBP is a liability, but everyone has warts in Rd 12 of a 16 team draft. Looking back, I wish I had taken Arroyo with this pick.
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| 29 | Weykool
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:21
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12.11 Brandon Phillips, 2B, CIN
Brandon Phillips in the 12th round?
Are you kidding me?
"I'll buy that for a dollar". (free beer to anyone who can tell what movie that was from…without googleing it)
In the other RIBC he went anywhere from round 8-12 with 10 being the average.
Just couldn’t afford to pass him up at this point in the draft.
He has had a very good spring and he should be getting SS eligible within the first two weeks.
His average was a little low last year but he produced well in the other 4 Cats for a MI.
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| 30 | loki
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:22
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12.12 Bronson Arroyo, SP, CINN
I planned on taking a pitcher with my next 2 picks unless there was a good hitter available. Arroyo was my highest ranked pitcher at this time.
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| 31 | C1-NRB
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:22
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12.13 Scott Olsen, SP, FLA
As mentioned in the discussion thread, I had a great piece put together here for Bronson Arroyo. I offered it to loki since he stole him right out from under me, but he didn’t take me up on my offer so it’s been deleted. *sigh*
I had to scramble around because I had my heart set on a SP this round. Scott Olsen jumped off the page as a pretty good option here. Olsen’s WHIP is a little better than Arroyo’s but he doesn’t have the same strikeout projections. I’m primarily looking for W’s from SP at this point in the draft anyway, a point I detailed in the Arroyo rationale you’ll never get to see. :P
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| 32 | Cobwebs
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:23
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12.14 Jonathan Broxton, RP, LAD
With only one closer on my team, and the ones available not very reliable, I decided to target a closer in waiting instead. Broxton is the future closer in LA, so if Saito struggles he should be the man, and his K/9 was 11.4 last year, so over 100 Ks is expected. Of course MBT grabbed Shields the pick after, who was #2 on my list;-)
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| 33 | MBT
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:23
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12.15 Scot Shields, RP, LAA
Like I said before I've decided to stock up on MR because the closers are all gone. Talk about dependable, Shields is the best MR in the game and he always picks up about 8 wins every season and should be good for 3-5 saves. His K rate is excellent and he's rarely injured.
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| 34 | DaBomb
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:24
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12.16 John Patterson, SP, WAS
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13.01 Armando Benitez, RP, SFO
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| 35 | MBT
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:26
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13.02 Justin Duchscherer, RP, OAK
The last of my MR aces. Last season his innings were down because he had to take over the closer role in Oakland. He did a great job picking up 9 saves along the way. Another great K rate with 51 Ks in 53 innings last year. I may have reached quite a bit on these three MR, but I really need some guys who could pick up the occasional save and keep my ERA and WHIP down.
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| 36 | Cobwebs
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:26
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13.03 Akinori Otsuka, RP, TEX
I wanted another closer in waiting to increase the odds of getting saves. Wainwright, Otsuka, and Wheeler stood out. Who has the best chance of taking over as closer? With Wainwright I’d also get a starter who can get some wins on a good team, and some decent stats in the process. Wainwright was my first choice until I changed my mind in the last minute. Another decision that may come back to haunt me. I just got the feeling that if Izzy is pain free, he’ll probably pitch better than last year and keep his job all season, leaving Wainwright with zero saves since he‘s a starter now. Otsuka and Wheeler on the other hand will get some save chances even if they won’t take over as closer. And since Gagne has a history of getting injured, Otsuka got the nod.
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| 37 | C1-NRB
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:27
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13.04 Cla Meredith, RP, SDG
I had two WHIP-lowering sleepers pegged on my draft board. Akinori Otsuka was one, Cla Meredith is the other. I was sure hoping they would slip and I could take them back-to-back in the mid 20 rounds. I was even going to float the idea of trading into a better position to do so. Now I’m glad I didn’t.
When Cobwebs plucked Otsuka off my board I decided I couldn’t take the chance that Meredith might be snagged as well seeing as how Broxton, Duchscherer, and Shields were also taken in the last seven picks. Were we in the midst of a rare middle reliever run? Was I on the back end of it? If so, I got my guy; albeit about 10 rounds earlier than I expected to.
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| 38 | loki
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:27
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13.05 Daniel Cabrera, SP, BALT
This pick is a Yogi Berra "deja vu all over again" moment. I picked Cabrera with 13.07 in PCL AAA 2006 because he was under the tutelage of Leo Mazzone. Cabrera has the potential to be a dominant pitcher and have a K:IP ratio of >1. This is his 2nd season, and if Mazzone can get his BBs down, he could have a great season.
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| 39 | Weykool
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:28
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13.06 Nomar Garciaparra, 1B, LAD
Expecting Nomar to continue his comeback player of the year ways.
There is a very good chance that he will be eligible at 3B at some point in the season.
This certainly qualifies as a steal at this point in the draft as he went anywhere from RD 8-13 with 11 as the average.
Hoping Nomar can give me .300, 20-30 HR, 75-80 RBI, and 75-80 Runs.
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| 40 | Smith32
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:29
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13.07 Joe Crede, 3B, CWS
I strongly considered taking Crede at 11.07 instead of Huff, and then I got him here anyhow. Again, this fits into my position flexibility strategy by allowing me to move Huff or Swisher to the OF. Crede seemed to have a semi-breakout year last year, and I think his progress could continue this year. He seemed like a bit of a bargain here - some sites have his ADP around 130 (this was around the 200th pick), and ESPN has him #12 among 3B projecting a repeat of his 06 numbers. 75 R, 95 RBI, .320 / .490.
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| 41 | allhair allstars
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:30
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13.08 Ryan Dempster, RP, CHC
Hoo Hoo! Yes! Between Izzy and Dempster I have probably the scariest closer tandem on the table. All the news out of Chicago is that Dempster has the job as long as he can keep it. Despite his foibles, he’s had a ton of success in Wrigley over the years, he’s getting a ton of money, and I think Pinella’s prepared to throw him out there for a while. Basically I was thinking I’d squeeze as much out of Dempster as I could and hope that Isringhausen stays healthy. Otherwise I have a perfect category to unintentionally punt…
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| 42 | Andrew
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:30
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13.09 Derek Lowe, SP, LAD
Weaver, James and Hill were all upside picks, so I wanted to get someone solid to stabilize my rotation a bit. I did not want a pitcher here. I thought the 13th round was way too early to have 5 pitchers, but Lowe just seemed like he should have gone so much sooner, so I felt I had to grab him. He is streaky and volatile, but he pitches in Dodger stadium and they have a good lineup to support him. I see 15 wins or more from Lowe this year, and an ERA in the 3s should be expected. His WHIP and K's aren't spectacular, but he is going to bring me some stats the young kids won't gaurantee me.
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| 43 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:31
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13.10 Mike Jacobs, 1B, FLA
Well, this was around the time that I realized how stupid my pick of Nick Johnson was a couple of rounds back. With him on the shelf for what appears to be an extended period of time, I needed a first-string first baseman (if that's possible at this stage of the draft). As my pick neared I decided on Nomar and made a one-man queue with him in it. Of course, he was snagged four picks before mine. I then narrowed it down to Jacobs or Shealy - I even thought I might get both if Shealy made it to me on the turn.
I did decide on Jacobs first though as he has a solid year under his belt and should continue to improve.
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| 44 | ksoze
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:31
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13.11, Dan Wheeler, RP, Hous
I was hoping Daniel Cabrera would slip back to me here. When he didn't, I took a look at all the setup RP's that had gone between 12.14 and 13.04 and decided to take a shot at one here. With Lidge's history the last season or two, Wheeler's a good bet to pick up some saves. He'll also help my ERA and WHIP and toss nearly a K an inning.
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| 45 | Toral
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:32
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13.12 Brad Penny, SP, LAD
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| 46 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:34
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13.13 Ervin Santana SP, LAA.
Un-lucky number pick 13.13. Considered a catcher, but passed. Lots of MR flying off the board, but I'll go with a starter. Many SP to weed through. Santana was a big beneficiary of run support last season which led to a 16-8 record. That many wins again would be a little ambitious, but he should get 12 or so. Projections say his ERA will be around 4.00 and a sub 1.30 WHIP. I'm going with a durable young pitcher trending upwards.
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| 47 | Species
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:35
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13.14 Michael Barrett, C, CHC
As noted in my Garcia rationale, I did not appreciate the start of the top tier setup men being drafted after my 12th round pick. While missing out on those guys was just annoying, missing out on Dan Wheeler was painful. With Lidge on my team I was undoubtedly looking to handcuff, but missed the chance.
I did not plan on taking a catcher here with this pick, but as it approached and I looked at the draft board I felt that Barrett was an excellent fit as he posts respectable ratios for a catcher and some nice counting stats. He missed some games last year but still put up solid counting stats. The Cubs lineup is stacked so hopefully he can clean up some of Aramis or Lee's sloppy seconds.
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| 48 | darkside
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:36
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13.15 Carlos Quentin, OF, ARI
I felt like I needed to get some power with this pick, so that eliminated trying to fill my MI needs and as I’ve been targeting Shealy for several rounds but know that JL already has two 1B, I figured I should take Quentin here. In his only full years in the minors, 2004 and 2005, he ended with an OPS of .976 and .942, respectively. Granted, I don’t think he’ll match the OBP of .443 and .422 he put up those years, but he should get on base and slug enough to give me an OPS of close to .870. In only 166 AB last year he got on base at a .342 rate and slugged .530. Being only 24 and with some time in the show behind him, my expectation of .870 OPS and 80-90 runs/rbis is justified. He may even throw in a few SB, so that’ll just be gravy.
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| 49 | JL
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:37
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13.16 Jeff Francoeur, OF, ATL
I was very happy to see Francouer here in the 13th round. Sure his OBP is unbelievably bad, but he's a 23-year old former top pick of the Braves that managed to knock in 103 runs last season, with 83 runs and 29 homeruns. Given the other options in the OF at this point (Byrnes, Duncan, etc.), Francouer was an easy pick as a 4th OF with great potential.
14.01, Kevin Millwood, SP, TEX
This pick basically came down to choosing between a proven but mediocre pitching (Millwood), or a young unproven pitching with potential (Wainwright). In retrospect, I probably should've taken Wainwright, since he has the potential to become much more than a 14th rounder. With Millwood, I'm probably going to get 200+ IP with a 4.50 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. If he can get 14-15 wins with those numbers, I'll be satisfied.
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| 50 | darkside
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:38
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14.02 Ryan Shealy, 1B, KAN
As with the Quentin pick, I felt I needed to add some power to my lineup. We’ve been hearing about Shealy for a long time, but his name was routinely followed by the words ‘blocked’ and ‘Helton’. Now that he’s out of Colorado and starting for KC, he may actually live up to the hype touting him as a slugging first baseman. The most playing time he got at Colorado came in 2005 when he managed to get in 91 AB’s. Granted, it’s an incredibly small sample, but he did manage an OPS of .886 during that stint (that coming on the heels of full seasons in AA and AAA where ended with an OPS of .980 and .986, respectively). His numbers weren’t nearly as stellar in limited time last year with Kansas (OPS of .789), but at 27 with a better team around him and a secure job, he could do quite well. I think an OPS of .900 is asking too much, but it’s not impossible. He should be able to add to that about 75 runs/rbis making him a solid option at my CI spot.
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| 51 | Species
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:39
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14.03 Anibal Sanchez, SP, FLA
I just kind of stumbled into this pick and while Sanchez' value at this pick is just fine, it probably didn't fit my team the best for reasons I'll go into later.
As I was surfing around in between picks there was a rotowire blurb of Sanchez' last spring game and how well he has thrown so far. This prompted me to look at his projections and upon looking them over felt he would be a nice upside pick compared to most of my picks so far which have tended to be on the safer, more reliable side.
Sanchez will hopefully be fortunate to get 12-13 wins with acceptable ratios. I look for some growth from him this year and a 4.00-ish ERA and sub 1.35 whip.
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| 52 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:40
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14.04 Chris Burke 2B/OF Hou
An outfielder with 2B eligibility who will be batting second, ahead a couple of good RBI guys on the Stros. He's dealing with a little position battle speculation, but Phil Garner is trying to douse that rumor. Not a real SLG/OBP guy, but what 14th round MI is. Potential for a decent runs total, and just under a couple of dozen steals.
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| 53 | Toral
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:40
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14.05 Luis Castillo, 2B, MIN
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| 54 | ksoze
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:41
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14.06 Ramon Hernandez, C, Balt
14th round, time for a catcher, the last open hole on my team. The only two on my list to draft at this point were Hernandez and IRod. Their OBP, RBI and Run production project to be similar, Hernandez should hit for a little more power and IRod should steal a few more bases. I'm not real worried about the difference in stolen bases between a couple of catchers and Hernandez has the advantage of being 5 years younger. IRod, at 35 is getting old for a catcher, I think Hernandez is the safer bet to be the more productive of the two.
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| 55 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:42
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14.07 Boof Bonser, SP, MIN
I wanted to get another SP - I had my eyes on some relievers, but thought it was too early still and middle relievers kind of burned me last year. Looking through various rankings, this Bonser character kept rising to the top. I've got to admit I didn't know much about him - he's definitely been overshadowed by the big names on the Twins' staff. He has done very well this spring and has had high K's per inning through the minors and into the big leagues last year.
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| 56 | Andrew
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:42
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14.08 Mike Gonzalez, RP, ATL
I might have taken him a round earlier if I didn't take Lowe. He has absolutely filthy stuff. He has a closers mentality, and with Wickman getting the saves now, he could be one soon. Worst case scenario I see just dominate rate stats and enough k's and maybe some wins to seriously help my cause. I was looking at Dave Robers, Scott Linebrink and Anthony Reyes here. I also considered Carlos Quentin, Anibal Sanchez and David Dejesus, but decided it way way too soon for any of those guys, so I'm glad Gonzalez fell to me.
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| 57 | allhair allstars
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:43
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14.09 Ivan Rodriguez, C, DET
Was increasingly nervous about having Sexson as my primary first baseman, especially with the disastrous start he had to the last season. Since he's eligible at both C and 1B, I figure IRod a solid choice to help back up both spots. He should be able to squeeze out one more year of production consistent with what he's done the last couple years, and any stolen bases he can throw my way will be gravy on the cake...
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| 58 | Smith32
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:44
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14.10 Adam Wainwright SP STL
This is my first real speculative pick, as the rest of my team so far is comprised of established players. Wainwright has been pitching well this spring and appears to have sewn up a spot in the STL rotation. He also has the potential to become the STL closer if Izzy gets hurt, which probably should be reworded to "when Izzy gets hurt". Also should be a good source of Ks.
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| 59 | Weykool
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:44
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14.11 Eric Byrnes, OF, ARI
Another player I was excited to get this late in the draft. Another "steal" for team Weykool.
Last year Byrnes was a 25-25 guy and I expect hime to get close to that this year as well as improve on the average.
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| 60 | loki
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:45
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14.12 Paul Lo Duca, C, NYM
The remaining top catchers were all taken in rounds 13 and 14 before me, and after LoDuca I felt there was a significant drop off. I waited 1 round too many before picking a catcher, but LoDuca should generate decent stats in the Met's lineup.
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| 61 | C1-NRB
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:45
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14.13 Orlando Hudson, 2B, ARI
Hudson had a bit of a breakout year last year; I just hope it wasn’t a career year. He hits near the top of ARI’s lineup and got on base a .354 clip last year, 13 points better than his previous career high. He also out slugged his previous career high by 16 points. I hope it was a park effect (B-O-B vs. Skydome) rather than an artificial one.
Hudson will likely be my everyday 2B with Freel filling in lineup gaps due to his multi-position eligibility.
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| 62 | Cobwebs
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:46
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14.14 Anthony Reyes, SP, STL
Right after I did my last pick, I regretted it. Instead of picking Otsuka I should have gone with a SP. Watching all my targeted SPs just vanish was frustrating. As my 3rd SP I wanted a reliable source of innings with decent stats, since Sheets and Harden have a history of getting hurt. Almost thought that I would get Wainwright but he got taken 4 picks earlier. I ended up picking Reyes, another high risk high reward pitcher, that I probably picked a little too early. Reyes has shown that he has good stuff and doesn’t belong in the minors. He’s a #2 starter on a good team, and hopefully he has matured and is ready to have a breakout season. Reyes is a power pitcher with good command, but his durability could be a problem. He’s been lights out this spring, now if he only can carry it over to the regular season…..
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| 63 | MBT
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:47
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14.15 Chris Duncan, OF, STL
Duncan had an amazing season once he was brought up from the minors last season. He didn't start getting full time play until mid June and still had 60 Runs and 22 HRs. Now that he's a full time starter he could top 100 runs and 30 HRs with an OBP of .360+
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| 64 | DaBomb
Leader
ID: 01584348
Thu, Mar 15, 2007, 21:47
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14.16 David Weathers, RP, CIN
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15.01 Ty Wigginton, 1B, TB
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| 65 | MBT
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 07:57
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15.02 Chris Duffy OF PIT
My second Chris. I'm not sure what I got here other than a SB guy. His stats remind me of a younger version of Dave Roberts. Whether or not that's a good thing is yet to be seen, but I'm hoping for good things out of him this year.
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| 66 | Cobwebs
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 07:58
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15.03 Khalil Greene, SS, SDG
I had a big gaping hole at SS that was annoying me, and I didn’t have the patience to wait any longer to fill it, especially when the options are few. This is a contract year for Greene with a bonus if he exceeds 550 plate appearances, hopefully that will motivate him. He’s got the power and speed to be a 20-20 player, but the main issue is if he can stay healthy. But I like his potential for having a breakout season.
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| 67 | C1-NRB
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 07:59
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15.04 Reed Johnson, OF, TOR
Toronto has been overloaded with hitters the last few years and Reed Johnson’s PA have suffered because of it. It appears as though he’ll field his position all by himself this year since the *undrafted* player he platooned with has departed.
Johnson’s another guy who increased his OBP and SLG to career highs last year. Adding 25% (one more game per week all season) to his average run production stats of the past three seasons, I project him at 87 Runs and 70 RBI. I realize that’s significantly higher than most expert projections, but I’m an optimist.
Besides, Johnson owes me. I had him last year and suffered through all his bench time.
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| 68 | loki
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 16:33
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15.05 Andre Ethier, OF, LAD
Ethier was having a terrific rookie season until he slumped in September. I think that he will build off of 2006 and will now be accustomed to a 162 game major season.
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| 69 | Weykool
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 16:33
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15.06 Chien-Ming Wang, SP, NYY
A decent pick at this point in the draft.
I was looking for somone to give me some wins and he should do that with the strong hitting Yankees to back him up.
His K/9 is very weak and his Whip could be better.
But somehow I always stuggle with wins so he seemed like a logical answer for this stage of the draft.
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| 70 | Smith32
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 16:34
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15.07 Joel Pineiro, RP, BOS
This pick was a bit of laziness as I had put Wainwright and Pineiro in my queue for rd 14 but didn't post that it was for rd 14 only. But it appears he is a good candidate for the Boston closer role and should pick up some saves at some point. Between Wainwright and Pineiro, they might equal the production of a 2nd closer with regard to saves. I read that Pineiro's contract has incentives tied to games finished, which should give him a few green reasons to work hard to be the closer. Plus Boston should win a lot of games, so the opportunities should be there for somebody. But whether Theo goes out and acquires that someone instead is another question.
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| 71 | allhair allstars
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 16:35
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15.08 Tom Glavine, SP, NYM
We'll see if last year was a mirage or not... I needed to pick up a couple more SPs and Glavine waved in my general direction. He needs 10 wins to hit 300, so I figure he's motivated to tighten down the screws a bit to make sure he gets there... With the support of the Mets lineup I figure he's in good shape to get his 10 and then some, but he could also fall off the cliff at any point... If figure this to be a safe pick of the risky variety
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| 72 | Andrew
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 16:35
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15.09 Bobby Crosby, SS, OAK
I think many people were predicting he would be the 2006 MVP. One year later, if healthy I can see him being the 2007 MVP. But really, I don't have any hopes like that for him. I just hope he is healthy enough to be an above average MI. Things are looking good now, but who knows.
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| 73 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 16:36
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15.10 Omar Vizquel, SS, SFO
It's hard to get too excited about any of the shortstops available at this point. But, I still hadn't gotten one and I didn't want to wait till all teams had one or two. All of guys with any power were long gone - but at least Vizquel offered some stolen base potential. He had 24 the last 2 years (this for a 38/39 year old), so at least he should get me some SB's.
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| 74 | ksoze
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 16:37
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15.11 Brad Wilkerson, OF, TEX
I was looking to start filling up the bench here and Wilkerson looked, if he can get back to his .840 - .872 OPS of 2002 - 2004, like a great pick with potential. '06 was a bust due mostly to the shoulder injury that is hopefully now fully healed. If so, there's no reason to think that taking a chance on him here is a waste of a pick. If a healthy Wilkerson means an OPS of over .800 with anything close to the runs and RBI's he's put up in the past (combined he had 179 in 2004), I'll be ecstatic.
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| 75 | Toral
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 17:36
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15.12 John Maine, SP, NYM
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| 76 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 17:38
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15.13 Corey Hart, OF, Mil
Corey should see most of the Brewer playing time in RF with some others getting some occasional RF PT. This pick could be a risk because the Brewers are juggling 6 outfielders (5 rightly so are currently undrafted until I picked Hart) and two that are expected to platoon LF both hate the idea of platooning and could see time in RF from time to time. Brewer CF Bill Hall was drafted 4.4 as a SS because he has eligibility, but is in the OF mix in CF but also may share time with another CF. I bet the Brew Crew wish they were back in the AL where a DH could ease things. OK, so why Hart? Because I think Ned Yost wants to give this guy every day playing time, even though he could possibly be a year away from being a full timer (I have seen 4 projections, and three have Hart getting less than 350 AB). If Hart does get the full time gig, and if he bats in the heart of the order as projected, (I hate to go by minor league numbers, but...) he is has real sleeper potential and could deliver in all 5 offensive categories. Ok, a few huge "IFs". In a deep fantasy league with very savvy managers you cannot succeed without getting a few players who exceed their draft position. If Hart becomes that player, then I'll be pointing to the 237th pick in the draft as the reason for my success in the RIBC PCL.
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| 77 | Species
Achiever
ID: 3590317
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 18:02
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15.14 Dave Roberts, OF, SF
With my stocking up of high OBP and SLG hitters through 10 rounds, especially after getting Barry Bonds, my strategy was to take a pair of light hitting speedster OF's in these early teen rounds. I wanted two out of Podsednik, Duffy and Roberts. Sadly that strategy did not pan out. Roberts could be a wasted pick.
On his own, Roberts has respectable value at this point in the draft. He stole 49 bags in SD last year and of course his manager was Bruce Bochy, who is now his manager with the Giants. They have openly spoke about Roberts being aggressive on the bases this year and even Bonds has said for him not to stop and let people walk him if they must. He has a very respectable OBP the last two years (around .357) so while his SLG is a drag I have tons of SLG and RBI so it's a worthwhile gambit.
I'll just have to hope I can pick up or trade for a SB guy later.
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| 78 | darkside
Achiever
ID: 3590317
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 18:03
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15.15 Melvin Mora, 3B, Bal
The picks between my last one and this one really put a hurting on my queue. I’d had quite a few guys listed at OTC and all but only a few of them ended up being taken, including Mora. I was surprised because I’d added him to my queue about 5 rounds earlier and assumed I wouldn’t get him because I already had 1B, 3B, and CI taken care of. But, when this pick came around and he was still there, it was a pretty easy choice. Mora is nowhere near the hitter he was a few years back, but he’ll still give solid value from the 3B position (which is where he could end up for me since Teahen will also be OF eligible) in the form of 85 runs/rbis, 10 SB’s and, hopefully, an OPS around .800. Those projections may be a bit of a stretch, but taking Mora here wasn’t.
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| 79 | JL
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 18:34
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15.16 Greg Maddux, SP, SDG
Maddux hasn't been horrible during the past few seasons, and he proved that he still has a little left in the tank last season when he posted a 3.30 ERA/1.09 WHIP in 75 IP with the Dodgers at the end of last season. With the move to the pitcher's paradise that Petco is known as, I wouldn't be shocked to see him have an ERA around 4.00. You can't ask for much more than that at the end of the 15th round.
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| 80 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:18
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rationales continue with rounds 16-20
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| 81 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 21, 2007, 13:56
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rounds 21-25
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