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Subject: RIBC AAA: PCL Draft Rationales Rounds 16-20
Posted by: JeffG
- Leader [01584348] Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 18:33
continuing for next five rounds
rounds 1-5
rounds 6-10
rounds 11-15 |
| 1 | JL
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 18:35
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16.01 Ian Snell, SP, PIT
After going with somewhat proven commodities in Millwood and Maddux, I decided that I couldn't pass up the potential of Snell. Snell posted 8.18 K/9 last season and hitters had a BIPA of .302 against him, which can indicate that he was just unlucky last season. Given that he's only 25, I would assume that he's still got plenty of room to improve. He's got a chance to break out in a big way this year.
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| 2 | darkside
Achiever
ID: 3590317
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 18:37
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16.02 Shane Victorino, OF, Phi
I hadn’t been thinking of him at all because I had a few other ‘sleeper’ type OF’ers I thought would last till about now. Well, 2 of them, Ethier and Hart, were snagged in the 15th, so I started looking for another person to man my 4th OF spot. With Hart I liked his speed, so I was hoping to get someone who could give me some SB’s. When I read that Victorino had been working with Davey Lopes to improve his basestealing techniques, I thought I may have found my guy. He won’t hit for much power but his doubles will keep his SLG out of the toilet and he has a decent eye so his OBP will hopefully be above .350 meaning I think I can hope for an OPS of around .760-.775. His value will be if he can steal 20 bases. That is certainly asking for a lot, but this news of working with Lopes has got me hoping.
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| 3 | Species
Achiever
ID: 3590317
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 18:38
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16.03 Rafael Soriano, RP, Atl
It was my turn to pick up some relief pitching. I've followed Soriano for a couple of years now and when healthy he's an excellent setup guy with closer stuff. I expect a 3.00 or better ERA with a sub-1.20 WHIP and strong K/9
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| 4 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 16, 2007, 18:59
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16.04 Scott Linebrink, RP, SD
A set up guy who almost every MLB GM inquires about when talking to the Padres. Seems to always be involved in the trade rumors. He won't get saves behind the ageless and durable Trevor Hoffman, but delivers close to a K per inning, a solid ERA and WHIP, and seems to get 6-8 wins a season.
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| 5 | Toral
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:00
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16.05 Ted Lilly, SP, CHC
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| 6 | ksoze
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:01
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16.06 Jose Contreras, SP, ChiSox
Coming up to this pick I was sure I was going to take another pitcher but figured it would probably be a RP, both Soriano and Linebrink were queued up. If they were gone I had Contreras. Of course, they went two and three picks before me. Jose is injury prone but his injuries last year weren't to his arm. His K rate is decent, he's capable of a sub-4.00 ERA, his WHIP has been below 1.30 each of the last two seasons and he should win some games. Here's to crossing my fingers.
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| 7 | Slackjawed Yokell
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:01
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16.07 Curtis Granderson, OF, DET
As the talent pool starts to thin out, I'm looking more to fill a hole in my roster than finding a gem. Here I needed an outfielder as I only had two. I thought about Gary Matthews, but thought the allegations against him may have a negative effect. I opted for Granderson - the latest news out of spring training shows him having some success with a shortened swing that he's adopted to cut down on K's.
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| 8 | Andrew
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:02
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16.08 Jonny Gomes, OF, TAM
This guy flat out raked in 2005, but then sophomore slump issues and an injured shoulder destroyed his 2006 season. He is healthy now, and in a much improved offense I could see him being an absolute force this year. I could be searching the waiver wire for his replacement as well... Another upside pick, I really need him, because my OFs are kind of week I think.
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| 9 | allhair allstars
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:03
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16.09 Jason Jennings, SP, HOU
Jennings showed some promise last year in Colorado's cigar conditioned environment, but his win totals were ugly. Of course, that was with the league's 2nd worst run support. The switch to Houston and their beefed up offense should help his win totals, but it's questionable whether he'll revert to his somewhat unsightly form of the 2005 season, or continue the progress he made last year. Given that at this point there's not a ton of sure things out there, I go with someone that looks like he might look something like a sure thing, if things go well. No, actually I'm ok with this pick.
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| 10 | Smith32
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:03
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16.10 Kenny Lofton, OF, TEX
Still trying to find some steals to go with my sluggers. Texas is a good place for inflated offensive numbers - certainly better than LA. But Lofton isn't getting any younger either. Hoping for 25-30 steals, a decent OBP, and maybe 90-100 runs. SLG and RBI will not be great, but I think those are my strengths so he shouldn't hurt me too much there.
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| 11 | Weykool
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:04
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16.11 Jorge Cantu, 2B, TAM
Needed a MI and Cantu seemed to be the best available.
His numbers from last year were down from the prior year but obviously I'm hoping he can get back to his 2005 form.
In 2005 he hit 28 HR and 117 RBI
If I can get 20-100 out of him it would be another magnificent mid-draft pick.
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| 12 | loki
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:05
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16.12 Emil Brown, OF,KC
For this pick I was just looking for the best hitter remaining, and Brown was one of the few remaining.
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| 13 | C1-NRB
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:06
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16.13 David Eckstein, SS, STL
My Pick of Regret. Here is how I got suckered in:
A. Sets the table for Albert Pujols.
B. Projected Top 10 OBP for SS
C. World Series MVP
Rebutting, in order:
A. How do you average only 79 Runs per season setting the table for Albert Pujols?!
B. Fourth from the bottom projected OBP for everyday SS
C. So was Scott Brosious.
I was away from home. I felt the need to fill MI slots. I panicked. I conveniently logged in just as my pick came up and felt compelled to act quickly. I should’ve taken my time rather than picking in haste.
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| 14 | Cobwebs
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:06
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16.14 Milton Bradley, OF, OAK
Continuing on my quest to find 20-20 players, Bradley looks to have those kind of qualities. The problem is that he has a history of injuries, and only has had one season with over 500 AB. If Bradley can get a full season under his belt, 80+ runs/RBIs combined with 20 SB and a good OBP, is a possibility. The talent and potential is there, and the motivation too since it‘s a contract year with performance bonus
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| 15 | MBT
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:09
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16.15 David Dellucci, OF, CLE
Not exactly my first choice at this position, but when you're working off of a Q what can you do? If he can stay healthy he'll be fine as a backup OF, if not then you'll find him on the FA heap. He's capable of solid numbers, but his injury history worries me.
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| 16 | DaBomb
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:10
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16.16 Gary Matthews, OF, LAA
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17.01 Kenny Rogers, SP, DET
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| 17 | MBT
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:11
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17.02 Luke Scott, OF, HOU
Another kid with a ton of potential. He either hits the tar out of the ball or he strikes out. He hit alot of doubles last year and I'm hoping he'll translate some of those into HRs this season.
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| 18 | Cobwebs
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:11
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17.03 Zach Duke, SP, PIT
Now how can I explain this pick? Well, I was tired and wanted to pick a pitcher. Duke had a good second half and a brilliant September, and is doing well this spring. He logged 215 innings last year, which is impressive at his age of 23. I don’t know what to expect from Duke, but he’s the Pirates opening day starter, and hopefully he’ll continue his positive trend and produce decent numbers. Looking back at it, I probably should have taken Sowers instead.
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| 19 | C1-NRB
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:12
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17.04 Sean Casey, 1B, DET
Again, I was away from my primary board and was compelled to fill a slot. In this case it was CI.
I tend to shy away from guys hitting in the bottom third of the lineup, but Casey’s career .823 OPS intrigues me. Perhaps Leyland will move him up based on his career numbers being better the closer he bats to the middle of the card.
I’d like to see mid 60’s RBI and mid 50’s Runs with an .800 OPS this season.
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| 20 | loki
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:12
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17.05 Moises Alou, OF, NYM
I had not planned on taking 3 OFs in a row, but again I was looking for the best hitter available. I generally stay away from older players, but Alou can still hit. If he stays healthy, he will be a very good late round pick.
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| 21 | Weykool
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:13
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17.06 Ken Griffey, OF, CIN
Okay…this is where my draft went downhill and basically crashed and burned.
When healthy Griffey can mash with the best of them.
The problem is always staying healthy.
A very risky pick here as I should have taken Kotchman.
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| 22 | Smith32
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:14
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17.07 Mark DeRosa, 2B, CHC
Not much to say about DeRosa. He's your run-of-the-mill 17th round middle infielder. He's also eligible at 3B and OF, but heaven help me if I have to use him anywhere but MI. CBS had him at 90 runs, but I think that is based on him hitting in the top of the order, and I believe the Cubs now plan to have him hit near the bottom. So that will drop. But even 70-70-.340-.440 would be respectable from a MI at this point in the draft.
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| 23 | alhair allstars
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:14
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17.08 Rich Aurilia, Util, SFO
Aurilia was a way for me to grab some comfort coverage in my infield. He's about as utilitarian as you can get, as he's eligible at every spot in the infield, carries a decent bat around, and shouldn't destroy my OBP. I just need him to play when I need him. There was talk of Aurilia batting third in front of Bonds, but I don't see that happening. Shortly after I drafted him the lout got in a car accident and now has a strained groin. Excellent.
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| 24 | Andrew
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 13:19
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17.09 Adam Kennedy, 2B, STL
I was sort of panicking about Bobby Crosby's health when setting this queue. He has a fair amount of talent, but the real reason I went after him was the history of guys hitting infront of Albert Pujols. I've seen way too many David Ecksteins and Mark grudzieleneks of the world become prolific hitters at the top of that ST Louis lineup. I still don't know where he is hitting in that lineup. But if he is 1 or 2, which I expect he might be, then Crosby's health isn't such a big issue. I think this pick was probably a reach though, even in the 17th round.
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| 25 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 17:20
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17.10 BJ Upton, 3B, TB
Maybe this is the year Upton gets his chance to shine in the big leagues. He had a monster year in AAA a couple of years back, and should at minimum be a good source of steals. Depending on where the Rays field him I may get some multiple-position eligibility out of him as well. But for now he'll fill in my CI spot until Nick Johnson gets back.
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| 26 | ksoze
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 17:21
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17.11 Shea Hillenbrand, 1B, LAA
I was working on filling my bench here and typically look for players with multiple eligibility. This is the point in the draft that I'm now looking for players that I hope I'll never have to use. I had DeRosa first in my queue but he went four picks before me. Hillenbrand can... well... play 1st and 3rd for me. He might hit 20 HRs and combine for 140 runs/RBIs. Hopefully he'll do all that while sitting on my bench never needing to be used cause he'll probably bring my OBP down.
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| 27 | Toral
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 17:22
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17.12 Taylor Tankersley, RP, FLA
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| 28 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 17:25
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17.13 JJ Hardy, SS, Mil
I have no enthusiasm for this pick, but was more afraid as to what I would have as my SS if I let Hardy go. Was hoping to get SS eligible Rich Aurilia with this pick but he was plucked up by allhair 7 picks earlier. I have no real blurb for Hardy other than saying if he does not get off to a good start, I'll be keeping my eye on anyone with a hot bat in the free agent pool at shortstop. Are the Brewers really thinking of batting Hardy second? That many plate appearances could really kill my team averages. Maybe JJ can respond.
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| 29 | Species
ID: 571157298
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 17:38
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17.14 Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Col
Probably not my best pick of the draft, but the guys I wanted - BJ Upton and JJ Hardy - were snagged right before me. I saw two Brewers games in Spring Training and Hardy batted 2nd in both of them, so I think he has a good year. I knew I wanted to get a MI soon, so I went for the upside and picked "Tulo".
He is the starter in Colorado so that's a good start. I've followed him since he was drafted and know he's a solid prospect. This is probably a reach but I wanted a MI to fill that spot so I took one.
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| 30 | darkside
ID: 571157298
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 17:39
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17.15 Kei Igawa, SP, NYY
Having drafted only 3 starting pitchers I knew that I needed to grab at least one more. I decided to go with Igawa here because I felt he had a lot of upside, especially since he’s only 27. Obviously the issue with a Japanese player is whether or not their adjustment to MLB will be a smooth one. I know only a little about him, but he seems to be the type that could do well. Rotowire describes him as being very confident, so that at least opens up the possibility that he’ll be able to handle all the media pressure of being a pitcher for the Yankees. He was a great pitcher in Japan having won an MVP award, the pitching triple crown and 3 strikeout titles. Certainly he won’t be that dominant here, but he’s got the tools to be a solid 3 or 4. I’d be happy with 140 SO’s 12-15 wins (which is certainly feasible with the powerful Yankee lineup behind him) an ERA in the low 4’s and WHIP around 1.3.
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| 31 | JL
ID: 571157298
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 18:06
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17.16 Jason Varitek, C, Bos
There's not really much to say here. I needed a catcher. Varitek had the best numbers across the board compared to all other available catchers. If I had known that Pierzynski would still be available two rounds later, I probably would've taken a chance on Howry, Edmonds, Rodney, or Betemit. Oh well...
18.01 Mike Stanton, RP, Cin
I never felt like there was a good time to take a second closer during the draft, so I screwed myself by passing on them even though I had told myself that I wasn't going to let that happen again this year. Well, it happened and now I'm grasping at whatever I can get in the Saves category. Stanton is supposedly in a co-closer role with David Weathers this year. If David Weathers can continue to be David Weathers and Stanton can miraculously pull something meaningful out of his ass at age 40, then he could become Cincy's lone closer. Probably not, though...
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| 32 | darkside
ID: 571157298
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 18:07
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18.02 Jeremy Sowers, SP, Cle
This was a very tough choice for me. On the heels of the news that Oliver Perez had just fanned 9 in 4 innings I had him at the top of my queue, but chickened out at the last second. I drafted Perez on all my teams last year and was, obviously, burned badly. I just wasn’t up for it again this year when there were still other quality starters out there. So, I went with Sowers. This isn’t necessarily a safe pick, but I like the potential. He showed last year he can compete at the ML level and has had nothing but success in his pro career. The knock on him in a 5x5 league is that he doesn’t get many SO’s, but I can live with that. He’s only going to be 24 and is starting for a very solid Tribe squad. An ERA under 4.00, a WHIP under 1.20, 80 SO’s and 14 wins is what I’m looking for.
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| 33 | Species
ID: 571157298
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 18:08
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18.03 Pat Neshek, RP, Min
Neshek put up sick stats upon his callup last year. A closer in AAA, Neshek fit in quite well amongst MIN's stacked bullpen to the tune of a 2.19 ERA, 0.78 WHIP and an astonishing 12.89 K/9. Most projections have him coming down to earth in the 3.00 ERA, 1.10 WHIP range, but all projections keep his gaudy K/9 above 9.00 and several are above 10.00. He's a fine addition to my overall "get good starters late but really augment them with great RP with great ratios and high K/9" strategy.
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| 34 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 18:12
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18.04 Noah Lowry SP SF
In the 18th round, the guy you want can still go the pick right before yours. I had Pat Neshek in my 1-man queue, and was not prepared for Plan B when Species grabbed him (he can have my rationale if he wants). I looked at the few hitters on top of my board (L.Gonzalez, Rowand, Blake, Sledge), but perhaps a couple will come back to me. Looked at the top pitchers left on my SP board. Buehrle and Hudson were ahead of Lowry on my list, but I could not pull the trigger for among other reasons Buehrle is getting bashed this spring, and Hudson who is 5 years older than Lowry, was just so disapointing without a good explanation for the downturn.
At this point of the draft, 66 starters have been taken so finding a 4-category starter is impossible. This is a risky pick. Lowry was a serious up and comer going into last year. In the 2006 RIBC, Guru said in his 11.06 rationale "If this were a keeper league, I’d probably, go with Lowry...", he was picked 5 slots later in a rationale described by jumpball as a ..no brainer..". Of course, Lowry spent most of 2006 pitching hurt, or so the story goes. I do not expect Lowry to return to a no-brainer young pitcher worthy of keeper consideration, but I am hoping that he was not a flash in the pan. Hoping for no worse than 12 W, 4.00 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and 160 Ks in 200 IP.
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| 35 | Toral
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 23:33
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18.05 David DeJesus, OF, KAN
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| 36 | ksoze
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 23:33
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18.06 Tim Hudson, SP, ATL
Might as well be throwing darts here. Had Lowry queued up, he went a couple of picks before me. Also had Wes Helms in there but had just taken Hillenbrand for my last pick, didn't want to take another corners guy now (though if Helms had made it back to me I'd have taken him in round 19). Went with Hudson cause I needed another SP. Dunno if he'll be any good but he's supposedly worked hard at strengthening this offseason, maybe it'll result in more K's and reliability. Sounds as good as anything I guess.
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| 37 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 23:34
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18.07 Randy Winn, OF, SFO
I still needed to pick a fourth outfielder. I narrowed it down to Winn and Edmonds. I checked the boxscores for the spring training games of the day, and Winn went 3-4 with a HR - sold!
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| 38 | Andrew
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sat, Mar 17, 2007, 23:35
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18.08 Casey Kotchman, 1B, LAA
This player is the real reason Paul Konerko or some other big bat isn't playing 1st for the Angels. He started out his major league career by setting the record for consecutive ABs to start a carreer w/ out striking out. He crushed the record. He absolutely killed the ball all throughout the minors and hit well in all his major league chances. Then last year in spring training he got mono. I've seen some people get pretty messed up by that, and weren't able to get out of bed for weeks. Well, he played through it and then was out the entire season and lost like 15 pounds and looked sickly. He is back, healthy, and after hitting the weight room is stronger then ever before. He is hitting the crap out of the ball in spring training. A huge sleeper of mine, I expect that he'll be drafted 10-15 rounds sooner next year atleast.
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| 39 | allhair allstars
ID: 5614179
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 01:19
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18.09 Bobby Howry, RP, CHC
In a feeble attempt to shore up my closer crew, I jump on Howry. If you've been following you know I already have Dempster, but my faith in his ability to hold the job through the season is rather slim. Up until this point the Cubs closer situation has been a scary situation to delve into because of Howry and Wood sitting in the wings to knock Dempster off his already too precarious perch. News out of Chicago has Wood experiencing pain in his tricep, which leads me to think that Howry might be the more solid handcuff to Dempster of the two of them. Howry's a solid pitcher regardless, and the early indications suggest that Howry would be a good vulture candidate as well.
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| 40 | Smith32
ID: 17348117
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 08:46
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18.10 Jorge Julio, RP, ARI?
This pick was based entirely on speculation that Julio will be traded to a team where he becomes the closer. Without the saves, he is just a mediocre middle reliever with average K / WHIP / ERA numbers. But in the 18th round, I'm willing to speculate a little.
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| 41 | Weykool
ID: 17348117
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 08:47
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18.11 Josh Johnson, SP, FLA
Ugg….out for the first two month of the season….now what?
Don’t know…..have no clue….."lost" another starter when Papelbon went to the pen as well as Wang and Colon missing the first month of the season.
At first I was short on relievers but now very thin at the SP position.
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| 42 | loki
ID: 17348117
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 08:48
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18.12 Oliver Perez, SP, NYM
Perez was dominant in 2004 striking out 239 in 196 innings pitched. He was terrible in 2005 and the first half of 2006 and Pitt traded him to the NYMs. Omar Minaya is an astute GM, and he seemed to have picked up a bargain as Perez pitched well at the end of 2006. In his last spring training outing Perez struck out 9 in 5 shutout innings. I am hoping that Perez will be the sleeper of the draft.
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| 43 | C1-NRB
ID: 17348117
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 08:50
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18.13 Luis Gonzalez, OF, LAD
I wanted Kenny Lofton here. I wanted his SB and R potential. Oh, well.
Two thirds of the way through the draft I was looking to add to my OF. Luis Gonzalez will put up 18th round respectable numbers. I’d like run production around 80 RBI and 75 Runs. Why not take him ahead of Sean Casey (17.04) if I expect that much better run production? His OBP an SLG have steadily declined over the past 4 seasons where Casey’s dips the last two seasons have likely been due to injury.
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| 44 | Cobwebs
ID: 17348117
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 13:00
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18.14 Wes Helms, 1B, PHI
This was a very easy pick for me. I’m expecting big things from Helms this year. There’s talk about Helms having a platoon role with Nunez. Sure Nunez will replace Helms for defensive reasons late in games, but Helms will still get at least 480 AB. Last season in 240 AB, he had 10 homers and 47 RBIs. Project that to 480 AB and that's 20 homers and 94 RBIs, and add the fact that he will play half his games in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Helms could get 100+ RBIs. His OBP, SLG, and OPS last season were .390 .575 .965! Helms used to be a free-swinger, but now he’s more of a situational hitter, which is one reason that his OBP has increased the last 3 years. Helms is expected to open the season hitting sixth, but could move up if he swings a hot bat and Pat Burrell struggles. Don’t know how many had Helms on their radar but I’m thrilled at getting him this late in the draft.
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| 45 | MBT
ID: 17348117
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 13:02
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18.15 Juan Rivera, OF, LAA
Yet another slugger OF. He either smacks it out of the park or strikes out. His OBP was .362 last year which shows more patience as he's matured as a hitter. I'm looking for 80 RBIs, 20 HR and 70 Runs out of Rivera this year.
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| 46 | Da Bomb
ID: 17348117
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 13:03
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18.16 Roger Clemens, SP, ?
Placeholder
19.01 Kevin Kouzmanoff, Util, SDG
Placeholder
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| 47 | MBT
ID: 17348117
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 13:05
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19.02 Nate Robertson, SP, DET
My Q had exhausted at this point and luckily AA was paying attention and picked up a SP for me with this pick. He's a consistent inning eater, but doesn't have quite the K rate that I would have liked. If he can keep his ERA under 4.00 I'll be happy and expect around 10-13 wins out of him.
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| 48 | Cobwebs
ID: 17348117
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 13:06
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19.03 Jose Vidro, 2B, SEA
I really don’t know what to expect from Vidro, but I love the idea of him batting 3rd in front of Ibanez and Sexson. Vidro is an exceptional hitter that has been barred by injuries the last 3 years, maybe he can stay healthy this season only having to DH. I won’t get any SB from Vidro, but I will get a high OBP that should translate to quite a few runs and RBIs, and if he can get some of his pop back and a SLG over .400, then I’m a believer that he’ll have a very productive year.
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| 49 | C1-NRB
ID: 17348117
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 13:08
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19.04 Pedro Martinez, SP, NYM
It’s the 19th round. He’s Pedro Martinez. So what if he’s coming off surgery? In his throwing sessions so far everything is going well. He’s in no hurry to be back, so when he does take the mound he’ll be fine.
Do I expect the Pedro of the Randro days? No. But even a slightly declined Pedro will be better than most rotation number twos.
Pedro will probably ride my bench through his first start so I can evaluate game performance. Depending on the outcome, he could be a permanent fixture in the rotation or a spot starter against weak hitting teams.
A sub 1.2 WHIP and 140+ K would make him an absolute late round steal. Double digit wins considering limited playing time would be a cherry on top.
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| 50 | loki
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 16:43
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19.05 Nick Punto, SS, MIN
Starting at 3B for Minnesota but qualifies at SS. Filled my need for a middle infielder and had 17 SBs in 2006.
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| 51 | Weykool
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 16:44
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19.06 Derrick Turnbow, RP, MIL
I actually realized a couple of rounds earlier that I had made a major blunder by not following up on my pick of K-Rod.
However, the now infamous mid-round closer run took all the decent RP's and I decided to wait and take a few flier picks late.
Turnbow would need an injury to Cordero to reclaim his closer role.
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| 52 | Smith32
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 16:47
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19.07 Craig Monroe, OF, DET
Up to this point I was 1 hitter shy of a full offensive lineup. A lot of the mainstream ranking sources (Yahoo, CBS, ESPN) had him in the mid 50's for OF, so I figured he was a decent value here. His poor OBP (.310ish) might kill me, but 85-90 runs and RBI and a SLG of .475 won't hurt.
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| 53 | allhair allstars
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 16:48
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19.08 Casey Blake, OF, CLE
Casey put up solid numbers last year in limited time. If he can repeat that, I'll be happy. He's a little crowded for playing time, but he should get reasonable at-bats. I don't see him getting much time at 1B, with VMart due to spend some time there and with Hafner wanting to play there once a week. Plus, Garko's not far behind. Cleveland's OF is a little crowded as well... Wait. Why did I draft this guy again?
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| 54 | Andrew
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 16:48
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19.09 Jason Kubel, OF, MIN
Another really talented player who was hurt last year. He actually went to high school down the street from where I live and I know one of his coaches fairly well. continueing my trend of young upside players, Kubel has been a favorite sleeper of mine for 2-3 years now. He is healthy, and has been given a starting job in a strong Minnesota lineup. He, along w/ Gomes, are crucial to my success.
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| 55 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 16:49
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19.10 Fernando Rodney, RP, DET
I missed out on the top-tier middle relievers (if that's not an oxymoron), but thought Rodney was a good value here. Overshadowed by Zumaya, Rodney has really put some good seasons together. He should stand to picks up a handful of saves as well as averaging over a strikeout an inning and lowering my team's era and whip.
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| 56 | ksoze
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 16:49
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19.11 Jason Bartlett, SS, MIN
Another player I'm picking to fill in as a backup that I hope I don't have to resort to using. He shouldn't hurt my OBP and might steal 15 bases. If he hits in the 2 spot in the lineup he'll score some runs. It was really between Bartlett and Brian Wilson here. I looked at the teams picking twice between this pick and my 20th round pick and decided it was just as likely for Bartlett to be picked as it was Wilson, though I hoped Wilson had a better chance of slipping back. Darkside indicates in his 19.15 rationale that he may have taken Bartlett so it appears if I'd gone the other way Bartlett wouldn't have made it back to me... either way I probably only get one of them. Hopefully I don't need to use Bartlett much and Wilson doesn't pick up any saves.
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| 57 | Toral
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 16:50
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19.12 Cliff Lee, SP, CLE
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| 58 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 16:51
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19.13 Aaron Rowand OF Phi
Started looking at Rowand for my round 18 picks along with 3 other OF. Two of the four I considered made it back to me (Rowand & Sledge). Rowand had that great rookie season for the White Sox in 2004, but has killed his season numbers every year since by getting into extended slumps. What is it with Philadelphia that takes perfectly good past or future White Sox (think Thome) and turns them into underachievers? He is my 5th OF selection, so I'll be monitoring closely in the hopes he finds his groove again. There is talk of him being traded, not that I know what to do with that information since supposedly Citizens Bank Park is pretty hitter friendly to begin with.
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| 59 | Species
ID: 181035120
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 18:02
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19.14 Jim Edmonds, OF, StL
An easy pick. His OPS is head and shoulders above anyone available. I had to do a double-take when he was still shown as available on my cheat sheet - I figured I must've missed crossing him off, but alas he was available.
Okay, I'll be lucky to get 130 games out of him, and with Bonds already on my team that is an issue, but if I can manage it well and get another starting OF on my squad (which I did in round 21, much to my delight) to make up games every day possible, then I will be rock solid. Edmonds is an easy .875 OPS guy and if I got 75/75 out of him in 130 games that's a steal in round 19.
I would have considered a CI with this pick but couldn't pass on Edmonds.
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| 60 | darkside
ID: 181035120
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 18:02
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19.15 Wilson Betemit, 2B/SS/3B, LAD
After the three SS I thought would make it back to me (Hardy, Punto, Bartlett) were all taken, I knew I needed to grab someone quick. I decided on Betemit mainly because he’s young (27 this year), has a starting job and qualifies at 3 positions. For a MI he could actually have a fair amount of power (21 AB/HR last year), but the question is whether he will hold onto his starting job. Right now 3B is his and with that I think he’s a solid pick this late in the draft.
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| 61 | JL
ID: 571157298
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 19:33
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19.16 Matt Capps, RP, Pit
I'm still fishing for potential closers at this point. Capps is young guy that put up good numbers last season and many believe that he could step into the closer's role in Torres falters. I considered taking similar players like Kevin Gregg and Jon Rauch, but Capps seems like he has more potential to be useful in 2007. Matt Garza was another sleeper that I considered, but I thought he would be around for my next set of picks.
20.01 Jon Garland, SP, ChW
I realize that Garland isn't great, but the guy won 18 games in each of the last two seasons and he was one of the league's top pitchers in 2005. Given the lack of options for pitchers in the 20th round, Garland seems like the best way to go.
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| 62 | darkside
ID: 571157298
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 19:35
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20.02 Matt Murton, OF, ChC
I drafted Murton last year thinking he had a starting job all locked up only to find that Dusty is Dusty and would rather let a youngster sit on the bench rather than give him time to find himself on the field. Luckily, Dusty is gone, but I’m not sure Sweet Lou will be any better to him, especially since they also have Cliff Floyd. There’s talk of a platoon w/ Murton and Floyd, but given Floyd’s injury history I’m hopeful Murton will get 450 AB’s. Even if he doesn’t, it won’t be a huge loss since he’s slated to be on my bench anyway. He’s got a good eye and should have a decent OBP and with reasonable power should be able to post an OPS around .800. If he hits 2nd as has been discussed, he could end up scoring 80 or so runs and possibly knocking in 50-60 rbis. I’ll take that in the 20th round.
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| 63 | Species
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 20:41
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20.03 Brian Wilson, RP, SFO
This was pretty cool - I was in Phoenix for Spring Training during this portion of the draft, and I had been able to see Wilson about as close as you can without being in the dugout....hell I was only 3 rows behind the screen to the right of the dugout. He looked good.
Obviously this is a completely speculative pick. Being a Giants fan and listening to their flagship radio station, I know there is a lot of discontent surrounding Armando Benitez, both from a performance standpoint as well as a clubhouse standpoint. The Giants' longtime beat writer for the SF Chronicle said the Giants were so fed up with this bozo that there was NO WAY Benitez would be on the Opening Day roster...that they were praying that he would show enough to get some team to take him off his hands. Well he's pitched well in the spring (statistically at least) and Wilson is the de facto 2nd choice if Benitez is traded. I'll keep my fingers crossed.
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| 64 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 20:42
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20.04 Kevin Gregg, RP, Fla
Just looking for a MR who can provide a good K/9 and a sub 4.00 ERA. Gregg was burried in the Angels bullpen the last 3 years and produced like numbers, so hoping that a trip to a pitcher friendly park will improve on that. In the mix for Marlin's saves, but it is likely they will go another way, and they are not going to win that many games to save anyway. I probably could have waited for round 24/25 for this pick.
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| 65 | Toral
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 22:13
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20.05 Josh Bard, C, SDG
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| 66 | ksoze
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 22:14
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20.06 Kyle Farnsworth, RP, NYY
Like I said in the Bartlett rationale, I wanted Wilson here, I was trying to snag a few elusive saves. PPPFFFBBBBTTTT!!! So... Farnsworth it was. He'll have a good strikeout rate and might not hurt my WHIP and ERA. Maybe this'll be the year Mariano's not so durable... let's roll the dice!!!
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| 67 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 22:15
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20.07 Akinori Iwamura, 3B, TB
This guy regularly hit 30+ hr's and drove in 100 runs the past few seasons in Japan. And he's coming to the majors in his prime (28). It'll probably take him a while to adjust (he certainly has struggled at the plate this spring training), but he should be able to produce in the developing TB lineup - of which I now have 3 of them on my roster.
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| 68 | Andrew
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 22:18
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20.08 James Shields, SP, TAM
I was so convinced that I took my SPs too early, that after Lowe and Gonzalez I didn't touch another pitcher for way too long. I don't think Shields is ready yet, and if he were ready, I don't think his ceiling is that high. I could see decent wins, good k's and a mid to low 4 ERA, and that would satisfy me. As my 6th starter, in the 20th round, I can afford to replace him, and he has some upside if he puts it all together. Not expecting much from this pick though.
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| 69 | allhair allstars
Leader
ID: 01584348
Sun, Mar 18, 2007, 22:19
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20.09 Mike Lowell, Util, BOS
This looked like a pretty nice value, coming with the 311th pick in the draft. He provides backup for Cabrera and give me a good stick for my utility spot. Still not sure what happened to him after the '03 and '04 seasons, and I'm certainly not expecting anything unreasonable from him. I was trying, at this point in the draft, to grab some decent offense, and Blake (19.08) and Lowell are the guys that brought in the Help Wanted sign. Funny how some players get better lookin' the longer you look at them (on your cheatsheet)...
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| 70 | Smith32
Leader
ID: 01584348
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 11:01
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20.10 Brandon McCarthy, SP, TEX
Having been relegated to the 'pen for most of his time in Chi-town, McCarthy finally gets a chance to be a full-time starter. Texas isn't the best place for good pitching numbers, but I like his upside. He'll probably be an average fantasy starter - 13 W, 140 K, 4.00 / 1.30, which would be ok with me, since he's my 6th SP.
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| 71 | Weykool
Leader
ID: 01584348
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 11:02
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20.11 Todd Coffey, RP, CIN
Another RP flier pick (see Turnbow 19.06)
Crossing my fingers here that he gets the Closer position and can trade him for some sort of a starter.
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| 72 | loki
Leader
ID: 01584348
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 11:02
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20.12 George Sherrill, RP, SEA
I had wanted Brian Wilson, but he was taken before me. Sherrill should pick up a fair number as closer when Putz is out with an injury(as he is now).
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| 73 | C1-NRB
Leader
ID: 01584348
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 11:03
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20.13 Rafael Betancourt, RP, CLE
Projected to maintain his career WHIP in the low 1.teens, Betancourt is one of those feast-or-famine situational relievers you usually have to ride out to get any benefit from.
I’ll go along for the ride, since there appears to be an interesting pattern to his rollercoaster stats; he does better in odd-numbered months than he does in even-numbered months. In fact, he only gave up a total of three earned runs in May, July, and September last season in 27 innings.
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| 74 | Cobwebs
Leader
ID: 01584348
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 11:03
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20.14 Kelly Johnson, OF, ATL
I really didn’t expect Kelly Johnson to be around here. Maybe it’s because that he hasn’t been named the starting 2B yet, or that he hasn’t had a good enough spring, I don’t care, I’d be very surprised if he isn’t in the starting lineup batting leadoff on opening day. He can run, and he’s got power, and he’ll have a decent OBP, and Bobby Cox seems to like him. Johnson is only eligible at OF, but should pretty quickly earn eligibility at 2B, which fits pretty well in with my needs. He should be a good source for runs, and definitely worth gambling on, this late in the draft.
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| 75 | MBT
Leader
ID: 01584348
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 11:04
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20.15 Doug Davis, SP, ARI
Quite frankly I needed another SP and Davis at least has a solid track record. Maybe getting a fresh start in ARI will be good for both him and Unit. He's capable of 180 K's and a sub 4.00 ERA when healthy and I think people forget that he put up 208K's and a 3.84 ERA in 2005. Lots of reward potential for a 20th rounder.
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| 76 | DaBomb
Leader
ID: 01584348
Mon, Mar 19, 2007, 11:04
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20.16 Chris Iannetta, C, COL
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| 77 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Wed, Mar 21, 2007, 13:56
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rationales continue with rounds 21-25
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Post a reply to this message: (But first, how about checking out this sponsor?)
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