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Subject: RIBC AAA: PCL Draft Recap
Posted by: Species
- Dude [07724916] Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 11:37
PCL Managers: This thread is for overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say.
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently? |
| 1 | C1-NRB
ID: 24954318
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 16:06
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I took the fourth pick this year and based my drafting accordingly. By that I mean the only way I wouldn’t take Johan Santana would be if one of the “super-studs” fell to me. All three went as expected. Having Santana anchor my staff gave me the opportunity to compete in P categories where I was uncompetitive in previous RIBCs, particularly W and K. This pick set the tone for all my SP picks, as this year I tried to focus on guys who I thought would contribute to those two categories in particular. I didn’t wind up with the best closer tandem, but did pick up a couple of prime middle relief/ set-up guys who I hope will help keep my WHIP and ERA in check.
Hitting-wise, I lean heavily towards two categories- OBP and R. I want to think the relationship between OBP and R has a high correlation. You can’t score if you don’t get on base, so the more times you get on, the more likely you are to score. Following this same (likely flawed) logic, if you’re getting on base, there is a greater-than-zero chance that someone else was on ahead of you so an RBI might have been added in the process. Bases are stolen to get into scoring position which leads to Runs. I’ve not been competitive in St in years past and I don’t expect to lead the league this year, either.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I like Justin Morneau at 3.04 and Scott Olsen at 12.13
Morneau was mentioned in three rationales after I took him and Species discussion board rant about Olsen makes me confident, at least for now, that I made a good pick at that spot.
Do overs would be picks 16-18, Eckstein (see “rationale”), Sean Casey, and Luis Gonzalez. I was on vacation during those picks and couldn’t/ didn’t ponder them as long as I normally would have liked to.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I like loki’s because he has a strong OF and good SP.
Allhair allstar’s team has good H/P balance.
Interestingly, JL looks like he did pretty well for himself at the bottom turn.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The middle reliever/ closer-in-waiting run that occurred 12.14- 13.04 It stands out to me because I felt like I got caught on the back end of it and I don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it before in an RIBC.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I don’t like my OF. I’m not comfortable with any OF on my roster. I’ll be surprised if any of them stays with me all season.
I may have drafted too many SP. Taking Santana put me in a mindset that I felt I shouldn’t let his W and K languish without a strong support staff to put up consistent W and K as well. In eyeing K (and, to a certain extent, W) too closely, my WHIP may suffer. And as the WHIP goes, so usually goes the ERA.
This was the first year I participated in a pick-by-pick rationale. I enjoyed it more than I thought I would. It made me put each pick in perspective and weigh what I was considering because I knew I’d have to “rationalize” or at least “justify” it to someone besides myself. allhair allstars said it best in his first round rationale, “it’s just that a ‘rationale’ implies that there was not just a reason, but a rational reason…” I actually changed some picks because I couldn’t rationalize why I was taking certain players at a given pick.
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| 3 | Species
Dude
ID: 07724916
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 19:19
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
On offense, I'm pretty much an OPS hound. Not unlike C1-NRB, I figure that if OPS is high then the counting stats will follow. While I wanted to get premium MI if given the chance, I didn't want to reach for one early and mostly took a "best player available" tact early.
With pitching, I've learned my lesson in past RIBC's about stocking up on starters too soon. After that, I definitely want to get 2 solid closers and stock up on some long shots. In all cases I value ratios and K/9 as wins are fickle. I wanted 4 solid starters with a possible 5th, and rounding out my staff with low ratio, high K/9 relievers, be they closers or not.
Did it work? Yes and no. I swayed from my no-SP strategy with a late 3rd rounder on Webb, who I couldn't resist taking at 3.14. I have a stellar OBP/SLG base, IMO, but I will likely be lacking in SB (all of the SB-heavy MI disappeared really early) and I'm counting on a few comeback years (Lidge, Peralta) and a few healthy years (Bonds, Edmonds) to give me a chance to win.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
For me, I loved Bonds at 8.03. He looks fabulous so far this year and should easily outpace his knee/elbow wrecked year of 2006. I also liked Ian Kinsler at 9.14 compared to some other young 2b that went many rounds before. If I get 130 games out of Jim Edmonds he's a steal at 19.14 with those ratios.
I'd do over Freddy Garcia (12.03) mainly because of the setup man run that happened after I took him, plus I may be giving him too much credit in the whole "moving from the AL to NL" thing. I also regret Tulowitzki (17.14) as a reach MI pick....way too early for him unless he has a breakout year.
Other steals: Randy Johnson (10.15), Akinori Otsuka (13.03 - just don't think Gagne holds up), Jon Papelbon (8.11 - lucky pick), Dontrelle Willis (9.07), Richie Sexson (6.09), Nick Markakis (9.11 - he is going to go off), Mark Prior (23.11 - I was at ST - he was off my radar unfortunately), Ted Lilly (16.05), Todd Jones (11.13), Russell Martin (12.02), Carlos Quentin (13.15), Randy Wolf (24.02), Kevin Millwood (14.01), Ryan Zimmerman (5.16).
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
If this was a 10 round draft, I would have said to start engraving MBT on the trophy....but I wonder about his draft after that - 3 straight setup men is interesting in rounds 11-13. Cobwebs has a nice team especially if some of his closer plays (Otsuka, MacDougal, Hermanson) pan out. Slackjawed has a lot of nice players and balance, and I like a lot of ksoze's team but outside of Thome he has no boppers. I think JL did magnificently for his draft slot....I growled many times at the value he always seemed to get on the turn.
In reality EVERY team has it's share of strengths and weaknesses.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Two things:
#1 was EASILY the setup man/wannabe closer run of the 12th and 13th round. An important part of my pitching strategy was to get 4 solid starters (800 IP) and round out my rotation with 5 relievers with low ratios and high K/9, and guys like Broxton, Shields, Duchserer, Otsuka, Gonzalez, Wheeler (for obvious reasons as I have Lidge) and others were high on my list as they all had save potential, strong ERA/WHIP and strong K/9. I got blindsided by this run as I really HAD to have Wheeler.
#2 was how some teams that had spent a 3rd or 4th round pick on a stud closer didn't follow up with at least a "solid" 2nd closer to pair them up with. One example that turned out okay was Weykool with K-Rod but not following it up until a Turnbow/Coffey/Owens set of shots in the dark in rounds 19-21.
Another example would be Toral, who - in perhaps the funniest "now that you look back" set of picks in RIBC history - consecutively took Donnelly, Tavarez and Timlin in rounds 22 - 24 searching for that elusive Boston closer, only to have Papelbon reclaim his throne days after the draft ended. Don't shed a tear for him though, in my experience he is a master at scrap heap/waiver wire save hunting.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Not really. For the most part I think I got good value in those first 15 rounds. I have my share of risks and upside picks like everyone else, but hopefully I correctly calculated the benefits of those risks and am rewarded accordingly.
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| 4 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 19:59
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I had a few rules I tried to follow:
On the general drafting side, if I do not get a stud 2B or SS, no matter how much I hate the choices available, I cannot wait too long to fill these slots since this is a very deep league. One year in this format I only had one 2B chosen thru round 20 and ended up with stats drainers. This year, I ended up drafting my 3 MI in rounds 10, 14 and 17. But, will my passing up Tejada at 2.04 (who went 4 picks later) for Sizemore haunt me.
On the pitching side: In my prior RIBC seasons I always picked a starter with one of my first two picks, and try to have 2 in the first 6. My thinking was that I'd get a top tier and a second tier guy who can get wins and help the averages and if possible I try to pick good K/IP guys. Unfortunately, every year one of my two top pitchers had issues and became a throw away pick. I found that mid season I was always to pick up that a starter (Olsen last year, Felix the year before) who could prove almost as reliable as mid draft pitchers. So I decided my intial pitching focus would be closers who will keep me competitive in saves and offset the lesser averages the third-plus tier starters tend to have that I could get mid-draft.
On the hitting side: I hate drafting one or two dimensional steal guys but also hate bagging steals. Unfortunately there are only a few steals guys who also contribute to the power and production numbers. But picking 13th the steals studs won't make it to me. So I again will try to build my team with players who will help steals in small chunks (I have 6 players projected to get double digits in steals), but more importanlty, help in the other categories. If I can finish middle of the pack in steals and double digits everywhere else I'll be happy.
Overall: Every year pre-draft I set team goals for what I think I need to accumulate in each category to score a 11 out of 16, which would be 110 points which would contend. I base it on last years RIBC final results.
This year those goals were .355 OBP, .468 SLG, 986 RBI, 1036 R, 139 SB. 4.32 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 1096 K, 87W, 75 SV.
Was I able to execute the plan? Based on projections, my drafed team on the hitting side is tracking low in RBI and R from these goals, but on track or above with everything else. I'm lower on the pitching counting stats, but about 200 IP under the max with my current staff, so I'll hopefully make up some of those numbers with decent pitching pick ups. I'm real good on the pitching averages.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I really like Vernon Wells being available in the 4th round. I think my mid-round sagastic pick of Connor Jackson (12th) and my sleeper Corey Hart (15th) could both make my offense seriously contend. I like OF Chris Burk (14th) to possibly be a value pick because of his 2B eligibility.
I'm leary of my Jenks pick (6th) because of combination of the spring troubles he is having and manager Ozzie's impulsive nature. With about 5 days to think about it, I have no explanation for the Carl Pavano (22nd) pick. I'm assuming at least 10 of the 15 of you chuckled at my expense when that pick came across.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
For pitching, I like Cobwebs, C1-NRB, DaBomb, and ksoze. On offense, I like Smith32, and Species. On balance I would rate darkside, allhair and Cobwebs the co-favorites.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
One big surprise was that there was no real closer run. Closers were taken about when they should have been. A run concerned me pre-draft being on the end and I was determined to get a closer by rd3 just in case.
Unlike others, I was less surprised about the alleged MR run in rounds 12 and 13, because it was really just MBT and Cobwebs picking 2 each at the turn.
Another surprise was how quickly this draft moved. Nice job all!
One thing that did not surprise me, is many of us have played in the RIBC majors, but in the 4 years I have participated (AA, AAA, majors, and back to AAA) I have not noticed any real difference in the competition and draft competence at any of these so-called levels. Everyone in our league has played this format at least once, most all 4 years, so everyone knows what to expect and what they are doing.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Sure, I have buyers remorse on a few picks. Who doesn't? Now looking back at the grid, I said to myself if I known certain guys would have been taken when they were, I may have re-considered taking them earlier (Matsuzaka, Bonds, Neshek) come to mind. I am a little concerned about the starting core I have, but I like my team overall and definitely expect to put up a good challenge
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| 5 | Smith32
ID: 401151818
Fri, Mar 23, 2007, 20:27
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1. Pre-draft strategy
I don't know that I had one, other than to take the best available player and not worry too much about making a "team". That's what trading and the scrap heap are for. I knew that my picks for rounds 3-9 would be from my massive queue, so I guess my strategy was to pray that I didn't horrendously overvalue anyone while I was hurriedly making the queue before my vacation. I also tried to get some interchangeable parts to give my lineup some flexibility.
2. Favorites / Do-overs
Favs: 3.07 A Jones, 7.07 F Cordero, 13.07 Crede, 14.10 Wainwright, 22.10 Polanco.
Do-overs: (wiser choice in parens) 4.10 Cano (4.12 Street), 8.10 Beckett (8.11 Papelbon, 8.15 M Ordonez, 12.12 Arroyo...), 15.07 Pineiro (myself, Hank Aaron, etc.).
3. Teams to watch out for
Species is my pick to win this league, although I have no idea where his wins are coming from. I also like DaBomb's team, if he gets production from his OF. Cobwebs will be strong if Sheets / Harden hold up. JL, as previously mentioned, did well from the 16 hole, Putz's health will be key.
4. Surprises
Price paid for middle relievers. Arroyo lasting as long as he did. That everyone seemed to wait on SPs - we'll see how I fare since I unintentionally went against that trend and took them early. Papelbon becoming the Sox closer... D'oh!
5. Done Differently
Not being on vacation for the key rounds. Focusing on categories that are tough to get (steals and saves) instead of starting pitching. Getting 1 top-tier middle-reliver for WHIP, K/9, and ERA help. The "tier" system I gave allhair for drafting my closers was probably not the best idea, although Cordero was a good pick.
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| 6 | MBT
ID: 21202220
Sat, Mar 24, 2007, 12:32
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1. Draft Strategy
Offense, period. Get the best offensive team that I could assemble during the first 10 rounds and then worry about pitching. Last year I went heavy on pitching early and it worked out OK, but I really think that if I would have focused my hitters instead I would have finished higher. In every league I play in I find that pitchers can be found on the waiver wire. Last year I picked up Arroyo and Saito off waivers among other contributors who really helped my team in those categories. I drafted Weathers and Guardado as my closers last year and I actually feel better about my situation this year after only getting Borowski! I had around 15 SP targeted that I figured I could pick up after round 10 and 8-10 of them were still sitting there when my picks came around. Overall I’d say I followed my initial strategy, but I have no idea if it will work out this season.
2. What were your favorite picks? Do over?
Favorites on my team – 2.15 Carlos Lee, 5.02 Matsui, 22.15 Dustin Pedroia
Favorites on other teams – 12.13 Scott Olsen, 22.11 Bartolo Colon, 16.08 Jonny Gomes, 17.13 J.J. Hardy, 18.02 Jeremy Sowers, 20.16 Chris Iannetta (I had him all Q’d up to go when Da Bomb grabbed him, curses!), 24.14 Clay Hensley (I had him Q’d as well and watched him disappear, double curses!)
Do over – Rounds 13 through 18. Not that I don’t like the guys that I got, I just think that if I would have been drafting those rounds live instead of using one Q for all of those rounds I would have made several of those picks differently. I also think that I have too much depth at OF and not enough in the infield.
3. Which team do you like?
C1-NRB, he has a backup at every position and his pitching solid at both the starting positions and closers. I really like what he did with his late round picks as well.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The early “run” on closers, 14 taken during rounds 3-6. While everyone else was grabbing closers I chose to take Derrek Lee, Troy Glaus, Hideki Matsui and C.C. Sabathia. Maybe I should have jumped in and grabbed a closer during those rounds, but I’d rather have the guys I ended up with in those rounds instead.
One third of the SP taken were taken in the first 9 rounds which also surprised me.
Would you take a pitcher that projects to get 12-15 wins, 9-12 saves, 200+ K’s, a 2.50 ERA and 1.17 WHIP? Well that’s what I got with my three picks in rounds 11-13 with Zumaya, Shields, and Duchscherer. Sure it took me three picks to create my own version of Johan Santana, but I’ll take that risk. I know some people were very surprised by these picks and I actually didn’t intend to take Shields and Duchscherer quite so early but that’s the way it worked out so I’m stuck with those picks.
5. Would you do anything differently?
I would have been available for rounds 13 through 19, but a family vacation was more important.
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| 7 | JL
ID: 16255249
Sat, Mar 24, 2007, 12:37
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I never have a specific strategy because I believe that a rigid plan forces you to reach on picks. So I guess you could say that my plan is to "let the draft come to me" and take the best player available for the most part.
In some ways this works, because it always allows you to get maximum value out of each pick. It has its downside, too...I refused to reach on a second closer or final MI and I finished the draft with no second closer and Aaron Hill as my MI.
I still tell myself that this is the best strategy, though, since we can make up for our deficiencies on the waiver wire during the season.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Zimmerman at 5.16 was a great value pick, as was Haren at 7.16. Frank Thomas could be a steal at 9.16. Jeff Francoeur dropped to 13.16 due to his horrid OBP, but he's a young, improving player that knocked in 100 runs last season. I thought he had a lot of value at that point.
I really believe that Greg Maddux is going to be outstanding in Petco this season, so I was happy to see him available at the end of the 15th. Same with Ian Snell, who I had targeted along with Bonderman, Felix, and Bedard as potential breakout players this summer.
I thought I might have reached just a bit on Putz at 4.01 when I made that pick. Now I really feel bad about it since he's having elbow problems this spring.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Allhair, Weykool, and Species seem to have the most balanced teams.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I guess I was somewhat surprised by the run on set-up men in the middle rounds, but those players have a lot of value relative to other players at that point in the draft. A guy like Scot Shields will throw enough innings to make a significant impact on your ratios and his value has chance to skyrocket is K-Rod gets hurt. Same with Zumaya, Otsuka, Wheeler, Broxton, etc.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I'm disappointed that there was never a right time to take a second closer, but I'm sure I'll find something on the waiver wire eventually. I didn't draft a single closer last year and I managed to finish 4th in AAA.
I love the competition in these leagues. It's difficult to find 16 managers anywhere else that will stay dedicated for the entire season. The beauty of this tiered system(Majors, AAA, AA) is that it keeps everybody interested. If you're in 7th place late in the season with no hope of winning the league, you still care because you're fighting to stay in AAA. I really appreciate having the opportunity to play with 15 other dedicated and knowledgeable managers every year.
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| 8 | darkside
ID: 17237259
Sun, Mar 25, 2007, 15:55
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What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I almost never have a specific strategy when entering a draft. There are usually a few players I target and there are a few positions I may put a bit more value on, but overall I’m not one for trying to stick to a strategy—it’s just too hard. Every draft is completely different. Guys fall at different spots, runs are started in different rounds, etc. In the past I’ve focused much too early on pitching and position scarcity (2B, SS, MI). I wanted some power early because every draft has me at the bottom in SLG and RBI, which was why I took Vlad. I get caught up in the idea of VORP (don’t use the number, just my instinct/gut), so Jeter provided position scarcity, OBP and SB, then a closer, then back to power with Giambi. I don’t like my drat position (15 of 16) because it’s possible to miss out on runs or you find yourself reaching, but I’d say I’m happy with how the draft played out for my team. I missed out on a few players I wanted, but overall I didn’t have to reach too much.
Oh yeah, I LOVE how much position flexibility I have. With multi-position players, Teahen, Lugo, Betemit, and Cuddyer I have lots options if anyone gets hurt. That’s huge.
What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I liked Kazmir at 5.15, Victorino at 16.02, Igawa at 17.15 and Randy Wolf at 24.02. I’d be happier with my Quentin pick if he wasn’t hurt, but I think if it’s not serious that he’ll have been a good pick. Kazmir should (provided healthy which is, of course, the reason he was available here) be one of the best AL pitchers; Victorino may end up stealing 30+ bases which would be huge in the 16th for a guy who doesn’t kill your ratios or counting stats; Igawa and Wolf could really end up boosting my K’s quite a bit, so those are good late round options.
I think I reached for Teahen, but I’m very optimistic about what he’ll do this year and position flexibility is key. I took Lugo earlier than I wanted another MI and am not terribly excited about Cuddyer, but I think both will have reasonable years and their position flexibility also played into my thinking.
Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I’m with Species that MBT had a great run for the first half of the draft, but am not as enamored w/ his second half. I think Cobwebs has a very solid squad—excellent pitching. Both JeffG and Species have excellent teams, but they’ll both be looking up at me come the end of the year!
What surprised you most about the draft?
For some reason I was surprised at how quickly all the 1B I liked were gone. All of sudden only Thome, Konerko and Giambi were left. I think that’s because it seemed like there were a lot, but I simply overestimated. I was also surprised that so many had the same idea of waiting on SP, but I guess I shouldn’t be—we’re all good enough managers to have figured some things out after 4 years of RIBC.
If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I would like a different draft position, but since it wasn’t up to me, I don’t know that fits here. But honestly I’m satisfied with how things went down.
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| 9 | Andrew
ID: 37229223
Mon, Mar 26, 2007, 15:59
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I really wanted to come in with an outline of how I wanted my draft to unfold. I did that a little bit in 2005 and was in first for most of the season before finishing 2nd. Last year I was just kind of winging it and taking value as I saw it and ended up having to fight my way back when I realized that I didn't adequately prepare for inevitable slumps, injuries, fluke seasons etc. It was also tougher competition then the year before, but the draft wasn't too different. This year I came in with a plan. I wanted Utley and a SS in the first 2 rounds and ended up needing a trade to get that acomplished, but as I explained in my rationales, I'd do it again. Then I wanted either Atkins, Vmart or a closer in the 3rd round...and so on. I followed my strategy very carefully through out the draft. I think I was a little strict with it, which caused me to take some guys early, but I feel like I put together a team full of players I like and see doing well.(except Johnny Damon...I dunno why I picked that dumb celebrity caveman) I focused on position scarcity early, but if a real strong CI or Pitcher would have been available at the times I would have taken them. It just didn't really work out that way. I also really focused on young players with a lot of upside, because every year they are undervalued IMHO. Besides, I'd rather have some of them work out and find replacements on the wire for the rest of them, then have a team full of mediocre veterans.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
My favorite picks were Erik Bedard 7.09, Casey Kotchman 18.08, and Jason Kubel 19.09. I think they all will look like steals at the end of the season. I think Bedard is right up there with Harden behind Santana as favorites for the Cy Young. I'd give the edge to Bedard over Harden though because of health. I really like Weaver, Hill and James as well, but Weaver's health and how early I picked the other 2 tempers that excitement.
I don't like my damon pick(4.08) or my Kennedy pick(17.09) because they both seemed like stretches, and I don't particularly like either player that I can be okay with it.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I really like the pitching staff Cobwebs put together, and he has a decent offense. If Josh Johnson and Wang weren't hurt, I'd really like Weykool's team because his Offense is superb and the rest of his staff is pretty solid. Overall though, I think Darkside and Species have the best chances to win this league with the teams they have now.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The aforementioned MR run seemed way to early to me. I was sort of part of it with Gonzalez, but a lot of guys were going way earlier then that. Also, just how many good players seem to go between the 7th and 13th rounds, and then how it just seems to drop off. It happens every year, and yet I never really expect it.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I would have gotten a better chance to get the draft spot I wanted. But really, not much. I would have waited on Hill, and I might have tried to trade my 4th round pick instead of taking Damon. I would have tried to wait on taking Kennedy, and I would have given more thought to my 23rd and 24th round picks then I did. I would have tried harder to get Connor Jackson, Stephen Drew and to a slightly lesser extent Chad Billinglsey.
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| 10 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Mon, Mar 26, 2007, 17:01
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
First off, I’d just like to apologize for not keeping up with the rationales. I was rather busy and was also on vacation during the draft so I didn’t really have the time needed to put together solid rationales, and I felt it was better to scratch them than to put together half-assed rationalizations.
As for the question, I never really go into a draft with a very specific strategy. I feel that it sets you up to miss on some good value during the draft if you are so set on keeping your strategy intact. With that said, I try to focus on OPS for hitters and the ratios for pitchers. I also hate punting a category, so I do my best to be competitive everywhere, specifically with steals and saves.
I feel like I did follow this basic strategy throughout the draft. Hanley Ramirez really needs to come close to duplicating last year’s season for me, and I don’t know if he can. His season last year was far and away better than what he did in the minors. However, if he gives me 50+ SBs, I should be alright in the steals category as I have some other guys who can give me double digit steal totals in Bill Hall, Baldelli, and Gary Matthews. I also came out of the draft with 4 opening day closers (if Weathers is even still the closer now). I am very satisfied I was able to accomplish this without, IMHO, reaching for any one of the four. Usually in a regular 12 team league you can be competitive with drafting only a couple closers as new closers come out during the season ready to be picked up. However, in a league this deep, it is much harder to rely on that strategy as so many closers in waiting are already drafted.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I have a few couple who have the potential to really outperform their draft position in Morgan Ensberg (11.01) and John Patterson (12.16). I also liked picking up Roger Clemens at 18.16. Him in the 18th sounded right as anyone else I had drafted at that point had a great chance of doing nothing for me, so instead I went with someone who can perform a like 2nd to 4th rounder when he does play, if he doesn’t retire that is.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
If I had to switch with any other team, it would probably be with JeffG’s.
4.What surprised you most about the draft?
The MR run was definitely interesting to witness.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
My team is a probably a bit too injury prone, but of course, with taking risks comes the chances for rewards.
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| 11 | Slackjawed Yokel
Leader
ID: 052347519
Mon, Mar 26, 2007, 22:05
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Like others have said, I'm not organized enough to have a strategy. I have tried to build off of my failures and successes (but mainly failures) in past drafts. Some things I've learned are that OF is a very deep position in relation to the infield positions; SP are a crapshoot - that early round pick may get injured or be a bust. And, it's not worth taking a MR early - as I picked the wrong ones last year. Whether the preceding is sound advice or not, that's more or less what I practiced. Although I did use my second round pick on a SP...
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I like Uggla with 9.10, Dunn in the 4th, and the fact I wrapped up two top Saves guys with Nathan in the 3rd and Ray in the 6th.
Looking at my team now, I actually have a number of questionable picks. Oswalt in the 2nd was too early - I had decided on Carpenter, but he went one pick before mine and I decided to get a pitcher anyway. And, of course, Nick Johnson in the 10th was way too early with his injury that somehow I overlooked at the time (I'll blame work for getting in the way).
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Well, I just went through all the teams. Trouble is with a league this deep it seems each team has some holes (mine certainly not excepted). The teams that stood out as being pretty balanced were allhair's, jeffG, cobwebs, and species.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I was surprised how fast Species got us all to draft.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I'm wondering if it's time I re-visit my strategy. We'll see how this draft works out for me. But I'm thinking my second round pick would've been better spent on best hitter available - maybe Jason Bay whom I had considered at the time. My reticence to draft OF's early is probably a mistake. As it stands now, I'll have to have multiple players really play up to their potential (I'm thiking Delmon Young, Mike Jacobs, BJ Upton, AJ Burnett, etc) for me to be competitive.
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| 12 | loki
SuperDude
ID: 4211201420
Mon, Mar 26, 2007, 23:25
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I want to preface my recap with the mea culpa that my 2 fingers type very slowly, and therefore my recap will be more abbreviated than I would like.
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I used a very basic strategy of first looking for hitting, then looking to fill positions with fewer quality players, holding off on SPs until mid draft, and not taking a RP until late in the draft. I also emphasized speed in my draft.
For the most part I was able to follow this plan with the exception of not being able to resist Houston Street in the 4th round. My strategy was modified because during the draft I had the major distractions of my computer crashing, my office getting incredibly busy, and my daughter being hospitalized with asthma( she's home and doing better now).
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I liked Adran Beltre because I think he will a season nearly as good as 2004, Sammy Sosa because I followed his spring training as he went from a non-roster player to a probable starter, and Dodger rookie James Loney who could be a strong ROY candidate if given the chance to start.
There are no picks that I would like to do over, but I do wish that I had chosen Nick Markakis.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I cannot really say which teams have the best chance to do well this year. My feeling is that the teams that will finish near the top are those without injuries to their key players as well as those teams that get unexpected production from players chosen towards the end of the draft, i. e., "sleepers."
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
How smoothly and quickly the draft progressed.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I feel that my team is weakest in power production and in RPs, and I would have tried to address these weaknesses.
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| 14 | allhair allstars
Sustainer
ID: 50902421
Mon, Mar 26, 2007, 23:59
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Quite simply, my plan was to come in, kick ass, and leave everyone crying. As it was, I honestly felt like I was scrambling the entire draft. As I've mentioned before (and if my team ends up blowing this year, you'll hear it a lot more) I was up to my ears in a project at work that completely sucked the life out of me during this draft. Also, for the record, as a rule I dislike drafts where my fellow managers steal all the guys on my draft queue, so in that regards I practically hate most of you.
I much prefer to draft on the ends (either, don't care) of a snake, and I tried to get cute and pick a middle slot. Never again. When I'm on the turn I always feel like I can draft aggressively - two picks in a row or close to each other always seems to clarify my thinking. Drafting in the middle forced me to spend what little time I had reworking my queues and pondering how I could right my ship.
As for executing my plan, I'd have to say no. Reading some of previous manager summaries, many seem to think I have a well-balanced team. It's my thinking that my defensive drafting created that quality. Time will tell if that balance helps or not, but I will say I'm buoyed by the positive vibe! :)
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Favorite picks? Using Guru’s Draft Consolidation data, I looks like I was the latest one to get Matsuzaka and Zambrano, which is kinda cool. Rios, one of my favorite picks, was nearly three rounds after the average pick. Went a touch early on a bunch of players (esp Jennings, Billingsly). Right now I’m really groovin’ on the Izzy pickup at 8.09, and Irod 14.09, not because they were steals, but because I think they might both pan out really well for me.
I’d like to do over a number of picks… I’d like that Smith32 didn’t take Utley at 1.07 or Tejada at 2.08, for example… But as far as my own team goes… hindsight is 20-20, but Figgins being down for 5-6 weeks is a bite in the ass. I wish I hadn’t gone with Sexson as my primary 1B, and most of my last 7 picks were somewhat uninspired.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I like Cobwebs and JL's teams. Looking back over my team, I really think it’s better off than I originally felt, but having Figgins go down is big hole to dig out of. There are lots of well drafted teams – it’s always fun in these bigger leagues to see how people try to compose their teams… where managers look like they’re trying to corner markets for trade bait, or compensating for perceived weaker players, etc… In the end, I think there are no teams that are really poorly comprised (I’d expect no less from this group)… I love you all!
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I was pretty surprised by the overall speed of the draft. We really kicked through this pretty quickly – kudos to all involved. Also surprised by the obscene amount of writing required by this damn league. I’m fairly certain that at some point in the season Species is going to require some type of essay writing assignment… “How I spent my All-Star Break” or “The State of the Team”, or something along those lines. Surprised at how late a lot of pitchers went, and how many times the guy in front of me actually picked my pocket.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I would have taken the draft pick given to me instead of being cute and actually selecting a later pick. Quick, someone come over here and kick me in the ass! I don’t really regret it, but I probably would not have taken two pitchers in the first 5 rounds. If I could do it again, I’d probably quit my job (or at least fake a broken leg or something) so that I could have devoted more time to the draft.
Again, thanks to all for making the draft very enjoyable. Props to Species for keeping things moving along, and to JeffG (et al., if in fact there are others) that helped out with the rationale thread. I look forward to the season ahead.
Now, who wants to trade me a second baseman?
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| 15 | ksoze
Leader
ID: 04619323
Wed, Mar 28, 2007, 16:18
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Entering the draft I planned to stay relatively caught up with my rationales yet be the last to post my recap. I very nearly succeeded but my impatience wins out and I'm posting now. Other then that, I really just planned on building a balanced team. I usually look for OBP and I generally don't take more then one SP over the first five or six rounds. So, of course Carl Crawford falls to me at the 11th pick because his OBP is typically low and then I can't resist taking both Carpenter and Peavy in rounds 2 and 3. Normally I don't start trying to fill needs by the fourth round but I figured I'd better do so this time... I don't like to draft guys who are only eligible at "UTIL" but felt I had to take Thome and his OPS there. At this point I started talking to myself. "Plans," I said, "meet the window. It's time to start filling needs."
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I don't think I really regret any of my picks or want to do them over, well, except for the fact that I forgot Youkilis was eligible at 3B when I was looking for one in the 10th round. Fortunately for me E. Encarnacion is going to totally outperform Youk in slugging and SB thereby making my regret look silly. Since this draft, especially the beginning, went much different for me then I expected, I'm curious to see how the team performs. Either it'll be a learning experience, or it'll do well... and be a learning experience.
Kendrick at 8.06 could be huge if the Angels hit him in the 2 spot, Markakis at 9.11, Wheeler at 13.11 (Lidge is going to bomb!), and maybe Prior at 23.11 are my favorite picks, or at least have the potential to become my favorites depending on performance.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Species (except for that Lidge pick in the 6th round, C1-NRB and allhair are probably up there as my likely picks to move up the the majors next season, though I have to say I think this league is very well balanced and the difference in points between 1st and 16th at the end of the season will be closer then other RIBC leagues.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The MR run was pretty early in my opinion. And, of course, everyone takes closers before I bother to, though I'm not sure that surprises me, it just causes me to take chances on RP's that I might not go for otherwise late in the draft (Reyes!). The pace of the draft was nice and fast, very seldomly did I notice any kind of an irritating hold up.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Well, if I knew then what I know now I might have opted for DirecTV instead of Dishnetwork five years ago, though DirecTV wasn't offering the free installation package like Dish at the time. As for the draft? Nope. Like I said, this was quite a learning experience since I went in many different directions that I probably wouldn't have planned on normally, my curiosity in how the team will play out over the season is peaked. My thanks for a great draft to everyone and I hope to see just two others of you (unless another is bumped up out of necessity) in the majors next year.
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| 16 | Cobwebs
Sustainer
ID: 058358241
Sun, Apr 01, 2007, 09:46
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
This was a new experience for me picking so close to the end, so I didn’t really know what to expect. I didn’t want to reach a lot, but I also didn’t want to pick players that I didn’t like, and it took some time to adapt. When I missed out on Reyes and Rollins, I tried to focus on 20/20 players, not sacrificing SLG for SB, and favouring players with good OBP and potential to improve. As expected I was going to be on the back end of a closer run, and when I missed out on getting a decent 2nd closer, I decided to target stud middle relievers that had a good chance of closing before the seasons end, MBT was in the same boat and seamed to have the same strategy, and I can understand that it looked strange when they were picked so close together in rounds 12-13.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
There weren’t many players that fell onto my lap, but 18.14 Wes Helms, 20.14 Kelly Johnson, and 24.14 Clay Hensley felt like they hade slipped a bit and I was getting good value. I also like getting 8.14 Mike Piazza, who I feel can be just as good as Mauer and V-Mart this season. I’m very happy at getting both 5.03 Ben Sheets and 7.03 Rich Harden to anchor my pitching.
17.03 Zach Duke sticks out as an ugly wart that I’d like to get rid of, I was tired and dazed when I made that pick, but done is done and it could still work out. Also 6.14 Josh Barfield was a long reach, and looking further at his stats last year, he really only had one good month, and putting that much faith on a player with not much of a track record but on a good line-up is a little too risky, I smell a bust, should have gone with Weeks instead.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Every team has its strengths and weaknesses, and all will be competitive. But if I had to pick my favourites, it would be loki, allhair, Species, darkside, JL, and jeffg.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
At first I was confused by MBT picking 5 OFs in a row, but then I realized that he was on vacation and the picks must have been made from his Q. The Pudge pick also surprised me but reading the rationale made things clearer. The Mathis pick had me also scratching my head, especially since Napoli was undrafted, but I guess nothing should surprise me in round 24.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I would probably have chosen to pick closer to the middle, then maybe I would have been able to start with a Ortiz/Hafner, Rollins/Tejada combo, and also having a good chance of getting 2 solid closers.
Maybe I should have played it a little safer and not picked so many injury proned players, but half the fun is taking risks.
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