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0 Subject: RIBC AAA PCL draft rationale holding thread

Posted by: Khahan
- [46121614] Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 09:30

Since so many of us seem to be behind on our rationales I thought I would just start a hlding thread for them. If you can post your rationale in order in the regular thread DO NOT POST HERE. This thread is only for those of us who are behind
1Khahan
      ID: 46121614
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 10:46
5.16 Daisuke Matsuzaka SP, Bos

I had taken Cole Hamels before and wanted somebody who could really help prop up the K's and W's category for me. Last season I kind of ignored pitching during the draft and paid dearly for it in AA (only a mid-season trade let me slip into the top7 to advance to AAA).

Daisuke should be good for 200+ K's and 15-18 W's. I also think his ERA/Whip will have improved over last season. With Hamels and Dice-K I feel comfortable going into the season.

6.01 Vernon Wells, OF Tor
I think my team is sink or swim this year. I expect a nice bounce back from a healthy Vernon Wells. In the neighborhood of a .500 Slg and a modest .340-.350 OBP. But I'm also looking for a steals total in the teens as well as c. 90 runs and rbi's. Nice compliment to the hitting corps I feel I'm developing and a solid OF.


7.16/8.01 Jose Valverde RP Hou, Matt Capps, RP Pit

Last year I almost completely tanked in S. Of course the only closer I drafted lost his job and turned into a bum for a good bit of the season. I figured this year I would secure 2 solid closers who can wrack up 60 S between them and work the waiver wire or late pick fliers for the rest. I have a list of 'acceptable closers' and at this point it was shrinking fast. I feared a closer run and decided to finish the need for this category now.

9.16 Dan Uggla, 2nd Flo
Time to fill in roster spots. Uggla hit more HR than any other 2nd baseman last year. He was top 100 ranked player and this was pick #144. What's there not to like? Ok, his OBP is low and despite all those HR his SLG is below .500. But then again, its not terrible.

10.01 Jeremy Hermida, OF Flo
Talk about sink or swim. There are 3 hitters on this team worth having and I'v got the 2 lesser ones. If one struggles they all probably struggle. But Hermida is projected for an OBP around .370 and I need help in that category.

11.16 Carlos Delgado 1st(ci) NYM
Ok, so he went and got himself injured more. He should be ready for Opening Day. He's aging and declining but that is a dnyamite team. He should help wth my OBP and rbi's.

12.01 Jarrod Saltalamacchia C Tex
Seemed to be the best catcher available and one of the better players out there. I felt Salty + next best hitter later was better than the current best hitter and the next catcher available.

13.16 Jeremy Bonderman, SP, Det
Ron Shandlers analysis of Bonderman shows he should be back on track this year. He has a high probability to improve on his whip/era. He can strike out a good number of guys and with that offense behind him, even if his era hovers around 4.00 he should win a bunch.
2I hate Philadelphia
      ID: 1111879
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 12:22
5.08 Brad Hawpe, OF, COL

I was trying to decide here between grabbing a pitcher or going offense. If I went offense Hawpe was my obvious choice as I thought about him with my last pick. I decided there were still a lot of good pitching options out there so I decided to go with Hawpe hoping that Chris Young or Roy Oswalt would fall to me. If not I was ready to take the next best closer on the board.

Hawpe should help me in slugging, OBP, runs and RBI. I only hope that this year he can show a little more consistency than he has in the past.
3Nerfherders
      ID: 501035289
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 13:57
10.16 Kaz Matsui, 2B HOU

I needed some more speed and there wasn't much left to pick from. If Kaz can come anywhere close to the numbers he had last year he will be okay - I basically just need him for steals.
4Nerfherders
      ID: 501035289
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 14:02
11.01 Yunel Escobar, SS ATL

After the SS I wanted went off the board in the 6th I decided to wait and get Yunel later. I could not wait any longer. Escobar has a chance to be a special player and I project something like 100 55 10 .350 .420. Not much worse than the man he is replacing. In addition, he will qualify at 2B and 3B so he will have quite a nice utility role when needed.
5Nerfherders
      ID: 501035289
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 14:07
12.16 Adam LaRoche, 1B PIT

The one glaring hole in my lineup at this point was 1B where it didn't seem like anyone was falling to me. LaRoche picked it up in the second half and actually had a solid season. He will never be studly, but if he can go 70 90 .350 .450 I will be happy. I will just have to ride out the cold streaks.
6Nerfherders
      ID: 501035289
      Tue, Mar 11, 2008, 14:12
13.01 Aaron Rowand, OF SF

I am not real high on Rowand this year but I think he will at least bring value at this point in the draft. He played way above his head last year and obviously was not in the 3rd/4th round class where he performed at. I am thinking 90 90 5 .370 .470 this year which isn't bad at all. He is all SF has got so he might not get the R and RBI that he should.
7Toral
      ID: 575542418
      Wed, Mar 12, 2008, 14:08
4.12 John Smoltz, SP, Atl

At about this time I like to grab a draft ace if there's a pitcher out there who holds any value. Smoltz is 40 which would scare some off. But his K/9 ratio has been going up, not down, the last few years, and K/9 ratio is a better predictor of future longevity than age. I'd like to see him get in 215 innings with 195 Ks and 16 wins. I'm more worried about the muscle pulls and strains which hit the 40+ than about arm trouble. I trust Smoltz more than the other SP possibilities here, Beckett, Verlander, Zambrano and Lackey.

5.05 Joe Nathan, RP, Min

The 5th round is here and with Papelbon, Putz, and Saito gone it's time to grab a solid closer and set off a full-scale closer one. Last RIBC league I was in the run began at the end of round 3 and solid closers have basically been stripped by the time it got down to be the end of round 4, so I figure it must be possible to get a run going now.

Nathan should be able to put up 40 saves with a sub-2 ERA and more than qa K per IP. By my reckoning he's the end of the first tier of closers, although others might put Rivera or F-Rod in there as well.

6.12 Huston Street, RP, Oak

This was a queueing mistake; I had a bunch of closers lined up for my 5th round pick and forgot to make my queue unavailable after I secured Joe Nathan in Round 5 and Street was still sitting there. I was a little distressed at this but after more consideration it probably worked out OK. RIBC leagues are hard to pick up emerging closers in and I wanted to start with 2 solid ones. If I had queued up properly, I probably would have picked up Roy Oswalt, who ended up going just before my 7th round pick; but I'm just as satisfied with Billingsley.
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