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Subject: 2009 RIBC AAA Int'l - Draft Recap and Rationales
Posted by: JeffG
- Leader [01584348] Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 15:15
draft discussion
kafenatid draft result
This is entirely optional.
Taking the text from RIBC:
RIBC AAA International Managers: This thread is for overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say.
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Non-managers are also encouraged to post comments.
Since we did not do a running rationale for this league, you can also feel free to put any specific rationales for any specific picks, or why you chose the draft position you did in this thread.
Please have some fun with this and feel free to add any other comments, predictions, praise, insults (not too mean), and anything else that will add to entertainment value of this conversation, and maybe even spark some rivalries or smack talk. |
| 1 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 16:58
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I had two new strategies this year.
1. Use Rotowire's fancy software to help track my draft.
2. Get David Wright.
I'm not kidding. Wright was the player I had my eye on the whole time, and when the third pick landed in my lap, I was ecstatic. Many RIBC managers spend too much time focusing on the 2nd round of the draft; this time I focused on the 1st and 3rd rounds, and I'm happy with the results.
In addition to Wright, Markakis and Roberts were two guys I'm very high on for this year. At that point, the draft was going swimmingly.
I almost got Adam Dunn at pick #4. That would have been perfect, but Granderson is almost as good.
After that, it got shallow quick. Some of my better picks: 8 Cust, 13 Giambi, 14 Myers, and 22 Masterson. We'll see how it plays out, but I like my team.
Other teams I like are from Tosh, JeffG, and R9, and I have fosten, pete, gurudan, kev, joe, and khahan as my last six. Mach is certainly the one manager I plan to make fun of the most.
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| 2 | Nerfherders
ID: 310111515
Thu, Mar 26, 2009, 18:08
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1. I had a whole new strategy for my drafts. In the past I would have a sheet full of every player's previous season's stats. This year I paid no attention to past performance unless it was a tie-breaker. I think it worked well.
2. favorite picks: Upton, Vazquez, Reynolds, Weaver, and perhaps Byrnes. The only players I had to reach for were MI, almost every time. Those positions are so shallow you almost have to reach to get someone who isn't going to kill you. The pick I'd rather do over is Crain, because I could have gotten him in 25th but thought Nomar was going to get back to me. It wasnt until the 24th and 25th picks that I had my player taken from me.
3. I have no control over what other teams are doing so I don't worry about it. We shall see!
4. Nothing really surprises me about these drafts anymore. Managers here have had success and are usually on their game.
5. Can't think of anything in particular I'd want to do over, except perhaps be a guru donor (then I would be in RIBC, but that is a discussion for another thread).
I didn't really have much choice in my draft position - not sure how one makes a rule to get a specific top-5 player when draft position is completely random. Anyways, I had Tex and Berkman even steven, along with Santana, but I never take a pitcher in the first round, and Tex was taken a spot before me, so Berkman it was. I notice he usually doesn't go as high as I took him, but he is as good as anyone not in the top 5, imo.
Upton was somewhat of a steal, as I saw him go in the first round in some drafts. I think he will combine is SB of last year with his HR of 2007 and be a true 5-tool player. His injury doesnt really concern me yet.
Haren and K-Rod were pretty much on-target. I wasn't expected to take Votto 5th but there he was, the best player out there on my board. I was surprised to see him go even earlier in other drafts.
I reached a bit for Johnson but he's a good pick - the first of the second tier of 2B.
I am expecting big things from Vazquez this year. Moving to the NL, and more of a pitcher's park. I got him at a great slot.
I reached again for Theriot, but again I needed a SS and he was the last of that tier.
Reynolds and Posada were also the last of their tiers. I really wanted Iannetta but he went too early. Hopefully Posada will be healthy, and then he will be fine.
Drew was at least 30 spots higher than anyone on the board at any position, so I had to take him, even though I dont like his injury history.
I was a little surprised to still see Byrnes there so late in the draft. I have projected pretty well so I had to take him. Considering potential early season injuries to my OF, he might get right into my lineup.
My pitching staff came together pretty well, with 6 RP's to keep the percentages down and cycling through the SP's. I'm hoping Devine and Hoffman pan out as my second and third closers.
My offense is built for speed, OBP, and runs. RBI and SLG will be at a bit of premium but not bad by any means.
Last year I had some late round picks that did exceptionally well and it got me to 4th place in a league where if we played one more day every place in the top 5 could have been reversed. But I feel my early part of the draft was not so good, and I made up for it with in-season moves that payed off. This year I came in with a new perspective not to waste picks early and have to rely on late-round steals to have a good season. We shall see how it all pans out.
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| 3 | R9
Leader
ID: 02624472
Fri, Mar 27, 2009, 03:46
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1. My only plan was what I always try to do: Take 5-category guys early, then go by best available. I usually avoid position runs, because by the time you spot one you are left drafting a player too early more often then not. Too, drafting on an end pretty much reduced the odds that I'd be in the middle of a run.
2. I like to grade my picks based on what all RIBC managers think, and one way to do that is to see the relative draft positions of the guys I took compared to when they went in the other 4 drafts. In that regard, my favorite picks were:
1. Carlos Guillen (drafted 17 picks later than the RIBC average)
2. Mike Lowell (26 picks later)
3. Elijah Dukes (44 picks later)
4. Franc Liriano (20 picks later)
5. Wandy Rodriguez (26 picks later)
6. Chad Qualls (17 picks later)
7. Randy Wolf (36 picks later)
My worst picks under that analysis were:
1. Nick Johnson (drafted 32 picks sooner than the RIBC average)
2. Luis Castillo (76 picks sooner) !!!!
3. Carpenter (21 picks sooner)
4. Harang (34 picks sooner)
5. Rauch (21 picks sooner)
my favorite picks just because are probably David Ortiz (3), Cameron (16), Dukes (13), Guillen (9) and my 1st 4 SP's Liriano (6), Carp (11), Harang (12), Wandy (17). A power bat like Ortiz shouldn't slip, even though he did in every draft. The other hitters are all 5-cat guys who were drafted after guys who will be lucky to perform equally in 4 of the 5 cats. The SP's I feel will compete strongly in W's, K's, and ERA vs. SP staffs drafted much earlier on. WHIP might be an issue, but thats what the 5 RP's are for.
Wasted picks are probably Duchscherer (19) and Castillo (18). Duch I'd bet alot of $ on goes under the knife soon enough, and Castillo I probably could've grabbed in round 25. Don't really know what I was thinking when I took him.
3. I was slightly Rotowire-biased, so its no surprise that hen and I like each others' teams. He took alot of the guys I wanted (Cust, Cain, Loney, Giambi, Fontenot, Balfour and Masterson were all at the top of my queue when he took them) and he just has a very well-rounded team. A bit short in SP arms, but thats something thats always available off the wire.
Also like Pete's team, though his pen is weak. Most of the other teams that seem solid all drafted most/all of their MI before round 12 or so. Would love to go back to past year's results and see if there's any connection there.
4. Only real surprise was how fast everyone was. We waited a bit on a couple guys around mid-day with some regularity, but they were in the middle (had to check in twice as often as us end guys did) and during middle of work was understandable. Otherwise there were no delays at all. GJ guys!
5. I would've drafted Castillo later, or not at all! So many guys that I wanted went in rounds 18/19 after I took him at 18.01. Ugh.
Extra: I'm not going to mention the teams that I think are weakest, but unlike previous years where it seemed like a ton of teams all drafted well, I'll go on record as saying I think there is a clear bottom tier right now. Injuries can change anything of course, but I think a good 6-7 managers will need to be abnormally lucky with FA's/injuries to have a shot.
Last year's PCL AAA had 5 teams all within 3-4 pts of each other the last two months. We traded places everyday, we all took turns at the top several times each, and I just hope we have a similarly competitive league again this year.
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| 4 | JeffG
Leader
ID: 01584348
Fri, Mar 27, 2009, 12:16
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My strategy is pretty consistent with how I handle the RIBC draft every year: Keep an eye on my target consolidated numbers that I set pre draft for my team; take the best draft position avaliable in the pre-draft; draft hitting eyeing the percentage categories, and try to avoid steal specialists who will hurt those numbers; don't forget to get a 2B and SS even if there are better players on my chart to avoid bottom feeding all season. On the pitching side: Draft pitching figuring saves come off the table by round 8 to avoid chasing all year; don't over-worry about K guys which is sometimes more a function of playing near the max IP; and don't forget about WHIP guys late.
I'm never satisfied that I executed the strategy as planned, but think I did ok, or better than ok. Sabathia was not in my plans for taking a starting pitcher in rd 2 given that I'd be satisfied with any one of the top 8 or 9 ranked SP, and the guy I was eyeing (in addition to Carlos Lee who was just snatched), Markakis was available at 2.11, but when CC was available at that spot I impulsively went for it. I'll always feel like my SS/2B combo were reaches (Tulo 6.11, Kendrick 8.11) but know that not reaching will have harsher consequences. I feel like the mid round hitting production guys I took (Bradley 12.11, Konerko 13.06, Helton 15.06) are certainly classic draft day "risk/reward" options and my fate may very well hang on what those three aging players have left in the tank. Some of the late round MR WHIP guys I was targeting at various points in the later rounds did not make it to me, but I am overall satisfied with the mix of pitchers I ended up with.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I'm very happy with Youk at 3.06 who with 3B eligibility definitlely is the last of the tier before a real drop off at that position, should put up numbers similar to the trio of 3B drafted in rd 3 (Longoria, Ari Ramirez, and 80% of ARod), I like the upside of McLouth at 4.11, and have high hopes for the aformentioned mid round hitting troika.
Any of my round 18 picks and on are crap shoots. I did not pull the trigger earlier for my MI slot and have Iwamura (19.06) who hopefully won't suck too much out of the averages but who won the coin toss over my other choice at that slot Freddy Sanchez (taken 18 picks later). My 9.06 pick of catcher Ionatta was taken in that catcher abyss of rounds 6-12 where the few stud catchers were long gone and the late round flyers are still going to stay undrafted for a bit longer. I was on the fence about my Ianetta pick (9.06). At that point I really was not even looking at catcher, but when I looked at my board for the other positions, no one was screaming out as a standout, and as I now in retrospect look back at the 36 or so picks from 9.06 on until my round 11 choice, I think it was still a reach but I don't feel like I let anyone slip by,
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I decided to try to stimulate more conversation. So, lets have some fun: Here is my quick take on all 15 other teams, I do not think anyone in the history of RIBC has done this before. I'll be focusing on something negative about each team since it is hopefully taken all in fun. I'll throw a Paula Abdul like statement at each of you too so you feel better when you read it. Likley you guys should be able to make me eat my words later this season. I have not fed anyones roster into any sort of draft calculator so I'm just doing this by feel.
Tequila - mostly solid safe picks early but not real strong with the CI guys. Not a great bottom half of the draft. No one after round 14 will be on anyone's fantasy roster at season end.
Tosh - I thought he did a good job with grabbing the last remnants of the 2B SS 3B tiers before the fall off that should keep him in the upper mix, but may suffer with production numbers because of it, especially with OF. The problem with taking 2b and SS in rounds 4 and 5 is they are very easy to second guess because there are better producers out there in other positions.
Blue Hen - I think he and Fosten clearly had the best 'bottom 6 rounds' of the draft. They were the only guys who picked players who were on my boards. I differ with his high expecations of Giambi and Escobar, and think that the 18th round is still too early to pick a non regular who will likely be fighting all season for playing time (Swisher). I'll also admit I like the pitching staff he assembled. Could contend. He definletly led the draft in most disparaging bird puns being referred to as, by the other managers. My favorite: "Chicken Boy".
Athletics Guy - Speaking of pitching, perhaps hands down the best pitching staff in the league. Of course this comes perhaps at the expense of the offense. Looking at his hitters as a whole, he may have the toughest time offensively.
Fosten - They guys one either side of you in draft position usually take the guys off your board right before your turn or pick the other guy you were thinking about right after you go. Oddly, Fosten did not start doing that until the late rounds (Sonnastine and Teahen were both picked right before I was up). For most of the draft we were definitely on different wavelengths, not that I have any better ranking strategy.
GoldCoach - Props for pretty much having every round queued up. He did not put a priority on pitching early and sometimes there is such a glut of similar guys you can get value in the later rounds. We'll see how that plays out.
PeteN - I liked his team at the mid point when the draft was going on and he seemed to have selected some of the guys I was eyeing (for what that is worth). hen says bottom 6 for Pete, but I'll say top 6. The only thing working against him breaking into the top may be the pitching averages.
RoboGuru - He has the most overlap with the key hitters from my 2008 RIBC team, so I like his offense. Did I mention I came in 11th with that hitting core last season? As for pitching, after Halliday, I am not feeling his pitching staff.
Nerfherders - Another team I thought did real well on tier management. I also think he did a good job balancing pitching with good guys to solidify WHIP and ERA. Berkman is a good solid player but going at position 10 was the most second-guess-able top-25 selection of our draft.
Joe - The only guy who did not post in our draft discussion, so I can say anything and not worry about return-fire here ;). From mid-May and on, barring injuries, you will not find another team who can claim they have a better top-2 than Joe's Howard and ARod. Also he has my favorite player, Mariano Rivera, who I usually avoid drafting because of the knowledge my unwavering idolation of Mo has to make my biased. Otherwise, Joe's team is....um, uh, how do I say this kindly... a trainwreck. (again just my opinion, and maybe I am just doing it to get him to respond, or maybe not).
dpr - another team that I really liked how it was coming together early in the draft. At the time I thought he took care of the position scarcity columns 2b ss c 3b early, (but then Huff became his 1B so I take a part of that statement back), Lucky that Utley only fell to his lap at 12th because of his medical status. I'm going to call him the co-front runner for the league title. Was thankful he took Aardsma in round 23 because after two weeks, I got sick of seeing Aardsma's name on the top of the 'set your queue' page.
gurudan - Holds the distinction of being the first RIBC manager who went on the DL while drafting, and kidding aside, hope he has recovered from his injuries. One positive about this team is the lack of Pirates, sans one homer. Another team that I just do not feel, but to answer the expected reply, no, I would not put any money behind that statement.
Kev - I really don't know what to make of this team. Could be top-4 (seriously), could be bottom-4. Hamilton is a first rounder, but after his 2008 fall off after a great start, I personally would not want to pin too much on a variable that early. The one thing that will kill him is the stats-draining middle infielders without a decent 1B to offset.
khahan - Another team that could be top-4 as easily as bottom-4 based on how things fall. I'm not sure what to make of the SP, he has several high-expectation guys who if everything falls right would make it a heck of a staff, but with a bottomless downside from the back end of his rotation Joba, Cueto, Pelfrey. (trying to be objective, fan-wise I love Joba)
R9 - There is not much to criticize on this team, other than perhaps could use a little help in the SP area. Alot of the MR WHIP and ERA guys found their way to this roster. Sometimes two MR can equal the prodiction of a second-tier SP. I did not mutter 'lousy pick' very often with his team, but then again, he did have a big one when he took Luis Castillo. He is my other co-front-runner.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
After doing this format for I think 5 years, not much. Pretty much held form. I guess the only thing that surprised me is that I stayed up late Thursday night writing an analysis of all the other teams.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I'm actually very satisfied with the overall team I ended up with. For once I bordered on conservative with some of my choices, I stayed away from injury risks with my top-10 positions, in the past I have taken some more risks.
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| 5 | Goldcoach
ID: 893426
Fri, Mar 27, 2009, 12:34
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Twofold 1) Take the best player on the board re of position for 6 rounds 2) Disregard closer runs
Re premise 1) I deviated and reached a bit for Alexei Ramirez in round 4 although his upside and two position eligibility (soon) helped me. We learned about Mauer’s back (round 5) too late so I was forced to pick a second C (Salty in Round 23) to start the season which made me loose a bench spot.
Premise 2) I almost panicked and deviated when the second “run” began but I fought the impulse and picked my RPs in rounds 9,13,and 19. I ended up with Cordero, Ziegler, and Franklin all projected to start as closers at the beginning of the year. Ziegler and Franklin will probably lose their roles as the season progresses.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Favorite picks Verlander in round 14, Adam Jones in 15, and Brad Penny in round 22. Do over: Mauer in round 5 given his heath issues. I would have passed on him and tried for Doumit or Snyder (he was in my queue when he got picked) in later rounds.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Best Team: I give the preseason nod to Athletics Guy. His only weak position is MI I don’t think Nomar will get enough at bats to help much and I don’t see who else he can plug in. Joe is close runner-up but how long will A-rod be out?
Cellar Dweller: BlueHen. I think he reached too deep for Giambi, Cust and Swisher; he could have gotten them in latter rounds IMHO and used those picks for better pitching. I only see three quality starters (King Felix, Cain and Myers ) although they are first rate, I don’t see them carrying the season. I foresee waiver wire or trades for him.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I do not want to be sandwiched between JeffG or PeterN again. They picked my queue almost every time; especially in the early rounds. Either they’re dumb, or I’m getting better ( yeah I know what you’re going to say!)
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I’m a little uneasy about my lack of power. Otherwise I’m comfortable with how my draft went. Now let’s play ball!
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| 6 | Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Fri, Mar 27, 2009, 19:33
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
You can only do so much when you're at the turn. Pick one - Pick the guy most useful to me that Tequila was most likely to take. Pick two - Pick the guy most useful to me that won't be there in 30 picks.
Generally - I wanted to fill 2B/SS fairly early. At least make sure I get a top-8 player at each position. Try to draft players that will get me 10+ SBs (not done successfully). Try not to get any #4/5 SPs onto my roster.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I've never had Pujols before. So I'm kind of excited about that. I had a short moment of confusion where I was considering Reyes instead of Pujols, but I resisted. I like Morales at 18.15. The rest of my players are all right, but nobody is super sexy.
I'm not really happy with my Mariner selections. Ichiro is great, but it's a classic case of homer-ism. Beltre was just a case of me being rushed at work. I could have found someone better at that point I'm sure.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I see a five team race for the title. Nerfherders, dpr, JeffG, Blue Hen, and me. Athletics Guy and Tequila want to compete. Good luck to everyone.
4. What surprised you most about the draft? - Nada
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Organize my planning process better. I had top player lists from rotowire, rotoworld, cbs, yahoo, and espn. I had projections from three sources. And the program I was using to manage all my drafts (Diamond Draft) was not compatible with my work computer. I needed to combine all my lists into one master list.
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| 7 | Peter N.
ID: 4910362617
Mon, Mar 30, 2009, 18:53
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I'm not gonna lie. I pretty much did this year's draft on the fly. Generally speaking, I like to go big on hitters early as they seem to be easier to predict and less injury-prone. I felt like I did a good job of balancing speed and power. Besides Francoeur, I don't have anyone that is going to kill me in obp so I'm happy with that as well. I usually struggle to compete in SBs, but Ellsbury and Rollins should give me a fighting chance.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
My favorite picks were Edinson Volquez(6.09) and Felipe Lopez(13.08) If I could do over a pick, I would've drafted a closer in the 7th instead of Delgado.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Two teams stand out. Most likely because they both seemed to pick my queue everytime they had a chance. Those two teams are Roboguru and R9. Several times Roboguru took the top guy in my queue right before it was my turn to pick. Also, it seemed like R9 was guaranteed to take at least one guy off my queue when he came up. Both teams are solid and will be a force.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
It shouldn't surprise me, but I am continually amazed at how brutal these drafts are. This is, once again, another tough RIBC league and the competition should be fierce.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I eluded to it earlier. The one regret I have is not going closer sooner. That is a glaring weakness for me and I have to hope Street wins the job in Colorado and Gonzalez stays healthy in Atlanta. Wilson and Izzy were grabbed late to try and vulture a few saves. However, I'm not sure if they'll be worth it. They would likely be my first cuts
It looks like we have a solid group of managers. My only goal is to finish ahead of blue hen...which shouldn't be too hard.
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