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Subject: RIBC Texas League Draft Recap Posted by: wolfer - [11401720] Tue, Mar 30, 2010, 20:35 This thread is for overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say. 1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? 2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over? 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? 4. What surprised you most about the draft? 5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently? Non-managers are also encouraged to post comments. Since we did not do a running rationale for this league, you can also feel free to put any specific rationales for any specific picks, or why you chose the draft position you did in this thread. Please have some fun with this and feel free to add any other comments, predictions, praise, insults (not too mean), and anything else that will add to entertainment value of this conversation, and maybe even spark some rivalries or smack talk. | |||||||
| 1 | Seattle Zen Leader ID: 055343019 Tue, Mar 30, 2010, 21:02 |
I am going to list the round and pick, then list what number that pick was in our draft, followed by the place that player was drafted in RIBC, International AAA and the PCL AAA drafts. So it’s Sunday and six picks are off the board – I love Prince Fielder in this format, nice pick, C1. I’m leaving for a hike with the family and there are three picks before me and only three players I really want – Joe Mauer, Ryan Howard and Teixieria. We are climbing to some hot springs in Olympic National Park with our three year old, we brought the jog stroller. There’s a light mattering of snow on the paved trail at the bottom. As we climb, the snow gets deeper and deeper, the little one is asleep in the stroller which I am pushing up the trail like it’s a blocking sled. It starts to rain. Just before we get there, I start getting afraid that the three players I want will fall off the board and I think I have Matt Kemp next on my queue, but I really don’t want him – not sold on him at all. After about an hour and half of hiking two miles, we give up and head back down, just as three hot chicks head to the hot springs, damn! I had better not get stuck with Kemp after all of this! I’m pleased with Mauer because he ROCKS in this format, his OPS is sick. Sure, Target Field may not play as well as the Metrodome, but he is so much better than any other catcher, I feel like I have just given my squad a huge head start, filling a position that 10-12 teams are going to punt. Mauer 1.10 – 10: 9,16,9 I played out different scenarios for the next two-three rounds, what to do if I get Mauer and what to do if I get a 1st baseman. In both scenarios, I was targeting Justin Upton or Matt Holliday, so I was disappointed to see Matt go right before my pick. My decision was now between Kinsler and Greike. Both are risky, Kinsler can’t stay healthy, Greike is a pitcher with one amazing season. I think 2nd base is rather deep this year, I like Aaron Hill and Rickie Weeks, but I think the Rangers are going to score a billion runs this year and Kinsler will have a Utley-type season with even more steals. I’ll get pitchers later. Kinsler 2.7 – 23: 22,21,19 Well, this is a sad story. I am in court way too long Monday morning. I left a long queue, but then had another anxiety attack about the order. Unfortunately, the anxiety was outweighed by hunger, so rather than going to the library to turn off the Q, I go eat and then realize that I was 15 minutes too late, I had picked Chris Carpenter about two rounds too early. I look up Carpenter at Mock Draft Central and the earliest he’s been picked in the 800 million drafts they have conducted was 48th, I think that includes his mother. The strategy I had envisioned was grabbing Justin Morneau with this pick, a top ten first baseman and quite a bit better than the firstbasemen left, in my mind. Damn you grumbling stomache! I was really hoping Kun Fu Panda or Mark Reynolds were going to fall, no such luck. A rational participant would have taken Derek Jeter as the last decent shortstop for some time, but not I as I think Jeter blows and I don’t want anything to do with him – he’s too old to put up consecutive great years. Reaching for someone you really like is not the end of the world. Carpenter 3.10 – 42: 52, 76!, 77!!! Woo Hoo, little do I know that this will happen many more times, the Canuck Crusher is right there for the picking! There are some serious eyeball raising picks this round and I am quite pleased that someone thinks Derrek Lee will outperform Morneau. Yes, I’m a Twins fan and half of my first four picks are homers! Justin has been an every other year stud and this is his “other year”. Target Field will be no match for this Canadian. Other players I was contemplating was Ichiro (how has he fallen so far?), Nelson Cruz, Johan Santana and Bobby Abreau. Morneau 4.7 – 55: 38, 43, 43 Woo Hoo part two. Nelson Cruz falls really far. I’m starting to wonder if y’all realize that you can sneak a peek at the other RIBC drafts. Nelson will have a decent OBP, it won’t be nearly the drag that his batting average will be. Plus he crushes and I suspect that he will not bat 7th for long this season. I hold firm to the belief that the Rangers will score 18 billion runs. I see the beginnings of a closer run. I am never a willing participant in these events, I was born in a “never pay for saves” household, it runs in my blood. I’m glad that Markakis was taken right before my pick because I was struggling between the two, glad I didn’t have to make that call. Was also looking at Granderson and Abreu. Nelson Cruz – 5.10 – 74: 37!!!, 67, 61 This is really strange, am I missing something here? Did Bobby Abreu get thrown into a Venezuelan jail this winter? Rotowire predicts he will be the 28th best player in this format in 2010. Match him up with Nelson Cruz and you’ve got a .385/.495 outfielder with 45~50 steals and huge runs/rbis. Damn, I can’t believe my good fortune. I don’t have a third baseman yet, so I was eyeing Michael Young, but I just couldn’t believe Abreu was there! With the exception of Pena and Berkman, I thought everyone picked here was a reach. I was on the edge of my seat waiting, hoping that Bobby would be there! Bobby Abreu – 6.07 – 87: 69, 83, 88 A boatload of closers come off the board in rounds six and seven. I thought I would reluctantly join the party with this pick, but the top 10 were long gone by this point. I would like to have a top 10 player in each position in my infield with a good group of outfielders, that’s a mighty task in a 16 team league. Catcher, check, 1st, check, 2nd, check. I have a SS in mind, but I think he will drop. After watching Michael Young fall off the board, third base is looking like a North Korean banquet. Eight 3rd basemen are gone and Chipper is the last, best hope before a huge desert, I don’t even know who would be next. It could be days before the next guy is gone. I’ve had Chipper far too many times this decade and I am suffering from some sort of mental illness. The plus side, he is an OBP machine, just kills it. Great chance of a lot of RBI’s. Pretty much guarantees that I will be picking a backup third baseman flier late. Chipper Jones – 7.10 – 106: 150!!, 103, 76 I felt safe in not taking The Ass in round seven because teams 11-16 already had shortstops. Rotowire has him as the 5th best SS. Plus, he has second base eligibility. He is young and has great upside, but he could very well pull an Alexi Ramirez and stink it up this year, at least he is not likely to get hurt. I’m very excited that I have met the goal of a top ten player in each infield position. That said, I would have taken Cole Hamels, man I was pissed when he was taken. Great pick, Homer. Asbrubal Cabrera 8.07 – 119: 84, 131, 93 I went to bed realizing that I have only one pitcher, no saves, and closers are continuing to fall off the board rapidly. Angry that I didn’t land Hamels, I did some research and decided that Wandy Rodriguez would look great with a SZ emblazoned upon his uni. When he was taken this morning, man, I let out a howl. That happened a lot this round, I wanted Qualls, Franklin, Marmol and Span. Dernard was a real steal! I settled on Mike Gonzalez because he became such good friends with Chipper the past few seasons talking with him on adjoining training room tables most of the year. Mike Gonzalez 9.10 – 138: 138, 160, 140 Now is the time to get my starters. I’m trying to decide who I want more, Lackey, Scott Baker, or Jered Weaver. I like Lackey because he should get a lot of wins for the BoSox and he is healthy at the beginning of the year. I like Baker because he never walks anybody and the Twins kick ass. Weaver is getting better and better, he’s 27 years old this year. Hey, why not all three? I’m so grateful that someone wanted Edwin Jackson instead. I’ve had J. Shields on most of my teams for the past three seasons, last year was the last time, no more. John Lackey – 10.07 – 151: 141, 158, 145 Jered Weaver – 11.10 – 169: 156, 170, 177 Scott Baker – 12.07 – 182: 125!, 167, 151 The outfielders I was most interested in, Jason Kubel, Raul Ibanez, and Johnny Damon come off the board during my SP run. I’ve been eying that Tokyo-destroying, porn-consuming beast moving west to Anaheim and thinking he would make a great addition. He will play DH all year but he qualifies at outfield. Obviously, the guy can still rake and I think he is going to rack up 100 rbi’s in the 5 hole for the Angels. I was also looking at Vlad Guerrero and considering I already had Chipper Jones, I worry that I am succoming to falling for injured guys on the wrong side of 35. Damn it, Hideki is an iron man, respect that bat! Guerrero is toast. Hideki Matsui – 13.10 – 201: 204, 208, 226 Could the last uninjured, certain closer last another round? Nah, I probably screwed myself out of a second closer. He was taken in the EIGHTH round in the RIBC, where all the smart people are. I’m getting a chuckle watching bums who play catcher come off the board, I’ve never had a top catcher before. I’m surprised with a couple of other picks, and YES, how can you not love the name Octavio? I’ve watched this guy pitcher for years and always wondered why he wasn’t a closer for the past eight years. There ain’t no one in Pittsburg who is going to unseat him. I’m stoked. Octavio Dotel – 14.07: 214: 124!, 162, 181 With Kelly Johnson off the board, I decide I want a shortstop as my middle fielder and I can’t decide between Scuttaro and JJ Hardy. They are obviously polar opposites and both are batting in the ass end of the order. Scuttaro had an amazing season for the Jays, it’s impossible to recreate that at the bottom of an order. JJ stunk last year, but the kid is 27 and has serious pop. Plus, I want my roster to be like a Chuck Close painting, up close they are a bunch of individual blobs, but from a distance it is the Minnesota Twins logo! I expect a huge season out of JJ and I think he was in danger of not making it back to me if I didn’t pull the trigger. JJ Hardy – 15.10 – 235: 199, 244, 212 I have two corner fielders in mind for this year, Troy Glaus and Aubrey Huff. Aubrey was amazing in 2008 and stunk up the joint in 2009. Glaus means Glass in baseball speak and is the type of old injury waiting to happen I should avoid. Aubrey is slated to bat cleanup for the Giants. Even the worst cleanup hitter will knock in 100 if he stays healthy all year and Huff is known for his health. This is a reach, hell, he isn’t drafted in RIBC or PCL as I write this, but I don’t care. Aubrey Huff – 16.07 – 248: 334(they ain’t that smart), 248, 297 A lot of my deep sleeper starters are coming off the boards – Kevin Slowey (won’t be a part of my Chuck Close painting, damn!), Ervin Santana, Ben Sheets, and now Justin Durscherrscheresrrer. Damn, the guy has one decent Spring Training start and you’ve got to snap him up? I want Josh Willingham and I hope no one realizes just how good he will be this year. I also want Ted Lilly. Both have been going around the same time in the other RIBC leagues, but I need Josh more than I need Ted. JW never crossed my mind this preseason, he’s the type of pick that come about in slow drafts, where you get the time to cross check a handful of players and mull. Josh Willingham – 17.10 – 267: 238, 229, 257 Hey, I get Teddy Bear as well. This will be the third year in a row that I end up with Ted Lilly on a team at a huge discount, the guy is simply ignored year after year. Yeah, throwing shoulder surgery sounds bad, so he starts the season in April – he’s my fifth starter. Last year the guy’s WHIP and ERA were awesome and the Cubs will probably be a little better this year. This pick generates some noise in the draft thread, so I’m pretty stoked. Ted Lilly – 18.07 – 280: 235, 255, 225 I have not had a home town Mariner on a fantasy team since Bret Boone. I don’t know, I just have not felt that there has been a bargain for years, sure wish I had Felix Hernandez, though. But that was before “You sank my battleship” came to town. I’m with you, Milton, George Bush DOES hate black people, you ARE the Kayne West of baseball and no one is going to boo you here in Seattle. Hell, I don’t blame you for last year, I wouldn’t have left my apartment if I was stuck in Chicago, either, that place sucks. I’ve been a fan of Milton for over ten years, as has my father, who still talks about his heroics in 1999. Bases loaded bottom of the ninth in the final game of the Championship series, Harrisburg Senators down 11-9, two outs, full count – Milton crushes a walk off, grand slam perm dude to win the championship! He’s batting clean up and his OBP is awesome. And if he stinks it up like he did to me last year, I’m changing his name to Hasbro. Milton Bradley – 19.10 – 299: 342, 307, 324 Every year experts tout middle relievers as a great addition to deep league rosters for their low ERA/WHIP and K/9 and if you are lucky, wins and vulture saves. Thing is, these days it’s nearly impossible to correctly pick that five category MR, they change year to year and seemingly come out of no where. In the early part of the century, there were many MR’s who put together three or four consecutive outstanding seasons – high number of innings with great stats. They have gone the way of the 60 home run season for the same reason. Guessing who will be the great MR of 2010 can be a fool’s errand, but I felt that Phil Hughes has such a great young arm that I feel safe taking him. Ten minutes before the pick, he’s named the 5th starter. Well, he was awful last year as a starter, I want his reliever numbers. Here’s to upside! I was also thinking about Kevin Correia and Matt Guerrier and I’m curious to see how Joel Pinero does back in the AL West. Phil Hughes – 20.07 – 312: 244, 303, 194!!!! I’ve been eying double E for a few rounds now. I think he is a prime candidate for post hype sleeper, seriously post hype. He’s 27, has a solid if injury-marred track record, and will play a big role in Toronto’s offense. I have to have a back up third baseman with Chipper Jones in the hot corner, so this is a no-brainer. I’m expecting a .800 OBS minimum with decent RBIs. Edwin Encarncion – 21.10 – 331: 314, 254!, 377 Japanese ballplayers are undervalued by touts, with the exception of Ichiro – and that’s only because they are mesmerized by his dashing good looks. I think the same can be said of you guys, except you don’t like Ichiro, either. Kosuke has a great OBP and will be batting second in a strong Cubs line up. If you look only at his HRs and steals 11-6 last year, 10-12 in ’08, yuck, but he has a .800 OBS and could score 100 runs. At pick number 343, I love him, I’ve been eying him for four rounds. Baseball HQ did a short feature on him in their free Friday e-mail right before I picked him, I was afraid someone else would be alerted to this potential steal. Kosuke Fukudome – 22.07 – 344: 315, 378, 323 Man, I was mad to see Aaron Harang go and was surprised to see Scott Podsednik vanish this early. I want to take flier on a starter who has the potential to shock everyone and make a bid for the All-Star team, the 2010 version of Wandy Rodriguez. If Bronson has a first half of 2010 like his second half of 2009, he’s the man. I will start by picking his starts judiciously and hope for the best. Bronson Arroyo – 23.10 – 362: 322, 296, 353 Time to leave for Seattle for an in-person keeper league draft, watch my mates play some Aussie Rules Football, and then a board meeting and party for the Cannabis Defense Coalition. Just put a bunch of names into my queue and not really care who I get. I’ve got my back ups for Chipper and Milton Bradley, I may need a middle infielder to start the season if Ian Kinsler starts on the DL. I like Jose Mijares’ peripherals even though they point towards a slight regression. He could end up getting saves when the last batter is a lefty. And I need another Twin! Jose Mijares – 24.07 – 375: 362, ND, 388 The party is a blast. There is an initiative gathering signatures in WA to legalize marijuana. Man, that will be a good day, imagine the I-1068 Election Night party! The next morning I see I landed Mark Lowe. I had Felipe Lopez above him in my queue, I think he was a great pick. There were a lot of great last round picks – I really like the Jeff Clement pick, he could end up as one of the top ten catchers. I like Brandon League a little more, but David Aardsma is the first name is losing closers, so Mark Lowe is a low risk shot at cheap saves. Mark Lowe – 25.10 – 394: 376, ND, ND I’m pleased with the results of my first RIBC draft. I had three picks I would label reaches but ten picks where I got a guy after he was drafted in the three higher leagues. I’m light in steals. The team I think has the best squad today is Diligad. Play ball! | ||||||
| 3 | kdl212 ID: 361121615 Wed, Mar 31, 2010, 14:46 |
This is my first-ever RIBC league. I did a little research on the rotoguru message boards to try and figure out some draft strategies. I checked 2008 and 2009 RIBC rationales and draft recaps. The things that stood out were: (1) middle infielders go earlier than you’d expect, (2) hitters go earlier than pitchers, (3) ideally you have 2 closers or punt saves and (4) all the managers know what they are doing. I had 8th choice of slot – and the first 7 slots were taken. Normally, I’d be happy to be in the middle, but as I looked at the first round, I saw 10 guys I’d be very happy with, so I wanted the lowest pick that would get me one of them, and assure me of a shorter turn in the even rounds. Assuming one pick came out of nowhere, I chose 11th. So going into the draft I had a broad strategy: get some big boppers early, especially if they are infielders, hold off on starting pitching, and get 2 closers by round 10. Overall, I am pleased with the results. I loved my first 5 picks, regretted only one pick (Ian Stewart in the 6th), and think I got some nice value in rounds 12-19. Only 3 times was the #1 person in my queue snatched from me the pick before mine, all three times by Goatlocker (Figgins, Uggla, and Nolasco in the 4th, 6th and 8th). The following picks were all later than the RIBC average: Longoria, Holliday, Jeter, Lester, Granderson, Street, Morgan, Drew, Scherzer, K. Johnson, Napoli, Sheets, C. Jackson, Rasmus, Bard, Izturis, Hafner, League, Pettitte, and Inge. Not bad, for what it’s worth. Several times no one got a player later than I did. We’ll see if that means anything come September. I don’t think I won the draft at all, particularly with a rather empty pitching staff. I have no idea whether my offense is below-average or well-balanced. If I could do it again, I’d have avoided Street, waited longer on a catcher, taken a SP instead of an outfielder in the late-middle despite the value the outfielders offered, and gambled in the last round on something other than Brandon Inge. I am excited about the league. Round by round recap to follow. | ||||||
| 4 | C1-NRB ID: 6342112 Thu, Apr 01, 2010, 13:44 |
I’m #1! I’m #1! I was the first person to pick the following players in the RIBC formats: Player, Round I selected him, Average RIBC Round, How far ahead of the curve? Mark Reynolds 3B, 2.11, 3.02, 7 Jason Bay OF, 3.06, 3.13, 7 Josh Beckett SP, 4.11, 5.10, 15 Andrew Bailey RP, 5.06, 6.04, 20 Brandon Webb SP, 10.11, 12.04, 25 Marlon Byrd, 16.11, 18.16, 37 Jake Fox, 17.06, 23.04, 94 Fernando Rodney RP, 18.11, 20.15, 36 J.P. Howell RP, 20.11, 23.15, 52 That’s over one third of my team. And the worst part of it is I don’t have compelling reasons for most of those selections. The Reynolds pick was based on position scarcity. Beckett seemed like a good pick to anchor my staff. Bailey was a panic pick because it seemed like a closer was starting and I wouldn’t come up again for another 21 picks. Byrd was a frustration pick. I only had two OF at the time and my queued players at that point- Zambrano, McGehee, Wolf, and Luke Scott- were all pulled ahead of me. I took Jake Fox because he has a projected .513 SLG and is out of options, so he’s in the big leagues to stay. Irregardless, the 17th round was too high for a backup. I completely missed the boat for 2B, so I struggled through most of the draft looking for a bargain that could produce something. I went with Getz in the 21st round because I couldn’t let another potential contributor slip by. He’s not starting, but could be platooning and I liked him better than the starting 2B that were available. I’d rather punt the postion and have him on the bench than start percentage category blackholes. Looking over my pitching staff, I think I did really well there. I reached on Webb, but the round before I was the last RIBCer to pick Wandy Rodriguez. I like to have a few closers-in-waiting because they can help the percentage categories and they are easily expendable if it doesn’t look like they’ll ever get a closing gig. I wanted Edwin Jackson in the 11th but he went off the board two ahead of me. I nabbed Perez in that slot the morning the news came out about Kerry Wood. Short answers to the questions: 1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? Best available, scarce positions first. 2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over? My most favorite was Teahen in the last round, last RIBCer to get him. I’d take a do-over Jason Bay and get a 2B- Phillips or Aaron Hill most likely. 3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? GreggoRomans has a solid looking team. Seattle Zen, while new to the format, is a formidable fantasy player so I’m going to keep a close eye on him. Many times he took someone I was targeting before my pick came back around. 4. What surprised you most about the draft? The timeouts. Queues are so easy to set. 5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently? Nine times I jumped the RIBC gun. I’d try to rein that in; but if it works out, nevermind. | ||||||
| 5 | Seattle Zen Leader ID: 055343019 Sat, Apr 17, 2010, 12:10 | In my best Dave Niehaus voice My oh my! Up TWENTY SIX and a half points last night. When you send three starters to the mound, you dream of nights like this, but you don't expect a fourth win by your closer. | ||||||
| 6 | kdl212 ID: 361121615 Mon, May 03, 2010, 12:00 |
one month in, I looked these over and found some comments funny. They were written as the draft happened. Round 1 – my ideal targets were Teixeira and Longoria, with Kemp as a consolation. I thought I was out of luck when we got to pick 10 and only Longoria remained, but I was spared that by a selection of Joe Mauer. Since 3B seems thin at the top, I was happy with this pick. Round 2 – if Crawford or Ellsbury fell to me, I would’ve gone with either. But they didn’t, so I looked for another high OBP/SLUG guy who ideally could throw in some steals. Matt Holliday looked good. I considered Kinsler and Rollins, but I had other targets at 2B and SS. Round 3 – first big dilemma: Jeter or Cano. I didn’t expect Cano to be around, but he was. But given my first 2 picks, I opted for the extra steals that Jeter offers. I don’t expect a repeat of 2009, but don’t expect a big drop-off either. Round 4 – Looking at the remaining elite SP options: I considered there to be 2, Lester and Verlander. After them, I saw a drop-off, particularly in strikeout numbers. Rather than chase last year’s Cy Young contenders, I wanted this year’s, so I took Lester. Round 5 – pleased that Granderson fell to me, though I would have preferred Nelson Cruz, who went the pick before me. I was also looking at C. Pena, Berkman, and Uggla, but I thought one of those sluggers would make it back to me around the short bend. Round 6 – three picks before me, and Pena, Berkman and Uggla were still on the board. When it got to me, all were gone. I wasn’t happy. And instead of going with Carlos Lee (which would have given me 3 OFs, and I really thought there was late round value in the OF to be had), I looked to 2b. Ian Stewart was the last high SLUG guy on my board, he has the allure of CI/MI eligibility, and he has upside, so I went there. I regretted it immediately after, and am convinced that I picked my starting 2b in round 14 (Kelly Johnson), and my back-up here in round 6. Round 7 – I was targeting a closer here, Billy Wagner was still there. Old + injury risk, but nice ratios and on a good team. Round 8 – Back to SP, again looking for breakouts candidates who won't last much longer. If Nolasco or Billingsley were available, they were my pick. Nolasco went right before my pick, so I grabbed Billingsley. I think his second half last year was an aberration, and he’s capable of a top-10 starter year in LA pitching regularly against SF and SD. Round 9 – I planned to go 1B here, but there were still 3 first basemen I grouped together (Helton, Konerko, Cuddyer), and I figured one would make it back to me based on folks already filling up that position, so I looked elsewhere here. It was down to 2 rockies: Huston Street, who just got clean MRI results back but still didn’t expect to be ready on Opening Day, and Carlos Gonzalez, who has bigtime upside. I should have gone CarGo, but again there was so much OF talent still out there, and Street offered great ratios even if he missed April. I went with the injured closer. We’ll see how fast and well he recovers. Round 10 – Helton was taken before me, and I didn’t think Konerko and Cuddyer would make it back to me, so I went with Konerko. Cuddyer’s 1B/OF eligibility was appealing, but I expect a regression. Konerko’s older, but steady (I hope). Round 11 – I targeted outfield here, either a high OBP guy or a high steals guy. Borbon, Coghlan, JD Drew, Damon and Nyjer Morgan were on the top of my list as the round began. Drew, Damon and Morgan came to me, and Morgan looked like the only 30+ steals guy left on the board, so I went with him. Round 12 – Drew was still there, and though I considered a SP and Miguel Tejada (3B/SS eligibility, and no need for steals after Morgan), I just couldn’t pass up JD’s high OBP/SLUG numbers. He had the 5th highest OPS of all outfielders last year. I’ll take 140 games of top 10 OF happily in the 12th round. | ||||||
| 7 | kdl212 ID: 361121615 Mon, May 03, 2010, 12:04 |
Round 13 – the game of catcher chicken began in this round for me. Still several options, not sure when the run would occur (turns out it never really did). I didn’t want to start the run, and counted more catchers I’d accept than teams who needed to draft a catcher, so I looked for a high upside strikeout pitcher. Scherzer, Kazmir or Harden topped my list. With Drew and Street, I couldn’t add the brittle Harden (and I didn’t like him going to Arlington). Kazmir may have better chances at wins, but I thought Scherzer had a better shot at 200ks. So I took Scherzer, though it was not enthusiastically. Round 14 – still wasn’t ready to blink on a catcher, so I went with Kelly Johnson who could have a nice bounce back year in a good hitting environment. Round 15 – when Ianetta and Posada went off the board, only Napoli, Molina and Pierzynski remained on my acceptable catcher list. Molina might get replaced by Posey sometime during the year, and Pierzynski wasn’t going to go for a couple more rounds at least, so I took Napoli. Round 16 – I wanted my 4th SP here, preferably a low ratio guy (Slowey). But that wasn’t to be – Ben Sheets was still on the board. Hopefully that 10 run, no out spring training start was just a bad day, and he comes back and puts up SP1 starter numbers. I’ll take 140 good innings this late in the draft. Ideally, he pitches well in Oakland, then gets traded to the NL mid-season to a contender. It’s that, or about 45 innings pitched and a lot of time on the DL. Round 17 – Conor Jackson came back to me, so I took him. Too much upside to let him go, even though I really wanted Dice-K or Lilly. Round 18 – Colby Rasmus. He offers 15/15 potential, with many runs hitting in front of Pujols and Holliday. This proved one thing: that there is plenty of OF talent available late, so I was regretting less my pick of Ian Stewart at this point. But I knew that I’d be missing out on some guys I also wanted by going with another OF here, and I did. Lilly went with the next pick. Round 19 – looking for a high strikeout middle reliever, ideally a closer in waiting. Daniel Bard looked promising. He’s unlikely to fill in for Papelbon if Paps gets injured, but I’m hoping he gives me 10k/9ip and some scrappy wins. Round 20 – Finally filled me last starting hitting position. I needed some kid of infielder. I liked Maicer Izturis 2b/SS eligibility, and consider him the 5th starter in the Angels infield. He should get regular playing time. Was also considering phil Hughes and Chris Young (SD) to give me a 5th starter, but MI was starting to look real weak. Round 21 – Another high strike out closer in waiting, Brandon League. Good defense, pitcher’s park, Aardsma never did before what he did last year, so maybe he falters and I’ve got another closer here. With news on Street not good, I was looking for a closer in waiting. Round 22 – 3 teams still had no catcher, and I thought both Kelly Shoppach and Jeff Clement looked nice as a hedge against Napoli and potential early season trade bait. I flipped a coin, and took Shoppach. Round 23 – Definitely targeting a 5th starting pitcher here, looking at 3 Reds: Harang, Arroyo and Bailey. All of them, plus Rowland-Smith, disappear before I choose this round, so I pick Travis Hafner, the last clean-up hitter available. Who knows, maybe he is healthy. Round 24 – Definitely picking a starting pitcher, looking for reliability and wins. Andy Pettitte, welcome to the squad. I don’t expect good numbers other than 150ip and 13 wins. Round 25 – Several interesting 3B still available (Freese, Inge, Teahen) plus Russell Branyan and Jeff Clement. I prayed for first-half 2008 Brandon Inge, and made my pick. | ||||||
| 8 | Seattle Zen ID: 10732616 Tue, Oct 12, 2010, 21:01 |
Here’s a post mortem on my season. I was disappointed at how inactive and quiet our league was, it was shocking to me that closers were easy to pick up later in the season. There were only 7 trades, I was a part of three of them. Many teams left inactive and injured players in their line-ups for months. Round one – Joe Mauer. Not the greatest of my picks, not the worst. Really disappointed with his SLG and RBI’s, but he did end up as the best catcher. I was absolutely correct about Matt Kemp. Wish I had taken Miggy Cabrera. Round Two – Ian Kinsler. Wow, go look at the 19 picks from Justin Upton on down, this round sucked for just about everyone. What a wasteland. Outside of CC and Votto, pretty much everyone sucked. In what became a disturbing trend, Kinsler was fine with OBP but his power was sorely lacking. Fifteen steals was fourth best on my team, though. Glad I didn’t choose Greike. And damn you, kdl, YOU should have taken kinsler or rollins! Round Three – Chris Carpenter. I might have reached, but he was solid, one of the best picks of the round. Most people would have taken Jeter. Somehow Smith & 9th won despite that pick. Adam Dunn was great, as was Robbie Cano, but after Kinsler was on the squad, I certainly wasn’t going to get him. Round Four – Justin Morneau. I probably would have won the league if it wasn’t for Iron Knee Blue Jay who knocked my Canuck for a loop. He was in the running for AL MVP at the end of June, his 1.000 OPS and 120+ RBI pace was sorely missed. Hey, Justin got kicked in the head, what were Chone Figgins and BJ Upton’s excuses? Adam Wainright was the class pick of the round. Round Five – Nelson Cruz. Yet another disappointment due to injuries. In only 400 ab’s he outperformed Andre Ethier’s 520ab’s. Outside of Morneau, he led my team in SLG by a wide margin, just needed more at bats to make a difference. Ubaldo was the class pick of the round.. Round Six – Bobby Abreu. A good, but not great pick. He had 24 steals, second most on the team, disappointing slugging. I put him in the lineup and forgot about him, you need a handful of those players. That said, should have gone with Michael Young. Brian Wilson was a good pick in this round, Lance Berkman, not so much. Round Seven – Chipper Jones. What a crappy pick, I should know better. Pretty much everyone picked after him performed better. I certainly hope that I would have taken Matt Cain had Wolfer not taken him, great pick. Round Eight – Ass Cabrera. Well, I did predict this happening “but he could very well pull an Alexi Ramirez and stink it up this year”. Sure did. Rickie Weeks! Man, I had him in other leagues, it just ain’t right that a poor second round pick leads to further mistakes down the line. Josh Hamilton, David Ortiz, Jason Heyward, yeah, I screwed this one up. Round Nine – Mike Gonzalez – Third crap pick in a row. How did I finish third? What a huge bust and considering that in the RIBC’s infinite wisdom there are no DL slots, he destroyed a bench slot for most of the season. Yeah, I think I would have been more satisfied taking Carlos Gonzalez. Yeah, probably. Round Ten – John Lackey. Not a great pick, but thankfully traded him away for a good shortstop before he decimated my ratios. Should have drafted Juan Pierre, wait, mjd will give him to me for free a month into the season. Thanks, mjd! Round Eleven – Jered Weaver. Hey, now I am seeing glimmers of drafting wisdom! Best pick of the round. I targeted him in all of my leagues and he came through. Round 12 – Scott Baker. I’m not going to go back day-by-day, but I do believe I sat him for several road starts that he ended up getting crushed and started him every time at home, so he did alright for me. Would it kill ESPN to give us a page with the stats of everyone who made it into our lineup for the season. Even CBS offers that, it’s a great feature and a seriously under studied part of fantasy baseball. I traded him away, too bad that trade didn’t help me at all. Round 13 – Godzilla. I was on the record saying that Hideki would outperform Vlad this year. WRONG! Hideki had a horrible May and July, I remember sitting him a lot, but he was great after the All-Star break. Not a terrible pick, wish I would have gone with Price or Liriano. The Feliz pick was a stroke of genius, the Nick Swisher pick was great, as well. Round 14 – Octavio Dotel – This was not a bad pick, he had 22 saves and even though he had piss poor ratios for a closer, he did have a great 75k’s in 64 innings. Corey Hart and Tim Hudson were inspired picks. Round 15 – JJ Hardy – Man, I picked all the wrong Twins this year. Casey McGehee sure would have been smarter! Very disappointing. Round 16 – Aubry Huff – Pat on the back, I stretched to pick him and was predicting a great season from him because he was scheduled to hit clean up. My best pick in the draft. Round 17 – Josh Willingham – Another great pick, he was crushing until his injury and because he is an outfielder, I had plenty of back ups to pick up the slack. However, had I stuck with my Twins strategy, Delmon Young certainly outperformed Josh, though I wouldn’t have drafted Young in the 117th round, I disliked him immensely coming into this year. Round 18 – Ted Lilly – Three good picks in a row. F’ing Cubs blew many of his games, he had only THREE wins in 18 starts for those bums, even though he had a 3.69 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Traded to the Dodgers and he was awesome, seven wins in 12 starts 3.52 ERA and a .99 WHIP. There were so terrible picks around this – Eric Bedard, Mike Adams, but Chris Young and Derek Lowe were not among them. Round 19 – Milton Bradley – UGH! I cut him so quick, I gave this pick away. Hasbro or maybe Has been! Round 20 – Phil Hughes – when you consider when I traded him, maybe he was my best draft pick. More on that later, he did give me 69.6 innings of 2.71 ERA 1.09 WHIP 68 K’s and ELEVEN wins. Round 21 – EEncarnacion – WHY OH WHY NOT JOSE BASTITA?! Scott Roland was taken just a few picks earlier! Round 22 – Kosuke Fukudome – Even though I cut him in June, he did well, I seriously think Pinella hates the Japanese. Lou started to sit him regularly even though he had a .820 OPS, great for lead off. Yeah, he starts to fade because he isn’t playing every day. He heats up again in September and I ride that Shinkansen all the way to Tokyo!  Yeah, CJ Wilson was inspired as was Buster Posey. Round 23 – Bronson Arroyo – Don’t know why he lasted so long, he was great all year. Allowed me to trade away four other SP’s and still went over the innings limit on the last day. Rounds 24&25 – League Replacement Average MR. Cut them both early. Key pick ups – Jamie Garcia. He was AWESOME. I had a hard time believing that this inexperienced rookie coming off surgery could keep it up all season, but he did. Juan Pierre. Wow, I couldn’t believe my eyes. I was about to make trade inquiries looking for steals, thankfully I snapped up Juan, who gave me a .352 OBP, .336 SLG, 88 runs, 46 rbi, and a whopping 58 steals! Uehara and Takahashi – Y’all are worse than Pinella. These two gave me about 20 saves! Mike Stanton & Kuo – Cut them both too soon. Trades – There were only seven trades all year, I made three of them. I realized early that I had TONS of starting pitching talent and I was afraid after a couple of poor starts by John Lackey that he would soon become worthless. Alex Gonzalez was hitting the cover off the ball and I sold my trade as a “Sell High, Buy Low” opportunity. Here’s how it worked out. John Lackey before May 14th – 4 wins 4.60 ERA, 1.44 WHIP 27K in 43 IP After – 11 wins 4.44 ERA, 1.43 WHIP 119 K in 164.3 IP Alex Gonzalez before May 14th – OPB .291, SLG .569, 22 runs, 27 RBI, 1 steal in 36games After – OPB .296, SLG .415, 51 runs, 61 RBI, no steals in 121 games. Well, Alex certainly was sold high and it didn’t help when he was traded to Atlanta, but Lackey stayed low and I consider it a good trade for me. June 10 – Phil Hughes and Chipper Jones for Joquin Soria and Jose Valverde I’m very proud of the timing of this trade, I hopped off Hughes at his peak and got 43 saves in exchange. Chipper Jones got injured, shocking, I know. Valverde came back to Earth, but even straight up for Soria I made out like a bandit. Chipper on June 10 - .382 OBP, .350 SLG, 22 runs, 22 rbis, 3 steals in 50 games After - .379 OBP, .506 SLG, 25 runs, 24 RBi, 2 steals in 45 games Phil Hughes on June 10 – 8 wins ERA 2.71, 1.09 WHIP, 68 K’s in 69.6 IP After – 9 wins ERA 5.20, 1.36 WHIP, 76 K’s in 105.6 innings J Soria – 13 saves, ERA 2.49, WHIP 1.06, 27 K’s no wins in 21.6 IP After – 30 saves, ERA 1.05, WHIP 1.00 40 K’s in 43 IP Valverde – 12 saves, ERA .37, WHIP .78, 18 K’s in 24.3 IP One win After – 13 saves, ERA 4.78, 1.40 WHIP, 44K’s in 37.6 IP One win The final trade on August 11th was an opportunity missed. Traded Jaime Garcia and Scott Baker for Mark Reynolds. I really wanted some power from a corner position in exchange for starting pitching. There weren’t too many trade partner opportunities. I was hoping that the Mini-Donkey would light it up like he did late last season, boy, did he suck. Both Jamie and Scott pitched well for C1-NRB, but I was running out of innings fast and simply didn’t have space on the roster for them anymore. How bad was the Donk? In the 105 games prior to the trade - .334 OBP, .470 SLG, 62 runs, 69 RBI, 6 steals 39 games post - .282 OBP, .328 SLG, 17 runs, 15 RBI, 1 steal. It kills me that he ended up scoring more runs than Ichiro, that’s hilarious. I really thought I would win this when I was in the lead in July. My top picks all disappointed in the power department and Slugging was my worst category. I’m very proud of my 1.18 WHIP, that’s pretty ridiculous for such a deep league. Looking forward to zipping through AAA just as fast as my stay in AA. SZ | ||||||
| 9 | wolfer ID: 253492512 Tue, Oct 12, 2010, 21:22 |
I was disappointed at how inactive and quiet our league was, it was shocking to me that closers were easy to pick up later in the season. There were only 7 trades, I was a part of three of them. Many teams left inactive and injured players in their line-ups for months. I wonder if part of the reason why that happened is that we had a few that were in both AA and AAA. | ||||||
| 10 | kdl212 ID: 361121615 Wed, Oct 13, 2010, 17:19 |
I shared SZ's disappointment with the participation level, especially when 4 of the bottom 7 in the standings were AAA participants. I'm happy we had a full league, but not happy that so many abandoned it. Having never played RIBC before, I had no idea how my team looked after the draft. And while I did not win the league in the draft, I did set myself up to be competitive. Longoria and Holliday were solid early picks, as they gave me contributions across the board. Jeter's actual stink was less than the overwhelming funk I smelled everytime I looked at his stats - he ended up the 80th ranked hitter under our system. Not 3rd round material, definitely not as good as Cano would have been in that slot, but not a total disaster. The middle rounds are where I scored, even when I gave up. Billy Wagner was amazing out of the 7th round (4th rated pitcher in the player rater); Paul Konerko in the 10th was my offensive MVP (#9 hitter on the player rater), Kelly Johnson in the 14th and Colby Rasmus in the 18th were solid contributers all year round. Max Scherzer was lights out after I dumped him and he came back from AAA, and Bard, who I dumped early in a search for saves, was also solid all year for whoever picked him up. The only guy I drafted in the 20s who stuck was Andy Pettitte, who I turned along with Colby Lewis into a much needed closer in June. The waiver wire, which most seemed to ignore, was also kind to me. Luke Scott and Neil Walker gave me awesome hitting numbers in the second half, while Edwin Jackson, Javier Vasquez, Johnny Cueto, Colby Lewis, Mike Pelfrey and Brandon Morrow provided a bunch of solid innings. The 32 saves I found on the waiver wire over the course of the year were crucial as well. A big part of my success was a monster April in hitting (.530 slugging percentage for the month), and a solid Sept/Oct from my pitching staff (nice ratios, and 32 saves in the last 33 days of the season). I also was able to sit guys like Drew, Rasmus, and Granderson against left-handed pitching and maximize their production. Throughout September, I didn't think I could win, given Dilligad's lead and the fact that I was behind in wins and saves and had used more innings. But that amazing last day, where 5 starters allowed only 6 earned runs in 33 innings while securing 5 wins, allowed me to leapfrog up the charts in wins and era, and 2 saves caught Dilligad in that category. I was out that Sunday, and didn't check the internet until 7pm, when I miraculously saw what my pitchers had done. But this was Seattle Zen's league to win if it weren't for injuries. With full seasons from any 3 of Mauer, Morneau, Kinsler and Cruz, and anything but the zero he got from Mark Reynolds (.294 OBP and .333 slugging in over 100 at-bats), I'd be singing a different tune right now. Again, I appreciate the opportunity to play, and look forward to getting stomped next year when it's not just me, mjd, and SZ watching the waiver wire. | ||||||
| 11 | Seattle Zen Leader ID: 055343019 Fri, Oct 15, 2010, 11:28 |
Nice write up, kdl. It's funny that two teams that drafted next to each other can have completely opposite opinions on most of the players the other picked and yet both teams were powerhouses. Sometimes fate smiles on you and you end up with Konerko because some took Helton before your pick, and sometimes you draft Ben Sheets. There were tons a quality arms on the WW, something I'll remember for next year. Well played, Smith & 9th! | ||||||
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