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Subject: RIBC PCL 2011 RATIONALES #1 - 5
Posted by: judy
- Leader [7771722] Sun, Mar 13, 2011, 14:48
We do our rationales in groups of 5, so we are ready to begin. I have provided the format below.
First, tell why you chose the draft slot you did.
Then, round by round explain your selection.
Please do not mention anyone not yet drafted!
Note that RATIONALES are required. So try to stay on top of them. Rounds 1 through 5 are due NOW! |
| 1 | judy
Leader
ID: 7771722
Sun, Mar 13, 2011, 14:50
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Reason for choosing 5th slot. Wanted one of 5 guys for my first pick. Normally I would go more towards the middle so as not to have so long between picks, but I really wanted one of 5 guys for my #1.
1.05 Carlos Gonzalez OF COL
Picking 5th, I had 5 guys I wanted for my #1. Big Al, Hanley, Tulo and Joey all went ahead of me, BUT I had listed CarGo as my #1. So I am HAPPY! He is a 5 tool player who should only get better and challenge again for MVP.
2.12 Buster Posey 1B/C SF
By the time my turn rolled around again, all the heavy hitting 1B were long gone, BUT Posey has 1B eligibility for this season. He is also a very fine player. He ranked as the #2 Catcher. Hopefully, he will help inflate ALL my hitter stats.
3.05 BrandonPhillips 2B CIN
I chose Brandon last season and he did not disappoint. When that happens, I tend to re-sign players. He is a top tier 2B and was the 4th chosen. He should provide all around solid stats. I wanted a top 2B as after the first 10 or so, the position is pretty weak or inconsistent.
4.12 Matt Latos SP SD
This was a funny pick. I knew I wanted a SP and was hoping that Hamels would fall to me but it was not to be as Sanfordors snatched him away 2 picks before me. Thirteen SP had been taken before it was my turn. To be honest, I never heard of this guy before, but then he is left coaster...But I did some research and he looks to be a solid guy with a nice WHIP, ERA and K’s. We shall see as I did pick him over Oswalt who ended up being the 21st SP taken.
5.05 Shane Victorino OF PHL
People were starting to grab OF and I needed another one of the better ones to team up with CarGo. Shane was the 17th OF chosen. Most of the ones I really wanted were already gone and I was not prepared to wait and hope that he would still be there at my next turn. I also needed a Phillie to watch and they are getting picked off right and left. He should provide a better OBP and more steals this year. They are not sure where he will bat and with Utley a mess, he may be tried at a variety of spots.
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| 3 | Nerfherders
ID: 310111515
Sun, Mar 13, 2011, 16:30
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pick #9 With the tenth pick I was basically shooting for highest available. I was surprised to see #2 and #3 hang around as long as it did, because getting one of those slots guarantees a SS that outclasses the field. It didn't happen, but the 9th slot is better than the 10th I suppose. It also keeps me in the middle to get in on a run if I so choose.
1.09 Ryan Braun, OF MIL Even though Braun is best OF in the majors, and probably fell a bit farther than he should have, I feel I kind of made a mistake here. Longoria was still available and that was such a surprise I didn't even realize it until after I made my pick. Then, just like clockwork, the top 4 3B went off the board before the start of the 2nd round. Which leads to...
2.08 Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, TOR This was a bit of a panic pick, as I missed the top 4 3B, thinking one of them would still be here. The elite 1B were also off the board, so I took a gamble here with Bautista. Everyone knows he isn't going to hit 50 HR again, but the general consensus is about 30 HR. 80/100/.350/.500 would be great. Hopefully the projections are accurate.
3.09 Justin Upton, OF AZ I had a two-man queue in my head with 2 picks to go until mine - Choo and Uggla. And sure enough, they were picked 1-2. I hadnt really considered anyone else there at that point so I was scrambling. I went with Upton here, hoping that his down year last year was more due to injury than an aberrant 2009. If he plays to projection, he will be a 5-cat player.
4.08 Justin Verlander, SP DET I usually try to get an elite SP in the 3rd round, but there were still enough of them on the board to wait. Then there was a massive run of SP's, and I was glad to catch the tail end of that run of elites with the last of them. Verlander does everything well and is a deserving ace of my staff.
5.09 Rafael Furcal, SS LAD I struggled with this pick. I was hoping for one of the better 2B or C to be available, but each was taken. I really wanted an MI here that would not hurt me. Furcal is not really an exciting player and is somewhat injury prone, but he should give + in runs and steals, and wont kill the other three stats.
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| 4 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Sun, Mar 13, 2011, 16:52
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Reason for choosing 11th slot. 11th - 15th slots were open when choosing, and I just picked the highest slot remaining.
1.11 Roy Halladay SP PHI
I obviously had Halladay as my top rated pitcher. I expect Halladay to produce around 20 wins, 200 K's, 1.1 WHIP, and 2.50 ERA. Halladay has been very consistent over the last 5 years. He is one of the hardest working pitchers in the game. Being a Phillies fan, I had an opportunity to watch him live last year, and was amazed with his command.
2.06 Ryan Howard 1B PHI
Many have Howard rated lower this season because his stats declined last season. I attribute the decline to his ankle injury. At age 31, I don't think he is past his prime, and I expect 2006-2009 like numbers of around 140 RBIs, .570 SLG, .360 OBP, and 100 Runs.
3.11 CC Sabathia SP NYY
I decided use this pick on a 2nd SP because there are so few top SP's, and there would be more options for hitting next round. I expect Sabathia to put up numbers similar to his first two seasons with the Yankees. 20 wins, 200 K's, 1.2 WHIP, and 3.25 ERA. Sabathia has been one of the most consistent SP's over the last 5 years.
4.06 Jacoby Ellsbury OF BOS
After a breakout 2009 seson, Ellsbury was hampered by a rib injury and a major dissapointment to those who drafted him in 2010. He appears to be over his injury problems and is having a great spring training. I expect stats of around 50 SB's, 100 Runs, 60 RBI's .350 OBP, and .410 SLG.
5.11 Francisco Liriano SP MIN
When healthy, Lierano can be one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. He bounced back from a dissapointing 2009 to put up good numbers last year. He is battling a shoulder injury this spring, but I expect him to be healthy by the beginning of the season.
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| 5 | Diddy
ID: 4820210
Sun, Mar 13, 2011, 17:51
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Reason for choosing the 6th spot
The 1st slot and 5th slot are gone. I am happy to get one of the top six guys in the first round.
1.06 Miguel Cabrera 1B DET
His off field trouble worried some people... but getting a potential top three player with the 6th pick is not too bad I guess.
2.11 Jose Reyes SS NYM
Shortstops is very thin this year and I want to get one of the top SS when I still can.
3.06 Matt Kemp OF LAD
Matt Kemp had an off year in 2010, and I hope he bounce back this year. If he did, it is a good pick at #38 overall.
4.11 Zack Greinke SP MIL
SP's run. astade started the round by drafting Josh Johnson and Ubaldo Jimenez. Out of the next 16 picks, 9 of them are SP's. I like Greinke's chance of posting good numbers with the move to a strong NL team.
5.06 Billy Butler 1B KAN
Playing for the Royals hurt counting stats for sure. I still can't believe he is just 25. Is this the year that he finally hit more than 25 HR's?
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| 6 | Toral
ID: 29223113
Sun, Mar 13, 2011, 20:04
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0.13 14th position
12 through 15 were left when I picked. That was fine with me as after the top 2, I saw a vague amorphous mass of a round's worth of players any of which I would take. In planning for the pick I decided that in this case the decisive factor would be depth in the second round -- how late could I go in the 2nd before hitting a clear dropoff in quality. I figured there were 17 or 18 players to be selected before the dropoff and so picking 3rd in the second round was safe. I also like 14 position because it allows you to assess the positional needs of numbers 15 and 16 before picking.
1.14 Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY
I wanted one of the top three third basemen in the first round, as there's a substantional dropoff after the top 4 (including Zimmerman, who I wasn't really thinking of, but would have if the top 3 were all taken). This was a case where queue-leaving was impossible, as I needed to know how many of the 3 3rd basemen were gone before I could picked. Longoria and Wright were snatched just ahead of me so A-Rod was left. His big decline last year was in OBP, caused by walking less; he's a smart enough player to adjust for that by being more selective, as some players do when it hits them that they're in a decline phase.
Youkilis was listed as a 1Bman when taken but I imagine will play 3rd when he gets his eligibility so this was the middle of a rather neat 5-player run on third basemen. First "snatch" of the draft for me as I would have taken David Wright if Seattle Zen hadn't. (A double snatch actually since Longoria went just before that).
2.03 Prince Fielder, 1B, Mil
There were 3 same-tier players I was interested in when I got to my second round, Fielder, Teixeira (2.05) and Lincecum (2.07). (You could throw Holliday in there but I've erred in the past by picking OFs too early and wanted to wait on them a bit.) Lincecum disappointed me last year and I can do without pitchers early. I liked the idea of getting the corner positions covered early. I spent a lot of time comparing Fielder and Teixeira. Fielder has the better 2009 to try to make a come back to, and is still only 26, but does he realize that he needs to play in some sort of shape? It's a contract year and I'm hoping that this will be a motivator. .
3.14 Justin Morneau, 1B, Min
Didn't I just pick a first baseman? Yes, but CI is a real independent position too. It doesn't have to be filled by whoever's left after the starting first basemen have been taken. Morneau stood out here as an obvious value pick -- if he is healthy, standing out way ahead of every first baseban except Butler. He was playing at MVP-calibre skill when hurt last year. Everyone has been insisting he is, and a concussion shouldn't be hampering him now. The Twins are "working him back in easy" but I attribute this to an abundance of caution. As to recurrence of concussion -- unless they make first base a tackling position I'm not worried about it.
4.03 B. J. Upton, OF, TB
This might have seemed a bit off as there were other outfielders around who project slightly better than Upton, such as Alex Rios (4.07) and Ellsbury (4.06). I like Upton because: getting those 40 steals takes pressure off in the MI position and reduces the need to take speed-only players later and Upton unquestionably has a wealth of untapped potential. Just a half-decent improvement in batting average should give him an 800+ OPS and working with Rod Carew in the offseason can't hurt any; I have RBI men and can use Upton's 90+ runs.
We aren't yet two rounds away from my 5th-round pick as I write this, and I won't quite want to discuss my 5th and 6th round thinking just yet so I'll leave the 5th round rationale for the next set.
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| 7 | Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Sun, Mar 13, 2011, 21:35
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Draft slot - Only had two choices. Twelve or thirteen. Took the highest.
1.12 Evan Longoria (3B, TB) -
Is he really there with the 12th pick? No rationale necessary. Third base is way too light this season to not hurry up and click ‘Draft Player’.
2.05 Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY) -
One of the last available 1B boppers without many questions, and surrounded by talent.
3.12 Clayton Kershaw (SP, LAD) -
I’m more of an AL-guy, so didn’t realize how good Kershaw is until I started scouting him. 200+ Ks. Good ratios. Young talent in a pitchers park. I’ve been without a reliable ace in the RIBC leagues in a couple years, so I hope he works for me.
4.05 Derek Jeter (SS, NYY) -
I was poorly prepared for this pick. I was away from the computer for hours, and when it was my turn, I picked via my iphone. All I had was a bunch of names in my queue in no real order. Looking back, at the picks that followed this one, I probably would have ended up choosing between Ellsbury and Jeter anyways, so it’s all good.
5.12 Heath Bell (RP, SD) -
I’ve gone back for several RIBC draft histories, and closers always start getting picked by the middle of round 5 … and here we are at 5.12, and none have been picked. I’ve never taken a top-shelf closer in RIBC before, so maybe I’ll give this strategy a try. I've got 4 guys in tier one. There are four managers that all pick twice before I pick again, so it was possible all 4 could be gone by the time I come up again … so I had to take one now.
But who is the best closer? MLB.com has Rivera at #1. ESPN has Wilson at #1. Rotowire has Feliz at #1. But ... all three sites have Heath Bell at #2. I decide that, despite the possibility of trade, Heath Bell is the best closer out there. I would have been happy with any of the top-4, but did not want to risk the chance of all four being gone by pick 6.05.
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| 8 | JeffG
ID: 47112621
Sun, Mar 13, 2011, 22:11
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0.11 Pick 10 10-15 were left. Picked 10 the highest available. No real reason.
1.10 Robinson Cano 2B NYY.
Pre draft I had thought CarGo (1.04) may have made it here because in the late part of rd1, I usually key in on a bopper. I can't fault any of the prior drafted players however Cano dropped right into my lap. Cano slugged over .520 each of the last two years, and even if that falls off, no other 2B is going to come near it. Robbie finally became more patient last season which saw his OBP finally join the 2B leaders. Throw in expected triple digits for R and RBI, and I have the guy who will lead his position in four categories, a few of them with huge gaps over the next on the list. Robinson Cano - Don't You Know!
2.07 Tim Lincecom SP SF
After my last pick, I really was hoping one of the next 4 first baseman would make it back to me over the next 10 picks. None did. Josh Hamilton would've been nice here, but he too went. Lincecom became my second no brainer. The Freak led the NL in K the last 3 seasons, and averages just under 10K per nine innings. His ERA and WHIP took a dip (a huge dip) in 2010 compared to his career averages mostly due to one bad month, so I am expecting he can revert closer to his '08 & '09 sub 3 and 1.1X. Also should be a lock for 15 wins.
3.10 Adrian Beltre 3B Tex
My queue got picked clean in the four selections leading up to this slot. Not surprising however early in a draft. Thought about CC Sabathia but did not want two starters this early at the cost of high ranking offensive players. Beltre was a beast for Boston last season, similar to how he was in his last year with the Dodgers in '04, the last time he played for a contract. The problem is you take those two years out and his career is very forgettable. I really do not know what to expect out of Beltre this season. Were his walk-years the flukes or the rest of his career? I'm hoping that batting in a potent Ranger lineup will at least keep him closer to his recent success and just blame his bad years on Seattle.
4.07 Alex Rios OF CWS
Swiped 30 bags last season and at least 20 in each of the last 3 seasons. Out of the guys who are going to give 20+ steals, Alex is the probably only one projected to be batting cleanup this season. That may lower his steals expectation, but should give me a steals guy who will have decent productivity. A little scary in the OBP category.
5.10 Chris Carpenter SP StL
Thought about starting the closer parade, but only 10 picks before I go again and I think the top 5 or 6 RP are pretty interchangable. Can Carpenter really still be available with 19 SP off the board? I've seen him as high as a top-10 pitcher in various rankings, but none past top-15. Yes, he is the only top-20 SP who is not a big K guy, but he should make up for that with a decent ERA and WHIP. Yes, Carp has the rep of being an injury risk and is battling something or another this spring, but he has made almost all his starts the last 2 years and should be good with the ratios.
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| 9 | astade
ID: 78462922
Mon, Mar 14, 2011, 00:37
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Pick 16 -
I thought about taking one of the lower picks but I couldn't bring myself to do it when I looked at the top 100 players. In my estimate, there was a drop-off after the top 20. I also knew that with a busy work schedule that I wouldn't be able to check in that often so picking at the end seemed convenient. The only downside is that predicting 'runs' during the draft becomes an important aspect. With 30 picks in between it's easy to lose out on a specific position because folks in the middle can snare the last player in a tier. I'm basically going on less in-draft info and trusting my gut.
1.16 Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Bos
I wanted a corner infielder or pitcher here and unfortunately Zimmerman/Halladay didn't make it to me. With Crawford and Gonzalez joining the fray, I like the Boston lineup (even as a Yankees fan). Youk is fully recovered from a thumb injury and delivers in most categories. Not a sexy pick but I think he will do well, especially in an OBP league.
2.01 Josh Hamilton, OF, Tex
A slugging OF-er that can hit .350 and hit 30 HRs...I just hope he doesn't get injured (again). I strongly considered Teixeira and I probably should have taken him here as a more solid, conservative pick. My season is already in flames.
3.16 Josh Johnson, SP, Fla
4.01 Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Col
I've lumped these picks together because I started doing research for these picks and I knew I wanted at least one starting pitcher. The other pick? Probably a decent infielder...Except none stood out to me and when comparing Johnson to Jimenez it was a push, so why not draft them both? That is the luxury (probably not the right term) of having back-to-back picks. Usually in these drafts I try to pick one SP in the first 5 rounds. So I took a considerable detour from my usual draft practice! These guys are both 27 and have had a couple of solid years. After picking them, I have to believe my pitching to be on pretty solid ground.
5.16 Carlos Marmol, RP, ChC
I had no idea what to do here. I needed to bolster my offense. Speed seemed to be a good idea but I didn't see anyone worth drafting. So I decided to look at previous RIBC drafts to see how things should play out over the next 2 rounds. In the past, most of the top level Relievers were taken in rounds 5-8. In the current draft only Bell had been drafted. Here was my opportunity to draft a top-tier player without feeling like I was reaching. Marmol should get 35+ saves on a decent Cubs team and provide peripherals to boot!
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| 10 | WG
ID: 25148814
Mon, Mar 14, 2011, 14:12
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Slot 2
I was pretty surprised to get the 2 slot with the 8th pick of picks. I can see why the picks before me went for different slots but I was pretty happy/surprised the 2 slot fell.
1.02 Hanley Ramirez, SS, Fla
Not much explanation necessary here... Hanley is ranked either the best or 2nd best player by most sites and publications, and I think that holds up under RIBC parameters as well.
2.15 Felix Hernandez, SP, Sea
I expected to go hitter with my first 3 picks but I couldn't pass up on Felix at this point. He goes much earlier in most drafts and is pretty widely considered the 2nd best SP. The only other thing I considered was taking Adam Dunn, and then hoping Heyward or Justin Upton fell to 3.02.
3.02 Jason Heyward, OF, Atl
Dunn didn't make it here or I would have taken him. So it was between Heyward and Upton for me, and I went with Heyward for safer percentages. He put up a .393 OBP as a rookie while Upton hasn't topped .366 the past 3 years; I anticipate their SLG being about the same. Upton will probably get at least 10 more SB but since I had Hanley already this wasn't a big concern at this point.
4.15 Tommy Hanson, SP, Atl
Again, I was planning on going hitter hitter here, but Hanson stood out again. Though I like all the SP that went before him, I was a bit surprised they were picked before Hanson. With Felix and Hanson now I feel like I can wait on pitching for a while, and planned on going hitter with the next 3 picks.
5.02 Brian McCann, C, Atl
A little weird picking 3 Braves with 5 picks being a Mets fan but I couldn't help it. I was hoping Santana would fall here, as his OBP should be much better than McCann's (.401 v. .375 last year) with similar SLG. I actually considered Jay Bruce here, but took McCann for the position scarcity. I was very surprised Bruce fell to me at 6.15.
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| 11 | taxman
ID: 141371911
Mon, Mar 14, 2011, 19:33
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Reason to choose 1st Pick Easy. With 1st choice to choose pick position, as hard as I tried. I could not find a reason to not have Pujols on my team.
1.01Albert Pujols, 1B, Cards
Pujols is a no-brainer in a contract year. For the past 4-5 years he has pretty much been the universal overall opening pick in most drafts.
I project another extraordinary season that will generate 115 runs, 120, RBI’s, .420 OB% , .600 slug% and 10 SB as a kicker. His presence on a roster in RIBC will help cover for sucky OB and slug % generated by the SB boys and MI we need to roster.
2.16Adam Dunn, DH/1B, White Sox
Dunn is a big stretch for 32nd pick, however, I had him last season and he literally carried my team for weeks at a time. He is surrounded by a far better offense which should resulting in more opportunities to both score and drive in runs. In the smaller confines of his new stadium which rewards left handed power hitters (+.17% HR) rather than penalize them as does DC stadium( -6% HR), Dunn should approach 40HR, resulting 110 RBI, 95 runs, .380 OB% and .560% slug. Same as Pujols, Dunn will provide cover for the lighter hitting SB and MI guys to be drafted later.
3.01 Cliff Lee, SP, Phils
OK, I admit to reveling in the Ranger’s historic World Series appearance. Lee got them to the WS before becoming human. Lee seems to be in a class by himself looking SP’s ratio of K/W. Lee doesn’t seem to ever issue a BB. Halladay generates lower WHIP and ERA with over 50% of balls-in-play hit on ground. Lee generates 40% grounders, however I think he will keep his WHIP under .115% and ERA under 3.25, achieve 16 wins and 185 K’s. These are great numbers. The WHIP and ERA categories kicked my but last year, I hope this will change that.
4.16Carlos Santana, C, Indians I rate Santana as one of top 5 producers at C. Santana gave the Indians a glimpse of his talent last year before wrecking a knee. Indians plan to keep him fresher by including time at 1B. Santana has an excellent eye for a young power hitter with a 17% BB rate. His OB % S/B in the .400 range and he’s capable of a .450 slugging %. Since the Cleveland cupboard is mostly empty, the lack of a supporting cast limits his R and RBI totals to @ 80 each, but the bonus is Pujols like 10 SB.
5.01 Matt Cain, SP, Giants
Speaking earlier about the World Serious, Cain (and other Giant Ps) put on a show. The past 2 seasons, Cain has been at or below the 3.00 ERA and 1.20 levels. With the positive WS experience, I look for Cain to put up a 3.10 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP, increase his wins to 16 and generate 175 K. These are quality numbers.
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| 13 | reebbertxx
ID: 3923515
Mon, Mar 21, 2011, 21:33
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I wanted to draft towards the middle so I took #8. In hindsight I found myself taking players I really didn't want so I should have taken a higher pick.
1.08 Carl Crawford, of, Red Sox
I was eying either Crawford or Gonzales with this pick. Dave made that choice for me by taking Gonzales the pick before me. I'm happy getting a guy who gives me a good base in steals and will also help me everywhere else. Should see a slight up-tick in RBI's and runs in a hitters park in the middle of a stacked lineup.
2.9 Jon Lester. SP , Red Sox
Was hoping one of the big 1b guys would fall to me here but was not to be. I considered Felix here but I think Lester still has upside in ERA and WHIP while getting equal K's and more W's. The fact that he is my favorite player didn't hurt either.
3.08, Dan Uggla, 2B, Braves
Was real happy to get Uggla here. Low end numbers should be .350/.480/90/90 and I like him to beat a few of those. At a scarce position like 2b I loved this pick.
4.09, Paul Konerko, 1B, White Sox
Hated this pick but felt like I needed a 1B here. Konerko is getting older but has always been a good OBP and SLG guy. I don't need a 2010 season out of him just something along the lines of his career averages.
5.08, Chris Young, OF, Diamondbacks
Seemed a good spot for my 2nd OF. Young is a poor mans Carl Crawford. In most leagues his average brings his value down but not so much here. I will be happy if he can replicate his 2010 numbers.
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| 14 | Seattle Zen
Leader
ID: 055343019
Tue, Mar 22, 2011, 11:22
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Having the short straw shoved into my paw was not what I had in mind to start the season, the ultimate in inauspiciousness. I am grateful that I did not end up with the 16th pick. The value difference between the number one pick and a first rounder in the teens is usually around $10 or more in a $260 auction. Well, it is what it is.
I come into the draft with three targets, Carlos Beltran, Josh Willingham and Jason Bartlett. I figure that all three of these players will be undervalued and I want to get them in the second half, Bartlett especially because by not landing Hanley or Tulo, shortstops are all awful, Bartlett could be as good as someone taken in the sixth round.
I immediately put my focus on my second round pick, number 20. I was really hoping that I would land Prince Fielder, therefore I didn’t want to take a first baseman at 13 unless Cabrera fell. I was also thinking that I could target ARod at number 20. I had 1.13 David Wright as my 13th overall, the top 3rd baseman. I had Matt Holliday as the 10th overall and when it was my turn to pick, I hoped that I could land either Fielder or Holliday at 20, there was no way Wright would still be there.
Why do I like Wright and 2.4.20 Matt Holliday? Both could top 100 in runs and rbis, Wright should slug over .500 and steal 20 bases, Holliday will steal double digits, so both are five cat stars. I may regret not taking Tex or Howard as first basemen are flying off the shelves.
It’s funny, in a local keeper league, I traded Wright for Holliday and change back in 2005. Ever since, I’ve been rooting against David and for Matt. In the end, David will most likely prevail because he’s three years younger, but so far Matt has had four slightly better years to Wright’s two. This is the first time I’ve had Wright since then. I can now see why some guys have 10 or more roto teams, you can’t hold irrational grudges against players when you draft, trade, cheer or mock every player at some time over the years.
And because Toral snatched up Fielder, I ended up with both guys in my famous 2005 trade. Time to start sticking pins into my “now more slender” Prince voodoo doll.
Looking at how RIBC broke down, man, I wish I was in the bigs this year, I could have had both Ryan Braun and Fielder!
Lots of great players vanish in the 27 picks between mine, and with Mauer off the board, I am officially punting catcher. I had 3.13.45 Jason Werth as my 24th overall player coming into the draft and the 7th outfielder. I’m not too keen on going with two OF’s in my first three, but it’s hard to pass another five cat monster. Yes, he will miss Citizens Park, but I also think he thrives under low pressure and there is no lower pressure than being a National. I probably would have taken Uggla has he been available, but I’m glad that I didn’t as I think he and Weeks are a coin flip. I was surprised to see Jered Weaver go shortly afterwards. I had a two person Q with 4.4.52 Rickie Weeks and Weaver on it when Bean snatched him. I was terrified that Toral would pilfer Weeks from my grasp, he couldn’t take TWO of my coveted Brewers, could he? I believe Weeks will steal anywhere from 15-25 bases this season as their new manager likes to run. Health is a skill and Weeks has only shown it recently. I had him as my fourth second baseman after the demise of Utley. If he stays healthy, he’s a top 30 player this season.
However, should I have taken Cole Hamels? I felt comfortable with the quality of arms in the pool when I choose Weeks, but eight of the next 13 picks are great starters. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a SP run before. I’m sweating the fact that 18 starters are off the board and I don’t have one yet. With five picks to go there are three SP’s I covet: F Liriano, Chris Carpenter and 5.13.77 Shawn Markum. I can’t believe my eyes when Liriano and Carpenter are picked right ahead of me.
Are you kidding me? Isiah Thomas goes beast mode and wins his second consecutive Pac-10 Conference Tourney MVP by dropping 28 on Arizona, including the game winner at the buzzer. I was jumping up and down like a madman, what a crazy finish to an up-and-down year.
My wife and I watch the foreign film Oscar-nominated Dogtooth, out of Greece. WHOA! This is way out there in David Lynch-land, but with more sex. And the strange thing is my sister suggested it… If your wife or girlfriend ever suggests you home school your kids, tell her this is what happens to home schooled kids as you start the movie. Am I right, Perm Dude?
I don’t set my Q to auto-pick overnight because I want to sleep on my next pick. I have the feeling that this pick may be the key to my squad. I have five players in mind and all five are available when I wake up. If I stuck to my pre-season rankings, I would go with Hunter Pence. My rankings skew towards five category producers. He should steal 15~16 bases, slug .480 and score over 80 runs and RBI. But now I look at his OBP and it ain’t that great. Furthermore, there are bargain OF I have targeted and he would be my third. Same problem with Mike Stanton. I’m gaga over his SLG and RBI potential. I’m feeling confident knowing my first four picks will all contribute steals and I have two more MI holes who should contribute steals as well, so I should go focus on power. But what if he has a slump, won’t he be moved down in the order? I need a first baseman and Kendrys Morales has added an “S” to his first name. Is it for “snap”, the sound his leg made? I’m terrified that he broke his leg in May and he still is not ready. All reports confirm that he won’t be ready by Opening Day. I don’t like the sound of that. So it comes down to Kung Fu Panda and 6.4.84 Pedro Alvarez. Sandoval has first base eligibility. That’s nice, but it is a very small concern right now because I have CI open. Regardless of who is picked, I’m taking another first baseman as my last corner infielder. I think they are both excellent ball players and I believe both of them will end up with better stats than Adrian Beltre, Michael Young, McGehee and Aramis Ramirez. They are both young, Pablo is coming off a disappointing season and I heard he lost 200 lbs or something, there goes his power. Alvarez is a MLB darling star-in-the-making. I am hoping he can knock in 100 runners and slug .500.
I sure am hoping that 20 closers don’t fly off the board. The four runners up come off quickly, Mike Stanton at 98 is a great price to pay for his huge upside. I load my closers into my Q and cross my fingers. Papelbon is my fourth ranked closer and I get so close to landing him. 7.13.109 KRod is number 9 on my list and I’m happy to have him. He and the Mets will do better in 2011. My two person Q gets hit immediately as Toral takes one of my outfield targets in Markakis.
No starters jump out at me at this point. I wonder how many closers will remain at pick 141, my 9th rounder? I have to figure that just about every team who did not grab one in round eight will in the 9th. But I have my eye on a bopper whose career OBP is remarkable. A slugger who has changed leagues and overcome the plantar fasciitis that plagued his 2010 season. I’m sitting here with a one man Q confident that Toral has filled his corner fielders and won’t take him. I’m expecting a bounceback season out of 8.4.116 Carlos Pena.
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| 15 | astade
ID: 78462922
Wed, Mar 23, 2011, 00:07
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nice wrap-up, Zen. that was a fun read.
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| 16 | Seattle Zen
Leader
ID: 055343019
Wed, Mar 23, 2011, 00:42
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Thanks, astade. I've done something like this for four or five years in either RIBC or the Political Keeper league as a way to remember what I was thinking during the draft, maybe I will recognize some strategy flaws in retrospect.
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| 17 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Wed, Mar 30, 2011, 22:05
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3rd Pick
3rd pick and 9-15th were remaining. Didn't think too hard on this and grabbed 3rd thinking I could get one of the top 2 short stops.
1.03 Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Col
There's a big dropoff at short stop after Hanley and Tulo and I'm glad to get one of these two. I may have even picked Tulo over Hanley if I was faced with the choice given his advantage in slugging %.
2.14 Nelson Cruz, OF, Tex
I see Cruz as the best talent remaining with the ability to steal 20 bases while excelling in the % stats. The downside with him is injury risk as he went to the DL 3 times last year due to hamstring issues.
3.03 Victor Martinez, C, Det
The general theory I and many follow for catchers are that you either take one early or late, not in between. So I took the opportunity here to take one of the top catchers in VMart. I like him even more than usual this year since he is slated to be the everyday DH in Detroit which should allow him to stay in the lineup more and therefore increase his counting stats.
4.14 David Price, SP, TB
Still needed a SP and Price was the best one left. Price was awesome last year posting a 2.72 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. His 19 wins should go down after Tampa's mini fire sale but he does have the talent to repeat his other numbers.
5.03 Martin Prado, 2B/3B/OF, Atl
3 MI slots to fill in a 16 team league puts extra emphasis on these already shallow positions. Prado was very solid last year and is well trusted by Atlanta as he had all of his ABs last year batting 1st, 2nd, or 3rd. The position flexibility is also a plus.
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| 18 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Thu, Mar 31, 2011, 21:30
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Sorry for being less than diligent in getting the rationales taken care of, but sometimes life gets in the way. In any event, this was a tremendous draft, well paced for the most part, and thanks to Judy for organizing everything. I'm sure I'm not the only one to see my queue disappear routinely before my turn rolled around.
I selected 7th, as I normally like to pick somewhere in the middle and have a tremendous disdain for being on the ends of a draft. I figured I'd end up with a top slugger and wound up with 1.07 Adrian Gonzalez 1B Bos. As a Yankee fan, I hate to think of the destruction he can cause in Bos. With my next picks I choose 2.10 Andrew McCutcheon OF Pit and 3.07 Shin-Soo Choo OF Cle. I really didn't want to select two OFers in a row, but actually meant to take Choo in round 2, so when he was available in round 3, well, I just had to take him. With these two I get a nice start in filling a need for SB's, both should score 90-100 runs. Choo excells in all five of our cats.
Normally in these drafts, I try and shy aware from pitching until at least the 5th round. When my turn came up in round 4, I pondered a long time, I really wanted to fill an infield slot. But my highest ranked hitters were OFer's, and with two already I veered a little of strategy and selected 4.10 Cole Hamels SP Phi. There had been a bunch of starters taken already and as it turned out, 6 of the next 7 picks were SPers I had Cole as the 6th ranked pitcher so I feel good about the selection and figure on 17 or so wins, great ratios and over 200K's
Round 5 and now I really felt I needed to choose a MI. I had numerous in mind, and actually almost decided to take Sandoval here for 3b, but opted for 5.07 Kelly Johnson 2B Ari. Most of the top second baseman were gone, I was very tempted by Zobrist, but think Kelly can have another solid season. He won't WOW you, but he's solid in all areas. I do kind of with I took Stephen Drew with this pick
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