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Subject: RIBC PCL 2011 RATIONALES #6 - 10
Posted by: judy
- Leader [7771722] Wed, Mar 16, 2011, 17:35
Keep on writin' |
| 1 | Nerfherders
ID: 347242717
Wed, Mar 16, 2011, 18:58
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6.08 Joakim Soria, RP KC I hit the tail end of the elite closer run, and decided to snag the last of them. Soria is arguably the best of them. I keep wanting to wait for closers but then I can't help myself. In a league where not every team can get two, you have to jump.
7.09 Brett Garder, OF NYY I had the idea of grabbing a R/SB OF somewhere in the draft, as there are quite a few of them around. Unlike many of the others, Gardner actually gives OBP as well. Assuming he hits at or near the top of the Yankees order, he should score alot of runs. This pick essentially means I don't need to worry about SB for the rest of the draft.
8.08 Jose Valverde, RP DET I was at a bit of a loss with this pick. I wanted a 1B here but the two I had targeted went. I couldn't bite on the remaining 1B and there was alot of SP left on the board, so I decided to get my second RP here. Not a bad choice, Valverde is solid if unspectacular.
9.09 Wandy Rodriguez, SP HOU I had the 9th round pegged for my second SP, and I went with one of the more consistent pitchers out there. he was excellent in the second half last year, and I suspect he will continue his good work.
10.08 Luke Scott, 1B/OF BAL In Yahoo at least, he qualifies at 1B, and was probably the best 1B option left available. Scott had his best season last year, and before that has been a pretty consistent run producer. He saved my bacon last season and just for that deserves to be on my team again.
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| 2 | JeffG
ID: 47112621
Wed, Mar 16, 2011, 19:48
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6.07 Mariano Rivera RP NYY
Three closers selected so far, the real run is coming so got to grab one or pick from the remains later. I'd have been happy with any of the top-5 closers. (Cue "Enter Sandman"). As long as the ageless Mo stays ageless, he is among the elite closers every year in terms of the ratios and K rate and is always good for at minimum of 30 saves.
7.10 Ben Zobrist 2B TB (Also has 1B OF eligibility)
He is a good on base guy and should swipe 15+ bags. He was a up and comer last season following his break out 27HR season of '09 but lost his extra base swing in '10. I'd never expect his 2009 Zorilla numbers to resurface but they do show his potential. Even with a minor bounce back this season he'll prove very serviceable in very tough to fill later MI slot.
8.07 David Ortiz DH Bos
This pick is a serious risk/reward move, perhaps a few rounds too soon. Big Papi very well could have been out of baseball based on his early season performance last year through mid-May, so a huge power drought could happen again, however he still has shown some pop, and is still feared enough to be frequently pitched around. Even in his current decline, could still be a threat to slug .480, drive in 90-100, and score 75+
9.10 Ryan Franklin RP StL
Grabbing closer #2. Franklin's job is much more secure than the closers left on the board. I thought about bypassing a RP all together here but just wanted to grab my 2nd now and secure the middle of the road in the saves cat. Now I can move on.
10.07 Geovany Soto C ChC
Once the five top catchers were gone by pick 5-02, I felt there was no one who warranted a look at this position for a while. My leaguemates obviously felt the same as no other catcher has been picked yet. Over the last couple of rounds, I started to look at Soto as a "best of the rest". When this pick came up for me, after a look at the pitchers and other hitters left on the board to fill my other needs, no one really felt like a must get to me so I grabbed Soto here hoping it will keep me from playing the catcher carousal this season. There are other remaining catchers that can be grabbed in a later round that will offer as much production in the R or RBI categories but I feel compared to the rest of the field Soto is a quality play for the ratios.
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| 3 | WG
ID: 25148814
Wed, Mar 16, 2011, 19:48
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6.15 Jay Bruce, OF, Cin
I considered Bruce with my last pick so was pretty surprised he was still available here. There's a slight risk Bruce's OBP could be detrimental but ESPN projects .351, and he was .376 after the ASB last year. I see Bruce having a huge year and have tried to get him in all my drafts.
7.02 Mike Stanton, OF, Fla
Again, I was surprised a slugger like Stanton was still there but I tend to reach for young guys (that's what she said?). Like Bruce, Stanton's OBP could hurt as he was .326 last year, but ESPN projects .341. I figured I could withstand a lower OBP since Hanley, Heyward, and McCann are projected .392, .392, and .371, respectively. Both Bruce and Stanton should easily SLG better than .500, so I like my offensive stats so far with my first 5 hitters.
8.15 Brandon Morrow, SP, Tor
I made a mistake here with my 8/9 picks not taking a closer. I generally take SP early, which allows me to withstand lousy closers' bad ERAs and WHIPs when I later take them for saves. I tried doing that again here, adding Morrow to my staff of Felix and Hanson. Like most people I envision a big year for Morrow, projecting something like a 4.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 200 K. Really, I was hoping Dan Hudson would fall to this pick though.
9.02 Michael Bourn, OF, Hou
If I could get a do over, I'd take Lidge, Franklin, or Cordero with this pick and Juan Pierre with one of my 10/11 picks. With good hitters already but only about 55 SB, I wanted a premier base stealer to add to the mix. I'm quite surprised Pierre lasted as long as he did after putting up 68 SB last year.
10.15 Fernando Rodney, RP, LAA
I knew it would be slim pickings of closers at this point; I just didn't think it would be this bad. I thought Rodney was the safest bet remaining for saves, even though his WHIP could be on the wrong side of 1.50. But a 1 in saves would be killer, so I had to pick Rodney here.
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| 4 | Toral
ID: 29223113
Thu, Mar 17, 2011, 10:12
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5.14 Stephen Drew, SS Ari
As I headed towards my 5th and 6th round picks, I wanted my first middle infielder and my first starting pitcher. At SP there were a number of similar candidates so I figured I could leave that one to the way up. But there was danger that I might lose my MI before I got pack to pick #6. I spent some time studying not so much who I wanted but at which position I might suffer the biggest disadvantage by waiting another round to pick.
At shortstop I looked at Drew, Starlin Castro (8.06)and Alexei Ramirez (7.01). At second base, there were 3 about equal players hanging around, plus the problematically injured Chase Utley (7.16) and Brian Roberts.
Drew is 28. He has untapped potential. Even without dipping into that potential, he's good for an 800+ OPS, 5-10 SB, and 140-150 total runs and RBIs. He had a big second half (.862 OPS) but then he's done that before in 2008 before bombing the year after. At this slot I figure him to be a safe pick with considerable upside.
6.03 Max Scherzer, SP, Det
Teams have done well in RIBC before without an "ace", and early drafted aces have often disappointed me. I believe that it's possible to do well with 5 or 6 carefully selected non-ace starters, so it's time to put this theory to the test.
Scherzer, Chad Billingsley (8.11) and Yovardi Gallardo (6.09) were the 3 I considered here. After a terrible early start that got him sent back to the minors, Scherzer went 11-7, 2.46 with 158 strikeouts in 154 innings. Everyone seems to agree that he has the stuff to be an ace. It will be nice to own him when he puts it all together.
7.14 Nick Markakis, OF, Bal
What's Markakis doing here, still available, I thought? I was considering taking him 3 rounds ago. This position is actually not far from his ADP based on the last stats I had bothered to print out, but in an OBP league he should be worth more. He'll gain .075 or more from AVG to OBP through walks. He was the only guy left from the first page of my expected-value sheet. Maybe because he has been a disappointment, people ignore what he can do. He's 27 and so could do more. His counting stats will improve if the Oriole offence does, and it should.
Despite my slavering over Markakis, i would have forced myself to take Jonathan Papelbon if TD hadn't grabbed him at 7.11. But with him gone I would have a choice from a veritable plethora of mediocre closer candidates on the way back up the draft order and could wait.
8.03 J. J. Putz, RP, Ari
OK so now we're into the, let us say, 3rd tier of closers. These are folks who supposedly have the job straight up, are half decent pitchers, and have no immediate heir apparent behind them. I preferred Putz to the 2 ahead of me; my decision was between Putz, Axford, and Valverde. I was worried about Axford's control, and about Valverd being injured late last season. In the end I went back and forth between Putz and Valverde and couldn’t really tell you why I went for Putz. Maybe it was the neat name. One worry about Putz is that he was protected against tough left-handers by Matt Thornton last year. Valderde went at 8.09 and Axford at 8.10.
9.14 Matt Thornton, CWS
I was very much hoping that Thornton would be around to be my second closer. He’s been one of the very must consistent set-up men around over the last few years, striking out 12.1 batters per 9 innings last year. He’s a leftie, meaning there’s always the danger that he’ll be sent back to be a specialist, and Guillen isn’t committing himself to him over the kid [undrafted player]. But Thornton is good enough that he should emerge even if he doesn’t have the undispusted job in day one. Fantasy Baseball Index has Thornton as the #9 closer so I was happy to get him here. [Note: Guillen subsequently said that Thornton has “first dibs” on the closer job.]
10.03 Aaron Hill, 2B, Tor
I wanted a second baseman at before my 9th pick I checked to make sure that one would be available at pick 10. Brian Roberts is the most talented of the three, but at the time was out with a back injury, supposedly not serious, but he missed the first half last year with a back injury. Aaron Hill collapsed utterly lazy year, hitting .205, but in 2009 had a 38-103-108-.829 season. He’s not that good but should be halfway between the two years. Howie Kendrick was the safe choice of the three. He doesn’t walk, and hasn’t hit .300 or stolen bases like people had hoped, but he’s 27 and can be expected to do what he does regularly.
After a lot of back-and-forth, I put Kendrick 3rd, and astade took him at 9.16. I decided to breathe deeply and take the chance and put Roberts ahead of Hill.
Except I apparently forgot to inform my auto-queue of this, as it selected Hill for me. I had obviously forgotten to change it when I made the Roberts decision. This is one case where I should have set no queue and not picked until I could get the latest updates on Roberts’ health. Hopefully the autoqueue knows something and was trying to protect me. Roberts almost made it back to me, not being picked until 11.09.
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| 5 | judy
Leader
ID: 7771722
Thu, Mar 17, 2011, 10:57
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6.12 Jonathan Broxton RP LAD
Last year I probably lost my shot at a top finish due to my deciding to punt on the Saves category. I only had Lidge as my closer, and as you may recall he stank it up until after the All Star Break. My other RP kept the ERA and WHIP down, but the # of saves was pitiful. SO this year I decided I needed to get 2 legit closers. The closer run began with Bell at 5.12 and by the time it was my turn 6 were gone! So I had no choice. I picked Broxton who hopefully can rebound from his reported “anxiety” issues. I’ll take 25 saves? Good thing I took him there as 8 more closers disappeared by y 8.12 pick. What a run!
7.05 Elvis Andrus SS TEX
TIme to fill in the INF positions. Eight SS were gone already and in fact the previous picks stole the guys I wanted, but Andrus is not a bad option. He is ranked as high as the #4 SS. I will like his steals -- added to Shane’s and hope he also scores a lot of runs.
8.12 Huston Street RP COL
By now the number of closers taken was up to 15 and I figured that I had no choice but to get another one. I really did not want to, but looking at the grid I figured I had to move on it. 30 saves would be nice and a continued nice low WHIP would be great.
9.05 Madison Bumgarner SP SF
TIme for another SP. Thirty were gone by the time it was my turn, including a few in my Q. I was very surprised to see the run of SP start so early in the draft. Were you? Madison should win 12-15 games, have about 160 K’s and a decent WHIP (1.24 or so). Looks good to me.
10.12 Ian Stewart 3B COL
Time again for the INF. Decided to go for a 3B as the other INF spots are covered. Got caught with this position. Stewart was the 14th 3B chosen. A couple in my Q that I preferred were plucked away ahead of me. Stewart was steady last year, but I would like to see him step it up a bit in the SLG category for me. I am a little light there so far with this team.
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| 7 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Fri, Mar 18, 2011, 10:52
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6.06 Casey McGehee 3B MIL
I used my top 5 picks on 3 SP, 1 OF, 1 1B, so I needed to start filling some infield positions. Outfield position are easier to fill in middle rounds of the draft. McGehee has good power numbers, and I expect him to have another 100 RBI season hitting in the middle of the Brewers lineup. I also considered Michael Young.
7.11 Jonathan Papelbon RP BOS
10 closers had been chosen, and 7 since my last pick. I consider Papelbon a top 10 closer, I didn't think he would be available with my next pick. Papelbon struggled some last season which caused him to drop in the year's draft. I expect some improvement this season.
8.06 Starlin Castro SS CHC
I wanted to get a middle infielder with this pick because I didn't have any yet. Castro played well at age 20 last year, putting up decent numbers for a middle infielder. I expect him to struggle some this season, but still put up slightly better numbers this season.
9.11 Nick Swisher OF NYY
After filling some position needs, I decided to go after the best hitter available with my next two picks. In his two seasons with the Yankees, Swisher has averaged .365 OBP, .500 SLG, 85 RBI, and 85 R. If he gets numbers like this again this season which I fully expect, he is a great value for a 9th round pick.
10.06 Carlos Quentin OF CWS
When healthy over the last 3 years, Quentin has put up good numbers. He is only 28, and I think there is a good chance he will have a big season this year. Even if he only gets around 400 ABs, he is still worth playing when healthy.
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| 8 | Diddy
ID: 4820210
Sun, Mar 20, 2011, 11:41
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6.11 Neftali Feliz RP TEX
Time to draft a closer. Feliz has been saying he wanted to close all along, until I drafted him... he then publicly said that he wanted to start at some point (hopefully the Rangers didn't grant his wish this year).
7.06 Ichiro Suzuki OF SEA
Ichiro should be good for another 30SBs season. Playing for the Mariners hurts counting stats but he can provide solid average as a base stealer for my team.
8.11 Chad Billingsley SP LAD
Need a SP2 here, and Billingsley is probably the best remaining SP available.
9.06 Gordon Beckham 2B CWS
Again, just filling up necessary position (this time - 2B). Also considered Aaron Hill here, but Beckham edges out with a better projected OBP.
10.11 Frank Francisco RP TOR
Pretty much all the projected closer are gone at this point. If Francisco can keep the job all season and stay healthy, it should be all good.
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| 9 | reebbertxx
ID: 3923515
Mon, Mar 21, 2011, 22:06
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6.09,Gallardo, Yovani, SP, Brewers.
I'm paying for upside here but I love this guys potential as my #2 starter. The K's will be there and I'm hoping for a next step towards elite status.
7.08, Mark Reynolds, 3B, Orioles
I thought hard about Papelbon here but decided I needed a power 3B and they were all just about gone.Again I get another guy that would be useless in BA leagues but his OBP was .320 last year while batting .198. I like his chances to improve on that while possibly getting me 80 runs and 90 rbi's in a revamped Orioles lineup.
8.09, John Axford, RP, Brewers
I needed a rp here and he seemed the best left. If I had known I wasn't going to get a legit second closer I would have just punted the cat.
9.08 , Manny Ramirez, OF , Rays
In hindsight I should have taken Franklin/Cordero/Thorton. I do like Manny having something to prove but I did reach a lot more than I had to.
10.09, Ervin Santana, SP, Angels
I'm a fan of Ervin and still think he has upside. He is a good compliment to my first 2 starters. I don't think 15 wins with 175 k's and a 1.2 whip along with an ERA under 4 is that much of a reach.
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| 10 | Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Thu, Mar 24, 2011, 23:49
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6.05 Hunter Pence (OF, HOU) -
A nice player who will contribute across all 5 categories. Pence is 28 years old, so hopefully he’ll be peaking this season.
7.12 Chone Figgins (2B/3B, SEA) -
He’ll gain eligibility at 3B early in the season, so it will be nice to have flexibility. He’ll give me plenty of SBs batting first or second in the Mariner order. He’s having a solid Spring.
And once I decided I wanted a 2B with this pick, the first three I looked at said, “scheduled for MRI”, “Date to return unknown”, and “Date to return unknown”. By default, I take Figgins.
8.05 Colby Rasmus (OF, StL) -
I see a huge season out of this guy. A young guy with power and decent speed hitting in front ofAlbert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman. This is the sort of player, sixth round talent, that can get me back to the RIBC next year.
9.12 Clay Bucholtz (SP, BOS) -
I’m a little worried I bought into the Bucholtz hype too much. His K/9 numbers are lower than I would want from my #2 starting pitcher. But I will get good ratios and Ws. His 4-pitch arsenal and ability to limit HRs, should be good enough as a late 9th-round pick.
10.05 Brian Fuentes (RP, ANA) -
I’m not really happy with this one. It was an auto-pick from a queue that had not been sorted properly. If the news from the following day (that OAK closer Andrew Bailey should be OK) was different, I would feel completely different. Now I just have a middle reliever with a 10th round pick. Move along. Nothing to see here.
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| 11 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Wed, Mar 30, 2011, 22:29
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6.14 Kendry(s) Morales, 1B/DL, LAA
Originally thought Morales was nice value here. He slid because of questions about his return date and I even got him at the latest point out of all the RIBC drafts. At the point he was drafted he was supposed to be ready by opening day. Now, there is no timetable for his return and I would not have taken him knowing what I know now, then.
7.03 Aramis Ramirez, 3B, Chi
Needed a 3B still and couldn't pass on Aramis here despite his age and injury history. He can still hit (when healthy).
8.14 Angel Pagan, OF, NYM
Needed more speed on this team and Pagan had 37 SBs last year. Unlike other speedsters his %s won't kill me as he had a solid .765 OPS last season.
9.03 Jonathan Sanchez, SP, SF
Really like Sanchez. His walk rate is high but it doesn't kill him as he managed a 1.23 WHIP last season. He was also 13th in the majors last year with 205 Ks.
10.14 Drew Storen, RP, Was
I always wait on closers as I pick them just for saves and don't really put much weight on their other stats but I goofed and waited too long in this draft and wound up with Storen as my 1st closer.
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| 12 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Thu, Mar 31, 2011, 21:54
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Round 6, and I wanted another infielder, and in particular a third sacker. Even though I was tempted by Sandoval in round 5, now my choice would have been Pedro Alvarez, but he was taken a few picks earlier, so I wound up with 6.10 Pablo Sandoval 3B SF anyway. Pablo has apparently shed a few pounds, or maybe even more than a few, so I'm thinking he can be the hitter he was 2 years ago, nifty SLG and OBP, 80-90runs and RBI's and maybe even a few SB's. Round 7 found me 7.07 Chris Perez RP Cle. Just a hunch but I think Perez will be one of the better closers this year. I might have taken Bailey, but he came up lame around the time of this pick
I went looking for a SP here and wound up with 8.10 Daniel Hudson SP Ari. Hudson was tremendous at the end last year going 7-1, a 1.69 ERA and .84 WHIP. Lets see if he can build on that. 9.07 Brad Lidge RP Phi. Lets just say I hate this pick and leave it at that.
With my next pick I took 10.10 Adam Jones OF Balt. Jones never seems to live up to his potential, so maybe this is the year. Long been viewed with the potential to be a 30-30 guy, maybe this will be the year. The Orioles have added some offensive punch this year which may help.
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