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Subject: RIBC PCL 2011 RATIONALES #11 15
Posted by: judy
- Leader [7771722] Wed, Mar 16, 2011, 17:35
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| 1 | JeffG
ID: 47112621
Sat, Mar 19, 2011, 13:02
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11.10 Brett Anderson SP Oak
Still need a 1B (or two) but there are a few comparable to chose from so I'll grab one next. A decent #3 SP for my fantasy staff (if he can stay healthy). Playing in a pitcher's park I am hoping he can replicate his Sub 3 ERA from last year, but this year pitch more than half a season for double digit wins. Brett's a decent (slightly better than average) K and WHIP guy.
12.07 Adam Lind OF Tor (Also has 1B eligibility)
Starting to draft a little more on need. I need to address my 1B and CI position and get someone who can provide decent productivity. Here is another guy on my team who followed a monster '09 with a bust in '10. My expectations with Lind is '11 will land somewhere in the middle
13.10 Travis Snider OF Tor
Picking the more scarce positions early (2B MI C) leaves me with only one player I am planning to slot in the OF so far. I looked at a few OF options that would also give me SB help, and maybe should have went that way instead opting for someone whose better than the remaining pool on the SLG/RBI side.
14.07 JD Drew OF Bos
Grabbing another OF here. More than the other positions that thin out quicker, there are always potential productive outfielders to take in the second half of the draft, but each with more possibilities of a downside and selecting JD in the decline of his career certainly qualifies as a risk. Still I think his production and ratios can stand up to the other choices on the board, and I am again picking potential power over speed.
15.10 James Loney 1B LAD
After I picked Lind who has 1B eligibility in 12.07 I expected to complete my 1B/CI pickups in the next few rounds, but I needed OF help too and now watching my targets evaporate raised the urgency for a 1B. Loney may not have been the best choice with our format, but we'll plow through. If my team hurts too much at CI I may need to float Lincecum for a stud hitter trade mid season :)
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| 2 | Nerfherders
ID: 310111515
Sat, Mar 19, 2011, 14:57
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11.09 Brian Roberts, 2B BAL
I couldn't wait any longer with this pick. Roberts was sitting there and sitting there, and this was a point where the reward outweighs the risk. Back problems can really do in a hitter, but I am hopeful that he will be able to play at least 100 games this season at his usual level. Even that will make this pick a bargain at #169.
12.08 Ricky Nolasco, SP FLA
Nolasco is one of the most enigmatic pitchers in MLB. How can a guy with his peripherals allow so many runs? It is a question that makes Nolasco available this late in the draft. But with everything else that he does, it was a pretty easy choice here.
13.09 Neil Walker, 2B PIT
One of the rules I cling to is when you draft a position late, get his backup as soon as possible. This pick is insurance for Roberts. Walker was a revelation offensively in his rookie year last year, and I am hoping he can come close to that production in a full season. Honestly I was surprised he was still there in the 13th.
14.08 Jordan Zimmermann SP, WAS
I was looking for a 4th SP here with good numbers, and I was surprised to find so many SP taken at this point. Zimmermann has had some injury problems the last couple of years, but he was outstanding in his short season last year, and probably has the best stuff on the Nationals staff. If he can pitch 150+ innings he will be a great pick.
15.09 David Aardsma, RP SEA
This is another pick I was waiting and waiting for. I almost took him in the 10th, and considered him in every round thereafter. He is going to miss the first month of the season, but has the closer job upon his return, so I am thinking 20 saves with decent numbers. He is the Huston Street of 2011. And if I am right, getting 20 saves in the 15th round is a steal.
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| 3 | judy
Leader
ID: 7771722
Sat, Mar 19, 2011, 23:50
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11.05 Ryan Dempster SP CHC
Time for yet another SP. The good ones are going fast. Ryan was good for me last year. He does not win a ton of games with the Cubbies but with the exception of a game or two he has good control -- lots of K’s and a low WHIP and ERA. I do like the stat potential for my top 3 SP (Latos, Bumgarner and Dempster).
12.12 Ike Davis 1B NYM
Need to solidify the 1B position since Posey will most likely be my C. I just put his position as 1B to confuse you all! As much as I dislike drafting Mets, he was the best 1B left, the 19th chosen. Clearly this position is overrated, but people are doubling it already. Ike should help with SLG and R and RBI assuming the Mets don’t crash and burn like last year.
13.05 Raul Ibanez OF PHL
In the last year of his 3 year contract with the Phillies, Raoooooooooool as he is affectionately known in Philly, spent the winter rededicating himself to becoming stronger, yet more flexible. His spring training has been most excellent, and I have high hopes that it will carry over into the season. The real issue is where he will be batting since Utley is out. It looks like he will be in batting third and I am not sure just what that will do to his counting stats, but if Shane and JRoll get on, it might be nice. They will pitch to him, but probably not too much to Ryan.
14.12 Omar Infante INF FLA
I LOVE this guy. He can play almost anywhere and finally has a starting gig with the Fish. I had him last year and he did not disappoint. I am hoping for a good BA, hits and decent RBI’s, although he will be batting early in the order.
15.05 Michael Morse OF WASH
I decided, perhaps a bit too soon, to get some more SLG in the OF and chose this guy. He was the 57th OF we chose. He has the dreaded “potential” and I am thinking I should have waited here and gone for my 16 and 17 round SP instead. He will be the UTIL guy most of the time. He is scheduled to hit behind Zimm and Werth, so his RBI might be nice, but the NATS stink, so I need to lower my expectations. I wanted Crisp but dror snatched him with the pick right before mine! drat! Oh, well, maybe he will surprise me.
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| 4 | Toral
ID: 29223113
Sun, Mar 20, 2011, 08:36
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11.14 Matt Garza, SP, CHC
I had a list of six starting pitchers in mind for this pick. Three were stripped away before I picked: Anderson at 11.01, Dempster at 11.05, Hughes at 11.06. Garza was next on the list.
Garza had a nice season with Tampa last year, winning 15 games. His K/9 did drop a bit, but not to the point where his ability to continue to pitch effectively should be in doubt. The move to the Cubs is a mixed bag; he moves out of the AL East, out of the league with the DH, but to a hitter's park. Projections are all over the place as a result, but I'll go with 13 or 14 wins, 175 strikeouts, ERA below 3.75. Give me an excuse to watch some Cubs games on a hot summer day too.
The remaining two names on my list went very shortly thereafter: Danks at 12.01 and Beckett at 12.05.
12.03 Jason Bay, OF, NYM
Bay should have gone before this according to all the ranking systems I use, but I can understand why people would be wary of the guy. It's hard to know what to make of that 2010 season, even before he went out with a concussion. Some of the problem may be Citi Field, and if this league counted HR instead of SLG I'd avoid him too. I'll settle for a moderate comeback season with an .830 OPS, 80 runs and RBI plus 10 or so steals, and hope for much more.
13.14 Carlos Zambrano, SP, ChC
A list of 4 as it's time for another starting pitcher. List of 3, actually, after Gio Gonzalez was taken at 13.04.
Zambrano's tanturms and antics last year may obscure the fact that he's still a pretty good pitcher, putting up a 3.33 ERA last year, and is only 29. In his last 11 starts he had 8 wins and a 1.41 ERA. There's no reason why he can't win 13 games, strike out 160 batters, and have an ERA under 3.60.Or better. All he needs is to work a little on controlling his temper and his fastball (he walks too many).
14.03 Tsuyoshi Nishioka, MI, Min
It was time to pick an MI and I just hope that I didn’t leave it until too late. There was a delay before a pick and I spent it debating between the two top candidates left as Ian Desmond and Neil Walker. Eventually decided on Desmond. Then the pick finally gets made – and the pick is Ian Desmond. Followed immediately by Walker. So much for that.
I had to take a long look to decide whether there was anyone worth drafting here or whether I might as well wait another 2 rounds. I decided that Nishioka and Yunei Escobar (16.13) had enough of an advantage over the remaining candidates to be worth a shot.
Coming from Japan, it’s hard to know how to translate his stats. Last year he was spectacular, .429/.482, but that was better than previous seasons and the first time he was completely healthy for a whole season. He stole 22 bases, but his success percentage was low. Gardenhire has committed to him at second base and batting second; I’m hoping he will at least steal some bases, score some runs batting ahead of Mauer and Morneau, and not be a liability in the average stats.
15.14 Josh Willingham, OF, Oak
Looking at my options after my last pick, I had hoped Jose Tabata (14.13) might sneak through to be here but no such luck. And after taking him dror then grabbed Coco Crisp (15.04), who I was aslo considering.
Willingham sems to be one of those guys destined to play their whole careeres in pitchers' parks. Florida, Washington...and now Oakland. This obscures the fact that the man can hit. He has had knee and back problems which have reduced his counting stats, but hasn't had a bad OPS in the last 6 years. Put him in the middle of the lineup and keep him healthy and he could put together a massive year for a guy in round 15. Worrisome is that the As have a plethora of OF/DH/1B types and someone who goes into an extended slump could find himself squeezed out.
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| 5 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Sun, Mar 20, 2011, 11:35
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11.11 Placido Polanco 2B PHI
I needed someone for 2B, and there were few left. Polanco is eligible for both 2B and 3B which is a plus. At the start of the season, I expect him to hit near the top of the Phillies lineup with Utley out, so he should score plenty of runs. He doesn't have much power or steal many bases, but his other numbers should be OK.
12.06 Scott Rolen 3B CIN
Despite being labeled as injury prone, Rolen has averaged 450 ABs over the last three seasons, and averaged over .800 OBPS. I expect similar production this season which make this a good pick.
13.11 Asdrubal Cabrera SS CLE
I chose Cabrera as my 3rd MI. He broke his forearm last May and never fully recovered, so his stats suffered. Fully recovered in 2011, I expect him to put up numbers similar to 2009 which would make him a top 10 SS.
14.06 Jason Kubel OF MIN
Kubel is my 4th OF. If he produces like 2009 he will be a great pick, if like 2010 he will be a disappointment but still worth this pick. I expect stats somewhere in between.
15.11 Ryan Madson RP PHI
Over the last few seasons, Madson has played well as a setup man, but struggled as a closer, but I noticed some improvement when he filled in as closer at the end of 2010 after coming back from injury. At this point in their careers, Madson is a better choice for closer than Lidge, and I expect Madson to be the permanent Phillies closer by mid-season if not sooner.
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| 6 | Diddy
ID: 4820210
Sun, Mar 20, 2011, 12:04
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11.06 Phil Hughes SP NYY
Time for another SP. Hoping to get at least 14W's from Hughes this year.
12.11 Grady Sizemore OF CLE
A risk/reward pick. It will be a good pick if Sizemore came back strong and stay healthy all season. 15/15 is possible.
13.06 Michael Cuddyer 3B MIN
Very solid, consistent player. Playing time is always a little concern. He can also play OF, so it gives my team some flexibility.
14.11 Ryan Raburn OF DET
Looking to fill the MI for my team. Raburn has been solid the last two years while playing part time. He should have a shot for a full time gig this year.
15.06 Jorge Posada C NYY
Posada won't be catching as he will be DH (still eligible as a C in fantasy this year). Staying healthy is the only concern.
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| 7 | Seattle Zen
ID: 10732616
Tue, Mar 22, 2011, 12:56
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The only difference between these two statements:
Hi, Daddy. I’m home from Pre-school.
&
Hi, Daddy. I’m home from hanging out in a back alley carving up dead monkeys, getting covered in blood with a bunch of HIV-positive IV drug users…
is the deadliness of the viruses they bring home. My little one has brought home a cornucopia of viruses this winter and I’ve been more sick these past four months than I have been in the previous five years. I’m more susceptible to viruses during slow drafts because the waiting for you bums to make your picks drains my immune system and I’m sick today.
I need a second closer, but I don’t know why 9.13.141 Curtis Granderson is still available, even at last year’s depressed numbers he is better than pick number 141. I hem and haw over Matt Thornton, I believe he has the best stuff of the remaining closers, but Ozzie is playing mind games by not naming him “the guy” and I get cold feet. I have to imagine that he will steal over 15 bases and have an OPS of over 800. Not as disappointed that I didn’t land Markakis. Of course, Toral takes Thornton immediately!
It’s desperation time, I need a second closer. I’m convinced that Chapman will be Feliz to Cordero’s Francisco very early in 2011, so I don’t mind seeing him go. I originally thought it was a coin flip between Leo Nunez and 10.4.148 Brandon Lyon, but looking at Brandon’s numbers in the second half last year after taking over the closer role, he was excellent. I don’t really have a choice, though, as I think he is the very last of the sure closers left on the board.
I had Brian Roberts in my notes early this year as a cheap MI target. I go to the Baltimore Sun website to read about his back issues and, man!, the user comments are brutal. Note to Angelos: don’t send Brian to any Fan Fest events, he might get stabbed. The fans are out for blood. They point out that Spring Training 2011 is a complete repeat of 2010, everyone says, “it’s minor, he’ll be ready, sometime…” There are a lot of Sport Physiologist PhD’s chiming in, explaining how the degenerative disks in his back are due to steroids he took a handful of years ago. Perhaps I should investigate their CV’s, but I don’t have time and decide to stay away from Mr. Roberts.
I need some starting pitching and have created a long q topped by 11.13.173 Hiroki Kuroda with Josh Beckett number two. I mentioned this last year, I firmly believe that roto experts on down to us undervalue Japanese players with the lone exception of Ichiro who is somehow managed to fool the “experts” into placing him in the top 50 players overall (we sure didn’t buy that). Kuroda has a great WHIP, which is my most important category when ranking starters. He has been a reliable pitcher, had his best year last year, pitches in a cavern - or an arroyo – but the Dodgers offense sucks and it costs him wins. More of the same, Kuroda-san!
ONE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY! Yes, I do enjoy watching darts on TV from England. It’s also what I think 12.04.180 Josh Beckett will do this year! Drumroll!
I have been targeting players whom I believe will have bounce-back years as they are often undervalued. Josh Beckett certainly meets this criteria, hell, he has proven bounce-backability as a skill, having done it twice. The first time he had a ERA over five in a BoSox uni, he came back in 2007 with a top 10 finish. Then 2008 he was human, 2009, superhuman! 2010 – cretinous, 2011 – Cy Youngian? I like that pattern. He’s only 30
I also was looking at Matt Garza, John Danks, Brett Anderson, Ryan Dempster, Ricky Romero, Tim Hudson, all of whom I think will do well this year. Adam Lind was a steal this late, he is in my “bounce-back” camp.
I’m really getting frustrated that other teams have not filled their shortstop slot yet. Hey, punting shortstop is MY idea, y’all are supposed to panic and draft some all-glove no-hit bum during these rounds.
Here’s where I think I made my first big mistake. I have been eyeing Billy Beane’s latest Moneyball-era high OBP gem 13.13.205 Daric Barton. He led the AL in walks last year, but hit for no power. He’s only 26 and may yet develop his power this season, much like the Greek God of Walks started mashing the ball as he aged. Obviously Barton is worth more in our league than in a AVE league. Still, if he is even drafted, it’s way down in the 200’s. I pull the trigger, probably too early. I have my eye on Nishioki on my Twins. I love his 2nd/SS dual eligibility. I figure I’ll get him around the turn but that horrible man from Toronto snags him. Damn you, Toral, you have jinxed my team’s newest arrival. I had 14.4.212 Ian Kennedy next on my queue. Now, if he goes on to win 17 games for the DBacks, I’ll get a good chuckle out of this paragraph, but right now I want to strangle someone.
It wasn’t the last time Toral jabbed me in the heart.
Without Nishi, I decided I needed to land my MI right now. Next on the list was Ryan Rayburn, I’m not surprised he didn’t make it to me, he was a bargain. I had 15.13.237 Sean Rodriguez on my RIBC squad as a waiver wire acquisition last season and he was great when he got everyday at bats. He is flying under the radar because he wasn’t a starter every day last season. He was an outstanding prospect for the Angeles, if he can just bump up his stats against right handers, he will be excellent. I figure my pre-season favorite Josh Willingham will be there at #244. Glad to get Rodriguez, stunned to see Josh go next. ARGH!
Time to pull the trigger on 16.4.244 Carlos Beltran, can’t wait any longer. I’m only able to wait this long because this league is filled with excellent managers who pay attention to Spring Training injuries. Spring Training news is noise, as noted by many roto experts wiser than me. “Except for injuries”, is on of their exceptions, however… Well, I think that the gamble on Carlos is a huge bargain at #244. Much like I landed Ted Lilly last year in the 18th round because he was going to miss April with a post-surgery throwing shoulder, people overreacted by shunning him. Beltran will probably play in 130-140 games and hit .370/.495 10 steals and a fair share of runs/rbi. When I see Eric Bedard come off the board a few picks later, I feel justified, it’s gamblin’ time!
My Washington Huskies take care of business tonight against a very good Georgia team. Next up, the Tar Heels.
One player left on my pre-season must-have list, the man from Lodi, Jason Bartlett. I have him as my 8th SS in this format, but that’s with him slugging around .420. Speaking of four twenty…
Uh, where was I? Yes, Jason Bartlett will be a good shortstop for the Padres and I suspect he will be a decent fantasy one, as well, simply because SS is very thin. He is being picked somewhere around the 25th SS in Yahoo and ESPN, so I was debating between taking him at 17.13 or 18.04 figuring Toral, bean, and astade all have 3 MI’s already. My wife asked “what’s wrong” when I let out an audible groan when I saw that JeffG took him just two picks before me. It didn’t help that I had to wait all day to get the bad news.
I now feel exposed at SS and feel I have no choice but to take a chance on Pablo’s boy, 17.13.269 Alcides Escobar, the gem of the Greike trade. No one expects him to have a decent OBP or SLG, but he should steal bases and I need them. I take a little solace that I had Escobar as the 11th rated SS and the public seems to think he’ll do something.
The guy I was going to take with 17.13 and hoped that Bartlett would be there at 18.04.276 was David DeJesus. Thankfully he is there and I scoop him up. He was having a career year until he broke his thumb. He moved to Oakland, will bat second, should steal 10-12 bags and score runs with a great OBP and average SLG.
Oh, my aching heart, why, oh, why can’t you pass in the ball, Justin Holliday? It ruins my day thinking that such a great kid, four year contributor to the Huskies ends his career with a game killing turnover. Roy Williams, you were either unable or uninterested in coaching your taller, more talented team in a manner that better suited your squad, you were lucky you barely outscored us.
Wait all day to see which middle reliever I will land. 19.13.301 Juan Gutierrez does not have good stats or peripherals, not at all, but what he has is a decent chance of starting the season getting saves because JJ Putz is hurt. I am in the belief that middle relievers are next to impossible to predict their season performance, they are just too random, so I don’t plan on keeping them long. If someone has a chance of filling in for an injured closer, they move up to the top. That said, man, Raphael Betancourt had an amazing season last year for the Rockies and maybe I do feel a touch of remorse.
I drafted 20.4.308 Scott Baker last year and learned pretty quick that he was a safe bet at home and disaster on the road. He was 8-3 in 15 starts last year at the Target, with a 3.86 era. I will only start him at home this year unless he really improves his road performance.
I write you this from the Forks, WA public library. I know most you reading this have either come here to go on the Twilight Tours bus or wish someone would take them. The west end of the Olympic Peninsula is amazing, tons of rain leads to mossy forests and gorgeous ocean beaches. Not Forks, though, it looks like a place a bunch of loggers would call home, and for good reason. The town should have been wiped off the map back in 1909 when Pres. Teddy created the Mount Olympus National Monument, he should have extended it all the way to the ocean. By now, this area would have reverted to its natural state and be stunningly beautiful. Instead, all you see are tree farms awaiting clear cutting. I do enjoying coming out here once a week, sixty miles of driving in one hour, usually some bald eagles and wonderful views along Lake Crescent.
I think it’s time to grab a catcher. Kurt Suzuki is still available, but that guy is the catching equivalent of an inning-eater, he plays and plays and just kills your OBP/SLG. Not worth the pittance he contributes to the counting categories. No, I want 21.13.333 John Buck mostly for his effeminate name, but also for his slugging, I can take the hit to OBP. It between him and Jaso with his higher OBP, I want the slugger. He’ll probably hit higher in the order than Jaso, as well.
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| 8 | Tosh
Leader
ID: 057721710
Fri, Mar 25, 2011, 00:58
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11.12 Miguel Montero (C, ARI) -
This is the third season that I’ve been expecting this guy to breakout. He started to last year, when he injured his knee. I certainly considered Weiters as well, but he was disappointing last year, and I decided to pass.
12.05 Ricky Romero (SP, TOR) -
The hitting is filling out OK, so I’ll take a third SP with this pick. Any SP in the AL East is a bit risky and I’m concerned about his BB rate ... but Romero has impressive K/9 numbers and doesn’t give up too many homers. I really considered Gio Gonzalez, and after the Spring he's been putting up, maybe I should have.
13.12 Denard Span (OF, MIN) -
His power really fell off last season, so I’m certainly hoping for a bounce-back this season. But he was drafted for his SBs.
14.05 Mike Aviles (2B/SS, KC) -
He’ll serve as my MI slot, so it’s nice to have eligibility in both positions. But he’s gonna’ be the KC 3B, so then he’ll have even more flex in this deep league. He doesn’t really excel in anything, but will contribute in Rs and SBs. Especially if he ends up as the KC leadoff hitter.
15.12 Mitch Moreland (1B, TEX) -
Rookies are always a risk, but he’s having a big enough Spring that it appears he will have a full-time gig, in a solid TEX team of hitters. I’ll have to wait and see how Texas uses him before I’ll know if I have to platoon him.
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| 9 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Wed, Mar 30, 2011, 22:47
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11.03 Craig Kimbrel, RP, Atl
Every other healthy closer with a somewhat steady job was already taken and since I never intend on punting categories, I felt the need to grab Kimbrel here. He and Venters are supposed to share the role but I see Kimbrel getting more opportunities since Venters is a lefty which I think managers prefer using against tough lefty hitters rather than for an entire designated inning.
12.14 Carlos Lee, OF/1B, Hou
With Morales out I needed another 1B eligible player. He's coming off a terrible year but the Astros still bat him in the middle of the lineup so he should be decent in the counting stats at the very least.
13.03 Andres Torres, OF, SF
Underrated player. Can steal 20+ bases with an OPS over .800 while hitting at the top of the lineup.
14.14 Trevor Cahill, SP, Oak
Guess it's no secret Cahill got a little lucky last year. Even if/when he regresses from his 2.97 ERA 1.11 WHIP and 18 wins this pick should still be of good value.
15.03 Freddy Sanchez, 2B, SF
Needed to fill the MI position and I only saw 3 players who I would not hate being on my team (Sanchez, Uribe, and Bill Hall). I could have waited on Sanchez here but I didn't want to risk it after mostly missing out on the end of the closer run.
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| 10 | Dave R
SuperDude
ID: 3010361110
Thu, Mar 31, 2011, 22:13
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Round 11 and time for my 2nd Hudson. Not a sexy pick, but 11.07 Tim Hudson SP Atl, should be a solid 3rd starter for my staff. Tim can notch 15 wins or so, with great ratios. Unfortunately he won't strike out many either which probably kept him from being ranked higher.
I wasn't sure where to head next and ended with a 12.10 Matt Weiters C Bal. I have never drafted a catcher as high as this, so we will see how it shakes out. He's young, the potential is there and he should start most of the games for the Birds. 13.07 Gaby Sanchez 1B Flo. Did I really draft someone named Gaby? I guess I did, but we do need a CI and he was the highest left in my rankings.
I have no SS, but quite frankly, after the first few were gone, I didn't feel pressed to take one, but here I grabbed 14.10 JJ Hardy SS Bal. Geez, another Oriole. Maybe a move to Camden Yards will help JJ.. 15.07 James Shields SP TB. So here I get a 4th starter. Shields pitched in some tough luck last year and many a predicting a bounce back year for him. I'm hoping.
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| 11 | Seattle Zen
ID: 10732616
Thu, Apr 07, 2011, 17:06
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Damn you, Toral, you have jinxed my team’s newest arrival.
Nishioka has a fractured fibula.
Well, that took all of about five games...
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