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Subject: RIBC AAA 2012 PCL #1-5 RATIONALES
Posted by: judy
- Dude [7771722] Sun, Mar 11, 2012, 20:47
Place your rationales in this thread. We will do them in groups of 5, and I will open a new thread two rounds after each set.
Be sure not to mention any undrafted folks.
In your first entry, say why you chose your draft slot.
Note that at the end of the draft, there will be a separate draft recap where you get to tell us what you tried to do and how you feel about your team and your competitor's teams. |
| 1 | judy
Dude
ID: 7771722
Sun, Mar 11, 2012, 20:49
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Draft slot:
I was not able to choose my draft position this year except between 13 and 14. I chose 13 to give a bit less time between the long picks. A wait of 21 rather than 23. SIGH.
1.13 Carlos Gonzalez OF COL
I have had CarGo on several of my teams in the past. When he can stay healthy by not crashing into walls, he is a fine 5 tool player. I was actually surprised he survived until #13. I am looking for over 100 runs and rbi’s, a coupla dozen steals and some nice power output. My other option this late in the first round was either A Gonzalez, taken by YR at 1.11, or Longoria, taken by Toral with the next pick, but I like CarGo better…
2.04 Cliff Lee SP PHL
Again, I have had Lee on several of my teams in the past. If it is not broken, then don’t change it! I really wanted Halladay but Toral snatched him right before my pick. I hope Toral and I don’t continue with this snatching stuff all draft! Lee is a 4 tool (no saves…) SP with a great upside. He has stated that he wants to be even better than last year. I’ll take that, PLUS I get to watch him every 5 days or so!
3.13 Elvis Andrus SS TEX
How can you argue with a guy named Elvis? I consider him a fine 4 tool player, with his only weakness being his SLG, but the other categories makeup for it. His SLG is not in the top 10 for SS, but that’s OK -- SS are not supposed to be SLG’rs. He is a top 5 SS on a good team. I am looking for over 100 runs and 3-4 dozen steals, and a nice OBP. I considered Castro for his SLG potential, but the Cubbies stink and so I went with Andrus. Toral took Castro with the next pick.
4.04 Eric Hosmer 1B KC
I usually tend towards the young un’s when I draft and sometimes it works and sometimes it does not, but I am confident that this is a GREAT pick! Hosmer is a second year player who had a great rookie season (3rd in AL ROY voting.). Last year my 1B got injured early so I did not get much out of the position. He should get >90 runs and rbi’s and toss in a dozen steals and he earns his keep for me. His SLG will help counter balance Elvis…
5.13 Shin-Soo Choo OF CLE
Choo is a 5 tool OF, and here I am looking for not just good, but rather great stats in all the categories. Last year was injury filled, but his short major league history predicts a solid rebound as he enters his prime years. He is ranked just outside the Top Ten for OF -- not too shabby! I am looking for just under 100 runs and rbis, about 2 dozen steals and and nice contribution to my team’s OBP and SLG.
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| 2 | mmikulka
ID: 532511111
Mon, Mar 12, 2012, 07:50
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Draft slot:
Ideally I would have liked pick #2 so that I could have taken Tulowitzki. With 7-9 as my best options, I broke my top tier of players into another set of tiers, and came up with cutoff points at 2, 6, and 8, so I took the 8th slot.
1.08 Robinson Cano 2B NYY
For early round picks, I like to target players who are consistent and relatively young. Cano has always been near or at the top of a moderately shallow position, and (barring an injury) a mediocre year will still likely find him in the top 25 overall.
2.09 Tim Lincecum SP SF
It goes against the very core of my being to draft a pitcher this early, but there was nobody on offense I felt strongly enough about to draft, and as pitchers go, Lincecum is about as good and as consistent as it gets.
3.08 Hunter Pence OF PHI
I also wouldn’t normally want to draft OF early because they are so plentiful, but I really like Pence: He has had 4 consecutive solid seasons, averaging over 80 R, 85 RBI, 10 SB, and .470 SLG. Being in a homer-friendly park with a better offense should only help, even if he doesn’t approach the obscene numbers he put up the final 50 games of last season.
4.09 Brian McCann C ATL
One thing I tend to focus on is position scarcity: in a 16 team league, getting stuck with the bottom of a shallow position can really hurt your team. It’s tough for me to envision a fantasy team that rotates Clint Barmes and Ryan Theriot at MI ever winning a championship. Catcher has more players with high potential than normal this year, but with a small bench, I didn’t want to wait for Jesus Montero to gain eligibility, and I view Mauer, Wieters, Avila, and Posey (already taken anyway) as risky. This led me to take McCann: he might not be a particularly flashy pick, but all 6 of his full years have been solid top 5 catcher material.
5.08 Rickie Weeks 2B MIL
Like my first 4 picks, Weeks is in his late 20’s: unlike them, he is a major injury risk, but by this point he was by far my favorite MI remaining. He racks up oodles of runs (maybe a few less now without Fielder), he should still be good for double digit steals, his high walk rate makes his OBP respectable even in a down year, and over the last three seasons his SLG was bested only by Cano and Uggla (and was only .001 less than Uggla’s).
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| 3 | GoatLocker
Leader
ID: 060151121
Mon, Mar 12, 2012, 09:45
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Draft Slot:
Once I knew I could have one of the first three slots, I did go ahead and take slot three knowing I could have at least one of the top three players in this format. Did have some qualms about the long wait for the second pick, but knew I could pair my even and odd round picks from the second pick on.
1.03 Jose Bautista, 3B, TOR
This pick fit in with why I took slot 3. Knew I was going to get Cabrera, Pujols, or Bautista. I’m very happy with this choice. I see him continuing on as he did the last two seasons. I’m expecting to see an OBP of .400 plus, and SLG at right around .600 again. Think Toronto did a good job of putting better players around him, and don’t expect any drop-off.
2.14 Jered Weaver, SP, ANA
I really like him as the Ace of my pitching. I think the addition of Pujols and Wilson only benefit him. I expect the Angels and Rangers to be fighting all season and that will only benefit him. Looking at the 16/18 Win range, ERA of under .300, and WHIP right around 1.00. Part of the key will be if he can keep his walk rate down around where it was last season and keep the ball in the park.
3.03 Desmond Jennings, OF, TB
This was my toughest pick so far, and only time will tell. I was so close to pulling the trigger on Strasburg, but decided to wait on the second pitcher. Wasn’t sure he would get back to me (and he didn’t), but had a back-up plan. Went ahead with Jennings in this slot, and also what is my first risky pick. Hopefully we’ll continue to see improvement from the partial season of last year. Will get the SBs, and hopefully still show the power numbers he did.
4.14 Yu Darvish, SP, TEX
Well, back-up plan. Might have been a little early, and probably could have waited until after the turn, but decided to take him here to make sure I got him. As those in G20 with me will tell you, I really like him. I’ve held on to him for several seasons as a prospect. Yes, I’m a little worried about him pitching half of his games in Texas, but still think he will be the top tier pitcher that I expect him to be. Hopefully he is the #2 that I expect.
5.03 Lance Berkman, 1B, STL
I was 100% right in taking him early last year, and just hope he comes back close to what he did then. Like the flexibility of being able to use him in 4 different positions in this format. Think he will be a big part of STL with Pujols gone. And just didn’t see anybody else with the position versatility for this format that I really liked here. Other thoughts will need to wait until later.
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| 4 | Great One
ID: 340592712
Mon, Mar 12, 2012, 09:51
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Draft Slot 1.15
Wasn't a lot left to choose from so I went to the end of the round where I thought I could predict the picks between my almost back to backs pretty well. This paid off a couple times already.
1.15 Dustin Pedroia and 2.02 Jose Reyes
Was gonna trade down here but after staring at it a bit more I realized I could lock up my middle infield with 1.15 and 2.02. So I wanted a SS with my first pick but couldn't choose between Hanley/Reyes... so I took the other side of it and took care of 2B with an OBP stud in Pedroia. I did this because I figured JL wouldn't take TWO SS's, so I would just take the one he didn't choose and I'd have my MI squared away. And thats exactly what happened.
3.15 Alex Rodriguez and 4.02 Buster Posey
Very similar situation as I wanted to work on my IF a bit more. Zimmerman almost slipped to me which I would have preferred, but A-Rod is a good consolation prize and I probably needed a bit more pop anyway after not getting a big slugger type with my 1st 2 choices.
Similar to the first time around I wanted a slugging catcher but couldn't decide between McCann or Posey... so I let it fall to the second of the choices (although he didn't pick one anyway) but it left me comfortable I would get one or the other with my 4th choice.
5.15 Mariano Rivera
I never take a closer this early, but he was really sticking out to me. If by chance he and A-Rod break down this year, I'm still cool with that cause I hate the Yankees. There were 4-5 other top SP types I'd be comfortable leading my staff and thats what I would pick up in the 6th.
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| 5 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Mon, Mar 12, 2012, 10:19
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1.01 Miguel Cabrera
The best player in baseball right now, and that's before he gets third base eligibility.
2.16 Josh Hamilton
You've got to take risks to win. When healthy, Hamilton is awesome. I can deal with injury better than most teams, so I am happy to take on the risk in hope of getting the reward.
3.01 Giancarlo Stanton
See comment for Miguel Cabrera in 2014. It starts this year.
4.16 Craig Kimbrel and 5.01 Jonathan Papelbon
In RIBC leagues, the closer run usually starts in the fourth round. I assumed most good closers would be gone by 6.16. They really weren't, but I wanted to make sure I was steady in that department. If I'd known what was going to be available in the 6th, I might have taken a SP or another hitter.
6.16 Daniel Hudson
Starting pitchers were really going off the board at this time. Hudson is going to break out this year, and is already better than most of the ones who were gone. I'm ok with him as my ace.
7.01 Carl Crawford
Sure, it's a risk. But I got Carl Crawford in the 7th round. Did you ever think you'd hear that?
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| 6 | Seattle Zen
ID: 10732616
Mon, Mar 12, 2012, 12:29
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Draft Rationale RIBC AAA 2012
After much lobbying I was very lucky to even get back into AAA this year. Last season was an abomination, finishing 11th. How does a team that lands Curtis Granderson, Josh Beckett, Ian Kennedy and Carlos Beltran late in the draft finish 11th? By having terrible picks in the beginning. So this year I’m preparing the beginning of the draft a little differently: game theory. I took what draft slot I would want the most and then imagined who would likely be available in the next eight rounds. Rather than “wait n see” who is available, I tried to imagine all the ramifications each pick had on my team and on the next few rounds. Last year I waited too long to get my first starter and closer. I am well aware that middle infielders are gold in RIBC and yet last year I still ended up with piss poor players and had to make trades to address those positions during the season.
I decided I liked slot 5 the most because I really like five of the top six most popular picks in this order: Cabrera, Pujols, Braun, Bautista, Tulo. Hopefully I will get to choose between two of the last three and I will take Tulo because I won’t be able to land the only two other SS worth anything. Sure enough, I took 1.05Tulo and I am happy.
I practiced my game theory in a few mock drafts knowing full well that 15 team mocks using traditional 5X5 formats are not ideal, but the best I can get. Same qualifications apply to cheatsheets and ADP’s. Further frustration is how good this league is. You can’t sneak much by y’all. My preparation targets for pick #28 included Mark Texieria, Mike Stanton, Tim Lincecum, Adrian Beltre, Felix Hernandez. But upon further review, I didn’t like Beltre’s piss poor OBP, so I scratched him. I didn’t start to consider 2.12.28Carlos Santana until seeing Bill James ridiculously high on him, as well as a few other pros mentioning just how amazing his eye is. His OBP was over 100 points higher than his average. And he very well could knock in 100 RBI’s because he should be an every day bat, playing DH on his days without the tools of ignorance. Once mailedfoot took McCutchen, I had four guys on my Q with whom I would be satisfied and four spots to go. When deciding to put Santana at the top, I decided not to make the same mistake I made last year when I choose not to take Mike Stanton – irrational fear of the Sophomore Slump. So, Mike, I’m not taking you this year because I should have taken you last year :) I would say that Carlos had the highest chance of being around at 37, but I didn’t want to play that game in the second round. Pick your guy! Plus, I love Abraxas!
Now that I have the top two players at the weakest positions in the game, maybe it is the time to think about a top notch starter. But what about Josh Hamilton? I am really high on Hamilton because he is not high, he’s working his program with renewed vigor after his relapse. It’s a contract year and all eyes are on him. He is one of maybe six players with the potential to post a 1000 OPS. But he is not known for playing the whole season. Injuries KILL you in RIBC. He slipped mightily in the Yahoo league. Damn Blue Hen takes him and Stanton, DAMNIT! Wow, those eight picks just killed me. Seriously, why can’t some of you East Coast guys grab David Wright? I hate David Wright.
I decided I really needed an arm because I’m not up again until #60. I am not taking a flier on Brett Lawry. The only bat that really appeals to me is Paul Konerko, but I have other thoughts for first base. Man, I was hoping to land Cole Hamels.
It came down to a choice between 3.05.37CC Sabathia and David Price. I’ve never owned CC, not crazy about his WHIP, but he has been a solid contributor in wins and strikeouts. The guy is a rock, a squishy rock that wins games for the Yankees. Price and Dan Haren are equally good pitchers, just not as reliable.
I’m starting to suspect that had I drafted Felix or Stanton at #28, Carlos would have been there at #37. Damn you game theory, my competitors in this league are just too damn smart!
Round 4 pick 60: Pre-season planning had me pinning my hopes on Michael Bourn. I have a tendency to underdraft steals and he is a great way to combat this tendency. I also liked Kornerko, Zobrist and Utley. So I bet all y’all got a good laugh when I took Cuddyer. Yes, I had him as the sixth second baseman, actually head and shoulders above Phillips and torso, head and shoulders over the dwarf Uggla. You would think with all the preparation put into this endeavor that I would remember the difference between ESPN and Yahoo, oh, well. I do have him as tied for seventh at first base, that’s how high I am on Cuddyer this year, tied with Berkman. I’ve seen him ranked as high as 51 overall at 1st/OF. If Lance and Mike have the same amount of at bats, the Big Puma will have a slightly better year. If Fat Elvis pulls up lame here and there, I like Mikey as a big part of a high octane Rockies offense. He can’t be as bad as my Jason Werth third round pick last year.
That’s the difference between a draft and auction. Had I thought Cuddy was a two bagger and got him for $14, I would have jumped up and down for joy. When told he’s my first baseman, well, I would have been just slightly deflated. Realizing my mistake Saturday morning, I now know what it feels like to nominate Cuddy for $20 and hearing crickets. D’oh! Shake it off! Could I have landed him round 6 pick 92? The way this draft is turning out, no way. I would have to have taken him at 69 and that’s not much of a savings. I may have taken Berkman at 60 and have been elated to land Price at 69. How David Price lasted until 71 is beyond me.
Round 5 pick 69: Thinking Cuddyer was my second baseman, I had the Big Puma atop my queue. Third basemen are thin this year and the cupboard is nearly bare. Aramis Ramirez is available and after him there is a huge drop off. We have all done this for so many years, there have been dozens of times in drafts where we look at who is left and we freak out at the dearth of decent starters at position X, so we grab the “last decent guy” even though we aren’t particularly high on him. Some times it makes us look like a genius. Thanks to a SLOW draft, I had time to really research Aramis. I had forgotten that he was hurt a lot in 2009 & 2010. I also realized that he really REALLY liked playing in Wrigley, his away slashes were rather pedestrian. I’m not sold. Not when Bossman Junior is available! Back when I was in the Political Gurupies Keeper league, I drafted BJ back when he was still in high school in the prospect draft. I think there are maybe two guys ready to make a Granderson-like leap this year and BJ tops my list. I am seeing it now, BJ & Justin bust out of the gates like gangbusters leading to lots of Upton/Upside headlines in the USA Today. So my bedtime Q was: Berkman, BJ, Price, Alex Gordon, Aramis. Was amazed by Blue Hen’s double barreled closer picks, over David Price? What was that term he was using five years ago, dumositiy or somesuch? I now see Blue Hen agrees in this thread.
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| 7 | Seattle Zen
ID: 10732616
Mon, Mar 12, 2012, 13:26
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Great One: I was wondering, how would one calculate a fair trade of draft picks in a snake draft? Is there a website that assigns a numerical value to each pick, some "trade calculator"? I'm curious for the future.
I think your first two picks were wise and I'm really curious to see which MI pair performs better this year, yours or JL's.
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| 8 | Toral
ID: 010321615
Mon, Mar 12, 2012, 13:33
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0.08 -- 14th Slot
The slot I would have wanted was #5, which was very quickly taken by Seattle Zen. I would have settled for #4, but it was taken just before me, and the top 6 slots had all then been grabbed up. After the top group, looking at subsidiary tiers, the whole group seemed to be a vast undifferentiated mass. The only thing I would have done would be to take the last slot possible in which to get Longoria, who I wanted from among the rest of the bunch because of position scarcity. But i couldn’t predict where he would go -- my guess was 10th, but it could be anywhere between 7th and 12th. So I decided to head for the end of the line and get the best possible choice in the second round before the true quality dried up. I didn’t want the turn because 1) it’s too vulnerable to runs; and 2) picking 2 or 3 sports before the end, it can be some help knowing what the guys picking after you’s positional needs are.
1.14 Evan Longoria, 3B, TB (Other AAA 1.12)
A pleasant surprise. Setting my queue with 3 picks before mine, I figured that Longoria would go and I would take whoever was available out of Ellsbury, CarGo and AGon. Those were the three who were taken, and I was able to pluck Longoria out of the pie.
Longoria’s power and plate discipline actually improved last year. The low batting average can be explained by a combination of his early injury and his flukey low BABIP. There’s a two-man top tier at the position and he’s in it.
Now I can set a four-man queue of Ramirez, Kinsler, Pedroia and Reyes and be sure of getting a premium MI early.
2.03 Roy Halladay, SP, Phi (Other AAA 2.10)
Or not. It seems that Great One and JL were thinking along the same lines. 4 picks between mine, 4 names in my queue, 4 names stripped from my queue. The much-coveted quadruple-snatch.
Time for an agonizing reappraisal here. I generally select pitchers late, with perhaps one ace early. The ace (e.g. Tim Lincecum) never seems to work out. But there’s no hitters who interest me. The choice between pitchers comes between Halladay and Kershaw (2.07). Kershaw more upside, Halladay more reliable. I own Kershaw in another league and like to spread my risk; and Halladay has been my favourite pitcher since he was a Blue Jay. A very rational ground for choosing.
3.14 Starlin Castro, SS, ChC (Other AAA 2.07)
With position adjustments Castro is close enough to the top of my list here so as to get my first MI out of the way. In a 3 MI league the cupboard can get awfully bare if you don’t start picking them early.
Castro’s only 22. His list of most-comparable players by age at Baseball Reference contains 4 Hall-of-Famers not to mention Vern Stephens and Jim Fregosi. He improved his slugging percentage by 40 points last year, and more can be expected. He stole 20 bases, and while his success rate wasn’t great, it was good enough to suggest that he’ll be roaming the basepaths for at least another year or two. The other SS near him in the lists, Elvis Andrus, was just gone, but in any case his slugging percentage is just too low.
I would have seriously considered Ryan Zimmerman here, even though I already have a 3Bman, but he was taken at 3.12.
4.03 Chase Utley, 2B, Phi (Other AAA 4.03)
I’m not completely convinced this was the right pick here, given Utley’s age. And knee problem. And off season. But again I was not knocked over by any of the corner hitters around at this point, and don’t want another pitcher, so I’ll lock down the second MI slot. He did still steal bases when he came back, and his BABIP was well below his career average, suggesting that luck was against him last year.
5.14 Ike Davis, 1B, NYM (Other AAA 6.07)
When healthy, Davis hits for average and power and walks as well and will be playing in a park where the fences have been moved in in his power area. There’s only one Tier 2 first sacker left after this, so I’ll take him. I figure the Valley Fever story was concocted by the Mets’ PR staff to earn some space in the New York papers.
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| 9 | Great One
ID: 340592712
Mon, Mar 12, 2012, 13:41
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SZ - I have no idea how to value draft pick trades, I just go on my gut of what can help. I would have been ok trading my 1st in something like this... my 1st + 13th for 2nd + 4th or something in that ballpark.
Thats hilarious about Toral and the 2B/SS guys. Crazy how that worked out.
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| 10 | jdrenbarger
ID: 562471212
Mon, Mar 12, 2012, 13:53
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Draft slot – I chose #6, with #4 still available, as I was perfectly happy with any of the top six on my personal “board.” Thought briefly about taking #7; didn’t consider dropping below #7 at all.
1.06 Ryan Braun, OF, MIL
I’m a numbers guy and operations analyst by trade, and as such have spent years tinkering with different roto league drafting “systems” … with my results generally never being nearly as good as the results I’ve had in various stock market games. I like to do my own weighting of composite projection sets from various sources, tend to gravitate to what I believe to be the best available player rather than pay the attention that I probably should to—although I do consider it—positional scarcity, and inevitably draft OFs too early and find myself sorting through the scrap heap of pretty poor MIs toward the end of the draft.
Given all of that, Braun was an easy choice for me to make here as I’d have taken him as high as 2nd – a solid five-category contributor, with only Joey Votto still being on the board causing me to pause a little. There’s obviously a little risk here, and I’ll regret this if it turns out that some of his past performances have truly been “enhanced” and that he misses hitting in front of Prince Fielder more than I think he will.
2.11 Mark Teixeira, 1B, NYY
Pretty much a toss-up for me here between Teixeira and Matt Holliday – went with Teixeira in the end because I believed the drop-off at 1B was about to get pretty steep and, well, because I’ve been a Yankees’ fan since I was 6 years old.
3.06 Mike Napoli, C, TEX
After deciding I’d wait at least another round to take a pitcher (C.J. Wilson and Matt Cain were the top two on my list), this pick came down to Napoli, David Wright, and Ben Zobrist. Went with Napoli in part because he was the highest rated batter on my board—probably an indictment of the system that I use :-) —, in part because he also qualifies at 1B, and in part because I’m tired of picking catchers in rounds 20/later and then working the waiver wire every week for a small upgrade (to still way below average). We’ll see if I subsequently make any picks that can be described as more curious than this one, as there’s obviously some risk in the amount of playing time he’ll get, but his vs. left/right splits were surprisingly similar last year and he’s always absolutely crushed lefties.
4.11 C.J. Wilson, SP, LAA
Top five batters on my board are Ortiz, Berkman, Cuddyer, Choo and Mark Reynolds, with Reynolds perhaps another indictment of the way I’m approaching this. I’ve endured every slump Ortiz has ever had, am all too familiar with Berkman’s good year/bad year pattern, can’t imagine really taking Cuddyer this early, am spooked a little by Choo’s injury, and can’t imagine anyone else in this league considering Reynolds for at least another couple of rounds … so it's time to grab a pitcher. C.J. Wilson and Matt Cain are still there, with Cain meeting all of my usual qualifications (NL, contender, arguably the best home park for pitchers in the majors). That said, I go with Wilson … I expect better K’s, Anaheim was the third-best park to pitch in last year, and a guy who can pitch well in Texas should be able to pitch well anywhere.
5.06 Shane Victorino, OF, Phi
Top five batters on my board are now Ortiz, Reynolds, Choo, Victorino and Billy Butler, and Cain is still available. I still think Reynolds is safe to sit on—ESPN barely has him in the top 100 batters—and I think it’s too early for another pitcher, so I look a little more closely at Victorino and Butler. I also traditionally underdraft steals, so I accept the hit in every other category except runs and go with “The Flyin’ Hawaiian” … and perhaps I was influenced a small bit by my Army assignment (and marriage) in Hawaii many years ago.
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| 11 | youngroman
ID: 56523304
Mon, Mar 12, 2012, 15:39
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0.06 Pick Selection #11
available were #4 and #7+. I did not like #4 because it means that I have a lower pick in round 2. there is also uncertainty if Ryan Braun may still get suspended. other options at #4 would have been Kemp and Tulowitzki but I am not sure if they will perform good enough to not be a bust at #4. I did not see much difference in picks 7 to 12 so I took #11. this gives me room in case of an injury / suspension of one of the top12 and still gives me a high 2nd round pick to use on a complementary hitter to my #1
1.11 Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, BOS
I hoped for Fielder or Upton to make it, but that did not happen. I usually like to pick a power guy in round 1 and complement him with a "speedster" in round 2. Adrian Gonzalez should fit that bill. I compared him to Carlos Gonzalez, but Adrian has a far more superior OPS. Carlos on the other side gets much more steals. since I want to address this in round 2, I took the pure power hitter in Adrian Gonzalez.
2.06 Curtis Granderson, OF, NYY
Pick 1 was for power, so pick 2 is for speed, which means a player getting 20+ steals with above average power. I considered Granderson and McCutchen here. Reyes was out of the picture because of his low R and RBI totals and a declining steal number, so I didn't bother that he was taken a few picks earlier. With 3 picks to go I hoped that one of my initial considerations would make it. I was surprised that all 3 picks went for starting pitchers. The difference between Granderson and McCutchen is that Granderson is more proven and has the better surrounding cast.
3.11 Dan Haren, SP, LAA
My initial plan was to pick a SP here. a few picks ago I compiled all SPs worth picking up either with this pick or my next. The list was: Greinke, Haren, Cain, Strasburg. Too bad Greinke was already gone. Haren was next on my list. I thought if he may still be available at 4.06 compared to the other 2 and pick one of them instead. Strasburg is the dark horse of these 3. In the end I believe that either Cain or Strasburg will be there to get in round 4.
To Haren: His 1st half/2nd half statistics look a pretty odd when you simply look at the ERA numbers, but beside that they are pretty normal. looking at various projections Haren's stats are relatively close compared to other pitchers: 13-17 wins, 168 - 219 K's, 2.92 - 3.6 ERA, 1.05 - 1.2 WHIP. projections for Cain are at 2.77 - 3.89 ERA and 1.09 - 1.3 WHIP and the Strasburg numbers are even more off because nobody knows how many IPs he will get this year. I went with the player that is most likely to get good stats, even if that means that the stats are only very good and not excellent. I won't win this league with my 3rd round pick, but I won't lose it either. at least I hope so.
4.06 Stephen Strasburg, SP, WAS
He may be the best starting pitcher in baseball, but he will be on an inning limit between 140 and 170 this year. I bet he gets slightly over 160 innings. but 160 innings of Strasburg are hopefully better than 210 innings of Matt Cain. The low ERA and WHIP with similar K's in less innings when compared to other available starting pitchers made the difference. I just saw that Cain went at 5.12 in the other AAA league, so I still have a shot of getting him and I would not wait a second doing so, even if he would be my 3rd starter in only the 5th round.
5.11 Matt Cain, SP, SF
I was right that Cain may survive and be available here. I did not plan to pick a 3rd starting pitcher in round 5, but Cain was too much value. I already wrote about him in my last 2 posts, so I don't have anything to add.
I now need to look which batters are still out there in the next few rounds. I still need plenty of them.
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| 12 | mailedfoot
ID: 47213616
Mon, Mar 12, 2012, 16:31
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Draft Position 9
Selected the position closest to the middle so that I would have the fewest positions between picks
1.09 Prince Fielder
Wanted a big bat if available and was happy to take Fielder. He should be good in an OBP league.
2.08 Andrew McCutchen
Was looking for another hitter to compliment Fielder. McCutchen fit the bill, he should contribute in 5 categories.
3.09 Zack Greinke; 4.08 Brett Lawrie
Originally was going to take Wright or Zimmerman here but had trouble deciding between the two. Lawrie was lurking in the back of my mind, and given Wright and Zimmerman's injury history, I decided to take Greinke and hope that Lawrie would still be available in Round 4. Most of the projections for Greinke indicate a top flight starter and I am optimistic about Lawrie's ability hit at the major league level albeit the small sample size so far.
5.09 Nelson Cruz
I think Cruz was the highest ranked hitter still available at this point, so I took him. Hopefully he stays healthy (ha!)
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| 13 | Evan
ID: 5720121
Mon, Mar 12, 2012, 17:54
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I started with the 7th pick overall.
1:07 - Joey Votto 1B CIN - Came down between Votto and Cano for me. I would have loved to get my second baseman but I thought first base was a little shallower this year. Plus, Votto is extremely consistent and provides my team a pretty much guaranteed high average, 30 home runs, 100 RBI, and high OBP. I want my first rounder to be as safe as possible.
2:10 - Adrian Beltre 3B TEX - Really hoped Andrew McCutchen would fall to me here. I don’t like getting starting pitching this early in the draft and wanted to get another valuable hitter. That one was Beltre. As long as he stays healthy, he is a very solid producer in Texas and fills the scarce 3B position for me. He is quietly an elite hitter.
3:07 - Jay Bruce OF CIN - Wanted to secure power early on. He is still only 25 years old and can break out in a big way. Almost went Michael Bourn here but the lack of power and RBI shied me away. I’ll look for speed later on in the draft. Bruce could vie for the HR title.
4:10 - Jon Lester P BOS - Decided to take my first pitcher here. It was between Lester/Price/Cain. I honestly would have been happy with any one of the three. Picked Lester because of his high strikeouts and win potential. He had a down year last year but should regain his Cy Young form.
5:07 - David Price P TAM - Shocked that he fell to me here. I really wanted to get more offense but I went with best player available. Considering that i was debating whether to choose Lester or Price during my last pick, I feel I got a steal here. Considering Yu Darvish and CJ Wilson went a few picks before this (which I don’t understand at all when guys like Price, Cain, and Gallardo were available), I went with the legitimate ace in Price.
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| 14 | Goldcoach
ID: 331042822
Mon, Mar 12, 2012, 21:26
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Goldcoach Draft Rationals Rnds 1-5
1.12 I was surprised to see Jacoby Ellsbury fall to me at # 12. I guess most were thinking his power last year was a fluke, but I still get Runs SBs and OBP and with the hope of some modest HR and RBI I couldn’t pass him up.
2.05 In all the drafts I’ve ever done I don’t think I’ve ever taken a pitcher as high as the second round, so why did I do it this year? Verlander looks to provide a lot of K’s low era and whip and with Detroit adding Fielder their Offense (already good) should produce more giving me an even better chance at Wins. A solid start (pardon the pun) for my pitching categories.
3.12 Coming off injury I was skittish about this pick, but consoled myself with the knowledge that the Nationals had just signed Ryan Zimmerman to a lengthy and expensive extension so I figured if they were comfortable with him as a centerpiece for their future investing real dollars, I could afford to spend a fantasy pick on him here. He’s rated higher on most boards than where I got him, so at this point in the draft I figure I’m running ahead.
4.05 This became a commitment pick for me. ESPN has Michael Bourn rated at #34 overall and the #10 OF easily the best player left on the board.. I already have Ellsbury; by going with Bourn here instead of a big bopper I am obligating myself to finish very high in Runs, SBs and OBP as I am not going to do very well in RBI’s and HRs (the power categories). I contemplate and speculate; I make the pick; I am committed; perhaps I should be committed. Only the end of the season will tell.
5.12 Having cast the die with my last pick in favor of doing well in Runs, SBs and OBP I further that goal with a speedy shortstop that had a poor year last year. I’m counting on Jimmy Rollins to bounce back and have a stellar year even though I’m a Braves fan. I am now well on the way to a fair chance at good standings in the “speed” categories; I better be, because at this stage I have only Ryan Zimmerman to provide the “power” stats. I will have to buy some power cheap later in the draft or find it on the waiver wire or via trades.
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| 15 | JL
ID: 2250134
Tue, Mar 13, 2012, 05:50
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1.16 Hanley Ramirez, SS, Miami
2.01 Ian Kinsler, 2B, Texas
Last season, I went with the unconventional strategy of drafting Halladay and King Felix at 1.16/2.01 and had fun trying to work my way out of it, so I decided to do something similarly auto-handcuffing this year by taking two middle infielders at 1.16/2.01. I wasn’t crazy about the other available players, so I might as well. If Adrian Gonzalez had been available, I may have changed course; but he wasn’t, so this seemed like a fun path of misery to stray onto. It should be plenty fun when Kinsler’s on the DL and Hanley’s batting .236 and sulking behind a red-hot Reyes. Yay, fantasy baseball.
3.16 Ben Zobrist, 2B, TB
4.01 Kevin Youkilis, 3B, Bos
The middle infield bonanza continues with taking Zobrist at 2B. Now I don’t have to worry about which scrub to draft at 2B/SS in the 18th round. It feels good.
I felt very fortunate to have Zobrist fall this far. Statistically he’s not much different from Kinsler, providing solid OBP/SLG and SBs across the board.
With the middle infield locked up, gathering SLG became my next goal. With Napoli off the board and OFs generally in abundance, I decided to go with what remained of the few corner infielders that didn’t suck. Youkilis was that CI that didn’t suck. When healthy, he tends to put up Kevin Youkilis-esque numbers. Konerko’s too old, Hosmer’s too young, and Brett Lawrie doesn’t have a long enough track record to warrant being taken this high.
5.16 Michael Morse, 1B, Was
If I didn’t grab a 1B at this point, I would be left in the late rounds sifting through the 1B bargain bin of crap that no one else wanted. Morse is young and has huge upside. That, and he's also the only viable 1B remaining, making this an easy choice. If you need an egg and the grocery store only has medium eggs, then you’ll get the damn medium eggs. Morse is that medium egg (with the potential to grow into an extra large egg?)
0/1 on analogies.
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| 16 | philliephanjr
ID: 172371318
Tue, Mar 13, 2012, 19:37
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Pick 10
My tier cutoffs were at 6 and 11. With 1-6 and 11 gone I took the 10 slot.
1.10 Justin Upton OF
I thought Ellsbury or Upton would go at 9 and I'd have my choice made for me. With both available, I chose Upton because he is more likely to produce in all 5 categories and (in my opinion) has more upside.
2.7 Clayton Kershaw SP
I usually wait on SP when I can, but Kershaw was my top ranked pitcher and I couldn't resist him with the 23rd pick. I feel like he has all the upside and I don't think there is too much risk (knock on wood).
3.10 David Wright 3B
Don't like him. Hate the injury risk. Still felt like he was good value with the potential to be a steal if he can stay healthy.
4.7 Paul Konerko 1B
Best hitter available here. Solid producer with power. Would have considered Lawrie if I didn't have a 3B already (irony incoming)
5.10 Michael Young 3B
This was a mistake thinking he had second base eligibility and I was getting a steal. I haven't really developed a plan for this but he can hit so hopefully it will work out.
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| 17 | TD
ID: 539351921
Mon, Mar 19, 2012, 15:04
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Pick 4 - Went for the earliest slot available. I wanted a hitter who was strong in all five categories.
1.04 Matt Kemp, OF, LAD
I went for the best player available. Kemp had a career year last season, was one of the top ranked players, and is strong in all categories. I expect a slight dropoff this season, but still think he will be one of the top 5 players. I didn't consider anyone else.
2.13 Felix Hernandez, SP SEA
Decided to take a Pitcher with this pick. If Teixiera was still available, I would have taken him, but I didn't like any other hitters enough to take them here. On a better offensive team, Hernandez might be the top pitcher taken. Less wins than the top pitchers is the only negative. He is 26 and entering his prime.
3.04 Pablo Sandoval, 3B SF
Previous years, I tried get more starting pitching early. This year I am trying to fill some positions before getting multiple starting pitchers. Sandoval hits for power. My only concern is he may be injury prone because of his weight, but at age 25 the risk isn't that great.
4.13 Alex Gordon, OF KC
Gordon had his best season yet last year. His stats were better than average in all categories. I expect slightly better stats this year.
5.04 Dan Uggla, 2B Atl
I was looking to get a middle infielder with this pick if I could find one I liked. Uggla came on strong in the 2nd half of last season after an ugly first half. He has had at least 30 HRs in each of the last 5 seasons. I expect slightly better full season stats this year.
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