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Subject: RIBC AAA 2012 PCL #11-15 RATIONALES
Posted by: judy
- Dude [7771722] Thu, Mar 15, 2012, 17:48
Good job maintaining the format.
Thanks. |
| 1 | youngroman
ID: 56523304
Thu, Mar 15, 2012, 18:23
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11.11 Frank Francisco, RP, NYM
initially I planned to pick a hitter here and my 2nd closer in the next round. this plan faltered as soon as a closer run occurred, which emptied the pool of players who already were named closer for their team. there are only a few left and with 2 picks to go my list was down to Carlos Marmol, who hasn't a secure job because he struggles since last season, but the Ks would be there. Fortunately or unfortunately my queue got dry as my pick approached. I had no idea whom to pick. I only wanted a 2nd closer who has a pretty safe job in the 1st half of the season. looking at the available options I wasn't comfortable in picking Javy Guerra, Matt Capps, Grant Balfour, Chris Perez, Jim Johnson or Matt Thornton. they all have their issues, but I expect that at least one of them should be available at 12.06. In my opinion Frank Francisco has not these issues. He has not much competition and was already named the closer. He is proven enough to not get removed quickly in case of a few bad outings. And finally his percentage stats should be better than some of the mentioned closers.
12.06 Matt Joyce, OF, TB
Like a few rounds earlier I am still searching for a hitter at C, 2B or 3B. I saw no real value at this point so I took a 4th OF instead. Looking at his projections he looks similar to Nick Markakis whom I took 4 rounds earlier. percentages are slightly above average, as well as runs, RBIs and 10 SBs aren't too shabby either. The only concern is his reduced number of plate appearances. Most sites project him only to get 450 to 500 compared to 600+ for Markakis. At worst I need a bench player to occasionally fill his spot.
13.11 Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/3B, TOR
I still needed a 3B. The pool as dry already. Encarnacion, who will DH most of the time, stood out a bit because he should not hurt my percentages as much as others. He may even help my team in SLG. run and RBI potential is there, his average projection is somewhere around 65/65 with a peak of 80/80. I would be happy with 65/65. as a DH he may get more rest to get others into the lineup, so I need to look for a servicable backup 3B later in the draft.
14.06 Jaime Garcia, SP, STL
It was time for a 4th starter. I looked at a pitcher who has a good K-rate without hurting ERA/WHIP too much. I also looked at Fister and Cueto, but Garcia seems to have the most potential of being better than 14th round value which is all that you are searching for at this point. The aces are gone so you either search for the ace of tomorrow or a proven average guy. I hope Garcia is more the ace of tomorrow than the average guy, but I wouldn't be unhappy if he just plays average.
15.11 Ryan Raburn, 2B/OF, DET
We need to start at least one 2nd baseman, right? Raburn qualifies there as well as in the outfield. He is also projected to DH a lot this year. For me the only important thing is that he has rare power for a 2B available this late. every 2B at this point will hurt your percentages, Raburn even hurts in SB, but not that much in SLG.
After this pick I only have 3 starting positions open: Catcher (after the top5 they are all pretty equal, so I can wait a bit more. I hoped for Yadier Molina but I waited too long), CI (youth or age is the question there, which I don't want to answer yet) and Util which usually means best OF available.
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| 2 | Goldcoach
ID: 331042822
Thu, Mar 15, 2012, 19:31
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11.12 Adam Lind 1B, TOR
All the top rated first basemen have come off the board and I still need one. Of those left Lind seems to have the best chance to produce some decent power.…I’m still trying not to finish last in HRs and RBIs even though I know I won’t be among the leaders here. A solid season from him could be coming especially as he might be getting comfortable at his new position after adjusting from the OF last year.
12.05 Johan Santana sp, NYM
This is a boom or bust pick. I do not expect a “good” season from Johan, he’s either recovered from the shoulder surgery and will be great, or he’s washed up, done, kaput, ready for the pasture, etc…. I may be in trouble if he doesn’t come through for me as I have now learned the Carpenter has a disc issue with his neck, and the NYYs are concerned about lost velocity from Pineda. Happily the news from florida this spring has been all positive on Johan so I pull the trigger…and hope.
13.12 Brennan Boesch, OF, DET
Is he really injury prone or did he just have a bad run? If he stays healthy will he HIT? I am obviously expecting a plus year from the young outfielder. Coupled with Lind I should now be in play for 5 or 6 roto points (out of 16) in the HR category with better scores in RBIs. Was their a better choice on the board at the time? I seriously considered Rasmus here but went with Boesch due to a stronger perceived upside.
14.05 Grant Balfour RP, OAK
The closer run was fast and brutal leaving very little in its wake. By the time the draft returns to me all the upper tier closers/RPs are history so I decide to wait a few rounds to see what I can scavenge. Now I am ready to mine the depths and am faced with a dilemma. Do I take Balfour or Fuentes; who will be the Oakland closer? It appears that the manager is leaning towards Fuentes, but Balfour has better stuff and performed well in a temporary role there last year. I think that at some point (sooner rather than later) Balfour will get the gig even if Fuentes starts out with the job. Why not take Fuentes now and grab Balfour off the waiver wire? I think he’ll be drafted as he will put up good numbers even without the possibility of saves. So now’s the time.
15.12 Mike Aviles, 2B, BOS
I need a second baseman, my draft so far has me playing small ball, so who fits best with my team? Ah..here’s a good contact hitter who is playing in one of the most potent offenses in either league. Sure he’s slated to play short but he qualifies at 2nd looks to get a lot of Abs which coupled with a good avg leads to runs scored. He won’t hit to many homers or steal a lot, but its deep in a 16 team draft as well.
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| 3 | Evan
ID: 5720121
Thu, Mar 15, 2012, 20:25
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11:07 - Joe Nathan RP TEX
Relief pitchers were flying off the board. I have never been one to select closers early but it hurt me in last years draft when I ended up with only Brandon League and Sergio Romo. Just because there is a run doesn’t mean I should continue the run but Joe Nathan was sticking out like a sore thumb. He fulfilled a need and has potential to get a lot of saves with a great Texas team. Hopefully he can keep his health and someone like Feliz doesn’t transfer back into the closer role. I think a player with Nathan’s pedigree will hold on to the role.
12:10 - Yadier Molina C STL
I felt he was the best player available here and gives me a great backup for Joe Mauer. Here is how I see it... If Mauer is back to being Mauer, he will be an absolutely fine UTIL or 1B (if he becomes eligible) thus allowing me to plug in the safe and reliable Molina at C. If Mauer doesn’t work out, well... I have the safe and reliable Molina who won’t hurt me in any category. Not a sexy pick, but I felt it was a necessary one for my team.
13:07 - Aaron Hill 2B ARI
I had Daniel Murphy all ready in my queue. But nope, jdrenbarger stole him right before my pick. Still pretty upset about it. I had no second baseman and I really don’t feel comfortable with this pick because mainly, I don’t know what to expect from the guy. 8 HRs and 20 SBs last year when the previous two years he averaged 31 HRs and 4 SBs? I have no idea what he will do. WILDCARD!
14:10 - Hiroki Kuroda SP NYY
Kind of surprised he lasted until here. I was considering taking him a couple of rounds ago and assumed he would be gone. I’ve been a big fan of drafting Kuroda the past few years. I completely understand that his numbers are going to rise since he is leaving the NL, a weak offensive division, and the friendly confines of Chavez Ravine. But he still is a reliable pitcher. His ERA should remain under/around 4.00 and his WHIP will remain low. I hate predicting wins but he could get a lot with the Yankee offense in front of him. I feel this was a safe pick as my 4th starter.
15:07 - Jonny Venters RP ATL
I panicked. I don’t exactly know why I did this. I felt that I needed one of the top setup men in the business. He’ll help me in Ks, ERA, and WHIP but after picking him, I smack myself and remember that relief pitchers are a dime a dozen, especially ones who aren’t going to get you saves! Maybe Kimbrel will get hurt and then I have fantasy gold. Maybe this will start a run on setup men in our league leaving other target players available for me ;). Or maybe I just made an awful decision and will have to figure out a way to come back from this. From the slim pickings in this draft already and the level of expertise from the owners, I have a feeling that will be very difficult for myself.
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| 4 | philliephanjr
ID: 172371318
Thu, Mar 15, 2012, 20:41
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11.10 Carlos Marmol RP
There were no good, reliable closers left, so I took the most valuable unreliable one. I could see him being a top 5 closer and I could see him losing his job at the end of April. If he holds the job I expect this to be the closest the closer run has to a steal. And if he loses the job, there are 9 other categories...
12.7 Melky Cabrera OF
I'm not sure I believe last year was not somewhat flukey, but just the possibility of getting 90/90/20 with an .800 OPS is enough to take the risk.
13.10 Torii Hunter OF
I am surprised how low Hunter is ranked this year. I almost took him in the 12th round but was thrilled he was still here considering I believe he is projected to hit behind Pujols. His average have been declining but I think he can rebound a bit from last year with Pujols sitting on first a lot.
14.7 Jeff Francoeur OF
Filling out all the OF slots here. No sexy explanation for this. Fairly young guy put up 20 SB and had an OPS of .800 last year on a young team and it is the 14th round.
15.10 Addison Reed RP
This is my vote of confidence in Thornton. Honestly my concern isn't that Thornton will hold the job but that someone besides Reed will get it when he fails. Worst case scenario he is a 7th or 8th inning lefty that should still help a bit in other categories.
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| 5 | mmikulka
ID: 532511111
Fri, Mar 16, 2012, 04:19
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11.08 Carlos Pena 1B TB
It’s sure nice to be able to wait over 160 picks and still be able to get a 1B who has a career SLG of .486! Like Reynolds, his strikeouts and batting average are terrible, but like Reynolds, he walks a ton: over 100 times last year. Because of this, I don’t have to worry about his potential to bat .220 because his OBP has been at least .125 better than his AVG for 5 consecutive years! He is 33, but Pujols, Holliday, and Youkilis are all 32+ and that doesn’t seem to be dissuading anybody from taking them.
12.09 Ryan Howard 1B PHI
One major downside to taking Howard in this league is the lack of roster space: He’ll be wasting 25% of my bench until at least May, and likely into June. The way Phillies’ injuries seem to play out, it’s never safe to assume he’ll be back at all this year. However, for this late in the draft, there was nobody remotely approaching his upside: his “disappointing” season last year included 81 R, 116 RBI, and an OPS of .835. Not only does Howard have the most RBI over the past 3 years, he has 13 more than 2nd place (Pujols) despite over 80 fewer plate appearances.
13.08 Justin Morneau 1B MIN
Yeah, three 1B in a row. I needed a starting CI for at least the next few months, and like Howard, Morneau stood out with regard to upside. Concussions are worrisome, and there is the possibility he might stay mired in the batting funk he was in when he came back last year, but unless Howard’s injury worsens, it still won’t be a big deal as it couldn’t be much of a downgrade from the other CI options available at this point. And if he happens to be healed and can come anywhere near approaching his previous stats… well this is a guy who was on pace for 106 R, 112 RBI, and an OPS of 1.055 when he was knocked out in July of 2010.
14.09 Alejandro De Aza OF CWS
So far I only have 1 starting pitcher, so I took an unproven outfielder who has an outside chance of being stuck in a platoon!! My team really needed steals, and De Aza was on pace for 36 last year. I think 25-30 is a more realistic estimate, but what sold me is that he is expected to bat leadoff and that he should have enough power to avoid hurting me in the other categories (.520 SLG through 54 games last year, though I’m sure he won’t come anywhere near that).
15.08 Brian Fuentes RP OAK
Most of the reports I’ve been reading suggest he has a slight edge over Balfour in the closer battle as long as they will have a second lefty in the bullpen. Fuentes is old and isn’t very good, but Balfour is almost as old and not so great himself. This could turn out to be a worthless pick, but as the last closer candidate with a 50/50 shot, I needed to grab him. I’ll gladly take a line of 4.30/1.33 if it comes over half a season with 15 saves.
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| 6 | Toral
ID: 010321615
Fri, Mar 16, 2012, 14:02
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11.14 Kepley Jansen, RP, LAD (Other AAA 12.01)
The ‘serious closer’ run took Brandon League (11.09) and Carlos Marmol (11.10) off my queue, and arguably the tier came to an end right there. But there was one more reliever who I had on the same level. Some might say that Jansen’s worth as a closer is diminished by the fact that someone else has the job. But it seems to be the unanimous opinion that he is a better pitcher than the incumbent and will take over before long.
BTW that oft-cited record for most K/9 over a 50-inning threshold is kind of cheesy isn’t it? Who keeps track of records with a 50-inning threshold anyway?
12.03 Chris Perez, RP, Cle, (Other AAA 12.08)
I gave a lot of thought to this one, but was still somewhat muddled. Does Perez deserve to be considered a ‘full closer’, or one close enough to be drafted here, or not? His K rate declined seriously last year, but he was still considered to have a lock on the job. Then he strained his left oblique; but he is hopeful of being ready by Opening Day. Like the Dodger closer, his set-up man is probably a better pitcher; but Perez did have 30+ saves last year and presumably will be harder to dethrone.
I thought that the players I would likely pick instead would likely be here next round, so I went ahead with Perez.
13.14 Jose Tabata, OF, Pit (Oth AAA 16.04)
Tabata was indeed still around in the 12th, and might have lasted a few more rounds, but I wanted him here. Hamstring and hand injuries gave him a mediocre looking line last year, but he improved his walks (.083 Isolated Batting Eye), held his Isolated Power, and stole 9 bases in the first 20 games of the season indicating his potential when healthy. He’s 23, and could have a .380 OBP and steal 30 bases while batting 1st or 2nd with Pirates. He could turn out to be the always-injured type, but the year before he had over 600 AB, so it hasn’t been a continuing thing with him.
14.03 Chase Headley, 3B, SD (Other AAA 10.07)
Headley declined in homers last year but his SLG went up. He had a nice .374 OBP and contributed 10+ stolen bases, as he does every year. This is his age-27 year and he should have his best year yet if healthy. He’ll do at the CR slot.
Considered taking Grant Balfour while he was still around but decided I needed to work on my hitters. Goldcoach took him at 14.05.
15.14 Wandy Rodriguez, SP, Hou (Other AAA 15.13)
A model of consistency the last few years, and his K/BB ratios do not portend sudden decline. 12 wins, 170 Ks, 3.50 ERA or better, and can win more if the team is better than expected.
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| 7 | judy
Dude
ID: 7771722
Fri, Mar 16, 2012, 14:18
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11.13 Matt Capps RP MIN
I already know this is my worst pick so far. What a loser for a c-loser (get it?), but I figured I needed some saves. Sheesh. I am expecting absolutely nothing from this guy. I know from prior experience that you can't bail completely on the saves category, so I felt I had topic him up. I feared a run on closers between my 10:04 pick and this one, but I never thought they would all be gone!! Well 26 are gone… are there more losers than Capps?
12.04 Brandon Morrow SP TOR
This pick was exclusively for K’s. He is expected to have over 200. Hopefully his ERA will stay below 4.00 and his WHIP will be below 1.30, but I am not convinced it will happpen. Any games he wins are a plus... although I do recall reading somewhere that he was a sleeper pick? These two picks were really crummy.
For my P so far (Lee, Hellickson, Morrow and Capps), in theory, I am half way to wins and K’s. But I fear my overall ERA and WHIP are way too high. Gotta find guys to bring those down…
13.13 John Mayberry OF PHL
I got caught by surprise with this pick. I had made three different position lists before I went to bed expecting to pick in the afternoon after seeing what the run on players was., But … when I woke up it was my turn! YIPES! I debated between him, Pagan, D Young and Fowler. This was definitely a “homer” pick. However, Mayberry will be playing both LF and 1B while Howard is out -- now probably until June or later. He was sent to AAA last season and completely retooled his stroke and the results showed when he was called up. His counting predictions are based on about 350 AB so I think he will get many more. So I can see 80 and rbis, a dozen steals and an over .425 SLG.
14.04 Angel Pagan OF SF
This speedy dude is the starting CF for SF. I mostly grabbed him for his runs and steals. Anything else he does is a bonus. His OBP (~.330) and SLG (~.400) are decent for a little guy. I will be comparing him with D Young and Fowler as the season progresses as those were the other two I was considering. D Young went at 15.05 and Fowler went at 14.01, so I am guessing we all had them evaluated about the same. I went for the speed here. I now have a predicted SB total of over 200. That should do it.
My 4 OF plus OF/UTL is now set as: CarGo, Choo, A. Jackson, Mayberry and Pagan. I will need to add a 6th at some point.
I now have all my batter starters except for the C position. I have 6 C ranked about the same and 5 of us need C, so I will wait -- maybe in the next round or two I might try for one.
15.13 Edwin Jackson SP WASH
This pick was pure and simple for more K’s, somewhere around 165 would be nice. I do not like that he pitches for WASH as he won’t get a heck of a lot of W for me. But they all say that the change of scenery will do him good! His ERA and WHIP are just OK (~.385 and ~1.33). We shall see. At this point the top tiers of SP were gone. We had picked 51 so far. He is my 4th SP and that is about what I am expecting from him? Seven teams have 4 SP, the rest have less. Just some FYI for you…
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| 8 | mailedfoot
ID: 491522317
Fri, Mar 16, 2012, 20:49
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11.09 Brandon League RP, SEA
I needed to get another closer here and the main choice was League or Marmol. I decided that League was in the more secure position and chose him despite Marmol's advantage in K/9.
12.08 Zack Cozart SS, CIN
By this time, I am behind the eight ball on MI and decided to select Cozart, who demonstrated some potential in a short stint at the major league level last year. He has a little power, can steal some bases, and is listed as sleeper pick by some of the "experts". For a 12th round pick, I have nothing to lose and alot to gain if he can come through.
13.09 Mike Moustakas 3B, KC
Moustakas struggled as a rookie last year, but did turn things around some in September. I am looking for him to continue his development and become the hitter he has been in the minors, hopefully sooner rather than later. He can fill in the CI spot and also serves as insurance for Lawrie at 3B.
14.08 Yoenis Cespedes OF, OAK
Not really sure what I've got with this pick, but am going to take the ride and see where it goes. Potential 5 category hitter.
15.09 Mike Minor SP, ATL
Felt I needed to add some pitching but had trouble sorting through all the options. Decided to take the plunge with Minor as I like his K/9 ratio, seems like he has a lot of upside, and has looked good so far this spring.
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| 9 | JL
ID: 27211172
Sat, Mar 17, 2012, 03:12
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11.16 Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Cle
Ubaldo is another player that has a ton of upside at this drafting position, especially now that he’s out of Colorado. His peripheral statistics suggest he’s likely to bounce back from last year’s down year. With Josh Johnson, Wainwright, and now Jimenez, I have three pitchers that could easily be expected to perform well above their draft position.
12.01 Ervin Santana, SP, LAA
I live in Japan, so many of my picks have been made after the buzz of the email from my phone wakes me up at 3am to tell me that it’s my turn to draft. This pick was clearly a result of that. If I had been awake and alert, I would have taken a closer at this point, especially given how quickly they were disappearing. With Santana, I get what I feel is a consistently decent #4 fantasy starter that still has the potential to put it all together and finish with 17 Wins, 180 Ks, a low 3 ERA, and a 1.25 WHIP.
13.16 Geovany Soto, C, Chi
Soto was a monster in 2008 and 2010, so I have some reason to believe he can bounce back from a dreadful 2011 and post a .350/.430-ish type season. I felt that if I didn’t take a catcher at this point, I would likely be left with a percentages-killer later on.
14.01 Dexter Fowler, OF, Col
Needs: OF, RP, Corner Infielder
The Closers are gone, so that’s out. The Corner Infield options will still be available at the next turn, so we’ll wait. At OF, I’m looking at Carlos Quentin, but the move to San Diego has a chance to sap his power. I also looked at Kubel, but just felt that Fowler had more potential. He’s still relatively young, gets on base at a decent clip, and steals a few bases. He’s a nice mix between established, but still with upside.
15.16 Mike Adams, RP, Tex,
I missed out on the Closer run, and I’m fairly well-set at the other positions, so I decided to go with a potential closer. If Nathan falters, Adams may get a shot. If not, he’s still a great option for improving my ERA/WHIP. I was really hoping to grab Venters here, but he was taken surprisingly early.
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| 10 | Seattle Zen
ID: 10732616
Sat, Mar 17, 2012, 10:55
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Did you all know that this November the citizens of the great state of Washington will vote to make us the first state to legalize marijuana possession for adults? I-502 is sponsored by a slew of current and former politicians, prosecutors and celebrities and has millions of dollars of mainstream support. So perhaps next year I will not only explain what my thought process behind which player I choose, I will also describe which strain of marijuana helped my thought process? Each strain has a name and sometimes the name is derived from the two strains that were combined to create it. My favorite new name is the combination of Trainwreck and White Widow aptly named Courtney Love.
11.05.165 This is the closer run. At this point, four teams have no closers, two teams have two and GO has three. Suddenly, Taiwan goes from 0 to 2 and two more come off the board. I like Joaquin Soria’s outlook this season - gone. I want a second closer, but by the time I pick, I think I can wait another round. I need steals and I think there is just one player left who will steal 30 or more with a SLG over 400 and that’s 11.05.165 Peter Bourjos. I took him very late last year and he was a gem. The draft is headed towards the teams that are really thin in the outfield, I have to think that Judy, Toral and GO will take one before it comes back to me at 188. I also like Dexter Fowler, he may have figured it out in the second half of the season after a short shunning in CO Springs (shudder). I’m not taking a third baseman right now, I’m eyeing Carlos Peña and Ubaldo Jimenez. What I like about Bourjos is he is a great defender and many people think that if he increased his OBP, he could move to leadoff or second, if either HKendrick or Aybar get hurt or suck. PB at leadoff would be serious money.
12.12.188 Dude, Mat Gamel was my idea! I’m flabbergasted that he is gone in the 12th round. Still not going to panic at third, I will wait until later. But this does make me concerned about my other sleeper picks. I’d better focus upon getting a second closer. I’m leaning towards Matt Thornton. Yes, last year he melted down in the starting gate and had to be destroyed, but once he was removed from the closer role, he pitched quite well. He has a sane manager this year and even though the Sox have some prep school debutant from Stanford, CN named Addison in the wings, I actually think he will keep the job this season. Now, will he make it to me? Speaking of darling little girls with upside, the Sanchez Sisters of South Beach, Anibal and Gabby, have caught my eye. I do a little research and wow, I didn’t realize how good Anibal was last year. This article seals it for me: Anibal Sanchez kicked ass last year.
While Matt Berry is polishing his video cover letter to the executive producers of Extra!, guys like the author of this piece, who all have real day jobs, use advanced metrics that would make Berry’s head explode.
Perhaps he is still available, and not too popular nationwide, because he has not thrown a pitch in Spring Training. He is scheduled to start this week, so I’m not concerned and consider the delay, the type of spring noise that allows for sleepers. I’m now totally on board with
12.12.188 Anibal Sanchez and will hope that the other teams behind me are dubious of Matt Thornton.
Goat takes Thornton and Jim Johnson and then I praise the slow draft gods as I remembered 13.05.197 Brett Myers. Seriously, I had completely forgotten that the Stros named Myers their closer. He has a great arm for the bullpen, there is NO ONE else in their pen worth beans, but he is a risk to get traded at some point. They tried trading him all winter with no luck because he is due $11M and has a performance incentive that will trigger a vesting of his 2013 option. I imagine him being a very good closer getting around 25 saves up to the trade deadline, getting traded to some team with a 50-50 chance that he would serve as the closer on that squad. I like those odds better than Grant Balfour Take Your Base.
Justin Morneau is player number 200, can we call him Mr. Somewhat Relevant? Not a bad time to take a guy with huge upside and some many doubts. Will he join Josh Beckett as a three time bounceback player, forever enshrined in the Hall of Brett Saberhagen? As a Twins fan, I sure hope so.
Mike Moosetacos and Edwin E come off the board, further shrinking the third base field. Not interested in Chase Headley, his .374 OBP last year was an aberration, his career numbers coming into 2011 were in the .330’s and I suspect he will have a .340 and a slugging below .400 and miss time because he is fragile.
Holy Cow John Mayberry Jr. comes off the board early! I like all 6’7” of this guy, but there goes another $1 sleeper smack in the middle of the draft. Judy’s other OF, Angel Pagan, will do very well this year atop the Giants lineup, he might not hit a home run at home, but his batting average ought to improve sending his OBP up to .340. He is a successful basestealer, so pencil in 30 steals. 650 plate appearances could lead to 85 runs, the Giants simply have to have a better offense output this year.
Seeing Gamel and Mayberry Jr. fly off the board, I fear my stealthy, tiny secondbase sleeper, 14.12.220 Jose Altuve, may not be around long. I have my eye on Josh Willingham, the always underappreciated outfield masher and Mark Trumbo. Trumbo has been playing third this spring and supposedly is going to be given an opportunity to win the job, but I have some doubts. First, The Scociapath is the type of manager that makes roto managers pull their hair out, he is always tinkering with his lineup and pulling guys for defensive replacements. He ran Mike Napoli out of town. Trumbo was one of my more inspired late round draft picks last season, the guy can mash, but his OBP never cracked .300. He’s a big boy, can he handle the hot corner? Angels DH slot is the most crowded position in baseball with Bobby Abreu and a possibly healthy Kendrys Morales clogging the spot. There is a non-drafted, English as a second language third baseman on the roster who is a much better fielder and his bat is nothing to sneeze at, so I fear for Trumbo’s chances. If he gets traded, he certainly won’t get his third base eligibility.
I like Altuve more than Jemile Weeks. My Pedroia-sized speedster was born in 1990! When he was 19 years old in 2009, he stole 30 bases in 66 games. In 2010 he stole 42 and last year he stole 32. He also hit .400 in winter ball. Mike Podhorzer of Fangraphs is very bullish on Jose for this year and I have hitched my horse on Podhozer’s predictions this year.
He is also very high on 15.05.229 Delmon Young this season and so am I. I like the fact that he is hitting fifth behind two .400 OBP guys and he is no longer stuck hitting in Target Field. I find it hard to believe he is only 26, it seemed just like yesterday that he was flinging bats at umpires in the minors ;) His biggest drawback is his unwillingness to take a base on balls, just get me bushels of RBI, stay healthy/focused and I’ll forgive you.
There are a bunch of picks afterwards that make me scratch my head. How many at bats will Raul Ibanez get splitting DH time with A Jones? How long will Goldcoach have to wait before Bryce Harper is getting at bats in DC? If Mitch Moreland can finally slug like the firstbaseman he looks like, he’ll be great, otherwise I could see Napoli taking a lot of his at bats away. Love the upside of Mike Minor, Steven Drew comes from Mr. and Mrs. Disappointing. Mr. Marcum is a great pick at 248.
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| 11 | jdrenbarger
ID: 172221814
Sun, Mar 18, 2012, 15:25
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11.06 Kyle Farnsworth, RP, TAM
With 18 designated closers already taken, 20 picks before I get to again draft, and the top of my closer list now full of guys I really don’t want to end up with due to past bad experiences with them (e.g., Marmol, Thornton, Perez), I spend little time choosing Farnsworth. I’ve never been one to draft a closer before I absolutely have to and I’m happy to end up with him … warts and all.
12.11 Javy Guerra, RP, LAD
Closers continue to fly off the board, leaving me with little to pick from (Myers, Thornton, Johnson and Guerra) and little chance there will be any left when I’m up in the 13th round. I go with the guy currently designated to close—albeit with not nearly the stuff Jansen has—with the Dodgers. Decent chance he keeps the job and I hover around the middle of the pack in saves.
13.06 Daniel Murphy, 2B, NYM
Am now at the point that my board doesn’t guide my choices nearly as much as perceptions about how long I can wait to fill roster holes with someone I’d like—or not hate—to have. Taking passing note of the fact that I still have only two SPs, I elect to fill my MI slot as there are, to me, still plenty of passable OFs and CIs. 5th on my list, due to an expectation that he’ll only get around 400 ABs, is Murphy … I think he’ll play much more than that, I like his eligibility at 1B and 3B, and he should be superior in both ratios to the other guys I’m looking at (Hill, Bartlett, Drew, Furcal).
14.11 Josh Willingham, OF, MIN
I REALLY ought to be looking at pitchers here … but Josh Willingham and Jason Kubel are still available and project, to me, to be so vastly superior—excepting SBs—to the other remaining batters that I quickly decide to choose between them. I go with Willingham, who seems to be on all of my teams every year, knowing full well that he’ll miss a decent number of games mostly because I view him as a far safer bet then Kubel. When Willingham plays, he almost always produces and hits for power and his OBP, at worse, is generally at least a little above average.
15.06 Gavin Floyd, SP, CWS
Am pretty disappointed that Kubel went two picks before mine … had he still been available, I’ve have slotted him into my U vacancy and put off the drill of sorting through SPs for another round. No such luck, though. I’m electing this year to save my pitching “reaches” for the later rounds and I think my hitting is stacking up pretty well at this point, so I choose Floyd from a group also including Dan Bard, Shaun Marcum, Chris Sale and Colby Lewis. Floyd isn’t flashy and he’ll be pitching in the AL East, but there’s a decent amount of evidence that suggests that he’s been a victim of some bad luck (OK, could also be bad pitching) in the past and I’ll take a chance on that changing over choosing, at this point, one of two converted relievers, a guy coming off an injury, or a second TEX SP.
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| 12 | GoatLocker
Leader
ID: 060151121
Sun, Mar 18, 2012, 18:40
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11.03 Kendrys Morales, CI, LAA
Well, pick number 163 and it might be early since his ADP has been running about 221. I really feel from what I am seeing and reading that he is back and expect a real good season from him. I just didn’t feel comfortable that he would still be around at the end of the 12th round when I was back up again. I’m looking at somewhere around 65 run, 73 RBI, .362 OBP, .535 SLG. Still some risk with this pick, but hopefully he is a go at start of the season. Biggest issue could be if him and Abreu split time at DH.
12.14 Matt Thornton, RP, CWS
Well, as usual, not willing to spend a lot on Closers, and almost bit me in the rear. At this time in the draft after a big run on closers, there were only 4 expected starters at closer left on the board. Knew I couldn’t wait any more to take 2, or I would be out in the cold where I really did not want to be. So, I did get the #1 out of that list of 5. Not real confident here, but as always, you never know with closers.
13.03 Jim Johnson, RP,BAL
See comment above. Did not expect either drafter on the end to take a closer, since they both already had 2. So, I did get the #2 on my list and there were 2 left for everybody else.
14.14 Seth Smith, OF, OAK
Had actually had him at the top of my queue for the last 2 picks, but delayed on taking him due to the need for C-Losers. Another case of probably taking him too early. Looks like he will start the season as the DH and hitting in the 4 slot. Feel comfortable that he will help in all 5 Cats. Looking at how my cats were filling out, needed to work RBI and Runs, and he fit in real well for those 2 Cats without hurting any of the other 3.
15.03 Doug Fister, SP, DET
I have always felt comfortable in being able to fill out pitching. Felt good in picking up my 4th starter now and really like his chances this season. Playing for Detroit sure doesn’t hurt, and he should be the #3 starter for them. Only weak area is Ks, but was willing to not let that bother me since I figured he helped the other three categories.
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| 13 | TD
ID: 539351921
Mon, Mar 19, 2012, 21:32
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11.04 Max Scherzer, SP, Det
Scherzer's stats regressed some last season, but I think it was mostly due to bad luck. I think he is undervalued and expect stats better than his career averages. He will be a solid 3rd SP.
12.13 David Freese, 3B, Stl
I got Freese for CI/backup 3B. He was a hero in the playoffs especially in game 4 against the Phillies. Not too happy about that, but he is a productive at 3B. Health is a risk with Freese.
13.04 Brandon Belt OF,1B, SF
Got Belt as my OF 3/backup 1B. Belt struggled in the majors last season after having big expectations. He has the potential to be a surprise this season.
14.13 Mark Trumbo, 1B, LAA
Trumbo had a strong rookie season with good power numbers. Will initially start as UTIL in my lineup. May get 3B eligibility.
15.04 Jason Kubel, OF, Ari
I picked Kubel as my 4th OF. Moving from Minnesota to Arizona should help his power stats.
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| 14 | Great One
ID: 512531316
Mon, Mar 19, 2012, 22:15
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11.15 Adam Dunn, 1B, CHW
So I didn't take a 1B to this point as I plan to mix and match the position as I go. Dunn at the 175th pick in an OBP league seemed like a pretty reasonable gamble. If he has the comeback year I think he will this will be the steal of the draft. If he doesn't, well it didn't cost a whole lot to find out.
12.02 Mat Gamel, 3B, MIL
Finally getting an everyday shot, will be 1B/3B and part of my 1B rotation. We'll see if he's really more than a AAAA player he's shown to be to this point.
13.15 Clay Bucholz, SP, BOS
I don't really get why Clay is falling so far in all drafts this year but I'm happy to get a pitcher of his caliber this late. I am a Sox fan though, so maybe my optimism towards him is overly optimistic.
14.02 Jason Bay, OF, NYM
Betting on another rebound here with Bay, but again at this point - pick 210 overall - he's just another lottery ticket. When he's going well Bay is great across the board especially with OBP. They moved those fences in at CitiField so maybe that won't be in his head so much?
15.15 Mitch Moreland, 1B/OF, TEX
Another for my 1B/CI/OF variety pick where I can mix and match. I love Texas hitters... Judy loves him right?, surprised she didn't scoop him up already at pick 239 overall.
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