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Subject: RIBC AAA 2012 PCL #21-25 RATIONALES
Posted by: judy
- Dude [7771722] Sat, Mar 17, 2012, 15:59
The home stretch! |
| 1 | mmikulka
ID: 532511111
Sat, Mar 17, 2012, 17:39
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21.08 Francisco Cordero, RP, TOR
Sergio Santos currently has the closing job in Toronto, but this wasn’t a sure thing until recently, and if he slips up at all, Cordero is right there with 34+saves in 5 consecutive years. The last time Cordero had less than 10 saves was 2001. Can you think of any teams in Toronto’s division that could give an inexperienced closer a hard time? Hopefully Cordero will approach the 2.45/1.02 line he posted last year while I wait.
22.09 Eduardo Nunez, SS, NYY
This is primarily an injury handcuff and somebody who will be able to start on Jeter's days off. He’s in the top 25 in SB/game played, and he should fill in for A-Rod at 3B frequently enough that I don’t have to start my-25th-round-pick-who-must-not-be-named every single time Reynolds gets a day off.
23.08 Ivan Nova, SP, NYY
Nova finishes off my everyday rotation: he had 16 wins last year which was a bit of a fluke, but he also had a 3.70 ERA, and at age 25 should only be getting better. As a Mets and Red Sox fan, I’m hoping for a lot of unearned runs.
24.09 Kevin Gregg, RP, BAL
As I was debating who to take with my final picks, I noticed that Jim Johnson hasn’t officially locked down the Orioles’ closing duties, and Showalter said it’s an open competition between Johnson and Gregg. Chances are that it will still be Johnson (and it should be if the Orioles know what’s best for them). Johnson was awful in his most recent appearance, though, and considering how valuable saves are, it was worth a speculative pick.
25.08 xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, 3B, SEA
This player should not be starting in the majors anymore, never mind batting leadoff. In my opinion, he had an even worse season than Adam Dunn last year, and unlike Dunn, I think it was probably an accurate reflection of his current skill set. However, I wanted more steal potential and an everyday player to back up Reynolds, and with 32 3B off the board, he was the obvious choice. I suppose he is 1 year removed from 42 steals, but even then he slugged .306 and had 35 RBI. I’m just hoping his steals align with the days I have to start him.
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| 2 | Goldcoach
ID: 331042822
Sat, Mar 17, 2012, 18:47
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21.12 Brent Morel 3B, CWS
Doing a bit of positional depth protection here. 3B/CI is one of my weaker positions so far in the draft and things are getting thin. Brent looks like he has the starting gig for Chicago and could prove to be a steady player. If he gets hot I can slide him in for someone who may not be performing as well.
22.05 Andy Dirks OF, DET
Currently a back up the OF, I expect he’ll get some run if Delmon Young goes to DH, and/or someone else underperforms at the very least he adds some poer to my bench for the occasional spot start.
23.12 Brian Matusz, SP, BAL
Competing for the fifth spot in the rotation and having a good spring so far. Pitching in the AL East will be tough at best so I’ll have to pick my spots for him, but he shows lots of promise and maybe he’s ready to deliver this year.
24.05 Jonathan Broxton RP, KAN
With only one RP who has the closer gig in his pocket at the start of the season I felt it would be wise to have another reliever who could take over if the starter had any sort of issues. I now have Balfour, R. Soriano, and Broxton ready to go. At the very least I should get some K’s with Good ERA and WHIP with the odd late inning W out of this group; and they’re ready to go if the guy ahead falters or gets injured.
25.12 Brian Bogusevik, OF, HOU
Another bat for my bench. Nothing spectacular here; but then I didn’t expect to get Justin Uptin or Michaels Bourn in the 25th round either. I chose a young guy who has a starting OF slot for a young rebuilding team so he should get plenty of run. When he’s hot I’ll use him if he’s not he sits.
GREAT DRAFT FELLOW MANAGERS…NOW PLAY BALL
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| 3 | youngroman
ID: 56523304
Sat, Mar 17, 2012, 19:21
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21.11 Brandon Allen, 1B, OAK
looking at my roster I have no depth at 1B, 2B and 3B. There are still a few players left at 3B, so I looked at the other 2 positions. the available 2B's all suck, so I either take one of them with my last pick or take one when the first few games are played. I then looked at 1B and counted a total of 4 undrafted "starters": Brandon Allen, Aubrey Huff, Casey Kotchman and Daric Barton. I think Allen should have the best year of these 3.
22.06 Drew Pomeranz, SP, COL
We are down at picking sleepers. hitting regulars are pretty much gone already. the remaining ones are either injured right now, an injury waiting to happen or struggle to get above the Mendoza line. I don't like drafting a hitting sleeper if he does not get regular playing time early on. I better take a few pitchers and keep the ones that are not struggling early on. I hope that I keep Pomeranz more than the first few weeks of the season. Pomeranz is capable of getting an ERA below 4.00 and WHIP below 1.30. he should be even ok in the strikeout department. so why not take him here?
other pitchers considered here were Alfredo Aceves, Homer Bailey and Ivan Nova
23.11 Scott Rolen, 3B, CIN
Long ago I started searching for a backup 3B. Back then I thought about Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Chris Davis and Brent Morel. I wanted to pick one of them in the later rounds. All other 3 are gone, this is a late round, so it is time to pick him. Picking Rolen is not sexy. He is aging, his numbers are declining, his playing time is declining. But there are not many players left that will qualify at 3B and get regular playing time. He should slug over .400 which is far better than all the other available third baseman.
24.06 Homer Bailey, SP, CIN
I wanted another starting pitcher that may last longer than a week on my roster. Bailey has the potential, but I think he will be soon gone for a hot pickup in week 1.
25.11 Miguel Olivo, C, SEA
-- censored --
I know why I took him, but I won't tell you until the season starts. some of you might guess the reason.
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| 4 | judy
Dude
ID: 7771722
Sat, Mar 17, 2012, 19:36
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21.13 Rex Brothers RP COL
I needed to reduce my ERA and WHIP by picking up a coupla short relief RP hard throwers. Needless to say a lot of other managers had the same idea. I watched helplessly as Soriano, Benoit, Salas, Perkins (for when Capps collapses), and Cordero were plucked from my Q. Sigh. Brothers is most likely the closer of the future for COL. Yesterday in fact he got his first career major league (!) Save! He will fill in when the others are “tired”. He will be the first lefty out of the BP. His predicted ERA (3.60) and WHIP (1.35) are not as low as I would like, but his K/IP rate is most acceptable. There are some who think he might become the closer by the end of the season. Maybe I will get lucky there.
22.04 Tyler Greene 2B, SS STL
This is a crap shoot pick because it is a crap shoot who will play 2B for STL. He is not even listed in the ROTO tiered rankings! In fact, they don’t list any STL player for 2B. Great! Try this March 14 quote on for size: “While the thought all winter was that (undrafted) would be the Cardinals' second baseman this season, Greene was declared the favorite for the job by GM John Mozeliak at the end of last month.” Whatever. He might be the first guy to go...His AAA career line is decent at .291/.373/.477 but he is also 28 years old. He only has about 600 AB in four years worth of trips to the bigs. I have no clue about this guy and neither do the Cardinals!
23.13 Eric O’Flaherty RP ATL
Hey, it’s St Patty’s Eve, so why not. Actually I am looking for someone, anyone, to reduce my ERA and WHIP and this guy and Uehara (next pick) are the chosen ones since you guys stole all the ones at the top of my Q. While O’Flaherty is not a LOOGY, he is a lefty set up man with very good stats: in 73 IP last year he had 67 K, 0.98 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. While he won’t repeat his ERA it should still be a decent 2.50.
24.04 Koji Uehara RP TX
Another guy I need to lower my ERA and WHIP scores. There is some concern that he might be traded but I don’t care. That is not going to change the stat line I want from him. Last year was 65 IP with 85 K, 2.35 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. I like those figures. I felt I needed to grab both O’Flaherty and Uehara although I do not expect any saves from them. I just needed them to lower the ERA and WHIP totals -- have I said that often enough?
By my calculations, I am seeing an ERA of 3.53 and a WHIP of 1.25 from my current staff of 6 SP and 5 RP. That's not too great - middling value points. I am hoping, however that they get me 95 W, and 1312 K. Saves are a lost cause, I just hope I do not end up last...
25.13 Chris Iannetta C LAA
I looked and looked and looked for a guy to sit in the UTIL spot on off days and this is who I came up with. He’s left COL where he had moderate success. And look where he ended up -- with the Pujols gang! I don’t expect him to score a lot of runs or get rbi’s, but his expected OBP of ~.335 and a SLG of ~.415 are really not too shabby and have been pretty consistent career wise. I can also pop him into the C spot when Suzuki has off. I never come close to filling out that position’s limits. Also, he could stink it up and I could drop him flat out! Time will tell.
Well, my draft is over and if no one gets hurt, it should be a fine year!
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| 5 | Seattle Zen
ID: 10732616
Sat, Mar 17, 2012, 23:35
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At this point I had one of those moments... it's like a veil is lifted from my team, I see it fresh for the first time, and I say to myself, "oh, God, this team sucks!" I think it is looking at Jason Kipnis, Danny Valencia, Jose Altuve and Adam LsRoche in my starting line-up and wondering what went wrong. It's at times like these that I need to remind myself that this is a 16-team league and we all have weaknesses. I also remember a story in the NY Times recently about how the smartest college students typically underestimate how well they did on a test while the bottom quartile students almost always think they finished in the top half. A little self doubt is a sign that you know enough to be aware of how little you know.
That said, Michael Cuddyer had BETTER perform this year.
21.05.325 Glen Perkins. I've had Perkins at the bottom of my queue for a few rounds now. There is not a lot of faith in Matt Capps this season, so I'm a little surprised he was not one of the first five ML's taken. One problem I have with these bridesmaid relievers is if they start poorly out of the gates while the closer is throwing unhittable smoke, they are easy targets for dropping for the flavor of the week.
I had thought about Alexi Ogando. I think he'll be in the rotation for quite a bit of the season and he was lights out in the first half last year. Nice pick.
22.12.348 Casey McGehee. It came down to a decision between Ian Stewart and Casey. Ian has a job at third in Wrigley, but man, I don't really like him. Even though Casey might not start Opening Day, I don't think it will be long that Pedro Alvarez will be playing for another franchise, MLB or AAA. Casey will get into that lineup somehow, he's a decent bat and these are the Pirates.
23.05.357 Jon Rauch. Just replace "Capps" with "Frank Francisco" from the above post and you'll unnderstand my thought process again. Seriously, not a whole lot went into it :)
24.12.370 Hisashi Iwakuma. I drafted a Mariner! And a good one, I hope. Talk about under the radar, not even all the NSA wiretaps in the world have noticed this guy. He was supposedly the best player on the inaugural 2009 World Baseball Classic champion squad. Thanks to Yu Darvish garnering all the attention, his arrival is just not even mentioned.
And at this point, to paraphrase a quote improperly attributed to Mark Twain... Wise is the pitcher who has not thrown, for it is better to be thought bad than to have taken the mound and removed all doubt. I've seen the rest of these guys throw, let's take a chance on this new guy.
25.05.389 James McDonald The guy is 9-3 with a 3.18 ERA career in PNC Park. Hurray for daily transactions! He needs to stop walking people, that should be easy to fix.
Great job everyone and thank you Judy & Guru.
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| 6 | Toral
ID: 010321615
Sun, Mar 18, 2012, 10:07
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21.14 Nolan Reimold, OF, Bal (Other AAA 21.04)
Still looking for my UT here, with a preference for outfielders, since I may need backups there in case any of my motley crew is relegated to a platoon role, loses his job entirely, or is given his outright release. My projections show we strong in OBP, weaker in SLG and even weaker in RBI so I’m looking for something of a slugger. Was disappointed when Chris Davis was taken at 21.07 but Reimold fits the bill. Might get to play fulltime early if Markakis misses time, but if he can’t beat out Endy Chavez he might need to look for another profession anyway.
22.03 Francisco Rodriguez, RP, Mil (Other AAA 21.06)
in RIBC leagues, somebody always seems to grab my main closer’s set-up guy before I can get to him, but not this year. Rodriguez is one of the better set-up men anyway and the definite heir apparent if Axford goes down.
23.14 Fautino de Los Santos, RP, Oak (Other AAA 23.12)
Closer job still unsettled in Oakland. Lots of Ks and BBs. If Balfour blows up and they decide to use Fuentes as a LHOOS...*shrug*....
24.03 Cody Ross, OF, Bos (Other AAA 24.03)
This guy has been touring all the worst pitcher’s park in the National league for his whole career. Possible he could hit and produce in Boston. He would play full-time if Crawford is out early, enabling him to show he’s better than a platoon player.
25.14 Jeff Samardzija, RP, ChC (Other AAA ----- )
Let’s see...who’s a closer who could blow up and lose his job before the season. Marmol is. Who’s the guy with heat and no control behind him? This guy. After picking him I saw that he’s contending for a spot in the rotation, maybe earning him two starts to show that he belongs on the ‘Farmers.
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| 7 | jdrenbarger
ID: 172221814
Sun, Mar 18, 2012, 17:36
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21.06 David DeJesus, OF, CHC
Not much comparison being done at this point in the draft … I’ve got three multi-position players and don’t have an “extra” only at OF and SS, so I’m addressing those positions with two of my last picks. The other three picks will be pitchers … ideally one or two relievers as a start toward addressing my ratios, although those guys are already pretty much picked over. I go with DeJesus here instead of Jason Bartlett at SS (and again bypass Cody Ross … watch him make the All Star Team this year) as he’s set to bat leadoff for the Cubbies and ought to be a passable sub on the days that I need him.
22.11 Alfredo Aceves, SP, BOS
Aceves has sat at the top of my pitching board for some time … whether he makes the rotation or goes back to the bullpen, he projects to deliver ratios that are way better than most of the rest of my staff. Might be best for me, in fact, if both he and Dan Bard end up in the Boston bullpen.
23.06 Jonathan Sanchez, SP, KC
Another guy I end up with every year and purely a speculative pick in the hopes that he finally delivers on his huge upside potential. Not many guys that average a K per inning and he’s clearly worth the gamble to me at this point in the draft.
24.11 Joel Peralta, RP, TAM
Am somewhat surprised to find him still available … hadn’t even thought to check until this round, in fact. Don’t know that I’ve ever had the “lady in waiting” for one of my closers before, am I’m glad I can add a reliever who projects, albeit with not a lot of innings, to be pretty solid across the board.
25.06 Alex Gonzalez, SS, MIL
Taking a SS here no matter what and probably should have taken Jason Bartlett in the 24th … Gonzalez is the best of the rest. Barely decent pop at this point and absolutely brutal OBP … best case is that he knocks it out of the park on the 5-8 days that I hope to be able to limit him to in my lineup.
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| 8 | Evan
ID: 5720121
Sun, Mar 18, 2012, 23:13
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21:07 Chris Davis 1B/3B BAL
A player I really don’t like but the potential is there. If there was a guy going this late that could hit 30+ HR this is the guy. I’m going to give him a shot. It looks like he’ll be the Orioles starting first baseman. He’ll strike out a ton, give me a low batting average, and will have extensive stretches of slumping but like all of the picks this late, if he puts it together he could be an absolute steal. Hoping for a bunch of HR and RBI.
22:10 Phil Hughes SP NYY
Pure risk/reward pick at this point. I’m a Yankee fan and am tired of hearing about him becoming the next “ace”. It was absolutely frustrating to see him pitch at an All-Star level a couple of years ago only to fall into oblivion. I’m still waiting for him to break out and show some consistency. If he does, I’ll be in great shape. Lets hope he makes the roster.
23.07 Andy Pettitte SP NYY
Andrew Eugene Pettitte is back. Hahahaha... this was a homer pick. How could I not pick one of my all-time favorite players a couple of hours after announcing that he is coming back to baseball?! I know he won’t provide me unbelievable stats but this guy wouldn’t be coming back unless he was passionate about it. He is a gamer. Rarely does he get blown out and he always keeps his team in the game. Pettitte is like Tim Hudson at this point in their careers; both old but experts in throwing the baseball. I’ll gladly stash him on my bench the first month/month and a half and wait for him to get ready. Hopefully he’ll provide me with some good pitching statistics and should get some wins with that Yankee lineup behind him. What is funny about this is that he may replace my LAST pick, Phil Hughes, in the rotation. Or maybe Phil Hughes gets traded to a place with less pressure. This could be real good for my team.
24:10 Franklin Gutierrez OF SEA
Another player I usually have on my team. I’ve seen the guy play in person a couple of times and love his athleticism. He had very good year in 2009/2010 and last year he batted just .224/.261/.273 while battling oblique issues and IBS. I think he has the potential of being a good bounce back candidate. He isn’t with the best offense but if he secures HRs in the low teens with a bunch of steals and runs, I’ll be happy.
25:10 Aaron Crow SP/RP KAN
He was a pretty great reliever being turned into a starter a la Neftali Feliz and Daniel Bard. If he does well, I hit big. If he goes back into the relief role, I may get good ratios. Just a pure upside pick. Not much else to say, we’ll see what he can give me.
It's tough to look at my team and seeing it win a league. I'm pretty bummed about only taking 1 closer. We'll see how it goes. I'll give it everything I got.
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| 9 | JL
ID: 24252197
Mon, Mar 19, 2012, 09:27
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21.16 Mark Buerhle, SP, Mia
Buerhle has been intermittently decent over the past decade and, with a move away from the AL and US Cellular, he may have some value here. I don’t think anyone would necessarily be shocked to see him post 15 Wins and a 3.25 this year.
22.01 Alexi Ogando, SP, Tex
A poor man’s Neftali Feliz pick, I suppose. Much like Feliz, I could see Ogando either winding up in the closer role (previously great stats out of the bullpen), or as a great starter (wonderful numbers as a starter during the first half of last season), or as a bust. Well worth the risk at this point.
23.16 Jake Peavy, SP, Chi
I don’t expect him to be on my team for long, but he’s a former Cy Young winner that had a great ability to miss bats, and he’s still only 30. Maybe we get a surprise bounce-back year.
24.01 Rick Porcello, SP, Det
At this point you just put players on your queue that have starting jobs and hope for the best. His potential is low due to his inability to get Ks, but he’s playing on a good team in a pitcher’s park.
25.16 Julio Borbon, CF, Tex
Likely won’t be on my team on Opening Day. I threw some names on the queue and set it to auto-pick. Perhaps he wins the starting job, miraculously learns how to get on base, and becomes a base-stealing machine.
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| 10 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Mon, Mar 19, 2012, 12:00
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21.01 Tyler Pastornicky
Figured I would just get every middle infielder I could. This guy's a decent prospect and looks to have a spot in Atlanta, and might steal some bags.
22.16 Trevor Bauer
Highly touted prospect on a young, up-and-coming team. He could be the kind of guy that goes on a hot streak for the whole summer.
23.01 Mike Trout
The best prospect in baseball. Let's talk again in June.
24.16 Ryan Dempster
Mr. Reliable. Projected for a ton of K's this year.
25.01 Jarrod Parker
I think I hit the wrong button.
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| 11 | philliephanjr
ID: 14245115
Mon, Mar 19, 2012, 14:53
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21.10 Jesse Crain RP
Another vote of no confidence in Matt. Apparently this guy is more likely than Addison at the start of the year although I think Reed still gets the most saves of the 3.
22.7 Orlando Hudson 2B
Needed a MI and found a guy that should only hurt me in 3 or 4 categories.
23.10 Michael Brantley OF
I don't know why. I was just like hey I'll get another OF you can't have too many of those.
24.7 Kerry Wood RP
Should put up decent stats and hopefully is in line for the job if Marmol goes crazy.
25.10 Ramon Hernandez C
Catcher with a bit of power going to Coloado...worth a flyer with no one else I care about. I almost took Samardzija here but the prospect of having 3 cubs RPs was too depressing.
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| 12 | Great One
ID: 512531316
Mon, Mar 19, 2012, 22:31
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21.15 Chipper Jones, 3B, ATL
Thinking I'll start him til he gets hurt... sound like a plan? He'll be good til then. Its the 335th pick. A recurring theme in these last 6 picks is that I don't really care cause there was nobody else I loved and these are just the first guys I will drop. I am best working free agents, not doing research or local papers finding some diamond 400th overall sleeper pick.
22.02 Alfonso Soriano, OF, CHC
He used to be really good. What happened?
23.15 Ruben Tejada, 2B/SS, NYM
Gonna have to start Tejada due to a lack of MI options so hopefully he just doesn't hurt me til something better comes along.
24.02 Ricky Nolasco
Nothing like a crazy SP with strikeout potential... and his new ballpark is supposedly pitcher friendly? can't hurt I guess. Plus better lineup and bullpen will help him out.
25.15 Ty Wigginston, UT, PHI
Kind of like this pick actually. Will get some early PT in Philly and might even play some 2B I hear now with Utley's injury. But at least 1B/3B/OF he's find plenty of PT with Howard out and Polanco is not a legit starting 3B (sorry Philly fans, he's overrated. Much like your favorite Ruiz who I assume went undrafted in a 400 pick league unless a Phillies fan took him).
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| 13 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Wed, Mar 21, 2012, 11:15
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21.04 Fernando Salas, RP, Stl
I expect Salas to continue to have a good ERA, WHIP, and K rate. Salas had 24 saves last season so he could be used as a closer again if Motte struggles or gets injured.
22.13 Edward Mujica, RP, Mia
Another RP to help with pitching stats with a chance for some saves if Bell gets injured.
23.04 Michael Stutes, RP, Phi
I was on vacation golfing in Myrtle beach and didn't have time to research the last three picks. Just searched for players I knew so I wouldn't hold up the draft. Being a Phillies fan, all three are Phillies. Stutes pitched well last year after he was called up from the minors.
24.13 Kyle Kendrick, SP, Phi
I expect Kendrick to beat out Blanton and be the Phillies 5th starter. I thought he pitched much better last season.
25.04 Domonic Brown, OF, Phi
Brown has a lot of talent, but has not performed well in the majors. Looks like he will be headed for triple-a, so I already dropped him.
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