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Subject: RIBC AAA 2012 PCL DRAFT RECAP
Posted by: judy
- Dude [7771722] Mon, Mar 19, 2012, 14:57
This thread is for overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say.
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
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| 1 | blue hen
Dude
ID: 710321114
Mon, Mar 19, 2012, 15:07
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Just win, baby. I try to adapt as the draft goes on. And never punt saves.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I admit, I probably didn't need to go Kimbrel-Papelbon when I did, but it seemed late for the closer run to start. I probably could have gotten away with one of the two.
Real happy with where I drafted Miggy, DHudson, Duda, Ben Revere, Dempster, and my duo of MIs (Pennington and Alcides).
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Toral is going to dominate. I'm not surprised.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The clock. Best draft ever.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I love me some Miggy, but there were many decent options later in the first round.
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| 2 | youngroman
ID: 56523304
Mon, Mar 19, 2012, 17:49
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
plan, what a plan? you mean something like:
- pick hitters in round 1 + 2: 1st (A-Gonz), 2nd (Granderson) - check
- focus on hitters early, avoid too many starting pitchers early: I took 3 SP's in rounds 3 to 5 - fail
- wait until the first 10 closers are off the board. they are not worth such a high draft pick: 12th (Betancourt) + 21st (Francisco) - check
- get the 2nd closer as late as possible: 11th round, 21st taken - check
- wait until the first 10 catchers are off the board: Ramos was the 11th - check
- try to get a backup at every hitting position: no backup at 2nd, questionable starter and backup at 3rd - fail
- try not to pick up unproven prospects or players not starting: Wilson Ramos, Aroldis Chapman (starter, setup, closer), Drew Pomeranz (AAA?), Edwin Encarnacion (only part time DH ?), Homer Bailey - fail
- don't pick already injured guys: Allen Craig, who might still be ready on opening day - check
based on that I failed pretty often, but this was more because the most important rule is always: take the best player available that fits your need
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Ryan Raburn in the 15th should do better at a thin 2B position
Allen Craig in the 19th should be way better even if he misses the first month of the season
Edwin Encarnacion was kind of a forced pick because I waited too long for a 3B. I don't know how many AB's he will see this year. he may need an injury of a teammate to start nearly every day. his 1B/3B eligibility is fine though.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I haven't ran any projections for other teams. I simply compared my summary to past RIBC results and my team is doing ok, but does not look great. very conservative projections may be responsible for this.
just for the reference, these are the projections for my whole team (incl. bench players):
AB: 5813 - 8258, avg: 7179
R: 781 - 1199, avg: 1011
RBI: 733 - 1184, avg: 973
SB: 73 - 167, avg: 120
OBP: .328 - .349, avg: .337
SLG: .424 - .472, avg: .445
IP: 958 - 1498, avg: 1278
W: 57 - 111, avg: 82
SV: 22 - 71, avg: 55
K: 856 - 1454, avg: 1179
ERA: 2.97 - 4.01, avg: 3.45
WHIP: 1.12 - 1.33, avg: 1.22
based on that my only weakness is SB. every other category would be top5.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
not much, maybe
- that the closer run occured very late (10th/11th).
- how fast it was at times, especially the last few rounds. I remember that all drafts with the new draftime.com software were quick, so this was not a huge surprise
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
ask me that question in a few weeks, when the first inuries hit my team or a few players don't get the playing time as expected.
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| 3 | Evan
ID: 5720121
Mon, Mar 19, 2012, 19:55
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This is my first time playing in a 16-team league after pretty decent success in 10/12/14 team leagues. I took the same strategies that I used in those leagues and applied it to here. I definitely learned from it.
First of all, I really just wanted to go hitting early. Definitely tried to secure power knowing that it would be harder to get it later in the draft. With my first three picks I went Votto, Beltre, and Bruce. They are not sexy names but I think they fulfill that need. My plan also was to grab middle infielders early, something that I just didn't accomplish until later in the draft (maybe my biggest regret). I usually NEVER go starters early, but always would like to lock up one ace to my roster. With Lester, Price, and Cain available in round 4, I went Lester. In 5, I went Price. I think both of these guys are a little undervalued.
That brings me to the next strategy I employ. Picking the best player available at all times and pretty much disregarding need. FI don't exactly know if I failed at that. I let closers pass me by WAY too quickly and only ended up with one with a closing job, Joe Nathan who may not be such a safe choice. But with my hitting positions, I did just that. I took a flier on Joe Mauer in round 5 and secured a backup Yadier Molina in round 11 because I thought he was the most reliable player available.
Finally, I looked for certain stats regarding players. I mainly focused on HR (bc that usually correlates to RBI) and steals (which usually correlates to Runs) while looking at OBP for all of my players. I definitely tried to look for guys with high OBP and, looking at my team, I think that result was sort of mixed. In regards to pitching, I don't chase wins but rather look at Ks and WHIP. I think I did a fine job there.
As far as my favorite picks? I like my picks from rounds 14-17. I like Jonny Venters in the 14th round. Even if he doesn't close, he brings my team excellent ratios. In the 15th and 16th I got Dayan Viciedo who I think could be a big sleeper here and Denard Span who I think is undervalued after a poor year as the leadoff hitter for the Twins. In the 17th, I picked up Jonathon Niese who could be the ace of the Mets (which I guess isn't saying much).
I think my favorite teams are Saskatoon Wheatfarmers and Foot's Minions. SW has a couple of injury concerns: Utley, Longoria, Davis, Heyward but they all have enormous potential. I also like Tabata, LaHair, and Cain in his OF. He also has an underrated pitching staff without having any big names. FM has a solid lineup with guys with very high OBP. Love Greinke and Bumgarner as his pitching staff anchors.
What surprised me most was nothing. Its my first time doing a draft this large and I didn't know exactly what to expect. You are all pros at this and I think the draft showed the heavy level of competition.
If I could start it over again, I probably would do the same thing. Yes I lack in closers. And yes, I probably don't NEED two catchers. But I like my team and think I have a chance to compete.
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| 4 | mailedfoot
ID: 491522317
Mon, Mar 19, 2012, 22:02
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This is my third year playing in RIBC leagues and my primary plan this year was to have a better hitting team (with a slugging 1B as an anchor) than what I have had in the past. My previous teams have tended to be stronger in pitching and did not have enough hitting to contend for a title. I am happy with Fielder and McCutchen as my first two picks and think they make a good nucleus, but only time will tell.
Like others, my intent was to focus on hitting early and not get caught up in chasing starters and closers too soon. But by the third round I found myself already looking for the most value available, while at the same time trying to fill in the roster positions, address all the categories, and anticipate who would be picked by whom. I guess I have a predisposition toward starters because I took Greinke and Bumgarner within the first six rounds.
My young MI players make me a little nervous, so if I could do anything over, I think I would try to get an established MI sooner. I could say the same thing about C, but I am prepared to work the waiver wire if need be, and you just can't get everything you want in a 16 team league.
As far as my favorite picks, as I sit here tonight, Holland in the 18th is already starting to look good and could pay huge dividends.
There seemed to be a lot of different strategies and player valuations as the draft progressed and it will be interesting to see how the season plays out. Overall, I feel good about my draft. There were a few times I wasn't sure what to do, but that's normal for me and those are the times when I have to tell myself "it's only fantasy baseball".
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| 5 | Great One
ID: 512531316
Mon, Mar 19, 2012, 22:57
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GO's Draft Recap Spectacular
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? I like to build around hitting first and foremost and am not a fan of closers. I think I did the hitting part but got lured into getting more closers than I intended. But I also had closer issues last year in RIBC and I wasn't gonna let that happen again.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over? I think Pedroia/Reyes duo to start off is pretty darn good... I always hate having a guy like Reyes in traditional HR leagues cause he gets hardly any reward for getting doubles/triples so it'll be fun to use him in that respect with hopefully lots of extra base hits in his new park. Love Pedrioa of course. He's my favorite current major leaguer. He's the man.
Likewise, got a good feeling about Billy Butler at the 111 pick and will feel even better if he can get 10 games at 1B. I assume some passed on him cause of the DH thing.
I guess I would re-do the Drew pick cause I was caught off guard the extent of his injury.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
If I could pick another team? Probably Toral cause he drafted a team very similar to how I would normally. And he kept taking guys off the top of my que...
I also like SZ's squad.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Back to closers - I was also surprised that closer run was so late.. I was jumping on them early cause I didn't think they'd be around that late.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently? No, pretty happy with how it went down. I feel like I could use one more top SP... I've put a lot of pressure on Gallardo to be great - however I often trade my whole roster in a season, so it doesn't really matter to me how my draft played out as long as I got some players at a good value regardless of position etc.
Don't bother low balling me for my closers though. I don't plan to move any til post-ASB.
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| 6 | mmikulka
ID: 532511111
Tue, Mar 20, 2012, 01:38
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I had a few main goals/strategies:
-Save the deepest positions for last (SP, 1B, OF) and make sure to get quality players at C, MI, and RP.
I followed through on this in a more extreme way than I originally intended, waiting until the 11th round to pick a 1B and the 17th to pick my 2nd SP. I feel good about my catcher and MI, though I wish I had gotten a 3rd solid closer.
-Make as many of my top picks as "safe" as possible.
I think I accomplished that with my top 4. The next few are more dangerous.
-Get some late round picks with high upside.
Howard+Morneau+Rios+potential closers
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I really like: Mark Reynolds (89), Nick Swisher (136), Jordan Walden (153), Carlos Pena (168), and Ted Lilly (281). Rickie Weeks (72) worries me because of injury potential, and I really wish I had taken Rolen when I was considering him so I didn't end up with Figgins. Also, if I had known Votto was going to make it to pick #7, I would have chosen that slot instead.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
If I had to choose another team to take over, I think I'd go with youngroman, though I like a lot of the players on TD. For the most part, though, it's tough to tell how teams will do at this point.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
That so many other people were willing to adopt strategies as outlandish as mine (No OF until round 14/1st 5 picks are infielders/SP in rounds 3-5/not currently owning anybody eligible at C). It was also faster than I was expecting.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
As mentioned before, I would probably have picked the 7 slot and taken Votto. I'm happy with how it turned out, though, and that would have created a very different strategy for the following rounds.
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| 7 | JL
ID: 34241206
Tue, Mar 20, 2012, 07:41
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1.What was your plan/strategy entering the draft?
I guess it’s some sort of unconscious mental algorithm that weighs best player available with needs of the team + position scarcity/remaining talent + upside + “gut”. I say this every year, but I just feel that a specific strategy forces you to make poor decisions. For example, if I had said “I’m not drafting a SP until Round 12”, then I would have been forced to take some goofball position player that I didn’t want in rounds 7 and 8. At that moment, I felt Josh Johnson and Adam Wainwright were the best options, so I went with it. Perhaps one of these years I’ll take on a strategy that I’ll strictly stick to just to see how it turns out.
2.What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I love Zobrist at 3.16. Beyond that, my team is a steaming pile of garbage whose fate hinges on bounce-back years, oft-injured players not getting injured, and set-up men magically taking over the closer role.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I like Evan’s team, along with mmikulka, and youngroman. This is not based on spreadsheet projections, but instead on a three minute glance over the rosters of the teams.
4.What surprised you most about the draft?
The speed and amount of auto-picks.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I should have done some research.
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| 8 | Seattle Zen
Leader
ID: 055343019
Tue, Mar 20, 2012, 11:07
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
As I discussed during my draft rationales, I prepared for this draft using game theory. Though I have done slow drafts at Rotoguru for some 13 years or so, this is just my third year in RIBC. It is my favorite format, now, so much so that I worry I can't remember anyone's batting average anymore. I thanked my lucky stars that I landed the 5th pick as I coveted Tulo, my season rests on him. Did game theory work, did I execture? Sort of. Never thought about Carlos Santana, kind of risky. I like the age of my players, only David Ortiz is old.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Favorites: James Shields at 92, Brett Myers as the second to last closer at 197, and whoever pans out from my 14-25 rounders :)
Not so much: Cuddyer, obviously. Should I have taken Mark Reynolds over BJ Upton at 69? Time will tell.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
This league is high quality, there is no early favorite because everyone has questions. I do like Taiwan One Tail, though.
Toral has a very recognizable strategy, perhaps even optimal: Target the last guys in tiers for each infield starting slot and take them all in the first few rounds. Take one stud SP to anchor your staff, then wait for SP's and outfield. Yeah, Starlin Castro is arguably the 4th or fifth best shortstop, but is he really the 46th best player overall? In my mind, this strategy caused him to reach with his 3rd, 4th and 5th picks. If Jason Heyward is the next Alex Gordon, he picked him four seasons too soon. We'll see.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Why is everyone so surprised that the draft went at the speed that it should? I was surprised (and disappointed) when Mat Gamel and John Mayberry went so early. I was glad that we behaved like rational experts and waited until late to have our closer run. What surprised me most is Blue Hen's infield. Man, marriage has made you soft. This ain't slowpitch softball, you can't use 9 outfielders.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I'd make my boneheaded move in the twenty third round, not the fourth.
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| 9 | Toral
ID: 010321615
Wed, Mar 21, 2012, 06:04
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Besides my ordinary approach of drafting hitters for value early and only one pitcher early, I wanted to hold off on outfielders as long as possible (something I swear I'll do every year) and take more care over my late round picks. Sometimes in the past I've kind of slacked off and just said "Hey, here's a sleeper, I'll pick him" instead of looking more intently at the universe of availability.
As for executing my plan for outfielders: BOY did I ever! Except for Heyward, my outfield looks like somebody's spring training "B" squad! And I'm happy with my late picks.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
As for do-overs, I made one reach, that for Chase Utley at 4.03. (Not Castro, or Davis. Castro isn't the 46th best pick overall; he's better than that). Utley's injury situation has deteriorated since then, but even then he was a reach. Then, looking at the actual picks made, we can reconstruct my 4th through 7th round picks:
4.03 B. J. Upton
5.14 Kendrick
6.03 Freeman
7.14 Putz
See there wasn't a pick at 4.03 I really liked. Upton's been on a team of mine and disappointed me every year since Paul Martin was Prime Minister, and is no steal at 4.03. Is that a better lineup knowing only what we did then of Utley's health? Maybe.
That Utley pick was the only one I would do over. Ones I liked were 13.14 Jose Tabata; 17.14 LaHair; 18.03 Norris; 20.03 R. A. Dickey.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I liked in no particular order the teams of Draftime handles ywChiou, mailedfoot, and TD. I say that with apologies to them, as no team I've mentioned in this way has ever won an RI?C league I was in IIRC.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
That the early 6th round picks of Valverde, Axford and Storen did not set off a closer run. People yawned.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I'd be more open to one and one only early OF pick, just as I do with SPs.
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| 10 | Goldcoach
ID: 331042822
Wed, Mar 21, 2012, 18:22
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft?
Take the best available players through round 7 and see what where to go from there.
Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Mostly…the draft seemed to move much faster than prior years (and other drafts I’m in this year) and most of my picks came off my queues so that reduced last minute second guessing.
2. What were your favorite picks?
I have three picks that I consider “steals”: J Verlander at 21; R Zimmerman at 44 (how did that happen?) and Alexei Ramirez at 149.
What picks would you do over?
Chris Carpenter is struggling with a bulging disc in his neck. I liked the pick at the time but knowing what I know now I’d take a mulligan on that one.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most?
Sam n Max have put together a solid Starting rotation; and Beaneheads have a strong overall pitching staff. I think JL has the most explosive infield; and if Carl Crawford bounces back Blue Hen has the best outfield (not to mention his bull pen) but I think the best overall blend is TD Dragons.
4. What surprised you the most about the draft?
The SPEED! It seemed like everyone was either available or using queues! Good job guys! Otherwise I was surprised the Cuddyer went as early as he did; I had planed on going for him myself expecting a pretty good year from him. Good pick SZ. As an aside YR kept picking my queue but that wasn’t unexpected as he usually does that to someone.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
The Carpenter Pick. Otherwise I am feeling pretty good about my chances. Some of my guys have to have rebound years (Santana, Lind,Rollins) and others have to meet expectations (Boesch, Pineda, Wieters) but that’s the case for every winning team. I’d like a bit more power but I’ve got good speed so we’ll see; afterall “ That’s why we play the game.”
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| 11 | Seattle Zen
Leader
ID: 055343019
Sun, Apr 01, 2012, 19:59
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Looking at the consoldated RIBC ADP and having done a few other drafts, I've got a slightly different perspective today. I think I should have taken one of the few remaining closers in round 11 rather than Peter Borjous.
What a spring Lorenzo Cain is putting up. No way he lasts to #302 today.
I have Brett Myers on all four of my teams. Am I guaranteeing across the board disappointment? Delmond Young on three squads.
It was only after reading Baseball Prospectus do I learn that Albert Pujols was given entry into the most exclusive of clubs. Welcome to the two-time WS ring winners circle for first baseman, your new comparable player is Kent Hrbek! Got him with the third overall in one league.
I wouldn't mind too terribly if Michael Cuddyer gets a few snaps at third base.
Oddly, James McDonald is available on waivers in the three other leagues I'm in...
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| 12 | judy
Dude
ID: 7771722
Tue, Apr 03, 2012, 18:05
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I had better fill this out before the season begins…
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I made a spreadsheet with the point stats from the top scores from last year as the “goals” for my players. I sought in my batters to get guys that could do more than one good thing for me. My weakness is always SLG and OBP -- I don’t know why so I sort of tried to grab guys that could help there. My absolutely lousy draft spot killed that idea after I took Lee as my #2 and then watched all the great SLG guys get taken.
Looking at my starters, I project excellent totals for runs, and steals, good totals for rbi. OBP and SLG will be high middle compared to 2011.
In pitching, I messed up big time not getting a decent closer -- they flew off the board and I was left with Capps -- ugh. I expect to be dead last in Saves...
For the other P stats though, I have a solid core of kids who should excel in the Wins, and K’s categories and be high average for ERA and WHIP.
I had some guys snatched from me, but am satisfied with what I drafted.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I like my INF: Hosmer, Goldschmidt, Kendrick, Prado, Andrus, S Rodriguez and 4 of my OF too: CarGo, Choo, Jackson, Pagan -- they should get me a bundle of Steals. Not sure about Mayberry...
MY SP are solid, young (like that matters): Lee, Hellickson, Morrow, E Jackson, Holland, Billingsley. Looked for guys on teams who could get Wins and have high K’s, and decent ERA and WHIP.
RP is my disaster area except for the kids who will get holds and lower the ERA and WHIP: Bastardo, O'Flaherty (already dropped for H Rodriguez who might snatch a few Saves in WASH), Brothers, Uehara.
Using GURU’s consolidated draft analysis I only overreached for a few guys:
Suzuki (19.13 mevs 22.05 (consolidated) --, he was my first C,
Prado (7.13 vs 10.03 but I am expecting a bounce back year),
Austin Jackson (10.04 vs 12.11 -- he’s good!),
Mayberry (13.13 vs 16.02 --I am expecting a season like he finished but his spring training has been downright miserable),
Hellickson (8.04 vs 10.05 -- had to have those K’s Wins and nice WHIP),
Edwin Jackson (15.13 vs 21.03 -- I think he will be a pleasant surprise, especially for K’s and Wins),
Capps (11.13 vs 13.03 -- I had to grab a closer before they were gone -- the only decent guy left?),
Bastardo (18.04 vs 21.10 -- I’m from Philly I know what he did last year.)
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
It is too hard to predict that so I don’t peek.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I loved how smoothly it went. Fred has done a fantastic job incorporating our ideas into his program to make it flow smoothly. As commish, I have not had to use the clock the past few years for baseball or football.
I hated the run on closers -- I debated and did not and got nailed by the 23 slots between my picks. I hate closers, but you do need one and really two is better. Maybe some day I will learn that.
I thought blue hen’s initial draft picks were quite curious and odd. I would really like to see his recap thoughts on his strategy. His entry here was way too brief to get inside his thinking...
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Not really. My guys just now need to live up to my expectations for them! And no more injuries please!!
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