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Subject: RIBC AAA Yahoo Draft Recap
Posted by: Khahan
- [373143013] Tue, Mar 20, 2012, 13:27
I'm blatantly ripping off the op from Judy's recap thread:
This thread is for overall comments on the draft. You may use the questions below as a guide, or simply say what you want to say.
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
6. Which picks (outside of your own) do you think are the best value and which picks (your own included) do you think were the biggest reaches?
Feel free to add any other commentary. |
| 1 | Khahan
ID: 373143013
Tue, Mar 20, 2012, 13:58
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
I always like getting a good slugging first baseman and .380/.500slg players with my first few picks. I prefer to grab players to support the % stats and build the counting stats later and I've found the soundest way to execute this strategy is to grab a 1st baseman in R1. I didn't even get to execute that, though I'm not complaining about having CarGo. 1st base is deep, but the top tier is very deep and there is a bigger drop off to the second tier. In the OF the top tier is not as deep, but tier 2 is right there with them. But I was blocked at every point in my opening rounds from what I wanted to execute. Best available just didn't fit my preferred forumla and I felt uncomfortable until late in the draft.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Until he just got hurt I was liking Carlos Quentin in r16. Jim Thome with nearly the last pick of the draft stands out to me. This is a guy who should see 400+PA this year and get 1st base eligibility. .800 to .850 OPS and a last round pick who *should* stay on my roster and get in my line up the whole season. Ervin Santana at pick #211. With a mere 3 more wins last season he would have been ranked in the top 100 most likely. As it is he's projected at 146. With all that said, none of my picks jump out and scream "steal of the draft!!" I think overall I had strong middle to late rounds with good value picks, but no one that just thrills me to no end.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Holt and Kemics both have strong teams but I'd have to say the most well rounded looks to be the team I wanted to draft which is s R. First few rounds he kept taking the player I was targeting. In the mid to late rounds Holt grabbed a few.
My own team is either going to be near the bottom of the barrel or fighting at the top. I doubt there'll be a middle ground for me. So many of my players are question marks with low floors due to age/injury but high ceilings due to well, age/non-injuries.
4. 4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I guess the 'standardization' of the picks. My biggest surprise was how few surprises there were. While we may not have picked exactly in a predicted 1-2-3 order of final rankings for players, there was very little deviation in the first 100 picks. Round 1 was a microcosm of the whole draft. In any grouping of picks, you'd find exactly the players you expect to find. Almost always somebody reaches and leaves 'gems' for later in the round.
5. 5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I would have taken the 12th or 13th pick. I DO like being close to the turn which is why I took 14. But I was figuring SOMEBODY in the top 13 would take Verlander or some other pitcher and a slugger 1st would fall to me. However, having only 2 people after me on the turn and having both of those people load up on MI in the first 2 rounds made predicting my picks later in the draft easier. For example in R12 I finally took neil walker. I really wanted him or an OF/speedster at 11. I really doubted he would go with Da Bomb of GF because of their early picks.
My only temptation would be to draft at a slightly higher slot but then I lose that predictability bonus of the turn.
6. 6. Which picks (outside of your own) do you think are the best value and which picks (your own included) do you think were the biggest reaches?
At a glance I'd have to say the biggest/best value should easily go to Ryan Vogelsong in R20. He delivers great ratios, should have 10-12 W's. His k/9 sucks, but at round 20 getting a guy who contributes well in 3 categories is outstanding. He was the 306th pick overall but finished at #97 overall last season. Helton in R19. This guy is under appreciated in this format.
Biggest reach will probalby end up being Mike Napoli. However, the pick is perfectly in line with his ADP. But I just think his last season % stats were a fluke. He's been my 'go to' catcher for a few years to pick up in round 12+. I think he's going to regress back to that value this year.
Utley in R4, considering his proness to recurring DL trips.
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| 2 | Matt G
ID: 511202821
Tue, Mar 20, 2012, 16:29
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? I had stats I wanted to hit according to what it took to win leagues in the past. I used projected stats from a number of sites for what to expect. I was to a point, it helped keep me even. Instead of drafting all power, I was able to sneak some OBP in there. Helped to make me look at low OBP guys and low slugging guys a little more closer.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over? I loved my 1.10 Justin Upton pick, didn't want an OF really because they are really deep but he's a 5 tool player and will be a leader in all categories. Pick I wish I had back? I like Starlin Castro (2.07) but I think 2nd round was too early, he probably won't have enough power.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)? Sanfordors has a great team. Balance at every position, would be a great team for keepers too.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
There were extended runs on lots of positions, you had to him them or a whole tier was gone. Surprised me a bit for AAA, usually you see more value picks.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently? Couldn't get an earlier pick, really wanted Matt Kemp thought I'd get lucky and he might fall, but I should have taken a lower pick and been able to get 2 players I was targetting at once.
6. Which picks (outside of your own) do you think are the best value and which picks (your own included) do you think were the biggest reaches?
Hosmer in the 5th, he could be an MVP candidate. Ike Davis is better than where he ranks, I was surprised he was still available in the 6th. Mauer is an OBP machine, and he should be able to hit some doubles this year which will help his slg. Utley is a huge reach in r4, I agree with Khahan
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| 3 | JeffG
Dude
ID: 01584348
Tue, Mar 20, 2012, 16:59
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My strategy is basically to look at the numbers that would be needed to gain an '11' in each category based on the RIBC league I was in the prior year (I was in AAA Yahoo last season too). That meant my goals in the RIBC draft are to build a team that will have 910R, 895RBI, 155SB, .340OBP, 430SLG, 86W, 85Sv, 1170K, 3.44ERA, 1.19WHIP. So while I am drafting these are the numbers I am trying to end up with. Other things I try to remember during the draft is that the MI positions get real thin after the middle rounds, so do not neglect those postions where I can. Also try to get 2 closers without reaching to stay competitive . All easier said than done.
How'd I do?. Well, based on averaging three different sets of free projections from the web, just looking at my starters, my offense is right on the ratios and low about 75 R and RBI and 25 SB (which hopefully can be made up a little bit from the bench players on my starters off days). On the pitching side my team is better than the projected ratios but about 50K, 15SV and 10W low but since I am 100 innings short of the league max, I should be able to exceed the K and hopefully I can move closer to the goals on the other counting numbers without hurting the ratios.
As far as my MI goes, I kept pushing it off and grabbed my first SS in Rd9, my 2B in Rd16, and my MI in rd 20 so all three are not going to help the team much but hopefully the big bats I picked up in their place will make up for it.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I guess the top of the draft has to be my favorites. I am really psyched to have the #1 pick and hope Miguel Cabrera at 1.01 lives up to the high expectations. I have never picked my SP2 so high (3rd round) so I'll hope to reap some of the benefits of having two of the first seven SP drafted. I think Marcum in rd12 had an injury that scared the other managers away so if healthy I feel like I got value there. I almost picked Carlos Beltran at the end of Rd6 but went another way and got him at 8.16 (he went from 7.11 to 8.06 in the four other RIBC drafts) so lets see how that plays out.
No regrets or feel I'd want a mulligan on any of my other picks, but I really do not have any great love for any of my round 16-25 choices.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Just doing the eyeball test, the other manager on the other turn, GolfFreak has a nice looking team. I want to see how holt's strategy pays off picking a SS and 2 2B in the first 4 rounds. Gurudan, DaBomb,and MBT also have rosters that I like.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Everything I read in prep for the draft said that closer runs would come later than usual this season, and the real run was for everyones RP2. After all these years in RIBC, nothing happend that different than expected.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Not really. When I first decided I'd take draft position #1 I thought I may have to over-reach for some players because of the number of picks until I am up again, but I stuck to my "best player on the board" approach and I feel like my patience paid off. Even when I did not get a player I would have hoped made it back to me, I feel like I was able to at least get something comparable.
6. Which picks (outside of your own) do you think are the best value and which picks (your own included) do you think were the biggest reaches?
I already spoke about Marcum and Beltran above, but I would not call them steals. I cannot say anyone really stole a player. Kendry Morales (holt 12.13) could be that guy who could definitely far exceed his draft position for all the RIBC managers who took him in rd 11 or 12. He was a stud hitter in this format before his injury. Andy Pettitte (loki) maybe would have went higher than 24 had his status been known when the draft started, but not that much higher Based on the fact he is approaching 40, there is some risk. Not that there is any risk with a round 24 pick.
I don't have any reaches to call out. If I pick a few, it will just come back to haunt me when I am wrong.
I was curious to see where unknown players like Yu Darvish, Jesus Montero, or Yoenis Cespedes would fall being the first RIBC to draft but these could fall into either category as a reach or value pick.
Feel free to add any other commentary.
The improvements with DrafTime this year and last, over it's predecessor which was also a good product, really help keep the draft cruising. The autopick feature and the round based queues are great features.
Congrats to Fred as I see DrafTime/kafenatid has now passed the 100,000 fantasy sports draft picks and counting! I beleive it happend sometime the evening of 3/19 because I picked around the time of the 100K rollover in my in-office draft. It was definitely not from my drafts but I wonder who the picker was.
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| 4 | Khahan
ID: 54138190
Tue, Mar 20, 2012, 18:00
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Kendry Morales (holt 12.13) could be that guy who could definitely
I was *this* close to taking Kendrys Morales at my r11 or r12 pick but felt I had other needs like speed and pitching. I really regret not having him and was all prepped for my 13 pick to be him.
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| 5 | Da Bomb
Donor
ID: 487112814
Wed, Mar 21, 2012, 21:44
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
Besides the usual strategy of taking the best player available early and looking for value later, I think my only goal specific to this format is drafting 3 closers, as late as possible, but if not 3 then definitely 2. Most teams draft 2 closers so getting that 3rd one can mean an extra 10 points in the standings. At 10.02 only a few closers had been drafted but I knew a run would start right after, and I didn't pick again for a while. Still, I couldn’t bring myself to take one relatively early when only a handful had been selected so I went another route and hoped at least 2 would be left for my 11/12 picks. I was fortunate to nab League/Nathan on that turn and then also ended up with Brett Myers in the 13th. All 3 have stable jobs going into the season and that’s what matters to me most.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Continuing with RPs, Crain and Lindstrom as fliers in rounds 22/23 have potential as no closer has been named on their respective teams to my knowledge. Addison Reed won’t get the job right away and Thornton was miserable last year. Jim Johnson is coming back from an injury and if he fails to put up a few clean frames in spring training Lindstrom could open the year saving games.
I like Avila (7.15) and Jhonny Peralta (9.15) as value picks as I saw a significant position dropoff after them. I like Scott Rolen and Chipper Jones as my CI/Util. They might combine for 200 games but when healthy they should produce. If they go down with a big injury I’m fine dropping them for replacement players, which I may have very well ended up with anyway in those rounds.
No picks I would want to do over, yet. I’m a little leery of my 1B situation but hopefully 1 out of LaHair, Carp and LaRoche produces.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
gurudan, holt, loki
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
The late closer run pleasantly surprised me. Although if you know you are going to participate, I guess it doesn’t matter whether you take a closer in the 6th round or the 12th round if most others are doing the same. Presumably this would only affect those who punt saves but everyone here has at least 1 closer.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Nah.
6. Which picks (outside of your own) do you think are the best value and which picks (your own included) do you think were the biggest reaches?
As more news comes out post draft, it looks like Kendrys Morales (12.13), Adam Dunn (14.15) and Grant Balfour (15.03) are going to outperform their draft positions.
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| 6 | filthy
ID: 31148242
Thu, Jun 21, 2012, 05:13
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Better late than not at all. Playing catchup, the theme of my season...
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned? Not fall behind and get autopicked! Worked for the draft, not so much for the season so far.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over? Bautista, Jennings, and Heyward were my favourite picks. Picking 2 arms for my 2/3 picks was a bad idea and hurt me, I would definitely change that. From there everything would have changed. Big, early errors hurt.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?I like coldwaters' draft the most.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?How fast we went. It shouldn't have surprised me, but it did.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?2nd/3rd round queue should have had the star bats ranked among the elite pitchers. Santana/Lawrie/Andrus/Hamilton all were considered but ranked behind Lincecum/Hamels/Felix/Weaver/Price/CC. I ended up reaching on way too many batting gambles to be able to recover. I also should have tried building depth somewhere rather than try to predict holes and attempt to be prepared everywhere.
6. Which picks (outside of your own) do you think are the best value and which picks (your own included) do you think were the biggest reaches?
Best draft time value- Hamilton, Cuddyer, Kendrick, Uggla, ArRamirez, Choo, Butler, Mauer, Wieters, Joyce, Gio, Romero, Beachy, Morrow, Crisp, Rasmus, Sale, Lilly, Wandy, Feliz, Chapman, Volquez.
Biggest reach- I'd think my Carlos Pena in the 8th was a big looking reach that is proving true.
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| 7 | holt
ID: 108501712
Thu, Jun 21, 2012, 15:18
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Here's my recap.
Good picks: Moustakas
OK picks: Wieters, De Aza
OK but not worth draft position: The still winless Cliff Lee, Zobrist
Picks that disgust me because they forgot how to play baseball:
M Young, N Cruz, J Francouer (was utter dog crap til I cut him, then became Stan Musial), A Wainwright, H Bell, JJ Putz, K Morales (platoons and still hits like W Bloomquist, who, incidentally, I was forced to add to my team)
Picks that might be good if they actually played:
Tulowitzki, B Gardner, M Pineda, T Lilly, M Moreland, S Baker, T Hafner, N Reimold, John Jay
Grade: D- (not an F due to it being technically possible to have a worse draft than this)
That being said, you can look at jasonprof's team which is in 1st right now, and some of his picks also had problems. He's made a lot of good moves to counteract the picks that went bad. Once again proving that Germans love David Hasslehoff, and that good drafts are just a small part of the equation in winning fantasy leagues. Hitting the jackpot on some mid-rounders like Kipnis and M Cabrera sure doesn't hurt though.
I guess I should be working right now.
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