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Subject: RIBC AA Yahoo Rationales
Posted by: Khahan
- [54138190] Mon, Mar 11, 2013, 23:04
As we approach R3, lets get ready for rationales. For AA these are optional, but I strongly encourage people to do them. They will be out of order. Just post them here in this thread as you get your chance.
Please do NOT mention any players not yet drafted. Doing so will result in your post being edited and we don't want that, now do we?
R.P Player name team, position
1.1 Rob Deere Mil, OF
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| 1 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Tue, Mar 12, 2013, 11:55
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Lets hold off on rationales until the other leagues are into rounds 2 and 3 at least. The whole reason we wait a few rounds is so we don't mention players not yet drafted. Since all the ribc is kind of one big community and we all look at at each other's threads, I feel its in the spirit of good sportsmanship to just wait a bit.
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| 2 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Fri, Mar 15, 2013, 10:06
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Since so many in AA typically do not do rationales we're going to leave this as free-for-all for those who wish to participate (which is strongly encouraged for all).
I had a number viable choices when I was up. I could have gone for the middle of the order w/ pick 7 or 9. Considering the mess that picks 4-8 are I could have gone more towards the bottom of the list. Ultimately I like being a bit near the end for quicker turn picks and I've ALWAYS been at the bottom so I opted for pick 5 this time. Gets me near the top and keeps me relatively near the turn.
1.5 Robinson Cano 2nd NYY
I had actually hoped to get McCutchen here and was surprised when PD took him. He's often going around pick 7-10. Nice pick pd. But ultimately, its Cano's performance in the wbc that made my decision. He's ready to go and I don't have to worry about the next tier of 2nd basemen (all of which I think are drafted too high for the stats they bring in). Kinsler/Pedroia are going near the end of r2, beginning of r3 in many drafts. This means the people picking after me in r2 and before me in r3 will be spending at least a few picks on players I don't need
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| 3 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Fri, Mar 15, 2013, 10:11
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2.12 Just..no. Hanl..no. David Wright 3rd NYM
I was really hoping Justin Upton would be there, but based on multiple mock drafts I knew that was pipe dream. However, Hanley Ramirez was my first target. Based on the mocks I had done I expected him to drop and had him slated for this pick. Then he was gone. Out of my life forever. :(
Looking over who all was left I saw David Wright, Starlin Castro, Kinsler and Pedroia. I had already addressed 2nd base (though there is always MI). But again, Kinsler and Pedroia are good, but I really feel their projected stats do not justify this high of a pick. Castro was very tempting. But wright projects to a .slg just below 500 and an OBP just shy of .400. Castro's projected OPS is about 100 points lower. Add in double digit steals potential from Mr. Wright and he seemed to be the best rounded candidate.
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| 4 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Fri, Mar 15, 2013, 10:16
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3.5Edwin Encarnacion 1st Tor
Yoenis Cepedes was my man. I had him slated for round 3 since I picked 5th as my draft slot. But then a funny thing happened. A lot more pitchers went than I expected and some hitters were still there. Cepedes projects pretty solid numbers. But Encarnacion (while I'm not sure I still 100% buy into him as more than a 1 year fluke I gotta take some chances) was one of the last to project a .900+ OPS. Add in low double digit steals. I was also considering Paul Goldschmidt here but all around Encarnacion projects better numbers (except sb).
4.12 Ian Desmond, SS Was
In my original rankings I had a small handful of players I felt were 'must haves' for my strat and had them slated in for the rounds I felt I could them. Desmond was one of those guys but I had him slated for R5. Based on all the mocks I've done he's been going around picks 70-75 which is well into our round 5. But then again, Hanley went before I had him estimated and headley who I had as a 'must have' was to be my round 4 pick and he went earlier than mocks showed. So I reached just a smidge for a MI who espn projects to an .800+ OPS with 20+ SB and should give 75-80 runs and rbi's. Quick note - 3 SS were 20/20 players last year. 2 of them had BA under .260. Desmond was over .290. Pretty solid.
5.05 Chris Sale SP ChiSox
My first mis-judge of the draft runs, though I'm not terribly upset. I wanted either a good OF or my first SP in this slot. Looking at who all was there I counted 7 OF that I felt were about the same. Many teams had 1 or 2 OF already and not as many had SP yet. I count a small handful of SP that I felt were in the same tier. As we type this we're 3 picks away from my round 6 picks and 6/7 OF are gone, almost all the SP (including johnny cueto and max scherzer who I felt for sure would go quick) are still there. I should have gone w/ an OF here and picked up SP in R6. But honestly I'm glad to have Mr. Sale's services this year. Misjudged, but not unhappy. High K rate, solid era/whip. Top 3 OF picks for this slot were Bourn, Choo and Gordon. Also considered Halladay but he had just had his bad day and arm soreness.
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| 5 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Fri, Mar 15, 2013, 12:20
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6.12 Carlos Beltran, OF Stl
This pick leaves me with a bad feeling knowing that every single OF I had on tap for this round which made up what I felt was the best picks the last tier went really fast. I was left with Alex Rios and Beltran as the next best options, but also considered going another pitcher here (cueto looks like a mighty good bargain and I can't imagine he gets back to me). Rios is too spotty in his history, but even in his career year last year he only had a .334 OBP. I really think these leagues are won by players who do well in % stats and pile up counting stats secondary. Beltran is older now than last year. I don't think he repeats last year. But he should have a much better obp and similar slg. He's got a good line up around where as Rios doesn't. Still I would have much prefered Austin Jackson, Shin shoo choo or in this format even Alex Gordon. Good news is (i hope) I'm sticking to my rough plan.
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| 6 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Fri, Mar 15, 2013, 14:25
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7.5 Max Scherzer, SP Det
231 K's last year. That's a lot of strike outs. Only teammate JV beat him out last year. I expect another 200k this year, though the era/whip is less than stellar it shouldn't be horrible, either. Great K's, ok era/whip. Also considered Cueto and Matt Moore here. But I really needed to get another pitcher on the board. I generally like my 1st pitcher around round 5 and 3 SP by R10.
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| 7 | Perm Dude
ID: 201027169
Fri, Mar 15, 2013, 15:38
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1.04: Andrew McCutchen: The first pick has to be a multi-tool player who will make an immediate impact. While McCutchen's average could be higher, luckily in this league we don't count average! The best hitter on the board, at this point.
2.13 Jared Weaver: Might have been a might early to take a pitcher, but I didn't want to risk it here. Weaver's K rate knocks him down some spots, but he's solid everywhere else.
3.03 Jacoby Ellsbury: A keeper-level player in the third round? Can't pass him up. He might have dropped (or been forgotten) because of his injury, but he's a solid source of stats across the board, despite other question marks for the Red Sox offense.
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| 8 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Fri, Mar 15, 2013, 16:25
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8.12 Adam LaRoche 1st Was
For the past few years all I've heard was about the great potential of LaRoche and I never listened. Then last year he meets that potential clubbing 33HR, 100RBi's with a .271 BA. Now everybody is talking about a fluke and he should take a small step back. Ok, with pick #124 I'll gladly take a small step back from 100Rbi's. His OBP and Slg are expected to be in the same neighborhood as last year (.343/.510). I'm putting him around a .340/.490 line. Again, for pick 124 I think thats pretty solid. Again, based on mocks I had him targeted in the 10th. But I didn't think he would drop and those mocks didn't do 1st/3rd/CI and util, so guys like this probably don't slip like they do in more traditional formats.
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| 9 | Khahan
ID: 54138190
Sat, Mar 16, 2013, 09:46
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9.05 Ben Revere, OF Phi
He's slated on some prediction sites for an obp in the low .300s and a slg not much higher. I think he'll do a bit better than that in both, mid .340's obp and .380s slg. That slg will hurt. But he'll more than make up for it if he delivers another 40+SB campaign. And if the rest of the phillies are healthy he could see a 100 run year. This is where it starts to get tough. I felt like the little boy using him thumb to plug the hole in the dyke. Then another hole, and another and another. But the quality of available players starts to take a sharp decline around here. So do I plug OF, SP, RP, CI/MI? Was also considering H Kendrick, Chris Davis, David Freese, Nelson Cruz or a number of closers. Basically my whole queue disappeared fast. In the end I grabbed a speed specialist.
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| 10 | Khahan
ID: 54138190
Sat, Mar 16, 2013, 09:48
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10.12 Glen Perkins, Min Closer
Time for a closer. Speed specialist last round. Saves specialist this round. He had a very good K/9 rate last year averaging more than 1k per inning. Should probably see some regression in ERA/WHIP, but *some* progression from 2.56/1.04 still leaves a lot of good room for him to be in.
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| 11 | chris
ID: 229161722
Sat, Mar 16, 2013, 15:48
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14.02 Kelly Johnson, TB 2B
a bit of a reach, but i realized about round 9 that waiting on 2B left me with VERY few palatable options
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| 12 | taxman
ID: 122169
Sun, Mar 17, 2013, 16:16
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1.09, Joey Votto, 1st CIN I hope I lucked out here. I had him at #3 (behind Cabrera and Braun), but I think some may have been spooked by his injuries last year. The master of swing is a lock for excellent OBP and SLG % , but zilch for SB. Ortiz will get more. New in 2013 is having plate setter Choo at top of batting order thus Votto RBI's s/b up.
2.08, Jose Reyes, SS,TORI was surprised Tulowitski lasted until 2.02 (pick #18) and started thinking he might drop to me. Really stupid thought. But I liked the idea of grabbing a stud MI and found what I wanted. The mock ADP listed Reyes to be picked 30th or later. I don't see it. Few middle infielders can provide SLG%, but, Reyes can, and if he doesn't, he won't hurt the category.. He is a productive if not elite MI. Contributing 40 + SB and 100+ Runs to go with a .350 OBP. Not much help with RBIs. Today, I like this pick a lot.
3.09 Matt Cain, SP, SF Simply was the best SP left on the board. Provides elite stats for everything but K's which will turn out to be a major problem for me.
4.08 Craig Kimble, RP, ATL I know, it's a stupid time to be taking a closer. But Kimble clearly is the healthiest (read that as youngest anyway) elite closer for a ATL, a team with enough bats to be even or ahead in majority of games. Thus Kimble should get 50 or more save chances, converting 95%. The extra bene is the K's which will exceed your average 5th SP not to mention his minuscule ERA and WHIP. What's not to like.
5.09 Aaron Hill, 2b, ARZ Wanted either Halladay or Chris Sale at this pick, #77 ( but Khahan at 69 and Cliff (Goat Locker)) erased that line of thinking. Feeling the drop off in P was too steep, I went back to the ever problematic MI and grabbed Hill. Hill had muddled about for a few years after blowing the doors off in Toronto, but rebounded last year to post his best ever all around numbers, providing help in all categories (93/85/14/.357/.522). At 31 he is capable of a repeat performance or close to it as long as he stays injury free. I will be happy if he's within 90% of last years stats. A real possibility, hitting 5th in good hitting ARZ line up.
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| 13 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Mon, Mar 18, 2013, 05:11
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Love the Seattle Zen rationales, gotta jack his style a little here....
Top pick out of all spots, and I chose 12th?
My initial thought when receiving top selection, was how sweet it would be to own Mike Trout this year. Seems pretty hard to imagine him going through a sophomore slump, whether that's a myth or not. But I've been sent down to AA to work on my drafting, so I figure I should look into who I might be choosing for my 2nd/3rd picks at 32/33.
My personal list had about 10-15 excellent picks I'd be happy with as anchors, and another 10 players that I consider borderline anchors. It felt a little risky going with the top pick and hoping one of my top 20-25 slipped to pick 32. Ended up deciding 10-14 would be my range, and ultimately settled on the 12th draft spot. (Roberto Alomar's number can't fail me right!??!) Once that was settled, it was time to make my 21 man queue while everyone else decided their spots.
Trout has that unknown/unlimited ceiling and ranked 1st for me. Kemp/Cargo/McCutchen could also be 5 category beasts and I rank them 6th/5th/4th. Cabrera/Braun/Cano/Pujols/Fielder are models of consistent greatness that I rank at 2nd/7th/22nd/9th/8th. **I don't like Cano but I ranked him anyway for some OCD reason?** Votto/Tulowitzki/Longoria/Bautista should be monsters if recovered and are the names I really hope to land. I rank them 3rd/11th/12th/10th. Verlander/Strasburg stand out to me among the arms and made me think I should've went with 14th pick instead, but I'm not a fan of starting with an arm so they get ranked outside my 1st round pick as my 13th/14th ranked guys.
Stanton almost made it in my top tier but I don't think he'll see any pitches to hit. He still ranks 16th on my list. Kershaw/Price/Felix slide in at 15th/17th/18th. Then Justin Upton at 19th, and a tough call between Posey and Harper for my 20th** spot and a real shot at being one of my top two picks. Catcher's a tough spot so I settled on Harper. (Gambling on him was one of my few draft highlights last year!) Beyond this are guys that I'm not comfortable with as cornerstones. Posey, Wright, Reyes, Hamilton, Holliday were the closest to getting into that top 21 tier.
The first 3 picks weren't very surprising, then McCutchen went, and I still didn't see any need to adjust my queue before the clock started. Just went to bed and let the queue do it's thing. Hoped to see that I ended up with Votto, Bautista or Tulo and was very surprised, a little letdown, yet a little pumped to see that I landed Prince Fielder,1B,1.12. Tigers offense should be killer again, and Fielder is born to hit baseballs. A season of 90/110/-/.400/.525 is my prediction for him, but that might be a tad conservative now that he'll be fully AL adjusted. Bonus slight bargain value for the player that went 8th,10th,11th,11th in the other leagues!
3 of my potential first rounders survived, and Jose Bautista,OF,2.05 was still there when it came back to me, which was about as perfect as I could've dreamed it up. Getting the guy who I think will win MVP with a 120/120/10/.400/.600 season, and who my heart wanted with that first pick has me feeling pretty pumped. (With a dash of paranoia regarding my rankings and Jays homerism for the year...) Getting Bautista at 21st compared to 10th,14th,20th,22nd in other drafts seems like another mild steal. All these mild steals are very comforting as a recovering reachaholic! I'm obviously not concerned about the injury recovery, but that is blind optimism. A wrist injury is scary and his swing makes relapse a fair possibility, but I've seen the upside and it's worth the chance.
Now time to refill that queue, only 3 names left on it. I'm 14 & 21 picks away as the draft dies for the night, so another 21 man queue is in the cards...
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| 14 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Mon, Mar 18, 2013, 06:38
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First two rounds in hindsight
(Imagining no butterfly effect had I chosen a different draft spot...)
-Had I decided to go 1st, I'd have picked Mike Trout and would have chosen Cole Hamels along with him.
-Had I went with second and the coin-flip between whoever was left of Trout & Cabrera, I could've chosen Felix with whoever I ended up with. So I could have had Cabrera rather than Fielder as well as one of my cornerstone types if I chose this path. To say that's how it would have happened is naive, but it makes me regret not taking this gamble now that hindsight is available.
-Had I went with the 9th/24th spot and a better shot at Votto, I would've lucked out with Votto, and would've paired him with Price. Deep down I wanted Bautista more and I didn't think Votto would slip to 9th, which was as low as I was willing to drop my second pick to.
-Had I went with a late pick so I could increase my chances of getting two of my fave players in Bautista and Tulo, I think it would have worked out in spot 15 or 16 but I didn't think it would be possible at the time, and I did favor my top 11 (plus Cano) enough to take no chances with my first pick.
-All these considerations were taken, which should help you guys understand why I took so long to choose!
-Hoping that my Fielder/Bautista combo turns out better than the spot my heart was leaning to, and the spot that logic dictated I should have chosen.
-My fave opposition top duos: Miggy/Felix, CarGo/Price, Votto/Reyes, Pujols/Harper, Kershaw/Strasburg, Posey/Tulo.
-My fave round 1 picks: Votto, Longoria, CarGo, Kemp, Trout, Miggy.
-My fave round 2 picks: Felix, Price, Harper, Tulo, Strasburg, Wright.
**(I finished 15th in AAA last year and it took all my effort, so don't be too jealous if I didn't mention your guys or too proud if I did mention your guys! lol)
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| 15 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Mon, Mar 18, 2013, 09:36
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11.05 Grant Balfour, C-loser Oak
Might as well get 2 of them nailed here and forget about them for a while. Balfour comes in with a solid era/whip and a nice K/9. Of course if I had known there would still be closers available in rounds 15-17, I would have filled other holes and grabbed those guys in another round or 2. Closer runs are just difficult to judge. We never actually had one in this league. I thought we would have one in round 11-13 or so the way teams were shaping up. Still, not upset I got the 2 that I did.
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| 17 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Mon, Mar 18, 2013, 09:44
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12.02 Andre Ethier OF LA Dod
My pitching is falling to the wayside and I really need to shore it up. Ethier, when healthy has never performed this poorly (pick 188) and I'm surprised he's still here. He just seems like too good of a value to pass up. Went with best option available rather than roster needs (though a 3rd OF IS a roster need). He has a good chance to be a top 100 player but more than likely top 120 or so beating his draft slot by a good 60 positions. ESPN projections have him coming in at a .364 obp, .483 slg with 70+ runs and 80+ rbis. At pick 188? There's guys taken 5 rounds earlier projecting out about the same.
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| 18 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Mon, Mar 18, 2013, 09:47
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13.05 Ryan Vogelson SP SFran
Not much to this pick. Needed a pitcher and he's a good one. Though I'd have preferred to have a Vogelsong-type pitcher as my 4th or even 5th SP I just didn't draft that way. But like Ethier the round before, this pick is around 190 and I fully expect him to outperform that draft position by quite a bit.
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| 19 | MattG
ID: 221382117
Mon, Mar 18, 2013, 10:01
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With having the #2 pick of picks I was hoping that filthy would pick a middle rounder so that I could get the #1 pick. Had he picked #1 I would have picked middle round so that I could avoid long delays between picks, without the "reward" of having the #1 pick.
Filthy picked 12. From here my decision was easy, do I want the best all around player in the game? Yes, yes I do.
1.01 Mike Trout OF LAA
For me getting Trout was a blessing, I never have a high pick in these drafts and usually end up screwing up my pick anyhow. The way I see it grabbing Trout here means I don't have to compensate on any categories later in the draft, I'm starting with a 5 category guy right off the bat. If I had gone with Cabrera, I'd have to compensate for Steals later on. etc.
I could have also gone with Braun, but I think he's more of an injury and PED risk.
My strategy for this draft has changed dramatically from my last two drafts. Last year I targeted guys with specific categories in mind, each round was a specific category according to who remained, etc. I looked at the top teams from each of the past RIBC season and calculated the average tallies for each of the 5 cats in pitching and batting.
I then used these averages as a baseline for my team, as my expected average stats got closer and closer to these baselines the better and better my team would be. This did't work out so well. I ended up with a bunch of 2 category guys that ended up dragging other categories down more so than the rest of my team would prop them up.
This year I've assigned points to ranges, I'm still aiming for average stats, however I'm doing this more loosely. If a guy is a leader in a category he gets 2 points, if he is average he gets a 1, non factor gets a 0. If he is below average -1 and if he is a drag on a category -2.
I honestly have no idea how many points each category should have to be considered a strength. With 12 starting batters I figured if I can get 6 points per category that should be great, however if I get 4 I should be about average.
For example my above Pick with Trout would be:
R 2 RBI 1 SB 2 OBP 2 SLG 2
I'll try to post my ranks for each category with each pick.
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| 20 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Mon, Mar 18, 2013, 14:58
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14.12 Juan Pierre, OF Mia
Juan surprised everybody last year in Philadelphia batting over .300 and stealing 30+ bases. I actually don't see why he can't do it again. He'll hurt the slg% in a big way though. This was about stats more than roster need (as I still REALLY needed pitching). If Pierre and Revere both steal up to their potential and I get double low to mid teens from Wright, desmond and Beltran I'll be right in the mix for 16 points in SB. And the ding in slg% - Cano, Wright, Desmond, Beltran, Ethier, Laroche can and should help in that department.
Using Matt G's formula, I see pierre: sb+2 ob%+0 runs+2, rbi-1, slg-2. His OBP surprised me when I looked it up last year at .351.
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| 21 | MattG
ID: 221382117
Mon, Mar 18, 2013, 15:05
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2.16 Starlin Castro SS CHC
3.01 Ian Kinsler 2B Tex
As rounds 1 and 2 shook out before my eyes I messaged a friend of mine who likes to live vicariously through my drafts as I do his. I told him that if things go my way I could end up getting 2 more 5 CAT guys with my next two picks. He said that's great, but why do I want more OFs this early. I told him it was Castro, and my next pick Kinsler and he said that would be amazing. Sure enough they both ended up available and I took them both. I felt other than getting the best available player in round 1, that I should collect players from positions that lack depth, therefore making my selection at these positions more valuable. I've always liked Castro, and at his age he should continue to improve. As for Kinsler, I believe I could have gotten a little better stat wise but to get my MI set this early and allow me to focus elsewhere seemed like a deal to me.
Here is how I rated these guys.
Castro: R 2 RBI 1 SB 2 OBP 1 SLG 2
Kinsler: R 2 RBI 1 SB 2 OBP 2 SLG 2
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| 22 | MattG
ID: 221382117
Mon, Mar 18, 2013, 15:14
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4.16 Adam Wainwright SP STL
5.01 James Shields SP KC
At this point I need a pitcher, they are flying off the board and if I don't get an ace here, I probably never will. Also at this point I realized that aiming for 6 points per category isn't going to work and that I need to adjust my thinking. I should probably be aiming for 8 points per to consider myself a contender to be in the top 1/4 of the league in that CAT. Obviously my rankings are a work in progress.
I've been wary of Wainwright but he seems to be all set to go this year and was the best SP available imo. As for Shields, I've always liked him, he's a solid SP who just eats innings and gets W's. Being in KC could help his ERA, but hurt his W's. As long as there isn't too big of a trade off, I imagine I could live this this. Here is how I have them ranked(note I do not penalize SPs for not getting saves.
Wainwright: W 2 K 1 S 0 ERA 2 WHIP 2
Shields: W 2 K 2 S 0 ERA 1 WHIP 2
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| 23 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Wed, Mar 20, 2013, 02:59
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For my 3rd and 4th picks, I tried to set my queue to give me a pitcher and a bat. Most of the bats I was eyeing had been picked since my last pick so I decided to go pitcher heavy with a 12man queue for my first pick and update again before work in the morning.
Felix, Hamels, Bumgarner, Cain, Gio, Lee, Greinke, Sale, Halladay, Edwin, Mauer, Lawrie was the rough order for 12 picks away at pick 44.
When checking before work, I'd lost 3 guys and was only 7 picks away now. Decided not to update anything, thinking I might check in during work at some point, but didn't end up doing that. Got home to see I didn't hold up the draft, which was good, but I kinda hoped to get a batter with that 4th round pick. Falling back into the old, bad, lazy drafting habits... uh-oh!
Super stoked to get Madison Bumgarner,SP,3.12 to anchor my staff. Still young plus he's lefthanded with excellent control, perfect recipe. I could see 15-20 wins while beating his career 3.20/1.20 averages. I'm predicting a 18/0/200/3.00/1.15 season for my ace.
As for Zack Greinke,SP,4.05, I really like his chances this season with the Dodgers. The early injury reports aren't confidence ispiring, but I am optimistic that he'll play the majority of the season. Not sure that I would have went with a bat, had I checked in, since Halladay and Sale were still around. It would have come down to my past favourite player in Halladay versus my future favourite player in Lawrie, I am certain. Perhaps not checking saved me from myself, but I'm fine with adding another potential ace to my staff. I don't see him having any higher injury risk than most pitchers, despite the early reports, it's the nature of the position (even the mighty robot known as Roy Halladay gets hurt sometimes!). Somewhere between 12-18 wins for Greinke while matching a career 3.75/1.25 would be a great number two. I'll predict a Dodger debut of 17/0/200/3.50/1.20 for Zack Greinke.
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| 24 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Wed, Mar 20, 2013, 03:08
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Forgot I wanted to compare my draft values, to see if my reaching got too out of control....
Bumgarner 44th vs 61st,51st,59th,51st in the other leagues, definite reach, makes sense though, I really wanted him.
Greinke 53rd vs 87th,63rd,88th,71st in the other leagues, another reach, bigger this time. Drafting starting pitching too early, and reaching to boot, not a good start to my pitching staff..
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| 25 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Wed, Mar 20, 2013, 03:19
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And my favourite picks of round 3&4...
Round 3: Hamels, Cain, Edwin, Heyward, Zimmerman, Phillips
Round 4: Gio, Mauer, Lawrie, Zobrist, Craig, Medlen
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| 26 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Wed, Mar 20, 2013, 04:14
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Once I'd digested my 3rd and 4th round picks, I had plenty of time to fill up a queue for my next two rounds. We seemed to be pretty solid with 2 rounds a day, so I thankfully didn't have to overdo it with a queue.
14 & 23 picks away when I started filling, and three picks happened before bed, so I settled on a top 11/20 list. The top 11 would be P/C/MI heavy.
Prado, Halladay, Sale, Dickey, Andrus, Santana, Wieters, Sandoval, Aramis, Utley, Hill, Asdrubal, Kipnis, Victor, Choo, Jennings, Freeman, Hosmer, Chapman, Moore was my rough order. It changed a lot, hard to recall what I settled on.
Halladay and Sale were still around and tempting, but they got bumped by Prado as soon as Zobrist was drafted ahead of my radar. Wanted an MI flex guy so I decided to target Martin Prado,SS,5.12 and I'm really glad he made it to me. Batters seem to do well in Arizona, and the DBacks seem to be very high on Prado. Hard to not like his situation for the year. And that flexibility has me daydreaming of (undrafted/retired?/cut?/M's bench?) in his heyday! Prado will probably settle in as my shortstop, but the flexibility is nice. I'm predicting a desert debut of 85/65/15/.350/.440 for my starting shortstop. He's no Tulo, but I'll survive!
I'm finding it really hard to be the pace setting draft with Prado as 76th versus 82nd,93rd,79th,111th in the other drafts. Really like this pick though. Determined to avoid any percentage leeches on my roster this year, and beefing up MI will be a good start.
Super fast drafting day didn't leave me any time to adjust for the turnaround. Dickey was the top name left, and it wouldn't have changed had I checked. There were 4-5 pitchers left that I was willing to add as a third possible ace, and R.A.Dickey,SP,6.05 was one of them. Last year's NL Cy Young, moving to the AL East. No worry to me. He was pitching hurt last year for stretches, and apparently cleaned that injury up in the offseason. You can pitch him against the Dominican WBC squad when he's healthy, and they're not gonna hit him. Plus the AL East was more than manageable for Tim Wakefield, so Dickey thriving is more than possible. He could go 10-20 wins, and the strikeouts may or may not return again this year, as well as the numbers in general, but I'm predicting Dickey will be on and healthy all season and put up a 17/0/200/3.25/1.15 season in his Blue Jay debut. (Three straight picks are guys on new teams, fancy that!)
I get Dickey at 85th versus 67th,62nd,65th,39th. Major steal this time, making up for the last couple reaches a little!
My fave picks of round 5: Sale, Halladay, Andrus, Santana, Wieters, Aramis
My fave picks of round 6: Sandoval, Choo, Utley, Asdrubal, Victor, Seager
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| 27 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Wed, Mar 20, 2013, 05:02
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I got home four picks away, with only Matt Moore,SP,7.12 remaining on my queue. While looking over the daily picks and seeing how my team stood and what remaining players were left, Matt Moore was selected for me. Didn't even get a chance to change my mind! Rafael Soriano is the only potential player that might've bumped Moore, but I was pretty set on avoiding closers when possible for this draft, so this helped me stay strong. Moore is another young lefty, and I'd hope he can at least match last year, but I'm optimistic he can show growth while becoming yet another reason to fear the Rays again this year. I predict a 15/0/200/3.75/1.30 for Moore this season.
Moore at 108th versus 95th,87th,127th,92nd seems like pretty fair value for me.
My fave picks of the 7th round: Hosmer, Chapman, Soriano, Cueto, Scherzer, Lincecum.
After seeing Moore was picked, I only had to fill a nine player queue to get to my pick before the long turnaround. All bats this time now that I'm up to 4 arms. Too bad I didn't realize the autopick turned off when my queue emptied! Nearly timed out for my round 8 pick.
Second base/MI was the big target with this queue. Walker, Kendrick, Aybar, Scutaro, Jeter, Howard, Morneau, SPerez, Rosario was the rough queue I went with.
I had Neil Walker,2B,8.05 ranked highest because of my previously mentioned goal of avoiding players that drain my averages. Best upside of remaining MI in my view. Walker is still young enough to grow as a player, and had a decent year even without a full season last year. A Pirate with a link to Roberto Clemente is always good for the team mojo as well. He's got a key spot in the lineup with lots of upside of his own, I'm predicting a 80/90/10/.350/.450 breakout season for Neil Walker.
Walker 117th versus 132nd,124th,157th,113th is a bit of a reach, but I liked him best at a thinning MI spot.
My fave picks of round 8: Howard, Morrow, Trumbo, Napoli, Laroche, Rivera
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| 28 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Wed, Mar 20, 2013, 11:39
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Now I'm excited. I made Filthy's Favorites for rounds 3, 5, 7, 8. That's half of his graded rounds so far. Its nice to know my thinking isn't way out in left field.
I also like his assessment in relation to the other drafts. Never thought of that but I'm a bit curious myself.
Cano: 5, 4, 3, 4, 4
Wright: 28, 24, 23, 23, 15
Encarnacion: 37, 29, 32, 32, 37
Desmond: 60, 60, 64, 71, 49
Sale: 69, 65, 70, 90, 68 (somebody in ribc got great value)
Beltran: 92, 112, 86, 108, 112 (biggest reach to date for me)
Scherzer: 101, 84, 77, 81, 72 (possibly best value so far for me)
LaRoche: 124, 122, 129, 110, 136 (first guy I thought I was really reaching for..guess not)
Revere: 133, (not drafted in any other format and most are well into the 200's..wtf was I thinking?)
Anyway, time for the rationales:
15.05 Matt Carpenter StL Everywhere
He will be my MI once he gets qualified (shouldn't take long, he's won the starting 2nd base job). Last year in 300AB he was .365/.463. I expect about the same from him this year with a line up that can pile up 70-80 runs/rbi's. I see him actually in a tier above where I drafted him for MI and while I wanted a SP (had 4 in my queue, Anderson, Cahill, Miley, Ogando, none of which made it back to me) I really needed that MI slot filled and there was not much quality left. Gyorko was there to consider as well, but I went w/ the guy who had 300 AB instead.
16.12 Marco Estrada 16.12 SP Mil
Possible steal of the draft? With Estrada its possible. If not, he probably works out right to about his draft position or gets demoted. Good K rate, solid era/whip expected. 12-15 wins. Was surprised he was here given what I'm reading about him this spring training. Think I like him a tick behind Anderson but actually ahead of Miley, Cahill or Ogando.
17.05 Dominic Brown, OF Phi
Timing was just right for my pick. He may have finally become the hitter everybody thought he could be. I expect an OPS in the low .800s. 85 or so runs or rbi's depending on his spot and a handful of steals. Another possible steal of the draft. Or he could become what he was last year and get dropped before April is over. Not sure which is more likely.
18.12 Andrew Bailey RP Bos
Possible additional source of saves, especially since I'm not sure Hanrahan keeps his spot a full season. Nagging suspicion
19.05 AJ Ellis C LAD
Filling out my last position. .373 OBP .414 SLG last season in 400+ AB's. Not much elsewhere. Really wanted the other AJ, but pierzinski went a few rounds ago while I was plugging other holes.
20.12 Logan Forsythe 3rd/2nd SDG
He has 2nd base eligibility and will be starting at 3rd while Headley is out w/ his thumb injury. Backup MI and fill in until Carpenter gains 2nd base eligibility.
21.05 Vance Worley SP Min
My pitching is weak. I'm not actually sure Worley will do anything to help that.
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| 29 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Wed, Mar 20, 2013, 12:53
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22.12 Al Albuquerque RP Det
I just wanted to see if I could spell his name w/out looking (I couldn't). Aside from that, this is pure speculation. Detroit still has not settled on a closer and Al-Al is making the best case with a sub-2.00 era on the spring and reportedly good placement. If I'm wrong I lose a r22 pick. If I'm right, somebody spent a round 14 or so pick on Rondon that they lost. Of course there is also Phil Coke in the mix who went 2 picks after Big Al.
23.06 Jordany Valdespin OF NYM
Again, pure speculation. He seems to have earned a starting spot for whatever that means in the Mets OF. I can't see this guy getting much play time, especially if D Brown hits the regular season like he has in spring.
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| 30 | chris
ID: 229161722
Thu, Mar 21, 2013, 10:24
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love the brian roberts pick. forgot i was targeting him for MI spot and drafter cozart instead
valdespin could very likely get reps at OF and 2B (with murphy and backup IF turner potentially starting the season on the dl). he has loads of talent, it's always been about attitude holding him back (and plate discipline, which he seems to have improved on). love this pick as well
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| 31 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Thu, Mar 21, 2013, 13:30
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24.12 Jason Castro C Hou
I'm always so far under 162 games played at catcher. I thought this year I'd try 2 and see if I can rotate them for more games from that position.
As for Castro himself - young guy, decent peripherals last year and having a great spring. If he slumps day 1 of the season he won't be in my starting line up anyway and is was pick #380.
25.05 Chris Parmalee OF/1st Min
Parmalee, parmesan cheese. I'm sitting here eating an italian sub thinking how much I'd love to have some parmesan cheese on it and it make me think of Parmalee who was in my pick for this round. Starting RF for the Twins. It was a tough choice between him and my ailing 91 yr old grandmother on who would stay on my roster longer. My vote would go to my grandmother. I'd have to be 1 heartless bas...d to cut my own grandmother from a fake baseball team.
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| 32 | holt
ID: 1414114
Thu, Mar 21, 2013, 19:22
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khahan - it's actually Alburquerque, for some reason.
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| 33 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Fri, Apr 05, 2013, 01:21
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Howard Kendrick, MI, 9.12 was the backup option for my previous round pick and still survived my queue, as did 6 of the other 7 names I had been eyeing. Ryan Howard was the only name picked. I hadn't even updated my queue to react to the draft, but Neil Walker is no sure thing, so it is comforting to have another similar level player as a backup, or ideally as my MI. I could see Kendrick having a 70/70/15/.330/.430 season. Pretty good MI, generally plays most of the season too.
I drafted Kendrick 140 versus an average of 152. Ahead of pace but nearly on par. First 8 rounds I got Fielder and Dickey latest of all drafts, while drafting Bumgarner, Greinke, Prado earliest of all drafts. Overall, my reaching tendencies are being held relatively in check so far (in retrospect).
My fave picks of round 9: Aybar, JJohnson, Cruz, Pence, Samardzija, Freese.
Only had to make a 6 name queue for round 10 by the time I got home, and I still had Scutaro, Jeter, Morneau, SPerez, Rosario leftover. Catchers weren't really getting drafted, and CI was looking really thin. I also realized I could still really use more OF depth as well. Morneau, Cuddyer, Fowler, Reddick, Sperez, Rosario was the new queue. Woke up to a long wait and Justin Morneau, CI, 10.05 to hopefully satisfy my Canadian first baseman craving this year by being a poor man's Votto. He looked pretty healthy at the WBC and had a pretty decent season last year and is another season healthier. I predict a 80/100/1/.340/.475 line for Justin Morneau.
I was the first person of all drafts to go for him, and I reached by a few rounds. Relapsing to reachaholic ways as I start to fill out the roster? Perhaps, but our CI market is getting super thin, and I still needed 2. Third base was already pretty thin, and Morneau was standing out to me at CI for a couple rounds already. When you think you have a gem, you just don't risk it in RIBC, especially when your draft is setting the pace. I wish I was related to Morneau, but no I'm not, just a big fan. My biggest hope is he gets traded to the Jays midseason and helps them get a playoff game hahaha.
My fave picks of round 10: SPerez, Scutaro, Belt, Fowler, Niese, Romo
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| 34 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Fri, Apr 05, 2013, 02:07
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We were 18 picks away but I didn't wanna hold things up if we got going quickly. Added some names to the queue such as: CCrisp, MMontero, MMinor, MMorse, JWerth, MMachado, Ichiro, EFrieri, RBetancourt, CNelson, JLucroy, AJPierzynski, BAnderson, KJansen. Still had Cuddyer, Reddick, SPerez, Rosario left from the last queue as well. Enough to get me to my pick in the worst scenario, or more likely to last me a few rounds.
Michael Cuddyer, OF, 11.12 landed to me which I love cause he could backup CI and should start in Coors. A full, healthy season from him could be huge. Even matching last year's down year wouldn't be horrible, but I don't think he's done yet. I'm looking for a 70/85/10/.340/.460 season from Cuddyer this year.
I was the first of all drafts to pick Cuddyer as well, not as big of a reach as Morneau, but yet another reach. (5 of my 11 picks so far have been the biggest reach of all drafts!!)
My fave picks of round 11: Rosario, Reddick, Betancourt, Harvey, Jeter, Crawford
My queue lasted to round 12, which was good because I was still at work. Managed to end up with Coco Crisp, OF, 12.05 to be my big base stealing threat. There are a couple guys so far that will get some steals, but no threats yet. Crisp always seems to find his way onto my team from the junk heap, which isn't a good sign for drafting the guy, but I'll take my chances that I'm lucky about sensing when he's gonna do well. He has done nothing but great things during his time on my teams during the last 2 seasons. (If only more things could have gone my way during that time!...) If he can come anywhere near his second half of last year, I will be thrilled, but I'm expecting a full(er) season than usual for some strange reason. Something more along the lines of 80/60/50/.320/.400 this year for Coco.
I got him slightly ahead of pace, 181 vs 190 avg. Broke the reaching streak though.
My fave picks of round 12: Morse, Minor, Montero, Reed, Johnson, Gardner
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| 35 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Fri, Apr 05, 2013, 02:57
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8 & 17 picks away by the time I was ready to sleep. Got home after my picks, and in time to see a couple more picks happen while resetting my queue.
Still needed 3B, C, another OF, Util, probably 2 more SP, start to consider the relievers that have started to slip through.
JWerth, EFrieri, MMachado, JLucroy, KYoukilis, MYoung, Ichiro, AJPierzynski, BAnderson, CNelson, TPlouffe, MCarpenter, EBonifacio, JMontero, KJansen, SSantos, CCarter was roughly what I settled on. Really wished I looked closer into Jayson Werth, OF, 13.12 last time around, as I didn't think he'd survive this time. I always like to get a link to certain team's offenses, and the Nationals is one of those scary looking offenses this year. Hoping to see Werth be a threat in the middle of that scary lineup. To double last season would be sweet, and seems attainable. I predict Werth to hit 80/60/20/.370/.450 this season.
Little bit of a steal with this pick compared to other drafts.
My fave picks of round 13: Machado, Youkilis, Morales, Perez, Janssen, Brantley.
As third base keeps thinning out, I keep thinking I will end up with the entire Rockies third base situation, but I just keep letting it pass by. And now that catchers are being picked, the same thing might happen, but for now, it feels deep enough to wait on catcher, and pillaged enough to wait on third base. Ernesto Frieri, RP, 14.05 sticks out like a sore thumb to me, and might even allow me to compete in saves if I can luck into another early closer. No point trying to predict what happens when Madson returns, Frieri has the job right now, and he definitely has the skills. A fast start, and he could end up closing elsewhere midseason. In real life, or this league! Without lucking into something early, I could see Frieri as trade bait, provided he retains value. I predict he'll stick around the Angels and help Madson ease back into the role though. A season of 3/15/80/2.50/1.10 is what I'm predicting.
Got the best value on Frieri out of all drafts by a couple rounds! By late April, I could be in OK position in the closer chase, or completely out of it, but I thought I'd be punting, so catching this slip might be a huge help. Trade chips are the best kinda chips!
My fave picks of round 14: Bonifacio, Garza, Murphy, Bailey, Maybin, Lowrie (I begin to define "fave" rather loosely these last couple, and remaining rounds, but if I can't find the gem among my own pick and 6 "faves", then I'm a lost cause!)
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| 36 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Fri, Apr 05, 2013, 03:39
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5 & 14 picks away when I'm ready for bed this time, and luckily I won't be at work the next day, so I won't have to go for a 4 round queue. Pace is getting a bit fast for my comfort this week, so I decide to not reload my queue just yet.
JLucroy, AJPierzynski, BAnderson, CNelson, TPlouffe, JMontero, CCarter remained, and a need for catcher, 3b, pitching and utility players was also remaining. Ended up with Jonathan Lucroy, C, 15.12 as my starting catcher. Another guy that impressed me in the small sample I got to see of the WBC. Also impressive in a medium sample last season. Hoping he can add to the numbers with more games this season, without sacrificing some of those percentages from last year. If last year was a true growth year, he could be ready for a nice season this year. If he can play all year, I could see Lucroy put up a season of 65/80/3/.330/.430.
Another pretty decent steal compared to the other drafts. Starting to get back some draft value. I do like my reach picks better than my slip picks though. Makes sense I suppose.
My fave picks of round 15: Ichiro, Jansen, Santos, Carpenter, Anderson, Fiers.
For round 16, I really just hoped that I could land Nelson or Plouffe, but Olt and Profar were kinda tempting, while Pierzynski and Carter also had me tempted. But my third base hole wasn't getting any better by ignoring it. Luckily I was able to land Chris Nelson, 3B, 16.05 and put in action my plan to corner the Rockies third base situation. When in doubt or trouble, give Coors a shot?! (If that fails, have some Coors, or shots?...)
I really wanted Nelson for a few rounds, but the reports were sounding like he might not even win the job, which was great for filling other needs and gambling that he would fall to me. Once he got regular playing time last year, he was quite a star player, and I'm hoping to see more of that this year. The best was done in September, but August and June were pretty good as well. I'm predicting a season line of 70/70/2/.340/.440 for Nelson.
Big reach again, by a couple rounds. First of all drafts... I was due for a slip up.
My fave picks of round 16: Peralta, Span, Estrada, Ogando, Infante, Montero
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| 37 | filthy
ID: 4157202
Fri, Apr 05, 2013, 04:20
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Util, Backup Short, Backup Third, Backup OF. 5 more arms is what I need after 16 rounds. Almost able to fill one final queue. Leftover bats from the last queue and a bunch of relief seemed like the plan. But for Starting pitching, one name was tempting me, so I still thought I should go for Trevor Bauer,SP,17.12, but I wasn't sure when. He almost seemed ready to get a roster spot on the day of my pick, but with the likely May/June callup, I still felt Bauer was worth the risk. With 4 big name arms, I didn't really need the innings, so I felt it was worth a gamble on upside after all the vet picks I'd been making. The Indians made the similar gamble, so I'm hoping that putting faith in their judgment pays off. My brain was thinking I should cover my tail at 3rd or Catcher, or even handcuff Madson to Frieri, but this hunch just had me tunnel visioned towards Bauer. Hoping it wasn't a terrible audible. I predict a late May callup for Bauer, with a season line of 8/-/120/4.00/1.30
Only 2 leagues of 5 drafted Bauer, and I was first. Talk about falling off the wagon. Biggest reach of all the RIBCs? I think he'll make for some good spot starts with high K potential at the least.
My fave picks of round 17: Plouffe, Brown, Clippard, Parnell, Alonso, Doumit.
Would have been better off going with Madson or Carter last round, but maybe I walked into a lucky pick there. Lost the chance at both guys for the round 18 pick, and ended up landing AJ Pierzynski, Util, 18.06 as Catcher insurance, or as my Util if he can even come close to last year's stats. Moving to Texas might not hurt his chances. I could see Pierzynski putting up a 60/70/-/.320/.440 season, which wouldn't make for a bad platoon catching partner on my squad. Hoping he's not in every other year mode, but really not a huge gamble.
Actually got him a bit earlier than the other drafts, but he is very unlikeable, and last year's season seems very hard to repeat. Worth a shot this late.
My fave picks of round 18: Madson, Carter, Olt, Joyce, Pestano, Moreland.
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| 38 | Khahan
ID: 39432178
Mon, Jun 03, 2013, 13:40
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How about that Dominic Brown!!! (ok, go ahead and throw Estrada back in my face....though the season isn't over and he can wrack up the K's!)
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