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Subject: RIBC AAA 2013 PCL #1-5 RATIONALES
Posted by: judy
- Dude [7771722] Sat, Mar 16, 2013, 17:33
Time for rationales!
Please do them in groups of 5. This thread is for the first five. Try to keep up to date with them.
First though, tell us why you chose you draft slot (assuming you HAD a choice)... |
| 1 | judy
Dude
ID: 7771722
Sat, Mar 16, 2013, 17:48
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Draft slot: odds #7, even #10.
I like to be near the middle because I hate to wait and have my Q decimated. I went for 7 because I wanted a studly type guy in the first round - who turned out to be Votto.
1.07 JOEY VOTTO 1B CIN
This was a hard choice between CarGo and Votto. I have had CarGo on my team for several years and he swears he will stay healthy this year.
However, Joey Votto has shown to be a 1B power guy, and OBP guy and hopefully this year will regain his power stroke. Players like him are few and far between. He also plays on a better team in my opinion. I will miss the CarGo SB, but will find them elsewhere I hope.
Votto is in the top 3 for 1B. I’ll take 30 HR, 100 RBI and R, and a 1.000 OPS. High expectations fella -- go for it.
So, time for a change and Votto it is!
2.10. CLIFF LEE SP PHL
I really wanted Hamels! Darn you GO!!! If I can’t have Hamels, then I will take Lee. (I considered Price, but absr stole him away at 2.09., but I do enjoy -- most years-- actually watching my fantasy players play…)
His W total (6 for 2012) just cannot be as bad as last year as the Phillies have bostered their bullpen…I expect 200 K, a WHIP in the teens, a low 3 ERA and about 16 wins. Right now he is the #3 starter, but with Halladay’s possible woes… he might move to 2nd, but does it really matter?
3.07 BRANDON PHILLIPS 2B CINN
I prefer to get an INF set before looking hard at the OF guys. There are tons of them all offering different stats. Once I get the INF set, I’ll look at the stats I need and go from there. Phillips is probably a reach at this point, but I like his steady numbers. #4 AAA PCL 2B drafted but perhaps a bit too high overall. Have had him on a few teams in the past and he has not disappointed. I like him ahead of Hill (can he repeat last year?) and Kipnis. Watched him in the WBC. I consider 2B a weak spot, so I wanted to get a decent one one fairly early.
4.10 JONATHAN PAPELBON RP PHL
Personally I do not like the guy, but he does get those saves. I have been at the bottom in saves for too many years so I wanted to get a reliable closer and be done with it! Happy to finish in the middle stats for this category. Way too iffy a position once the season commences. (nb. Watch him get hurt…)
5.07 BRETT LAWRIE 3B TOR
As I said, I do like to have a fairly strong starting infield ready early on. The hope is that Lawrie will grow into his potential. ~.280 ave, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 90 R would be a nice line. Batting fifth with Reyes, M Cabrera,Bautista and Encarnacion ahead of him, those numbers are a real possibility. The older 3B who have already proven themselves were gone by my turn. He is our 9th 3B!
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| 2 | Valkyrie
ID: 210563113
Sat, Mar 16, 2013, 18:10
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1.04 Robinson Cano- 2B NYY
Tried to make the safest pick on the board- ok I hoped Trout or Cabrera might slip to me but I am happy with Cano. Briefly considered Kemp and Votto.
2.13 Edwin Encarnacion- 1B Toronto
Best available IFer- considered Hanley and Adrian Gonzalez but opted for Edwin’s power and Toronto offense.
3.04 Craig Kimbrel- RP- Atl
Can’t believe I took an RP this early but he was so far ahead of second choice
Motte or Rodney that I had to take him. This was just a matter of the player most exceeding his replacement value.
4.13 Michael Bourn- OF Cleve
Figured I had to shore up SB’s pretty soon and no one else jumped out at me.
5.04 Jimmy Rollins, ss phila
Didn’t think an acceptable ss would make it back to me. This was a positional pick but maybe Andrus might have been better.
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| 3 | youngroman
ID: 3913664
Sat, Mar 16, 2013, 18:13
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1.13 Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA
I did not rank any players before the draft. The reasoning for this was that when I was scheduled to selecting my draft postion as the 14th manager you can only expect a draft slot of 12 or later. when I was up the lowest slot was #13 which I took. I don't like to have 2 picks within only a short period so #13 was the best I can get. I still feel that I may be late when closers are getting off the board.
back to this selection: I simply waited until I was up and then selected the best remaining player. Luckily this was Stanton who is capable of leading the league in home runs. too bad that he does not have much surrounding cast, so his RBI and run totals are lower. otherwise if this would not be the case he would be long gone and I would probably have taken a starting pitcher because out of all other hitters there is a good chance that one of them is still available when my next pick is due.
2.04 Buster Posey, C/1B, SF
my plan was to get a non-OF hitter here. according to my list only Posey was worth to get drafted here. this is ok for me because this year may be a year where my catcher slot should come close to being used for all possible games because Posey will play 1B on most days where he is rested as a C. his OBP and SLG is way above other catchers. and with the additional playing time runs and RBIs top most other catchers too.
3.13 Jered Weaver, SP, LAA
after 2 hitters to start the draft it was time and my plan to get a starter here. after Matt Cain went at 3.06 I hoped that Weaver still makes it because I had not eyed a different pitcher for this pick. I thought about Bumgarner too but I thought i would take him in round 4 if I don't take a pitcher here. luckily Weaver was still out there and I got him.
he should provide excellent ratios and his K numbers aren't too bad. They could be better but I do rather have a good ERA and WHIP than many K's. there are no "complete" pitchers available after the first few went.
4.04 Allen Craig, 1B/OF, STL
with 2 picks to go I made up a queue of Bumgarner, Craig and Adam Jones. Bumgarner is a SP above the rest of the available competition. of course he is taken 1 pick too early. Craig and Jones are both providing power hitter value. as a Craig owner of 2011 I know what he can provide to my team. He is also eligible at 1B and OF compared to only OF for Jones. This brought him above Jones on my queue.
we will see how this will turn out. Jones was taken immediately after this pick to it seems I was right on his value too.
5.13 Desmond Jennings, OF, TB
after taking 3 power guys as my first 3 batters I had to look at a guy with speed. would have liked to get a middle infielder here but none of them stood out. Desmond Jennings when healthy is good for 40 stolen bases if not more. I'll take that. this also means that my team is now around 50 SBs in the hunt for a projected 160 after 4 of 12 players. still slightly behind but not by much.
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| 4 | Seattle Zen
ID: 3603123
Sat, Mar 16, 2013, 18:55
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I learned that I had the third pick of slot while in LAX and I was happy but at the same time scared. In my mind, this year third is the worst slot because I am not a Trout believer - of course third is the first spot taken.
I’m taking Miggy, it’s that easy. I do not believe Mike Trout will finish in the top 30 players this year. Last year was so unprecedented, people expect him to regress, but just a bit. I think it will be so much that he will get sick of hearing about his sophomore slump.
I have no intention of taking a pitcher at 32 & 33. I am so very excited to see a SP run start at the end of the first round. I have spent a lot of time, actually, far too much time, looking at other drafts and deciding who I would take at 32 & 33 and there have been a few that have left me ashen faced. After Bryce Harper comes off at 22, I make a list of players I would be happy with – Pedroia, E5, Josh Hamilton, Goldschmidt, Jason Heyward, Hanley Ramirez, and Ian Kinsler. There are nine picks ahead of me. I actually jump up out of my chair and fist pump when I see David Wright, David Price and Cliff Lee come off, I am going to get my guys!
Two teams picked pitchers with their first two picks. That is certainly a different philosophy than mine and I am actually glad that they did as it allowed the bats I wanted to slide down the draft. Jose Bautista at 14 Upton at 18 and Bryce at 22 were excellent values. No shockingly poor picks so far.
Damn it! I really hoped Pedroia would survive one more pick… Time for plan b at second base.
I would have taken E5 over 2.16.32 Paul Goldschmidt, but I believe both will put up gaudy numbers this season. I have a short list of touts whom I trust and this year they are unanimous in their praise of Goldy. With Kirk Gibson as manager, I think he will be in the teens in steals. I can’t comprehend how he is taken 72nd in ESPN leagues. I don’t think I reached here at all. There is something wrong with Adrian Gonzales, he doesn’t walk as much as he once did, not as powerful. I think Goldschmidt will have a better OPS and those steals.
3.1.33 Jayson Heyward is my gut pick, I think he is in store for a monster breakout. He is a huge guy who I could see learning to get under a few more and hitting 40 perm dudes this year to go with 20 steals. Atlanta’s lineup improved with the Upton brothers arrival and Heyward will benefit. I feel he is more reliable than Cespedes as this will be his fourth major league season and he has shown improvement in power and has always had a solid eye.
I could not bring myself to pick Ian Kinsler, the Texas offense is going to be rather average this season, bringing downing down his RBI and runs. Just because he has been healthy the last two seasons does not mean he is no longer fragile, I think he is due a DL trip this year. And I have him ranked fourth at 2nd, behind…
4.16.64 Aaron Hill. Ever since he arrived in AZ, he has been crushing the ball and stealing bases. He will be batting third in a strong lineup. Everyone is predicting regression, I am simply predicting less than others. An OPS in the .800’s and teen steals, that makes three straight 5 category producers in a row.
I was watching R.A. Dickey fall and was quite willing to take a chance on him. Enough already with the “he has moved to the AL East!!!” it is not 2009! The Jays play the Yanks 7 times in April and 3 more in May. There will be lineups he faces in those games that will either make your stomach churn (Yanks fans) or explode in giddy laughter – the rest of us. I hope I get him in another league.
5.1.65 Chris Sale. I landed him last season in the PCL and I was quite happy. The kid has the goods, preying mantis wind up and delivery, filthy stuff. Tired half way through because he had never pitched this much. He’s a year older and stronger, I like him as my staff anchor. Even though he was the 17th starter off the board, I had him as 10th or 11th. Was considering Joe Mauer who was a bargain at 76, great amount of RBI and top 3 OBP, but I figured that the pickings at SP 32 picks later would not be ideal.
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| 5 | mmikulka
ID: 512421618
Sat, Mar 16, 2013, 19:45
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Draft slot: 6
I chose #6 because there were five batters I really liked, and I assumed at least one of (Kemp/Pujols/Votto) would go before my pick.
1.06 Clayton Kershaw - SP, LAD
Naturally, McCutchen went with the 5th pick, and so I had an unexpected dilemma. I don’t trust either Kemp or Pujols this year, and Votto’s injury also bothers me enough not to take him. Last year I went 17 rounds with only 1 starting pitcher (Lincecum, naturally), and I’ve always wanted to own Kershaw, so I figured I’d get my pitching out of the way early.
2.11 Felix Hernandez – SP, SEA
As my pick approached, I started to wonder if King Felix would reach me. With a group of batters I found uninspiring (Hamilton could be a risk, Encarnacion probably won’t approach last year’s numbers, Ben Zobrist only has OF eligibility this year…), I decided to double up on aces.
3.06 Matt Cain – SP, SF
I got to be on deck for quite a while on this pick, and had Kinsler and Cain way above everybody else (after all, Zobrist only has OF eligibility this year, right?). Please not Kinsler! Naturally, Kinsler went, and so now I have 3 really good SPs. It was about 7 or 8 picks later that I found out that though ESPN for some reason only lists Zobrist in their OF rankings, he does in fact have his SS and 2B eligibility too. Oh well.
4.11 Ryan Zimmerman – 3B, WAS
This one wasn’t a particularly difficult choice for me. I was very surprised to see Zimmerman fall this far, and the other people I was looking at weren’t likely to be picked for a while. Hopefully he stays relatively healthy this year.
5.06 Jason Kipnis - 2B, CLE
I don’t tend to draft many players in their first or second year because people like to factor in anticipated improvement, which frequently doesn't pan out. I would be satisfied with anything close to a repeat of last year for Kipnis, though, and so I’m comfortable with this pick, especially considering his potential and what my likely 2B options would have been otherwise.
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| 6 | Nerfherders
ID: 1511182416
Sat, Mar 16, 2013, 20:02
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Pick #14 Not much choice here - 14 or 15 and wanted my picks a bit farther apart. That being said, I kind of like picking on this end of the draft. I had my greatest draft picking in this very slot two years ago so here's hoping it works again. One of the things I have noticed is that value drops precipitously at about 4.05 or so, especially for hitters, so I get 4 picks before that in this slot.
1.14 Jose Bautista, OF TOR Bautista only dropped this far because of his injury last year. However, he is a remarkable hitter in this format and his injury seems to be far behind him. If he plays 150 games he will be a top 5 player.
2.03 Jose Reyes, SS TOR Two Blue Jays in the first two picks - whodathunk? I wasn't expecting to take Reyes here, but when I looked at the available players he was flashing at me like a big neon sign. .800 OPS and 35 SB at a weak position? Yes please, sign me up! I considered Pedroia here, but I feel that Reyes will have similar numbers plus the extra steals.
3.14 Jacoby Ellsbury, OF BOS My plan here was to take one of the second tier SP - one of Gio Gonzalez, Jered Weaver, Matt Cain, or Yu Darvish. And guess what? All off the board right before my pick. And all available at 3.14 in all the other RIBC drafts. Go figure. With those guys being gone, I went back to hitters. I considered Holliday and Zobrist, but then I gambled on Jacoby Ellsbury. His last full season in 2011 was incredible. If I get something even approaching that I have awesome value at this spot. The thing for him is injuries. If he goes down it could very well sink my season. I usually let others take the risk/reward, but this time I said "What the hell!"
4.03 Madison Bumgarner, SP SF This is the spot where I won the PCL two years ago, with my pick of Verlander. Can Bumgarner be as good? He certainly has the numbers and the upside potential. I carefully weighed him vs. Chris Sale and it was a tossup for me. I chose Bumgarner because of his longer track record in the majors. I usually like a more established pitcher as my #1 SP, but I am confident with Bumgarner leading the staff.
5.14 Yovani Gallardo, SP MIL I wasn't quite satisfied with Bumgarner leading my staff so I needed a closer #2 than I usually go for. This was a fairly clear choice for me, as Gallardo was one of the few ace quality pitchers left in the draft. With Bumgarner and Gallardo leading the staff, I am set for SP for a while.
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| 7 | Seattle Zen
ID: 3603123
Sat, Mar 16, 2013, 21:29
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I have been told by my editors that it is a "praying mantis", which is not nearly as cool as "preying". Those bugs are badasses and prey upon the meek and timid, not amongst those who shall inherit the Earth.
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| 8 | GO
ID: 300542419
Sat, Mar 16, 2013, 21:43
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Pick 16
I went with the back to backs cause I have a newborn baby and could knock out picks back to back quicker and easier :) Also just got a 2nd job. Maybe that will lead to a peculiar set of draft picks too.
1.16 Stephen Strasburg
Was one pick from Verlander, Strasburg in a full year should hopefully light it up. But i was trying to move up a few spots to make sure I got Verlander. Looks like me needing an easy drafting spot cost me.
2.01 Cole Hamels
Took Cole Hamels earlier then I wanted, but he wasn't getting back to me so never a reach if thats the guy you wanted and he wasn't coming back. Judy was going to make sure of that.
3.16 Adam Wainwright
He's a good pitcher. I am starting to acquire a few of these here so thats a good thing. Think he'll be even better a year further from surgery.
4.01 CC Sabathia
As a Yankee hater this is a win-win... either he breaks a leg and has a bad year and I'm pleased they stink or he has another great year in him and I benefit. That hopefully makes for 800 IP I've got covered so far.
5.16 Jason Motte
I have no idea why Motte is ranked so high but I'm sticking with the ranks here cause I never follow closers much. Seems like a solid closing pitcher on a winning team, so thats fine.
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| 9 | Andy
ID: 8102711
Sun, Mar 17, 2013, 03:05
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Draft slot - 2 Pick - 2
1.02(2) Mike Trout OF, LAA
Wanted to take 3rd pick to get whichever of the top 3 was left. MJD had the same idea though. Took #2 to pick 1 pick earlier in the 2nd round. I was hoping for Miggy, but happy to have Trout. I have Miggy on 2 other teams and Braun on 1, so happy to have Trout in 1 now.
2.15(31) Dustin Pedroia 2B, BOS
I was really hoping Hanley would make it past MJD. Encarnacion was also an early consideration. Once it was my turn, the decision was how to get Pedroia and Heyward on the turn. I knew I could take Heyward then hope for Pedroia to get past Zen, and likely settle for Kinsler. Ultimately, I decided I wanted Pedroia over Kinsler and hoped for the best.
3.02(34) Jay Bruce OF, CIN
Considered Cain or a 1B here, but decided to go Bruce since I just missed on him in another draft. Could've also taken Adam Jones here.
4.15(63) Zach Greinke SP, LAD
I was hoping for Allen Craig here, though I was pretty sure he wouldn't make it. Had an eye on Desmond as my pick approached, but lost him to Fosten. I was debating between Dickey and Greinke as the pick approached and MJD made the pick for me.
5.02(66) Aramis Ramirez 3B, MIL
Agonized over Ramirez/Sandoval/Lawrie for this pick. I decided to go “safe” with the projected OPS advantage of Ramirez. With Trout anchoring my Sbs, I felt I could forgo the advantage Lawrie had there.
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| 10 | Aman
ID: 24111108
Sun, Mar 17, 2013, 20:52
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Draft Slot #8
1.8 Albert Pujols – LAA 1B I knew I wasn’t going to get the top tier guys (Cabrera, Trout or Braun) but I was thinking that either Votto, Pujols or Fielder might fall here. Pujols is starting to backslide but a potential .900+ ops , 100+ RBI’s with a handful of SB’s is certainly worth the pick.
2.9 David Price – TB SP – Reigning AL Cy Young winner. Need I say more? I shouldn’t but I will. The Rays will take it all this year. Ray fans if you hadn’t guessed. I was surprised after the run of pitchers take that he was still available.
3.8 Adrian Gonzalez LAD 1B– Took what I thought was that best available position player regardless of position. His projected stat line of .855 ops, and 80-90 RBI’s will help in the counting stats. He’s not going to help much in the SB category. Hopefully, I can make that up with another pick.
4.9 B.J. Upton Atl OF – I really am not an Upton fan. I watched him strike out too many times. He swings at the first pitch too much and generally was frustrating to watch BUT his combination of power and speed makes him an attractive pick here. Hopefully with his move to Atlanta, I won’t see him as much and won’t be yelling at him anymore. The Atlanta fans will find out soon enough. The guy is so fast that he looks like he's loafing when he runs.
5.8 Fernando Rodney – TB RP – Wow…where did he come from last year? He was great to watch and a true diamond-in-the-ruff for the Rays. Gotta grab a closer or two and based on last year’s performance, he’s as good as almost any.
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| 11 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Mon, Mar 18, 2013, 22:32
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Draft Slot #9 - I didn't think I would get a much better player at #4. I don't like long breaks between picks because of possibility of missing a run on a position.
1.09 Matt Kemp OF, LAD
I was happy to Kemp was available with this pick. After being injury free for 4 years and the top fantasy producer in 2011, a hamstring injury hurt him in 2012. Still in his prime at 28, I expect him to post numbers close to 2011 in all categories expect SB.
2.08 David Wright 3B, NYM
Wright puts up good numbers in all categories at the 3B position. Considered taking a SP (Price or Lee), but decided to wait until next round. Thought the drop-off for my next pick at 3B would be greater than SP.
3.09 Gio Gonzalez SP, WAS
After picking two hitters, I wanted to get a SP with this pick. Gonzalez walk rate decreased last season making him one of the top pitchers in the game. I expect a similar stats to 2012 this season.
4.08 Ryan Howard, 1B PHI
I think Howard's stuggles last year were because he wasn't fully recovered from the Achilles injury. From what I have heard, he has looked great in spring training. Even though he wasn't rated this high, I really wanted Howard on my team and was afraid he wouldn't be available next pick.
5.09 Johnny Cueto SP, CIN
I was looking to get a 2nd SP with this pick. Cueto's numbers have improved in each of his 5 ML seasons. At 28 he is in his prime.
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| 12 | jseth333
ID: 507151215
Tue, Mar 19, 2013, 09:53
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Draft Slot #11 - I did not have much choice by the time I picked...I think I could have gone lower but why bother...
1.11 Troy Tulowiski SS COL
I thought Prince might fall to me, but he was taken with the pick before. Troy can be elite when he stays on the field, which was obviously not the case so much last year. Here's to good health.
2.06 Bryce Harper OF WAS
I am a believer.
3.11 Yu Darvish SP TEX
Many people's pick for AL Cy Young this year...I would take that.
4.06 Austin Jackson, OF DET
Dynamic player who should score a bunch of runs.
5.11 Joe Mauer, C MIN
Can be an on base machine...when healthy...
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| 13 | mjd
Leader
ID: 501381415
Tue, Mar 19, 2013, 19:36
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With the first pick in the draft selection process (a first for me in any RI_C format), I was real tempted to take the first draft pick, but the thought of watching 30 players disappear off the boards between my picks was not all that appealing, and since my first round picks in the last few years have been busts, I figured I’d let the choice be made by the first 2 pickers, since I’d be satisfied with any of the top 3 consensus picks. And as mentioned in another rationale, I was generally happy to avoid picking in the 6-12 range, where the current value of those players seem, at this point in time, to be very similar. I’m still waiting 27 picks on one end, but those 3 extra slots every other could make a difference. How many times has the player you targeted for a pick get snatched just prior to your selection?
1.03 Ryan Braun, OF, MIL
Not completely sold on Trout, I might have preferred Miggy here, due to the Miami PED cloud hanging over Braun’s head, but after further investigation it does not appear that Uncle Bud will grow a pair any time soon and is content to parrot the SOS about MLB having the toughest testing /consequence program in any of the major North American sports, bla, bla, bla. So while some players, including Braun, could still get slapped with a 50 game suspension, as time passes, it seems less likely. I'm just going to pick and let the chps fall where they may.
Now as to Braun himself, I’ll take the consistent 5 stat categories that he continues to deliver despite the perceived lack of “lineup protection”.
(Proceed to dream sequence.) My first 3 picks could go 40/40, 30/30, and 20/20.
2.14 Hanley Ramirez, SS, 3B, MI, CI, LAD My bust 1st round pick of 2 years ago is back at his old position in a new town, hopefully with a new attitude. Certainly there’s risk to be had here, but he’s at a point in his career where it’s not too late to return to his former promising position as an elite 5 tool talent. Multi-positionality certainly a plus.
3.03 Starlin Castro, SS, CHC Somehow I just have a gut feeling about this guy. Hopefully it’s a precursor to a career year and not the Mexican food I ate prior to this pick. SS seems to be one of this year’s shallower positions and picking 2 early will be useful for MI or trade bait. Hopefully this also causes a feeding frenzy that causes someone to panic and make a mistake by reaching for one.
4.14 R. A. Dickey, SP, TOR At this point in the draft, there inevidably will be someone who slips through the cracks. Rankings vary, managers overreach, but by now, there’s value to be had. BINGO, Dickey fits the bill. Not drafted in last year’s RIBC, I did pick him up. Unfortunately, he wasn’t enough to keep me from falling to AAA, this year.
5.03 Freddie Freeman, 1B, ATL Amazing that 9 1st basemen are already off the board and this source of power and OBP is still around. Talk about a deep position. Unlike last offseason, he was healthy this winter and added some muscle in offseason workouts. At only age 23 and already 2 impressive years in the bigs, his development should continue to trend upwards.
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| 14 | maspero
ID: 56210205
Wed, Mar 20, 2013, 06:11
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1.12 Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Col
One of the best and most complete young players in the game. Period. If only he could stay healthy the entire season … If only said season was THIS season … Good value at pick 11. By the way, I overheard Cargo swearing to Judy he will stay healthy this year.
2.05 Adrian Beltre, 3B, TEX
Third basemen were at the top of my wish list at this point, and I decided to go for the often overlooked Beltre over the sexiest Longo and D. Wright. I think he showed over the years at the end of the season to be steadier and more reliable (I would say less injury risk if I didn’t fear to jinx him …).
3.12 Billy Butler, 1B, KC
I simply love Country Breakfast. He had a great season last year, and all underlying statistical numbers seem to back it up, given also his still early age. And by the way, first basemen pool is not rich as it used to be.
4.05 Adam Jones, OF, BAL
My big dilemma ! After resisting the temptation to get SPs earlier (I love pitchers !!!), it was the time to pick one. I was pretty sure Wainwright, whom I really love this season, getting fully healthy after TJS, would fall to me. Next thing I know, GO decides to pick all the SPs on the market and wipes Wainwright. So when I go to bed I leave a queue with Jones (who in all draft sheets I look was drafted waaaaay earlier and whom I was sure somebody would pick up) at the top and Dickey (whom I trusted less than Wainwright) second. That’s how I got “stuck” with Jones. Anyway a very good value, even if he regresses some from last year numbers.
5.12 Kris Medlen, SP, ATL
After the Wainwright / Dickey fiasco, it was finally time to pick a SP, and since the best pitchers were gone (mostly thanks to GO …) I felt pressed to gamble a little bit on Medlen upside over some more reliable pitcher. I also considered Max Scherzer here.
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| 15 | twilson
ID: 221142214
Fri, Apr 12, 2013, 17:15
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0.16 Draft Slot #15
After a run of good fortune in recent years for the draft slot lottery, my luck took a turn for the worse. Given the lack of choice, I’m happy with my spot. Once the top half of the draft was full, I was just hoping to be close to—but not on—the turn, and 15th fits the bill.
1.15 Justin Verlander, SP, DET
I had no predetermined plans for this pick. Had Bautista dropped one more slot, he probably would’ve been my selection. Every hitter I considered had at least one major question mark, so I decided to go with the very reliable Justin Verlander instead. In my four previous years of RIBC, I had never taken a SP before 4.15, so this represents a major deviation from past precedent. I’m curious to see how my offense responds.
2.02 Justin Upton, OF, ATL
When Great One went SP/SP on the turn, that meant all of the hitters I had considered at 1.15 were still on the board. Considerations were Reyes, Upton, Harper, Longoria, and Wright. I decided to use injury risk as a filter, which left me with a choice between the growth potential of Harper and growth potential/injury rebound of Upton. I am confident that Upton’s power will show a substantial uptick this year, though whether he makes it all the way back to .530 is far from certain. In the end, I deferred to consensus.
3.15 Ben Zobrist, SS/2B/OF, TAM
I thought Zobrist offered a clear value at this point in the draft. His strong history of health, five category production, and multi-position eligibility add up to a very appealing player. I drafted him in the late second last year in RIBC and he justified his draft position, so getting him one round later is a welcome bonus.
4.02 Chase Headley, 3B, SD
After going with Verlander in the first round, I was very pleasantly surprised when GO continued to add to his SP stable at the turn. I had no intention of taking another starter until the 5/6 turn at earliest, and likely not even then. My primary considerations for this pick were Headley, Zimmerman, Adam Jones, and Holliday. I spent a lot of time debating this choice and changed my mind multiple times. Eventually, I ruled out Zimmerman due to offseason shoulder surgery and Holliday due to his back issues during last year’s playoffs. I went with Headley because I believe that his big HR increase was due to a legitimate rise in power (borne out by a huge jump in average FB+HR distance), he carried a good health grade, and my opinion that 3B looks to be a position that lacks obvious value plays throughout the draft. Of course, he hurt himself a few rounds later, which
5.15 Carlos Santana, C/1B, CLE
6.02 Anthony Rizzo, 1B, CHC
A mini-run just prior to this pick ensured that I would not go for a second starter this early, so I concentrated my attention on the hitters, where there seemed to be a number of good values available. Santana, Rizzo, and Alex Gordon were dropping further than in the other RIBC leagues, while Shin-Soo Choo and Ike Davis were other hitters I found appealing. I actually drafted Gordon and Choo at the 4/5 turn last year in RIBC and felt they performed reasonably well, so getting them a round later was very intriguing. Due to greater depth at the other positions, I decided that a 1B would be one of my two picks, with a preference of Rizzo, but I was willing to take Ike if the Cub disappeared on the turn. When GO continued his pitching theme, I got my first choice. In the 5th, I let my sentimentality act as a tiebreaker and took Santana. I just like him as a player and appreciate the ways in which he creates value.
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