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Subject: RIBC AAA 2013 PCL #6-10 RATIONALES
Posted by: Judy
- [54203110] Mon, Mar 18, 2013, 20:21
Ready when you are! |
| 1 | Seattle Zen
ID: 3603123
Tue, Mar 19, 2013, 12:09
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Man, I would love it if Max Scherzer falls to me, but I know that is simply unlikely. My wish list after the turn also includes Aroldis Chapman, Shin Soo Choo, James Shields, Jose Altuve, and Yadier Molina. Damn, Fosten, I can’t believe you still haven’t picked a pitcher. Do you and GO plan to merge? If so, why didn’t I think of that? It is painful having to wait 31 picks and after 26 or so come off the board, watching a gem like Choo get picked, what a steal! As I type this, there are three picks ahead of me and I have a three person wish list. If all three are gone, I will be fu@ked, that’s putting it politely. I almost feel like I am jinxing myself even typing this right now. I want James Shields, Jose Altuve or Yadier Molina, who has really been dissed in our league. Yes, 6.16.96 Jamie has moved to a team with below average defense, but he strikes out 220 guys a year, you don’t need a defense behind you for that. He had some poor years, but his last two have been stellar. He has never picked up many wins, watch him win 17 for his career high and a good laugh.
Not many touts place 7.1.97 Jose Altuve above Yadier, but we all know that RIBC covets middle infielders like Golem and the Ring. I’m hoping for a .750 OPS and over 30 steals. Supposedly he will bat second, well, the Stros don’t have anyone who can get on base to lead off, so he shouldn’t be blocked with someone on second when he gets on. Maybe he will score more…? Like Chris Sale, he was a middle round gem I uncovered last year. In years past, I almost had an aversion to drafting a player who was a profitable pick the year before, I don’t know if it was fear of regression, lightning striking twice… Ignore what happened last year, this kid is quick and hopefully adds a tick or two to his power. Wow, I’ve drafted a lot of young players.
Time to go smoke a bowl! Legally! That’s right, I cannot be prosecuted for sparking up my bong filled with THC-rich marijuana buds here in Washington. What a great state!
Some excellent players come off the board. I had Erick Aybar penciled shortstop during my preseason planning. I figured he could be had in the tenth or eleventh, so I was surprised to see him go in the 7th at 104 to TD. It was a stretch but I guess if you looked at what was available at SS, it could be argued he was the best available. Plan B for short… Yadier finally comes off the board.
And BAM, the Closer Run is off! Do I take two? I like them in this order – Nathan, Putz, Romo, Perkins, Axford, Kaiser Wilhem. I’m looking far and wide for a bat that I like in this spot, but nothing is screaming value. I have at least a dozen outfielders I like who are going around 140-150. Melky is not getting any respect amongst this crew and I can understand why. When you have two great years out of the blue and then are caught with roids, well, maybe you will revert to your lousy numbers or worse, get caught again and sit for a 100. Here is the thing about steroids that most people don’t know: If you lift hard and heavy without roids, you will reach muscle mass X. Hard and heavy with roids for a year or two, muscle mass X+10. Hard and heavy with roids for a year or two then stop, you don’t go back to X, you go to X+4 or 5. Melky will be a stronger man even without the roids. He won’t recover like a rabbit, but he will be strong, and playing in TOR, he should have a decent year, so nice pick Aman.
With just a few picks to go, I have Romo and Perkins queued up and I’m going to take both. Bam, Romo and Axford are gone. I’m Skyping for the first time in nearly a month with my daughter Aurora who is in India. She is “studying” abroad for a semester, but it looks more like traveling and drinking beer according to her Facebook photos. When I see that 8.16.128 Glen Perkins is taken, there has been one bat I was eyeing, 9.1.129 Miguel Montero. He is 29 and is coming off identical great seasons, outstanding walk rate, .820 OPS, 87 rbi and 65 runs. He is on most top 100 lists and those do not take into account his outstanding OBP. I was leaning towards someone else, but I have taken plenty of 23 year olds already. Kaiser Willie could very well be traded by the M’s, last year a good third of closers lost their jobs. Miguel is not going to lose his job. I pull the trigger and realize that three of my first nine players are DBack bats. Whoa, hadn’t thought of that, but then, BFD, back in 2009 would you have said, “Wait, I already have Mark Teixeria and ARod, I can’t pick up Cano?” And, yes, Goldy, Hill and Montero are the 2009 Tex, Arod and Cano!
I do have some closer tricks up my sleeve for later, and I have some outfielders I am targeting for my next two picks.
10.16.160 Coco Crisp was one of my absolute must haves this season and I am glad to have snagged him here. Last season, someone cut him in the PCL after a horrible first couple of months. Let’s play: Guess who!
Player A:OPS - .745 Steals - 42
Player B: OPS - .868 Steals - 23
Player C: OPS - .757 Steals - 36
Player D: OPS - .755 Steals – 31
Player A is BJ Upton season 2010, Player C is BJ Upton season 2011, Player D is, wait for it… BJ Upton season 2012 and Player B is Coco Crisp’s second HALF of last year. Yes, he had a .355 OPB and a ridiculous .513 SLG in the second half. He had three different injuries in the first half last year, including some inner ear thing. Once those cleared up, watch out. He won’t maintain a .500+ slugging, but I can imagine a .800 OPS with over forty steals and that is cash money!
There was a serious closer run that obliterated the list in the last 25 picks. Not a single catcher comes off the board, maybe I should have taken Wilhemsen, Miguel may have been there at 161. Once Jannsen comes off the board, I’m going to take another bat. Last season I had a made a choice between Nick Swisher and Andre Ethier and went with the AE, I was wrong. Looking at 11.1.161 Nick Swisher over the years is a study in consistency. Four straight years of OPS over .820 and OPB over .354. His RBI are a touch low because he had batted down in the order in the Bronx, I would not be surprised with 100 rbi in Cleveland. I think he will thrive being back home in Ohio and in the no pressure environment of the Indians. He has both 1st and OF eligibility. Looking at available first basemen, to me he is head and shoulders above what is left and the fact that mmikukla did not have a first bagger going into pick 155 had me very worried. Liked the Dan Haren pick, which Haren will show up this year? Judy could have waited a few rounds before going with Dom Brown.
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| 2 | Nerfherders
ID: 161121811
Tue, Mar 19, 2013, 16:50
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This section of the draft for me is always kind of hard to figure. It's not until round 11 that I start to look at what I'm missing and then the draft gets much more focused. Get a 2B, check! get a C, check! Get a CI, check! etc etc. But 6-10 is kind of best available, but also that dreaded closer run happens. It always seems to interrupt what I am doing otherwise.
Paul Konerko, 1B CWS Here's a model of consistency for you. Konerko just plugs along doing what he does - 80-25-90 .350/.500. Year, in, year out. Reminds me of Fred McGriff back in his day. I might have reached a bit to get him, but the .03 pick is always a reach because it's 26 picks before I go again.
7.14 Josh Willingham, OF MIN I sensed the closer run about to begin, but I can wait until my .03 to deal with that. Because of Reyes and Ellsbury, I can still afford to go with sluggers, and there were few greater than Willingham last year. I don't expect him to repeat those numbers, but if anyone had, he would have been drafted in round 2. I'd be more than pleased with what I posted for Konerko above.
8.03J.J. Putz, RP AZ And it begins! I was going to draft Nathan here, but it started one pick earlier, so I grabbed the next best one, which is Putz. He's had some shaky seasons in the past but seemed to turn things around last year. And so far he's not hurt, which is a bonus for me this preseason, after having Soria go down within 24 hours of drafting him last year.
9.14 Brandon League, RP LAD And what a run it was! To the point where there were no more closers left who had solid jobs. League's seems to be the most solid of all of those, but it's tough to keep your job when you're not the best reliever on your staff. Sure enough, his handcuff went 4 picks later. But I had to go with at least one more relatively solid closer and just hoping. Did I mention I hate closers?
10.03 Kevin Youkilis, 3B NYYThe traitor! Well, to anyone living north or east of Hartford at least. I was all set to pick Utley here as I figured he fell enough, but alas. So I went to my empty 3B slot. I could have waited and went with some younger guys, but I liked Youkilis here as another solid OPS guy.
Last year I went with too many young spec guys and it cost me, so my strategy for the 6-10 slots was to go for OPS veterans. Taking SB's early helped me get more value in these picks as well. From this point I can chase positions and solidify my stats.
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| 3 | youngroman
ID: 3913664
Tue, Mar 19, 2013, 17:02
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6.04 Max Scherzer, SP, DET
after a pitcher that gets me a ERA and WHIP at the cost of a few K's I took a pitcher that gets K's at the cost of ERA and WHIP. the cost is not high though. there is a good chance that he will provide me with over 200 strikeouts. if he gets that with a 3.8 ERA and a 1.3 WHIP I am ok with this pick. everything more is a plus. There is hope for a huge plus.
7.13 Rickie Weeks, 2B, MIL
I thought about an infielder here, in the best case a 2B or SS. the only player that qualified with around 5 picks to go was Weeks. I like that his OBP and SLG are near my team target and that runs, RBIs and SB are above the average at his position. I hoped that he would make it, otherwise I would have taken Josh Willingham.
8.04 Will Middlebrooks, 3B, BOS
after Willingham went right after my last pick I had no clue what to do with this pick. I thought about best hitter available, best hitter at 3B or SS to fill my infield. starting pitcher, closer? too many needs and too few players I like that usually go at this point.
I looked at the closers available and they are just too many. I am not good at ranking them because even projections out there don't have them in the same tiers. I then decided that I will take a closer in the 9th and most likely also in the 10th. I hope that at least 2 of them make it back to me. right now I see 10 to 12 closers I would be happy with these 2 picks.
the same can be said about starting pitchers. I guess some projections are off because of injury risks and age. I have eyed a few pitchers but looking at the other RIBC drafts they went much later, so I could not pull the trigger on one of them.
this leaves me looking through the hitters. Will Middlebrooks was not the best one available, but near the top. 3B seems very thin this year. the stats, especially the percentages, are dropping a lot after the first 10. this is also true for Middlebrooks who has projections for OBP between .292 and .332. at least his SLG is way above most other infielders available. if you add that he is playing for the Red Sox and batting early he should get many opportunities for runs and RBIs compared to the competition. only time will tell if I listened to the right projections.
9.13 Steve Cishek, RP, MIA
I wanted a closer with this pick and my next. I initially wanted to take one at 8.04 but could not pull the trigger because there were still too many left. closers went later in the RIBC-leagues drafting ahead of us so I thought that I could pass in round 8 and get 2 with a job security in round 9 and 10.
That did not work out as planned. too many closers went in the last 24 picks. I woke up this morning with 1 pick due before I am up. I looked at the remaining closers without issues and only identified 2 so I basically knew that I won't get both of them. as soon as I put Balfour and Cishek into my queue I waited all day only to see Balfour getting picked and Cishek falling to me. this ended my quest for a closer in round 10. the remaining closers will either start the season on DL, will be replaced by the player currently on DL, do not have a job yet because coaches can't decide whom to trust. or they play for the Astros. Cishek was the last one left that I felt had a pretty secure job. there is nothing sexy about him. he only gets a K per inning and his ERA and WHIP could be better too for a closer. but he has a secure job.
10.04 Jake Peavy, SP, CWS
since the closer plan went down the toilet in rounds 8 and 9 I had to rethink. at least I followed my plan to take a pitcher.
When Peavy stays healthy, and there are no signs that he won't, he can be elite. he proved this a few years ago and wasn't all that bad last year. ok, he was excellent last year. if you can get a player that is capable of a 3.4 ERA and 1.1 WHIP with nearly 8 K/9 you should do so, especially when this is already the 10th round and you are wondering why he is still out there.
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| 4 | mjd
Leader
ID: 501381415
Tue, Mar 19, 2013, 19:46
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6.14 Alex Rios, OF, CHW The top tier closers are already coming off the board. But still too early for me. Instead, I’ll throw in on an off year of an every other year fantasy performer. Tempting fate? Perhaps, but I’m not superstitious and I’m pretty comfortable with the level of risk I’ve assumed so far. The potential numbers are worth it, IMO. (knock on wood)
7.03 David Freese, 3B, StL After finally shedding his injury reputation last season, he starts this season with an achy back. But he’s responding to therapy and the last of his tier: there’s a significant drop off after him. Rather than dip into the volatile closer pool, I’ll buy a ticket on Freese. Considered Alex Gordon here, but already have filled 2 OF slots.
8.14 Addison Reed, RP, CHW Passed on closers during last season’s draft with poor results. Even though I didn’t intend to punt saves, it’s a proven strategy, abet not an easy one to execute, in RIBC play. Reed locked down the 9th inning role for the Pale Hose and held it through some rocky stretches, so he’s likely to have a longer leash than some. It also helps that the alternatives are somewhat limited.
9.03 Tom Wilhelmsen, RP, SEA Killed me to pick another closer here, but by the time it gets back to me in 27 picks, I’ll be looking at the dregs. Would have much preferred a potential innings eater, 200 K SP like Peavy here, but I’ll throw another log on this fire.
10.14 Ernesto Frier, RP, LAA Three RP in a row!!! Unchartered territory here for me, but with Madson coming off TJ surgery, and still working his way back, I like Frier to get plenty of chances provided the Angles don’t win a lot of games in blowout fashion.
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| 5 | Valkyrie
Dude
ID: 47042413
Wed, Mar 20, 2013, 14:20
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6.13 Martin Prado- 3B Arizona
Clearly a position play. I didn’t like the looks of the 3B board after Prado so I reached a bit for him.
7.04. Alex Gordon. OF KC
Best available player by a long shot in my opinion very undervalued. .Didn’t consider anyone else
8.13 Sergio Romo, RP- SF
This another reach but I am a SF fan and Romo supplies good WHIP and High K’s for the innings he pitches and he should have a lot of save ops with Giants Actually wanted Lincecum here and considered Kennedy.
9.04 Ian Kennedy SP Arizona
Ok I already hate my team but I can’t neglect SP any longer. Kennedy is an inning eater but hardly an ace of staff candidate. .
10.13 B. Anderson, SP Oak
Total risk pick- could be ace of staff or DL for 4 months and I don’t think the A’s are a very good team anyway but time to take chances with this team.
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| 6 | Aman
ID: 24111108
Wed, Mar 20, 2013, 16:06
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Draft Slot #8
6.9 #89 Victor Martinez – Det C - Hitting behind Cabrera and Prince Fielder gives Martinez a ton of RBI opportunities. His catcher eligibility was the reason for the pick. Getting solid production from that position is a plus in a league of this size.
Pick I like the best in this round besides mine: Konerko – I've had him a long time in another keeper league and he produces. The old dog may still have some life left in him.
7.8 #104 Tim Linecum – SF SP Can he bounce back? He was brutal to his owners last week. His high K total and potential wins hopefully will offset his WHIP and ERA. It is a risky pick but it has upside.
Pick I like best in this round besides mine: Jose Altuve
8.9 #121 Melky Cabrera – Tor OF – Had Melky last year in RIBC AA and he was the sleeper pick of the draft at the time of his suspension. Know we all know why. Assuming his skills don’t fall off dramatically (which I don’t see), he should be a solid producer in all 5 offensive categories.
Pick I like best in this round besides mine: Carlos Gomez – Had a solid 2nd half last year and could very well continue that into this year.
9.8 #136 Rafael Betancourt – Col RP – The run on closers was going and I had my eye on Betancourt. I didn’t think he would last until my next pick so I grabbed him. I like his low whip and era numbers. He’s the guy in Colorado so he should rack up the saves as well.
Pick I like best in this round besides mine: Granderson – If he doesn’t miss much time, could be a solid producer as a huge discount.
10.09 #153 Dan Haren - Wash SP – I was very happy to get Haren as my #3 starter. Solid stats in K’s and ERA categories but with the move to Washington, he could get a mid teen’s win total. I like that a lot.
Pick I like best in this round besides mine: Frieri – I was hoping he would keep falling but alas it was not meant to be.
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| 7 | judy
Dude
ID: 7771722
Wed, Mar 20, 2013, 16:51
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6.10 BRANDON MORROW SP TOR
At this point I wanted another SP, not sure why, I just did. No other position jumped out at me.
He is the 26th SP taken and I just figured it was time. I REALLY WANTED Chapman, but TD took him at 6.08 -- oh, so close! Morrow has been listed as a potential “break out” SP, but health is an issue. Still, I am expecting about 200 K, a dozen W, a WHIP in the teens and just a middling ERA(3.5). We shall see. He is the #2 starter after Dickey.
7.07 ELVIS ANDRUS SS TEX
Wow, had a Q of Trumbo, A Cabrera and Andrus. Trumbo and Cabrera went to Fosten and mmilkula, respectively. Darn. And then TD took Aybar two picks later. I consider SS to be a weak position, which is why I grabbed him earlier than he really warrants in the overall scheme of things.
Elvis will be Okay but would have preferred the HR and RBI of Cabrera and Trumbo over the SB (25) and R (90) of Andrus. I also worry that he might be traded to a crummy team once Profar shows up...Oh well, I think he is better than the other SS options at this point. Phooey. Might need to get a back up at the end of the draft just in case...
8.10 ADAM LAROCHE 1B WASH
Not sure just what I am doing here, but wanted to double up either the CI or MI position. Really wanted Hosmer, but Vampire grabbed him way up at 7.11. No chance there. The remaining 3B did not look so hot, so I went with the next best 1B. If he performs like last year, I’ll be OK. Two managers still do not have a 1B and four do not have a 3B, which is why I wanted to get my CI now. A line of 25 HR, 100 RBI and 70 R would be nice. And he is on a good team.
9.07 DOM BROWN OF PHL
Well it was looking pretty empty there with NO OF yet, so it was time to grab one. Dom is having a hellava spring training. Perhaps he will burst out this year. He’s as good as any of the ones left IMHO. I had to make sure that TD and mjd did not jump ahead of me to grab him. He is not even on the top 300 lists I am using. He is our #31 OF, with some decent guys still left on the board. Is he a “steal?” Time will tell. This is a homer pick with a great upside. Stay healthy, my man!
10.10 ANIBAL SANCHEZ SP DET
Time for some more starting pitching, my third guy. This pick (our #35 SP) and the next (CJ Wilson) reflect that. Sanchez plays for a winning team, and has been a pretty consistent stat guy. Looking for a dozen W, 160 K and a medium WHIP and ERA. He is the # 3 guy behind Verlander and Scherzer.
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| 8 | Andy
ID: 8102711
Wed, Mar 20, 2013, 18:44
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6.15(95) Roy Halladay SP, PHI
Had Rios as the best value if he made it to me. I was also tempted to jump on a closer at this point, but felt like I could wait and see what Zen did on the turn.
7.02(98) Ike Davis 1B, NYM
Considered Alex Gordon, but filled a bigger need with a 1B. Elected to wait on RP. Hope it doesn't burn me.
8.15(127) John Axford RP, MIL
The closer run is in full effect now and I didn't completely miss out. Looks like Davis was the right pick last round, since Trumbo, Hosmer, and LaRoche were all picked this turn. Now it was just a matter of getting the best option at RP. I went back and forth between Axford and Street. Street has the better numbers, but doesn't have the Ks and is always an injury concern. Hoping Axford can find the strike zone again and hold the job all season.
9.02(130) Curtis Granderson OF, NYY
I was probably taking an OF here anyway and I felt the injury discount was good enough at this point. I figured there was little chance he would still be available at 159. If he returns to form, I got a great bargain for the bulk of the season. If not, I'll lament the missed opportunity to get Ian Kennedy as my SP3. Hoping one of the other healthy OF's that I passed on here will still be available at the next turn.
10.15(159) David Ortiz UTIL, BOS
Surprised to see him still available this late, so I dismissed my planned pick and added to my early season injury list. I again was considering OF support for Grandy and was surprised to see most of the guys I thought about last round were still there this time too. Maybe I'll get lucky and at least one of the will still be there in round 12.
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| 9 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Wed, Mar 20, 2013, 21:06
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6.08 Aroldis Chapman P, CIN
I am hoping that Chapman ends up being the Reds closer, but even as a starter he will still have plenty of K's. He will need to make some changes to his game such as using the change up more and dialing down the fastball if he ends up being the starter. This is a concern. If he is a closer, I think he will be one of the best in the game. I just wish the Reds would make up their mind about his role.
7.09 Erick Aybar SS, LAA
I didn't really want to take a MI this early, but my options were running out. Aybar is an average MI in OBP and SLG. I expect him to score more runs and steal more bases this season as he moves to 2nd in the lineup.
8.08 Joel Hanrahan RP, BOS
Closers were falling off the board, so I felt a need to get one here. Hanrahan has a very good K rate, and decent WHIP and ERA numbers for a closer. I expect around 40 saves.
9.09 Chris Davis OF, BAL
Davis had his best MLB season in 2012. He appeared to make some adjustments at the plate to make himself a better hitter. 80 runs, 100 rbis, and .850 OPS is possible in 2013. OF and 1B eligibility is a plus.
10.08 Angel Pagan OF, SF
Pagan has some speed and will get around 30 SB and score around 90 runs while not being real weak in power numbers or OBP. Still don't have a 2B, but didn't like anyone enough to pick here.
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| 10 | mmikulka
ID: 512421618
Thu, Mar 21, 2013, 02:10
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6.11 Shin-Soo Choo, OF, CIN
Choo is above average in all 5 categories, but is utterly outstanding at getting on base, with a lifetime OBP of .381. Add in the fact that he just moved to Cincinnati (where he’s batting leadoff), and I wouldn’t be surprised to see his R and RBI numbers rise.
7.06 Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, CLE Ehh… Asdrubal Cabrera’s ok. He has moderate power for his position, should be good for 10 steals, and probably won’t hurt me in any category. Given that I had no interest in Andrus (career OBP under .700), he was pretty much my only viable option if I was going to have a respectable SS.
8.11 Jim Johnson, RP, BAL Getting saves is important. Really really important. Johnson will probably put up mediocre K/9 numbers, and I’m not expecting him to come anywhere near 50 saves again this season, but last year should at least give Johnson extra job security, only helped by the complete lack of viable closer options behind him.
9.06 Huston Street, RP, SD To help contrast Johnson, I took Huston Street. When he plays he’s spectacular (and was really good even in Colorado). Playing in San Diego certainly helps, and maybe this will be the season he stays healthy… even if not, if he gets me 20-25 saves, that will do.
10.11 Jose Veras, RP, HOU It’s all about the saves… the only viable reason to have Jose Veras on your team! There were plenty of better pitchers available at this point, but nobody that I viewed as the unequivocal closer except Veras. Plus, even if Houston goes 40-122 this year, will they really ever be able to score more than 3 runs? Every win is a save situation!
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| 11 | Jseth33
ID: 482302115
Thu, Mar 21, 2013, 16:31
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6.06 Mariano Rivera, RP NYY - Planning on watching much of his last season so he might as well accumulate some stats for me. Hard to know exactly what to expect coming off the injury and the sketchy line-up the Yanks are apparently going to roll with, but I think the stats will be there.
7.11 Eric Hosmer, 1B, KC - That was just a sophomore slump, right? Please tell me I am right...anyone?...anyone?
8.06 Greg Holland, RP, KC - Solid closer once he was given the chance.
9.11 Kendrys Morales, 1B, SEA - My cousin is the lead singer for Vampire Weekend hence the team name I have been using in various guru formats (started after I first saw them in a club with approximately 8 other people and that number might be high). They were in Austin for SWSX so I loaded up the family truckster and headed that way. Saturday night they played a show which ended at approximately 1:30 am. Sunday, they taped an episode of Austin City Limits (check you local listings in September) and I made this pick shortly after driving 3 1/2 hours home, checking the draft, and 'deciding' to move things along. In short, I was too tired and suffering other effects to fully be able to explain this pick.
10.06 Michael Young, 3b PHI - See explanation for pick 9.11.
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| 12 | maspero
ID: 56210205
Mon, Mar 25, 2013, 09:12
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6.05 Jordan Zimmerman, SP, WAS
I Needed SPs, and J.Zimm is a young pitcher, just hitting his prime, who provides not many Ks, but good numbers all over the board, hopefully also wins, playing a very good team.
7.12 Matt Wieters, C, BAL
Here I was locked in on Eric Hosmer, but unfortunately youngroman picked him just before me. So I went to catcher, with wieters being quite high on many mock drafts. In hindsight, considering how low good catcher were picked, I could have gone for an established closer like Nathan, who I considered in the top tier among closers.
8.05 Brett Gardner, OF, NYY
Since the best closers were gone, I decided to wait some more for saves, shifting my attention on OBP / steals, which I lack year in / year out. Runs I don’t know, considering the leftovers on the Yankee lineup …
9.12 Grant Balfour, RP, OAK
Finally I decided to hit the saves button, going for a man that after he regained the closer job (exactly after I dropped him …), ran away with it sporting great numbers. If he is 75% how he was last year, I’ll be more than happy.
10.05 Howard Kendrick, 2B, ATL
Here I finally acknowledged the fact that I had three 2b/ss spots to fill, even if there were OFs/SPs that I liked a lot. So I bit my tongue and went for the middle infielder I liked most, hoping he will provide double digit hrs/steals and a respectable OBP.
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| 13 | GO
ID: 120252515
Mon, Mar 25, 2013, 15:10
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6.01 Soriano, Rafael RP WAS
Was hoping to lock up some closers early. I hate chasing saves and I also hate taking closer in teh first 10 rounds... but I saw a big drop of after these guys. Although Motte's injury still has me scrambling a bit. Hopefully its not a major deal. 80 picks in and no hitters. Thats gotta be a record, right?
7.16 Beltran, Carlos OF STL
My first hitter. So obviously I'm going with a pitching heavy team. Not sure why Beltran's name stuck out at the time of the draft, but I like the solid production across the board even though he's older. I think some of the old guys slip just because they are old, not necessarily production.
8.01 Gomez, Carlos OF MIL
Wanted to make sure I got a SB guy without taking killing my team SLG ability... and this guy should be good for 20+ combined HR's and triples.
9.16 Samardzija, Jeff SP CHC
Thought the strikeout artist was a good value here. No hitter was really jumping out at me and he could be a lottery ticket 5th starter type.
10.01 Dunn, Adam 1B CHW
Dunn in an OBP league is usually a good pick. If he can just keep his AVG up to .250 or so then he provides great power numbers elsewhere. I always seem to wind up with this guy and am glad to have him and his walks.
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| 15 | twilson
ID: 221142214
Fri, Apr 12, 2013, 18:41
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see rationales 1-5 thread for my 6.02 Rizzo pick
7.15 Shane Victorino, OF, BOS
8.02 Joe Nathan, RP, TEX
The starters continued to leave the board appropriately, and I again saw no value there. Had any of the guys I considered at the 5/6 turn made it back around, I would’ve taken them. Rickie Weeks was also a guy I would’ve strongly considered here. It was clear that a closer run would be happening before my next set of picks, so I knew I wanted to grab at least one, if not two.
Joe Nathan and Sergio Romo were my standouts. I have loved Romo’s skills for many years, but the Giants have always seemed hesitant to trust him with a high workload, and he has a very short track record in the closer role. Nathan is 38 and only two years removed from a somewhat poor year following TJ surgery, but rebounded nicely in the Texas sun in 2012. Given the injuries to all his potential usurpers and his proven skills, I consider Nathan to have one of the more secure closer roles in baseball. As much as I would like to, I cannot say the same about Romo, so I made the decision to only take Nathan. With Great One having gone RP/RP last time around, I felt pretty comfortable that I could wait on Nathan until my 8th rounder, and I was correct.
Outfield seemed to offer the clear best value to me on the hitting side of things. I thought about Carlos Gomez (/bad OBP/one-year wonder?), Beltran (injury risk), Gardner (unwillingness to pay extra for SB), and Melky (lack of track record) before going with Victorino. His drop in SLG last year is concerning to me, but if he continues stealing bases like he did last year, I won’t care a bit. In a SLG league, Fenway’s moderate depression of HR is more than offset by the significant increase in doubles, so the move from PHI/LA to Boston could be quite beneficial. He’s a guy I often end up owning; if I’m still open to it after all these years, why stop now?
9.15 Chase Utley, 2B, PHI
10.02 Kenley Jansen, RP, LAD
17 of the 28 picks since my last pair were closers, so that position is now very shallow. It makes me wonder if my luxury pick of an early catcher was the smart decision, as otherwise I would’ve gone with Gordon in the 6th and Romo instead of Victorino in the 8th. Only time will tell. Despite his lack of status as the closer, Kenley Jansen is my top-ranked reliever due to his stellar K numbers. I feel he would be worthy of this draft slot if he adds 5-10 saves to go with his projected ERA/WHIP/Ks.
I also lack a 2B, and Utley is very appealing despite the injury risk. This late in the draft, I don’t think I’m paying for any more than his production in the last couple years; and given his health thus far in spring training, I do believe that the potential for greater health does still exist. The injured thumb of Chase Headley also forced me to take a long look at the increasingly ugly pool of available 3B, where Todd Frazier stands out. His projections don’t hold a candle to the best remaining at certain other positions, but I am very skeptical that any third basemen will drop to a point where they become a value. Thus, I feel I should take the plunge sooner rather than later.
Also, as almost none were taken, starting pitchers are finally looking very good to me here. Haren, Fister, and Samardzija all have strong appeal, though in very different ways. Once again, I’m almost certain that everyone mentioned above will be taken before my next set of picks, with the possible exception of Jansen. In the end, I decided to take the two players I wanted most, rather than the ones I thought I “needed.” Thus, Utley and Jansen joined my squad.
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