| 0 |
Subject: RIBC AAA 2013 PCL #16-20 RATIONALES
Posted by: judy
- Dude [7771722] Wed, Mar 20, 2013, 15:04
EVEN MORE |
| 1 | Seattle Zen
ID: 3310162612
Fri, Mar 22, 2013, 21:07
|
When both Jed Lowry and Jhonny P come of the board, I absolutely have to take 16.16.256 Zack Cozart this round, even if it is somewhat of a reach, because I don’t like anyone else. He has a terrible walk percentage, he will have to hit .270 or above to not damage my OBP. But he slugs better than the average short, so if he can lift 20 over the fence, I can count on decent RBI and runs. Though he doesn’t steal, he is fast enough, let him lose, Dusty. He may also be the highest draft pick I have who I cut due to performance.
I really struggled to decide between Justin Ruggiano and 17.01.257 Cameron Maybin, really hoped to take Justin in the 18th. Maybin is certainly capable of stealing a ton of bases. I am hoping for more of his 2011 season where he had a OPS just north of 700 and 40 steals. Perhaps he is a post-hype sleeper and I can trade him sometime to a team short of steals.
Carlos Quentin could be very profitable, his health will decide. I am curious to see how Ryu does this season, liked the Wandy pick.
I took 18.16.288 Hisashi Iwakuma in the 24th round last year because, well, who cares who you take in the 24th. He started the season in the pen and was probably my first cut. I was happy to see that when he entered the rotation, he was quite good. I like the honesty you get out of Japanese players, he stated that he was overwhelmed at the beginning of last season and feels that his late year success and experience gave him the confidence this off season to have a strong year. I hope he is right.
Here is the thing about the fences coming in at Safeco: it will help, but just on some days. The real problem is – it’s usually damn cold. Batted balls don’t carry in cold air. The temperatures drop at night in Seattle to the 50s most of the baseball season, in April and May, they start in the 50s and drop from there. The closer fences will help with a few homers, obviously. What may be an interesting turn of events is what happens on hot day games. Those 5 or 6 games where the temperature all game is above 80. There may be a home run explosion. You may want to check the temp before deciding if you want to start a pitcher in Safeco.
19.01.289 Ryan Ludwick. Don’t know why he dropped so much in our league, he was long gone in other RIBCs. Guess y’all weren’t buy his outbreak. I told you I liked the Reds this year. Ryan will be a part of that Big Red Processor!
I queue up Mark Reynolds simply because he is the most value on the board and he almost makes it back to me. I need some high quality relievers who may inherit the closer role, really wanted Ryan Cook, nice pick maspero. 20.16.320 Matt Thornton and 21.1.321 Drew Storen both fit the bill. I did not plan to punt saves, I will need to be extra diligent in scouring save opportunities this season.
|
| 2 | Andy
ID: 8102711
Sat, Mar 23, 2013, 02:21
|
16.15(255) Derek Holland SP TEX
Consensus top SP left among my ranking sheets. Pitching in Texas will inflate his ratios a bit, but I'm hoping for decent K and W numbers to compensate.
17.02(258) Mark Teixeira 1B, NYY
Hoping he will return and give me 75-80% of his full season projections. We are starting to get into the rounds where the players are not likely to survive the whole season on your roster anyway, so worth taking a chance. I did pause before hitting confirm because I was considering Plouffe too.
18.15(287) Colby Rasmus OF, TOR
Insurance for my injury prone OF. I will need a fill-in for Granderson for the first month, and one can never assume a full season out of Cruz. Hopefully Rasmus can finally put together a full season of production with the new offense around him. Reddick was at the top of my queue after Plouffe came off the board, but I had little hope of him making it to me.
19.05(290) Yonder Alonso 1B, SDG
More insurance. This time to fill my CI until Teixeira can return. CI is pretty thin right now, with Plouffe, Jones, Chisenhall, and Pena all coming off the board this round. Jones would've been the pick had he made it to me.
20.15(319) Tyler Clippard RP, WAS
Solid middle reliever to help ratios and Ks. Maybe even an odd save or 2 as a bonus.
|
| 3 | TD
Leader
ID: 036331011
Sat, Mar 23, 2013, 11:37
|
16.08 Jeff Keppinger 2B, CWS
I plan to use Keppinger as my 3rd MI. He is expected hit near the top of White Sox lineup so his run production should go up. He also 3B and 1B eligible so can be used as a backup at those positions. He has a good OBP but doesn't have much power or speed.
17.09 Omar Infante 2B, DET
Infante will be used as a backup MI for my team. MI is a very thin position, so I decided to pick a backup here. Infante will get ABs while not putting up any impressive numbers.
18.08 Wei-Yin Chen SP, BAL
Decided to wait until now to get my 4th SP. Quality pitchers seem to be a little easier to find than other positions. Chen appears to be a workhorse who will give me decent stats. I expect some improvement in his 2nd U.S. season.
19.09 Ryan Doumit C, MIN
Need a catcher, and Doumit seemed the best available. He and Mauer will both be used as C/DH which should keep him fresh. He has good power numbers.
20.08 Vance Worley SP, MIN
Worley has pitched well when he was healthy in 2011. I attribute his problems last year to bone chips in his elbow that were removed in the offseason. He appears to have secured a spot in the Twins rotation.
|
| 4 | mjd
Leader
ID: 501381415
Sat, Mar 23, 2013, 14:54
|
I love the last 10 rounds of this draft. Fantasy gold or waver wire fodder?
15.03 Wade Miley, SP, AZ Really expected to make this pick before going to bed, but had enough similar ranked arms here to leave a 6 man queue before hitting the hay. Miley was second in my queue after Mike Minor. Minor was picked 2 spots after Rosario and 3 spots before Miley. Minor projects a higher K/9, but Miley projects better percentages and more wins. Among others considered were Trevor Cahill, Dempster, and Vogelsong.
16.14 Ichiro Suzuki, OF, NYY Still no 2B, the price of drafting 4 RP/closer types, I really don’t see anyone worthwhile at this point that I might draft who won’t be there next go-round, I’ll buy a ticket on the Ichiro bandwagon. Moving to the more lefty power friendly Bronx, he really turned his season around after the July trade, turning it into a nice 2 year paycheck. The guy’s a professional hitter, period. No predictions here, but I would be surprised by double digit HRs and 30 SB.
17.03 Sergio Santos, RP, TOR Looks like he’ll begin the season as the Jay’s closer. He’s been successful there before, so I’ll once again pass on a 2B yet again. And a possibility of holding on to the job if Jansson has a setback or flounders at this volatile position. His sweet K/9 make him a decent flier as the 259th player chosen.
18.14Brian Roberts, 2B, BALT My 1st 2B eligible player… and talk about a flier. Who knows what kind of production he’ll supply or how long he’ll stay healthy. Picking MI this late comes with low expectations. Might as well buy this lottery ticket.
19.03 Michael Saunders, OF, SEA He was part of my Ichiro queue and I still need an OF, so what the heck. A power/speed guy I don’t mind spending a 19th round pick on what might be.
20.14Maicer Izturis, 2B, TOR I’ve effectively ignored my 2B to the point of ridiculous, so I’ll take a chance on someone who the Jays lured with a generous contract to battle over the 2B job. Not sure he’ll nail it down, but he can also play SS and 3B to cover the unexpected, but inevitable injuries that always occur.
|
| 5 | Nerfherders
ID: 1511182416
Sat, Mar 23, 2013, 15:37
|
Still position hunting here, looking for bargains at OF and SP, and starting to finish up the pitching with RP's
16.03 Ryan Vogelsong, SP SFI really wanted Minor as my 4th SP, but I just wasn't in the right position in the draft to get him. Vogelsong I kind of took with a shrug. He's good but I keep thinking some day he will revert back into the Vogelsong of old. I picked him up late last year in one league and he was uninspiring. I'm obviously hoping he will continue to pitch well.
17.14 David Hernandez, RP AZ I knew I was going to take Hernandez here if he was still there. Perhaps a slight reach, but I wanted to make sure I had guaranteed saves just in case, considering the volatility of my other closers. A nice little handcuff that should pitch just as well as Putz.
18.03 Josh Reddick, OF OAK Was it a career year or has Reddick found his swing? We shall see. Certainly a better hitter in HR formats, but even here he seemed like kind of a steal considering the help he will bring to RBI and SLG. He wont help with OBP but I can make that up elsewhere.
19.14 Juan Pierre, OF MIA After looking at my projected stats I felt that I needed more steals, ideally without killing my OBP. I was somewhat surprised to see Pierre still here, who had a bit of a career resurgence last year and will start for the depleted Marlins. He'll give me 80 runs, .330 OBP, and 30 steals, at the expense of RBI and SLG, which I picked up with my last pick. My offense is coming together very nicely. I like everyone on the squad so far.
20.03 Sean Doolittle, RP OAK A reach for sure, but I had to make sure I had the first Doolittle to play in the majors on all of my teams this year. Besides that, he's actually an outstanding reliever, striking out 60 in 47 IP last year. He's also an amazing story, being a high 1B prospect and then reinventing himself as a pitcher after an injury.
|
| 6 | youngroman
ID: 3913664
Sat, Mar 23, 2013, 18:08
|
16.04 Jed Lowrie, SS, OAK
after considering him with my last pick he should be good enough for this pick too. the pool of middle infielders is getting thinner and thinner. I hope Lowrie lives up to the expectations. ESPN has him with a .342 OBP and .469 SLG with 64/68 runs/RBI. most other projections have him lower at around .330/.430 with 50 runs/RBI. I hope that he will perform more ESPN-like.
17.13 Brandon McCarthy, SP, MIN
I only need 1 more outfielder and probably some backups on the hitting side. I believe this can wait, so I will focus more on the pitching side with the next few picks.
Since I missed getting a 2nd closer I am in the search for one but out of the questionable situations none went in the favor of an undrafted player yet. I'll probably need to guess at some point and get lucky during the season. so it was time to get some more starters for the hunt for 1350 innings. I am still missing at least 2 to get to this threshold. I hoped that maybe Julio Teheran could make it here, but this was not the case. next in line was Brandon McCarthy. he should get me good ERA and WHIP for this draft pick. the K's are ok at this point and the wins can't really be predicted.
18.04 Wandy Rodriguez, SP, PIT
another starter. similar to McCarthy. he was basically the next one from my queue and nobody took him in the last 6 picks. he has a similar strikeout rate than McCarthy. lets see how healthy those 2 can stay.
19.13 Andy Pettitte, SP, NYY
since Jamie Moyer and Omar Vizquel aren't in the league anymore he is one now of the 10 oldest active players in baseball and competing with Mariano Rivera for the oldest active Yankee. he will be their 3rd starter and will eat up a lot of innings for them as long as he stays healthy. since the Yankees look weaker with the stick this year he may not get the run support that a Yankee pitcher is used to get, so his wins may be a bit lower than in the past. ERA/WHIP can still be expected to be lower than 3.80/1.30 which are averages that I expect out of any pitcher on my team. if this expectations are not met he will not be the oldest player on my team any more because he may then be the oldest player on waivers.
20.04 Peter Bourjos, OF, LAA
after some pitchers it was time to fill my last starting spot with one of the remaining outfielders. Peter Bourjos looks improved this spring but more important he should provide much needed steals for my team. I really need them. If he continues to play like this spring he will outperform all projections. but if this would be the case he would be long gone and not available at this point. so I have to fear that he only gets a .315 OBP and .400 SLG which is definitely not good for an outfielder, even drafted this low.
|
| 7 | mmikulka
ID: 512421618
Sun, Mar 24, 2013, 03:40
|
16.11 Trevor Cahill – SP, ARI
It had been 212 picks since I last took a SP, so I went with Cahill, who has steadily improved over the last few years. I don’t particularly like that he pitches half of his starts in Arizona, but he managed to do pretty well last year.
17.06 Carlos Quentin - OF, SD
I needed a 2nd startable OF badly at this point, and Quentin has a lifetime OPS of .841, which he actually bested by a lot last year despite moving to San Diego. Hopefully he waits at least until Chris Carter becomes OF eligible to go on his first DL trip.
18.11 Jon Jay - OF, STL
Last year Jon Jay piled up 19 steals with an OBP of .373. The OBP should drop a bit, but the steals should stay and the counting stats should rise a little bit with some extra playing time.
19.06 Luke Gregerson – RP, SD
Huston Street gets injured a lot. Gregerson did very well during Street’s 2nd DL trip last year, and I think we’ve seen the last of Dale Thayer trying to close games. While he’s waiting, Gregerson can help my ERA/WHIP/K categories.
20.11 Mark Reynolds – 1B, CLE
Yeah, he’s no longer 3B eligible, and has switched teams, but how on earth did Mark Reynolds fall this far? Seriously, how did that happen? He went with pick 89 last year. He’s still in his 20s and just hit 23 homers in only 450 AB with a decent OBP, and this was considered a “bad year”. I’m still a little confused by it.
|
| 8 | judy
Dude
ID: 7771722
Sun, Mar 24, 2013, 18:21
|
16.10 DENARD SPAN OF WASH
Time for some proven vets in the OF, especially if Wil starts the season in the minors. I think that playing for the Nats will improve his counting stats a ton. I am looking for 20 SB, 100 R and 50 RBI with a decent .285 BA. I actually had Revere and Cain ahead of him, but Air/WG took Ben at 16.07 and Fosten took Cain at 16.12. In retrospect I think I have the better deal… but it would have been fun to watch Ben at CB park.
17.07 DARIN RUF OF PHL
What am I doing here? Homer Pick. Don’t even know if he will make the opening season roster. Somebody though has to play the third OF position with D Young (loser) in the injury box. I am looking for Ruf to duplicate his power/SLG from the minors and to play a decent LF like Luzinski did (He can’t possibly be any worse...sorry Bull…) So now I have 4 OF, two of whom might start in the minors. OOPS! I think I get a little looney at this point in the draft, but there are important decisions still to be made, so I better concentrate on my next picks -- assuming my Q is not drained.
18.10 LOGAN MORRISON 1B/OF MIA
I had a long Q of players including Ruggiano, G Jones, Reddick, Puig who all disappeared onto other teams. This guy was a heralded rookie who has yet to pan out. The potential is there they say, so now he is categorized as a “sleeper”. Clever, those baseball guys… He is playing on a crappy team, but maybe he can discover a power stroke and hit 20 HR, with 86 RBI and 75 R. Who knows? And now I find out that he is not expected back until late April (knee). SHeesh.
19.07 ANDY DIRKS OF DET
Never heard of the guy until I was trolling for additional OF, since mine seem to be either young (starting season in the minors) or hurt. I had Viciedo, Rasmus, Ludwick, Alonso, and Saunders in my Q but ALL were taken! This guy has apparently “won” the LF job in DET. Depending upon what you decide to read he will lead off, bat 6th, score runs, have a .290’s average. So let’s call him a solid player and see what Leyland actually does with him. OK?
20.10 MARK BUEHRLE SP TOR
Time for a #5 starter. I actually had Worley at the top, but TD snatched him away! Buehrle will be the #3 behind Morrow (also on my team) and Dickey. He is not a great stat guy but he pitches for a good team and maybe he will get me some wins, and decent ERA and WHIP. He is not a K guy… oh, well. I needed another SP.
|
| 9 | GO
ID: 120252515
Mon, Mar 25, 2013, 15:20
|
16.01 241 Bonifacio, Emilio 2B TOR
More speed... and some positional flexibility. I know this team likely hang with most in the power categories but I hope to make up for that with SB's and R's. He'll eventually be a 2B/OF and that'll be useful for maximizing games. Damn AL East AGAIN. Didn't even realize. I still think of him as a Marlin.
17.16 272 Chisenhall, Lonnie 3B CLE
Sleep alternate young 3B to pair with Machado... post-hype sleeper potential? Hopefully.
18.01 273 Pena, Carlos 1B HOU
Already had Adam Dunn... why not add poor mans Adam Dunn for the heck of it. Will be kind of cool to have a Houston DH. Just hoping for good OBP and some power.
19.16 304 Beckham, Gordon 2B CWS
Post hype sleeper again? Maybe... hurting for MI help right now as I usually draft that much earlier and this is why. Slim pickins this far down for infielders.
20.01 305 Hicks, Aaron OF MIN
This was a late in the draft... this guy is hot in spring training lottery ticket. I know nothing about him other than he's a pretty decent prospect.
|
| 10 | Valkyrie
Dude
ID: 47042413
Mon, Mar 25, 2013, 18:37
|
16.13 Stephan Drew, Bost SS
Actually was holding my breath he would make it to me. MI very short at this point and I do believe he came make a reasonable comeback in Boston.
17.04 Franklin Gutierrez- OF Seattle
Completely a question of health . Could be a steal or a complete bust. Posting rationales makes me realize just how many chances I am taking with this team.
18.13- Dayan Viciendo- OF Chi A
At this point I am finding it hard to find quality picks. I really don’t know anything about this guy but Bernie Pleskoff mentioned him as having some potential as a sleeper .
19,04 Rick Porcello- Det SP
A bottom level SP fighting for the 5th spot in Detroit and having a good spring. Well worth a 19 if he holds on to the 5 spot. Worthless if he doesn’t.
20.13 AJ Pierznski- C- Texas
This guy is old as Methusala – a 38 yr old Catcher, I hate him from his Giant days and the horrendous trade that got him there . I am only hoping he can make it 50 games before I can dump him for my real cather who I really really hope is still there 7 picks from now.
|
| 11 | Aman
ID: 24111108
Mon, Mar 25, 2013, 22:20
|
16.09 #249 Jason Kubel Ari Of - I was super surprised Kubel lasted this long. He’s been drafted in 10 Draftime leagues and his ADP is 200. My pick at 249 was the lowest of the 10 drafts. He can really help with most stats so I’m not sure why he lasted this long.
17.08 #264 Trevor Plouffe Min 3b - Before the Kubel pick, I was hoping that Machado would fall to that pick. I didn’t have anyone at 3b so I took Kubel and then filled a need with Plouffe. I don’t expect much from him but hope springs eternal.
18.09 #281 Jonathan Broxton Cin P- – At the time, it had not been announced that Chapman was going to be the closer. I knew it was a risk to take Broxton but I was already going to take some closer handcuffs. I took him at draft #281 which is the latest pick for him in 10 drafts so I don’t feel he was a wasted pick. A lot could happen with Chapman during the season.
19.08 #296 Chris Nelson 2B & 3B Col – Filled a need with 2b and 3b eligibility. I fully expect him to get pushed out by Arenado at some point during the season.
20.09 #313 Kelly Johnson TB 2B - Another need filler. He will get playing time with Tampa. I expect him to be an average performer and hopefully not hurt. If he gets a few steals, that will help.
|
| 12 | maspero
ID: 56210205
Wed, Mar 27, 2013, 08:45
|
Yawwwwn … c’mon Judy, do you really want me to dissect my next picks ? Must I ?
From now on I simply tried to pick upside guys.
16.05 Jhonny Peralta, SS, DET
I needed a third infielder. If only Peralta could regain some form from 2011 ... in that power lineup …
17.12 Garrett Jones, 1B-OF, PIT
I needed a corner infielder, and Jones could provide cheap power.
18.05 Clay Buchholz, SP, BOS
I needed a fifth starter, and Buch was the most appealing left in the pool.
19.12 Andrew Bailey, RP, BOS
Hanrahan the “closer” in Boston, c’mon, really, for how much time ? He is a time bomb destined to detonate. And when dust will settle, Bailey will be the closer !
20.05 Ryan Cook, RP, OAK
I have high hopes for Balfour (9.12), but if he would get injured, or dealt, why not get his heir apparent ? who, by the way, is a really good pitcher ?
|
| 13 | Jseth33
ID: 412412713
Wed, Mar 27, 2013, 14:41
|
16.06 Jackie Bradley OF, BOS Hoping for a lottery ticket win here. Strong spring trying to force himself into the plans sooner rather than later.
17.11 Jordany Valdespin OF, NYM See reasoning for 16.06.
18.06 David Robertson RP, NYY Mariano insurance.
19.11 Luis Cruz SS, LAD Shortstop eligibility - may start at third. Not really sure what to expect.
20.06 Kyle Lohse SP, STL Knew he was going to sign somewhere. Figured it was time.
|
| 14 | twilson
ID: 221142214
Fri, Apr 19, 2013, 19:04
|
17.15 Daniel Murphy, 2B, NYM
More MI went off the board after my last set of picks than I had been expecting, and Daniel Murphy was the only remaining member of his tier that survived the purge. He is currently injured and very questionable for opening day, but the performance drop to the next guy on my list is high enough that it doesn’t matter.
18.02 Hyun-Jin Ryu, SP, LAD
I had considered Ryu at the 15/16 turn, so I was surprised to see him still available. Despite the glut of starting pitching that the Dodgers have, Ryu seems to be very much in their rotation plans. His spring has been good, and no other pitcher on the board offers the same type of upside here. And when I’m drafting the bulk of my rotation in the second half of our draft, upside is everything. I also looked at Wandy Rodriguez.
19.15 Shelby Miller, SP, STL
20.02 Nolan Arenado, 3B, COL
I was away from my research materials when my turn came around for these picks. I didn’t have anyone in particular that I liked, so I deferred to my father’s experience and took the two youngsters he had been recommending to me. Miller has excellent strikeout potential, but needs to improve his control or his WHIP will be a little scary. Arenado plays for the Rockies at a position of need, especially if Carpenter doesn’t end up playing as much as I think he will.
|
|
|
|
Post a reply to this message: RIBC AAA 2013 PCL #16-20 RATIONALES
|
|