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Subject: RIBC AAA 2013 PCL DRAFT RECAP
Posted by: judy
- Dude [7771722] Mon, Mar 25, 2013, 14:39
IF you you would like to do one, here is a model you can follow:
1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
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| 1 | Nerfherders
ID: 161121811
Mon, Mar 25, 2013, 16:12
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
The strategy has been the same for the last several years. Best available in the first 10 rounds except for the closer run, hunt positions/stats in 11-20, and figure out what my bench is in 21-25. 5 SP, 6 RP is my standard pitching staff. I executed very well. My only weakness right now is probably the back end of my rotation, but that is potentially the easiest thing to fix. But generally I had a fantastic draft, especially on offense. I have a great mix of power and speed, OBP and SLG. I might be a little over-speedy than I usually go for, but I don't forsee that being a huge deal.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
This is probably going to doom me, but I like almost every pick I made in this draft. It's crazy. Favorites: Willingham in the 8th, Rutledge in the 12th, McCann in the 15th, Pierre in the 19th. The only picks I wish I could get back was League in the 10th and Alburquerque in the 24th, only because Boggs was there, but I didn't know yet. I think League is going to lose his job at some point this year. I'm just hoping it's July instead of May.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I like mmikula's (sp?) because he drafts very similar to me. I find GO's draft very intriguing. 6 pitchers in the first 6 rounds. If you wanted to make sure you got 7th place and then bought lottery tickets for the rest of the draft, it might be the way to go. Otherwise, as always, these guys (and gal) are good, and everyone knows what they are doing after all these years. It should be a good season.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
GO's drafting strat kind of killed the SP pool in the 3rd/4th round, and guys that shouldve been there were not. That made me alter a bit what I was doing with my SP's. The back end of the draft (15+) seemed easier to manage than most years. That means that I either nailed it, or was totally off base with my picks and they are going to sink me.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Not really. Maybe more patient with closers once Cishek was off the board.
I had a great draft but I am still concerned with my SP's and with the relative age of my offense. All those guys are good hitters but they are mostly in their 30's, which means they could all fall off a cliff. I don't *think* that will happen, but it is a concern.
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| 2 | GO
ID: 120252515
Mon, Mar 25, 2013, 16:49
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My plan was to play around with over drafting pitching and trying to piece together a hitting lineup. I've always had some skill for finding hitters and seem to struggle with SP's and closers so thought I'd try a bit of an extreme strategy and see what happened.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I thought my best pick was Adam Eaton. But now he's hurt. So we'll see how that goes. Samardjiza and Cobb were good value SP picks and will be on the trading block after they hopefully prove themselves a bit (for some hitting).
I think I would have gone with MORE top tier SP's in the Motte/Soriano picks and just taken some scrub closers later. Their stats WHIP/ERA won't matter a whole lot when blended with the other SP's and I overlooked that a bit.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I like MJD's team if Braun doesn't get suspended. Same for the person that took Robby Cano... those guys have to be concerned all year.
I love the Trout/Pedroia duo of Robogooru-- thats normally how I build a squad but he's gotta be concerned about Halladay falling off even more and Greinke's sore elbow.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
That someone else would have a trio of Felix/Kershaw/Cain and I actually have significant competition for these pitching stats I was trying to dominate.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
I would have not picked the back to back -- which would have landed me Verlander. But even still it should be a lot of fun to watch Strasburg. I do get the Nationals game here in Delaware so I can enjoy watching him pitch as well as Cole Hamels.
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| 3 | Seattle Zen
ID: 3603123
Mon, Mar 25, 2013, 22:43
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
As I wrote in my rationales, I really wanted the top pick because I wanted to avoid all the third basemen who pale in comparison to Miggy. I have never drafted on the turn and I actually liked it. Could not harbor any illusions that someone who last 32 picks until about round 19. My strategy early was to draft bats and the starting pitching feeding frenzy certainly helped. I think when Guru posts his list of average pick for each player, our league will have a lot of earliest picked for pitchers and latest picked for bats simply because of the unusual strategy deployed by GO and mmkukla.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
I think I got real bargains with James Shields at 96 and Nick Markakis at 224. Nick and Mike Minor were two players I was watching fall to me Tuesday night and I went to bed with three picks to go, was so stoked to see I got them both in the morning. That said, I was totally unprepared for the shortstop run in the 15th and 16th. I'm also very happy with my Cameron Maybin at 257 and Ryan Ludwick at 289.
As much as I think Miguel Montero is an underrated catcher in this league with his outstanding OBP and rbis, I would take a closer at 129, either Wilhemsen, Street, Bentancort or Chris Perez. Hell, Wilin Rosario went 222!!! Montero really needs to produce because if I lose this league by two points in saves....
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
I input all the teams into a program with projections as the draft progressed and I must say, I have never looked so good on paper. Of course your team should look good when you do use a program like this, they are helping suggest who you should target. But I have actually been in second after a draft in the past. Not this year, it said I will walk away with this one. Second... Valkyrie. And while the draft unfolded, I was less than impressed with the route Aman was taking, what the hell is he going to do with is infield, he ended up third. Fosten and Judy did not fare well.
What surprised you most about the draft?
I don't know what surprised me more, that GO drafted Jeff Samardjiza when he had all of two bats, both outfielders, at pick 144, or that he mentions that as one of his favorite picks.
If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Even if I end up with only one of two points in saves, I could still compete. I avoided guys with injuries looming or injury histories like the plague. I took a few calculated chances, not a ton. I feel optimistic about this squad's chances.
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| 4 | mjd
Dude
ID: 501381415
Fri, Mar 29, 2013, 14:14
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
My draft strategy is always pretty fluid, if I’m lucky enough to draft in a position to even have one. Picking 3rd, I could afford to plan one. It’s pretty much the standard: pick hitters early, pretty much regardless of position, try and get 1 or 2 MIs early and wait as long as possible on pitching. The only real thing that I will change this year (for me) is that I’ll suck it up and draft closers whenever I must and not bitch about it. Yes, I’ll pay for saves. Last year, I passed on closers, hoping to get a couple via ww or trade. That didn’t pan out so good and I wound up with a 2 or 3 in saves and too many SPs. I spent most of the season near the top in wins and Ks, but found myself 50 IP over the limit by June. This year, I planned to draft at least 2 closers with fairly stable job security and go for 8th inning MRs with high K/9 rates. I wound up RP heavy with only 4 SPs, but I watch a ton of games and will have no problem finding SP matchups I deem favorable on the wire to hit the IP limit.
Drafting in the top 3 allowed me to act during the early rounds, rather than react. My strategy for the first 5 rounds was to draft 4 hitters and one SP, but only after the first dozen or so SPs were picked. Rounds 6-10 would be 2 hitters and 3 pitchers, at least 2 of which would be closers.
SPs going off fast and furious from the start had no effect on this plan and I even got lucky when the news broke about Jason Motte’s elbow issue and I drafted his heir apparent, Mitchell Boggs in rd 24. Fortunately, I remembered to check the latest player news upon awakening late that Saturday morning and making that 24th round pick. Who knows if he pans out? There were as many as 9 other managers who potentially could have taken him (4 were on auto pick), but definitely worth a 24th round flier. I had an undrafted SP set to be picked there, hence my 4 SP’s and the extra RP.
On paper, I succeeded in implementing that plan, in reality; only time will tell. All player projections are just that: projections based on previous performances, expected improvement or decline based on age and ideal health conditions. Risk is not 100% predictable, but there were several players drafted that I wouldn’t have touched with a 10 foot pole. After this season, Hanley Ramirez is my poster child of players I’ll never draft again. Burned me twice now, so shame on me.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
My favorite pick is that unassuming, as yet unknown, mid to late rounder that comes out of nowhere and has a breakout season. Whether that guy is on or winds up on my roster remains to be seen. Of the players that I did draft that were my favorites were Castro, Dickey, and Freddie Freeman in the 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds. Kyle Seager in the12th will be relied on with Freese starting out the season on the DL, and HanRam out for 2 months. The more I think about it, the more I tend to agree with Zen about the Rosario pick at 14.14. The consolidated draft summary also agrees, as his RIBC ADP was 3 full rounds earlier than I drafted him. Ichiro in the 16th, Saunders in the 19th, and Colvin in the 22nd, could all last on my team longer than most of those late picks do on teams of mine in this format in past seasons. I’m not afraid to pull the trigger on free agents who start the season hot. I’m typically among the impatient owners who lead the league in transactions. This year I aimed to have a better draft and allow me a bit more patience with my initial team. Immediately after drafting HanRam, I experienced buyer’s remorse and he proved me correct in getting injured in the championship round of the WBC. So put him on the do over list. I should have followed my gut and just completely ignored him. Would definitely have been better served filling my gaping hole at 2B with Pedroia instead.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Although I am cognizant of other teams picks, and do refer to the Draftime draft grid frequently, I don’t evaluate other teams as a whole, since over the years, I’ve seen success with various strategies.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
I guess waking up late on Saturday morning and reading about the Motte situation and having his apparent backup fall into my lap in the 24th round. I’m not usually that lucky. Fortunately, it was late in the draft on a weekend and half of the other teams with a shot at him were autopicks. Though if Motte falters, I think Trevor Rosenthal, who I drafted in round 22, with his 100 mph fastball might fare well in the closer role, should the job situation become unsettled. Funny thing was, I was targeting a specific undrafted SP in rd 24 and already had my rationale outlined in my head. Only my tenuous infield situation prevented me from choosing him as my last pick. Otherwise, really nothing. Even with SPs going early and often, my plan of drafting my first SP after the first dozen or so got picked didn’t change since it really didn’t matter to me which of the first 5 picks I used to get one.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Other than changing the Hanley for Pedroia pick, nothing. It was public knowledge that Freese was having back issues, and knowing full well how that malady can linger, I drafted him anyway. No regrets Unlike most years, I like my team and don’t feel an urgent need to scour the waver wasteland for early replacements, though I’m not well known for my patience and won’t hesitate to pull the trigger if I think a change will improve my team.
Thanks to Judy for her usual stellar job as commish and Guru for hosting these leagues and for anyone reading this it’s time for a donation to the site.
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| 5 | twilson
ID: 221142214
Wed, Apr 24, 2013, 14:54
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1. What was your plan/strategy entering the draft? Were you able to execute as you had planned?
As usual in the RIBC, my general strategy is to simply follow the value wherever it may lead. In a 16-team league as competitive as this one, I find it a fool’s errand to pre-plan the draft. I guess it can be viable if one is very confident in one’s own scouting ability, but that is very much not my approach or skillset.
I did have some general tendencies that I expected to follow, given my strengths and weaknesses as a fantasy manager. I am typically able to find some diamonds in the rough at SP both late in the draft and midseason, so I like to minimize the resources I invest in high-end starters. Last year, however, I took it a bit too far and wasn’t able to recover, so I planned to draft at least one SP in or before the 6th.
My biggest new priority in 2013 was to emphasize health, particularly in the early going. There is little more frustrating than having to dedicate one or more of our precious bench slots to an injured star. The missed PA and IP really start to add up in the counting categories, an area where I have typically lagged in the past.
I believe I was able to execute my plan effectively. Picking near a turn made it simpler for me to concentrate on value, as I knew that pretty much every player I was considering would not survive the 28-pick wait to my next pair. Despite my emphasis on health, 4th-rounder Chase Headley did break his thumb in the midst of the draft, proving that injuries are never fully escapable. The injury did somewhat limit me in the middle rounds, as I felt the need to take a backup 3B earlier than I would have liked.
Verlander in the 1st certainly fit with my initial plan, but I can’t say I had envisioned it. Given the early focus on SP by Mikulka and GO, I think it worked to my advantage. I was just as aggressive as last year with the rest of my rotation, which certainly could come back to bite me, but I feel comfortable with the offense vs. pitching choices I made throughout.
2. What were your favorite picks? What picks would you like to do over?
Do overs? I would take Estrada over Niese in the 12th. A second closer would’ve likely been more valuable than Victorino at the 7/8 turn, but given how happy I am with my draft after that point, I don’t know that I’d want to take the chance that things would have worked out differently later on. Fiers in the 15th was a bust, but my thought process was sound, and going 3 for 4 on SP in rounds 15-20 is a good hit percentage.
In the moment, my favorite picks were Zobrist at #47 and Hyun-Jin Ryu in the 18th. The Matt Carpenter pick was one of my least favorite when I made it, but it grew on me over the course of the draft, and now I am delighted with his skills and four-position eligibility. It also helps that the other guy I was eyeing (Parker) has not had the sharpest start to his season.
3. Looking over all of the teams, which ones do you like the most (other than your own)?
Seattle Zen has a lot of guys I considered, especially Cabrera up front and his collection of bargain outfielders. I like the first half of WG’s draft a bunch but am less enamored with his mid- to end-game. Nerfherders did some good things, and it led to a nicely balanced roster.
4. What surprised you most about the draft?
Definitely Great One going SP/SP/SP/SP/RP/RP. It was a happy surprise, as I wouldn’t have been taking pitchers then anyway, and his picks on the turn became easy for me to predict. I already spend far too much time debating my selections, so it was nice to have that headache removed from the process. There was the usual smattering of reaches, particularly for prospects, but that happens every year and wasn’t particularly surprising.
5. If you could start the whole thing over, would you do anything differently?
Other than Estrada over Niese? No. I was happy with my draft, and the early results suggest that I was right to feel that way. I will be light in saves and will need to be on the lookout for pitching support all season long, but in a 16-team league, weaknesses are unavoidable. Here’s hoping I can turn this draft into a return trip to the big league!
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| 6 | GO
ID: 120252515
Wed, Apr 24, 2013, 15:17
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If you didn't take Zobrist I was going to take him with one of those picks it would have changed my whole draft. I definitely wouldn't have taken both closers. Still regretting taking closers at all in that spot. Then tacking on that Motte is hurt that pick was a complete waste.
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