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Subject: RIBC AAA PCL 2014 RATIONALES #1-5
Posted by: Judy
- [54203110] Sat, Mar 08, 2014, 12:29
Time for rationales.
For this round, first please list your draft position and tell us why you chose it.
We do rationales in sets of 5, so this set should be ready to go!
For the players use this format:
1.01 Mike Trout OF LAA
Seriously? Do you really need me to give you a reason for drafting this 5 tool superstar?
(Provide as much detail as you wish.) |
| 1 | youngroman
ID: 57047243
Sun, Mar 09, 2014, 09:01
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now that we are in the 7th round, I'll start:
draft pick #2
I got a bit lucky this year and was 3rd to select my draft pick. based on history this would mean that the earliest available pick will be #3. my priority looked like 1-2-4-3 because the draft goes Trout-Cabrera and then either McCutchen or Goldschmidt. after that there is a slight dropoff. turned out that #2 was available so I settled for Cabrera.
1.02 Miguel Cabrera, 3B, DET
he is simply the best player available. he provides far above the average in 4 of 5 categories. that is also the reason why he is not the #1 pick. he is missing the steals of Trout but has slightly better power numbers and is more proven.
2.15 Yasiel Puig, OF, LAD
I am not used to waiting for that long to make a pick and then I have 2 within 4, so I need to decide which of the players considered here are more likely to be taken in these 2 picks and which ones may survive. since we are early in the draft this is harder to figure out because there are too many holes to fill.
with 7 picks to go my short list included: Gomez, Freeman, Puig and Reyes. I hoped that 1 would survive for this pick and that I would take a starting pitcher at 3.02. turned out that Puig and Reyes survived so I had to make a decision. I took Puig simply because he should have the better overall numbers. Reyes might be better in SB, but not by that much. On the other side Reyes plays at SS which is always tough to get considering that you also have to fill a MI slot.
3.02 J Reyes, SS, TOR
I am somehow surprised that Reyes is still out there. This changed my plan on deciding for a starter. Reyes it is. I hope he bounces back after all the missed games last season and the games where he was not yet 100 percent. at least according to him. I read somewhere that a season with less than 40 stolen bases in 2014 would be a disappointment for him. I'd say a season with less than 30 SB's would disappoint me.
4.15 Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, LAD
Price, Bumgarner, Greinke, Verlander, Sanchez. These are the best pitchers available at this point. in that order. when my pick was up 3 of them were still left, so I am able to pass on a pitcher here and take a remaining one at 5.02.
This is because there is 1 hitter that fits my team and who should have stats similar to real-life and fantasy teammate Yasiel Puig. he is behind him in SB and a bit in SLG, which is just fine considering the 2 round difference.
I am now settled at 3 of 4 primary infield spots. 3B is thin this year and the depth at 1B was also better in the past. I did not reach for any of them, so I feel myself in good shape.
5.02 Zack Greinke, SP, LAD
mjd took none of the 3 pitchers that I considered so I had to make the decision myself and simply took the pitcher that I think will be the best. based on my current knowledge this is Greinke. he should provide a strikeout per inning which is important for your #1 starter and probably also for the #2. I have 50 percent of that goal achieved with this pick and will probably complete my duo with one of my next 2 picks.
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| 2 | MattG
ID: 161331619
Sun, Mar 09, 2014, 23:02
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1.06 Ryan Braun OF Mil
When I chose my draft pick I wanted to stay close to the top of the draft, or I wanted to be at the very bottom. At 6 I thought I could get Braun, Cargo or possibly Goldy if he fell. I didn't want Hanley at this point. Braun should excel at all 5 cats, hoping for 20 steals.
2.11 Joe Mauer 1B,C Min
Total homer pick here, I'm a huge twins fan. That and Mauer's healthiest season was his 2009 mvp year. With the move to 1B Mauer should be able to play 150+ games and stay relatively healthy. Not sure if we will see .365 28 and 100, but a .400+ obp 90+ runs and 80+ rbis will suffice for a 1B/C eligible player.
3.06 Felix Hernandez SP Sea
Third round in these drafts tends to be when the pitcher runs happen and I wanted to get a stud this year. I typically don't draft SPs till after rounds 4/5 but this was too good to pass up. Seattle's offense should be better this year, giving him more run support, resulting in more wins.
4.11 Jason Heyward OF Atl
Heyward gives me two stud OFs, probably 100 runs, maybe 70 RBIs. His OBP will be comparible to Braun and his SLG should be higher than Mauer. Also a possibility of double digit steels.
5.06 Justin Verlander SP Det
Got great value with this pick, hoping he's back to his old self this year and puts up stats comparable to King Felix. Could have gone 2B/SS/3B here as those positions are thin, however looking at what I could draft in round 5 as compared to 6-11 it didn't seem like the drop off was that much. However a stud comparable to Verlander in round 5 instead of settling for a Latos or a Wacha in later rounds just seemed like a better deal at this point.
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| 3 | KDogHall
ID: 5253109
Mon, Mar 10, 2014, 10:53
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Troy Tulowitzki (1.13)
When I saw I had 13 I was hoping I would get Hanley. When I saw he wasn't available I already had in my head wanting a top SS for my team. The year I won I had a killer MI and last year when I was eliminated from RIBC I had major issues at MI. I've been bitten by Tulo's frequent injury bugs before, but if people we guaranteed he would be healthy all year he'd be a top 5 pick. At the very least I know when he's healthy he'll produce big numbers in 4 categories.
Jason Kipnis (2.20)
I was between Encarnacion, Kipnis and Wright here. After having no choice about Encarnacion I was between Wright and Kipnis. I went with Kipnis for the strong MI and added steals as I think the 30 steals could come in handy based on the guys I am targeting throughout this draft.
Stephen Strasburg (3.13)
If Bautista had fallen to me he would have been a no brainer, but Tosh sniped him from me. I felt like after strasburg there was a slight drop to the next tier of pitchers and didn't like the other hitters available at the time.
Matt Kemp (4.04)
Early on in this draft I told myself that drafts are not won in the first four rounds, they can only be lost. Of course after saying that I've now drafted 3 highly injury prone players in the first 4 rounds. Kemp however is only two seasons removed from a top 3 season and those two seasons were due to what I'm hoping are injuries that have been fixed. If so, there is a chance for huge stats here including maybe 30+ steals. We'll see how it plays out.
Allen Craig (5.13)
And here I go with a 4th injury prone player in the first 5 rounds. I was between Pence and Craig here. I chose to go with Craig primarily for the 1B/OF flexibility. I like knowing that if a 1B or OF falls later in the draft I don't have to avoid them because that position is already full. On top of that, Pence is coming off a career year at 30 and rarely does the following year improve at that age. We also don't yet know Pence's spot in the batting order.
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| 4 | Judy
ID: 54203110
Mon, Mar 10, 2014, 15:03
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From bh:
Please post in the rationale thread.
1.09 Joey Votto, 1B, CIN
The 5th rated player on my board (after Trout, Miggy, Goldy, Cutch), it should go without saying that I was ecstatic to get Votto here. I said it anyway.
2.08 Giancarlo Stanton, OF, MIA
Big time power, he was the guy I was targeting for this pick. In RIBC, I take many more risks than in other leagues, and risking a bust from Stanton was well worth his ceiling, which might actually be higher than Votto's.
3.09 Justin Upton, OF, ATL
When he was a perennial first rounder, I never got to own Upton. Well, here we are. He's a steal in the third round.
4.08 Billy Hamilton, PR, CIN
Some people seem to think that Hamilton is a huge risk. I think he's going to be awesome. If he steals 120 bases, you've won the category right there. Honestly, what's his floor? A pinch runner 4 times a week, stealing 2 bases a week? That's 50 for the season. I don't think you can do much wrong with Hamilton, and happy to get him, even with the superstars still going in this round.
5.09 Kenley Jansen, RP, LAD
I looked at Matt Holliday. It's a crime that he was still available at 5.10, and I would have taken him if I didn't already have 3 outfielders and a first baseman. Time to look at pitching; closers are already moving, and Jansen is #1 on my board.
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| 5 | youngroman
ID: 57047243
Tue, Mar 11, 2014, 10:02
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since we are approaching round 12, here is my 2nd set of rationales:
6.15 Gio Gonzalez, SP, WAS
I again targeted a hitter and a pitcher with these 2 picks. when I looked at the remaining options at this point I did not see any player that fits my team. there were a few that matched a position I already drafted and I did not want to pick a 2nd 1B/3B/SS that early. not that any of these players would be better than the best available outfielders. I decided that I would pass on hitters with these 2 picks.
my SP list included Gonzalez, Shields, Zimmerman and Minor. In the end I settled for Gio with this pick. he should also provide me with about a K/IP but with a slightly higher ERA/WHIP than Bumgarner.
7.02 James Shields, SP, KC
like Bumgarner and Gonzalez, Shields is also capable of getting 200 strikeouts this year. This will not be the case for many pitchers and I now have 3 of them. This gives me the freedom to look at pitchers with a good ERA/WHIP without looking too much at strikeouts anymore. there will be some good value out there in the middle rounds to fill that need.
8.15 Jonathan Papelbon, RP, PHI
I now have 2 picks and then need to wait 28 picks until I am up again. I fear that there won't be many closers left at the end of the 10th round, so I better take 2 now and don't look at them in the near future unless a 3rd one can be had for cheap
You can't argue about Papelbon. This is his 9th season as a closer. he has no injury history and averages more than 35 saves in the last 8 seasons. I just expect him to do the same. I hope he rebounds from his poor 8.3 K/9. but I won't complain as long he is a steady source for saves.
9.02 Casey Janssen, RP, TOR
he had a better ERA/WHIP than Papelbon and most other closers available at this point. he gets a strikeout per inning and hopefully around 35 saves this year. what can you expect more from your closer.
10.15 Brandon Phillips, 2B, CIN
there are not too many 2B, SS or 3B left that provide above average stats in more than 2 categories. Phillips should be above in 2 (R, RBI), about average in 1 (SB) and below average in 2 (OBP, SLG). he is not far below because he is still projected to provide a OBP of 0.315 and a SLG of .410 and there are numerous players out there that are worse and that don't get the counting stats that Phillips does. finding a good MI will be tough this year.
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| 6 | Jaydog
ID: 366501612
Tue, Mar 11, 2014, 10:56
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1.14 - Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL
Didn't think I'd have any chance of grabbing Gonzo this late in the first round as I'd been seeing him consistently going in the 6-9 range in most drafts. 5 category production isn't easy to come by, and I'll gladly take it at #14
2.03 - Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, TOR
Another player that dropped later than I thought he would. Most drafts I've seen had him going in the first round, so to take him here made sense. I considered Kipnis, but Edwin has a longer track record of success. I like consistency with my early picks, and felt Edwin gave me that.
3.14 - Jean Segura, SS, MIL
Really hoped Bautista would make it this far. Not having that option, Segura looked like the last of the top SS's. Cargo + Segura should set me up nicely for steals, and Segura should provide above average R's and SLG (for a SS). Not in love with the player, but felt he made sense here.
4.03 - Ben Zobrist, 2B, TAM
Another pick I wasn't crazy about. In a down year (2013), Zobrist still provided above average OBP/R/RBI at a weak position, while playing 157 games. If he can return closer to 2011/2012 he'll be a steal here. Above average production at 4 of 5 categories and eligible at several positions.
5.14 - Alex Gordon, OF, KC
Really hoping for a bounce back year from AG. He was miscast as a leadoff hitter for KC last year, which definitely hurt his R's, and may have changed his approach from a very successful 2012. With KC signing (undrafted) to bat leadoff, Gordon should slot back into the 3 or 5 hold, hopefully allowing him to return as a solid 5 category OF.
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| 7 | VampireWeekend
ID: 362411110
Tue, Mar 11, 2014, 11:42
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1.03 - Paul Goldschmidt
Years ago I decided to reduce the number of leagues I was in and was successful at that for several seasons. Then my son noticed what I was doing one season and became very interested so I ramped things back up and we participated in several leagues with him being a major partner in who to draft, trades, etc.
Well...we have come full circle as he turned 16 in January and plays in leagues with friends, so I really should once again reduce the number of leagues I am in. However, I went the other way and now I am in too many leagues and I am not organized enough to keep things straight.
I had the good fortune this season to have the first pick in a couple of re-draft leagues and in a new keeper league so I have plenty of reasons to pay attention to Trout. For some reason, in this league, I decided to drop down from 1 and try someone else. I am an Andrew fan and was thinking him at 3 up until it was actually time to pick and I switched to Paul.
Still not sure why...though I expect excellent contributions across the board and I will not be doomed to AA because of this one pick...that will be due to the picks that follow...
2.14 - Shin-Soo Choo
On base machine who should not be negatively impacted by getting to play his home games in Texas. Should be a solid contributor,
3.03 - Alex Rios
I guess I just want to pay attention to the Rangers this year.
4.14 - Madison Bumgarner
Did not want to go too long before taking a solid pitcher. He should work just fine.
5.03 - Ian Kinsler
I guess I just want to pay attention to ex-Rangers this year. He should still be able to put up solid-enough numbers in a strong line-up.
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| 8 | KDogHall
ID: 5253109
Tue, Mar 11, 2014, 13:08
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Chase Headley (6.04)
My original hope was to take R. Zimmerman in round 5, but when he went at 4.07, I knew that wouldn't happen. I decided I probably needed to make a move on Seager or Headley since I felt like the 10 SBs would be needed. I decided to go with Headley primarily due to his spot in the lineup. It looks like Seager is going to bat 2nd which could mean great runs scored numbers, but I don't feel good about his RBIs there, while Headley is likely to bat 3rd or 4th. I also like that it's a contract year for him so I'm hoping he can approach 2012 numbers (although I don't expect 2012 to ever happen again).
Glen Perkins (7.13)
I was really wanting Matt Cain here, but oh well. I really don't like spending early picks on closers because they really only truly contribute to one category, but then again, they are the only players who can single handedly get your team 3-9 pts. I felt like there was a falloff in quality, but more importantly job security after Perkins, so he was my guy.
Mat Latos (8.04)
After the sting of losing Cain, I knew I still needed to grab pitching as I'm currently off to a very strong start with my lineup and need to commit some early picks to some low-risk pitchers. While Latos does have a knee injury, the fact that it was a 10-day recovery makes me think it wasnt much. Latos looks like a guy who has had great consistency who can get me good ratios with plenty of innings and wins on a good team.
Grant Balfour (9.13)
Knew I wanted to go closer here to solidfy having 2 and am hoping to be able to have three by the end of the draft. Balfour has his questions marks, but is on a team that is consistently getting up to 50 save opportunities and appears to give their closers long leashes (see Rodney last year).
Julio Teheran (10.04)
This was a tough one for me. My team NEEDS a 30+ steal guy so the logical decision was to go with that. However, I'm getting greedy and taking a risk because there are 4 speedy guys available that I like (Victorino, Bourn, Martin and Gardner). I KNOW that Teheran wont be around next round and think he could really strengthen this rotation. Odds are though that all 4 SB guys will get taken and I'll be mad at myself.
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| 9 | Toral
Leader
ID: 2111201313
Tue, Mar 11, 2014, 14:49
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No rationales for me this year, for the first time ever. In the midst of a move,...plus such activities as pushing a cracked toilet basin together in the middle of the night , holding tit ke a bear embracing a ... something... until the leak can be slowed enuf to stop flooding util a plumber could be got next day.
I should finish last everywhere...but you never know.
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| 10 | Judy
ID: 54203110
Sun, Mar 16, 2014, 11:54
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Pick #11. It was the highest one left. I do not like being on the turns.
1.11 Prince Fielder 1B TEX
Everybody knows you gotta take a first base basher in the first round. This helps greatly in SLG, RBI, and to a certain extent R. He was the 4th and final 1B taken in round one. I hope he likes his new home.
2.06. Adam Wainwright SP STL
Everybody knows you need a good starting pitcher. Adam will be the opening day pitcher for one of the strongest teams in the NL. He is a workhorse and is expected to provide >200 K, maybe 20 wins (!), and a nice WHIP. I'll bet Toral thought I was gunning for Lee who was taken the pick before. I wasn't. I don't think the Phillies will get him enough wins...
3.11. Adam Jones OF BALT
Everybody knows you need a bashing OF as well. Adam's projected stats are slightly less than Prince, but he should add a few more SLG, R and surely more SB than Prince. His team is getting primed to do well again. He was the 7th OF chosen. I left Giancarlo for blue hen.
4.07. Josh Donaldson 3B. OAK
Everybody knows you also need a basher at 3B. Not sure too many would consider this guy a basher as such, but ~25 HR projected is nothing to sneeze at to assist his SLG. His R and RBI match up well with those expected for Adam and Prince. Was also looking at Longoria but he went three picks sooner.
5.11. Elvis Andrus SS TEX
Torn a bit here between another basher and trying to round out other stats. Elvis should provide many steals and his R total should match up with my other three batters so far. It is also nice to grab another INF who will give some solid stats. He is the 7th SS drafted. I had hoped Desmond would drop but he went much sooner. I feel there are a lot of solid OF to grab later on. I am somewhat pleased with my initial draftees. I do not think I have had any of them before.
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| 12 | Pete
ID: 312471617
Sun, Mar 16, 2014, 21:23
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1.08 Jacoby Ellsbury
I'm a big believer that last year's holder of the #11 spot on the player rater is only going to improve upon last year, the move to Yankee Stadium could potentially send him back into the 20-30 HR range.
2.09 Ian Desmond
With my second pick I wanted to stay away from boom/bust and go for someone trustworthy. He stays healthy and I'm confident about yet another 20/20 season from Desmond. With his move to the two hole for the first time I expect to see an uptick in runs and steals.
3.08 Max Scherzer
This one was a no-brainer for me, last year's #2 pitcher on the player rater will anchor my rotation and I thought it was a great value at the 40th overall spot.
4.09 Yadier Molina
In last year's AA league I took Posey with my first pick, I got burned by that a little bit as he had a down year by his standards. I still believe in securing a strong catcher early. I'd love to see numbers closer to 2012 than 2013, but I'd be happy either way.
5.08 Jose Altuve
I took Altuve almost a full round before his ADP, but I think a full healthy year from Altuve in the two hole has the potential to produce a 75R-5HR-50RBI-40SB season, which would be a steal in the 5th round. At only 23 years old, I think he can still refine his game and get even better. Along with Ellsbury and Desmond, I think this pick solidifies a top finish in the steals category.
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