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Subject: RIBC AAA PCL 2014 RATIONALES #11-15
Posted by: Judy
- [54203110] Tue, Mar 11, 2014, 19:47
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| 3 | KDogHall
ID: 5253109
Thu, Mar 13, 2014, 13:15
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Nate Jones (11.13)
And after all that worrying and praying that the speedsters would all be gone, there are still 3 left that I would like, so I'm getting greedy again and taking the only closer I see left. I actually had Jones ahead of Hunter and Axford as Hunter doesn't have the K numbers you like to see in a closer and we've all seen Axford blow up the last two seasons. Very content to have a 3rd closer and if things go according to plan I should have lots of pts from saves or the ability to trade later in the year.
Leonys Martin (12.04)
This was an extremely hard decision between Bourn and Martin. On the plus side I am ecstatic to have this choice because last round I was almost positive I would regret taking Teheran and not a speedster. The fact that I have my choice of speedsters while also getting another closer is a massive win for me. On the other hand, this decision is very tough. I just can't see any reason why Bourn was so bad last year other than the league change. For that reason I almost have to assume Bourn is just a small guy that is starting to age and can't be tempted by the fact that he had 40+ steals only 1 season ago and 60+ 2 seasons ago. 60 steals would be a massive help but his RBI, OBP and SLG would be a major burden. Martin on the other hand is at least young and could continue to develop. He also is a little more of a balanced player and if I get lucky and draft some quality hitting depth I can use him as a platoon. We'll see how this one plays out.
Angel Pagan (13.13)
If Asdrubel had been there he would have been my pick. Just missed! Based on how things are playing out now I'm wondering if I should have just held off on drafting Leonys Martin and capitalized on all the cheap speed available late. Oh well. I'm really liking where this team is headed, but also acknowledge that I have massive injury risk. Pagan (when healthy) has put up consistent and high quality numbers out of the leadoff spot with 30 steal and 100 run potential.
Corey Hart (14.04)
We're at the point now where you have to guess which players will last and which ones wont. Not only the players you're wanting this round, but the players you're wanting 4 rounds from now. I originally hoped to get Hart in the 15th, but based on the fact that so many teams dont yet have a CR and my distaste for most options other than Hart, I felt it important to go for him here. He could very well bat 4th behind Seager and Cano and is 1 year removed from 3 consecutive .850 OPS years. Put that kind of production and SLG into a 4 spot and he could be very valuable. On top of that he should gain OF eligibility to give me flexibility there, especially sinec I just drafted ANOTHER injury prone player.
Marco Estrada (15.13)
Was bummed to see Aoki and Eaton fall as I was counting on them to get me the remaining 20 steals I felt I needed. So now it just comes down to who I think is the best available player at a position of need who I think wouldn't last another round. There never appears to be a correct answer. I at least had Garza and Estrada as the best available pitchers so I had to coin toss between the two of them. I went with Estrada mainly for the Ks and WHIP since that generally leads to better ERA. He doesn't generally pitch deep in games so that may give him very few wins, but the same can be said for (undrafted) and he has two 16-win seasons.
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| 4 | youngroman
ID: 57047243
Thu, Mar 13, 2014, 16:19
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11.02 Huston Street, RP, SD
It is very unusual for me to get this many closers that early., but I simply couldn't pass because the hitters available are all crap or sleepers that I think can wait a few more rounds to get drafted.
Street is the last closer with some sort of job security and above average stats in any category but wins (K, ERA and WHIP). all remaining closer candidates fail to meet at least one of these criteria, most of them fail because of the job security part.
maybe I can force others to draft one of the remaining (c)losers too early so that I get slightly better value for my picks in the next few rounds.
I now have 3 starters and 3 closers after 11 rounds. looking at some conservative projections they should net me 800 IP, 750 K, 3.3 ERA, 1.2 WHIP, 52 W, 100 SV
I better start drafting some hitters now.
12.15 Dexter Fowler, OF, HOU
I wanted Cuddyer here but of course he went 1 pick too early. next in line were Fowler and Venable. both because of their steals. since my SLG is currently high enough I can afford picking any of these 2, although something around .420 isn't too bad nowadays.
Fowler was still there so he joined my team.
13.02 Will Venable, OF, SD
as said before, I wanted his steals. I can now say that I don't need to look out for a speedster for the remainder of the draft.
Venable averages above 20 steals and out of nowhere also hit more than 20 HR's, although I don't count on him to match that power again. his career averages would be fine for me (.332 OBP/.431 SLG)
14.15 Josh Reddick, OF, OAK
I again thought of filling my hitting holes. I still need a OF, MI and CI in addition to C and Util that I want to get later. Since mjd is missing some OF's too I better take the outfielder first and the infielder at 15.02
about Reddick: compared to Fowler and Venable he is not that far off. there are not many options out there that provide average stats and who have some sort of job security. with a relatively short bench you need to have players that actually play to have a chance to get near to the games played limit which is always a goal for any position other than catcher.
15.02 Todd Frazier, 3B, CIN
looking at the available MI and CI candidates, Frazier is the best candidate for me. I am not a fan of players with below .300 OBP or below .400 SLG. that significantly reduces the player pool. if you also filter for players that are projected to get at least 450 AB you are down to 25 hitters. 12 of these 25 are eligible at CI and I think that Frazier is the best of them.
there are 2 MI that are both in the bottom 5 of that group so I thought that I could pass on them because they are likely to be still there 29 picks later.
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| 5 | MattG
ID: 161331619
Sat, Mar 15, 2014, 19:02
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11.06 Brad Miller 2b/ss - At this point I have the RPs that I'm happy with and it's time to start filling my position requirements. I like Brad Miller, he should win the job and he has 2 position eligibility which always helps. I've tried many different draft methods. I find going best available early and then filling needs late is the way to go. If you see a position going on a run and if there are gaps talent wise, it's good to grab that position.
12.11 Tony Cingrani SP - I like Tony to have an ERA under 3.5 and possibly 200Ks this would be a huge boost this late in the draft.
13.06 Michael Brantley OF - I didn't go heavy on the steals this year, I usually like a guy or two who should get 30 bags, instead I drafted a lot of guys who should get double digits in steals, brantley has burned me in the past. Hoping he has a full good year this year, and I really needed an OF at this point.
14.11 Alexei Ramirez SS - Middle infielder here, should steal 20+ and score 70 runs. If he gets his OBP above .320 he's very valuable.
15.06 Chris Archer SP - I wanted him in another league but I already had 2 pitchers from TB. Double Digit wins and 170+ K's He should be a guy I just leave in there for QS after QS
16.11 Yonder Alonso 1B - When is he going to break out? I've been waiting on him for years, just like Rizzo... He'll be my CI this year, 25+ hrs and a .340 obp is fine with me
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| 6 | Judy
ID: 54203110
Sun, Mar 16, 2014, 22:21
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11.11. Shane Victorino. OF BOS
Shane as a Phillie was always one of my favorite players. I was very sorry that the Phillies ever him go, especially how their OF looks now. I grabbed him mostly for speed, SB, and R stats. Hopefully the thumb surgery will fix the swing problem and I also hope he drops the idea of being a switch hitter.
12.06. Patrick Corbin SP AZ
Time for some more SP!
How sad for the kid. Torn UCL. I was counting on him to be a good source of good stats.
13.11. Tim Lincecum SP SFO
I have a complete INF plus another CI and 3 OF (forgot we use 4 -- oh well...), so I decided to look for some more pitching. Tim should continue his bounce back campaign. He is not the superstar he once was, but perhaps he is a wiser pitcher. He plays on a winning team so I will look for 190K, 10 W and hopefully not too high an ERA or WHIP.
14.06. Ervin Santana SP ATL
Decided to stay with the SP position. This could be considered a desperation move by Los Bravos, but with Medlin and the other guy (forget his name) going down, the ATL rotation looks pretty shaky. There won't be a lot of saves for Kimbrel if the starters stink. Santana is not a bad pitcher, he was just too expensive -- draft picks. I will hope he finds success in ATL: 160K, 12 W and decent ERA and WHIP.
15.11 Evan Gattis C ATL
All the great C were long gone by this round, but I felt it was time to grab someone. Gattis is an odd one given his career pathway. He is the 10th catcher taken. He has power for HR and will hopefully provide around 20 HR leading to a high SLG, and drive in 70/80 runs.
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| 7 | jaydog
ID: 33758520
Mon, Mar 17, 2014, 11:04
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11.14 - Chris Carter, 1B, HOU
Spending early picks on Zobrist and Segura, I felt my team needed an influx of power. Carter certainly gives me that. 30+ HR potential, batting in the middle of a (slightly) improved Houston lineup. Low average but high OBP definitely increases his value in this league.
12.03 - Brett Gardner, OF, NY
I almost took Gardner in the 9th round, and felt that I couldn't pass him up anymore. Steals were down last year for a reason that no one knows, but after signing a decent deal with NYY, he should have ample opportunity to get on base, and run. 40 steal potential in the 12th round, with an above average OBP and healthy number or runs scored made this pick a no brainer.
13.14 - Howie Kendrick, 2B, ANA
Was close to taking a MI in round 12, but with three that I was interested still on the board I decided to wait. Became very nervous when Asdrubal and Dozier went off the board, but luckily Kendrick survived. Solid producer across all categories, that should get a healthy number of at bats in an above average lineup.
14.03 - C.J. Wilson, SP, ANA
Given that my only two SP's will probably start the year on the DL (fingers crossed its a short stint), I'm beginning to get a bit panicked about filling out my staff. There are still several pitchers I like, but figured it was time to start chipping away. CJ Wilson should give me an above average ERA and K total, and his WHIP concerns balanced out by Iwakuma and Minor who should be elite in those categories. Felt Wilson was a stable, low risk, performer who balances well with the pitchers already on staff.
15.13 - David Freese, 3B, ANA
Have had a glaring hole at 3B for the first 14 rounds, and was on the verge of taking Freese, Frazier, or Dominguez in each of the last few rounds. Seeing Frazier go earlier in the 15th, I decided I better stop messing around. Between Freese and Dominguez, I felt Freese should provide a more stable OBP, and some decent counting stats in a solid lineup. I'd have been happy with either, and glad to be able to fill that hole. Just realized that my last 3 picks were all Angels, hope for a bounceback season from that team!!!
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