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Subject: RIBC AAA PCL 2014 RATIONALES #16-20
Posted by: Judy
- [54203110] Tue, Mar 11, 2014, 19:50
Almost there! |
| 1 | Kevin
ID: 1824321
Fri, Mar 14, 2014, 22:58
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Omar Infante (16.04)
Not a sexy pick at all but I only like 3-4 remaining MI and a lot of teams still do not have them yet so I can't expect any of them to be available when my next pick comes around. I was between Infante, K. Johnson and K. Wong. Johnson was mainly intriguing because he will be 3 position eligible and I'm still wondering if I should have gone with him due to all of the injury risk on my team. K. Wong is intriguing as a prospect with speed, but right now he is projected to bat 7th or 8th which just isn't going to get him the counting stats I'd like to see. Infante on the other hand will bat 2nd in a promising Royals lineup. At the very least with health that should get him 80 runs without killing me in the other categories. It's a safe pick but that was long overdue at this point.
Denard Span (17.13)
The choice was between Span and Willingham. I felt like I could find someone similar to Willingham in later rounds (and did with Ludwick) while there really aren't any leadoff hitters capable of 20+ steals left. If Span can get on base in front of Zimmerman, Harper, Werth and Laroche, the potential is there for 100+ runs.
Rick Porcello (18.04)
I was debating between Porcello and Kazmir here, and even after 19.13 he is still available, so I think I made the right pick here. At this point I need some innings and my team could be short on wins. I like that Porcello had a 3.50 FIP last year and has an improved defense behind him in addition to an elite offense. The potential is there for 15+ wins.
Ryan Ludwick (19.13)
Sure, he's another guy that will be hurt at some point, but he's also going to bat either 4th or 5th in Cincinnati. Batting between Joey Votto and Jay Bruce has it's benefits. Brandon Phillips got 80 runs and 100 RBI last year despite a .706 OPS in the 4th spot. I'll take those kind of counting stats all day and even more if he can pull of an OPS around .800
Miguel Montero (20.04)
Do I love having Montero? No. But do I see value here? I sure do. He's only 1 year removed from many years of consistent production. While I think he is on the downslope of his career, he's still only 30 and slated to bat 4th between Goldschmidt and Trumbo. Sounds pretty good to me. I found out last year that sometimes your spot in the order matters just as much if not more than your OPS. I was near the tops in the league in OPS yet near the bottom of the league in RBI and Runs because I had so many people batting in the 6 spot or later. At the very least I can platoon him or just drop him since there are multiple other catchers I still like.
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| 2 | MattG
ID: 161331619
Sat, Mar 15, 2014, 19:10
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I already included 16 in my 11-15? post... whoops. here are the rest.
17.06 Dan Straily - Was 3rd I believe in the rookie of the year voting in the AL last year? Oak is back to it's old self putting out solid SPs year after year. Isee big things from straily. I needed another SP here.
18.11 Drew Smyly - He went way early in a few of my drafts, he'll be starting every 5th game and that's a good thing for me looking for double digit wins and 150 ks from him.
19.06 Avisail Garcia - I waited too long to get my 4th outfield, I really wanted Miguel Montero here but having to get Avisail I missed him. Probably should have went with an OF at 18 and the miguel or an SP here. Either way, I think he puts up decent enough numbers for a 4th of double digit steals and 65+r and rbi.
20.11 Alex Avila - Backup Catcher, starting to get thin here so I needed to draft him since I missed on MM.
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| 3 | youngroman
ID: 57047243
Sun, Mar 16, 2014, 04:27
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15.02 Todd Frazier, 3B, CIN
looking at the available MI and CI candidates, Frazier is the best candidate for me. I am not a fan of players with below .300 OBP or below .400 SLG. that significantly reduces the player pool. if you also filter for players that are projected to get at least 450 AB you are down to 25 hitters. 12 of these 25 are eligible at CI and I think that Frazier is the best of them.
there are 2 MI that are both in the bottom 5 of that group so I thought that I could pass on them because they are likely to be still there 29 picks later.
16.15 Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL
I want to fill MI and SP with these 2 picks. since mjd already has a MI, the risk that he picks another one out of this crappy group was limited.
Gallardo was named the opening day starter a few minutes ago. he should provide some good K numbers and hopefully also some acceptable ERA/WHIP. depending on the projection source he either plays like a 3.75/1.27 guy or a 4.16/1.36 guy, so I better expect something in between: a sub 3.9 ERA and a WHIP around 1.3
17.02 Jordy Mercer, 2B/SS, PIT
the player pool at MI is dead, dead, dead. all available players are crap. actually not all of them. there is one player remaining and his name is Jordy Mercer.
Out of all national league players that got reasonable playing time he was 4th in AVG (.285), 4th in OBP (.336) and 4th in SLG (.435) behind some well known names (Tulo, Hanley, Segura). He should be the starter for the Pirates and as long as he keeps that production he will keep the job for the rest of the season.
18.15 Carlos Quentin, OF, SD
the last man in my queue was Colby Rasmus. He went at 18.12 so I need to look for someone else.
Carlos Quentin is far above average when healthy. At the moment he is healthy, so he is far above average to start the season. That is all I can ask for in the 18th round. Every team needs adjustments, but it is better if you need to replace the injury prone player from round 18 than the one from round 3.
19.02 Jesse Crain, RP, HOU
mjd already had 3 players with 3B eligibility. and he adds a 4th one. the one I considered as my 2nd pick this turn: Chris Johnson. should have taken him first and Quentin here.
no other hitter stood out for me, so I looked at pitching. the last time I checked Jesse Crain is still the closer for the Astros. he is the last #1 that is not yet drafted. Of course this has a reason and that reason is called injury. he will probably start the season on the disabled list, but should be the closer when he comes back, hopefully no later than May. when healthy he is one of the few remaining relievers that are expected to have a sub 3.00 ERA, a sub 1.20 WHIP and more than a K per inning. add all the potential saves and you have very good value for a 19th round pick.
20.15 James Loney, 1B, TB
again the target was to get a hitter and a pitcher. I looked at my depth and the only position, except catcher, where I don't have a 2nd eligible player is 1B. I felt that Loney is the best remaining option that should get significant playing time. other options I considered were Ike Davis and Mitch Moreland, but in the end the playing time secured Loney the job.
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| 4 | mjd
Dude
ID: 501381415
Sun, Mar 16, 2014, 14:08
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Roman, I did have Gallardo queued up at 16.16 and you should have taken Johnson first at the 18-19 turn, Quentin was not on my radar for those picks.
That said, it's been no picnic for me boxed in by you and VW.
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| 5 | Jaydog
ID: 366501612
Wed, Mar 19, 2014, 13:29
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16.04 - Corey Kluber, SP, CLE
Having filled all of my starting offensive spots, time to round out my staff. I was between Kluber and Lohse with this pick, and settled on Kluber's higher K rates. He's an older "prospect" so I'm not sure I can expect much more than last season, but if he gives me 30 starts of 3.85/1.26 w/ 180-200K's, he'll be a steal here.
17.14 - Kyle Lohse, SP, MIL
Almost grabbed Lohse in the 16th round so glad to see him available here. As steady as they come in ERA/WHIP, and has even seen a slight uptick in K rate over the past few seasons. Not expecting 140+ K's like he had in 2012, but even with 120K's, if he can provide me double digits wins w/ good ratio's, I think he's a great complement to my staff.
18.03 - Josh Willingham, OF, MIN
Although I have Chris Carter, who could have filled my final OF spot, I wanted to use Carter as my CR, meaning that I needed one more solid outfielder. Willingham is coming off a terrible year, but his high BB rate will soften that blow. Even in a bad 2013, his OBP was a still servicible 343. With his OBP floor limited, and a solid spot in the middle of the lineup, I'm hoping for a modest bounceback in his counting and power stats.
19.14 - Kendrys Morales, 1B, FA
In all honesty, these next two picks snuck up on me. I was out to dinner for my wife's birthday, and thought I had plenty of time to plan these next two picks. Little did I know I would hit the clock right as dinner started, and I had to scramble to come up with a solution. Morales was the first name that popped into my head. I realize he doesn't have a team yet, but assuming he gets signed to a team that provides enough AB's, he should be a tremendous value in the 19th round. May have to stash him on the bench until that happens, but he's too good a player not to find a home.
20.03 - Scott Kazmir, SP, OAK
Another scramble pick after the turn. I recalled seeing Kazmir's name close to the top of the strikeout projections for the remaining pitchers, and knew that after picking Lohse I could use some help there. His resurgance last year will hopefully continue, and moving to the friendly confines of Oakland's dump of a stadium will hopefully help out his ratio's while keeping up his very nice K totals. Looking back on the pick, I'm not sure there's a pitcher I liked more than him, so it seems like my panicked selection may actually work out.
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